Daily Market Analysis from NordFX

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 02 – 06, 2024

As November draws to a close and December begins, financial markets remain dynamic, shaped by a mix of geopolitical events, monetary policy updates, and investor sentiment shifts. The Eurozone faces persistent economic challenges, weighing on the euro, while gold continues to shine as a safe haven amidst global uncertainty. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market, led by bitcoin, is riding a wave of optimism as regulatory developments and institutional interest bolster its upward momentum.
Here’s a detailed analysis of the key instruments,EUR/USD, BTC/USD, and XAU/USD,as we head into the first trading week of December 2024.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair concluded the previous week at 1.0544, remaining within a long-term descending channel. Indicators, including moving averages, confirm a prevailing bearish trend as prices recently broke below key signal levels. However, the potential for a rebound remains.
Early in the week, the pair is expected to test the support level around 1.0345. If this level holds, the pair may see a recovery, with a potential rise toward the resistance area above 1.0735. Such movement could gain support from technical signals, including a test of the RSI support line or a bounce from the channel's lower boundary. On the downside, a decisive break below the 1.0125 level would invalidate the recovery scenario, opening the door for further declines toward 0.9825.

XAU/USD



Gold closed the week at $2,658, continuing its upward movement within an ascending channel. Indicators such as moving averages confirm the strength of the bullish trend, with prices breaching key resistance levels. Despite the positive outlook, a short-term decline may emerge before further growth.
The price is likely to test the $2,525 support level at the beginning of the week. If this level holds, gold could rebound and climb towards $3,005. Signals from the RSI and a bounce from the ascending channel's lower boundary would further support this movement. Conversely, a drop below $2,445 would undermine the bullish scenario, potentially driving prices toward $2,375.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin ended last week at $97,047, maintaining its upward trajectory within a bullish channel. The cryptocurrency's performance remains underpinned by moving averages and a breakout above key signal areas. While the broader trend is bullish, a short-term correction may precede further gains.
A pullback to the support area near $90,405 could occur early in the week. Following this, bitcoin is expected to resume its ascent, targeting levels above $120,505. Indicators such as a rebound from the bullish channel's lower boundary and RSI trendline support could validate this growth. However, a fall below the $80,505 level would signal a breakdown in the bullish structure and suggest a decline toward $72,665.

The first week of December is set to be a pivotal period for the markets. While EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure, there are opportunities for rebounds if support levels hold. Bitcoin's bullish trend appears intact, though traders should anticipate and prepare for short-term corrections. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, shows strong potential for growth, provided its critical support areas remain unbroken. In light of these dynamics, traders should carefully monitor the markets and adapt their strategies accordingly.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 09 – 13, 2024

The past week exhibited varying trends across major markets. The euro managed to hold its ground against the dollar, albeit within a persistent long-term descending channel. Gold and bitcoin extended their upward momentum, supported by strong technical indicators. Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair appears poised to test critical support and resistance levels, gold may encounter a temporary correction before resuming its upward trajectory, and bitcoin shows signs of strength within its established bullish channel. Below is a detailed forecast for the week ahead.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed the previous week near 1.0551, reflecting moderate growth while remaining within its long-term descending channel. Although moving averages point to a bearish trend, a potential reversal could emerge from the "Head and Shoulders" pattern taking shape. The pair shows signs of downward pressure from buyers, with prices previously breaking through signal lines. A short-term correction to the 1.0505 support level is expected, followed by a rebound that could push the pair toward the 1.0925 mark. Supporting this view is a test of the RSI's support line, alongside a rebound from the "Neck" line of the reversal model. However, a breakout below 1.0245 would negate the bullish scenario, signalling a continuation of the decline, potentially targeting the 0.9805 level. On the other hand, sustained movement above 1.0695 would confirm further growth, indicating a breakout of the descending channel's upper boundary.

XAU/USD

Gold ended last week near the 2637 level, continuing its progress within a bullish channel. Prices show strength, having breached resistance levels under the influence of buyers. However, the short term may bring a decline toward the 2545 support zone, where a rebound is anticipated. Such a move would pave the way for gold to target the 2965 level in the coming sessions. A supportive signal for further growth is a rebound from the RSI trend line and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Should prices break below the 2435 mark, the bullish outlook would be invalidated, opening the door for further declines to 2365. Conversely, a breakout above 2745 would confirm continued bullish momentum for the metal.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin closed the previous week at 99,301, maintaining its trajectory within a well-defined bullish channel. The asset remains under strong buyer pressure, reflected in its upward movement above key resistance areas. A short-term correction is anticipated, with the price likely to test the 92,505 support level. From there, a rebound could push bitcoin toward a new high at 123,605. Additional bullish confirmation comes from rebounds off the RSI support line and the lower boundary of the bullish channel. A breakdown below 80,505, however, would invalidate this outlook, potentially leading to a deeper decline toward 72,005. On the flip side, a breakout above 106,025 would affirm the bullish case, further strengthening the asset's growth prospects.



