为什么民主党想击败特朗普那么难

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为什么民主党想击败特朗普那么难

NATE COHN2024年11月4日自2008年以来的16年李，民主党有12年掌控白宫。 Vanessa Vick for The New York TimesWhatever happens Tuesday, it’s fair to say this campaign has not gone as smoothly as Democrats expected.无论周二发生什么，我们都可以说，这次竞选并不像民主党预期的那样顺利。In the wake of the midterms, Donald J. Trump appeared to be finished. He may still lose, of course, but he clearly wasn’t “disqualified” — as many expected — by Jan. 6, several criminal indictments or an overturning of Roe v. Wade by his Supreme Court appointees. If voters disqualified any candidate in 2024, it was the sitting president, not the felon who attempted to overturn the last election.在中期选举之后，特朗普似乎已经完了。当然，他这次可能仍然会输，但显然他并没有像许多人预期的那样，因1月6日国会暴乱事件、几项刑事起诉，或其任命的最高法院法官推翻了罗诉韦德案而“失去资格”。如果说选民在2024年取消了任何候选人的资格的话，那也是现任总统，而不是试图推翻上次选举结果的重罪犯。How is Mr. Trump still so competitive? The simplest answer is that the national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Democratic victory as many might imagine.特朗普为什么仍然如此有竞争力？最简单的答案是，国家政治环境并不像许多人想象的那样有利于民主党获胜。Democrats clearly face headwinds in this election. In the last New York Times/Siena College poll, only 40 percent of voters approved of President Biden’s performance, and only 28 percent said the country was heading in the right direction. No party has retained control of the White House when so many Americans were dissatisfied with the country or the president.民主党在这次选举中显然面临逆势。在上一次《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民意调查中，只有40%的选民认可拜登总统的表现，只有28%的选民表示国家正朝着正确的方向前进。在如此多的美国人对国家或总统不满的情况下，没有哪个政党曾保住对白宫的控制权。The polls suggest the challenge for Democrats runs even deeper. For the first time in decades, Republicans have pulled even or ahead in nationwide party identification. Polls also find Republicans with an edge on most key issues — with democracy and abortion standing as significant exceptions.民调显示，民主党面临的挑战更为严峻。几十年来，共和党首次在全国范围内的政党认同中与民主党打成平手或领先。民意调查还发现，共和党在大多数关键问题上都占据优势——民主和堕胎权是重要的例外。The Democrats’ challenge appears to be part of a broader trend of political struggles for ruling parties across the developed world. Voters appear eager for change when they get the chance. The ruling parties in Britain, Germany, Italy, Australia and most recently Japan all faced electoral setbacks or lost power. Mr. Trump himself lost four years ago. France and Canada might well join the list.民主党面临的挑战似乎是发达国家执政党面临的政治竞争大趋势的一部分。选民们似乎一有机会就渴望改变。英国、德国、意大利、澳大利亚以及最近的日本的执政党都遭遇了选举挫折或失去权力。特朗普本人四年前也输了。法国和加拿大很可能也会加入这个名单。The specifics vary from country to country and party to party, but much of the story is the same: the pandemic and upheaval that followed. Nearly everywhere, high prices and the fallout from the pandemic left voters angry and resentful. It discredited ruling parties — and many of them weren’t especially popular at the outset.具体情况因国家和政党而异，但故事的大部分内容是相同的：新冠大流行和随之而来的动荡。几乎在所有地方，物价高企和疫情后的余波都让选民感到愤怒和怨恨。它使执政党失去信誉——而其中许多政党一开始就不是特别受欢迎。This gradually eroded and sometimes shattered trust in government officials, liberal elites and the media. When prices rose, it frustrated millions of Newbie traderer and low-income voters who saw their savings, purchasing power, housing opportunities and hopes dwindle.这逐渐削弱了人们对政府官员、自由派精英和媒体的信任，有时甚至摧毁了信任。当价格上涨时，数百万年轻和低收入选民感到不满，他们的储蓄、购买力、住房机会和希望都变少了。In the United States, post-pandemic disillusionment and frustration took a toll on Democrats. The party championed a tough response to the virus, including mask and vaccine mandates, school closures and lockdowns. It had backed the Black Lives Matter movement, argued for a more liberal border policy, sought to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and spent trillions on stimulus. As the pandemic ended, all of this quickly became a liability.在美国，后疫情时代的幻灭和沮丧给民主党带来严重的负面影响。该党主张对病毒采取强硬措施，包括强制戴口罩和接种疫苗、关闭学校和封锁。它支持“黑人的命也是命”运动，主张更自由的边境政策，寻求减少温室气体排放，并花费数万亿美元刺激经济。随着疫情的结束，所有这些很快变成了负担。Unlike other governing parties, Democrats have the Trump card to play. Along with abortion, it could be enough to allow Democrats to prevail. That’s exactly what happened in the 2022 midterm elections. But even if Kamala Harris emerges as the winner, it will not necessarily be a victory for progressives.