美国官员称俄罗斯高级将领在瓦格纳兵变前已知情

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美国官员称俄罗斯高级将领在瓦格纳兵变前已知情

JULIAN E. BARNES, HELENE COOPER, ERIC SCHMITT2023年6月28日俄罗斯总统普京和苏罗维金，摄于2017年。美国官员正在试图查明，苏罗维金是否协助了普里戈任反叛俄军领导层的计划。 Sputnik/ReutersA senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.据听取了美国情报界相关简报的美国官员说，一名俄罗斯高级将领事先知道叶夫根尼·普里戈任针对俄罗斯军方领导层的哗变计划，由此引出的问题是，这位雇佣兵领导人是否得到了某些高层人物的支持。The officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power.这些美国官员说，他们正在努力查明，前俄军乌克兰战场最高指挥官谢尔盖·苏罗维金将军是否参与了上周末普里戈任兵变的谋划，该事件对掌权23年的普京总统构成了严峻威胁。General Surovikin is a respected military leader who helped shore up defenses across the battle lines after Ukraine’s counteroffensive last year, analysts say. He was replaced as the top commander in January but retained influence in running war operations and remains popular among the troops.分析人士称，苏罗维金是一位有威望的将领，在去年乌克兰的反攻后，他参与了战线防御体系的构筑。今年1月，他的最高指挥官职位被人取代，但是对这场战争的行动仍有影响力，在军中也很受欢迎。American officials also said there are signs that other Russian generals may also have supported Mr. Prigozhin’s attempt to change the leadership of the Defense Ministry by force. Current and former U.S. officials said Mr. Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising unless he believed that others in positions of power would come to his aid.美国官员还表示，有迹象表明，还有一些俄罗斯将军可能支持了普里戈任武力改变国防部领导层人事的计划。前任和现任美国官员称，如果不是确信别的权势人物会出手相助，普里戈任是不会发起兵变的。If General Surovikin was involved in last weekend’s events, it would be the latest sign of the infighting that has characterized Russia’s military leadership since the start of Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine and could signal a wider fracture between supporters of Mr. Prigozhin and Mr. Putin’s two senior military advisers: Sergei K. Shoigu, the minister of defense, and Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, the chief of general staff.如果苏罗维金参与了上周末的事变，那将是普京的乌克兰战争开始以来，俄军领导层内斗的最新迹象，也许表明普里戈津的支持者和普京的两位高级军事顾问——国防部长谢尔盖·K·绍伊古和总参谋长瓦列里·V·格拉西莫夫——之间存在更广泛的分歧。But the infighting could also define the Russian military’s future on the battlefield in Ukraine, as Western-backed troops push a new counteroffensive that is meant to try to win back territory seized by Moscow.而这场内斗还有可能决定俄罗斯军队在乌克兰战场的未来，西方支持的部队正在那里展开新一轮的反攻，意在夺回被莫斯科占领的领土。Mr. Putin must now decide, officials say, whether he believes that General Surovikin helped Mr. Prigozhin and how he should respond.官员们表示，普京现在必须做出决断，要不要相信苏罗维金协助了普里戈任，以及应该作何反应。On Tuesday, the Russian domestic intelligence agency said that it was dropping “armed mutiny” criminal charges against Mr. Prigozhin and members of his force. But if Mr. Putin finds evidence General Surovikin more directly helped Mr. Prigozhin, he will have little choice but to remove him from his command, officials and analysts say.周二，俄罗斯国内情报机构表示，针对普里戈任及其部属的“武装叛变”刑事指控已经撤销。但是官员和分析人士称，如果发现苏罗维金对普里戈任有更直接的协助，普京将别无选择，只能将其解职。Some former officials say Mr. Putin could decide to keep General Surovikin, if he concludes he had some knowledge of what Mr. Prigozhin had planned but did not aid him. For now, analysts said, Mr. Putin seems intent on pinning the mutiny solely on Mr. Prigozhin.几位前任官员表示，假如普京认定苏罗维金只是知道普里戈任的计划，但没有给予协助，那么他也许会不予追究。分析人士称，目前来看，普京似乎倾向于把兵变归咎于普里戈任一人。私人雇佣兵集团瓦格纳创始人普里戈任，4月于莫斯科。“Putin is reluctant to change people,” said Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. “But if the secret service puts files on Putin’s desk and if some files implicate Surovikin, it may change.”“普京是不愿意换人的，”卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心高级研究员亚历山大·鲍诺夫表示。“但如果特务部门放了些文件在普京桌上，其中表明苏罗维金的参与，那事情就不一样了。”