Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

Ethereum Price Falls after Exceeding $3,000


We previously wrote about the reasons for the positive sentiment in the ETH/USD market.

Optimism was added by a post on X (Twitter) by Vitalik Buterin about the so-called Werkle trees. This technology, which should (according to the information in the roadmap) be introduced in the future, it includes the advantages of:
→ reduced requirements for validators;
→ faster network synchronization, and others.

The ETH/USD chart shows that:
→ ETH price is within a larger uptrend (shown in orange);
→ the price is within the February bullish trend (shown by blue lines);
→ the market is in an overbought state, judging by the bearish divergence on the MACD indicator.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

NVDA Share Price Soars 11% after Report


The signs of concern we wrote about yesterday have largely subsided. After three days of declines, the price of E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures bounced off the lower boundary of the channel (see yesterday's chart) and rose, led by NVDA stock.

Nvidia's quarterly report exceeded expectations:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 5.16, expected = USD 4.59;
→ gross revenue: actual = USD 22.10 billion, expected = USD 20.39 billion.

According to the head of the company:
→ Accelerated computing and generative AI have reached a tipping point.
→ Demand for computing is growing worldwide among companies, industries and governments.
→ The coming year will bring major new product cycles with exceptional innovations that will help propel the industry forward.

In post-market trading, NVDA's price rose 11% to over USD 740 per share. Thus, the price increase for NVDA since the beginning of 2024 is about 50%.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Showing Signs of Strength


Today news was published about the values of PMI indices for European economies. Data from France was encouraging:
→ French Flash Manufacturing PMI: actual = 46.8, expected = 43.5, a month ago = 43.1;
→ French Flash Services PMI: actual = 48.0, expected = 45.7, a month ago = 45.4.

Data from Germany were less optimistic, so the euro's rise was interrupted, but in the end the euro still rose in price on this news relative to other currencies.

For example, the price of EUR/JPY broke through the resistance level of 163 yen per euro — the euro rose to this level for the first time since November last year.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Commodity Currencies Strengthen after the FOMC Minutes Publication


The fundamental data of recent trading sessions contributed to a slight strengthening of commodity and European currencies. Thus, the AUD/USD pair, after forming a bullish engulfing combination, managed to confidently gain a foothold above 0.6500. The pound/US dollar currency pair retested the support at 1.2540 and went above 1.2600, and greenback sellers in the US dollar/loonie pair are trying to break the support at 1.3500.

GBP/USD


The price of the pound on the GBP/USD chart has been trading for the third week in a rather narrow range of 1.2680-1.2540. Apparently, to enter new positions, investors need a more important foundation than the publication of the FOMC protocols. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, whose speech took place on Tuesday at 13:15 GMT+3, also failed to inspire market participants to make new entries.

Today at 12:30 GMT+3, we are waiting for the publication of data on the business activity index in the UK services sector for February. At 17:45 GMT+3, the business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for the same period will be released. Also at 18:00 GMT+3, data on sales on the secondary housing market for January will be published, and at the very beginning of the American session, weekly figures on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be released.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Grind Higher Steadily


AUD/USD is moving higher and might rally if it clears 0.6600. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.6220 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar is moving higher from the 0.6540 zone against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6555 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is showing positive signs above the 0.6180 support.
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6190 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained stable near the 0.6500 zone, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Aussie Dollar formed a base and started a decent increase above the 0.6540 resistance against the US Dollar

The bulls pushed the pair above the 0.6550 resistance zone. There was a close above the 0.6565 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The pair is now consolidating near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6595 swing high to the 0.6542 low. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6575.

The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6595 swing high to the 0.6542 low is also near 0.6575. The first major resistance might be 0.6600. An upside break above the 0.6600 resistance might send the pair further higher.

The next major resistance is near the 0.6650 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6720 resistance zone.

If not, the pair might correct lower below the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6555. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6555. The next support could be 0.6540. If there is a downside break below the 0.6540 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6510 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6450.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Nvidia's Successes Helps S&P 500 Price Reach Its All-time High


Yesterday, the price of the S&P 500 stock index rose to record closing highs on Thursday. Moreover, such a growth rate (+2.11% per day) has not been observed for 13 months.

Reasons for Extremely Bullish Sentiment:
→ Nvidia's report, which showed impressive earnings and prospects (the company forecasts roughly threefold revenue growth in the first quarter of 2024 amid strong demand for its AI chips). Nvidia's capitalization grew by USD 277 billion in one day — a historical record for the US stock market.
→ Positive news background for yesterday: the US Flash Manufacturing PMI index was actually = 51.5, expected = 50.5, a month ago = 50.7. Signals from the labor market were also positive - the weekly number of applications for unemployment benefits turned out to be = 201k (expected = 217k).

Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart shows that the price continues to move within the ascending channel, which has been in effect since the beginning of 2024 (shown in blue).



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Bitcoin Price Risks Not Staying above $50k


On February 14, a strong bullish impulse was recorded in the BTC/USD market, which pushed the price of bitcoin to the area above USD 50k.

