Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: Gold and Oil Prices Soar, More Gains Ahead?


Gold price started a fresh increase above the $2,342 resistance level. Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might soon test $85.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a steady increase from the $2,320 zone against the US Dollar.
• A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support near $2,355 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices extended gains above the $82.00 and $83.00 resistance levels.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $82.75 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $2,320 zone. The price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $2,330 level.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,335. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,355 resistance zone. Finally, the bears appeared near $2,365. A high was formed near $2,364.89 and the price is now consolidating gains.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

US Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls: Possible Scenarios


In anticipation of the release of one of the most important reports, the NonFarm Payrolls, the US currency has suffered losses across almost all fronts. Earlier this week, the EUR/USD currency pair tested and settled above 1.0800, GBP/USD traded above 1.2700, and USD/CAD fell back to 1.3610.

Today, we might see either continued corrective pullbacks or a resumption of medium-term trends if the employment data deviates from expectations. So, what should we expect?

• Experts forecast a decline in average earnings to 0.3% (if the figure comes in at last month's level or higher, it could strengthen the US currency).
• The number of new jobs in June is expected to be 194K (if the figure is significantly higher or lower than the forecast, it could cause volatility in major currency pairs).

USD/CAD

Dollar buyers in the USD/CAD pair failed to overcome resistance at 1.3750. A rebound from this level led to the formation of a "bearish engulfing" pattern on the daily timeframe. According to the technical analysis of USD/CAD, the price has approached the lower boundary of the medium-term flat corridor at 1.3610. If the price consolidates below this level in the coming trading sessions, the downward movement could continue towards 1.3520-1.3480. A rebound from 1.3610 could lead to a retest of 1.3700-1.3660.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

GOOG Stock Sets Historic Record


As the chart shows, the GOOG stock price yesterday surpassed the June 27th high and set a historic record at $185.88.

What contributed to this?
→ Overall bullish sentiment in the US stock market. Incidentally, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) also set a historic record yesterday;
→ Positive market expectations ahead of the second-quarter earnings report from Alphabet (Google's parent company);
→ Benzinga reports positive prospects, particularly highlighting the development of YouTube and language models.

Out of 38 analysts surveyed by TipRanks, 32 recommend buying Google stock. The average price forecast is $199 in 12 months.

But why then is Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai selling over $4 million worth of company shares? According to the Form 4 filed with the SEC, Sundar sold a total of 22,500 shares.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

FTSE 100 Index Behaves Bullishly Amid Elections


On Friday, the FTSE 100 index rose by 0.4% to 8273 points, continuing its 0.9% rise on Thursday. According to Trading Economics, the centre-left Labour Party, as expected, won the parliamentary elections and secured a majority, ousting the Conservative Party after 14 years in power.

The Labour Party emphasised the importance of economic stability in its decisions and committed to strict budgetary spending rules.

Prime Minister Sunak conceded defeat, and the UK stock market positively received the official election results. As shown by the chart, the FTSE 100 index (UK 100 on FXOpen) has risen by approximately 1.9% from the July 2nd low.

However, the situation remains unfavourable for the bulls.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

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Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: S&P 500, USD/CAD, Gold Price, TSLA Stock

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• S&P 500: Mid-Year Prospects Analysis
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• Gold Price Prospects for H2
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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

#fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenint #weeklyvideo

[FXOpen Trader]

The EUR/GBP rate fluctuates under the influence of political factors


On 10th June, we wrote that the EUR/GBP rate fell to a 21-month low after the European Parliament elections. Political fundamental factors continue to influence this pair.

As Reuters reports:

→ The euro is down on Monday amid unexpectedly strong results for the left-wing forces in the French elections, which has created new uncertainty regarding the country’s financial outlook.

→ The pound sterling has risen to a 3.5-week high against the US dollar, as the British currency strengthens following the Labour Party’s decisive victory in last week’s elections, ending 14 years of Conservative rule.

Therefore, it is not surprising that a bearish gap formed on the EUR/GBP chart at the start of the week – however, bulls managed to recoup the decline during the Asian session. How will events unfold from here?



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Brent Crude Oil Price Hits the Highest Level Since 1 May


Analysing the oil price on 19th June, we wrote that:

→ Amidst increasing demand for oil during the holiday season, Goldman Sachs analysts suggested that by the end of summer, the Brent price could rise to $86 per barrel with an upper limit around $90.

→ The price could reach the upper boundary of a narrowing triangle that originated in 2022-2023 – technically, this is a significant resistance level.

As the Brent crude oil price chart (XBR/USD) shows, the price has reached the upper boundary of the triangle since then. How will events unfold from here?



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Price Falls from Six-Week High


As shown by the XAU/USD chart, on Friday, 5 July, the price of gold rose above the $2390 level for the first time since 22 May. According to Reuters, this increase occurred following the release of key US employment data, which indicated a softening labour market, raising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.

However, yesterday, Monday, the gold price fell to $2360 per ounce – the level from which Friday's ascent began. This suggests that the bulls were unable to maintain control over the market, which indicates a bearish sign.
Could the Gold Price Decline in the Coming Days?

From a technical analysis perspective of the XAU/USD chart:

• The gold market has clear support around the $2300 area. Each time the price fell below this level in June (as indicated by arrows), it quickly rebounded upwards, demonstrating sustained demand.
• Price action since April provides enough reference points to establish a descending channel (shown in red). The recent bearish reversal returned the price within this channel, reinforcing resistance from its upper boundary.
• There is also reason to believe that the bullish breakout of local resistance (shown in black) might be false.

