中国宣布货币政策转向“适度宽松”，应对经济挑战

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中国宣布货币政策转向“适度宽松”，应对经济挑战

KEITH BRADSHER2024年12月10日中国的中共中央政治局周一宣布了一系列旨在提振经济的措施。 Adek Berry/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesChina’s ruling Politburo loosened the country’s overall monetary policy on Monday for the first time in 14 years, the latest in a series of measures aimed at recharging economic growth and stopping a broad decline in prices.中国最高权力机构中共中央政治局周一宣布放宽货币政策，这是14年来的第一次，也是政治局为刺激经济增长、阻止物价普遍下跌所采取的一系列措施中的最新举措。In a statement, the Politburo said that it would embrace a “moderately loose” policy, shifting away from a longstanding “prudent” stance — a signal that the country’s central bank will be more willing to reduce interest rates in the coming year. It also means the central bank may be more open to commercial banks holding smaller reserves while extending more and larger loans.政治局在声明中称将实施“适度宽松”的货币政策，改变了其长期以来的“稳健”立场。这是一个信号，表明中国央行明年将更积极地降低利率，也意味着央行可能会对降低商业银行存款准备金、允许它们发放更多数额更大的贷款持更开放的态度。The Politburo also called for a more proactive fiscal policy, which means that the government will be more willing to increase its own spending. It further suggested that the government would “strengthen extraordinary countercyclical measures,” an indication that the authorities may plan further steps to halt the erosion in economic growth rates.政治局还提出要实施更加积极的财政政策，意味着政府将更愿意增加自身的支出。政治局进一步表示，政府将“加强超常规逆周期调节”，表明当局可能计划采取进一步措施来阻止经济增长率的下降。The Politburo said that it was approving several measures at the same time in order to deliver a policy “combination punch” to address China’s economic challenges.政治局表示，采取这些多管齐下的措施是为了“打好政策‘组合拳’”，解决中国面临的经济挑战，Taken together, the steps announced on Monday amounted to a rare public acknowledgment that Beijing needed to a take a stronger hand in addressing the country’s economic weakness.总体而言，周一宣布的这些措施标志着中国政府罕见地公开承认需要更强有力地应对国内经济疲软。The Politburo’s announcements came ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference on Wednesday and Thursday, when the Chinese Communist Party and the cabinet set the country’s economic agenda for the upcoming year.政治局的公告发布是在本周三、四的中央经济工作会议之前，中共和国务院将在这个年度会议上制定来年的国家经济议程。The conference is expected to reaffirm the Politburo’s stance and possibly also call for modest increases in government spending, particularly to help the elderly and very poor. But few economists expect the authorities to expand the budget deficit by enacting a very large increase in government aid to consumers. China has put more emphasis instead lately on helping manufacturers to build more high-tech factories.预计政治局提出的措施将在今年的中央经济工作会议上得到再次确定，会议可能要求适度增加政府支出，尤其是在帮助老年人和极度贫困人口方面。但几乎没有经济学家认为当局会使用政府向消费者提供大幅补贴的做法来扩大预算赤字。中国近来更加重视帮助制造商建设更多的高技术工厂。The Politburo issued its statement after stock markets had closed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with prices little changed, but while trading was still underway in Hong Kong. Shares there jumped after the announcement: The Hang Seng Index finished up 2.8 percent, its best day in weeks.政治局在上海和深圳的股市收盘后宣布了上述举措，这两个股市的股指几乎没有变化，但香港的股市仍在交易中。政治局的声明发布后，香港股市大涨：恒生指数在收盘时上涨了2.8%，这是数周来的最大单日涨幅。Monday’s statement did not provide many details, including any specific sums of money to be spent or by how much interest rates may change. Even after the economic conference concludes, officials may not enact some large, highly specific policies until the national legislature gathers on March 5 for its annual, roughly weeklong session.周一宣布的举措中没有太多细节，没有具体的支出金额或利率变化幅度。即使在中央经济工作会议结束之后，官员们可能也不会在明年3月5日之前颁布某些高度具体的大型政策，届时全国人民代表大会将召开为期约一周的年度会议。The last change in overall monetary policy was on Dec. 3, 2010, with a shift to a “prudent” stance. It was widely seen as a statement that the Chinese economy had rebounded strongly from the global financial crisis.中国上次调整货币政策是在2010年12月3日，转向“稳健”立场。那次调整被普遍视为中国经济从全球金融危机中强健恢复的迹象。Many economists inside and outside of China are skeptical that looser monetary policy will turn around the economy. The main problem lies in weak consumer spending: The middle class has lost much of its savings in a real estate crash over the last three years, and many people have become reluctant to spend on things like new cars and restaurant meals.中国国内外的许多经济学家对放宽货币政策能否扭转经济发展趋势持怀疑态度。中国经济的主要问题在于消费支出疲软：房地产市场在过去三年崩盘，导致中产阶级失去了他们的大部分积蓄，许多人变得不愿意在购买新车、去餐厅就餐等方面花钱。While the gains in Hong Kong share trading suggested that the Politburo’s action may strengthen mainland markets, the economic benefits may be muted. Chinese households have less than 2 percent of their assets in stocks, versus around 70 percent in real estate.虽然香港股市当天的上涨表明政治局的决定也许对内地股市来说是利好，但给中国经济带来的好处可能不大。股票在中国家庭资产中的占比不到2%，而房地产约占为70%。A looser monetary policy may also give a small lift to the bond market, because bond prices rise when interest rates fall. But Chinese households don’t hold many bonds, either — it is mainly banks that hold bonds in China.宽松的货币政策也可能给债券市场带来小幅提振，因为债券价格会在利率下降时上涨。但中国家庭持有的债券也不多，中国的债券主要由银行持有。And even if banks have more money to lend at slightly lower interest rates, there’s just not much demand by businesses or consumers to borrow money at all.即使银行有更多的钱，以更低的利率发放贷款，但企业或消费者也没有太大的借贷需求。The Politburo’s statement came hours after the government disclosed that consumer prices in November were up 0.2 percent from a year earlier, a smaller increase than analysts expected.在政治局做出上述宣布的几小时前，政府公布了今年11月份的消费者价格指数，该指数与去年同期相比上涨了0.2%，低于分析师们的预期。Producer prices — the wholesale prices charged by factories, mines, farms and other enterprises — were down 2.5 percent last month from a year earlier. Broadly falling prices, a phenomenon known as deflation, can be crippling for an economy, as companies and households find it hard to make fixed interest payments on bank loans and bonds.工厂、矿山、农场和其他企业向生产者收取的批发价格上月同比下降了2.5%。价格普遍下跌是一种被称为通货紧缩的现象，可能会给经济造成严重破坏，因为企业和家庭难以支付银行贷款和债券的固定利息。Li You对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。  https://feedx.site

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