Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Rises 2.3% Since the Beginning of August


As the EUR/USD chart shows today, the euro has strengthened against the US dollar, climbing above the 1.1670 level, compared to the 1.1400 area at the beginning of the month.

Why Is EUR/USD Rising?

According to Reuters, the US dollar's weakness is being driven by:

→ Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which intensified following last week's disappointing US labour market data.
→ Anticipation of the upcoming US inflation report, scheduled for release on 12 August at 15:30 GMT+3.

On the other hand, the euro is being supported by growing optimism around a possible resolution of the military conflict in Ukraine, as well as the potential meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Problems of Technical Analysis


Trading is a complex endeavour that involves many factors. The ability to analyse markets is something that allows traders to overcome trading difficulties. Technical analysis is widely used by traders to make informed decisions about the price movements of various assets, including stocks, currency pairs, and cryptocurrencies*.

Technical analysis and trading are inextricably linked, but while this method provides valuable insights, it also comes with a set of challenges. This FXOpen article discusses the challenges associated with technical analysis and suggests how traders can effectively overcome these challenges.

VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Apple (AAPL) Shares Surge to Four-Month High


According to the AAPL price chart, the stock rose to the $220 level yesterday – marking its highest point since early April.

The rally was fuelled by several bullish factors:

→ Trade developments: President Trump announced an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, but notably excluded smartphones – a key point, as a significant portion of iPhones are manufactured there.
→ Seasonal momentum: Apple is approaching its historically strong period. A new iPhone model is traditionally unveiled in September, followed by the start of the holiday shopping season and strong retail demand.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Nikkei 225 Index Rises Towards the 42,000 Level


As the chart indicates, the Nikkei 225 stock index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) has today risen to the 42,000 mark, which is just below its all-time high.

Among the bullish drivers:
→ Corporate news. Strong quarterly results were reported by Sony Group and SoftBank.
→ Trade agreement developments. Positive news flow surrounds a potential tariff agreement between the United States and Japan, which could be finalised in the near term. According to Reuters, the Japanese government stated on Thursday that the US has pledged to adjust overlapping tariffs on Japanese goods to avoid double taxation.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD & NZD/USD Much Higher—Uptrend Shows Strength


AUD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6480 and 0.6500 levels. NZD/USD is also rising and might aim for more gains above 0.5970.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above the 0.6450 level against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6530 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD is consolidating gains above the 0.5940 zone.
  
• There is a short-term declining channel forming with resistance at 0.5960 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6450 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6470 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6500 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6540 zone. A high was formed near 0.6541 and the pair recently started a consolidation phase.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Declines Amid Easing Geopolitical Tensions


It has been announced that a meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Russia will take place this week. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are expected to meet in Alaska. This will mark the first face-to-face talks between the leaders of the two major powers since 2021, when Putin met with Biden in Geneva.

The upcoming meeting is widely seen as a potential step towards ending the full-scale military conflict in Ukraine, which began in 2022. Anticipation of the talks is easing geopolitical tensions, which is reflected in today's downward movement of the gold price, visible on the XAU/USD chart.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

What Is Symmetrical Distribution, and How Do Traders Use It?


Symmetrical distribution is a key concept in market analysis, helping traders assess price behaviour and volatility. When price movements are evenly distributed around a central point, it can provide insights into potential market trends. This article explores what symmetrical distribution is, how it compares to other price patterns, and how traders use it in strategies like mean reversion to refine their market approach.

What Is a Symmetric Distribution?
The symmetric distribution definition states that data points are evenly spread around a mean, meaning price movements exhibit balance over time. In simple terms, if price movements form a symmetrical shape when plotted on a chart, it suggests that past price behaviour has been balanced, with roughly equal deviations on either side of the average. This balance is supposed to help traders analyse price trends and volatility.

One of the most well-known symmetrical distribution examples is the normal distribution, often visualised as a bell curve. In markets, this means prices are more likely to cluster around the average and become less frequent as you move further away. For example, if a stock has a mean daily return of 0.5%, most days are believed to see returns close to that figure, while extreme price moves—both positive and negative—will be much rarer.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 11 - 15 August

Market Insights with Gary Thomson: RBA Rate, US Inflation, UK Jobs & GDP, Earnings Reports

In this video, we'll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let's dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week's most critical events driving global markets.

👉 Key topics covered in this episode:
— RBA Interest Rate Decision
— US Inflation Rate
— UK Unemployment Rate
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— Trade Tensions
— Earnings Reports

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.




Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

What Is the ARIMA Prediction Model, and How Can You Use It in Trading?


ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) is a statistical model used to analyse time series data, making it a popular tool in financial markets. Traders apply ARIMA to assess historical price trends and identify structured patterns in market movements. This article explains how ARIMA works, its strengths and limitations, and how it can be integrated into trading strategies for a deeper analysis of price behaviour across different assets.

