中美关系面临新变局，拜登政府为加强沟通渠道做最后努力

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中美关系面临新变局，拜登政府为加强沟通渠道做最后努力

ALAN RAPPEPORT2024年12月12日美国财政部高级官员本周将前往中国，试图说服他们的中国同行让沟通渠道在候任总统特朗普下个月上任后继续畅通。 Saul Loeb/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe Biden administration is making a final push to reinforce the communication channels it established between the United States and China before the relationship between the world’s largest economies potentially faces fresh upheaval when President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office next month.候任总统特朗普于下月上任后，美中这两个世界上最大的经济体之间的关系可能面临新变局，在此之前，拜登政府正在做最后的努力，加强它在两国之间建立的沟通渠道。A team of senior Treasury Department officials will travel to Nanjing, China, this week for a final meeting of the U.S.-China financial working group. A separate group of Treasury officials will convene with their Chinese counterparts on the sidelines of a Group of 20 gathering in South Africa this week for a meeting of the bilateral economic working group. The working groups were formed in 2023 as a way to prevent tension between the U.S. and China from devolving into economic warfare.美国财政部的一个高级官员团队将于本周前往中国南京，参加美中金融工作组的最后一次会议。财政部另一组官员将在本周南非召开的20国集团会议间隙，与中国同级官员举行双边经济工作组会议。这些工作组是2023年建立的，目的是防止美中紧张关系演变为经济战。The officials are expected to discuss a familiar range of issues that have been on the table since the new structure for economic dialogue was created last year. The United States is expected to raise its continued concerns about China’s excess production of green energy technology, which is flooding global markets. Treasury officials are also expected to raise issues with China’s recent restrictions on exports of critical minerals and the support that Chinese firms have been providing to Russia in its war against Ukraine.预计官员们将讨论他们已经熟悉的一系列问题，自从新的经济对话结构于去年建立以来，这些问题就一直摆在桌面上。预计美国将对中国生产过剩的绿色能源技术持续表示关切，这些技术正在大量涌入全球市场。预计美国财政部官员还将对中国最近限制关键矿产出口的做法、以及中国公司在俄乌战争中持续向俄罗斯提供物资等问题表示关切。“The United States and China are the two largest economies on the globe, and the American people expect that we should be able to communicate directly with Chinese officials on both areas where we agree and especially on areas where we don’t,” said Jay Shambaugh, the Treasury Department’s under secretary for international affairs, who will be participating in the meetings.“美国和中国是全球最大的两个经济体，美国人民期待我们直接与中国官员沟通，无论是在我们意见一致的领域，还是在我们意见不一的领域，尤其是在意见不一的领域，”即将参加这些会议的美国财政部负责国际事务的副部长杰伊·尚博说。Despite the warmer tone between the two countries, most of the Biden administration’s warnings about China flooding global markets with cheap solar panels and electric vehicles have gone unheeded. There has also been no indication that Chinese firms have stopped helping Russia access the technology that it needs to restock its military. And the U.S. and China have continued to ratchet up protectionist measures.尽管两国关系的基调有所缓和，但拜登政府对中国向全球市场倾销廉价太阳能电池板和电动汽车的警告并没有引起中国的重视。也没有迹象表明中国公司已停止帮助俄罗斯获取补充其军需的技术。美国和中国已继续加强各自的保护主义做法。The Biden administration opted this year to maintain the tariffs that the Trump administration had imposed on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports and announced new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors and advanced batteries.拜登政府今年决定维持特朗普政府对价值数十亿美元的中国进口产品征收的关税，并宣布对中国电动汽车、太阳能电池板、半导体、先进电池征收新关税。This month, the United States unveiled broader restrictions on advanced technology that could be sent to China, to prevent it from developing its own advanced chips for military equipment and artificial intelligence.本月，美国宣布对可能出口到中国的先进技术实施更广泛的限制，以防止中国用这些技术研发可用于军事装备和人工智能的先进芯片。China responded last week with new restrictions of its own, banning the export of several rare minerals to the United States that are used to make valuable products, like weaponry and semiconductors.中国上周以自己的新限制措施作为回应，禁止对美国出口几种用于制造武器和半导体等高价值产品的稀有矿物。