Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

Defence Sector Shares Advance


Recent developments, including the operation in Venezuela and unrest in Iran, are driving gains in defence sector equities. This week in particular:

→ The US President proposed increasing the military budget from USD 901 billion in 2026 to USD 1.5 trillion in 2027, providing a strong outlook for revenue growth across defence contractors and the military-industrial complex.

→ White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the US President and his team are discussing a range of options regarding Greenland, noting that the use of US armed forces always remains an option available to the Commander-in-Chief.

A clear example of the market's reaction is the sharp rally in Lockheed Martin (LMT) shares. While trading at the start of the year opened near USD 483.50, the price exceeded USD 540 at the peak of yesterday's session.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Gold Price Breaks Above $4,600 for the First Time


At the opening of Monday's session on 12 January, gold (XAU/USD) gapped higher and briefly moved above the psychological $4,600 level, setting a new all-time high.

Bullish drivers:

→ Geopolitical tensions. Following developments in Venezuela, market attention has shifted to unrest in Iran and renewed discussion around the United States' interest in Greenland, whether through purchase or other means.

→ Renewed friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Over the weekend, Jerome Powell stated that he had received threats of criminal prosecution, possibly linked to his stance on interest-rate cuts, which differs from President Trump's view.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Pull Back, Caution Creeps In


AUD/USD failed to stay in a positive zone and declined below 0.6700. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5700.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above 0.6740 against the US Dollar.
- There is an expanding triangle forming with resistance at 0.6705 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
- NZD/USD declined steadily from 0.5800 and traded below 0.5760.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5750 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis


On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear 0.6765. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below 0.6750 against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6720 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6680. A low was formed at 0.6663, and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6766 swing high to the 0.6663 low.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The US Dollar Index (DXY) Turns Lower


Capital flows into gold amid rising geopolitical and broader market risks, together with Jerome Powell's remarks about potential criminal prosecution, have not only driven XAU/USD to record highs (as discussed earlier today) but have also put pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Markets are also digesting the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data released on Friday. The figures pointed to a slowdown in the US economy, with actual job growth at 50K versus expectations of 66K. This reinforces the case for interest-rate cuts and acts as a bearish factor for the US dollar.

As a result, the dollar index is moving lower today.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Pin Bar Candle: How Traders Identify and Use It


A pin bar candle is one of those patterns traders talk about a lot, but often without much precision. Used properly, it can offer clues about rejected price levels and shifting control between buyers and sellers. This article breaks down what a pin bar candle actually represents, how traders identify pin bars, and how traders can develop a pin bar trading strategy.

Key Takeaways
- A pin bar candle is a reversal pattern defined by a small real body and a long upper/lower wick showing strong price rejection.
- Pin bars carry more weight when they form at clear support, resistance, or failed breakout levels.
- Higher timeframes tend to produce more useful pin bar signals than lower ones.
- The length and placement of the wick matter more than the candle colour.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Hits a Record – But Is Everything Really So Positive?


As the S&P 500 chart shows (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the index touched 6,990 yesterday, marking an all-time high for the first time. The psychological 7,000 level is now within close reach. Optimism may be driven by the start of the earnings season, which could confirm continued growth in corporate profits.

But is the outlook entirely positive?

From a fundamental perspective, several factors could raise concerns:

→ News surrounding a criminal case involving Jerome Powell. This may be perceived as pressure on the Fed Chair and a threat to the central bank's independence, potentially undermining the investment climate.

→ The upcoming release of CPI data (scheduled for today at 16:30 GMT+3). A scenario in which the figures point to rising inflation cannot be ruled out, which could trigger a sharp sell-off in equity markets.

→ Risks of the US becoming involved in new military conflicts.

From a technical standpoint, bearish signals are also emerging on the chart.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Silver Prices Stabilise Near Record Highs


As the XAG/USD chart shows, the price of silver per ounce is consolidating near its all-time high, which lies above $85.

Bullish sentiment dominates the market, as concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve, heightened geopolitical tensions, and other factors have fuelled demand for safe-haven metals. According to media reports:

→ Official authorities are exerting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, having opened a criminal case against its Chair. Powell, in turn, described these actions as a "pretext" for influencing the decisions of an independent financial institution.

→ Traders are also closely monitoring the escalation of protests in Iran, which could lead to US military involvement, alongside President Trump's statements about the annexation of Greenland. In the aftermath of the operation in Venezuela, such scenarios are increasingly being viewed as realistic.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

SMT Divergence in Trading: Concepts and Strategies


SMT divergence is a way of comparing related markets to spot subtle shifts in momentum that price alone can hide. Instead of focusing on indicators or single charts, it looks at how correlated instruments behave relative to each other at key highs and lows. When those relationships break down, it can reveal useful information about market pressure, positioning, and potential turning points. This article explains how SMT divergence works and how traders apply SMT divergence strategies.

Key Takeaways
- SMT divergence is a market analysis concept that occurs when two correlated instruments fail to make matching highs or lows, signalling a potential shift in momentum and underlying market pressure.
- Its core components are correlated instruments, a clear price mismatch at key levels, and institutional positioning.

