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Author Topic: 当中国变成了21世纪的生存威胁  (Read 834 times)

SuHaiJack

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on: February 19, 2019, 06:06:19 AM
当中国变成了21世纪的生存威胁

戴维·布鲁克斯2019-02-18 14:28:42华为上个月在北京推出了新的5G产品。
I’ve always thought Americans would come together when we realized that we faced a dangerous foreign foe. And lo and behold, now we have one: China. It’s become increasingly clear that China is a grave economic, technological and intellectual threat to the United States and the world order.我一直认为,如果意识到我们正面临一个危险的外国敌人,美国人就会团结起来。看呐,现在我们有了一个敌人:中国。中国对美国和世界秩序构成了严重的经济、技术和知识威胁,这一点越来越明显了。And sure enough, beneath the TV bluster of daily politics, Americans are beginning to join together. Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren can sound shockingly similar when talking about China’s economic policy. Nancy Pelosi and Republicans sound shockingly similar when they talk about Chinese human rights abuses. Conservative and liberal policy thinkers can sound shockingly similar when they start talking about how to respond to the challenge from China.果然,在每日政治的电视喧嚣之下,美国人开始联合起来。谈到中国的经济政策,迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)和伊丽莎白·沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)听上去惊人地相似。南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)和共和党人在谈论中国侵犯人权问题时听上去也惊人地相似。当保守派和自由派的政策思想家开始讨论如何应对来自中国的挑战时,听上去还是惊人地相似。For the past few decades, China has appeared to be a net positive force in world affairs. Sure, Beijing violated trade agreements and escalated regional tensions. But the Chinese economic explosion lowered our cost of living and expanded prosperity worldwide.在过去几十年里,中国在世界事务中似乎总体上是一股积极的力量。当然,北京违反了贸易协定,加剧了地区紧张局势。但中国经济的爆炸式增长降低了我们的生活成本,扩大了全球的繁荣。But a few things have now changed. First, instead of liberalizing, the Chinese regime has become more aggressive and repressive.但是现在有些事情已经改变了。首先,中国政府非但没有实行自由化,反而变得更具侵略性和压制性。Second, the Chinese have changed their economic focus so that their economy can directly replace ours. The regime’s “Made in China 2025” policy is an attempt to go up the value chain and dominate high-tech industries like aerospace, robotics and biotech.其次,中国人已经改变了经济重心,以便让他们的经济可以直接取代我们的。中国政府的“中国制造2025”政策旨在向价值链上游发展,主导航空、机器人和生物技术等高科技行业。According to a report just released by Marco Rubio, the chairman of the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship, China’s artificial intelligence industry has grown by 67 percent over the past year and has produced more patents than its U.S. counterparts. One estimate suggests China is investing as much as 30 times more capital in quantum computing than the U.S. My colleague Thomas L. Friedman notes that China already has the No. 1 and No. 3 drone manufacturers in the world, and it is way ahead of us on technologies like facial and speech recognition. 根据参议院小企业与创业委员会(Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship)主席马尔科·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)刚刚发布的一份报告,中国的人工智能行业在过去一年增长了67%,产生的专利数量超过了美国同行。有估计认为,中国投资于量子计算的资金比美国多30倍。我的同事托马斯·L·弗里德曼(Thomas L. Friedman)指出,中国拥有世界上排名第一和第三的无人驾驶飞机制造商,它在面部和语音识别等技术方面也领先我们。All this would be fine if China were simply competing, but it’s not. It’s stealing. A commission led by retired Adm. Dennis Blair and former U.S. ambassador to China Jon Huntsman estimated in 2017 that the annual loss to the U.S. economy from Chinese intellectual property theft was between $225 billion and $600 billion. 如果中国只是在竞争,这一切都没问题,但事实并非如此。它在偷窃。由退役海军上将丹尼斯·布莱尔(Dennis Blair)和前美国驻华大使洪博培(Jon Huntsman)领导的一个委员会在2017年估计,中国知识产权盗窃每年给美国经济造成的损失在2250亿至6000亿美元之间。Some of the theft is done through hacking. Some of it is done by surreptitiously buying tech firms through shell companies in order to seize the technologies. Some of it is pure espionage and thuggery. Sometimes China offers to give American companies access to its markets in exchange for the technology, and then after China has digested the knowledge it closes off access. This is not competition. This is replacement.