The main driver of growth was the effect of the launch of a bitcoin ETF. More than a month has passed since this event, and according to media reports, the ETF has seen an influx of more than USD 7 billion. For example, BlackRock has about 125k bitcoins on its balance sheet to support its ETF fund.

Also adding to the positive mood among market participants is news about the benefits received by companies that invested in bitcoin: MicroStrategy, Block and others. Among the latest news is Reddit's decision to invest in bitcoin.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Start To News-heavy Week


After 8 consecutive days of growth, the price of NZD/USD is forming a bearish candle this morning, thereby indicating possible concerns among market participants at the beginning of a week full of important economic news:

→ On Wednesday, at 4:00 GMT+3, the RBNZ decision on interest rates will be published. There will also be a press conference by the leadership of the Central Bank.
→ On the same day, at 16:30 GMT+3, news about US GDP is expected.
→ On Thursday, at 16:30 GMT+3, inflation data in the United States will be published, namely Core PCE Price Index GMT+3.

Note that in 2023, the NZD/USD price behaved bearishly, forming a downward channel (shown in red).



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The US Continues to Trump the Euro Economy on Key Metrics, But What Is Next?


A clear measure of public confidence in a national economy, as well as the ability to access a key component of it, is how many new homes are being sold compared to previous months.

There are a number of important factors that point to the overall health of a nation and its population's finances, which are demonstrated by this, for example, the ability for people to access mortgages and pay reasonable interest on the repayments, creditworthiness and the ability to repay those mortgages, and enough confidence that there will be a market for the homes that a construction company would see fit to invest in buying the land and endure the upfront costs of building homes.

Today, in the United States, new home sales figures for January 2024 will be announced, and the expected figure, according to many economic calendars, is around 680,000 new homes sold in January this year compared to 664,000 in the same period last year.

Interest rate increases have burdened mortgage holders as well as those making repayments on unsecured borrowing over recent years, and the same interest rate increases have caused corporations - including homebuilders - to have to pay more toward their monthly borrowing over this period of high-interest rates.

By their very nature, interest rate rises are designed to curb spending in order to reduce inflation, and in the context of property construction and purchase by domestic customers, it is clear that a rising interest rate would likely have an effect on buyers as well as construction companies.

However, the strength of the US economy has once again shown its mettle over the past few days, as the US Dollar has been strong against other majors. Looking at the EURUSD pair, considerable volatility has been evident. At 9.10 am UK time this morning, the EURUSD was trading at 1.08347, which shows a slight upturn in fortune for the Euro, which on February 20 had stood at 1.07750.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Exchange Rates Consolidate at the Beginning of the Week


Trading participants continue to evaluate the prospects for a change in the US Federal Reserve's monetary course against the backdrop of the publication of the minutes of the January meeting. Officials reiterated their cautious stance on lowering borrowing costs and, moreover, expressed concern about the possibility of shifting too early to dovish rhetoric. The document strengthened investor confidence that the adjustment of parameters could be postponed until the second half of the year, which strengthens the US dollar’s position against its main competitors: at the moment, more and more investors are counting on the first adjustment to borrowing costs in June, but these expectations are also regularly revised. In the US, the publication of January statistics on the dynamics of sales of new homes is expected during the day: in the previous period, the figure increased by 8.0% month-on-month to 0.644 million units. On Tuesday, February 27, the US will release February statistics on durable goods orders and consumer confidence. Forecasts suggest a slowdown in the dynamics of orders for durable goods excluding transport from 0.5% to 0.2%.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair shows a slight decline, holding at 1.0820. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0888, a break higher could trigger a rise towards 1.0960. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0812, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0760.
Today investors will pay attention to the speech of ECB head Christine Lagarde. In the EU, February data on inflation dynamics will be presented at the end of the week: the consumer price index is expected to slow down from 2.8% to 2.5% in annual terms, and the core indicator - from 3.3% to 2.9%. Traders continue to evaluate German data on GDP and business optimism released on Friday. Thus, the German economy in the fourth quarter of 2023 lost another 0.3% on a quarterly basis and 0.4% on an annual basis. The IFO business optimism index in February adjusted from 85.2 points to 85.5 points, which coincided with analysts’ forecasts, the indicator for assessing the current situation remained at 86.9 points with expectations at 86.7 points, and the economic expectations index increased from 83.5 points to 84.1 points, while experts expected 84.0 points.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD shows that a new upward channel has formed based on last week’s highs. Now the price is near the lower border and may continue to rise.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Eye More Upsides


Gold price started a decent increase above the $2,028 resistance level. Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might rise toward $80.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price started a decent increase from the $2,015 zone against the US Dollar.
• A key contracting triangle is forming with support near $2,028 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices rallied above the $76.55 and $77.00 resistance levels.
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $77.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price found support near the $2,015 zone. The price formed a base and started a fresh increase above the $2,020 level.

