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Author Topic: 中国将成为投资者在新冠危机中的避风港  (Read 75 times)

EnLong12

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中国将成为投资者在新冠危机中的避风港

桑晓霓:无论是从政策、宏观经济因素还是某些行业的实力来看,中国内地市场的前景几乎是目前全球最具吸引力的。



最先爆发新型冠状病毒疫情的中国也是投资者寻求庇护的好地方?这种观点听起来似乎有些奇怪。然而,有许多理由相信,无论是从政策、宏观经济因素还是某些行业的实力来看,中国内地市场的前景几乎是全球最有吸引力的。是的,中国正遭受重创,并将继续遭受打击。摩根大通(JPMorgan)的经济学家上周基于1月和2月工业生产、零售销售和固定资产投资的疲弱数据,预计今年第一季度的国内生产总值(GDP)折合成年率环比将下降近50%。但人们之所以保持相对乐观,最重要的原因之一是太平洋两岸政策制定者的不同反应。一家总部位于香港的信贷和宏观对冲基金的创始人前几天哀叹道,“发达市场的央行很快就会手头上什么都不剩了”,他指的是接近零的利率和已经在实施的各种量化宽松计划。这位创始人说:“美联储一直依赖这种泡沫。现在,有效的量化宽松和货币政策接近用完了。”相比之下,中国似乎有很多选择。新加坡星展银行(DBS)首席经济学家泰穆尔•拜格(Taimur Baig)表示,中国的货币政策制定者“看上去很聪明”,因为他们能够随时采取行动。拜格指出,中国央行本可以向所有市场注入流动性,以缓解各种压力。但这不符合让中国企业减少依靠债务资金实现增长的经济方针。相反,中国央行采取了更有针对性的方法,鼓励银行向提供大量就业岗位的中小企业放贷。尽管中国央行下调了银行存款准备金率,但存款利率仍保持不变。这使得家庭可以继续从储蓄中赚到一些利息——这与日本、欧洲和美国的消费者不一样。此外,正因为中国第一季度的表现将极为惨淡,所以第二季度的表现相比之下就会好得多。摩根大通的经济学家写道:“如果我们预测的没错,中国最先陷入病毒引发的经济放缓,也将最先走出来。”他们指出,摩根大通的每日经济活动跟踪指标出现复苏迹象。这种乐观情绪在资产价格上有所体现——中国资产价格比其他许多市场更具韧性。自今年年初以来,中国基准股指沪深300指数(CSI 300)下跌约12%,不到美国标普500指数(S&P 500)跌幅的一半。人民币兑美元汇率保持相对稳定,同时在债券市场,外国投资者的流入资金创出历史最高纪录。龙洲经讯(Gavekal Research)经济学家路易斯•加夫(Louis Gave)表示:“中国似乎不太可能成为系统中的偿付能力黑洞。”与此同时,中国内地城市的街道上不再空无一人,逐渐恢复了正常。中信资本(Citic Capital)董事长张懿宸是麦当劳(McDonald)在中国内地和香港连锁餐厅的重要投资者,他表示,消费者“感觉还好。我们90%(的餐厅)都在营业,我们看到销量恢复了80%”。还有许多人也感到乐观。专注于交易所交易基金(ETF)的亚洲公司睿亚资产(Premia Partners)的创始人蔡瑞怡(Rebecca Chua)表示,世界许多地方还没有完全感受到病毒爆发的经济影响。但在中国,她表示,“我们看到了惊喜”。惊喜之一是蔡瑞怡所说的经济“加速数字化”,这在一定程度上是由强制封锁造成的。随着许多学校停课,阿里巴巴(Alibaba)旗下的钉钉(Ding Ding)——一个免费交流平台,在中国内地以外地区被称为“DingTalk”——访问量激增,因为大部分教育转到了线上。许多公司让全体员工在腾讯(Tencent)的企业微信上办公,共享文档,并利用其类似于Zoom的功能在虚拟世界中进行交流。上周三,腾讯公布第四季度业绩时表示,去年12月,在微信和WeChat(微信海外版)平台有11.6亿用户账户在这期间登录过至少一次,同比增长6%。蔡瑞怡补充道:“不仅仅是流量增加。行为上的变化是巨大的。”支撑这一切的是一场深刻的结构性转变。中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)近20年以来,中国的需求增加了世界其他地区的财富,因为中国从新兴市场进口原材料,从发达国家进口奢侈品和服务。2007年至2009年金融危机之后,中国在刺激方案下产生的需求也帮助推动了世界的复苏。然而现在,随着中国从资本输出国转变为输入国,这种情况可能会发生改变。“目前没有任何全球协调,”上述对冲基金经理表示,“中国这次没有动机去拯救世界其他地区。”译者/裴伴

Source: .:http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001086871?full=y



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