Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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S&P 500 Rebounds Despite Boeing's Commercial Disaster


Stock markets in the United States have been very interesting over recent years. However, it has not just been a case of following the volatile tech stocks on the NASDAQ, as the more traditional companies that are included in the S&P 500 can also make waves.

This week, the S&P 500 index has experienced a very sudden change in fortunes, showing a noticeably different pattern compared to its very strong growth that has been consistent since November 2023.

At FXOpen, the S&P 500 index stood at 4,119 points on October 27 before beginning a substantial rally in which it increased over several weeks before touching 4,780 points on January 1 this year.

Such a strong rally showed consistent growth among the most prestigious large-cap companies on the American stock markets, demonstrating remarkable progress in the growth of the US economy overall; however, whilst the country itself may be back on track, there is one extremely high-profile aspect that has begun to dampen the progress made since November with regard to the S&P 500 index.

This week, in the aftermath of the incident, which took place in Portland, Oregon, in which a Boeing 737-9 MAX aircraft had made an emergency landing after a section of its fuselage disconnected from the aircraft mid-flight, there have been severe repercussions for its manufacturer.

Seattle-based Boeing Company, which is one of the world's largest civilian aircraft manufacturers, is a key component of the S&P 500 index, and its share price has been affected by this incident, which builds further on a previous issue in which a similar model of aircraft, a Boeing 737-8 MAX operated by Ethiopian Airlines crashed due to an innate design fault in 2019 killing 157 people with an ongoing litigation having cost Boeing approximately $20 billion so far.

This latest incident has caused Boeing stock to dive, and this week, the S&P 500's previously unstoppable rally ended, taking the value down to 4,694 on January 4 at FXOpen.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Strengthens ahead of Inflation Data Release


Yesterday, the US dollar rose against all major currencies, as it is unclear when the Fed will lower rates. The main economic data this week will be the December consumer price inflation report, which is scheduled to be released on Thursday. Expectations call for headline inflation to increase 0.2% month-on-month, reaching 3.2% year-on-year growth. If data confirms that inflation continues to slow, it could increase expectations of a rate cut in March.

A New York Fed survey released Monday showed consumers see lower inflation and slower growth in household income and spending over the next few years. Last week's better-than-expected employment figures, coupled with the latest Fed minutes that expressed ambiguity about the timing of rate cuts, have dampened expectations of an imminent US policy easing. The dollar is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) business optimism index rose from 90.6 points to 91.9 points in December, while analysts expected 90.7 points, and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index rose from 40.0 points in January to 44.7 points with a forecast of 42.0 points.

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0930. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.1045. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0910, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0875.

Yesterday, the positions of the single currency came under pressure, but traders expect the emergence of new drivers for making trading decisions. Investors are concerned about the development of the crisis in the EU and, in particular, in Germany, which could be aggravated by large-scale protests by farmers across the country. In turn, German data on the dynamics of industrial production in November showed a decrease of 0.7% after -0.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected moderate growth of 0.25%, and in annual terms the decline accelerated from -3.4% to -4.8%.

The same trading range with boundaries of 1.0875 and 1.1000 remains. Now the price is in the middle of the range and may continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD Analysis: The Yen Resumes Its Decline, the Euro and the Pound Test Important Levels


Towards the end of the current five-day trading period, in most currency pairs we are seeing a continuation of the sluggish flat movement. Thus, the pound/US dollar pair is trading near last week’s highs at 1.2770, the euro/US dollar pair is trying to get closer to the psychological level of 1.1000, and commodity currencies are also caught in narrow flat corridors. But the US dollar/yen pair paints a slightly different picture. After a downward pullback last Friday, buyers of the pair found support at 143.40 and strengthened the price by more than 100 points in just one day. We will see whether it will be possible to maintain the upward mood for the pair today after the publication of inflation data in the United States.

USD/JPY


Negative fundamental data from Japan published this week contributed to the resumption of the downward movement in the yen. Thus, the household expenditure index in November was at -2.9% against the forecast of -2.3%. The total income of employees in the form of wages in Japan also decreased over the same period: 0.2% versus 1.5%. As a result of such data, the price almost tested last week’s high at 146.00. If buyers manage to strengthen the pair above the mentioned level, the price may continue to rise in the direction of 147.00-148.00. A downward breakdown of the range 144.00-143.00 may contribute to a decline to the December extremes at 140.80-140.30.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Eye Key Upside Break


AUD/USD is moving higher and might rally if it clears 0.6725. NZD/USD is also rising and could extend its increase above the 0.6255 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6680 and 0.6695 levels against the US Dollar.
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6715 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is showing positive signs above the 0.6220 support.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6255 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6650 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6680 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls pushed the pair above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6725 swing high to the 0.6647 low. There was a close above the 0.6695 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average.

