Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

ICT Concepts: What Is Inner Circle Trading?


Inner Circle Trading, or ICT for short, is a methodology that explains how to determine the actions of large institutional players, or "smart money", in trading and build a structured trading approach. The methodology includes many concepts that allow traders to spot and follow institutional market participants in different conditions. Explore the core ICT concepts and explain how traders typically apply them to refine directional bias, identify liquidity targets, and develop their trading strategies.

Key Takeaways
ICT explains market movement through institutional behaviour, focusing on liquidity, structure, and order flow rather than indicators.
The Inner Circle Trading method is used across forex, indices, and commodities on intraday and higher timeframes to interpret how major players influence price.
Core ICT concepts include Break of Structure (BOS), Change of Character (CHoCH), Market Structure Shift (MSS), liquidity pools, order blocks, fair value gaps, optimal trade entries, and kill zones.
ICT shows how price targets liquidity, reacts to imbalances, and shifts momentum, giving traders a clearer narrative of market intent.
The framework combines structure, timing, and context, making it a detailed but discretionary approach to analysing market movement.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/CAD Recovers From a 2.5-Month Low


The main driver of the decline was a sharp shift in sentiment and diverging expectations for policy actions in the United States and Canada.

→ Canada: Friday's employment data came in far stronger than forecast. As a result, traders sharply reduced the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate cut at the next meeting, judging the economy resilient enough to pause its easing cycle.

→ United States: Markets are pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at tomorrow's meeting (22:00 GMT+3).

This contrast pushed USD/CAD to a 2.5-month low. However, the chart shows that the bulls may still have some grounds for optimism.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Broadcom (AVGO) Shares Hit a Record Ahead of Earnings


Broadcom (AVGO) shares reached an all-time high ahead of the company's quarterly results, due this Thursday, supported by strong fundamental drivers:

→ Partnership with Microsoft: Media reports suggest Broadcom is in talks with Microsoft to develop custom AI chips.
→ Analyst optimism: UBS called Broadcom a "top investment" in the AI sector, citing explosive demand for hardware, and raised its price target to $472.
→ Shift in strategy: Market participants believe the company is refocusing on its own chips to win AI hardware market share from Nvidia.

We highlighted additional bullish drivers in our 14 October analysis.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Commodity Currencies Pull Back Ahead of Fed And Bank of Canada Decisions


The AUD and CAD are trading in corrective mode, reflecting market caution ahead of today's Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada meetings. Investors are locking in some profits after a volatile start to the week and prefer to wait for updated guidance from policymakers on the future path of monetary policy.

Over the coming trading sessions, focus will be on decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Fed, as well as the accompanying statements and press conferences. Central banks are setting the tone for the day, meaning reactions in AUD/USD and USD/CAD could be sizeable and highly volatile in the hours ahead.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

S&P 500 Index: Chart Analysis Ahead of Fed News


On 2 December, we noted that the final month of the year is traditionally favourable for the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), as:
→ since around the 1950s, December has been positive in more than 70% of cases;
→ the average monthly gain is approximately +1.0%.

Today, with traders worldwide focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Chair Powell's subsequent press conference, there is reason to highlight another statistic. According to media reports, in 20 out of 20 instances when equity markets were near record highs and the Fed cut rates, the S&P 500 rose over the following 12 months.

Given the current backdrop — proximity to all-time highs and expectations of rate cuts — it is possible that this could become the 21st such case.

An analysis of price action on the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) suggests that the stock market is reflecting nervous anticipation of the news, as the index is trading at roughly the same levels as at the start of December.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Oracle (ORCL) Share Price Rebounds Ahead of Earnings Release


Oracle is due to publish its quarterly results today after the close of the main trading session. Analysts are expecting solid year-on-year growth compared with the same period last year:

→ Revenue: forecast to rise by around 15% to $16.15–16.2 billion.
→ Earnings per share (EPS): expected at $1.63–1.65, up roughly 11%.

At the same time, the market's focus will be on the company's plans in two key areas:

→ Order backlog growth: investors are looking for confirmation that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong. Previously, orders exceeded $500 billion.
→ Debt and capital expenditure (capex): Oracle is spending aggressively on data centres (capex could rise to as much as $25 billion per year) while taking on additional debt. This has raised concerns that costs may be increasing faster than the actual profits generated from AI.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Stalls at Resistance as USD/JPY Extends Sharp Upside


EUR/USD climbed higher and tested the 1.1680 resistance. USD/JPY managed to reclaim 156.00 and might aim for more gains.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today
- The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.1680 pivot zone.
- There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at 1.1640 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/JPY climbed higher above 155.50 and 156.00.
- There is a bullish trend line forming with support near 156.30 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 1.1550. The Euro cleared a few key hurdles near 1.1600 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above 1.1600 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.1681, and the pair started a downside correction. There was a drop below 1.1650, and the pair tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1555 swing low to the 1.1681 high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The Smart Money Concept: Basics and Strategies


Smart Money Concepts (SMC) have become a widely studied approach for traders who want a clearer view of how major institutions influence price. Instead of relying only on standard tools, this method focuses on market structure, liquidity and the behaviour of large players such as banks and funds.

