朝鲜派兵援俄背后，普京为何选择“拥抱”朝鲜

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朝鲜派兵援俄背后，普京为何选择“拥抱”朝鲜

ANATOLY KURMANAEV, CHOE SANG-HUN2024年10月25日6月，俄罗斯总统普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩在平壤举行的国宴上，照片由俄罗斯官方媒体发布。 Vladimir Smirnov/Sputnik, via Getty ImagesThousands of North Korean men converged on Russia’s Pacific Coast six years ago. President Vladimir V. Putin had decided to punish North Korea for developing nuclear weapons, and the men — North Korean laborers used by Russian businesses — were being sent home.六年前，数以千计的朝鲜男子聚集在俄罗斯太平洋沿岸——当时，普京总统决定惩罚朝鲜发展核武器的行为，于是这些俄罗斯企业使用的朝鲜劳工被遣送回国。The North Koreans are now being welcomed back to the same Russian region, this time as soldiers. American, Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence agencies have said thousands of them have arrived in recent weeks to aid the Russian war effort in Ukraine, deepening a military alliance resurrected by Mr. Putin and the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, earlier this year.现在，朝鲜人正被迎回到同一俄罗斯地区，这次是作为士兵。美国、乌克兰和韩国情报机构称，最近几周已有数以千计朝鲜人抵达俄罗斯，协助俄罗斯在乌克兰的作战行动，加深了普京和朝鲜领导人金正恩今年早些时候重新建立的军事联盟。The arrival of North Korean soldiers highlights the dramatic transformation of Russia’s relationship with its neighbors and the wider world following the invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago.朝鲜士兵的到来凸显了俄罗斯自两年多前入侵乌克兰以来与邻国及国际社会关系的巨大变化。Russia’s complex economic and political interests on the global stage have been subsumed by the narrow calculus of the war, which the Kremlin has portrayed as an existential struggle for national survival.俄罗斯在全球舞台上复杂的经济和政治利益已被狭隘的战争考量所淹没，克里姆林宫将这场战争描述为关乎国家存亡的斗争。Mr. Putin’s sudden embrace of North Korea, a pariah to much of the world, also shows how the war in Ukraine has erased the last areas of Russia’s cooperation with the West, throwing issues of global importance such as arms control and nuclear nonproliferation into dangerous, uncertain territory. The days when Russia cooperated with a broad coalition, including China and the United States, to try to rein in the North’s nuclear ambitions have vanished.普京突然接纳被世界上许多国家孤立的朝鲜，也显示出乌克兰战争如何抹去了俄罗斯与西方合作的最后领域，将军备控制和核不扩散等具有全球重要性的问题抛入危险、不确定的境地。俄罗斯与包括中国和美国在内的广泛联盟合作遏制朝鲜核野心的日子，已经一去不复返。“This is a major about face for the Russian policy,” said Alexander Gabuev, an expert on Russia’s relations with Asia at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a Berlin-based research group.“这是俄罗斯政策的重大转变，”位于柏林的研究机构卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心的俄罗斯与亚洲关系专家亚历山大·加布耶夫说。“If Russia had previously positioned itself as a useful partner to the West in dealing with problematic nations, it has now turned into a giant problem itself,” he added.“如果说俄罗斯之前把自己定位为西方同问题国家打交道时的有用伙伴，那么现在它自己就成了个大问题，”他还说。Russia’s definitive break with the U.S.-led global order is likely to persist long after the fighting in Ukraine subsides, helping to shape geopolitical collisions like the United States’ standoff with China, Mr. Gabuev added.加布耶夫还说，待乌克兰冲突平息后，俄罗斯明确同美国领导的全球秩序决裂可能仍会持续很长时间，这在一定程度上会影响地缘政治冲突，比如美国与中国的对峙。周一首尔的电视新闻报道显示，据信来自朝鲜的士兵在俄罗斯排队领取补给品。