Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Geopolitics Are Once Again Driving Brent Crude Prices


On 21 November, we outlined a descending channel on the XBR/USD chart and noted that the bearish trend had been fuelled by easing geopolitical risks and hopes for an end to the war in Ukraine.

Ten days later, Brent crude is now trading above its late-November highs — once again driven by geopolitical developments.

Why is Oil Rising?
US President Donald Trump stated that the airspace over and around Venezuela "should be considered completely closed". This immediately led to flight cancellations, created a de facto blockade, and raised the threat of military action in an oil-rich region. This risk premium is being priced into the current rally.

In addition, OPEC+ members have confirmed they will postpone the production increases planned for early 2026 — setting the stage for a potential supply deficit, especially if Venezuelan exports are disrupted.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Santa Rally or Santa Crash? What History Says About December Volatility?



Every year, traders wait for the "Santa Rally" — the seasonal jump in stocks during the last week of December and the first two trading days of January. But history shows that December isn't always a calm or bullish month. While the S&P 500 has posted a Santa Rally in about 70% of the past 25 years, several Decembers have still ended in the red, including notable declines in 2002, 2018, and 2022.

Seasonality matters, but macro conditions often dominate. A firm Federal Reserve stance, year-end tax-loss selling, and thin holiday liquidity can all turn December into a more volatile period. 

So what could this December bring — a Santa Rally or a Santa Crash? The market may offer gifts, but history reminds us that risk management is the one thing traders can rely on.

Watch on YOUTUBE

#financialmarkets #financenews #financeshorts #S&P500 #stockmarket #santarally

[FXOpen Trader]

Euro and Pound Rally Slows: Focus Turns to EU and UK Data


European currencies opened the week under pressure after last week's upward momentum failed to extend further. EUR/USD and GBP/USD had been strengthening for several consecutive days, supported by soft US inflation data, which reduced expectations of a more aggressive Federal Reserve stance. However, both pairs encountered significant resistance zones and were unable to break through them, prompting profit-taking and a move lower.

Market attention is now firmly on upcoming macroeconomic releases from Europe and the UK. For the euro, key indicators will include business activity data, German consumer inflation figures, and industry sentiment surveys. Persistently weak inflation or further deterioration in economic indicators could place additional short-term pressure on the single currency.

The pound also remains sensitive to the data due out this week, with traders watching UK PMIs and retail sales reports. Despite last week's corrective rebound, GBP/USD failed to establish itself above key resistance levels, signalling investor caution ahead of major publications.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Index: Early December Chart Analysis


December is traditionally a favourable month for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen):
→ Since the 1950s, December has ended higher in over 70% of years.
→ Average monthly gain is around +1.0%.

Will the index rise in 2025? Much depends on the Federal Reserve meeting on 10 December, as well as other factors, including geopolitical developments. Interest is also piqued by an upcoming statement from Trump at the White House (today, 22:00 GMT+3), though the topic remains undisclosed.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Strategy (MSTR) Shows Signs of Hope After Dramatic Drop


The share price of Strategy Incorporated (MSTR), led by Michael Saylor, a well-known Bitcoin advocate, has plunged catastrophically, losing over 65% from its July highs.

While Bitcoin itself has declined by only around 30–35% from its autumn peaks, MSTR shares fell roughly twice as much. This may be linked to Saylor's strategy of heavily buying Bitcoin on borrowed funds – a tactic that amplified gains when crypto prices rose but intensified losses as BTC/USD fell, placing extra pressure on the company's market capitalisation and creating risks for MSTR shareholders.

Reports indicate that major funds, including BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity, sold significant holdings of MSTR shares in Q3, and JPMorgan has warned that MSTR could be removed from the Nasdaq 100.

Yesterday, the price dropped to its lowest level since last autumn. However, the chart offers tentative hope for bulls. The candle is notable because, although the price fell below $160, it closed above $170, showing that the decline did not fully continue.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: GBP/USD Maintains Upward Bias, EUR/GBP Gains Strength


GBP/USD is showing bullish signs above the 1.3180 zone. EUR/GBP is gaining pace and might extend its upward move above 0.8800.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today
- The British Pound is gaining pace above 1.3200 against the US Dollar.
- There is a declining channel forming with support at 1.3180 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
- EUR/GBP started a fresh increase above 0.8765 and 0.8775.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.8800 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a positive zone above 1.3080. The British Pound formed a base and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair gained pace for a move above 1.3130 and 1.3180. The pair even settled above 1.3200 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.3275 before there was a downside correction.

