Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

Euro and Pound Lose Support Amid Strong US Data and Inflation Expectations


European currencies remain under pressure: EUR/USD and GBP/USD continue their decline, reflecting the strengthening influence of the US dollar. Last week, US inflation data exceeded forecasts: the Producer Price Index (PPI) and University of Michigan inflation expectations both rose, signalling persistent price pressures in the economy. This factor reinforced the dollar's position and increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a more cautious stance on monetary easing.

Additional support for the dollar came from labour market data, which confirmed employment resilience. Together, these developments limit the scope for aggressive rate cuts. Against this backdrop, the euro and pound remain vulnerable ahead of their own inflation releases in the coming trading sessions.

EUR/USD


The inability of EUR/USD buyers to hold above 1.1720 has led to the formation of a tower top reversal pattern on the daily chart. Technical analysis suggests the possibility of a deeper downward correction if the price consolidates below 1.1580. A break of this bearish scenario could occur following a firm move above 1.1720.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Tech Stocks Face Sell-Offs


As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) fell by approximately 1.6% yesterday.

According to media reports, bearish sentiment has been fuelled by the approach of key events:
→ the release of the FOMC meeting minutes (today at 21:00 GMT+3);
→ Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Market participants are preparing for remarks from the Fed Chair on the trajectory of interest rates.

Notably, the S&P 500 declined less significantly, while the Dow Jones remained virtually unchanged. This suggests that:
→ tech stocks are heavily overvalued due to AI-driven hype;
→ capital shifted yesterday from risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) into so-called safe havens.

Could tech stocks continue to decline?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Coinbase (COIN) shares fall to a 2-month low


According to the chart of Coinbase Global (COIN), the stock price of the cryptocurrency exchange is sliding towards the $295 level, a 2-month low.

It is worth recalling that last month we reported that COIN stock had surged to an all-time high around $400. At that time, we:
→ highlighted the long-term grey channel and the short-term blue one;
→ suggested a potential correction from the upper boundary of the grey channel.

Since then, COIN's share price has declined by more than 20% (yesterday's drop was fuelled by a broader risk-off sentiment in technology stocks, which we analysed earlier today in the context of the Nasdaq 100 index). If this is indeed a correction from the all-time high, it looks too deep for a bull market. Could COIN shares extend their decline?



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

What Is Stock Index Rebalancing, and Why Does It Matter for Traders?


Index rebalancing is a routine adjustment that helps keep stock market indices aligned with their intended structure. It affects stock weightings, trading volume, and market movements, creating both potential opportunities and risks for traders. In this article, we will explain index rebalancing, its impact on markets and CFDs, and what traders may consider when these adjustments take place.

What Is Index Rebalancing?
So what does rebalance mean in the context of an index? Index rebalancing is the process of adjusting the composition of an index to keep it aligned with its intended structure. Indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and FTSE 100 follow specific rules about which companies are included, how they are weighted, and when adjustments take place. Rebalancing ensures an index continues to represent its target market or sector accurately.

The process typically involves adding or removing stocks and adjusting weightings based on factors like market capitalisation, sector representation, or liquidity. For example, if a company in the S&P 500 is acquired or no longer meets the inclusion criteria, it will be removed and replaced with another company. Similarly, if a benchmark is weighted by market cap, stocks that have significantly grown or declined in value may see their weightings adjusted.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

AUD and CAD Under Pressure: Markets Await Signals from Powell and the Fed


Commodity currencies, particularly the Australian and Canadian dollars, remain under pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, as investors await signals from Jerome Powell on the future trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Adding to the uncertainty were the recently released FOMC minutes: most Committee members expressed concern about accelerating inflation amid tariff policies and are not ready to rush into easing. At the same time, for the first time since 1993, two members advocated a 25 bps rate cut. Meanwhile, markets are closely monitoring fresh inflation data in Canada and US business activity indices, which could fuel volatility and provide short-term guidance for USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

AUD/USD


The AUD/USD pair approached the July highs earlier this week. Technical analysis of AUD/USD suggests a possible strengthening of the downtrend should the pair firmly consolidate below 0.6400. On the daily timeframe, several bearish candlestick patterns (bearish engulfing and three black crows) have formed, with their completion potentially paving the way for a test of key support levels at 0.6340–0.6380. At the same time, sharp pullbacks and false breakouts of these levels could occur, with a subsequent return to 0.6440–0.6460. The pair has been declining for the second consecutive week, and given the corresponding fundamental backdrop, a corrective rebound remains possible.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

NZD/USD Holds Near Four-Month Low


As today's NZD/USD chart shows, the pair is trading near a four-month low following a sharp decline. The drop occurred yesterday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 3.0% and indicated that the rate could fall further to 2.55% by May 2026.