Finally, the pair spiked above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6725 swing high to the 0.6647 low. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near a key bearish trend line at 0.6715.

The first major resistance might be 0.6725. An upside break above the 0.6725 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6750 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward the 0.6820 resistance zone.

If not, the pair might correct lower below the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6695. The next support could be 0.6680. If there is a downside break below the 0.6680 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6650 zone. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6600.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

BTC/USD price and the “Three Black Crows” pattern


On January 11, the highly publicized Bitcoin ETF began trading after it was officially approved by the SEC. On this day, the price of Bitcoin exceeded USD 48,800, as shown by the chart. Bloomberg writes that new US spot funds achieved net inflows of USD 819 million in the first two days of trading.

However, from the high on January 11, a dizzying fall began, and already at the low on January 12, Bitcoin was worth less than USD 41,800. This dynamic may illustrate the “buy the rumors, sell the facts” strategy, which we wrote about on January 3 when predicting the price of Bitcoin in 2024.

News of the ETF's approval sent the ATR above 1,100 on the 4-hour chart, the last time it did so was in mid-June 2022. The market was overly active, and what is important is that three bearish candles (marked with an arrow) summed up this activity. They can be interpreted as the three black crows pattern.

According to statistics from Tim Bulkowski, this pattern works in 78% of cases and means a trend change from bullish to bearish. According to CandleScanner statistics for 20 years, collected on the S&P 500 index market, the pattern turned out to be false only in 18.6% of cases out of 543 occurrences.

Does this mean that the statistics will work on the Bitcoin price chart?





Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD Analysis: The Dollar Declines after the Release of Data on the Producer Price Index


The dollar fell on Friday after US producer prices fell unexpectedly in December, fueling expectations of an imminent US rate cut. The final demand producer price index decreased by 0.1%, which was due to a decrease in the cost of goods. Prices for services remained unchanged last month, raising the possibility of lower inflation in the coming months. The US currency previously benefited from risk aversion after strikes in Yemen came in response to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces on shipping in the Red Sea, widening the regional conflict caused by Israel's war in the Gaza Strip. Traders see an 80% chance of an interest rate cut in March, up from around 70% chance seen before the PPI report.

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.0960 level, moving away from last week's lows. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.1045. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0940, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0910.

The euro was put under pressure by soft comments from the ECB. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Thursday that the worst of inflation is likely over and that interest rates will be cut if inflation falls to 2%. Dismissing those expectations, ECB chief economist Philip R. Lane said recent inflation data broadly supported the central bank's current views, meaning rate cuts were not on the table for debate in the near future. On the data side, France's consumer price inflation (CPI) rose 4.1% year-on-year in December, while Spain's annual inflation fell to 3.1% last month.

The trading range with boundaries of 1.0875 and 1.1000 remains. Now the price is above the middle of the range and may continue to rise.



Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Tesla's Bleak Month Continues, but Is It Really That Bad?


Share price volatility has been synonymous with Tesla for many years now, the company's unique, somewhat giant character echoing the polarising nature of its founder and CEO, Elon Musk.

An unusual company among its big-cap peers, Tesla is one of the most popular stocks on the global market, its volatility offering a diversion from steady, conservative bricks-and-mortar companies, which often dominate the top-tier blue-chip contingents of well-respected indices.

Since 2024 began just two weeks ago, Tesla shares have been declining in value at a rate that is relatively rapid for a firm whose stock is listed on a major exchange and whose peers are the 'Magnificent 7' tech firms which dominate North America's tech stock environment.

On December 28, 2023, FXOpen charts showed Tesla stock to be trading at $264 per share; however, as the new year began, Tesla started to decline and has continued on that trajectory thus far, arriving at $218.55 by the earliest hours of the European session this morning according to the FXOpen chart.

Some reports cite that Tesla stock has fallen by as much as 12% since the start of the year and allude to a 'sell-off' by many investors.

This is a very interesting period of volatility for Tesla, especially given the bullish trend towards tech stocks in general during the course of last year, in which they collectively rose from the doldrums that blighted the tech stock market during 2022 and doubled in value during the course of 2023.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Microsoft Becomes the Most Expensive Company in the World, Surpassing Apple


According to the results of trading shares of AAPL and MSFT yesterday, the market capitalization is:
→ Apple: USD 2.875 trillion.
→ Microsoft: USD 2.887 trillion.