Understanding ARIMA
ARIMA stands for autoregressive integrated moving average, a widely used model for analysing time series data. It's particularly useful in financial markets because it helps traders break down price movements into patterns based on historical data. To understand how ARIMA works, it's important to look at its three components:

• Autoregressive (AR): This part captures the relationship between a current value and its past values. For example, if the price of an asset today is influenced by its price over the last few days, that's an autoregressive process.
  
• Integrated (I): Many financial time series exhibit trends, making them non-stationary (meaning their statistical properties change over time). ARIMA "integrates" the data by differencing it—subtracting past values from current ones—to make it more stable for analysis.
  
• Moving Average (MA): Instead of focusing on past prices, this component looks at past errors—how much previous values deviated from expected trends—to refine the analysis.
  

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Tesla (TSLA) Shares Break Above July High


As the chart indicates, Tesla (TSLA) stock is demonstrating a pronounced upward trend. Specifically, its price:
→ has risen for four consecutive days;
→ has moved above its July high;
→ has gained over 10% since the start of August.

Why Is TSLA Rising?
Among other factors, TSLA's share price is being driven by:

→ News that Tesla has extended the estimated delivery time for the Model Y from one–three weeks to four–six weeks (according to Barron's). This may signal an increase in orders, boosting market optimism after the first two quarters showed a notable decline in electric vehicle sales.

→ Statements from Elon Musk regarding the development of the robotaxi project. According to him, Tesla's robotaxi service will be publicly available next month. Musk also noted that Tesla has achieved several additional breakthroughs in artificial intelligence that will make car control remarkably similar to that of a human driver.

Can TSLA continue to rise?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Nikkei 225 Index Sets All-Time Record


As the chart shows, the Nikkei 225 stock index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) rose today to the 43,000-point level, thereby:
→ surpassing its 2024 peak;
→ setting a new all-time high.

Bullish sentiment has been driven by strong quarterly earnings reports from Japanese companies and expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. Optimism was further reinforced by news of extended trade negotiations between the United States and China. According to Reuters, the decision to prolong the tariff truce between the world's two largest economies by a further 90 days has improved the outlook for global trade.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

What Is Value at Risk, and How Do Traders Use It in Trading?


Value at Risk (VaR) is a widely used risk metric that helps traders and institutions estimate potential losses over a given timeframe. By quantifying downside risk, VaR provides a structured way to assess exposure across different assets and strategies. This article explains the VaR definition, how it's calculated, and how traders use it in real-world markets to refine risk management.

What Does VaR Stand For?
So what is Value at Risk? Value at Risk, abbreviated to VaR, is a statistical measure used to estimate how much a trader, portfolio, or institution could lose over a set period under normal market conditions. It provides a single risk figure, making comparison of different assets, portfolios, or strategies more straightforward.

VaR is defined by three key components:

• Time Horizon – The period over which the potential loss is measured, such as one day, week, or month.
  
• Confidence Level – Expressed as a percentage, typically 95% or 99%, indicating the probability that losses will not exceed the calculated VaR amount.
  
• Potential Loss – The estimated maximum amount or percentage that could be lost within the given timeframe, based on historical or simulated market movements.
  

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: Gold Pulls Back While WTI Crude Oil Struggles In Red


Gold price started a fresh decline below $3,380. WTI Crude oil is also down and remains at risk of more losses below $62.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher toward the $3,410 zone before there was a sharp decline against the US Dollar.
  
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $3,355 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• WTI Crude oil prices extended losses below the $65.00 support zone.
  
• A major bearish trend line is formed with resistance at $63.05 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
  

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price climbed above the $3,380 resistance. The price even spiked above $3,400 before the bears appeared.

A high was formed near $3,409 before there was a fresh decline. There was a move below the $3,380 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below the $3,350 support and the 50-hour simple moving average.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Euro and Pound Rise Following Release of US Inflation Data


The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs continue to move higher, responding to weaker-than-expected US inflation figures and sustained demand for European currencies. Yesterday, the US dollar depreciated against the euro and the pound after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a slowdown in consumer price growth in July. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7%, whereas the consensus forecast anticipated an acceleration to 2.8%. The decline in inflation was largely driven by a 9.5% year-on-year drop in petrol prices. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased to 3.1% (forecast = 3.0%), reflecting rising costs in services such as airfares, healthcare, and leisure.

Following the release, US Treasury yields declined, and interest rate futures priced in a 95% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, compared to 85% before the report. Political factors also weighed on the dollar — including the ongoing trade policy of Donald Trump's administration and mounting criticism of the Fed.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Index Reaches New All-Time High


The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) set a new all-time high, climbing above the 6,460 mark. The rally in equities is a direct result of yesterday's CPI report.

According to Forex Factory, the annual CPI remained at 2.7%, whereas analysts had forecast an increase to 2.8%. Moderate inflation readings provide stronger grounds for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut — a move President Trump has been strongly advocating.

Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now price in a 94% probability of a key rate cut in September, compared to nearly 86% the day before and around 57% a month ago. This prospect of monetary policy easing acts as a bullish driver for the stock market.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.