中国进一步向台湾施压，两岸局势进入更危险时期

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中国进一步向台湾施压，两岸局势进入更危险时期

储百亮, AMY CHANG CHIEN2024年7月17日台湾总统赖清德直言不讳地拒绝了中国对该岛的主权要求。他对《时代》杂志说：“（中华民国）本身在国际法上就是一個主权独立的国家。” Sam Yeh/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe long-smoldering tensions between China and Taiwan have been entering a more precarious phase. In recent months, Beijing has threatened to severely punish Taiwanese citizens who challenge China’s claim to the island. More Chinese jets have buzzed the skies near it. Chinese Coast Guard ships have sailed near Taiwan’s outer islands.中国大陆与台湾之间长期存在的紧张局势已进入一个更危险的时期。近几个月来，北京已威胁要严惩那些挑战中国对该岛主权的台湾公民。越来越多中国战机在台湾附近的天空盘旋。中国海警船在属于台湾的外围岛屿附近航行。And both sides have dug deeper into their opposing political positions.双方在对抗的政治姿态上越来越拒不让步。When Lai Ching-te became Taiwan’s president in May, he vowed to stick with the China policies of his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen. Ms. Tsai sought to avoid confrontation even as she defended Taiwan’s right to self-rule and rejected Beijing’s assertion of sovereignty.赖清德今年5月就任台湾总统时曾保证坚持前任蔡英文在两岸问题上的政策。蔡英文在寻求捍卫台湾自治权、拒绝北京主权主张的同时，也力求避免冲突。Yet Mr. Lai, while keeping Taiwan’s basic policy toward China unchanged, has been blunter in rebuffing its demands. Ms. Tsai, a former trade law specialist, chose her words about China with care. Mr. Lai, who rose as a more plain-spoken politician, sees a need to more sharply lay out Taiwan’s separate status.虽然赖清德保持了台湾对大陆的基本政策不改变，但他在拒绝中国主张上一直更直言不讳。蔡英文曾是一名贸易法专家，在谈到有关中国的问题时措辞很谨慎。赖清德则作为一名说话更为直白的政治人物而崛起，他认为有必要更明确地阐明台湾的独立地位。“In his judgment, there’s nothing to be gained from being ambiguous — the conclusion is that Beijing is going to press them, no matter what,” said David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations who analyzes relations between Taiwan and China.“在他看来，含糊其辞不会得到任何好处，他的结论是，北京无论如何总会向他们施压，”美国外交关系委员会的亚洲问题研究员、专门分析两岸关系的戴维·萨克斯说。“For decades, cross-strait relations really lay on ambiguities and not saying what you really think, but I think that a lot of that is being eliminated,” Mr. Sacks said. “There’s less room for maneuverability.”“几十年来，两岸关系一直处于模棱两可的状态，不把话挑明，但我认为，这种状态在很大程度上正在被消除，”萨克斯说。“机动灵活的余地越来越小。”This shift does not mean that war or regional crisis looms. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is focused on fixing its economy and has indicated that he wants to keep tensions with the United States, Taiwan’s security partner, in check. Chinese leaders also still hope to absorb Taiwan peacefully, and they have maintained contacts with the island’s opposition Nationalist Party, which favors closer ties with Beijing.这种变化并不意味着战争或地区危机即将来临。中国领导人习近平的注意力在恢复经济增长上，他表示要管控紧张的中美关系，后者是台湾的安全伙伴。中国领导人也仍想和平收复台湾，他们一直与台湾的反对派国民党保持着联系，后者倾向于与北京建立更紧密的关系。But China’s pressure tactics are likely to present Mr. Lai with hard choices about how and when to push back or exercise restraint.但中国向台湾施压的做法可能会让赖清德在如何及何时反抗或保持克制上面临艰难的选择。这是台湾海巡署发布的一段视频的截图，画面左侧是台湾海巡船，它上周在金门岛附近水域追踪一艘中国船。“In this new chapter, it’s like the tensions become the norm,” Chen Kuan-ting, a lawmaker from Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party, said in an interview.“这个新的chapter（篇章）就是这样，紧张常态化，”立法委员陈冠廷在接受采访时说，他来自赖清德所在的民进党。“Trying to contain us and squeeze us tighter, trying to get us like this,” Mr. Chen said, bracing his arms into a tightening hold. “It’s not a hug.”“更加围堵紧抓着，他想要把我们这样，这样子是台湾在中间，”陈冠廷用交叉的双臂把自己紧紧锁住说道。“不是hug（拥抱）。”Taiwan’s leader speaks his mind.台湾领导人说出了心里话。