This is facilitated by:
→ positive expectations of investors in shares of MSFT, connected with the leading positions of the company in the field of artificial intelligence;
→ negative sentiments regarding AAPL and demand for its products (as we wrote on January 4). Moreover, the New York Times writes that the Justice Department is preparing to initiate a large-scale antitrust case against Apple because of the dominant position of Apple's devices on the market and the measures that the company used to protect against threats to its business.

MarketWatch provides FactSet statistics on analysts' forecasts:
→ AAPL: +6% for the next 12 months, MSFT: +9%.
→ MSFT has such ratings: "buy": 90%, "neutral": 10%, "sell": 0%.
→ AAPL has such ratings: "buy": 57%, "neutral": 34%, "sell": 9%.

While the price of AAPL is below the maximum of 2023 by approximately 6%, the price of MSFT shares managed to renew the historical record in 2024: at the peak on January 11, MSFT gave more than 390 USD per share.

On January 31, data will be published on Microsoft’s Q4. It is not excluded that while waiting for positive figures, the price of the stock will increase, approaching the psychological level of 400 USD.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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US Dollar a Bastion of Strength After Christopher Waller's Calm Speech


Yesterday was a day that many corporate giants and private individuals across the United States had been waiting for, as it was the day during which Federal Reserve Bank governor Christopher Waller gave an official speech in the public domain regarding the possibilities of the United States economy reaching a point at which it can sustain an inflation rate of 2%.

Monetary policymakers within the United States had set themselves a target of driving down the rampant inflation the country experienced approximately two years ago to a sufficient level that it would reach 2% and remain at a steady 2% for the longer term.

Until yesterday's speech by Mr Waller, there was no tangible information from the Federal Reserve relating to how achievable this target would be. However, companies and investors alike may well have continued to tread a cautious route because of the continual interest rate rises the Federal Reserve had implemented over the course of last year despite inflation continuing to decrease.

This ultra-conservative monetary policy is not exclusive to the United States, of course. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both central banks which are responsible for the monetary policy of financial jurisdictions with equally important economies which are home to major currencies, had implemented comparatively strict measures to combat inflation by curbing spending with higher interest rates.

Another symptom of these rate rises alongside high inflation figures is that it increases the amount that private individuals and companies have to pay each month to cover their existing borrowing. This is a very important factor because if the proposed rate cuts take place this year on both sides of the Atlantic, more capital will likely be available from the same revenue figures, allowing companies to invest in growth or to report higher profits due to the lower operating costs compared to the past two years.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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The Dollar Continues to Strengthen since the Beginning of the Year


The dollar index is hovering at a one-month high against a basket of currencies as remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Christopher Waller dampened expectations of a March rate cut.

He said that while the U.S. is "within striking distance" of the Fed's 2% inflation target, the Fed should not rush to cut its benchmark interest rate until it is clear that lower inflation will be sustainable.

Market expectations for a rate cut in March fell to 62.2%, down from a forecast of 76.9% in the previous session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

The EUR/USD chart today shows that:
→ The rate dropped below the important psychological mark of 1.09 euros per dollar. Now (in case of testing) this level can serve as resistance.
→ The decline in EUR/USD from the peak at the end of December 2023 has already exceeded 2.3%. Will the trend continue?



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Dips Again and Crude Oil Price Turns Red


Gold price is correcting gains below the $2,040 support. Crude oil prices declined steadily below the $72.90 support and moved into a bearish zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• Gold price climbed higher toward the $2,060 zone before it corrected lower against the US Dollar.
• A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $2,040 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
• Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $72.90 support zone.
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $72.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price rallied heavily above the $2,040 resistance. The price even spiked above $2,060 before there was a downside correction.

There was a move below the $2,040 support level. The bears even pushed the price below the $2,030 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $2,020 zone. A low is formed near $2,019.32 and the price is now showing bearish signs.

Immediate resistance is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,062 swing high to the $2,019 low at $2,030.

The next major resistance is near a bearish trend line at $2,040. The trend line is close to the 50-hour simple moving average and coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2,062 swing high to the $2,019 low.

The main resistance could be $2,055, above which the price could test the $2,070 resistance. The next major resistance is $2,080. An upside break above the $2,080 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,120. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,135 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $2,020 level. The first major support is near the $2,012 level. If there is a downside break below the $2,012 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,980 support.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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The UK100 Price Plummeted After the Publication of Inflation Data


Yesterday, the stock market in the United Kingdom experienced a sharp decline following the release of new inflation data. The UK100 price, reflecting the leading British stock index FTSE, dropped approximately 1.5%. Moreover, the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart fell below the value of 18 for the first time since July 2023.

Analysts attribute this decline to the published inflation data, which not only failed to meet economists' expectations but also indicated a possible strengthening of inflationary pressure in the country. CPI values: actual = 4.0%, expected = 3.8%, previous value = 3.9%.

