Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

What Order Imbalance Is and How It May Be Applied in Trading


Grasping the dynamics of order imbalances may help traders interpret shifts in asset prices. By highlighting the real-time tug-of-war between supply and demand, order imbalances offer valuable market insights. In this article, we explore what drives these imbalances and outline a practical approach within the framework of a trading strategy.

Understanding Order Imbalances
Order imbalance, a fundamental concept in forex, crypto*, commodity, and stock markets, refers to a situation where there is a disproportionate number of buy or sell orders for a particular asset. This imbalance of orders can significantly influence asset prices, pushing them up or down depending on the direction of the imbalance. Known also as fair value gaps, they offer a window into the underlying supply and demand dynamics shaping the market at any given moment.

A market imbalance occurs when there's an overwhelming interest from buyers (buy-side imbalance) or sellers (sell-side imbalance) without enough opposite-side orders to match. This scenario typically reflects the market participants' consensus about the asset's future direction.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Hidden Divergence Vs Regular Divergence: Basics and Examples


Divergence is a popular tool for spotting potential shifts in market direction. While the general principles for identifying divergence are straightforward, distinguishing between regular and hidden forms can be more complex. In this article, we outline the main differences between regular and hidden divergence and demonstrate how traders may interpret their signals using practical examples.

What Is Divergence?
In technical analysis, the term divergence has two meanings. You may have heard of the MACD indicator. It's an abbreviation for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. In this case, divergence stands for the movement of two lines relative to each other – they move away from each other. Convergence occurs when the lines move closer together.

The second meaning relates to the topic we will discuss in this article – how the price and the indicator relate to each other. Traders look for divergence between the price and an oscillator, like the relative strength index, stochastic, awesome oscillator, or MACD. It occurs when the market forms an extreme high or low, but the indicator doesn't follow.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Attempts Recovery While USD/JPY Corrects Gains


EUR/USD is recovering losses from 1.1540. USD/JPY is correcting gains from 153.20 and might decline further below 151.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today
- The Euro struggled to stay in a positive zone and declined below 1.1650 before finding support.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1590 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/JPY rallied significantly before the bears appeared near 153.20.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 151.55 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from 1.1720. The Euro declined below 1.1650 and 1.1600 against the US Dollar.

The pair even declined below 1.1565 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it tested the 1.1540 zone. A low was formed at 1.1541, and the pair is now recovering losses. There was a move above 1.1600 and a connecting bearish trend line at 1.1590.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Falls from Above $4,200


The XAU/USD chart shows that gold recently climbed above the $4,200 mark for the first time. The upward momentum has been supported by the ongoing US government shutdown, central bank demand (with reports highlighting a sharp rise in reserves at the Reserve Bank of India), and market focus on US–China trade developments.

According to Trading Economics, on Tuesday President Donald Trump accused China of "economically hostile" behaviour, citing a halt in soybean imports, and warned of potential retaliatory measures.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Structure Shift (MSS) in ICT Trading: the Concept and Application


In ICT (Inner Circle Trader) methodology, Market Structure Shifts (MSS) provide a framework for understanding how price action evolves. Recognising these shifts may help traders identify potential turning points in trends and build strategies. This article explains the role of MSS, its signals, and how it connects with concepts such as Breaks of Structure and Changes of Character.

Breaks of Structure and Change of Character: Starting with the Basics
Comprehending the dynamics of Breaks of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) can be crucial for analysing market trends. A Break of Structure occurs when price levels move beyond established support or resistance areas, indicating a potential continuation or acceleration of the current trend. For example, in an uptrend, a BOS is identified when prices break above a previous resistance level, suggesting further upward movement.

Conversely, a Change of Character signifies a possible shift in the market's direction. This occurs when the price action breaks against the prevailing trend, challenging the recent high or low points that served as market barriers. A CHoCH often raises a red flag about the sustainability of the current trend. For instance, in a sustained uptrend, a CHoCH would be marked by a significant downward breach that violates a previous low point, hinting at a weakening of bullish momentum.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Triangle Pattern: Construction Rules and Trading Strategies


Markets often pause before making their next significant move, and triangle patterns are one of the signs of this consolidation. By studying symmetrical, ascending, and descending triangles, traders may anticipate breakouts and plan entries or exits. This article explains how traders construct these patterns and incorporate them into their trading strategy.

What Are Triangle Chart Patterns?
Triangle chart patterns are a common technical analysis tool used to understand price movements in financial markets. These patterns form when the price of an asset moves within two converging trendlines, creating a triangle shape on a chart. The lines represent support and resistance levels, and as they get closer together, it signals a potential breakout in one direction.

Symmetrical, ascending, and descending are three types of triangle patterns. Each of these patterns reflects a different market sentiment, with symmetrical triangles showing indecision, ascending triangles suggesting a bullish bias, and descending triangles hinting at bearish momentum. These formations are considered useful because they may help traders spot potential breakouts, where the price might move sharply up or down after a period of consolidation.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Euro and Pound Rebound Ahead of Key Data Releases


The euro and the pound have found some support after a series of declines, although neither has yet managed to break convincingly above key resistance levels. The market remains in anticipation of fresh fundamental signals that could confirm or challenge a potential trend reversal.

Traders' focus is now on forthcoming UK economic reports, including GDP, industrial production, and trade balance data. In the euro area, attention will turn to figures on the trade balance and Italian inflation, as well as the Bundesbank's monthly report. The upcoming IMF meeting is also likely to attract interest.

During the US session, markets will be watching construction and manufacturing data from the Philadelphia Fed. These figures could influence the dollar's direction and set the tone for the remainder of the trading week. The market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments: upbeat data from Europe or the UK could support the euro and sterling, while strong US figures may restore pressure on European currencies.