The war in Ukraine has changed Russia’s relations with other neighbors beyond Ukraine. Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, ending decades of neutrality to protect themselves against the threat of Russian aggression. Russia’s closest political ally, Belarus, has moved further into Moscow’s orbit, becoming a logistical hub for the Russian invasion.乌克兰战争改变了俄罗斯与乌克兰以外其他邻国的关系。芬兰和瑞典已结束数十年的中立状态加入北约，保护自己免受俄罗斯侵略的威胁。俄罗斯最亲密的政治盟友白俄罗斯进一步进入莫斯科的轨道，成为俄罗斯入侵的后勤中心。And China has become Russia’s main economic partner, replacing the West as the main buyer of Russian energy exports, as well as a crucial source of consumer goods and dual-use technologies used by Russia in the war, such as drones.中国成为俄罗斯的主要经济伙伴，取代西方成为俄罗斯能源出口的主要买家，也是俄罗斯在战争中使用的消费品和军民两用技术（如无人机）的重要来源。Russia’s relationship with North Korea, however, has arguably undergone the most dramatic transformation.然而，俄罗斯与朝鲜的关系可以说经历了最惊人的转变。The countries’ Cold War-era military alliance officially ended with the fall of the Soviet Union. Impoverished and technologically backward, North Korea had little to offer Russia as the Kremlin built a market economy in the subsequent decades.苏联解体后，两国冷战时期的军事联盟正式结束。随着克里姆林宫在随后几十年里建立了市场经济，贫困和技术落后的朝鲜几乎无法给俄罗斯提供什么。Mr. Putin’s rise to power in 1999 coincided with a jump in oil and gas prices, fueling Russia’s economic boom, which left little need for North Korean imports, beyond the people it could supply for manual labor.1999年普京上台时，石油和天然气价格飙升推动了俄罗斯的经济繁荣，除了朝鲜可以提供的体力劳动人口外，俄罗斯对该国几乎没有进口需求。North Korea’s pressing economic needs allowed Mr. Putin to push a harder diplomatic bargain with the former ally. The country’s illicit development of nuclear weapons worried the Kremlin, which saw it as a threat to regional stability and its own influence in Asia.朝鲜迫切的经济需求让普京得以同这个前盟友进行更强硬的外交谈判。朝鲜非法发展核武器令克里姆林宫感到担忧，认为这对地区稳定和俄罗斯在亚洲的影响力构成了威胁。After North Korea proclaimed itself a nuclear power in 2012, containing its arsenal became a rare shared goal between Russia, China and the West, even as they engaged in a broader standoff.2012年朝鲜宣布自己成为核国家后，遏制其核武库成为俄罗斯、中国和西方之间罕见的共同目标，尽管它们在更广泛的领域进行对峙。In 2017, Russia joined the rest of the United Nations Security Council in imposing comprehensive economic sanctions on North Korea, effectively cutting off Pyongyang from the global economy. Russia never fully complied with those restrictions, but a major reduction of trade did deprive the North of one of the few markets for its limited exports.2017年，俄罗斯与联合国安理会其他成员国一道对朝鲜实施全面经济制裁，有效地切断了平壤与全球经济的联系。俄罗斯从未完全遵守这些限制，但贸易的大幅减少确实使朝鲜失去了为数不多的出口市场之一。Russia gradually wound down the use of North Korean workers, a major source of foreign currency for Pyongyang, despite protests from Russian businesses. The number of registered North Korean workers in Russia fell from a high of 34,000 in 2017 to 11,000 by the end of the following year, according to the most recent available official statistics.俄罗斯不顾俄罗斯企业的抗议，逐渐减少了对朝鲜工人的使用。朝鲜工人是平壤的主要外汇来源。根据可得的最近官方统计数据，在俄罗斯注册的朝鲜工人数量从2017年的3.4万人降至次年年底的1.1万人。2019年，在俄罗斯符拉迪沃斯托克机场候机的朝鲜工人。Though limited in number, those workers were highly valued by Russian employers, who sometimes compared them to soldiers, because of their discipline.