This is not financial advice, only compilation of what happened to be in the past.

The Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar (AUD/USD) is one of the most actively traded “commodity–major” currency pairs. It reflects the relative strength between the Australian economy (commodity-driven, export-oriented) and the US economy (largest global financial center). Traders value it for its clean trends, reaction to macro data, and strong ties to global risk sentiment. (See also: 7 major Forex pairs)

1. Core Identity of AUD/USD

Commodity Currency Behavior

AUD is highly correlated with key commodity prices:

• Gold
• Iron ore
• Copper
• Coal

Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of these commodities—so when commodity prices rise, the Australian Dollar often strengthens.

Risk Sentiment Sensitivity

AUD is a “risk-on” currency:

• Strengthens when markets take risk (stocks up, VIX down)
• Weakens when fear rises (risk-off, USD strengthens)

This makes AUD/USD heavily influenced by equity markets, especially S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Asian equities.

2. Recurring Market Events That Move AUD/USD

1. RBA Interest Rate Decisions (Monthly – Usually Tuesday, GMT0 03:30–04:30)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets the tone for AUD movement.
RBA themes affecting AUD:

• Inflation trajectory
• Wage growth
• Housing market risk
• Labor market cooling/overheating
• China demand outlook

RBA meetings produce consistent volatility spikes.

2. US Federal Reserve (FOMC) – Major Impact

Because AUD/USD contains USD as the quote currency, FOMC decisions have enormous influence.

Watch:

• FOMC rate statements
• Powell speeches
• CPI, Core PCE, NFP

USD strength often dominates commodity FX pairs including AUD/USD.

3. Australian Employment Data (Monthly – GMT0 00:30)

The employment report is one of AUD’s top-moving events.

AUD reacts sharply to:

• Change in Employment
• Unemployment Rate
• Full-time vs part-time balance

4. Australian CPI (Quarterly – GMT0 00:30)

Unlike most economies, Australia releases CPI quarterly, making each print extremely impactful.

Higher-than-expected CPI → strong AUD (tighter RBA policy expectations).
Lower-than-expected CPI → weaker AUD.

5. China Data (Recurring Monthly Events)

China is Australia’s top trading partner.

High-impact Chinese data:

• GDP
• Manufacturing PMI
• Caixin PMI
• Industrial Production
• Iron Ore price changes

Weak Chinese economic indicators often drag AUD down.

3. Daily Timing Characteristics (GMT0)

AUD/USD has a distinct personality throughout the trading day.

Asia Session (23:00 – 06:00 GMT) – Highest Natural Volatility

AUD is a regional currency, so:

• Liquidity is highest here
• News from Australia, China, Japan hits during this session
• Strongest trending behavior often occurs here

Most consistent movements: 00:00–04:00 GMT

Europe Session (07:00 – 12:00 GMT) – Mixed Behavior

• Liquidity increases, but AUD/USD sometimes consolidates
• Reversals are common after large Asia session moves
• London fix can cause spikes but generally less predictable

US Session (13:00 – 20:00 GMT) – Macro Driven

The US session produces:

• Larger volatility
• Reaction to USD news: CPI, NFP, PPI, Fed speeches
• Trend continuation or trend breakdown from Asia

AUD/USD becomes more correlated to S&P500 during these hours.

4. Price Behavior Patterns Observed Across AUD/USD

1. Strong Trends on Commodity Surges

When gold, copper, or iron ore surge:

• AUD/USD uptrends cleanly
• Pullbacks tend to be shallow

Commodity rallies often produce predictable AUD strength.

2. Heavy Reaction to Risk-Off Events

AUD/USD is often the first major pair to drop when:

• Equity markets crash
• Global recession fears spike
• US Dollar Index strengthens rapidly

AUD weakness can be sudden and deep.

3. Reversal Patterns After Overextended Moves

AUD/USD is known for:

• Daily mean reversion tendencies
• Snapping back after exaggerated moves during Asia session

Scalpers and day traders often exploit this.

4. News-Driven Breakouts Are Very Strong

AUD/USD reacts violently to:

• CPI
• RBA meetings
• China data surprises

This pair is cleaner than GBP or USD/JPY during economic releases—less prone to manipulative whipsaws.

5. Other Important Things Traders Should Know

1. Highly Correlated Pairs

AUD/USD is strongly correlated with:

• XAU/USD (Gold) → Positive correlation
• NZD/USD → Positive
• USD/CAD → Mild negative correlation (commodity influence)

This helps in confirming macro trends.

2. Leverage and Volatility Considerations

• AUD/USD is less volatile than GBP/USD or USD/JPY
• Volatility spikes only during news releases
• Often used by beginners for its clean patterns

3. Spread and Liquidity

• Low spreads during Asia session
• Extremely liquid, especially around Australian/Chinese data
• Ideal for both day trading and swing trading

4. Seasonal Behavior

AUD tends to perform well during:

• Commodity boom cycles
• Early-year risk rallies (January effect)
• Chinese stimulus periods

Weak during times of:

• Global recessions
• US rate-hike cycles
• Commodity downturns

Summary for Traders

AUD/USD is a commodity-driven, risk-sensitive, trend-friendly major pair.
It moves cleanest during the Asia session, responds strongly to Australian and Chinese data, and reacts predictably to commodity price shifts and risk-on/risk-off sentiment.

It is excellent for:

• Trend traders
• News traders
• Swing traders
• Macro-based analysts

But requires caution around:

• FOMC days
• China economic slowdowns
• Sudden commodity price shocks

(See also: 7 major Forex pairs)