中国至关重要，但美国总统候选人为何鲜少提及对华政策？

[SuHaiJack]

中国至关重要，但美国总统候选人为何鲜少提及对华政策？

DAVID E. SANGER2024年8月30日2023年，拜登总统与中国国家主席习近平在加州举行会谈。 Doug Mills/The New York TimesAsk President Biden — or just about anyone in the national security firmament of the United States — about America’s most potent geopolitical challenge over the next few decades, and you are bound to get a near-unanimous answer: China.如果问拜登总统——或者美国国家安全领域的任何一个人——未来几十年美国最大的地缘政治挑战是什么，你一定会得到一个几乎一致的答案：中国。The argument is familiar. The United States has never before faced a competitor who challenges it on so many fronts. Xi Jinping’s China is America’s only real technological competitor, in everything from artificial intelligence to semiconductors, electric cars to biological sciences. The country has more than doubled the size of its nuclear arsenal in the past few years, and a new partnership it has formed with Russia could upend every assumption about how America defends itself.给出的理由都差不多。美国从来没有遇到过一个在这么多领域挑战它的竞争对手。从人工智能到半导体，从电动汽车到生物科学，习近平领导的中国是美国唯一真正的技术竞争对手。在过去几年里，中国的核武库规模扩大了一倍多，它与俄罗斯建立的一种新伙伴关系可能会颠覆关于美国如何自卫的所有假设。Then there’s the economy. If, a few years ago, American economists worried about China’s rapid rise, today they worry about its slowdown, and the overhang of industrial production that is flooding the world with excess goods, with potentially disastrous consequences.然后是经济。如果说几年前，美国经济学家担心的是中国的快速崛起，那么今天，他们担心的是中国经济的放缓，以及产能过剩的问题——过剩的商品正充斥着世界，这有可能带来灾难性后果。There’s also the very real risk of war over Taiwan. There’s TikTok. The list goes on.在台湾问题上也存在着爆发战争的真正风险。还有TikTok。这个清单可以一直列下去。Yet when the issue comes up on the campaign trail at all, it’s framed chiefly as an economic threat. Thornier discussions of China’s role as a broad strategic competitor, with ambitions that are already forcing the United States to change how it prepares its workers, shapes its investments and restructures its defenses, have fallen largely by the wayside.然而，当这个议题出现在竞选活动中时，它主要被视为一种经济威胁。中国的野心已经迫使美国改变了培训工人、塑造投资和重组国防的方式，关于中国作为一个广泛战略竞争对手的更为棘手的讨论，基本上被放在了一边。China has fallen victim to what I call Situation Room-Campaign Trail disequilibrium. It works something like this: If there is a topic that is fixating Washington policymakers, it’s usually a good bet no one is talking about it, except in platitudes, on the campaign trail.中国陷入了我所说的“战情室-竞选活动”失衡。它的原理是这样的：如果有一个议题困扰着华盛顿的政策制定者，那么通常可以肯定的是，除了竞选活动中一些老生常谈的说法，没有人会谈论它。This week was a prime example. While the campaign roared along, President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, was in Beijing, meeting with President Xi on a range of urgent issues, including China’s support of Russia’s war in Ukraine.本周就是一个典型的例子。在竞选活动如火如荼地进行时，拜登总统的国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文到北京与习近平主席就一系列紧急问题举行会谈，包括中国支持俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争。Chips, human rights and climate芯片、人权和气候议题You might think that China would be the exception to the Situation Room rule. It touches everything, from how we shop at Walmart to the warming of the earth. Progressives could be expected to concern themselves both with its human rights record and its status as the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.你可能认为中国会是战情室规则的例外。中国的问题涉及方方面面，从我们在沃尔玛的购物方式到地球变暖。进步人士估计同时会关注这个国家的人权记录，以及作为世界最大温室气体排放国的身份。Some conservatives arguing for bigger defense budgets pay close attention to the growth of China’s navy, and its 2021 tests of hypersonic missiles that took the Pentagon by surprise. They make a case for letting Europe worry about the war in Ukraine, so the United States can focus on China.一些主张增加国防预算的保守派人士密切关注中国海军的发展，还有2021年令五角大楼大吃一惊的那次高超音速导弹试验。他们主张把乌克兰战争留给欧洲去操心，这样美国就可以集中精力对付中国。But China has yet to emerge as the subject of sustained — and substantive — debate in the presidential campaign.但在总统竞选中，中国并不是一个贯穿始终并得到充分讨论的话题。It’s easy to dismiss this by saying that foreign policy rarely gets a serious airing in presidential elections, unless Americans are actively deployed in a conflict abroad. But it’s emerged as a key theme in multiple elections.大家很容易对这个议题不以为然，觉得总统选举很少会认真讨论外交政策，除非美国人正在积极地参与海外冲突。然而，在以往的多次选举中，外交政策已经成为了一个重大主题。In 2016, Trump turned “America First” into his rallying cry, echoing a term used by an isolationist, stay-out-of-war political pressure group in the 1940 election. (When my colleague Maggie Haberman and I first asked Trump about the phrase in an interview in early 2016, he said he hadn’t heard of it; days later, he was using it.)2016年，特朗普将“美国优先”变成了他的战斗口号，呼应了1940年的总统选举期间，一个信奉孤立主义、主张不参战的政治压力团体所使用的一个术语。