与其他执政党不同，民主党有特朗普这张牌可以打。加上堕胎权议题，这可能足以让民主党获胜。这正是2022年中期选举发生的事。但即使贺锦丽在此次大选中获胜，也不一定是进步派的胜利。More than at any time over the last 16 years, Democrats are playing defense on the issues. They’ve moved to the right on immigration, energy and crime. They de-emphasized the traditional liberal push to expand the society safety net, which was eclipsed by the urgency to reduce prices. 民主党在这些问题上比在过去16年里任何时候都更为保守。他们在移民、能源和犯罪问题上向右转。他们不再强调扩大社会保障网这一自由主义的传统努力，这被降低物价的紧迫性所取代。Whatever the outcome, a long period of liberal ascendancy in American politics might be waning.无论大选结果如何，自由主义在美国政坛的长期优势可能正在减弱。The end of an era?一个时代的终结？Since 2008, Democrats and liberalism have been dominant in American politics.自2008年以来，民主党和自由主义一直主导着美国政治。Democrats won the popular vote in four straight presidential elections. When they held full control of government, they enacted the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank and the CHIPS Act; they saved the auto industry and spent billions on renewable energy, infrastructure and more.民主党连续四次在总统大选中赢得大多数选票。当他们完全控制政府时，他们颁布了《平价医疗法案》、《多德-弗兰克法案》和《芯片法案》；他们拯救了汽车行业，并在可再生能源、基础设施等方面投入了数十亿美元。Liberalism has been ascendant in the culture as well. The period was marked by a series of popular movements on the activist left, from the Obama ’08 campaign to Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, #MeToo, the Bernie Sanders campaign and calls for a Green New Deal and Medicare for all.自由主义在文化中也占据了主导地位。这一时期以一系列积极的左翼民众运动为标志，从奥巴马2008年的竞选到“占领华尔街”、“黑人的命也是命”、#我也是、伯尼·桑德斯的竞选，以及呼吁“绿色新政”和全民医保。The election of Mr. Trump didn’t stop this outpouring of liberal energy. Instead, it accelerated it. His election alarmed and outraged millions, who saw him as racist, Forex and Stock Speculatingist and a threat to democracy. The murder of George Floyd and the pandemic only added to the outrage, leading to a vigilant and righteous new left that preached antiracism and coronavirus restrictions. It culminated in a wave of protests and so-called “woke” progressive activism on race and gender.特朗普的当选并没有阻止这种自由主义能量的涌现。相反，它加速了它的发展。他的当选让数百万人感到震惊和愤怒，他们认为他是种族主义者、性别歧视者和对民主的威胁。乔治·弗洛伊德之死和新冠大流行更加剧了人们的愤怒，导致警惕而正义的新左派宣扬反种族主义和新冠病毒限制。它最终引发了一波抗议浪潮，以及所谓的种族和性别“觉醒”进步主义。Over just the last few years, all of this liberal energy suddenly seemed to vanish. The backlash against pandemic restrictions and the woke left gradually went mainstream, and even divided liberal institutions. Trust in the media, “experts” and scientists plunged. Newbie traderer Americans took to social media — perhaps with the help of algorithmic changes — to vent their frustrations with an aging president, high prices, lost opportunity and anger at a system that wasn’t working for them.而就在过去几年里，所有这些自由主义能量似乎突然消失了。对疫情限制和觉醒左派的强烈反对逐渐成为主流，甚至分裂了自由主义机构。对媒体、“专家”和科学家的信任度直线下降。年轻美国人转向社交媒体——也许是在算法变化的帮助下——发泄他们对年迈的总统、高昂的价格、失去的机会以及对一个不适合他们的系统的愤怒。At the same time, the events that followed the pandemic took a serious toll on the case for liberalism, whatever the precise merits of the arguments. Inflation and high interest rates could be blamed on high government spending stimulating excessive demand. High gas prices could be blamed on suspending drilling permits and the termination of the Keystone pipeline project. A surge of migrants could be blamed on the administration’s looser border policy, which became politically untenable; homelessness, crime and disorder made the case for “law and order.”与此同时，疫情之后发生的种种事件都对自由主义的论点造成了严重损害，无论这些论点的具体优劣如何。通货膨胀和高利率可以归咎于高政府支出刺激了过度需求。高油价可以归咎于暂停钻井许可和终止Keystone输油管道项目。移民激增可以归咎于政府宽松的边境政策，该政策在政治上站不住脚；无家可归、犯罪和混乱使“法律和秩序”成为必要。On issue after issue, Democrats have responded by moving to the right. Most obviously, Ms. Harris had to back away from positions she took when the progressive cultural ascendancy was near its peak in 2019 — a ban on fracking, Medicare for all and so on. But the Democratic shift isn’t simply about backing away from positions taken during a Democratic primary. Across the board, Democrats have de-emphasized policies they preached with confidence to a general electorate only a few years ago.