Senior American officials suggest that an alliance between General Surovikin and Mr. Prigozhin could explain why Mr. Prigozhin is still alive, despite seizing a major Russian military hub and ordering an armed march on Moscow.美国高级官员表示，苏罗维金与普里戈任的盟友关系可以解释后者为什么能免于一死，尽管他占领了一处俄军重要机关，并下令向莫斯科武装进军。American officials and others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. They emphasized that much of what the United States and its allies know is preliminary. U.S. officials have avoided discussing the rebellion publicly, out of fear of feeding Mr. Putin’s narrative that the unrest was orchestrated by the West.由于涉及敏感情报，美国官员及其他一些就本文接受采访的人士要求匿名。他们强调美国及其盟友在很大程度上只是对事况有一个初步掌握。由于担心助长普京的说辞——称是西方在背后策划这些动荡，美国官员拒绝公开谈论此次叛变。Still, American officials have an interest in pushing out information that undermines the standing of General Surovikin, whom they view as more competent and more ruthless than other members of the command. His removal would undoubtedly benefit Ukraine.尽管如此，美国官员仍然乐于去推动可能动摇苏罗维金地位的信息，他们认为他比其他指挥官更有能力，也更无情。他的下台无疑对乌克兰有利。The Russian Embassy did not respond to a request for comment.俄罗斯大使馆没有回应置评请求。General Surovikin spoke out against the rebellion as it became public on Friday, in a video that urged Russian troops in Ukraine to maintain their positions and not join the uprising.苏罗维金在周五公布的一段视频中公开反对叛乱，他敦促驻乌克兰的俄罗斯军队坚守阵地，不要加入兵变。“I urge you to stop,” General Surovikin said in a message posted on Telegram. “The enemy is just waiting for the internal political situation to worsen in our country.”“我敦促你们停手，”苏罗维金在Telegram上发布的消息中说。“敌人只是在等着我们国家的内部政治局势恶化。”But one former official called that message akin to “a hostage video.” General Surovikin’s body language suggested he was uncomfortable denouncing a former ally, one who shared his view of the Russian military leadership, the former official said.但一名前官员称，这条信息看起来像“人质视频”。这名前官员说，苏罗维金的肢体语言表明，谴责这位前盟友令他感到不安，普里戈任对俄罗斯军方领导层的看法与他是一致的。There were other signs of divided loyalties in the top ranks. Another Russian general — Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev — made his own video appeal, calling any actions against the Russian state a “stab in the back of the country and president.” But hours later, he surfaced in another video, chatting with Mr. Prigozhin in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, where Wagner fighters seized military facilities.还有其他迹象表明，高层也存在分歧。另一位俄罗斯将军弗拉基米尔·阿列克谢耶夫中将也在视频中呼吁，任何针对俄罗斯政府的行动都是“在国家和总统背后捅刀子”。但几小时后，他在另一段视频中露面，在俄罗斯顿河畔罗斯托夫与普里戈任聊天。瓦格纳武装分子占领了该市的军事设施。“There were just too many weird things that happened that, in my mind, suggest there was collusion that we have not figured out yet,” Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, said in a phone interview.前美国驻俄罗斯大使迈克尔·麦克福尔在接受电话采访时表示，“发生了太多奇怪的事情，在我看来，这表明存在着我们还没有弄清楚的勾结。”“Think of how easy it was to take Rostov,” Mr. McFaul said. “There are armed guards everywhere in Russia, and suddenly, there’s no one around to do anything?”“想想攻占罗斯托夫是多么容易，”麦克福尔说。“俄罗斯到处都是武装警卫，突然之间，周围就没有人做事了？”普京和苏罗维金，摄于去年12月，当时后者获颁三级圣乔治勋章。然而一个月后，苏罗维金就被解除了乌克兰战争总指挥的职务。Independent experts, and U.S. and allied officials said that Mr. Prigozhin seemed to believe that large parts of Russia’s army would rally to his side as his convoy of 8,000 Wagner forces moved on Moscow.独立专家、美国及盟国官员表示，普里戈任似乎认为，在他的8000名瓦格纳士兵向莫斯科进发时，大部分俄罗斯军队会站在他的一边。Former officials said General Surovikin did not support pushing Mr. Putin from power but appears to have agreed with Mr. Prigozhin that Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov needed to be relieved of duty.