（我和同事玛吉·哈伯曼在2016年初的一次采访中第一次问起特朗普这个说法时，他表示自己没听说过；几天后他就开始用上了。）The Kennedy-Nixon debates in 1960 were dominated by the questions of nuclear strategy and how to curb the influence of the Soviet Union. And Barack Obama’s election in 2008 was propelled by the human and strategic disaster of the Iraq War.1960年，肯尼迪与尼克松的辩论主要围绕核战略以及如何遏制苏联的影响等问题来展开。2008年奥巴马的当选是由伊拉克战争的人道和战略灾难所推动的。Falling back on easy talking points退回到简单的谈话要点1960年，肯尼迪与尼克松的辩论主要围绕核战略以及如何遏制苏联的影响等问题来展开Vice President Kamala Harris mentioned China just once when she accepted the Democratic presidential nomination last week, saying she wanted to ensure “that America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership.” She then moved on to Russia.上周，副总统贺锦丽在接受民主党总统候选人提名的演讲中，只提到了中国一次，她说，她想确保“赢得21世纪竞争的是美国，而不是中国，我们要加强而非放弃我们的全球领导地位”。然后，她就把话题转向了俄罗斯。For his part, Trump no longer talks at his rallies about the great trade deals he thinks he is going to strike with Xi, as he often did while in office. Instead, he blames Beijing for the coronavirus pandemic and then promises to impose steep tariffs on Chinese goods.至于特朗普，他在竞选造势集会上不再谈论他认为自己将与习近平达成的重大贸易协议，在任时，他经常把这件事挂在嘴边。相反，他将新冠大流行归咎于北京，并承诺对中国商品征收高额关税。Harris has criticized those ideas as a “national sales tax” that would cost middle-class consumers billions and fuel inflation. But the Biden administration has not only kept Trump-era tariffs in place, it has also proposed new ones, including a 100 percent tax on Chinese-made electric vehicles. So far, the Harris campaign hasn’t said what kind of tariffs she would support.贺锦丽批评这些想法是一种“国家销售税”，将使中产阶级消费者付出数十亿美元的代价，并加剧通货膨胀。但拜登政府不仅保留了特朗普时代的关税，还提出了新的关税，包括对中国制造的电动汽车征收100%的税。到目前为止，贺锦丽的竞选团队尚未就她的关税立场表态。The argument about tariffs is a critical economic one. But the strategic questions of dealing with China go far beyond what you can order — or how much you pay — when you shop online.关于关税的争论是一个关键的经济问题。但是，与中国打交道的战略问题远非你在网上购物时可以订购什么——或者付多少钱——那么简单。Nukes, satellites and dominance核武器、卫星和主导地位Almost as soon as the next president is sworn in, questions about countering China’s military buildup — in space and cyberspace, on the seas and in the nuclear missile silos that have suddenly appeared in the Chinese desert — will sweep through those Situation Room meetings.新总统甫一宣誓就职，关于如何应对中国的军备——在太空和网络空间、在海洋，以及中国的沙漠中突然出现的核导弹发射井——几乎第一时间就会席卷战情室的会议。First and foremost will be the implications of the new relationship between Beijing and Moscow. Just before he exited the presidential race, Biden acknowledged for the first time, in response to my question at a news conference, that the administration had adopted a strategy of trying to interrupt the partnership of its two biggest adversaries, much as Nixon and Kissinger attempted 50 years ago. Harris has been around for internal debates about that strategy, but we know little about her thinking on the subject.首当其冲的是北京和莫斯科之间建立新关系所带来的影响。就在拜登退出总统竞选之前，他在一次新闻发布会上回答我的提问时首次承认，政府采取了一种策略，试图打断两个最大对手的伙伴关系，就像尼克松和基辛格50年前尝试做的那样。贺锦丽一直有参与该战略的内部讨论，但我们对她在这一问题上的想法知之甚少。Quietly, Mr. Biden also changed the guidance on nuclear strategy, to focus more on a Chinese arsenal that the Pentagon thinks is headed to 1,500 weapons. That sounds like an invitation for rekindling Cold War-era debates.拜登还悄悄地改变了美国的核战略指导方针，将更多的注意力放在中国的核武库上，五角大楼认为中国的核武数量将达到1500件。这听起来像是在试图重新点燃冷战时期的辩论。The one subject no candidate wants to touch, of course, is TikTok. Trump threatened to ban it in the last year of his presidency; he has now flipped his position. Harris hasn’t said yet whether she thinks the Chinese-owned app, which her campaign is using furiously to attract Newbie traderer voters, is a blessing or a national security threat.当然，所有候选人都不愿触碰的话题是TikTok。特朗普在他总统任期的最后一年威胁要禁止该应用；现在他已经改变立场。而这款由中国拥有的应用程序究竟是好东西还是国家安全威胁，贺锦丽也没有表态。与此同时，她的竞选团队正在积极利用TikTok吸引年轻选民。But Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo had it about right when she was asked last year whether the Biden administration was ready to ban it in an effort to keep Chinese influences off American phones.但去年，当商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多被问及拜登政府是否准备禁止TikTok，以阻止中国的影响力进入美国人的手机时，她的看法无疑是正确的。“The politician in me,” she said drolly, “thinks you’re going to literally lose every voter under 35, forever.”“要我从政治人物的角度来说，”她打趣道，“我会觉得，这将让你永远失去所有35岁以下的选民。”David E. Sanger报道拜登政府和国家安全。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 中国至关重要，但美国总统候选人为何鲜少提及对华政策？