Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Index: Latest Analysts’ Forecasts


Over the three spring months, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) rose by 3.5% – not the worst result, but it might be disappointing considering that in the first two months of the year the index increased by 7.8%.

This trend suggests that:
→ the rally driven by interest in AI is slowing down;
→ stock market participants are concerned that Fed rates will remain high.

What could be the scenarios for future developments until the end of the year and beyond?

The media publish fresh forecasts on the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) price from Wall Street analysts:

→ MarketWatch: Analysts at JP Morgan believe that the growth potential is exhausted and the market may “hit a wall” preventing further growth. They maintain a forecast that the index value at the end of 2024 will be 4200 points.

→ MarketWatch: Experts at Wells Fargo think it would be too optimistic to expect stocks to reach new record highs ahead of the US elections in November; however, further growth related to the election results looks likely in 2025. They estimate the index could reach a record 5700 points by the end of next year.

→ BusinessInsider: According to Capital Economics, the index could rise if Treasury yields fall and the momentum from AI adoption remains strong. Their forecast is 6500 points by the end of 2025, followed by a sharp correction in 2026.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Is ADBE Stock Undervalued?


The stock chart for Adobe Systems shows that on May 31, 2024, the price fell below $440 – for the first time since June 2023. This drop was partly due to increased competition from Canva, which released updated tools.

However, in early June, the decline did not continue, suggesting that ADBE stock is consolidating around a multi-month low.

Since the beginning of the year, ADBE has decreased by approximately 23%, while the NASDAQ index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has increased by more than 12%. Is this indicative of serious problems for the company or is the stock undervalued?

A significant amount of information will come from Adobe Systems' earnings report, which will be released on June 13, 2024. According to Yahoo Finance.

The company's earnings per share are forecasted to be $4.38, representing a 12.02% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
Revenue is forecasted at $5.28 billion, a 9.65% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
It is noteworthy that since December 2018, Adobe has consistently exceeded expectations (though this has not always led to a rise in the stock price).

According to TipRanks, the average price target for ADBE stock is $624.83 over the next 12 months, indicating a potential upside of +39.36% from current levels – suggesting that most analysts do not believe the company has deep internal issues, as otherwise they would not be forecasting such price growth.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The Price of Silver Is Acting Weaker Than Gold


According to Reuters, precious metal prices have risen in the past 1-2 days as Treasury yields have fallen, enhancing metals' appeal as a "safe haven" for investor portfolios.

Currently:
→ Expectations are growing that US interest rate cuts may begin as early as September;
→ Market participants are focusing on non-farm employment data and other US market data, set to be released on Friday at 15:30 GMT+3.

In this context, it is notable that the gold market is clearly stronger than silver.

The XAU/USD chart shows that the price of gold today rose above $2370 per ounce, a high not seen since 23 May, more than 10 days ago.

Meanwhile, the price of silver experienced a decline of over 8% from 29 May to 4 June. Today’s rise appears to be an attempt by bulls to offset this bearish momentum, during which the price of gold remained stable.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The Dollar Continues Range-bound Trading Ahead of US Employment Data


Despite a busy start to the current five-day period, major currency pairs remain near previously reached extremes. Here’s what happened in recent trading sessions:

• The US ISM manufacturing PMI data was released (worse than expected: 48.7 vs. 49.
• The ADP employment report was released (worse than expected: 152K vs. 173K)
• The Bank of Canada meeting resulted in a 0.25% cut in the base interest rate to 4.75%

USD/CAD

According to the technical analysis of the USD/CAD pair on the daily timeframe, range-bound trading between 1.3740-1.3590 prevails. The price has remained within this corridor for over four weeks, making it difficult to predict the future direction without a decisive breakout. Currently, a bounce from the upper boundary is observed, and with an appropriate news impulse, a retest of 1.3610-1.3590 can be expected. Key upcoming events to watch:

• Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00): Initial jobless claims in the US
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT +3:00): Change in non-farm payrolls in the US (forecast: 185K)
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT +3:00): Change in full employment in Canada

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/CAD Analysis: Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rate by 0.25%


This occurred yesterday and was in line with analysts' forecasts, according to a Bloomberg survey.

