习近平进一步强化对金融体系控制

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习近平进一步强化对金融体系控制

KEITH BRADSHER, JOY DONG2023年12月6日中国最高领导人习近平正在加大对国家金融体系的控制力度。 Greg Baker/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIn his decade as China’s top leader, Xi Jinping has asserted greater control for himself and the Communist Party over the country’s economy. Now, Mr. Xi has moved to extend that power more forcefully than ever over China’s financial system.在担任中国最高领导人的十年间，习近平一直主张由他和中共掌握更多的经济大权。现在，习近平正在以前所未有的力度将这种权力扩张到中国的金融体系。The Communist Party issued a detailed ideological statement on Friday in Qiushi, the party’s main official theoretical journal, that made clear that it expected banks, pension funds, insurers and other financial organizations in China to follow Marxist principles and pay obedience to Mr. Xi.周五，中共在党刊《求是》杂志上发表了一篇详尽的意识形态声明，明确要求中国的银行、养老金金融、保险公司和其他金融机构遵循马克思主义原则，并服从习近平的领导。The Qiushi paper, which was being closely studied by bankers and economists in China, could cut against efforts by Beijing to show that the economy is open to investment even as it places a heavier hand on business.《求是》的文章被中国的银行家和经济学家高度重视，它可能与北京的努力背道而驰，即虽然对商业施加了更严格的管控，但中国经济是欢迎投资的。Barry Naughton, an economist at the University of California at San Diego who has long studied China’s transition to a market economy, said that the document signaled that the finance sector would be subject to ever-tighter oversight and forced to serve government policies more actively.长期研究中国市场经济转型的加州大学圣地亚哥分校经济学者巴里·诺顿表示，此文表明，金融部门将受到更严格的监管，并被迫更积极地为政府政策服务。“The financial sector will not be expected to push for market-oriented reforms or even necessarily maximize profit,” he said. “As a program for the financial sector, it is ambitious, disappointing and somewhat ominous.”“不能再期望金融部门推动市场化改革，甚至连利润最大化也不一定能实现了，”他说。“作为一项金融规划，它雄心勃勃、令人失望，同时也带了点不祥意味。”在中国大陆拥有大量业务的西方银行属于北京的监管范畴；一些机构已在削减规模。Western banks like HSBC, BNP Paribas and JPMorgan Chase have sizable operations in mainland China that fall under the purview of Beijing regulators. But some financial institutions have been paring back. Citibank announced on Oct. 9 that it was selling its consumer wealth management business in mainland China to HSBC. Vanguard has been exiting its limited operations on the mainland.汇丰银行、法国巴黎银行和摩根大通等西方银行在中国大陆拥有规模可观的业务，而这些业务都属于北京监管机构的管辖范畴。但部分金融机构已在缩减规模。花旗银行10月9日宣布，将把其在大陆的个人银行财富管理业务出售给汇丰银行。先锋集团也一直在从大陆撤出其有限的业务。China has long demanded that financial firms follow Beijing’s policies and the principles of the party. Yet for nearly four decades after the death of Mao in 1976, the party seemed to be gradually loosening its controls over society, the economy and banking. Financial institutions were encouraged to innovate and pursue profits.长久以来，中国都要求金融机构遵循中央政策和党的原则。但在1976年毛泽东去世后的近40年时间里，中共似乎逐渐放松了对社会、经济和银行业的控制。金融机构的创新和逐利是受到鼓励的。Mr. Xi has been broadly reversing this liberalization. He and other leaders had called for tighter regulatory control during a conference on financial policy in late October. The Qiushi essay underscored that this shift is now cemented in place as part of the party’s ideology.习近平一直在全面扭转这种自由化趋势。在10月底的金融政策会议上，他和其他领导人要求加强金融监管。《求是》的文章则明确了这种转变如今已成为中共思想理论的一部分。That has made market-oriented economists increasingly nervous.这让支持市场导向的经济学家越来越紧张。“Politics will for sure further dictate China’s finance, effectively moving China even closer to how it was before the reforms started in 1978,” said Chen Zhiwu, a finance professor at the University of Hong Kong.“政治必然将进一步支配中国的金融，使中国更加接近于1978年改革开放开始前的状态，”香港大学金融学教授陈志武表示。Some of the policy targets set forth in the essay would not be unusual as regulatory goals in the West. For example, it calls for banks to emphasize financial services for the “real economy,” which the party has long interpreted to include ample financing for the country’s industrial base.《求是》文章中提出的一些政策目标和西方的监管意图相比并无太多异常。比如要求银行把金融服务“实体经济”作为根本宗旨，中共长期以来对此的解释都包括为工业基础提供充足资金。数十年来，金融机构的创新受到了鼓励。习近平一直在扭转这种自由化趋势，这一转变现已在党的意识形态中得到巩固。But it also calls for a strong role in finance for Mr. Xi personally and for Marxist ideology generally. That follows a pattern that emerged for other sectors during the national congress of China’s Communist Party a year ago, but has been less apparent in finance — until now.但文章也提出让习近平个人和马克思主义的意识形态在金融领域发挥重要作用。这符合一年前中共在二十大上对其他行业提出的监管模式，只不过之前金融领域未受到那么明显的影响，现在就不一样了。The essay details a speech given in private by Mr. Xi at the end of October at China’s Central Financial Work Conference, which is convened once every five years to guide financial regulation.该文章详细介绍了习近平在10月底的中央金融工作会议上发表的闭门讲话，这个指导金融监管的会议每五年召开一次。