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Author Topic: 《流浪地球》吸虹效应加剧,《疯外》28亿保底和星爷2.8亿元对赌咋办?  (Read 1757 times)

MarkFengZhi

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《流浪地球》吸虹效应加剧,《疯外》28亿保底和星爷2.8亿元对赌咋办?

文娱商业观察





                   

头图来自视觉中国。



文 | 浮萍


高开低走,春节档意外滑落。

继首日票房达到创纪录的14.34亿元后,第二天大盘就开始出现跳水,降至9.89亿元,完全不及去年同日的10.28亿元,截止到今天晚上十一点,春节档前三天总票房为33.46亿元,仅比去年同期的32.48亿元略高,完全不及预期。

对于这样的结果,市场认为高票价是主因。

资料显示,2019年春节档平均票价超过45元,相比于去年同期的39元,上涨超过15%,这对于非一线地区低频观影者而言,观影吸引力大为降低。

根据淘票票提供的大年初一观影数据显示,当天总观影人次为3174万人,同比2018年春节档下降2.7%,其中寄予厚望的三四线观众占比54%,与2018年同期持平,增长很显然处于停滞状态。




这意味着今年春节档的整体情况将不容乐观,在2019年最重要的一个档期,中国电影就将换挡减速。

《疯狂的外星人》不及预期,28亿天价保底恐失败

大年初三各影片的竞争格局基本已定。

备受关注《流浪地球》已经在今天正式超越《疯狂的外星人》,登顶单日票房冠军,以24.7%的排片获得了3.5亿元的单日票房,总票房也接近8亿元。随着口碑的持续发酵和路演的疯狂推进,排片和票房将持续上涨。




最新的票房预测是能够达到40亿的体量,远超外界预期。

而开画前一致看好的《疯狂的外星人》和《飞驰人生》虽然仍然属于第一梯队,能够拿到20亿+的票房,但是远不如外界所预期的那样,今年春节档喜剧电影将会全面失守。

虽然春节档电影市场不是零和博弈,但是《流浪地球》的高口碑、高排片和高票房对于其他几部电影都有着明显的吸虹效应,这也是《疯狂的外星人》和《飞驰人生》票房不及预期的另外一个重要原因。

尤其是《疯狂的外星人》,很可能无法完成保底的28亿元红线。

2018年7月5日晚间,香港上市公司欢喜传媒发布公告称,其投资出品的影片《疯狂的外星人》被霍尔果斯乐开花影业以28亿元的价格保底,欢喜传媒也因此提前锁定7亿元的收入。




外界感到震惊的不仅仅是28亿元的破纪录价格,还有保底方霍尔果斯乐开花影业竟然是王宝强的公司。

根据天眼查的信息,乐开花影业的法人代表和唯一股东是任晓妍,而此人正是王宝强的经纪人,同时也是王宝强的公司乐开花影视无锡传媒有限公司的CEO,担任《大闹天竺》的出品人。

王宝强作为大家心目中的喜剧演员,在个人发展道路上是受到认可的,但是影片的宣发,尤其是春节档头部影片的宣发是一个需要调动地面发行人员配合的重活,此前鲜有宣发经验的王宝强公司是无论如何都驾驭不了的。

外界都在猜测王宝强背后的推手是谁。

如今春节档已经开战,光线传媒作为主宣发方的真面目终于露出,外界猜测光线传媒很可能是王宝强28亿元保底背后的推手。

按照现在的票房走势,28亿元的保底恐无法完成,保底方将会遭受一定的损失。

《新喜剧之王》疯狂植入遭吐槽,星爷业绩对赌压力?

电影《疯狂的外星人》的持续走强,让观众对于片中抖音国际版Tik Tok的植入印象深刻。

在影片中交换基因球环节中,宇航员拍小视频闪光造成意外,外星人被激怒,接着被迫降到地球,故事进入正轨。

这是全片第一个植入广告,与剧情的结合程度较高而吐槽较少,也因为Tik Tok的国内用户较少,很难引起大众的关注,与之形成鲜明对比的是星爷的《新喜剧之王》因新氧、微视、58同城等植入生硬而遭吐槽。




“新喜剧之王,不难看,但不如不拍,简直是对情怀的玷污。有笑点,但是炒网络冷饭有点难受…最不能接受的是植入广告,腾讯微视和58真是low到爆,但凡这样硬生生插入广告的,都难以成为经典。”

更有大量的网友在微博上留言吐槽星爷缺钱才植入这么多生硬的广告。说者无心、听者有意,事实上星爷的确很缺钱。

 





2017年年初新文化斥资13.26亿元人民币购入周星驰旗下的制作公司PDAL的51%股权。双方约定,今后凡周星驰担当主创的项目,新文化均可通过此次投资的公司享有至少20%的优先投资权。

并且星爷的PDAL做出了高额的业绩承诺,承诺2016财年(截至2017年3月)、2017财年、2018财年、2019财年公司的净利润分别不低于1.7亿元、2.21亿元、2.873亿元和3.617亿元。

《新喜剧之王》就是在这样的背景下诞生的,新文化参与了投资,星爷没有参与2018年春节档的竞争,因此对赌业绩只能依靠这部电影,植入广告本来就可以作为回本的一部分。




按照目前的票房预测,《新喜剧之王》的最终票房落点在7亿元左右,创星爷近年来春节档的票房新低,最终片方的分账约为1亿元,仅靠这一部电影完成业绩对赌的可能性大为降低。

                                
                
                                           
                                                   

                           

                               
*文章为作者独立观点,不代表虎嗅网立场


                                                           
 

Source: 《流浪地球》吸虹效应加剧,《疯外》28亿保底和星爷2.8亿元对赌咋办?



 

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