Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 7 - 11 July

Market Insights: RBA Cut in Focus, UK GDP Weakens, Canada Jobs, FOMC Clues, Tariff Deadline

From rate decisions to rising unemployment and tariff deadlines, this week's macro landscape is shaped by evolving dynamics and shifting momentum. If you're trading FX, commodities, or indices — this is a moment to pay close attention.

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week's biggest events:
— RBA Interest Rate Decision
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— Unemployment Rate in Canada
— FOMC Minutes
— Tariff Deadline

Don't miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey.




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Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Cyclical Stocks vs Non-Cyclical Stocks: How Can You Trade Them?


Not every stock is created equal. One of the biggest distinctions is cyclical vs non-cyclical—those that grow or decline alongside economic conditions and those that are less sensitive. In this article, we explore the key differences between the two, how to analyse both, and how to trade them.

What Are Cyclical Stocks?

Cyclical stocks are those that rise and fall in line with the broader economy. They're more sensitive to consumer spending and include those in the travel, automotive, construction, and luxury goods sectors.

Simply put, when consumers have more disposable income, they're likely to buy new cars, travel abroad, or invest in home improvements. Demand boosts corporate earnings and pushes share prices higher. However, when consumers have less money or face economic uncertainty, they reduce and delay spending on these discretionary purchases, dampening company earnings and stock valuations.

Nike and Starbucks are good examples here—both are cyclical companies that see higher demand when consumers are in a stronger financial position and feel comfortable purchasing brand-name clothes or buying coffee on the go.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Tesla (TSLA) Leads Declines in the Equity Market


Yesterday, President Trump announced that letters had been sent to the United States' trading partners regarding the imposition of new tariffs — for instance, a 25% tariff on goods from Japan and South Korea. This marks a return to "trade diplomacy" under the America First strategy. The tariffs are scheduled to take effect on 1 August, though the date remains subject to revision.

As we highlighted yesterday, bearish signals had begun to emerge in the US equity market. In response to the fresh wave of tariff-related headlines, the major indices moved lower. Leading the decline — and posting the worst performance among S&P 500 constituents — were shares of Tesla (TSLA). The sell-off followed news of a new initiative by Elon Musk, who now appears serious about launching a political "America Party" to challenge both the Republicans and Democrats.

Trump criticised his former ally's move on his Truth Social platform, and investors are increasingly concerned about the potential impact on Tesla's business. Tesla shares (TSLA) fell by more than 6.5% yesterday, accompanied by a broad bearish gap.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Australian Dollar Strengthens Following RBA Decision


Today, the AUD/USD pair experienced a spike in volatility. According to ForexFactory, analysts had forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut interest rates from 3.85% to 3.60%. However, the market was caught off guard as the central bank opted to keep rates unchanged.

The RBA stated the following:
→ It remains cautious in its inflation outlook and awaits further evidence confirming that inflation is on track to return to the 2.5% target.
→ The decision to hold the rate was made by a vote of six to three — a rare instance of a split opinion among committee members.

The initial market reaction to the RBA's unexpected move was a sharp appreciation of the Australian dollar. However, this was followed by a quick pullback in the minutes that followed (as indicated by the arrows).



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD Attempts Fresh Climb as NZD/USD Slips


AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from the 0.6485 support. NZD/USD is struggling and might decline below the 0.5980 level.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support at 0.6485 and recovered against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6535 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD is consolidating above the 0.5980 support.
  
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6010 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
  

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase above 0.6550. The Aussie Dollar tested the 0.6585 zone before the bears appeared and pushed it lower against the US Dollar.

The pair declined below the 0.6560 and 0.6550 support levels. The recent low was formed at 0.6485 and the pair is rising again. The bulls pushed it above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6588 swing high to the 0.6485 low.

The pair is now consolidating above the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the resistance is near the 0.6535 zone. There is also a key bearish trend line forming at 0.6535.

The first major resistance might be 0.6550 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level. An upside break above it might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6560 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6585 resistance zone.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Yen Under Pressure: Threat of New Tariffs from the US


The Japanese yen has come under pressure following reports of a potential reinstatement of trade tariffs by the United States. The USD/JPY and GBP/JPY currency pairs are exhibiting strong upward momentum as market participants assess the possible implications of Washington's escalating trade rhetoric for the Japanese currency.

According to reports on Truth Social, Donald Trump has sent official letters to the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and several other countries, signalling the possible introduction of new tariffs from 1 August. In a letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Trump stated: "Please understand that these tariffs are necessary to correct the many years of Japan's tariff, and non‑tariff, and trade barriers, causing unsustainable trade deficits against the United States."

Such statements have heightened investor concerns over a renewed round of trade wars, which has negatively impacted demand for the yen.

Today, market participants remain focused on the release of the FOMC minutes and US consumer confidence data. These events may provide further impetus for the US dollar; however, geopolitical factors remain in focus.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair has risen to 147.00, following the confirmation of a bullish harami pattern on the daily timeframe dated 2 July. If current conditions persist, the yen may continue to weaken, particularly if Tokyo does not adopt a firm retaliatory stance. Technical analysis of USD/JPY indicates the potential for a test of key resistance at 148.00–148.60. A downward correction may occur if the pair falls and consolidates below 146.00.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/JPY Hits 12-Month High


As the chart indicates, the EUR/JPY pair has risen above ¥172 per euro — a level last seen in July 2024.

Since early June, the exchange rate has increased by approximately 5.6%. This upward movement is driven by a combination of factors, including:

→ Divergence in central bank policy: The European Central Bank's key interest rate remains significantly higher than that of the Bank of Japan, making the euro more attractive in terms of yield compared to the yen.