The pair dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3038 swing low to the 1.3275 high. However, the bulls are active above 1.3180. There is also a declining channel forming with support at 1.3180.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Intel (INTC) Shares Trade Above $40


Earlier, we highlighted the factors that helped Intel (INTC) shares recover strongly in 2025, including support from the U.S. government, leadership changes, investment from Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group, and more.

According to recent reports, Intel could gain a major new client in Apple (AAPL). Yahoo Finance cites analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who stated on X that Intel's prospects have "improved significantly." Intel may begin producing chips for Apple as early as 2027, potentially reducing reliance on Taiwan's TSMC.

Although there are no official confirmations, sentiment on the market is positive. Since the start of last week, INTC shares have risen by over 20%, reaching their highest level since spring 2024, breaking past the psychological $40 mark.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Natural Gas Price Nears Three-Year High in Early December


In mid-November, analysing the XNG/USD chart, we noted a rise in natural gas prices, outlined a system of trend channels, and suggested a possible pullback scenario.

Indeed, since then (as indicated by the arrow), U.S. gas prices retreated to the lower boundary of the orange ascending channel, forming a low at point B. From late November, renewed buying activity has been observed, driven by:

→ Seasonal factor: U.S. forecasts for December indicate below-average temperatures, sharply increasing demand for heating and electricity.

→ Export and geopolitics: The U.S. is exporting record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Europe continues to purchase U.S. gas to replace Russian supplies, while demand in Asia is also rising.

→ Anticipation of shortages: Due to high exports and early cold weather, traders are factoring in the risk that storage levels may deplete faster than usual.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Pair Reaches 1.5-Month High


This morning, the EUR/USD rate moved above 1.1680 during early trading — its highest level since mid-October. The main driver behind the rise is traders' assessment of the diverging policies of central banks. Based on the fundamental outlook ahead of the December meetings:

→ The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December under pressure from the Trump administration, making the dollar appear less profitable and less attractive.
→ The ECB, by contrast, has adopted a wait-and-see stance. Inflation in the Eurozone is close to target, and there seems to be no intention to cut rates aggressively for now.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Dollar under Pressure after ADP as Investors Brace for Key Data Releases


The US dollar continues to retreat following weaker-than-expected ADP figures, which strengthened expectations of a softer Federal Reserve stance. The US private sector created far fewer jobs than forecast, a development markets interpreted as a sign of potential labour-market cooling after the prolonged shutdown and break in official data releases. Against this backdrop, traders increased their bets on a more dovish tone from the Fed in the coming weeks.

Attention now turns to an incoming batch of macroeconomic reports from the US and Canada. These include US weekly jobless claims and fresh Canadian labour-market data. The releases may play a crucial role in shaping expectations ahead of the Fed's next meeting: softer numbers would reinforce speculation about an imminent rate cut, while moderately firm data could lend support to the dollar and help stabilise it.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

NIO Shares Drop Below $5


As the chart shows, the share price of NIO Inc. (NIO), the Chinese manufacturer of "smart" electric vehicles, has fallen by roughly 30% over the past month and this week slipped below $5 for the first time since mid-August.

Among the bearish drivers:
→ the latest quarterly report revealed gross revenue below analysts' expectations ($3.06bn versus $3.11bn);
→ a cautious outlook for vehicle deliveries in the upcoming quarter.

Market sentiment appears to have turned wary, given that:
→ the Chinese economy continues to show signs of slowing despite government stimulus;
→ NIO's revenue prospects may remain constrained by intense competition from BYD, XPeng and Li Auto — a particularly concerning factor as NIO launches new models and sub-brands.

Even so, the NIO share chart does offer some glimmers of optimism.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Analysis: Market Awaits Key Updates


The ADX indicator on the 4-hour XAU/USD chart has dropped to a multi-month low, signalling the absence of a clear trend.

At the same time, a technical assessment of price movements allows for the construction of a symmetrical triangle pattern with a central axis around $4,205 — indicating that the current price reflects an equal balance of major drivers, including:

→ Weakening conditions in the US labour market. According to media reports, ADP recorded an unexpected decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs, while Challenger reported 71,000 layoffs in November, bringing the total number of job cuts since the start of the year close to 1.17 million.

→ Rumours that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in May — a development that has strengthened expectations of more aggressive policy easing in 2026.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.