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Author Topic: 美国,懦弱的恶霸  (Read 55 times)


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on: March 09, 2019, 12:07:53 AM

保罗·克鲁格曼2019-03-07 17:57:20特朗普总统的贸易好战行为对美国的声誉造成了持久的损害。
This is the way the trade war ends. Not with a bang but with empty bombast.这就是贸易战结束的方式。不是轰轰烈烈,而是空话连篇。According to multiple news organizations, the U.S. and China are close to a deal that would effectively end trade hostilities. Under the reported deal, America would remove most of the tariffs it imposed last year. China, for its part, would end its retaliatory tariffs, make some changes to its investment and competition policies and direct state enterprises to buy specified amounts of U.S. agricultural and energy products.据多家新闻机构报道,美国和中国即将达成一项实质上结束贸易敌对状态的协议。根据报道中的协议,美国将取消去年征收的大部分关税。中国方面将结束报复性关税,对投资和竞争政策做出一些改变,并指示国有企业购买一定数量的美国农产品和能源产品。The Trump administration will, of course, trumpet the deal as a triumph. In reality, however, it’s much ado about nothing much.当然,特朗普政府会把这个协议吹嘘为它的胜利。事实上,这只是小题大做而已。As described, the deal would do little to address real complaints about Chinese policy, which mainly involve China’s systematic expropriation of intellectual property. Nor would it do much to address Donald Trump’s pet although misguided peeve, the imbalance in U.S.-China trade. Basically, Trump will have backed down.如报道所述,该协议无助于解决对中国政策的真正不满,它们主要和中国系统性地掠夺知识产权有关。它也无助于解决美中贸易失衡——一个唐纳德·特朗普格外上心的头疼问题,尽管这问题本身存在误导。基本上,特朗普会做出让步。If this is the story, it will repeat what we saw on the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Trump denounced as the “worst trade deal ever made.” In the end, what Trump negotiated — the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, or U.S.M.C.A. — was very similar to the previous status quo. Trade experts I know, when not referring to it as the Village People agreement, call it “Nafta 0.8”: fundamentally the same as Nafta, but a bit worse.如果这是事实,它将重复《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)的情况。特朗普曾谴责该协定是“有史以来最糟糕的贸易协定”。最终,由他谈判签署的《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协议》(U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement,简称USMCA)与之前的情况非常相似。我认识的贸易专家不是管它叫《乡下人协议》,就是管它叫《北美自由贸易协定0.8》:基本上和《北美自由贸易协定》一样,但是比它更糟糕一点。Why is the president who famously declared that “trade wars are good, and easy to win” effectively waving the white flag? Mainly because winning turns out not to be easy, at all.为什么总统一边宣称“贸易战是好事,很容易赢”,一边却又挥起了白旗呢?主要是因为,事实证明,要赢得贸易战绝不是什么容易的事。Trump’s beloved stock market hates talk of trade war. There is no broad constituency for protectionism — in fact, public opinion has become much more pro-free trade under Trump. And Chinese retaliation has hit hard at voting blocs Trump depends on, especially in farm states.特朗普钟爱的股市讨厌关于贸易战的想法。保护主义没有广泛的选民支持——事实上,在特朗普任内,公众舆论变得更加支持自由贸易。而中国的报复对特朗普所依赖的投票群体造成了沉重打击,尤其是在农业州。Now, agreement with China isn’t a done deal. Trump may also yet open another front in the trade war, against European automobiles. And the Village People agreement awaits congressional approval, and it’s not clear what Trump will do if that isn’t forthcoming.现在,与中国的协议还没有最终确定。特朗普可能还得开辟另一条贸易战线,对抗欧洲汽车。《乡下人协议》还在等待国会批准,如果得不到批准,特朗普会怎么做还不清楚。Still, it looks possible, even likely, that within a few months most though not all of the trade war will have been unwound. So will it all look in retrospect like a passing storm, with few long-term consequences?尽管如此,虽然不是所有的贸易战都能在几个月内结束,但大部分贸易战看起来还是有可能结束的,甚至是很有可能结束的。那么,回过头来看,这一切会不会像是一场短暂的风暴,没有什么长期后果?No, it won’t. Even if most of the tariffs go away, Trump’s trade belligerence has done lasting damage to America’s reputation, and hence to a global economy that depends on American leadership.不,不会。