有些盗窃是通过黑客活动进行的。还有一些是通过空壳公司秘密收购科技公司来获取技术。其中一些是直截了当的间谍和暴徒行为。有时,中国提出用技术来换取美国公司进入中国市场的机会,但在中国消化了这些知识之后,就关闭了进入中国市场的大门。这不是竞争。这是替代。Third, Beijing is trying to seize the controlling centers of the new tech economy. If China can set the standard for 5G communication and dominate artificial intelligence and quantum computing, then it will be able to write the rules and LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)e the fibers of our society and our lives in ways that we cannot match.第三,中国政府正试图夺取新科技经济的控制中心。如果中国能够为5G通信设定标准,主导人工智能和量子计算,那么它将能以我们无法企及的方式书写规则,渗透到我们的社会和生活的方方面面。Fourth, the Chinese challenge is no longer just economic; it’s moral and intellectual. It’s a clash of two value systems. And many people around the globe now believe that Beijing’s values are better.第四,中国构成的挑战不再仅仅是经济方面的;也是道德和知识的问题。这是两种价值体系的冲突。全球现在有许多人认为,北京的价值观更好。We used to think China would democratize. Wrong. We used to think the regime would liberalize. Wrong. We used to think the Chinese people would rise up and join the free democratic world. Wrong.我们曾经以为中国会民主化。错。我们曾经以为它的政权会自由化。错。我们曾经以为中国人民会站起来,加入自由民主的世界。错。A fascinating essay by Wenfang Tang in American Affairs makes for humbling reading for anybody who thinks we can take the superiority of our system for granted. Chinese people have more trust in their governing institutions than Americans do. In a 2008 study, 78 percent of Chinese said their government responds to their needs, compared with 33 percent of Japanese and 21 percent of South Koreans. Chinese society has much more trust and social capital than American society. China, Tang notes, has the second-highest level of social trust in the world, after the Netherlands.唐文方在《美国事务》(American Affairs)上发表的一篇精彩文章会让那些理所当然地认为我们的制度更优越的人感到惭愧。中国人比美国人更信任自己的政府。在2008年的一项研究中,78%的中国人表示,政府会对他们的需求做出回应,相比之下,只有33%的日本人和21%的韩国人这样认为。中国社会比美国社会有更多的信任和社会资本。唐文方指出,中国的社会信任度高居世界第二,仅次于荷兰。If we don’t learn to make the case for our system, if we don’t make our system better, a lot of people everywhere will say: I’ll take what they’re having.如果我们不学会捍卫我们的制度,如果我们不让我们的制度变得更好,世界各地的很多人都会说:我愿意接受他们的制度。The big debate is: How do we respond? The Rubio report — “Made in China 2025 and the Future of American Industry” — makes for compelling and fascinating reading: “This report’s central conclusion is that the U.S. cannot escape or avoid decisions about industrial policy.”最大的争议是:我们该如何回应?卢比奥的报告《中国制造2025和美国工业的未来》读来非常精彩,引人入胜:“这份报告的核心结论是,美国无法逃避或避免有关产业政策的决定。”Free-market Republicans used to fight against industrial policy — heavy government intervention to support key sectors — until their dying breaths. But the Chinese threat is already fundamentally changing thinking across the board. The Rubio report seeks to move beyond the free-market/statist dichotomy and find new ways to proceed.信奉自由市场的共和党人过去常常反对产业政策,即政府大力干预以支持关键行业,除非这些行业生命垂危。但中国的威胁已经从根本上改变了所有人的想法。卢比奥的报告试图超越自由市场/中央集权的二分法,寻找新的前进道路。The biggest change may be to the American identity. As Reihan Salam asks in The Atlantic, if China is the “other” against which we define ourselves, then who are “we”? If China is an existential threat to the liberal international order, do we have the capacity to improve our system so it can face the challenge — to invest in human capital, to reform our institutions, repair the social fabric and make our political system function once again? 最大的变化可能是美国人的身份认同。正如赖安·萨拉姆(Reihan Salam)在《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)上所问的,如果中国是我们定义自己的“他者”,那么“我们”又是谁呢?如果中国对自由主义国际秩序构成生存威胁,我们是否有能力改善我们的制度,使其能够面对挑战,我们是否能对人力资本投资、改革我们的制度、修复社会结构,并使我们的政治体制再次发挥作用?戴维·布鲁克斯(David Brooks)自2003年起担任《纽约时报》专栏作者。他是《品格之路》(The Road to Character)一书的作者,即将推出新书《第二座山》(The Second Mountain)。翻译:晋其角点击查看本文英文版。

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