马克龙访华，计划敦促习近平推动结束俄乌战争

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马克龙访华，计划敦促习近平推动结束俄乌战争

ROGER COHEN2023年4月6日法国总统马克龙一直对拜登政府的强硬对华政策持批评态度，他认为任何脱钩或“脱联”都不符合欧洲利益。 Gonzalo Fuentes/ReutersPresident Emmanuel Macron of France arrived in Beijing on Wednesday determined to carve out a distinct role for Europe that avoids America’s confrontation with an assertive China, and convinced that there is a place for China in ending the war in Ukraine.法国总统马克龙周三抵达北京，决意为欧洲开辟一条与中国打交道的不同途径，避开美国与坚定自信的中国的对抗，并且确信中国在结束乌克兰战争方面可以发挥作用。Battered at home by protests over his decision to raise the French retirement age, rebuffed in his repeated attempts to sway President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia from pursuing a long war, Mr. Macron has turned to China as “the sole country in the world capable of changing Moscow’s calculus” on Ukraine, in the words of one diplomatic official.由于做出了提高法国退休年龄的决定，马克龙在国内遭到接连不断的抗议。他曾多次试图说服俄罗斯总统普京不要在乌克兰穷追不舍地打下去，但遭到了拒绝。现在，马克龙转向中国，用一名外交官员的话说，它是“世界上能改变莫斯科（在乌克兰问题上）算计的唯一国家”。“Only China can have a game-changer effect,” the official, who requested anonymity in line with French diplomatic practice, said. “We know there will be no Chinese condemnation of Russia, but the president has worked enormously to see how, with China, we can be useful to the benefit of Ukrainians.”“只有中国能起到改变战局的作用，”上述官员说，按照法国的外交惯例，这名官员要求不具名。“我们知道中国不会谴责俄罗斯，但在搞清楚我们能与中国一起，为乌克兰人的利益发挥什么有益作用方面，（马克龙）总统已做出巨大努力。”What exactly Mr. Macron has in mind is not clear. China has never condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has avoided use of the word “war” to describe the Russian assault. It has embraced a “no-limits,” anti-Western partnership with Moscow, cemented last month by President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia and the joint declaration of a “new era” freed of what the two countries see as American dominance.尚不清楚马克龙心中有什么具体想法。中国从未谴责俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，也一直避免用“战争”一词来描述它的侵犯行为。它欣然接受与莫斯科的反西方伙伴关系，两国之间的“无止境”友谊在国家主席习近平上个月访问俄罗斯时得到了加强，双方还发表联合声明，宣布两国关系是不受美国主宰的“新时代国际关系”。But the French leader likes to thread needles invisible to others. He appears to detect enough Chinese disquiet over Mr. Putin’s war for diplomatic ingenuity.但这位法国领导人喜欢另辟蹊径走出困境。他似乎察觉到中国对普京的战争已足够地忧虑，让他能在外交上有所独创。马克龙与乌克兰总统泽连斯基今年2月在巴黎。用一名外交官员的话说，马克龙正在转向将中国，将其视为“世界上能改变莫斯科（在乌克兰问题上）算计的唯一国家”。China, as Mr. Putin acknowledged in September, has expressed “questions and concerns” about the war. Unlike Mr. Putin, it is not interested in nuclear saber-rattling; and it has not closed the door on the suggestion last month from Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, that China could “become a partner” in the quest for a settlement.正如普京去年9月承认的那样，中国已对俄乌战争表示了“疑问和担忧”。与普京不同，中国对核威胁没有兴趣；而且它也没有拒绝来自乌克兰总统泽连斯基的建议，后者上个月曾提出，中国也许能在寻求解决方案上“成为合作伙伴”。The United States has been dismissive of any Chinese role in Ukrainian peacemaking. It waved away a vague 12-point Chinese plan put forward in February. But Mr. Macron spoke to President Biden on the eve of his departure to Beijing and the two leaders evoked “their shared wish to involve China in accelerating an end to the war in Ukraine,” a French presidential statement said.美国一直对中国在和平解决乌克兰战争上的作用不屑一提，对它在2月份提出的12条含糊立场置之不理。但马克龙在启程前往北京的前夕与拜登总统通了电话，据法国总统府的声明，两位领导人指出“他们希望中国参与到加速结束乌克兰战争的共同愿望”。Still, clear differences remain on approaches to China. Taking his own independent position holds a strong political appeal to Mr. Macron, for whom the development of Europe as a global power is a recurrent theme.