即使大部分关税取消,特朗普在贸易方面的好斗也对美国的声誉造成了持久的损害,进而对依赖美国领导的全球经济造成了损害。The whole world now knows two things about us. First, we’re not reliable — an agreement with the U.S. is really just a suggestion, because you never know when the president will invent some excuse for breaking it. Second, we’re easily rolled: The president may talk tough on trade, but in classic bully fashion, he runs away if confronted.现在,关于我们,全世界都知道了这样两件事。首先,我们不可靠——与美国签署的协议实际上只相当于一个建议,因为你永远不知道总统什么时候会找借口来破坏它。其次,我们很容易被打败:总统可能会就贸易问题作出强硬的表态,但那是一种典型的恃强凌弱,如果遭到挑战,他就会逃跑。On U.S. unreliability, consider the way the current administration has treated Canada, probably the friendliest neighbor and firmest ally any nation has ever had. Despite generations of good relations and a free-trade agreement, Trump imposed large tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel, invoking national security as a justification. This was obviously specious — in fact, Trump himself basically conceded this point, justifying the tariffs instead as retaliation for Canadian dairy policy (which was also specious).关于美国有多么不可靠,不妨参考现任政府对待加拿大的方式,加拿大可能是有史以来最友好的邻国和最坚定的盟友。尽管有几代人的良好关系和自由贸易协定,特朗普还是以国家安全为由,对加拿大钢铝征收高额关税。这显然是似是而非的——事实上,特朗普本人基本上也承认了这一点,他辩护说,该关税是对加拿大乳制品政策的报复(同样似是而非。)The lesson for the world is that America can’t be trusted. Why bother making deals with a country that’s willing to slap sanctions on the best of allies, and clearly lie about the reasons, whenever it feels like it?世界得到了教训:美国不值得信任。这个国家对它最好的盟友实施制裁,而且只要它愿意,还会就制裁的原因说谎,为什么要白费力气和这么一个国家制定协议呢。Meanwhile, the sudden retreat in the confrontation with China shows that we talk loud but carry a small stick. It would be one thing if the U.S. had changed course on the merits. But backing down so easily, after all the posturing, tells the world that the way to deal with America is not to bargain in good faith, but simply to threaten the president’s political base, and maybe offer some payoffs, political and otherwise. (I’m still wondering about those floors China’s largest bank rents at Trump Tower.)与此同时,我们在同中国的对峙中突然退却,这表明我们其实是雷声大雨点小。如果美国为了现实利益而改变路线,那又是另一回事。但是装腔作势了那么半天,如此轻易就让步,这等于告诉世界,同美国打交道不必真诚地讨价还价,只要威胁总统的政治基础就可以了,或许还可以提供一些政治上或其他方面的回报。(我还在想着中国最大的银行在特朗普大厦租用的那些楼层。)And when it comes to payoffs, autocracies have an advantage over nations that observe the rule of law. China appears to be getting most Trump tariffs removed; Canada still faces those steel tariffs.说到回报,专制政府比遵守法治的国家更有优势。中国似乎正摆脱特朗普的大部分关税;加拿大仍然面临这些钢铁关税。Finally, by undermining the international system, America is making the world worse for itself as well as for everyone else. In fact, payback is coming right away.最后,通过破坏国际体系,美国正在让世界变成一个更糟糕的地方,对自己和对其他所有人都是如此。事实上,后果马上就来了。The World Trade Organization just gave America a big win in a dispute over Chinese agricultural subsidies — but its verdict is probably moot, because the Trump administration has spent the past two years denigrating the organization, and has crippled the appellate body that is supposed to enforce W.T.O. rulings, blocking the appointments that would have given this trade court the quorum it needs to act.在同中国的农业补贴争端中,世界贸易组织让美国获得了很大的胜利,但这个裁决结果可能毫无实际意义,因为特朗普政府过去两年里一直诋毁该组织,并且破坏了本应负责执行世贸组织裁决的上诉机构,阻挠它的法官任命,令该贸易法庭无法得到可以通过决议的法定人数。Let’s be clear: Not having a trade war is better than the alternative. But the path the Trump administration has taken to its trade deals has made us less trusted, less respected and weaker than we were before. So much winning!让我们明确一点:不打贸易战比打贸易战好。但特朗普政府在贸易协议上采取的方式,让我们比以前更不受信任、更不受尊重、更虚弱。我们真是大赢家!保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)自2000年以来一直是时报的专栏作家。他也是纽约市立大学研究生中心的杰出教授,因在国际贸易和经济地理方面的成就获得2008年诺贝尔经济学奖。欢迎在Twitter上关注他 @PaulKrugman。翻译:晋其角点击查看本文英文版。

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