若特朗普当选，最大受益人可能是中国

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若特朗普当选，最大受益人可能是中国

ROBINSON MEYER2024年9月12日 Illustration by The New York TimesThere is a curious cognitive dissonance in how a lot of us think about the last decade’s climate policies and this decade’s economic problems.在很多人对过去十年的气候政策和这个十年的经济问题的看法中，存在着一种奇怪的认知失调。During the final years of the 2010s, the Trump administration proudly tore up dozens of policies meant to lower American greenhouse gas emissions and build a competitive domestic clean energy industry. It prioritized oil, coal and natural gas businesses over wind, solar and batteries, and as president, Donald Trump often seemed to revel in picking policies that would increase emissions by design.在2010年代的最后几年里，特朗普政府得意地毁掉了数十项旨在减少美国温室气体排放、在国内建设具有竞争力的清洁能源产业的政策。它优先发展石油、煤炭和天然气行业，而不是风能、太阳能和电池，特朗普当总统时似乎常常喜欢选择有意增加碳排放的政策。These choices came with costs: American automakers failed to make their cars more efficient, and within a few years, they had fallen behind their international competition, especially South Korean and Chinese automakers.这些选择是有代价的：美国的汽车制造商未能提高汽车的燃油效率，几年内，它们就落在了国际竞争对手的后面，尤其是韩国和中国的汽车制造商。Today, the United States finds itself badly lagging behind China not just in hybrid and electric vehicles but also in many other crucial industries: solar, wind and battery production, as well as the refining of some minerals. China now makes more than half of the world’s electric vehicles, and BYD, the Chinese automaker, is expanding so quickly that it has plans to open factories abroad in Europe, Central Asia, Southeast Asia and South America.如今，美国不仅在混合动力和电动汽车生产上远远落在了中国后面，而且在太阳能、风能、电池生产，以及某些矿物的提炼等许多其他关键领域远远地落在了中国之后。中国目前生产了全球一半以上的电动汽车，而中国汽车制造商比亚迪的扩张速度之快，让它已有在海外开设工厂的计划，包括在欧洲、中亚、东南亚和南美。Those were the costs of just one Trump term. If Mr. Trump returns to Washington, he has promised to once again pull us out of the Paris climate agreement, which the United States had rejoined under the Biden administration. He again wants to kill the country’s clean car standards. And he’s threatened to cut off the generous federal subsidies for selling and building electric vehicles in the Inflation Reduction Act, President Biden’s signature climate policy. Although he’s recently softened some of his hate for electric vehicles — “you know, because Elon endorsed me very strongly,” he said in Georgia last month, referring to Tesla’s chief executive, Elon Musk — he still believes only a “very small slice” of cars should run on electricity.这些只是特朗普担任了一任总统的代价。如果特朗普重返华盛顿，他已放话要让美国再次退出《巴黎气候协定》，美国在拜登政府领导下重新加入了巴黎协定。他想再次取消美国的清洁汽车标准。他还威胁要砍掉联邦政府为销售和制造电动汽车提供的慷慨补贴，这项补贴是拜登总统的标志性气候政策《降低通货膨胀法案》的一部分。尽管他对电动汽车的厌恶态度最近缓和了一点儿——“你知道，因为埃隆非常强烈地支持我，”他上个月在佐治亚州谈到特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克时说——但他仍认为只有“很小一部分”汽车应该是电动的。Mr. Trump’s policies would devastate America’s growing electric vehicle industry. They would allow China to consolidate its control of the world’s electric vehicle and lithium-ion battery industries, and they would hamstring American — or European or East Asian — companies from developing the necessary expertise to compete with China.特朗普的政策将摧毁美国正在起步的电动汽车行业。他的政策将让中国巩固其对全球电动汽车和锂离子电池行业的控制，阻碍美国（或欧洲和东亚）的公司发展与中国竞争所需的专门技能。For all of Mr. Trump’s putative concerns about American manufacturing, his obsession with fossil fuels — and the industry’s financial hold on him — has blinded him to what will drive industrial competitiveness in the future. America did not just happen to fall behind China in the years after he killed our climate policies. America has fallen behind China in large part because Mr. Trump killed our climate policies. With him once again in the Oval Office, America would be at risk of falling even further behind.