Therefore, signs of seller activity in the $2380-2400 range suggest that the gold price could continue to decline towards the important support at $2300.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

American Currency Adjusts Ahead of Jerome Powell’s Speech


A rather weak employment report, published late last week, contributed to the weakening of the American dollar. According to the published data:

• The unemployment rate in June increased to 4.1% (experts’ forecast: 4.0%);
• The actual number of new jobs was slightly higher than analysts predicted (206K vs 191K).

According to Bloomberg Economics experts, the US labour market is starting to slow down significantly, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as the September meeting. It is quite possible that more clues about the Fed’s future monetary policy will be provided to market participants by the end of the week, as important press conferences and macroeconomic data releases are expected in the upcoming trading sessions.

USD/JPY


Technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair indicates the possibility of a continued downward correction, as a "bearish engulfing" pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. The pattern can be considered partially worked out, as the price has decreased by more than 100 pips and has almost tested the significant support at 160.00 since it formed on the chart.

The price behaviour in the 160.30-159.80 range will demonstrate the sellers' strength. If the price consolidates below this range, the downward movement may resume with renewed vigour. Conversely, if the pair rises above 162.00, it could lead to the start of a new upward impulse.

The following events could impact the pair's price:

• Today at 17:00 (GMT +3): Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell;
• Today at 17:00 (GMT +3): Speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Analysis of NZD/USD: The "kiwi" sharply fell after the central bank's decision


The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday.

The decision to maintain the interest rate was anticipated. However, market participants noted a shift in the tone of the RBNZ's official statements. In May, the bank indicated that the tight policy would continue as long as necessary, but now it is open to easing the restrictive monetary policy if inflation slows down.

As a result, market participants are now considering the possibility of a nearer-term rate cut, which led to a decline in the New Zealand dollar relative to other currencies.

Specifically, against the US dollar, the "kiwi" fell by approximately 0.75%.

Will the decline continue as the situation develops?



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Analysts Raise NVDA Forecasts, Stock Price Rises


According to FactSet, in July, seven reputable analysts have raised their target prices for NVDA stock. KeyBanc analyst John Vinh, for instance, increased his target from $130 to $180 (approximately 33% above the current price).

Following these target increases, Nvidia's stock has risen, closing above the psychological level of $130 yesterday for the first time since June 20. Consequently, NVDA's price has increased by more than 160% since the start of the year.

Will Nvidia's rally continue?

The NVDA chart data raises doubts about the stock's ability to confidently set new historical highs as it did in the first half of the year.


TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Jumps, USD/JPY Bulls Seem Unstoppable


EUR/USD is climbing higher above the 1.0800 level. USD/JPY surged above the 160.00 and 161.40 resistance levels.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a decent increase above the 1.0780 pivot level.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0820 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 160.50 and 161.40 levels.
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 161.55 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 1.0710 zone. The Euro cleared a few key hurdles near 1.0780 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above the 1.0800 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.0845 and the pair is now consolidating gains. There was a test of the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0710 swing low to the 1.0845 high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Markets Awaiting US Inflation Data: What is the Probability of Trend Reversals?


The major currency pairs are in a holding pattern following the release of the latest US labour market data and Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress. The Fed Chair noted that the Federal Reserve has made "significant progress" in its mission to combat inflation, but emphasized the need for "more good data" before lowering interest rates. Judging by the movements of the major currency pairs, the market appears sceptical of the Fed Chair's statements:

• The AUD/USD pair has refreshed the May highs of the current year and strengthened above 0.6700.
• The USD/CAD pair is trading near strategic support at 1.3610.
• The GBP/USD pair is approaching the March highs near 1.2900.

As we can see, the US dollar is slowly but surely losing ground in many directions, but by the end of the week, existing trends could either slow down or change direction dramatically.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

GBP/USD Hits Four-Month High Following GDP Growth News


day, the UK Office for National Statistics published data showing an increase in GDP.

According to Forex Factory:

→ A month ago, GDP was at 0.0% month-on-month;

→ This month, analysts had forecasted growth of 0.2%;

→ Actual growth reached 0.4%.

This news should be welcomed by the Labour Party, which has come into power with ambitious plans for economic development.

On the other hand, how will the Bank of England respond? The GDP growth might provide an argument for maintaining high interest rates for a longer period to ensure that fears of a new inflationary surge do not materialise.

As Bloomberg reports, markets currently assess the likelihood of a rate cut at the next Bank of England meeting on 1 August at just under 50%.

Financial markets reacted with a rise in the sterling's value against other currencies. The GBP/USD rate is at its highest level since early March.
Will the Growth Continue?

The GBP/USD chart shows that the price is in a rally, having risen by 1.7% since the beginning of July.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

PepsiCo Stock Rebounds from Yearly Low Ahead of Earnings Report


The PepsiCo stock chart indicates:

→ Yesterday, the price dropped below $161, setting a new low for 2024.

→ However, by the end of the trading day, the price rose above $163.3, closing near the day's high.

This bullish intraday behaviour might suggest positive sentiment emerging ahead of today's earnings report.

According to Dow Jones Newswires:

→ PepsiCo's management anticipates organic revenue growth of 4% and an 8% increase in earnings per share in 2024.

→ The consensus among analysts tracked by FactSet is a 3% rise in sales and a 7% increase in earnings.

PepsiCo's stock has fallen by 9% over the past two months. Investors are concerned that demand might suffer due to rising prices from inflation and the growing popularity of weight-loss drugs, which could curb people's cravings for snacks and sugary drinks.



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT THE FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.