援建基地还是永久驻军？中国在柬埔寨军事存在引争议

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援建基地还是永久驻军？中国在柬埔寨军事存在引争议

AGNES CHANG, HANNAH BEECH2024年7月18日中国坚称没有在柬埔寨建设海军基地。柬埔寨也这么说。但这个已为航母准备就绪的码头却表明，事实并非如此。同理还有图中的巨型干船坞。它们坐落在主要海上航道附近，似乎是为推进中国的海军野心而量身定做。 In 2020, something curious happened at Cambodia’s Ream military base, on the Gulf of Thailand.2020年，位于泰国湾的柬埔寨云壤军事基地发生了一些耐人寻味的事情。Not long after submitting — and then abruptly withdrawing — a request for the U.S. Defense Department to refurbish parts of the base, Cambodian officials proceeded to demolish the American-funded buildings that were already there, some only four years old.在向美国国防部提出翻修该基地部分设施的请求后不久，柬埔寨官员又突然将要求撤回，然后开始拆除美国资助的建筑物，其中有的落成仅四年。Then the Chinese got to work.再然后，中国人的身影出现了。Since December, two Chinese warships have docked nearly every day at the rapidly expanding port. And the work taking place at Ream is in keeping with a Chinese building spree that ranges from near the Red Sea to the South China Sea.自去年12月以来，两艘中国军舰几乎每天都停靠在这个在迅速扩建的港口。云壤的工程与从红海附近到南海的中国建设热潮步调一致。The Chinese military presence near one of the world’s most vital sea lanes raises fundamental questions about Beijing’s ambitions. While the American constellation of military bases remains by far the largest in the world, a resurgent China is bringing countries like Cambodia into its orbit.地处世界上最重要海上通道附近的中国军事存在引发了人们对北京有何图谋的根本性疑问。尽管美国的军事基地体系在全球规模仍然位居榜首，但复兴的中国正在把柬埔寨等国家纳入自己的轨道。“The potential for a permanent Chinese military presence in Cambodia raises significant geopolitical concerns,” said Sophal Ear, a Cambodian-American political scientist at the Thunderbird School of Global Management at Arizona State University. “It could prompt strategic adjustments from the U.S. and heighten global perceptions of Chinese militarization.”“中国在柬埔寨永久驻军的可能性，引发了重大的地缘政治担忧，”亚利桑那州立大学雷鸟全球管理学院的柬埔寨裔美国政治学家索法尔·厄尔说。“这可能会促使美国进行战略调整，并加剧全球对中国军事化的看法。”上个月在柬埔寨举行的联合军事演习上的柬埔寨和中国国旗。The Long Visit漫长的到访On Dec. 3, 2023, Cambodia’s defense minister announced that two Chinese Navy corvettes were visiting Ream for a joint military exercise. Satellite images show that the warships had arrived two days earlier. They have stayed in the vicinity ever since.2023年12月3日，柬埔寨国防部长宣布，两艘中国海军护卫舰将到访云壤，进行联合军事演习。卫星图像显示，军舰在两天前就抵达了。此后，它们一直在附近停留。The corvettes are the only ships that have docked at the new Chinese-built pier at Ream, which can accommodate ships far larger than any in Cambodia’s fleet. Cambodia’s own smaller corvettes dock at a much more modest pier to the south.这两艘护卫舰是唯一停靠在中国建造的云壤新码头的船只，该码头可容纳的最大船只远超柬埔寨舰队中的任何一艘船。柬埔寨自己的小型护卫舰停靠在南边一个小得多的码头。两艘中国军舰已在云壤停靠了七个多月。Over the past few years, American officials and Japanese naval vessels have also tried to visit Ream. They were denied full access.过去几年，美国官员和日本海军舰船也曾尝试到访云壤。它们未拿到完全访问权。“We are clear eyed about the People’s Republic of China’s efforts to establish overseas military bases, including at Ream,” said John Supple, a Pentagon spokesman. “We’re particularly concerned about the People’s Republic of China’s lack of transparency around its intentions and the terms it negotiates, because countries should be free to make sovereign choices that support their interests and regional security.”