There was a decent move above the 50-hour simple moving average and $2,028. The bulls pushed the price above the $2,035 resistance zone. Finally, the bears appeared near $2,040, A high was formed near $2,039.44 and the price is now consolidating gains.

The recent low was formed at $2,028 and the price is now consolidating near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,039 swing high to the $2,028 low.

The RSI is still stable near 40 and the price could aim for more gains. Immediate resistance is near the $2,035 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,039 swing high to the $2,028 low.

The next major resistance is near the $2,040 level. An upside break above the $2,040 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,050. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,065 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,028 zone. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with support near $2,028. If there is a downside break below the $2,028 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,015 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

AAPL Share Price Rises Nearly 1% after Scrapping Electric Vehicle Plans


In 2021, the release of an electric car from Apple was expected in 2025, in 2022, the deadline was shifted to 2026. As it became known yesterday from Bloomberg and WSJ, Apple decided to completely abandon the project.

Causes for this decision:
→ the electric vehicle market turned out to be not so turbulent;
→ production and technological difficulties;
→ the strong development of electric vehicle construction in China may also have played a role.

Some employees will be fired, others will be transferred to a more promising department related to developments in the field of AI. Despite the fact that the ambitious project, which lasted about 10 years, failed, the price of AAPL shares rose by almost 1% yesterday as a result of trading — perhaps investors positively assessed the reorientation from electric vehicles to a more promising direction related to AI.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Australian Dollar Weakens amid Inflation News


According to data published today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) value was: actual 3.4%, expected = 3.6%, a month ago = 3.4%, 2 months ago = 4.3%.

Data shows Australia's consumer price growth rate is slowing, approaching targets of around 2%. This means less pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is pursuing tight monetary policy to combat inflation. Thus, the prospect of lower interest rates makes the Australian dollar weaker relative to other currencies.

For example, the reaction to news about inflation in Australia, which was below expectations, was the fall in the price of AUD/USD.

Technical analysis of the AUD/USD chart shows that:
→ the price of AUD/USD continues to develop in a downward channel (shown in red);
→ the price has broken through the important level 0.6535, which served as support since last week, but now, perhaps, will again begin to provide resistance, as it did in the first half of February;
→ in February, a bearish SHS pattern formed.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Brent Crude Oil Makes Sudden Rally As OPEC Countries Mull Low Output


Crude oil is a particularly unusual substance in that it is one of the only consumable commodities that institutions and private individuals widely trade across the spectrum of global markets, and it is a staple component as an energy resource in most aspects of everyday life, yet its value is maintained by a cartel made up of the central governments of the nations that extract it from the earth.

This combination of completely unique circumstances and operational conditions means that the requirement for crude oil to perform its task as a basis for fuels combined with the method by which the OPEC+ countries are able to control its price via aligning to reduce or increase production and distribution makes for an interesting marketplace.

This week, news surfaced across mainstream media around the possibility that the OPEC+ countries may consider an extension of the reduction in crude oil production and supply that is currently in place.

The current level of production and supply that has been set by the OPEC+ countries is subject to a reduction, which was agreed on in November 2022 during a meeting of the OPEC+ nations led by the Russian Federation. At that time, a reduction of approximately 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day was agreed. However, this week, there has been some thought that the OPEC+ nations may consider extending this reduced amount of production into the second quarter of this year.

Fuel prices have steadily been rising on the consumer side, meaning that the cost of refined fuel oils has had to factor these reductions in, and perhaps motorists may have noticed that unleaded fuel and diesel oil for road vehicles have crept up in price very slightly over the past month or so, however, should the extension of a reduced output take place, the wider effect could make its way onto the financial markets, where oil is traded as a commodity.

Over the course of the past day, US Brent Crude Oil has risen in price dramatically. According to FXOpen charts, Brent Crude Oil concluded the trading day on February 26 at $80.51 per barrel, whereas it begins the trading day today at $82.24 per barrel.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

BTC/USD Price Exceeds $60,000 Per Coin


Several factors contributed to this:

→ Effect associated with the approval of Bitcoin ETF. The media writes that investments in these financial instruments amount to about 9k bitcoins per day, and miners produce only 900 bitcoins per day. The total investment in the Bitcoin ETF after approval on January 11 is approaching USD 50 billion. By comparison, just over USD 90 billion is invested in the 19 largest gold ETFs.

→ Expectations that Ethereum ETFs will be approved in the future, simplifying access to investments in the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization.

→ Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates. Cheaper credit means greater appetite for investment in higher-risk assets.

→ Expectations for the halving (scheduled for April), after which a bull market usually begins.

In mid-February, we wrote that the price of Bitcoin did not show bullish progress after exceeding the psychological level of USD 50k per Bitcoin. Technical analysis of the Bitcoin chart shows that this was due to resistance (shown by the arrow) from the median line of the green ascending channel, within which the market has been developing since the fall of 2023. Yesterday's rise, which followed the breakdown of the psychological level of 60k US dollars per bitcoin, marked the upper limit of this channel just above 64k US dollars per bitcoin and made it possible to update its contours.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.