尽管如此，他们与中国接触的方式仍存在明显分歧。对马克龙来说，采取自己的独立立场具有强烈的政治吸引力，把欧洲发展为一个影响全球事务的力量是一个反复出现的主题。He has been critical of the Biden administration’s tough line on China and believes any decoupling, or “de-linking,” is not good for Europe, given the vast economic interests at stake. The German auto industry depends overwhelmingly on the Chinese market; a possible deal with China for the sales of dozens of Europe’s Airbus aircraft is under discussion.马克龙对拜登政府的对华强硬政策一直持批评态度，认为任何脱钩或“脱离联系”对欧洲都没有好处，因为这关系到巨大的经济利益。德国的汽车业在很大程度上依赖中国市场；目前中国正在就购买数十架空客飞机进行谈判。For China, too, at a time when relations with the United States are at their lowest point in decades, cultivating partners in Europe, especially France and Germany, holds considerable economic and strategic interest as it pursues its post-Covid reopening.对中国来说也是如此。中美关系正处在几十年来的最低点，在欧洲培养合作伙伴——尤其是与法国和德国——在中国疫情过后重新开放之际有相当大的经济和战略利益。In an interview with The New York Times ahead of Mr. Macron’s visit, China’s ambassador to the European Union, Fu Cong, urged Europe to be more independent of the United States, and suggested Chinese closeness to Russia had been overplayed. Of the “no-limits” friendship between the two countries, he said: “‘No limit’ is nothing but rhetoric.”中国驻欧盟大使傅聪在马克龙访华前接受《纽约时报》采访时，敦促欧洲采取更加独立于美国的做法，他还暗示，西方夸大了中俄亲密关系，提到两国之间“无止境”的友谊时，他说：“‘无止境’只是个说法而已。”Mr. Xi will hold more than six hours of meetings with Mr. Macron during his three-day visit — exceptional treatment that amounts to a statement of serious diplomatic intent — including a joint visit to the southern city of Guangzhou, where the Chinese leader has strong family connections.在为期三天的访问中，习近平与马克龙进行会谈的时间将超过六小时，这种特殊待遇相当于一个严肃的外交意图声明。马克龙的行程还包括访问南方城市广州，中国领导人习近平在广州有很强的家庭关系。Last month Mr. Xi accused the United States of leading Western countries in a campaign of “all-out containment, encirclement and suppression” against China. Clearly, he sees France as an important interlocutor as the Biden administration imposes strict export controls aimed at cutting off Chinese access to critical technologies.上个月，习近平指责以美国为首的西方国家对中国实施“全方位的遏制、围堵、打压”。随着拜登政府实行严格的出口管制，以切断中国获得关键技术的途径，他显然把法国视为一个重要的对话者。对中国来说，中美关系正处在几十年来的最低点，在欧洲培养合作伙伴，尤其是与法国和德国，对中国疫情过后重新开放具有相当大的经济和战略利益。Through European economic outreach of a kind the United States is not prepared to offer, Mr. Macron may have some leverage in persuading China to take a more constructive diplomatic role in Ukraine. The recent Chinese achievement in brokering an unlikely deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic relations was a clear indication of the country’s new reach and ambition.通过提供一些美国不愿意提供的欧洲经济接触，马克龙在说服中国对乌克兰问题发挥更具建设性的外交作用方面，也许拥有某种砝码。最近，中国在沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间促成了一项看起来难以达成的和解，双方恢复了外交关系，这项成就清楚地表明了中国的新影响力和雄心。“Our objective is not to break ties with China,” the French official said. “On the contrary, our objective is to reinforce those ties on better foundations.”“我们的目标不是断绝与中国的联系，”前述法国官员说。 “我们的目标反而是在更好的基础上加强这些联系。”For the Chinese Communist Party, strong growth is the indispensable guarantor of its authority. But growth fell to 3 percent last year, the lowest rate in many years. Europe can contribute more to an economic rebound than Russia, for all the talk of “no limits.”对中共来说，强劲的经济增长是其统治不可或缺的保证。但中国去年的经济增长率已降到了3%，是多年来最低增速。不管中国如何大谈特谈与俄罗斯“无止境”的友谊，与俄罗斯相比，欧洲能为中国经济复苏做出更大贡献。Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, who is accompanying Mr. Macron in a display of European heft, said in a speech last week that “it is neither viable — nor in Europe’s interest — to decouple from China. Our relations are not black or white — and our response cannot be either. This is why we need to focus on de-risk — not decouple.” 与马克龙一起前往中国展示欧洲重要性的欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩上周在一个讲话中说，“与中国脱钩既不可行，也不符合欧洲利益。我们的关系不是非黑即白，我们的响应也不能是非黑即白。这就是为什么我们需要将重点放在去风险上——而不是脱钩。”Still, framing China’s rise in more direct and ominous terms than Mr. Macron, she said that “China has now turned the page on the era of ‘reform and opening’ and is moving into a new era of security and control.”尽管如此，她用了比马克龙更直接、更令人不安的措辞描述中国的崛起，她说，“中国现在已经翻过了‘改革开放’时代的那页，正在进入一个以国家安全和控制为主的新时代。”Given that China “wants to become the world’s most powerful nation” by midcentury, and is intent on “systemic change of the international order with China at its center,” Europe must diversify away from its dependence on China for strategic materials, Ms. von der Leyen, who represents the 27-member European Union, said.考虑到中国“想在本世纪中叶成为世界上最强大的国家”，正在致力于“系统性地改变国际秩序，使其变成以中国为中心”，欧洲必须采取更多元化的做法，摆脱在战略物资上依赖中国，冯德莱恩说道。欧盟委员会主席是欧盟27个成员国的代表。“We rely on one single supplier — China — for 98 percent of our rare earth supply, 93 percent of our magnesium and 97 percent of our lithium,” she said, adding: “Batteries that are powering our electric vehicles are forecast to drive up demand for lithium by 17 times by 2050.”她说，“我们依靠单一供应商——中国——来提供我们98%的稀土、93%的镁和97%的锂。”她还表示：“据预测，为我们的电动汽车提供动力的电池，将让2050年的锂需求量增加到目前的17倍。”冯德莱恩上周在一个讲话中表示，“与中国脱钩既不可行，也不符合欧洲利益。”The French official said Ms. von der Leyen’s tougher public views on China’s hardening under Mr. Xi did not reflect a difference of appreciation, but rather Mr. Macron’s determination to look forward, in order to “find ways to build, once we know that.”前述法国官员说，对于中国在习近平的领导下表现出的强硬立场，虽然冯德莱恩在公开场合比马克龙的态度更为严厉，但这个差别反映的并非看法的不同，而是马克龙向前看的决心，是为了“在我们知道存在问题的时候，找到建设性的办法”。With both Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi, the tendency of the French leader has been to acknowledge on the one hand the threat they pose to Western values and democracy, and on the other to insist that only dialogue can bring favorable change.在普京和习近平眼里，法国领导人马克龙倾向于一方面承认中俄两国对西方价值观和民主制构成威胁，另一方面坚持认为只有对话才能带来有利的变化。That dialogue with Mr. Putin, intense in the early months of the war, has broken down in recent months. It bore no apparent fruit.在俄乌战争的最初几个月里，马克龙曾与普京进行严肃紧张的对话，但对话已在最近几个月失败，没有带来明显的结果。“We are an ally of the Americans. We are not equidistant between China and the United States,” the French official said. “But we don’t have the same positions on China, because we don’t have the same interests.”“我们是美国的盟友。我们在中美之间并非等距，”前述法国官员表示。“但我们在中国问题上与美国有不同的立场，因为我们有不相同的利益。”The potential for China to do great harm — whether by arming Russia or invading Taiwan — is too real, in the French view, for any other approach than “re-engagement on the basis of frank dialogue.”在法国人看来，中国造成巨大伤害的可能性——无论是向俄罗斯提供武器还是入侵台湾——再真实不过了，以至于除了“在坦诚对话的基础上重新接触”之外，没有任何其他方法。This is not the language on China of the Biden administration. But if Mr. Macron, and Europe in general, welcome all the critical American support for the war in Ukraine, they do not want the price of revived trans-Atlanticism to be the European loss of China.这不是拜登政府对中国使用的语言。但如果说马克龙和欧洲总体来说，欢迎美国在乌克兰战争中提供的关键支持，他们并不希望复活跨大西洋主义的代价是欧洲失去中国。Roger Cohen是《纽约时报》巴黎分社社长，自2009年至2020年期间担任专栏作者。他为《纽约时报》工作了30多年，曾任驻外记者和驻外编辑。他在南非和英国长大，后来入籍美国。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@NYTimesCohen。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 马克龙访华，计划敦促习近平推动结束俄乌战争