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Author Topic: 美元成本在外汇掉期市场暴跌,在岸价格仍在上涨  (Read 52 times)

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周一,外汇掉期市场上的欧元和英镑对美元的兑换成本降至十年来的最低水平,这表明各国央行的运作取得了成功,尽管其他一些指标暗示货币市场的压力并未完全消除。

掉期行动是在一系列政策努力下进行的,以缓解美元融资市场的压力,包括美国联邦储备银行为许多外国中央银行提供的美元掉期额度,以及为其他无法使用此类额度的人提供临时的``回购''便利。

这些措施扭转了美元海外借贷成本激增的局面。为期三个月的欧元兑美元外汇掉期触及负65个基点的12年低点,已两周回落至2011年欧洲危机时期的逾150个基点的高点。

从本质上讲,这意味着欧洲实体现在能够以折扣价购买美元,而无需支付大量溢价。这本身就是一种反常现象,因为自2008年危机以来,美元的掉期市场溢价一直是市场的特征。

Natwest市场策略师在一份报告中表示:“为解决市场问题而制定的政策本身已经产生了新的扭曲。” “从交叉货币基础互换来看,已经从严重的美元短缺转变为供过于求。”

根据Refinitiv的数据,英镑兑英镑的掉期汇率也触及负42个基点的12年低点,美元兑日元掉期跌至负30个基点的八年来最低。

更广泛地说,外汇掉期中美元借贷压力的减少并未削弱美元的实力。美元指数(= USD)上周上涨了2.5%,而其兑欧元汇率则上涨了3%(EUR = EBS)

此外,有证据表明,其他地方尤其是在美国银行间同业拆借市场中压力水平上升。

例如,在美国境外借入美元的成本(三个月的美元伦敦银行同业拆借利率)居高不下,为1.38%。尽管在3月中旬这一比率超过5%,但仍远高于0.25%的联邦基金目标利率。

外汇经纪商Monex Europe的西蒙•哈维(Simon Harvey)表示,两种利率之间的价差仍然很大,这表明“市场仍存在信贷风险或流动性短缺”。

伦敦银行同业拆借利率的顽强也蔓延到了银行间美国市场。衡量大型银行为长期融资支付的费用与隔夜资金之间的差额的一个指标位于2008年高点131个基点附近。

Brown Brothers Harriman的策略师Ilan Solot表示,当银行资产负债表上的压力越来越大,以减少风险贷款时,这种利差反映了各种借款人对银行贷款的高需求。

保证银行贷款的压力还体现在三个月期商业票据的利率之间的利差(美国公司利用短期票据)与银行贷款利率高于105个基点,而2020年初为24个基点。 。

纽约Bannockburn证券的马克·钱德勒(Marc Chandler)表示,银行间同业拆借资金成本上升“表明,陆上-离岸贷款仍然不起作用。”

“正是这种差异可能有助于解释为什么跨货币基础互换现在看起来如此扭曲。”

BBH的Solot表示,离岸美元借款成本相对于美国银行间市场下降的另一个原因是,这些掉期交易是以外币抵押的,而美国市场上的大部分借款都是无抵押的。

他说:“最糟糕的是,在离岸市场上,您被错误的货币作为抵押品,但是在美国,这些借贷大多数没有抵押品。”



 

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