虽然人数有限，但这些工人受到俄罗斯雇主的高度重视，因为他们纪律严明，有时甚至会被比作士兵。The economic crackdown went beyond labor. Russian banks stopped dealing with companies associated with North Korea and regulators stopped renewing their licenses.经济打击不仅局限于劳工。俄罗斯的银行停止了与朝鲜有关联公司的业务往来，监管机构不再给这些公司的执照续期。These measures, and border closures caused by the pandemic, brought economic ties to a halt. Bilateral trade fell from the peak of $220 million in 2005 to $3.8 million in 2022, according to the Russian statistical agency and state media.这些措施，加上疫情造成的边境关闭，使两国经济关系陷入停顿。根据俄罗斯统计机构和官方媒体的数据，双边贸易额从2005年2.2亿美元的峰值降至2022年的380万美元。Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that year dramatically reversed the trend.同年，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，极大地扭转了这一趋势。Once it became a war of attrition, Russia began to run low on ammunition and soldiers. In North Korea, Mr. Putin found one of the few nations willing and able to help.战争变成消耗战后，俄罗斯的弹药和士兵开始短缺。普京只能找到极少数愿意并有能力提供帮助的国家，朝鲜是其中之一。In the summer of last year, Ukrainian soldiers begun to find shells with North Korean markings on battlefields. South Korean defense officials have said that since August 2023, North Korea has sent more than 13,000 shipping containers of artillery rounds, anti-tank rockets and KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. It also dispatched technicians and officers to help operate those weapons.去年夏天，乌克兰士兵开始在战场上发现带有朝鲜标记的炮弹。韩国国防官员称，自2023年8月以来，朝鲜向俄罗斯发送了超过13000个集装箱的炮弹、反坦克火箭和KN-23短程弹道导弹。朝鲜还派遣技术人员和军官帮助操作这些武器 。It is unknown how Russia compensates Pyongyang for those supplies. Mr. Gabuev speculated that Russia could be paying North Korea with basic products that are in short supply in the Communist state, such as food and fuel. It could also be sharing valuable technology with Pyongyang, he said.目前尚不清楚俄罗斯将如何补偿朝鲜的这些物资。加布耶夫推测，俄罗斯向朝鲜支付的可能是食品和燃料等在这个共产主义国家短缺的基本产品。他说，它还可能与平壤分享高价值技术。9月，乌克兰前线城镇希尔涅克上空升起的浓烟。The use of North Korean weapons in Ukraine also has practical value for Pyongyang, Western military analysts said. North Korean technicians are able to observe and collect data about how the country’s weapons perform in modern warfare, especially against Western air-defense systems used by its enemy, South Korea.西方军事分析人士说，朝鲜武器在乌克兰的使用对平壤也有实际价值。朝鲜的技术人员能够观察和收集有关该国武器在现代战争中表现的数据，尤其是针对其敌人韩国使用的西方防空系统。The flow of weapons has led to a broader relaxation of trade restrictions between Russia and North Korea, as well as the end of the Kremlin’s efforts to uphold the U.N. sanctions. The value of goods traded by North Korea and Russia, which excludes classified categories such as weapons, jumped ninefold last year, to nearly $35 million, according to Russian state media.武器的流动导致俄罗斯和朝鲜之间的贸易限制变得更加宽松，克里姆林宫也不再支持联合国的制裁措施。据俄罗斯官方媒体报道，朝鲜和俄罗斯之间的商品贸易额（不包括武器等机密类别）去年增长了八倍，达到近3500万美元。Diplomatic rapprochement followed.外交和解随之而来。Mr. Putin rolled out the red carpet for Mr. Kim when he visited Russia last September and toured the aviation, rocket and naval military facilities in the country’s Far East.去年9月访问俄罗斯时，金正恩受到了普京的红毯接待，并参观了俄罗斯远东地区的航空、火箭和海军军事设施。Mr. Kim, for his part, offered perhaps the strongest endorsement of Russia’s invasion by a foreign leader, toasting the Kremlin’s “sacred struggle” against a “band of evil” — the West.