But like the conference, the party statement in Qiushi didn’t offer specific solutions for the country’s many financial troubles. These include soaring debt, widening budget deficits at local governments, the collapse of a large trust bank, and the insolvency of real estate developers that were among the country’s biggest borrowers.但不管是今年的会议还是中共在《求是》上的文章，都没有为困扰中国的许多金融问题提出具体解决方案。这些问题包括债务剧增、地方政府预算赤字扩大、一家大型信托银行倒闭，以及房地产开发商的资不抵债，这些开发商是中国最大的债务方之一。Moody’s, the credit rating agency, announced on Tuesday that it was lowering its credit outlook for the Chinese government to negative. It had previously assigned a stable outlook for the country’s credit rating, which remains at A1, near the top of the ratings scale.信用评级机构穆迪周二宣布，将中国政府的展望评级下调至负面。此前穆迪对中国的信用评级展望为稳定，保持在接近最高评级的“A1”。The official silence on what to do about China’s troubled finances and flagging economic recovery coincides with a mysterious delay in a long-expected gathering of a powerful party committee.官方对如何解决中国财政困境和经济复苏疲软缄默不言，而就在此时，一场外界期待已久的党中央会议也因不明原因推迟。In recent years, the financial work conference has been followed in the same year by the Third Plenum of the party’s Central Committee — where top officials map out the country’s economic policy for the next five years. But the plenum has yet to be scheduled and may be delayed until next year. The looming breach of tradition has led to speculation about disarray in economic policymaking.近年来，中央委员会第三次全体会议（简称三中全会）往往都与中央金融工作会议在同年先后召开，最高层官员将在这场会议上为中国制定未来五年的经济政策。但今年的三中全会并未提上日程，可能会推迟到明年。该会议的召开传统将被打破，引发了外界关于中国经济政策失去方向的猜测。何立峰副总理在《求是》文章的署名委员会中担任书记，他如今负责主持中国经济政策的制定。The Communist Party unit that issued the statement in Qiushi — the Central Financial Working Committee — is headed by Vice Premier He Lifeng. Mr. He has been a close associate of Mr. Xi since 1985, when the two men began working together in southeastern China’s Fujian Province. Mr. He now has a lead role in setting economic and financial policy in China.中央金融工作委员会是这篇《求是》文章的署名单位，副总理何立峰担任该委员会书记一职。自1985年与习近平在福建共事以来，何立峰一直是习的左膀右臂。他如今负责主持中国经济和金融政策的制定。Qiushi is the main journal providing pronouncements on China’s current ideology, which is known as Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. The statement on Friday said that Mr. Xi’s speech to the financial conference, “is a valuable ideological crystallization formed by our party’s unremitting exploration of the path of financial development with Chinese characteristics.”《求是》是阐述中国当前意识形态——即“习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想”——的主要刊物。上周五发表的这篇文章宣称，习近平在中央金融工作会议上的讲话是“我们党不懈探索中国特色金融发展之路形成的宝贵思想结晶”。Zhu Tian, an economics professor at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai, said that the document should be interpreted primarily as a political statement, not a policy prescription. “Politics affects all important areas, and economic or financial issues are themselves political issues,” he said.上海中欧国际工商学院的经济学教授朱天表示，这篇文章应被视为一份政治声明，而非政策办法。“政治影响了一切重大领域，经济或金融问题本身就是政治问题，”他说。Indeed, Communist Party control over finance comes up repeatedly in the Qiushi statement. “We must unswervingly adhere to the centralized and unified leadership of the party Central Committee over financial work, uphold and strengthen the party’s overall leadership over financial work,” it said.诚然，《求是》文章中反复申明中共对金融的控制。“必须毫不动摇坚持党中央对金融工作的集中统一领导，坚持和加强党对金融工作的全面领导，”该文章写道。Top Chinese regulators have already begun to issue statements endorsing the ideological stance. These included a lengthy discourse on Monday by Yi Huiman, the Communist Party secretary and chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which oversees the country’s stock and futures markets.中国最高监管机构纷纷发表支持这一意识形态立场的声明。包括中国证券监督管理委员会主席易会满在周一的长篇讲话，该委员会负责监管中国的股票和期货市场。支持这一意识形态立场的监管方包括中国股票和期货市场监管机构的负责人。Victor Shih, another specialist in Chinese economic policy at the University of California at San Diego, said that calls for finance to serve society are often heard in the West as well.加州大学圣地亚哥分校另一位中国经济政策专家史宗瀚(Victor Shih)表示，西方同样不乏要求金融为社会服务的呼声。But with Chinese authorities taking more responsibility for finance, banks may continue to lend and companies may continue to borrow on the assumption that the state will bail them out even if they make mistakes. Mr. Shih cautioned that this could, “continue to give rise to careless financial behavior for actors who see comfort in the center’s absolute guarantee for stability.”但随着中国政府包揽更多金融工作，银行和企业可能会基于这样一个假设继续放贷和借贷行为，即哪怕犯了错误，也有国家来兜底。史宗瀚警告，这可能导致“把中央对稳定的绝对保证视为安抚的行为者继续做出有失谨慎的金融行为”。Olivia Wang自香港对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 点击查看更多关于他的信息。Joy Dong常驻香港，报道中国大陆和香港的新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。  https://feedx.run

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