“我们对中华人民共和国建立海外军事基地的努力非常清楚，包括在云壤，”五角大楼发言人约翰·苏普莱说。“我们尤其关注的是，中国政府在其意图和谈判条款方面缺乏透明度，因为各国应该可以自由地做出维护自身利益和地区安全的主权选择。”The Cambodians deny any greater Chinese intent.柬埔寨方面否认中国有任何更大的意图。When Lloyd J. Austin III, the U.S. secretary of defense, traveled to Cambodia in early June, he was told by his counterparts there that China was simply helping Cambodia modernize its military, not building a base for itself.美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀于6月初访问柬埔寨时，对方告诉他，中国只是在帮助柬埔寨实现军事现代化，并非为自己建立军事基地。“The Ream military base is Cambodia’s, not the military base of any country,” Mey Dina, the commander of the base, told The New York Times. “It is not right to say that the base is controlled by China.”“云壤军事基地是柬埔寨的，不是什么其他国家的军事基地，”基地指挥官梅·迪纳告诉《纽约时报》。“说基地由中国控制是不对的。”While the construction at Ream is still underway, no foreign vessels will be allowed to dock there, Mr. Mey Dina said. The foreign vessels that have been docked there for more than half a year — the Chinese corvettes — were for “training only,” he said.梅·迪纳说，云壤的建设仍在进行中，不允许外国船只停靠。他说，在那里停靠了半年多的外国船只——中国护卫舰——“仅用于训练”。云壤的码头与中国吉布提海军基地的码头相似。Power Projection力量投射China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has articulated a grand vision for his growing superpower. Chief among his military goals: a blue-water navy that can project Beijing’s might far from China’s shores.中国领导人习近平为他日益增长的超级大国提出了一个宏伟的愿景。他的首要军事目标是：建立一支蓝水海军，在远离中国海岸的地方投射北京的力量。Today, China boasts the world’s largest navy in terms of the number of vessels. And it has added aircraft carriers to its fleet.今天，中国是世界上拥有海军舰艇数量最多的国家。而且，已有不止一艘航母在役。But navies of this size and scope, operating thousands of miles from home, need access to bases abroad.但如此规模和活动范围的海军，在数千公里外的地方执行任务，需要有海外基地供停靠。In 2017, after years of evasiveness about what was being built, China completed its first base on foreign soil, in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa.2017年，在对正在建设的项目含糊其辞多年之后，中国在非洲之角的吉布提建成了在外国土地上的第一个军事基地。中国在海外的军事足迹虽小，但是在不断扩大。That same year, China put finishing touches on a far more startling project in disputed waters in the South China Sea.同年，中国在南海有争议海域完成了一个更令人吃惊的项目。Churning up coral and sand from the ocean floor, state-owned dredgers created military installations on what had once been placid atolls called the Spratlys. An international tribunal has ruled that some of those specks of land are not Chinese territory.中国官方的挖泥船从海底挖出珊瑚和沙子，在曾经宁静的环礁斯普拉特利群岛（中国称南沙群岛。——译注）建起军事设施。一个国际法庭裁定，其中一些岛屿不是中国领土。The same kind of state-owned dredgers are now operating in Ream. Out of reclaimed land, they have created a wharf and dry dock, each of which far surpasses the needs of the Cambodian fleet.现在，同样的官方挖泥船正活跃在云壤。他们通过填海建立了一个码头和干船坞，全都远超柬埔寨舰队的需求。Still, unlike the installations at the Spratlys, Ream does not appear to have building sites reserved for missile launchers or fighter jet hangars. Ream may be primarily intended as a resupply station for the Chinese navy, according to satellite analysts.不过，与斯普拉特利群岛的设施不同，云壤似乎没有为导弹发射器或战斗机机库预留建筑场地。据卫星分析人士称，云壤可能主要用作中国海军的补给站。中国已将商业影响力扩展到世界各个海域。