Mr. Lai is the second president in a row from the Democratic Progressive Party, which has turned to Western partners to hold China at bay.赖清德是让民进党连续执政的第二位总统，该党为了不让台湾被中国并吞，已转向西方伙伴。A former mayor and lawmaker, Mr. Lai rose in the defiant traditions of his party. Even before Mr. Lai’s election, Beijing reviled him for describing himself in 2017 as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan’s independence,” words meant to signal that he would defend Taiwan’s autonomy without pursuing formal independence.赖清德曾担任市长和立法委员，他在民进党的反抗传统中逐步上升。早在赖清德当选总统之前，北京已对他在2017年把自己描述为“务实的台独工作者”进行了谴责，他用这个说法意在表明，他将捍卫台湾的自治，但不会追求正式的独立。Still, officials in Beijing seemed taken aback by how starkly he drew a line between Taiwan and China in his high-profile May inauguration speech, several analysts said.不过，几名分析人士表示，北京的官员们似乎对赖清德今年5月在备受瞩目的就职演说中如此清楚地把台湾与中国划清界限感到吃惊。In the speech, Mr. Lai asserted that dialogue with Beijing is only possible if the two sides negotiate as separate equals, not — as Beijing wants — based on the idea that each side accepts that it is part of one Chinese nation.赖清德在演说中坚称，与北京对话只能是在双方以平等身份谈判的情况下才有可能，而不是像北京希望的那样，在双方都承认自己是中国的一部分的基础上。在金门岛一家餐馆观看赖清德就职演讲的民众，摄于今年5月。Past Taiwanese presidents have also said that China and Taiwan should treat each other as distinct equals. But Beijing took more umbrage this time, partly because he said so in his inauguration speech, a manifesto for his four-year term, said Bonnie S. Glaser, an analyst of Taiwan and China at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.过去的台湾总统也说过，中国和台湾应该以平等的方式相互对待。但北京这次更生气，部分原因在于赖清德是在就职演说中做上述表述的，那是他四年任期的执政纲领，美国德国马歇尔基金会的台湾和中国问题分析师葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说。“He just wanted to convey clearly that the two sides of the strait — they’re two separate states,” Ms. Glaser said. “He wants to, basically, begin his four years setting that as the base line, and telling the Chinese that they have to accept it.”“他只是想清楚地表明，海峡两岸有两个不同的政府，”葛来仪说。“他大体上想在他四年执政开始的时候把这个作为底线，并告诉中国人他们需要接受这个底线。”In an interview with Time magazine, Mr. Lai set out his position: “According to international law, we are already a sovereign and independent country.”赖清德在接受《时代》杂志采访时阐述了自己的立场：“（中华民国）本身在国际法上就是一個主权独立的国家。”He wants Taiwan’s military to be better prepared.他想让台湾的军队做好更充分的准备。Mr. Lai’s supporters say his clearer position is part of an effort to bring more urgency to building up Taiwan’s resilience against threats from China.赖清德的支持者们说，他更明确的立场是为了让台湾更加紧迫地增强抵御中国威胁的能力。His new defense minister, Wellington Koo, has signaled that he wants to shake up the armed forces. He started by putting an end to ceremonial formalities like goose-step marching in parades.他新任命的国防部长顾立雄已表示要改组军队。他采取的第一步是取消了在阅兵式上正步走等仪式性东西。Mr. Lai has vowed to continue Taiwan’s military buildup, and some experts argue that the island should lengthen conscription — already extended recently to 12 months — to amass enough well-trained troops to deter Beijing.赖清德做出了保证，要继续加强台湾的军队建设，一些专家认为，台湾应该延长征兵服役的时间（服役时间最近已经延长到12个月），让台湾军队有足够多的训练有素人员，以威慑北京。台湾去年夏天举行的军事演习。赖清德已承诺继续加强台湾的军队建设。While China’s leader, Mr. Xi, has dismissed speculation that he has a plan to invade Taiwan in the coming years, many Taiwanese officials are convinced that their island will be vulnerable unless it quickly steps up preparedness. The upcoming presidential election in the United States adds another element of unpredictability to the tensions.虽然中国领导人习近平一直不予理会有关他打算在未来几年入侵台湾的猜测，但许多台湾官员深信，除非迅速加强备战状态，否则台湾将极易受攻击。