According to Trading Economics:
- Analysts now expect at least two additional rate cuts before the end of the year;
- There is a risk of deeper cuts depending on incoming economic data.

New Zealand's exports are also under pressure, particularly due to the 15% US tariffs that came into effect earlier this month, threatening to undermine the country's competitiveness in key markets. According to Reuters, Citi analysts expect GDP to contract in the second quarter, raising the risk of a recession in New Zealand.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Shares Plunge Below $150


Shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR), a company specialising in big data analytics software, delivered an unpleasant surprise to investors:
→ just last week, the stock was trading at its all-time high of around $190;
→ yesterday, the price collapsed below $150. At yesterday's intraday low, PLTR stock had dropped almost 25% from its record peak.

Why Did Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Stock Fall?

Bearish sentiment may have been driven by:
→ capital rotation from risk assets into so-called defensive stocks ahead of the Federal Reserve Chair's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium (as we reported yesterday);
→ growing speculation that a "bubble" is forming in the technology sector, which could burst.

According to Investor's Business Daily, Andrew Left, founder of Citron Research, bet on downside in PLTR, arguing that the stock is severely overvalued following its phenomenal 340% rally in 2024.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

What Does Beta Mean in Stocks, and How May It Be Used in Risk Management?


Beta is a key measure of how a stock moves relative to the market, helping traders assess risk exposure and price volatility. Understanding this indicator can help traders analyse potential price swings and portfolio stability. This article explores how beta works, its implications, and how it may be used in risk analysis.

What Is Beta in Stocks and How Does It Affect Risk?
Beta is a statistical measure that quantifies how a stock's price fluctuates relative to the broader market. It helps traders analyse systematic risk—the kind that affects most stocks at the same time, such as economic downturns or interest rate changes. The number itself comes from regression analysis, which compares a stock's potential returns to a benchmark index like the FTSE 100 or S&P 500.

A beta of 1.0 indicates that a share generally tracks the movements of its benchmark index. If the index gains 5%, a stock with a value of 1.0 is likely to rise by about the same amount. A beta above 1 signals greater volatility—company shares with a beta of 1.8 may rise 9% when the market gains 5%, but they also tend to fall more sharply during downturns. A value below 1 suggests lower volatility, with the asset moving less than the broader index.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

US Dollar Index (DXY) Rises Ahead of Fed Chair's Speech


On Monday, we:
→ noted that the US Dollar Index (DXY) was consolidating at the start of a week packed with key events;
→ outlined a descending channel (shown in red);
→ highlighted that the price was trading around the channel's median line, signalling a balanced market;
→ suggested that a test of one of the quarter lines (QL or QH), which divide the channel into four parts, could take place.

As the DXY chart indicates, since then the balance has shifted in favour of buyers, with the price forming an upward trajectory (shown in purple lines) and breaking through short-term resistance R (which has now turned into support, as marked by the blue arrow). Support line S remains relevant.

Today brings the key event that may have the greatest impact on the US Dollar Index (DXY) this week – Jerome Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

This appearance is particularly significant because:
→ it is likely to be Powell's last speech after seven years as Fed Chair, with his term expiring in May amid ongoing tensions with President Trump;
→ market participants will closely monitor the tone of his remarks, as a rate cut is expected in September, while recent economic data – namely the rise in the Producer Price Index – suggest that the US economy could face renewed inflationary pressures due to Trump's tariffs.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

FTSE 100 Index Closes at an All-Time High


Earlier, when analysing the chart of the UK's FTSE 100 stock index (UK 100 on FXOpen), we outlined an ascending channel and anticipated a scenario with a continued upward trend and an attempt to establish a new historical high.

Since then:
→ The index has risen by almost 5%. The channel structure has shifted slightly, but not dramatically – after adjustment, it remains relevant given the latest price dynamics.
→ Yesterday, the stock index climbed to 9,325, thereby setting an all-time high.