“Ream is more like China playing roulette as it looks for ports for the blue water navy that Xi Jinping wants,” said Gregory B. Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I don’t think any Chinese planner looked at all the possible locations around the world and said, ‘Ream is the one we need.’ It’s more that Ream is one of the only ones on offer because China has no real allies and few friends.”“云壤更像是中国在玩轮盘赌，因为它在为习近平想要的蓝水海军寻找港口，”战略与国际研究中心亚洲海事透明度倡议主任格雷戈里·波林说。“我不认为中国的规划师在查看了世界上所有可能的地点后说，‘云壤是我们需要的那个。’更可能的情况是，云壤是仅有的选择之一，因为中国没有真正的盟友，朋友也不多。”Commercial Beachheads商业滩头阵地Even as the dredgers were working overtime at the Spratlys, Mr. Xi stood at the White House and swatted away fears that China’s new islands — which now bristle with fighter jet-ready runways, radar domes and warehouses made for missiles — were for military purposes. Chinese officials said they would be havens for tourism.就在挖泥船在斯普拉特利群岛加班加点的时候，习近平站在白宫，打消了人们对中国新建人工岛屿是出于军事目的的担忧——现在，这些岛屿上有供战斗机起降的跑道、雷达罩和导弹库。中国官员表示，它们将成为旅游天堂。一艘中国海军舰艇甲板上的中国和柬埔寨水兵。China’s base building has depended on state-owned companies, which are legally obligated to pursue the country’s national security interests, to make the initial forays. Chinese officials are blunt about the strategy: “First civilian, then military,” is how they put it.中国的军事基地建设依赖于国有企业的先行试水，这些企业在法律上有义务服务于国家安全利益。中国官员坦率地表明了策略：他们称之为“民转军”。Establishing a commercial beachhead is easier in countries where China already holds economic sway.在中国已经拥有经济影响力的国家，建立商业滩头阵地更为容易。In recent years, Cambodia has steadily marched into China’s arms. Its longtime leader, Hun Sen, used to excoriate the United States for linking its aid and investment to improvements in the country’s human rights record.近年来，柬埔寨逐渐投入中国的怀抱。该国长期领导人洪森曾指责美国将援助和投资与该国人权状况的改善挂钩。Now, Cambodia is led by Mr. Hun Sen’s son, Hun Manet, who, although a graduate of the United States Military Academy, has shown little inclination so far to recalibrate from his father’s pro-China bent.柬埔寨现任领导人是洪森的儿子洪玛奈，尽管他毕业于西点军校，到目前为止他几乎没有表现出要改变父亲亲中立场的意愿。Ream is 80 percent finished, according to its commander, Mr. Mey Dina. Military analysts expect that the base will be complete by the end of the year.据基地指挥官梅·迪纳称，云壤基地已经完成了80%。军事分析人士预计，该基地将于今年年底完工。Not far away, a Chinese company has carved out of once-protected jungle a runway long enough to accommodate bombers, which Cambodia does not have. The company says the airfield is largely intended for Chinese holiday-goers.在不远处，一家中国公司在曾经受到保护的丛林中开辟了一条足以容纳轰炸机起降的跑道，但柬埔寨并没有轰炸机。该公司表示，该机场主要是为中国游客服务的。That is reminiscent of the innocent explanations offered for the Chinese construction in the Spratlys and Djibouti, said Mr. Ear, the political scientist.政治学家厄尔说，这让人想起中国一脸无辜地解释斯普拉特利群岛和吉布提建设时的样子。“China downplays or misrepresents the military nature of its overseas installations,” he said. “Despite Cambodia’s denials, the lack of transparency and the close relationship between Cambodia and China suggest the possibility that Ream could follow this familiar playbook.”“中国淡化或隐瞒其海外设施的军事性质，”他说。“尽管柬埔寨否认，但缺乏透明度以及柬埔寨与中国的密切关系表明，云壤可能是在沿用老一套的策略。”Sun Narin自金边对本文有报道贡献。 翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看英文版互动报道。

Source: 援建基地还是永久驻军？中国在柬埔寨军事存在引争议