GBP/USD

For GBP/USD, the technical outlook remains mixed. As expected, the pair continued its downtrend early in the week, testing the 1.3300–1.3330 range and posting a new October low at 1.3260. On the H4 timeframe, a "bullish engulfing" pattern has formed.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD suggests potential upside towards 1.3450–1.3490. If buyers fail to defend the 1.3330–1.3360 support area, a retest of recent lows cannot be ruled out.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/CHF Falls to Two-Week Low


This morning, the USD/CHF exchange rate slipped below 0.7944 for the first time since 1 October, as demand for safe-haven assets intensified — a trend also reflected in yesterday's record gold price above $4,200.

The traditionally stable Swiss franc is strengthening amid rising global uncertainty and risk aversion:
→ In Japan, the upcoming prime ministerial election could significantly impact monetary policy, while France faces ongoing political turmoil.
→ In the United States, the government shutdown continues, and traders are closely watching developments around a potential trade deal with China, possibly to be discussed during an expected meeting between the two countries' leaders.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Earnings Season Kicks Off with Strong Bank Results


On 3 October, we noted growing optimism in equity markets ahead of the corporate earnings season. That sentiment was validated yesterday as several major banks reported results that exceeded analysts' expectations, helping the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rebound from last Friday's sell-off.

Morgan Stanley (MS) led the rally, with its shares hitting a new all-time high above $166 following a robust quarterly report:

→ Revenue surged to a record $18.2 billion, up 18% year-on-year.

→ Earnings per share (EPS): actual $2.80, vs forecast $2.10.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

What Is Trendline Breakout Trading?


Trendline breakouts play an important role in price chart analysis. However, not every break of a trendline carries the same weight. Some may signal genuine shifts, while others prove temporary. In this article, we will explore how to assess, confirm, and trade trendline breakouts while trying to keep risk under control.

Understanding Trendlines
Although you know what trendlines are, let's briefly go over the subject. Trendlines are tools used in technical analysis to visualise the direction of price movements. Drawing accurate trendlines involves selecting the appropriate highs and lows to connect, so they provide a clear representation of the prevailing trend. According to the established rules, there should be at least two highs/lows to draw a strong trendline. The more points you connect, the more solid the line is supposed to be.

There are trendlines in forex, stock, commodity, index, and cryptocurrency* charts. Still, trendlines on charts of assets experiencing less price volatility may be more solid.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/CAD Hits 16-Year High


Charts show that the euro strengthened against the Canadian dollar on Thursday, with the pair climbing above 1.6460 for the first time since spring 2009, when the world was still reeling from the global financial crisis.

The current weakness of the Canadian dollar is being influenced by several factors:

→ Trade relations with the United States – according to media reports, some Canadian industries such as steel and automotive manufacturing are facing competitive disadvantages under the current agreement.

→ Oil prices have fallen to a five-month low, partly due to expectations surrounding a potential meeting between the US and Russian presidents. As we noted on 13 October, the XTI/USD exchange rate could drift towards $55 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the euro has benefited from the softening of the US dollar. Notably, the DXY index has turned lower from a key resistance level — the upper boundary of the channel identified in our 9 October analysis.

However, an examination of the EUR/CAD chart suggests that the current upward momentum may be losing steam.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Coinbase (COIN) Shares Fall for Fifth Consecutive Day


As shown on the Coinbase Global (COIN) chart, the company's share price has dropped below $330, marking a 17% decline from this month's high.

Bearish sentiment took hold last Friday after Donald Trump floated the idea of imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods:
→ Since then, the cryptocurrency market has struggled to find support.
→ Today, BTC/USD fell below $106,000 for the first time since early July.

COIN shares look set to extend their sequence of five consecutive bearish daily candles, as broader equity markets remain under pressure amid reports of losses at several regional US banks — a situation that some analysts are already comparing to the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in 2023.

The Coinbase (COIN) price chart provides further important insight.





Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Recover, Are Gains Just Getting Started?


AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6440. NZD/USD is also correcting losses and might recover if there is a clear move above 0.5760.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6440 and is now recovering against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6490 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
- NZD/USD is attempting a recovery wave above 0.5700.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.5720 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair dipped from well above 0.6600. The Aussie Dollar declined below 0.6500, but the bulls were active near 0.6440 against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 0.6440, and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the 0.6612 swing high to the 0.6440 low. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6490.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Index Shows Elevated Volatility


On the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the ATR indicator with standard settings has not fallen below the 30 mark, signalling higher current market volatility compared to previous periods. Traders' decisions are being influenced by the ongoing government shutdown, developments around a potential US-China tariff deal, and an increasingly active earnings season. Market sentiment has also been shaped by renewed concerns over regional bank stability and profit-taking in AI-related stocks.

Looking ahead, the new week is also expected to bring heightened volatility, as:

→ US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to meet in the coming days, paving the way for a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi later this month.

→ Attention will also turn to quarterly results from Netflix, Coca-Cola, Tesla, IBM, and Intel. With key US economic data releases suspended due to the government shutdown, investors are likely to look to corporate earnings for direction.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Prices Fall to Yearly Lows


As shown on the XTI/USD chart, WTI crude is trading below $57 today, with the 2025 low sitting near $55. Several factors are currently weighing on oil prices:

→ Uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade deal — the world's two largest oil consumers — continues to cloud the outlook for global growth and crude demand.

→ Increased output from OPEC+ members has added further pressure, with the IEA last week raising its forecast for a global oil surplus.

→ A decline in the risk premium following the peace agreement in the Middle East has also reduced support for oil prices.

So, what could happen next?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.