Bullish sentiment was supported by news of a shrinking public sector deficit and increased private sector output. How might the situation develop further?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Start Recovery, Key Hurdles Ahead


AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from 0.6415. NZD/USD is also rising and could aim for a move above 0.5900 in the short term.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6415 and moved higher against the US Dollar.
  
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6440 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD is slowly moving higher above 0.5830.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5870 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6415. The Aussie Dollar started a significant increase above 0.6425 against the US Dollar to enter a short-term positive zone.

There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6440 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6568 swing high to the 0.6415 low. The pair even surpassed 0.6470 and settled above the 50-hour simple moving average.

On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level at 0.6490. The first major hurdle for the bulls could be 0.6520.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Australian Dollar Surges Sharply


As illustrated by the AUD/USD chart, while the pair was trading near a two-month low at the start of Friday, today it has jumped by more than 1.1%.

The primary driver behind this rally is the weakening US dollar, which reflects the market's reaction to Jerome Powell's comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium. He stated that the risks of declining employment are rising. And if these risks materialise, it could happen very quickly. According to Reuters, this strengthens the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at its meeting next month.

At the same time, market participants are preparing for the release of Australia's CPI data, scheduled for this Wednesday.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

What Is Systematic Risk and How May It Affect Markets?


Systematic risk affects all traders, no matter the strategy or asset class. It comes from market-wide forces—like interest rates, inflation, or geopolitical shifts—that influence entire sectors at once. Unlike unsystematic risk, it can't be avoided through diversification. This article breaks down what systematic risk is, how it's measured, and how traders may incorporate it into their analysis.

What Is Systematic Risk?
Systematic risk refers to the kind of risk that affects entire markets or economies, rather than just individual assets. It's the result of large-scale forces—like inflation, interest rates, central bank policy, geopolitical conflict, or economic slowdowns—that ripple through multiple asset classes at once.

A sharp rise in interest rates, for example, tends to push bond prices lower and can drag down equity valuations as borrowing costs climb and consumer spending slows. Similarly, during a global event like the 2008 financial crisis or the COVID-19 shock in 2020, almost all sectors saw simultaneous drawdowns. These events weren't tied to poor management or bad earnings reports—they were macro-level shifts that hit everything.

Because it's a largely undiversifiable risk, systematic risk is a key consideration for traders assessing overall market exposure. It often drives correlation between assets, particularly in times of stress. This is why equities, commodities, and even currencies can start to move in the same direction during periods of heightened volatility.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Is It Possible to Define the Probability of an Effective Trade?


Traders are constantly trying to figure out the secret of effective trading. However, the inherent unpredictability of markets minimises the ability to accurately determine the probability of an effective trade. This FXOpen article focuses on the many variables that contribute to the dynamism and uncertainty of financial markets. Let's consider why it is impossible to estimate the chance of lucky trade and what can be done instead.

Why Is Defining Trading Outcomes Difficult?

Trading involves a multitude of variables, which make it challenging to define the probability of an effective trade. Economic indicators, earnings reports, news releases, and geopolitical events all contribute to trading results.

Economic indicators that reflect the state of the economy are subject to revisions and unexpected changes. Geopolitical events, from political tensions to trade agreements, can quickly change the market trajectory. Market sentiment, influenced by news, social media, and psychological factors, introduces a human element that cannot be accurately quantified. That's why it's a challenge to define probability in trading.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Dollar in Balance: Correction or the Start of a New Impulse?


The major dollar pairs, particularly USD/JPY and USD/CAD, remain in a zone of uncertainty. On Friday, the US currency came under pressure following the dovish rhetoric of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he effectively opened the door to a potential rate cut as early as September. On Monday, the market saw a technical correction, though the move has yet to show resilience — the dynamics will largely depend on incoming data. An additional factor weighing on the greenback is concern over the Fed's independence amid criticism from President Donald Trump, which further limits investor confidence in the dollar.

In the coming sessions, market participants will closely monitor US releases: consumer confidence index, regional Fed indices, as well as the updated GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed. These figures could determine the short-term trajectory: confirmation of economic weakness might strengthen expectations of an imminent rate cut, while stronger data might support the dollar and trigger a continuation of the corrective move.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues to trade within the previously identified range of 146.60–148.60. On Friday, sellers attempted to break support at 146.60, but by Monday the price had stabilised above 147.00. Technical analysis of USD/JPY indicates a sideways trading pattern. A firm move below 146.60 could open the way for a test of the nearest support levels at 145.80–146.20.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.