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Author Topic: 最高涨幅超5%,EIA上调今明两年原油价格预期  (Read 133 times)

LeandraLin

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最高涨幅超5%,EIA上调今明两年原油价格预期

2023.04.12
           
界面新闻实习记者 | 蒋习


欧佩克+减产消息释放后,促使美国能源信息署(EIA)上调了美油、布油的价格预期。

4月11日,EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告,预计今年的布伦特原油均价为85.01美元/桶,较之前预计的82.95美元/桶上调2.5%;2024年为81.21美元/桶,较此前预计上调4.7%。

EIA预计,今年WTI原油价格为79.24美元/桶,较此前预期上调2.8%;2024年WTI原油价格为75.21美元/桶,上调5.1%。

报告指出,最新的较高价格预测,主要因今年全球原油产量将较此前预期的有所下降,全球石油消费前景则相对不变。

4月2日晚,欧佩克+组织多国宣布实施自愿石油减产计划。减产时间从5月开始,持续到2023年底,合计减产164.9万桶/日。

与此同时,俄罗斯将自愿减产50万桶/日的石油产量,将石油减产承诺延长至2023年底。

因此,EIA下调了欧佩克+的原油产量预期。

报告预计,今年欧佩克+原油产量为3370万桶/日,较之前下调1.1%;2024年原油产量为3460万桶/日,较此前下调0.3%。

EIA预测,俄罗斯的石油和其他液体产品产量将从2022年的1090万桶/日,下降到2023年的1060万桶/日、2024年的1040万桶/日。

但EIA署长Joe DeCarolis同时指出,预计今年全球石油产量和石油产品需求将相对平衡,因为北美和南美等地的产量,可以抵消欧佩克+的减产影响。

非欧佩克+国家的原油产量强劲增长。EIA预测,非欧佩克+国家今年的原油总产量将增长190万桶/日,2024年增长100万桶/日。

EIA称,非欧佩克+产油国未来两年的预估增量中,约有一半来自美国。美国今年的原油产量料将增加5.5%,达到1254万桶/日,2024年将再增加1.7%至1275万桶/日。

基于此,EIA预计今年全球原油产量仍将增加150万桶/日,2024年将增加200万桶/日。

从需求端看,EIA将今年全球原油需求增速预期下调4万桶/日,至144万桶/日;将2024年全球原油需求增速预期上调6万桶/日,至185万桶/日。

中信期货表示,今年初,在供应支撑和需求压力共同作用下,原油价格持续震荡。全年看,原油价格下方受到产油国减产支撑,上方受到美联储加息负反馈效应压制,暂时维持70-100美元/桶的宽幅震荡预期。

光大期货认为,当前供应端收缩预期仍在,需求短期相对韧性,油价震荡上行为主。

美东时间4月11日,WTI 5月原油期货结算价收涨1.79美元,涨幅2.24%,报81.53美元/桶;布伦特6月原油期货结算价收涨1.43美元,涨幅1.7%,报85.61美元/桶。

Source: 最高涨幅超5%,EIA上调今明两年原油价格预期



 

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