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Author Topic: 当心中国在贸易谈判中的“红线”  (Read 874 times)

EnLong12

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on: February 19, 2019, 06:06:21 AM
当心中国在贸易谈判中的“红线”

更新于2019年2月15日 06:56米强:特朗普政府认为不公平的贸易行为,在中国看来是主权权利,这些权利对过去四十年中国取得的经济奇迹至关重要。



如果唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)未能在下个月与习近平达成贸易协议,从而引发世界两大经济体之间新一轮的关税和反制关税,这位美国总统可能会倾向于责怪他的一位民主党人前任,伍德罗•威尔逊(Woodrow Wilson)。一百年前的这个春天,威尔逊在争议性的第一次世界大战和平协议上签了字,该协议将德国在华殖民地分给了日本,而不是归还给中国当局。这一侮辱举动引发了“五四”学生运动,现在执政的中国共产党将这场运动奉为最终导向其革命胜利的爱国运动开端,今年十月就是中共革命胜利七十周年。这两个纪念日可能对中美贸易谈判有深远影响。本周会谈在北京重启,中国副总理刘鹤和美国贸易代表罗伯特•莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)仍在争执一系列“结构性问题”,正是它们支撑了这个全球第二大经济体独有的运行方式。当特朗普去年首次对中国进口商品征收惩罚性关税时,他是一个坚定的重商主义者,认为全球贸易是一场“零和”游戏,哪个国家盈余最大,哪个国家就获胜。因此他最初着眼于消除中国对美国的商品贸易顺差。后来,特朗普从莱特希泽那儿接受了有关中国产业政策和国家补贴的速成课程。最近几周特朗普表示,如果这些问题没有令人满意的解决方案,就不会与中国达成贸易协议。特朗普和他的团队认为不公平的贸易行为,在习近平看来是主权权利,这些权利对过去四十年中国取得的经济奇迹至关重要。随着经济增长放缓,中国领导层迫切想避免贸易战升级。据经济学家和了解中国立场的人士表示,为此中国领导层准备在除少数行业以外的大部分领域取消对外国投资者的限制,并将继续降低进口商品关税。但在北京看来,更大的威胁是美国要求中国政府不再保护大型国企使它们免受外资和私营企业的竞争,以及停止在重点领域向中国企业提供“扭曲市场的补贴以及其他形式的政府支持”。在这方面,北京准备做出的让步面临很大局限,正如习近平在最近对省级领导干部的讲话中谈到外部环境时所暗示的,他认为某些敌对势力决心破坏中国的稳定。根据中国的反垄断法,国家垄断被认为符合“公共利益”。政府对地方龙头企业的支持也被认为是必须的,特别是当一些中国最成功的科技公司,如华为(Huawei),成为美国当局的目标时。对于习近平来说,在这些领域屈服于美国压力——并同意在之后对中国“遵守”与否进行审查——既违背“五四”学生抗议者的精神,也背叛中共革命先辈,其中包括他的父亲。战略与国际研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的斯科特•肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)表示:“与省级领导就防范风险举行的这场研讨会是(习近平发出的)一个信号:准备好迎接困难时期。因为中国不会改变,而且也没人能强迫其改变。美国人和其他人想要的改变不是中国认为自己需要的改变。”像中国所有高级领导人一样,习近平认为中共在1949年取得胜利的那一刻,是中国终于结束了在外国侵略者掌控下的“百年国耻”,并最终夺回自己命运控制权的一刻,这是威尔逊和一战其他胜利者在凡尔赛拒绝给予中国的。随着北京与华盛顿的贸易摊牌即将在这个敏感的纪念周年到达高潮,尽管中国在经济上阴云密布,但习近平很可能比平常还要更加坚定地固守自己的立场。译者/何黎

Source: 当心中国在贸易谈判中的“红线”



 

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