在一个又一个问题上，民主党人通过向右转来应对。最明显的是，贺锦丽不得不放弃她在2019年进步文化优势接近顶峰时所采取的立场——禁止水力压裂（贺锦丽在环境和气候政策上的重要立场——译注）、全民医保等等。但民主党的转变不仅仅体现在放弃民主党初选期间所采取的立场。民主党人全面淡化了几年前他们满怀信心向选民宣扬的政策。If there’s any poll question that captures the swing toward a more conservative environment, it’s the question of which party (or candidate) would do the best on the issue that’s most important to your vote. All cycle, polls have shown Republicans and Mr. Trump with an advantage on this measure. Indeed, the polls show Mr. Trump and Republicans with an advantage on most issues.如果说有任何民意调查问题可以反映出向更保守环境的转变，这个问题就是哪个政党（或候选人）在对你的投票最重要的问题上表现得更好。整个周期的民意调查都显示，共和党和特朗普在这一指标上占据优势。事实上，民意调查显示特朗普和共和党在大多数问题上都占据优势。This rightward shift is evident in party identification as well. This year, high-quality polls found that the nearly two-decade-long Democratic advantage in party identification evaporated or even reversed. This year, the biggest names in political polling — Pew Research, Gallup, NBC/WSJ, Times/Siena, and so on — have all found the Republicans edging ahead of the Democrats for the first time since 2004, if ever.这种向右的转变在政党认同方面也很明显。今年，高质量的民调发现，民主党在政党认同方面近二十年的优势已经消失，甚至被逆转了。今年，政治民意调查领域最知名的机构——皮尤研究中心、盖洛普、NBC/WSJ、时报/锡耶纳等——都发现共和党自2004年以来首次领先于民主党。The trend in party registration is similar, with Republicans rapidly gaining ground across the country. All of the battleground states with party registration — Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina — will probably have more registered Republicans than Democrats in November, even if Ms. Harris wins with support from the growing ranks of the unaffiliated.政党登记的趋势也类似，共和党在全国范围内迅速崛起。所有登记党派的战场州——亚利桑那州、宾夕法尼亚州、内华达州和北卡罗来纳州——在11月登记的共和党人可能都会多于民主党人，即使贺锦丽在日益壮大的无党派人士的支持下获胜。In the longer sweep of the last 16 years, this is an enormous change. When Democrats came to power in 2008, they confidently entered the White House with arguably a 40-year-long list of policies to address a backlog of problems, from health care and climate to immigration and unions. They enacted much of this agenda over the last 16 years, but many voters still aren’t satisfied with the state of the country.在更长的过去16年的时间跨度内，这是一个巨大的变化。2008年民主党上台时，他们满怀信心地入主白宫，推出了一系列长达40年的政策，以解决从医疗保健、气候，到移民和工会等一系列积压问题。在过去16年里，他们实施了大部分议程，但许多选民仍然对国家的现状不满意。If it weren’t for Mr. Trump’s liabilities, it’s easy to imagine how Republicans could have won decisively in the manner of a “change” election, like in 1980 or 2008, when American politics lurched left or right with lasting consequences. Mr. Trump might still do so, but clearly his challenges will make it harder in important ways.如果不是因为特朗普的不利因素，很容易想象共和党本可以像1980年或2008年那样，以“变革”选举的方式取得决定性胜利，当时美国政治左右摇摆，产生了持久的影响。特朗普也许仍能那样做，但显然他面临的挑战将在一些重要方面使这一过程变得更加困难。If Mr. Trump wins, this will be the likeliest explanation, rather than his own political popularity. After a period of Democratic predominance, the upheaval during and after the pandemic, along with the response, left too many voters disillusioned with Democrats, and unwilling to give the party another chance — despite their serious reservations about Mr. Trump.如果特朗普获胜，这才是最具可能性的解释，而不是他自己的政治受欢迎程度。在民主党占据主导地位一段时期后，疫情期间和疫情后的动荡以及应对措施让太多选民对民主党感到失望，不愿意再给该党一次机会——尽管他们对特朗普持严重的保留态度。If he loses, the explanation will be equally simple: It was his own conduct on Jan. 6 and the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe that cost him a winnable election. In that event, a Harris victory still might not augur well for the hopes of progressives. Oddly, it is easiest to imagine a reinvigorated liberalism if Mr. Trump wins the presidency, and refuels the tank of anti-Trump fervor once more.如果他输了，解释也同样简单：是他自己在1月6日的行为，以及最高法院推翻罗诉韦德案的决定，让他失去了一场本可以赢得的选举。在这种情况下，贺锦丽的胜利可能仍然不利于进步派的希望。奇怪的是，如果特朗普赢得总统大选，并再次点燃反特朗普的热情，自由主义重新焕发活力就变得最容易想象。Democrats might keep their winning streak going on Tuesday, but when historians look back they might conclude that the liberal ascendancy had already come to an end.民主党可能会在周二继续保持连胜势头，但当历史学家回顾时，他们可能会得出这样的结论：自由主义的优势已经结束。Nate Cohn是《纽约时报》首席政治分析师。他报道选举、民意、人口统计和民意调查。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

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