This raised concerns among investors regarding the Bank of England's future steps in managing interest rates and the potential slowdown in the country's economic growth.

Sectors most sensitive to changes in interest rates, such as real estate and finance, showed the greatest decline. Significant decreases were also observed in the stocks of companies in the retail and consumer goods sectors, reflecting growing concerns about consumer confidence and spending.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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OPEC Forecasts an Increase in Oil Demand in 2024


Yesterday, the monthly oil market review was published:

→ OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024, representing a 2.2% increase compared to 2023.

→ In 2025, OPEC predicts a demand increase of 1.85 million barrels per day, reaching 106.21 million barrels per day. It is anticipated that the growth in oil consumption in 2025 will be driven by China, the Middle East, and India.

This aligns with Occidental Petroleum's perspective, where they anticipate a global oil shortage starting in 2025, as the pace of global oil demand growth is roughly four times higher than the volumes of new reserves.

However, according to Citi analysts, the price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be $60 per barrel due to oversupply.

As of today, the price of Brent crude oil is fluctuating in the consolidation zone around $77 per barrel. Market participants are closely monitoring the potential for an increase in the Brent oil price due to geopolitical tensions. For instance, Maersk has reported that escalation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden will lead to disruptions in global logistics.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: The Dollar Is Weakening Against the Euro and Pound


Recent economic data and comments from Federal Reserve representatives have dampened expectations of a rapid interest rate cut. More optimistic than expected consumer sentiment data added to the list of reliable economic data published this week, including retail sales and unemployment benefit claims. The positive indicators eased expectations that the Fed would begin lowering the key rate as early as March and provided confidence that the US economy is not immediately threatened by a recession. The dollar index, which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of six currencies, fell by 0.08% to 103.26, although it rose by 0.8% over the week.

EUR/USD


The EUR/USD pair is showing a modest increase, developing a corrective impulse formed last week. The euro is testing the 1.0900 level for an upward breakout amid the absence of macroeconomic publications. According to EUR/USD technical analysis, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0909, and a breakthrough could trigger an increase to 1.0958. On the other hand, the nearest support is at 1.0844, and a break below could lead the pair to 1.0800.

Investors will focus on the monthly report from the German Bundesbank during the day, which may influence market expectations regarding the pace of possible ECB interest rate cuts this year. Additionally, on Wednesday, January business activity statistics in the services sector will be presented in the EU and the US. Predictions suggest that the Eurozone services sector index from S&P Global will strengthen from 48.8 to 49.0, while in the US, it will decrease from 51.4 to 51.0. On Thursday, a meeting of the European regulator will take place, and officials may provide comments that will affect the movement of the single currency quotes, although no changes in the direction of the agency's monetary policy are expected: the interest rate is expected to remain at 4.50%, and the deposit rate at 4.00%.

The price broke the upper boundary of the descending channel and may continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Microsoft Is at All-Time High Despite Boardroom Email Hack Claim


Microsoft Corporation is one of the longer established publicly listed high-technology companies within the North American 'big tech' industry.

Its foundation pre-dates the wave of internet giants that rose to prominence at the beginning of this millennium by such a margin that it was in existence and already a major corporation before many of the leaders of other tech firms around the world were actually born.

Microsoft's corporate standing differs from many of its peers in many other ways, too. Not only is it based in Seattle, its original homeland, as opposed to Silicon Valley in the next state westward, but it also manufactures computer hardware components as well as software, marking it out as a comprehensive provider of all aspects of the computer science industry. It could be fair to consider that Microsoft was viewed as a potential direct rival for Apple when Apple was founded just one year later, in 1976.

Since then, the two have been at the very top of their commercial game. However, Microsoft has recently been going from strength to strength, which is a remarkable feat considering its wranglings with anti-competition authorities in the United Kingdom and the United States, two of its vital markets.

This week, however, a further matter of interest has surfaced, adding to the ongoing market value speculation surrounding the viability of Microsoft's proposals to acquire electronic entertainment company Activision Blizzard for almost $69 billion, which has been an ongoing matter since the beginning of 2022.

As Microsoft's stock made an overall upward movement during the course of last year in the face of anti-competition authorities putting the brakes on the progress of the company's plans to acquire Activision Blizzard, the new year arrived with the deal still not complete and the American authorities sticking firmly to their premise that such an acquisition would create the largest corporate entity in the video game industry worldwide, potentially lessening the ability for other globally established companies such as Sony to compete in the market with its Playstation range of video games.

This matter rumbled on within the United States, but the British authorities made their decision to approve the merger later last year.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.