SMT divergence is context-dependent. It is used near extremes and alongside market structure, rather than as a standalone signal.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Dollar Rises Amid Fed Uncertainty And Geopolitical Risks


The US currency maintains its upward momentum against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, political pressure on the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks. Investors continue to favour the dollar as a "safe-haven asset", despite mixed signals from the regulator and a muted market reaction to recent political developments in the United States. An additional source of support remains the stability of US Treasury yields, which, after recent volatility, have consolidated near local levels, reflecting a wait-and-see stance among market participants.

The overall backdrop for the FX market remains tense. The investigation involving the Fed Chair and the growing political pressure have intensified discussions about the regulator's independence, adding uncertainty to interest-rate expectations. At the same time, geopolitical risks and instability in certain regions continue to underpin demand for the dollar and limit interest in higher-risk currencies. In the near term, USD/JPY and USD/CAD dynamics will be shaped by the balance between US yields, signals from the Fed and political developments in both the US and Japan, with markets remaining highly sensitive to any new news catalysts.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Retreats as USD/JPY Rally Puts 160 in Sight


EUR/USD failed to clear 1.1700 and trimmed some gains. USD/JPY managed to reclaim 158.00 and might aim for more gains.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today
- The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.1700 pivot zone.
- There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1660 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/JPY climbed higher above 158.50 and 159.00.
- There is a bullish trend line forming with support near 158.50 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 1.1620. The Euro cleared a few key hurdles near 1.1650 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above 1.1680 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.1698, and the pair started a downside correction. There was a drop below 1.1650 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1618 swing low to the 1.1698 high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

WTI Oil Price Rises Above $60


As the XTI/USD chart shows, the price of a barrel climbed above $60 this week, reaching a one-month high.

The main bullish driver has been large-scale anti-government protests in Iran, which could lead to a change of power and/or military action. Trump has voiced support for the protesters and threatened 25% tariffs on all countries trading with Iran. Market participants fear that Iranian oil supplies (around 1.5–2 mb/d) could simply disappear, or that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index Reaches a Record High


As the charts show, the Euro Stoxx 50 price (Europe 50 on FXOpen) climbed above 6,055 points today, thereby setting a new all-time high.

Bullish sentiment is being supported by expectations of ECB interest rate cuts in 2026 and other fundamental factors, including:

→ News from China. Data released today have fuelled optimism about China's economy, with Europe being one of its key trading partners.

→ Rising defence-sector stocks amid geopolitical tensions. For example, Rheinmetall shares have gained around 20% since the start of 2026.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Remains Cautious: Euro and Pound Hover Near Support Ahead of Key Data Releases


European currencies remain under pressure and are trading close to key support levels amid cautious sentiment and anticipation of a dense slate of macroeconomic releases. After a sharp decline in previous sessions, the euro and the pound attempted a modest corrective rebound, but the recovery proved limited. The market has shifted into range-bound trading, reflecting a balance between short-covering and a reluctance to increase risk ahead of data yet to be released.

EUR/USD is consolidating after its recent downturn, responding to mixed expectations regarding the euro area economy. The latest figures have reinforced doubts about the sustainability of the recovery, while analysts continue to point to weak momentum in the region's largest economies and a subdued inflation impulse. In this environment, market participants are in no hurry to return to euro buying, preferring to wait for fresh macro signals that could clarify the outlook for ECB policy.

GBP/USD also remains under pressure despite an attempt at a corrective rise following a sharp sell-off. Expectations for upcoming UK data remain muted: analysts forecast moderate GDP and industrial production growth, which does not provide a solid basis for sterling appreciation. An additional source of uncertainty is the US dollar backdrop. During the session, several US indicators are due, including export and import price data, manufacturing activity indices, as well as speeches by Federal Reserve officials.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Natural Gas Prices Fall to a Near Five-Month Low


As the XNG/USD chart indicates, natural gas prices are trading very close today to the 2025 low formed in August.

The factors weighing on natural gas prices include:
→ Updated weather models, which are forecasting higher temperatures in the eastern US in late January (24–28), sharply reducing expected demand for gas used for heating.
→ Technical issues with power supply and pipelines at the Cheniere Corpus Christi and Freeport LNG terminals, which have reduced gas flows for export. This means gas that was destined for overseas markets is remaining on the domestic market, adding to inventories.
→ Supply–demand imbalance. US gas production is near record levels (110.7 billion cubic feet per day), while domestic consumption has fallen by 15.5% year-on-year.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Microsoft (MSFT) Shares Fall Below $460


As the Microsoft (MSFT) share chart shows:
→ yesterday's candle closed below $460 — the lowest level since early June last year;
→ the decline from the all-time high near $550 has exceeded 16%.

Why MSFT Shares Are Falling
- The downward move may reflect a shift in market sentiment from AI-driven euphoria to a more sober reassessment of the actual returns on investment.
- Investors are locking in profits amid concerns that the company's current infrastructure spending may not pay off in the near term.

Concerns have been reinforced by media reports of:
→ disappointing sales momentum for its AI products (Microsoft 365 Copilot);
→ intensifying competition, including from Google Gemini and Amazon AWS;
→ rising capital expenditure (forecast at more than $80bn per year).



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.