The week of December 9–13, 2024, is set to be pivotal for forex and cryptocurrency markets. The EUR/USD pair will likely fluctuate between correction and growth, while gold and bitcoin, despite possible near-term corrections, remain in bullish formations. Traders should monitor critical levels closely to navigate potential opportunities and risks effectively.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 30, 2024 – January 03, 2025

As the year transitions into its final week, financial markets have displayed a mixture of corrections and sustained trends across key assets. The past week saw steady movements influenced by macroeconomic developments and year-end portfolio adjustments. Looking ahead, the forthcoming week could bring heightened volatility, with traders positioning for the New Year amidst thinner holiday liquidity.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair ended the past week near 1.0419, continuing its trajectory within a descending channel. Technical indicators highlight a bearish sentiment, with moving averages confirming sustained downward pressure. Sellers maintain control, driving the pair to test support near 1.0375. From this level, a potential rebound is anticipated, with targets suggesting a rise towards the 1.0965 region.
A supportive signal for potential recovery comes from the relative strength indicator (RSI), where a bounce near the support line could reinforce upward momentum. Another key factor to watch will be price reactions near 1.0375. However, a decisive break below 1.0175 would negate this bullish outlook, setting the stage for a deeper decline towards 0.9825. Conversely, a breakout above 1.0585 would validate a reversal, potentially lifting EUR/USD above the descending channel.

XAU/USD

Gold (XAU/USD) closed the previous week with gains near the 2617 level, underpinned by an ascending channel that reflects its bullish trend. Buyers remain in control, supported by moving averages and signals of a potential continuation in price growth. In the coming week, a pullback to test support around 2575 is expected before a likely rebound propels Gold towards the 3035 level.
Additional bullish confirmations may arise from RSI trends and a rebound from the lower boundary of the "Triangle" pattern visible in technical analysis. A break below 2495 would invalidate this growth scenario, indicating a more pronounced drop toward 2405. Conversely, a close above 2745 would signify the breakout of the upper boundary of the "Triangle," reaffirming bullish prospects with extended targets beyond 3035.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) finished the week at 94058, moving within a bullish channel while consolidating its recent gains. The cryptocurrency remains in an upward trend, with moving averages signalling robust buyer interest. Resistance near 96265 is a critical level to monitor in the upcoming week. A potential failure to break this level could trigger a decline, with targets below 71405.
Signals supporting bullish continuation include a rebound from the lower boundary of the channel and resistance on the RSI. However, a break below 82405 would confirm a bearish shift, targeting a further decline. On the other hand, if Bitcoin breaks through 110505, it could rally further to reach the 116505 area, underscoring continued investor optimism.

The final week of the year is poised to deliver pivotal movements across Forex and cryptocurrency markets. EUR/USD faces a critical juncture within its descending channel, with room for both rebounds and further declines. Gold continues to shine within its bullish trajectory, eyeing higher levels despite potential short-term pullbacks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains volatile but structurally bullish, presenting opportunities for gains if key resistance levels are breached. Market participants should prepare for dynamic trading conditions as the year draws to a close.


NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

[Stan NordFX]

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 06 – 10, 2025
The past week saw significant movements across major Forex and cryptocurrency pairs, reflecting broader market trends influenced by ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical factors. While the Euro and gold demonstrated correction and consolidation within familiar patterns, bitcoin exhibited strength within its bullish trajectory. The coming week promises to bring further volatility as markets react to evolving economic data and sentiment shifts.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair concluded the week near 1.0282, moving within a well-defined descending channel. Bearish momentum remains dominant, with moving averages confirming a downtrend. Selling pressure is evident as prices have broken below key signal lines, hinting at a potential test of support near 1.0195 in the coming week. Following this decline, an upward rebound is anticipated, potentially propelling the pair toward the 1.0545 level.
Additional confirmation of this rebound could come from a test of the relative strength indicator (RSI) support line, accompanied by price support in the lower channel range. However, a break below 1.0045 would invalidate the bullish outlook, suggesting further declines toward 0.9805. Traders should monitor the pair’s behaviour around these critical levels, as a breakout above 1.0545 would signal a resumption of upward momentum and a breach of the descending channel.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Gold closed the previous week with a modest rise, ending near 2645, while continuing to trade within a corrective triangle formation. The overall trend remains bullish, as evidenced by moving averages, which reflect ongoing buyer support. In the short term, a decline toward the 2625 support level may precede an upward rebound, targeting 2975 as a potential high.
The RSI trend line and the lower boundary of the triangle pattern provide additional signals supporting the bullish forecast. A break below 2485 would invalidate this scenario, indicating a continuation of the downtrend toward 2415. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above 2755 would signal the completion of the triangle pattern, paving the way for a sustained move higher toward new highs.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Bitcoin continues to consolidate its position within a bullish channel, closing the week at 97,438. The cryptocurrency's upward momentum is supported by strong buying activity, as prices remain above key moving averages. However, a short-term correction could lead to a test of support near 84,305. From this level, a rebound is likely to propel bitcoin toward the 130,635 mark.
The lower boundary of the bullish channel and the RSI support line provide additional backing for this optimistic outlook. A fall below 80,205, however, would invalidate the bullish scenario and suggest a deeper correction toward 65,605. A breakout above 105,005 would confirm continued bullish momentum and likely attract further buyer interest.
The upcoming trading week presents a mix of potential corrections and trend continuations across Forex and cryptocurrency markets. The EUR/USD pair is poised for a rebound following a test of lower support levels, while gold is expected to sustain its bullish trend within its triangle pattern. Bitcoin remains on a bullish trajectory, with its correction phases offering opportunities for renewed growth. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels for actionable insights and confirmatory signals in a highly dynamic market environment.
NordFX Analytical Group

Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.