The escalations raise questions about what the new lines of communication have actually accomplished, but proponents of more dialogue argue that without them the economic relationship could be even worse.贸易限制的升级令人们质疑新的沟通渠道究竟产生了什么实际效果，但支持更多对话的人认为，如果没有这些渠道，两国的经济关系可能会更糟。“U.S. and Chinese financial officials are under no delusions that relations are fraught,” said Mark Sobel, a longtime former Treasury official. “But whether they like each other or not, they absolutely should be speaking with one another, if for no other reason than to avoid potentially harmful misunderstandings.”“美国和中国的金融官员们不存在幻想，他们都知道关系紧张，”曾长期在财政部工作的前官员马克·索贝尔说。“但不管他们是否喜欢对方，他们都绝对应该相互交谈，即使没有其他原因，只是为了避免可能造成伤害的误解。”Mr. Sobel, the U.S. chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, added: “With a new administration coming in, there is all the more reason to continue these important dialogues.”官方货币和金融机构论坛的美方主席索贝尔补充道：“随着新政府即将上台，我们更有理由继续进行这些重要对话。”Economic tension between the U.S. and China is expected to rise under Mr. Trump, who imposed tariffs on more than $300 billion of Chinese imports during his first term and formally labeled China a currency manipulator. This year, Mr. Trump said he would enact an extra 10 percent tariff on all products from China and he has suggested removing permanent normal trading relations with China, which would result in an immediate increase in tariffs on Chinese imports.预计中美之间的经济紧张关系在特朗普领导下将加剧。特朗普在第一次执政期间对总值超过3000亿美元的中国进口产品加征了关税，并将中国正式列为汇率操纵国。特朗普已在今年表示，他会对所有来自中国的产品征收10%的额外关税，他还建议取消与中国的永久性正常贸易关系，这将导致美国立即提高对中国进口产品的关税。The Biden administration hopes that the communication structure that it put in place will help stabilize the economic relationship with China if a new period of volatility emerges. The two economies account for over 40 percent of global gross domestic product and collaborate on policy matters including financial stability, debt relief for poor countries, sanctions and the governance of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.拜登政府希望，即使出现新的动荡时期，它所建立起来的沟通框架也有助于稳定与中国的经济关系。这两个经济体的国内国内生产总值加起来占全球的40%以上，两国也在金融稳定、减免穷国债务、制裁，以及世界银行和国际货币基金组织的治理等政策问题上开展合作。However, Mr. Trump has demonstrated that he has a different view of economic diplomacy.但特朗普已表明他对经济外交持不同看法。During his first term, Mr. Trump did away with the “strategic economic dialogue” format that former Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. had put in place during the George W. Bush administration. Instead, he imposed tariffs as a negotiating tool and dispatched his top economic advisers, Steven Mnuchin, who was his Treasury secretary, and Robert Lighthizer, his trade representative, to negotiate a trade agreement. The deal was signed in 2020 but the terms were not honored.特朗普在第一次执政期间取消了两国之间的“战略经济对话”，该框架是亨利·保尔森在小布什政府担任财政部长时建立的。特朗普的做法是加征关税，将其作为谈判工具。他还派遣自己的高级经济顾问、财政部长史蒂文·姆努钦和贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽与中国谈成了一项贸易协定。这项协定于2020年签署，其条款没有得到执行。Michael Pillsbury, who served as Mr. Trump’s top outside adviser on China during his first term, said that meetings among midlevel American and Chinese officials tend to be fruitless because they have little authority to make major policy decisions. He said that he expected that Mr. Trump would have little patience in such a format and that he instead would focus on direct talks with President Xi Jinping.白邦瑞(Michael Pillsbury)曾在特朗普第一次执政期间担任中国事务高级外部顾问，他表示，美国和中国中层官员之间的会晤往往毫无成效，因为这些官员几乎无权做出重大政策决定。他说，他预计特朗普对这种对话框架没有多少耐心，他宁愿把注意力放在与中国国家主席习近平的直接对话上。“It’s part of the American ‘feel good’ approach that just to have the meeting is a good thing,” Mr. Pillsbury said. “I think President Trump will return to the single-channel approach, that all main issues are between him and Xi Jinping.”“认为只要有会谈就是好事，这只是美国人的一种‘感觉良好’，”白邦瑞说。“我认为特朗普将回到单一渠道的做法，让所有的主要问题都在他与习近平之间解决。”Alan Rappeport是时报驻华盛顿的经济政策记者。 他负责报道财政部并撰写有关税收、贸易和财政事务的文章。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 中美关系面临新变局，拜登政府为加强沟通渠道做最后努力