According to statements from the Bank of Canada:
→ Price growth indicators for consumer price index components have further decreased and are close to their historical average;
→ Recent data has increased confidence that inflation will continue moving towards the 2% target;
→ Monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive.

At the press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem stated that there is “compelling evidence” of weakening inflation and it is “reasonable to expect” further rate cuts if inflation continues to slow.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: Gold Price Gains Traction, Crude Oil Price Rises


Gold price started a fresh increase above $2,350. Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $78.40 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a decent increase from the $2,315 zone against the US Dollar.
• A major bullish trend line is forming with support at $2,368 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above the $74.30 support.
• There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $73.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed support near the $2,315 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a fresh increase above $2,340.

The bulls even pushed the price above the $2,350 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded as high as $2,385. The price is now consolidating gains near the $2,385 zone and the RSI is above 70.

Initial support on the downside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,315 swing low to the $2,38 high at $2,368. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at $2,368.

The first major support is near the $2,350 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,315 swing low to the $2,38 high. If there is a downside break below the $2,350 support, the price might decline further.

In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,342 support. Immediate resistance is near the $2,385 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,392 level. An upside break above the $2,392 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,400. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,420 level.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Analysis: ECB Cuts Interest Rate for First Time Since 2019


By its decision, the ECB followed the example of the Bank of Canada, which lowered interest rates by 0.25%, as we reported yesterday. Consequently, this trend might continue with the Federal Reserve, marking the development of easing monetary policy cycles in Western economies.

According to ForexFactory:
→ the interest rate had been at 4.50% since September 2023;
→ it was reduced to 4.25%;
→ the reduction was accurately predicted by experts.

According to CNBC:
→ the ECB forecasts inflation at 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025;
→"Based on an updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission, it is now appropriate to moderate the degree of monetary policy restriction after nine months of holding rates steady," stated the ECB Governing Council.

Given that the rate cut was anticipated, the EUR/USD rate hasn't changed significantly today, despite a noticeable spike in volatility.

Analysing the EUR/USD chart on 30 May, we highlighted the importance of the 1.08 level.

Since then, the bulls have shown the ability to bounce off this level and rise to 1.09.





Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Analytical NVIDIA Stock Forecast for 2024, 2025 – 2030, and Beyond


NVIDIA's stock has seen remarkable growth, driven by advancements in AI, data centres, and emerging technologies. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of NVIDIA’s stock outlook for 2024, 2025, and the next decade. Join us as we explore detailed insights into the company’s financial performance, strategic initiatives, and potential in new markets like autonomous driving and the Internet of Things (IoT).

NVIDIA’s Recent Price History

NVIDIA Corporation, founded in 1993, went public in 1999 with an initial share price of $12. Note that, adjusted for the multiple splits NVDA has undergone, this is equivalent to $0.4375—we’ll refer to the split-adjusted price from here.

The company quickly made a name for itself in the graphics processing unit (GPU) market, and its stock saw steady growth through the early 2000s.

Early 2000s to 2015: Building the Foundation

Throughout the 2000s, NVIDIA expanded its product line, targeting both gaming and professional markets. Significant milestones included the release of the GeForce 256 in 1999, often considered the world's first GPU.

The company's stock price rallied in the dot-com bubble, cresting $6 in 2001. After sinking to a low of $0.60 in 2002, NVDA began a long uptrend, peaking at $9.92 in 2007, just before the 2008 financial crisis sent it plummeting back to $1.44. Continuing to expand its presence in the GPU arena over the years, NVIDIA’s stock rebounded, closing 2015 at $8.24.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Watch FXOpen's 3 - 7 June Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: S&P 500, US Dollar, Gold and Silver, MSFT Shares

Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

• S&P 500 Index: Latest Analysts’ Forecasts
• The Dollar Continues Range-Bound Trading Ahead of US Employment Data
• The Price of Silver Is Acting Weaker Than Gold
• MSFT Shares Surge on Record Yearly Volumes

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.



FXOpen YouTube


Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/GBP Rate at 21-Month Low Post-European Parliament Elections


Investors will begin the week in a state of uncertainty regarding the outlook of Europe's political landscape.