→ US trade tariffs on Japan: The potential imposition of 25% tariffs by the United States on Japanese goods poses a threat to Japan's export-driven economy, placing downward pressure on the national currency.

→ Eurozone expansion and consolidation: News of Bulgaria's potential accession to the euro area is strengthening investor confidence in the single currency.

→ Weakness in the US dollar: As the US Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since early 2022 this July, demand for the euro has grown, positioning it as a key alternative reserve currency.

Can the rally continue?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Intel (INTC) Share Price Hits 3-Month High Without Clear Catalyst


Intel Corporation (INTC) stocks rose by over 7% yesterday, making them one of the top performers in the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen). As a result, the stock price reached its highest level in three months.

What's notable is the apparent lack of clear drivers behind the rally. According to Barron's, the increase in INTC shares could have been triggered by a rating upgrade from Wall Street analysts or a corporate announcement – yet no such developments have occurred. "Nothing new or fundamental," says Mizuho managing director and technology specialist Jordan Klein.

At the same time, from a technical analysis perspective, the INTC price chart is showing significant developments. Examining these price movements may provide clues as to what's fuelling the recent rise.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Three of the Best MACD Trading Strategies


The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is more than just a mouthful—it's a versatile trading indicator that has stood the test of time. This article unpacks the intricacies of this indicator and dives deep into three specific strategies that leverage the MACD with other powerful tools like the Stochastic Oscillator and Hull Moving Averages. Read on to sharpen your trading skills and enhance your toolkit.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Opportunities and Challenges of Emerging Market Trading


Title: Opportunities and Challenges of Emerging Markets | FXOpen

Description: Growth potential comes with high uncertainty when investing in emerging markets. Thoughtful trading accounts for both emerging market risks and rewards.

Emerging markets are typically found in developing regions and are characterised by rapid economic growth, high productivity levels, expanding populations, and increasing industrialisation. Their higher volatility compared to established markets presents both opportunities and risks for traders, while the less mature financial infrastructures and regulatory frameworks lead to increased uncertainty. In this article, we discuss the opportunities and challenges that these types of markets offer.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Nvidia Market Capitalisation Reaches $4 Trillion


Yesterday, Nvidia's (NVDA) share price surpassed $162 for the first time in history. As a result, the company's market capitalisation briefly exceeded $4 trillion during intraday trading (according to CNBC), making Nvidia the first publicly listed company to reach this milestone.

The rise in NVDA's share price is being driven by both bullish sentiment across the broader equity market—which appears optimistic ahead of the upcoming Q2 earnings season—and evidence of sustained demand for Nvidia's products, as artificial intelligence technologies continue to gain widespread adoption.

Noteworthy developments include:
→ Nvidia may begin producing a specialised AI chip for the Chinese market this autumn, potentially circumventing current export restrictions;
→ Perplexity, a company backed by Nvidia, is launching an AI-powered browser aimed at competing with Google Chrome.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Euro in Focus – Markets on Alert


The euro is holding firm after a notable rally in recent weeks. Both the EUR/USD and EUR/JPY currency pairs are showing signs of consolidation, as markets cautiously assess the outlook against the backdrop of a packed economic calendar. Traders remain in wait-and-see mode — a stance that could serve as a platform for either a renewed upward impulse or a potential correction, should upcoming data disappoint expectations.

Investors are closely monitoring a series of key macroeconomic indicators set for release in the coming hours, including Germany's consumer price index, Italy's industrial production figures, and the PCSI consumer sentiment index across major eurozone economies. These reports will help gauge whether the euro's current strength is justified, and how consumers and businesses are responding to a strong currency.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policy remains in the spotlight. In June, the ECB cut interest rates amid a strengthening euro and easing inflationary pressures. The market will now scrutinise the rhetoric of ECB officials to assess their concerns about further euro appreciation and its implications for exports and inflation targets. Remarks from Luis de Guindos, who recently warned against "excessive appreciation", underscore how sensitive monetary policy has become to current exchange rate levels.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The Influence of Central Banks on Forex Trading


The global foreign exchange (Forex) market constitutes a vast and intricate financial ecosystem in which currencies from across the globe are traded. This marketplace witnesses the exchange of trillions of dollars on a daily basis, rendering it among the most liquid and dynamic markets on earth. Amidst this bustling activity, central banks play a pivotal role, especially through their institutional obligation to determine and conduct the country's monetary policy. In this article, we will delve into the crucial influence that these major players exert on currency pairs and explore the role of central banks in the forex market.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Coinbase (COIN) Shares Reach All-Time High


According to the chart of Coinbase Global (COIN), the share price of the cryptocurrency exchange has reached a historical all-time high (closing price).

The bullish sentiment has been supported by the following factors:
→ Bitcoin price rally. Yesterday, we analysed the BTC/USD chart and anticipated that bulls might attempt to set a new record. Following the publication, Bitcoin made a strong upward move, breaking above the $118,000 level.

→ Passage of the GENIUS bill in the US, which establishes a regulatory framework for the use of stablecoins.

Can COIN stock continue to climb?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

US Dollar Strengthens Following Trump's Tariff Decision


US President Donald Trump has announced his decision to impose new tariffs:
→ For Canada, tariffs are set at 35%. They are scheduled to take effect on 1 August, although negotiations may take place before this date, potentially influencing Trump's final stance.
→ For many other countries, tariffs may be set at 15% or 20%;
→ For the European Union, the exact tariff levels have not yet been disclosed.

Overall, Trump's latest comments have added to the uncertainty surrounding the specific tariffs to be applied to each country. The financial markets reacted as follows:
→ The US dollar strengthened against other currencies (including the Canadian dollar);
→ Equity markets saw a modest decline.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.