This article breaks down the basics of SMC trading, providing an overview of its components, how traders use the core ideas to analyse markets, and the advantages and drawbacks of the approach.

Key Takeaways
Smart Money Concepts focus on analysing institutional behaviour rather than relying only on standard technical tools.
Key ideas include trend structure, liquidity areas and zones linked to earlier institutional activity.
The framework aims to explain why price moves, not just how it moves on the chart.
SMC may support traders in organising their analysis and setting clearer invalidation rules.
It works across major markets, including forex, shares, indices and commodities.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

The Pound and the Euro Surge After the Fed Rate Cut


Yesterday's decision by the US central bank became the main driver of market movement, confirming a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy path. Markets were particularly sensitive to Jerome Powell's comments, as he repeatedly stressed that inflation remains too high while the labour market is showing clear signs of significant weakening.

The Fed Chair noted that the negative job growth — averaging around minus 20,000 per month — and potential distortions in the data caused by missing figures for October and November require a cautious approach to upcoming releases. At the same time, he emphasised that the economy does not appear overheated, demand is cooling, and inflation in the services sector continues to decline steadily.

These signals were interpreted by the market as confirmation that further support for the economy may be needed, increasing pressure on the dollar and triggering a sharp rise in demand for European currencies.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Nasdaq 100 Chart Analysis After the Fed Decision


The Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) showed sharp volatility yesterday following the interest rate announcement. The market action can be interpreted as follows:

→ First, the FOMC decision was released: as expected, the Federal Funds Rate was cut from 4.00% to 3.75% (a bullish catalyst), which pushed the index up towards point A.

→ However, half an hour later Jerome Powell's press conference began, and his tone was noticeably hawkish (a bearish catalyst). The Fed Chair signalled that the rate-cutting cycle has been paused because inflation remains elevated and additional labour-market data is needed. As a result, the index fell sharply from point A to the low at point B.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump criticised the Fed's decision, arguing that rates should be cut far more aggressively. This adds to uncertainty, especially given expectations that Powell will leave his post in May 2026.

Bearish pressure on the tech index intensified further after Oracle's earnings release — see yesterday's post for details. The results disappointed investors, fuelling renewed talk of an AI bubble, and ORCL shares plunged around 11% in after-hours trading.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Dollar Index Chart Analysis After the Fed Decision


Following yesterday's FOMC interest rate decision and Jerome Powell's press conference, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply to point A.

On one hand, the 0.25% rate cut makes the dollar less attractive for capital preservation and yield. On the other, the prospect of a pause before further cuts provides some support.

Thus, the current level represents the market's attempt to establish a fair valuation for the US currency.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Price Rebounds from a Seven-Week Low


On 1 December, we outlined a descending channel on the XBR/USD chart and noted that the bearish trend was driven by fading geopolitical risks. Indeed, hopes for an end to the war in Ukraine—along with the possibility of sanctions on Russia being eased—acted as a bearish catalyst.

In addition, the International Energy Agency reaffirmed its forecast for a record supply surplus and highlighted that global inventories have reached a four-year high.

Under the influence of these and other factors, such as signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, Brent crude fell to a seven-week low at point A. However, today the XBR/USD chart shows a bullish reversal, again triggered by geopolitics, according to media reports:

→ The United States has intercepted a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker, which Caracas described as an "act of piracy".
→ Ukraine has struck another vessel from the "shadow fleet" linked to Russia's oil trade.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Silver Price Hits Historic Record Around $64


On 27 November, we suggested that silver was preparing to challenge its all-time high. Since then (marked with the orange arrow), XAG/USD has risen by roughly 18%, breaking above the psychological $60-per-ounce threshold for the first time in history.

The rally has been driven by strong retail inflows into silver ETFs, alongside expectations of a structural supply deficit by 2026 due to robust industrial demand—particularly from solar energy, electric vehicles, and data-centre infrastructure.

The weakening of the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday also helped lift dollar-denominated silver to a new historic peak near $64.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

USD/JPY Slides Towards Key Support


A Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting is due this week, and expectations around the decision are supporting the yen today. Traders increasingly believe that the central bank may raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%.

Moreover, according to Trading Economics, analysts expect the interest rate to reach 1% by July 2026. Senior officials in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet are also unlikely to oppose tighter policy, as an excessively weak yen could drive up import costs and fuel inflation.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Test Support, Break or Bounce Next?


AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from 0.6630. NZD/USD is consolidating and could aim for a move above 0.5800 in the short term.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar started a minor pullback from 0.6685 against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6645 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
- NZD/USD is consolidating above 0.5765 and 0.5755.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5765 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6600. The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above 0.6630 against the US Dollar to enter a short-term positive zone.

The pair struggled above 0.6680 and recently corrected some gains. The recent low was formed at 0.6632. The pair is now consolidating and facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6677 swing high to the 0.6632 low at 0.6655 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.