The four-day European Parliament elections concluded on Sunday. According to Reuters, the results showed a significant gain for eurosceptic-nationalists, who have displaced liberals and greens.

Additionally, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French Parliament, calling for early legislative elections later this month after losing to Marine Le Pen's far-right party in the European Union elections.

All this puts pressure on the structure of the European Union, weakening the euro's value.

As shown by the EUR/GBP chart, trading on the currency markets opened on Monday around the 0.8465 level—a price not seen since August 2022.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Drops After US Employment Report


As per ForexFactory, the Non-Farm Employment Change report revealed an actual increase of 272 thousand jobs (expected = 182k, previous value = 165k).

A robust job market provides further arguments for the Federal Reserve to continue its tight monetary policy. Consequently, the news led to a rise in the dollar index and a decrease in assets denominated in US dollars:
→ Currencies depreciated; for instance, the NZD/USD rate decreased by approximately 1.5%;
→ Cryptocurrencies declined; Bitcoin dropped by roughly 3%;
→ Gold also decreased in price.

The situation worsens for the gold price with the news that China has stopped buying the metal for reserves after doing so for 18 months. According to ING, China's appetite showed signs of weakening in April when the central bank purchased only 60,000 ounces compared to 160,000 ounces in March.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Goldman Sachs Predicts a Rise in Brent Crude Oil Prices


According to CNBC, Goldman Sachs analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices should increase in the third quarter due to summer fuel demand leading to a “significant” deficit—approximately 1.3 million barrels per day. They forecast that the price of Brent could rise to $86 per barrel with a “ceiling” around $90.

This implies an approximate +7% increase from current levels and a continued rise from the low set on 4 June. How realistic is this?



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

AAPL Shares Drop Following the Apple Intelligence Presentation


Yesterday, 10 June, at the WWDC2024 conference, the American corporation Apple unveiled its new artificial intelligence system, Apple Intelligence (AI).

Apple Intelligence will allow users to enhance their text and communicate more effectively: rewriting, proofreading, and summarising text almost everywhere, including in mail, notes, pages, and third-party applications. The Rewrite function will enable changing the tone of messages, adding jokes, and rephrasing sentences.

Key features include:
→ AI's capability to understand the user's "personal context."
→ AI's ability to generate unique photos, sketches, and illustrations in Notes, Freeform, and Pages.
→ Apple confirmed its collaboration with OpenAI during the presentation.

However, on the same day, AAPL shares fell nearly 2%, with high trading volumes on the Nasdaq—over 97 million shares were traded, compared to an average volume of about 59 million.

Is this a sign that investors were disappointed with the presentation? Looking at AAPL’s stock chart today, it suggests that the decline might be due to the significant $195 level per AAPL share.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dives While USD/JPY Continues To Rise


EUR/USD gained bearish momentum below the 1.0810 support. USD/JPY is rising and might take out the 157.40 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0810 support zone.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0760 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 155.25 and 156.25 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 156.85 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0900 resistance zone. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.0810 support zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even declined below 1.0760 and tested the 1.0720 zone. A low was formed near 1.0719 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0901 swing high to the 1.0719 low at 1.0760.



There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0760 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next key resistance is near the 1.0780 level.

The main resistance is 1.0810 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0901 swing high to the 1.0719 low. A clear move above the 1.0810 level could send the pair toward the 1.0860 resistance.

An upside break above 1.0860 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0900. If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0720.

The next key support is at 1.0680. If there is a downside break below 1.0680, the pair could drop toward 1.0650. The next support is near 1.0620, below which the pair could start a major decline.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

FTSE 100 Index Declines After Labour Market News


The British stock index FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) dropped nearly 1% yesterday due to the release of economic data indicating a rise in unemployment.

According to ForexFactory:
→ The Claimant Count Change (number of unemployment benefit claims) was 50,000 (expected = 10.2k, previous month = 8.4k). This is the highest number since March 2021.
→ The unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4% compared to the previous value of 4.3%.
However, today the FTSE 100 (UK 100 on FXOpen) chart is showing signs of recovery.

Fundamentally:
→ GDP news did not bring any unpleasant surprises;
→ Weakening in the labour market might prompt the Bank of England to lower the interest rate to stimulate the economy, which should support the stock index.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.