即将到来的美国总统大选给紧张局势增添了另一个不可预测的因素。“The situation is heading in the direction of greater conflict,” I-Chung Lai, the president of the Prospect Foundation, a think tank affiliated with the Taiwanese government, said at a seminar in Taipei this month. “Fundamentally, we can’t see any final balancing point.”“实际上这个状况是在往一个更大的一个冲突的方向在走，”台湾政府下属的智库远景基金会执行长赖怡忠本月在台北举行的研讨会上说。“而且基本上我们也看不到最终的一个平衡点。”China is putting the squeeze on Taiwan.中国正在向台湾施压。More than 300 Chinese military aircraft flew near Taiwan in June, the second-highest monthly count since Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense began regularly issuing such data in 2020, according to PLATracker, a site that analyzes the data.据相关数据分析网站PLATracker，今年6月在台湾附近出没的中国军机达300多架次，这是自2020年台湾国防部开始定期发布这类数据以来的第二高月份。China has sent groups of coast guard ships into waters off Kinmen, a Taiwan-controlled island near the Chinese coast, more than 30 times in recent months, eroding a longstanding understanding against such incursions. The forays began after two Chinese fishermen died in the area in February, when their boat capsized as they tried to flee the Taiwanese Coast Guard.中国已派出多批海警船进入靠近大陆一侧、但由台湾控制的金门岛水域，打破了双方长期以来针对这种侵入的共识。今年2月，中国渔船试图在该水域逃避台湾海警时倾覆，导致两名渔民死亡。中国海警船是在那之后开始进入该水域的，近几个月来已超过30次。Chinese military officials have said that they will not be letting up.中国军方官员已表示，他们不会放松努力。“If Taiwan independence tries to take one step forward, we‘ll take one step forward with our retaliatory measures, until full unification of the motherland is achieved,” Senior Col. Wu Qian, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of National Defense, said in a brief interview last month in Singapore.“台独只要往前走一步，我们的反制行动会向前推进一步，直至实现祖国的完全统一，”中国国防部发言人吴谦大校上个月在新加坡接受简短采访时说。For all that military swagger, Chinese leaders seem concerned that their warnings are not having the desired effect on opinion in Taiwan, said Lyle J. Morris, a senior fellow in the Center for China Analysis under the Asia Society. “I see increasing worry that Beijing’s levers of influence over Taiwan are narrowing,” he said, citing comments from Chinese officials.尽管在军事上做出充满信心的姿态，但中国领导人似乎担心，他们的警告没有对台湾舆论产生预期的效果，亚洲协会中国分析中心的高级研究员莱尔·莫里斯说。“我看到越来越多的人担心，北京对台湾施加压力的手段在减少，”他引用来自中国官员的话说。That anxiety, Mr. Morris added, seemed to partly motivate China’s release of legal guidelines last month that raised the threat of imprisonment — even execution, in extreme cases — for people deemed to be “Taiwan independence die-hards.”莫里斯补充说，这种担忧似乎在一定程度上促使中国在上月发布了一项法律，威胁将对被其视为“‘台独’顽固分子”的人处以监禁，甚至在极端情况下处以死刑的惩罚。金门岛的一个海滩上布满了抵御中国入侵的旧防御工事。中国城市厦门与这里隔海相望。Chinese law had already banned pro-independence activity, but the new guidelines went into greater detail about the prohibited conduct and the potential punishments.中国的法律已禁止了支持台湾独立的行为，但新法律对被禁行为和可能的惩罚做了更详细的说明。In response, Taiwan warned its citizens not to travel to China unless necessary. Mr. Lai also spoke out about the new rules.台湾对新法律做出回应，警告其公民除非必要，否则不要去中国旅行。赖清德也对这项新法律发表了看法。“Democracy is not a crime; autocracy is what’s truly malicious,” he wrote on social media. “Once again, I urge China to choose dialogue with Taiwan’s democratically elected government.”“民主无罪；专制才是真正的邪恶，”他在社交媒体上写道。“我再次呼吁中国选择与台湾的民选政府对话。”储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，在台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。Amy Chang Chien是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道台湾和中国新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。  https://feedx.run

Source: 中国进一步向台湾施压，两岸局势进入更危险时期