金正恩对俄罗斯的入侵表达了可能是外国领导人中最为强烈的支持，他为克里姆林宫反对西方“邪恶集团”的“神圣斗争”而举杯。At that meeting, Mr. Putin still signaled that North Korea’s nuclear weapons presented a limit to the two countries’s military cooperation.在那次会晤中，普京仍然表示，朝鲜的拥核限制了两国军事合作。“There are certain restrictions, Russia abides by those restrictions,” Mr. Putin said. “But there are things we of course can talk about.”“有一些限制，俄罗斯遵守这些限制，”普京说。“但有些事情我们当然可以谈。”Inconclusive fighting in Ukraine appears to have led Mr. Putin to jettison this approach.乌克兰战事的不确定性似乎让普京放弃了这种做法。In June, the Russian leader made his first visit to Pyongyang in nearly a quarter-century. The two countries officially resurrected their Cold War-era military treaty amid grandiose public celebrations.今年6月，普京对平壤进行了近25年来的首次访问。两国在盛大的公众庆祝活动中正式恢复了冷战时期的军事条约。6月，普京和金正恩先生在平壤为俄罗斯总统举行的官方欢迎仪式上，照片由俄罗斯官方媒体发布。Abandoning his previous concerns, Mr. Putin came close during the trip to giving Mr. Kim his most coveted prize: Acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear power.普京放弃了之前的担忧，在这次访问中差一点就给了金正恩最渴望的奖赏：接受朝鲜的核国家地位。“Pyongyang has the right to take reasonable measures to strengthen its own defense capability, ensure national security and protect sovereignty,” Mr. Putin said.“平壤有权采取合理措施，加强自身防御能力，确保国家安全和维护主权，”普京说。The arrival of North Korean troops to Russia marks the next logical step in the deepening military alliance, said Mr. Gabuev, the Russia expert.俄罗斯问题专家加布耶夫说，朝鲜军队抵达俄罗斯，标志着两国军事联盟不断深化的下一个合乎逻辑的步骤。The first units of North Korean soldiers arrived in Russia’s Pacific Coast region this month on Russian Navy ships, according to South Korea’s intelligence agency. There were 3,000 North Korean soldiers on Russian soil this week, the agency said.据韩国情报机构称，第一批朝鲜士兵本月乘坐俄罗斯海军舰艇抵达俄罗斯的太平洋沿岸地区。该机构称，本周有3000名朝鲜士兵出现在俄罗斯领土上。A video published by the Russian independent news outlet Astra this week and verified by The New York Times appears to show North Korean soldiers at a military base near Russia’s Pacific Coast.俄罗斯独立新闻机构Astra本周发布了一段视频，显示朝鲜士兵似乎出现在俄罗斯太平洋海岸附近的一个军事基地，《纽约时报》对视频进行了核实。The Russian government has denied that North Korean soldiers are present in the country, and it remains unclear what role they would play in the war with Ukraine.俄罗斯政府否认朝鲜士兵驻扎在该国，目前还不清楚他们将在与乌克兰的战争中扮演什么角色。Their arrival, however, underlines the reality of a nearly three-year conflict that has claimed hundreds of thousands of Russian dead and wounded, according to Western officials.然而，据西方官员称，他们的到来凸显了这场持续将近三年、已造成数十万俄罗斯人伤亡的冲突的现实。The heavy loss rates have left Russia struggling to attract enough new fighters without resorting to an economically painful and politically dangerous mobilization.惨重的伤亡导致俄罗斯很难吸引到足够的新战士，除非进行一场经济上伤筋动骨和政治上有危险的动员。“Russia needs soldiers and is looking for them everywhere,” said Mr. Gabuev. “What this shows is that it keeps finding solutions.”“俄罗斯需要士兵，正在到处寻找他们，”加布耶夫说。“此事表明它总是能找到解决办法。”Oleg Matsnev和Arijeta Lajka对本文有研究贡献。Anatoly Kurmanaev报道入侵乌克兰后俄罗斯发生的变化。点击更多查看关于他的信息。Choe Sang-Hun是时报驻首尔首席记者，报道韩国和朝鲜新闻。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。  https://feedx.run

Source: 朝鲜派兵援俄背后，普京为何选择“拥抱”朝鲜