前官员称，苏罗维金不支持把普京赶下台，但似乎同意普里戈任的看法，认为绍伊古和格拉西莫夫需要被解职。“Surovikin is a decorated general with a complex history,” said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. “He is said to be respected by the soldiers and viewed as competent.”“苏罗维金是一位功勋将军，有着复杂的历史，”兰德公司高级政策研究员达拉·马西科特说。“据说他受到士兵们的尊敬，被认为很有能力。”General Surovikin and Mr. Prigozhin have both brushed up against Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov over tactics used in Ukraine. While the Russian military’s overall performance in the war has been widely derided as underwhelming, analysts have credited General Surovikin and Mr. Prigozhin for Russia’s few successes.苏罗维金和普里戈任都曾因在乌克兰使用的战术，与绍伊古和格拉西莫夫发生过争执。尽管俄罗斯军队在这场战争中的总体表现被普遍嘲笑为不尽如人意，但分析人士将俄罗斯为数不多的胜利归功于苏罗维金和普里戈任。In General Surovikin’s case, that limited success was the professionally managed withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson, where they were nearly encircled last fall and cut off from supplies. Based on communications intercepts, U.S. officials concluded that a frustrated General Surovikin represented a hard-line faction of generals intent on using the toughest tactics against Ukrainians.苏罗维金取得的有限成功是对俄罗斯军队从赫尔松撤军一事进行了专业的运作，去年秋天，他们几乎被包围在那里，并被切断了补给。根据截获的通讯信息，美国官员得出结论，沮丧的苏罗维金代表了一群强硬派的将军，他们打算对乌克兰人使用最强悍的战术。Similarly, Mr. Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries achieved some success in taking the eastern city of Bakhmut after a nine-month slog in which, by Mr. Prigozhin’s own count, some 20,000 Wagner troops were killed. U.S. officials and military analysts say tens of thousands of troops died in the fight for Bakhmut, among them Wagner soldiers who were former convicts with little training before they were sent to war. Mr. Prigozhin frequently complained that senior Russian defense and military officials were not supplying his troops with enough weapons.同样，普里戈任的瓦格纳雇佣军在经过九个月的艰苦战斗后，在夺取东部城市巴赫穆特方面取得了一些成功，据普里戈任自己的统计，大约有两万名瓦格纳士兵丧生。美国官员和军事分析人士说，数以万计的士兵在巴赫穆特战役中丧生，其中包括瓦格纳的士兵，他们以前是囚犯，在被派往战场之前几乎没有受过什么训练。普里戈任经常抱怨，俄罗斯高级国防和军事官员没有向他的部队提供足够的武器。Russia’s entire military campaign in Ukraine has been characterized by a musical chairs of changing generals. Last fall, when General Surovikin was put in charge of the Russian Army’s effort in Ukraine, he was the second man to get the job, replacing a general who had lasted barely a month. General Surovikin did not last much longer, but performed far better during his weeks at the helm.俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动全过程有一个特点，就是更换将军的抢椅子游戏。去年秋天，当苏罗维金受命负责俄罗斯军队在乌克兰的行动时，他已经是第二位获得该职位的人，上一位将军任职不到一年。苏罗维金的任期并不长，但在他执掌大权期间，俄军表现有很大改善。Nevertheless, by January, General Surovikin was demoted, and Mr. Putin handed direct command of the war to General Gerasimov, who promised to put Russian forces back on the offensive. General Surovikin’s demotion, military and Russia analysts say, was widely viewed as a blow to Mr. Prigozhin.然而，到今年1月，苏罗维金被降职，普京将战争的直接指挥权交给了格拉西莫夫，后者承诺让俄罗斯军队重新进入进攻状态。军事和俄罗斯分析人士称，普遍认为苏罗维金的降职对普里戈任是一个打击。Julian E. Barnes是一名国家安全记者，常驻华盛顿，报道情报机构新闻。2018年加入时报之前，他为《华尔街日报》报道安全相关议题。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。Helene Cooper是时报五角大楼记者。她曾担任编辑、外交记者和白宫记者，是因报道埃博拉疫情而获得2015年普利策国际报道奖的团队成员之一。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@helenecooper。Eric Sc​​hmitt是一名资深作者，曾在世界各地报道恐怖主义和国家安全。他也曾担任五角大楼通讯员。自1983年以来，他一直是《纽约时报》的一员，曾四次作为团队成员获得普利策奖。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@EricSchmittNYT。翻译：杜然、晋其角点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 美国官员称俄罗斯高级将领在瓦格纳兵变前已知情