虽然特朗普口头上对美国的制造行业表示担心，但他对化石燃料的痴迷——以及该行业通过政治捐款对他的控制——使他对什么将推动未来的工业竞争力失去了判断力。在特朗普扼杀了我们的气候政策后的几年里，美国落在中国后面，这不是偶然发生的，而是在很大程度上恰恰因为他扼杀了我们的气候政策。如果他再次入主白宫，美国将面临进一步落后的危险。When Mr. Trump took office in 2017, American carmakers pushed him to roll back the Obama administration’s strict tailpipe pollution rules that financially rewarded automakers that sold plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles.特朗普2017年上任时，美国汽车制造商们曾敦促他降低奥巴马政府对汽车尾气排放规定的严格标准，该标准对销售插电式混合动力汽车和电动汽车的汽车制造商给予经济奖励。But Mr. Trump wound up going so far in his rollbacks that some of the automakers blanched, either because the cuts went much further than executives expected or because they realized that the denuded standards would place their companies out of step with the global market. By 2019, a handful of automakers — Ford, Volkswagen, Honda and BMW — struck a deal with California to adopt slightly stricter rules. But other companies, including General Motors, did not reverse course on the rollback until after the 2020 election.但特朗普最终在降低标准方面走得如此之远，以至于一些汽车制造商们都感到惊讶，要么是因为标准降低的程度远远超出了高管们的预期，要么是因为他们意识到降低的标准会让他们的公司与全球市场脱节。到了2019年，少数几家汽车制造商——福特、大众、本田和宝马——与加州达成协议，采用了略微严格的标准。但包括通用汽车在内的其他公司直到2020年大选后才扭转了降低尾气排放标准的方向。The dangers of this approach for American companies were clear at the time. When Mr. Trump took the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, many observers — myself included — warned that China would seize the opportunity to excel in the industries of the future, especially renewables. That became even more likely when Mr. Trump rolled back the rules on tailpipe emissions.这种做法对美国公司的危害当时就显而易见。特朗普让美国退出巴黎气候协议后，许多观察人士（包括我本人）曾警告说，中国会抓住这个机会成为未来行业的领军者，尤其是在可再生能源领域。特朗普降低了尾气排放标准后，这种情况就更为可能发生了。Mr. Trump’s only answer to this risk was to impose tariffs on some Chinese-made renewables. But he did not provide the kind of robust spending or regulatory certainty that would have allowed American companies to compete with Chinese ones — so China did, in fact, cement a lead in green tech during this period.特朗普对这种风险的唯一反应是对中国的一些可再生能源产品征收关税。但他没有提供本会让美国公司能够与中国公司竞争的足够资金或监管确定性，事实上，中国在这期间巩固了自己在绿色技术领域的领先地位。Today, China produces more than 80 percent of the world’s solar panels, and it controls about six-tenths of the world’s wind-power manufacturing capacity. Chinese companies make 75 percent of the world’s lithium-ion batteries. The country also dominates the mining and refining of the minerals that go into renewables, electronics and batteries.如今，中国生产全球80%以上的太阳能电池板，控制着全球约60%的风力发电设备制造能力。中国公司制造全球75%的锂离子电池。中国还主导着可再生能源、电子产品和电池所需矿物的开采和提炼。China achieved this commanding position by taking nearly the opposite approach that Mr. Trump did. Through the 2010s, the Chinese government used a combination of enormous subsidies, regulations and bureaucratic nudges to encourage the creation of a thriving electric vehicle industry. Chinese consumers got a rebate when they bought an electric vehicle, hydrogen car or plug-in hybrid. The government made it easier for them to get a license plate for a new-energy vehicle than a gas-burning car.中国取得这种主导地位，是因为它采取了与特朗普几乎完全相反的做法。在整个2010年代，中国政府采用巨额补贴、法规和官员督促结合起来的做法，鼓励电动汽车行业蓬勃发展。中国消费者购买电动汽车、氢动力汽车或插电式混合动力汽车可获得折扣。政府让购买新能源汽车的人比购买燃油汽车的人更容易拿到车牌。To be sure, China didn’t foster the E.V. industry solely for environmental reasons. Unlike America, which has abundant oil and natural gas, China is relatively energy poor. Its standing as the world’s largest oil importer is a profound national security problem, and China has sought to improve its position by embracing electric vehicles and fuel-efficient plug-in hybrids as well as building more coal plants, nuclear plants and solar and wind farms.当然，中国扶植电动汽车行业并不只是为了环境原因。中国与美国不同，美国有丰富的石油和天然气资源，中国的能源相对匮乏。中国是世界上最大的石油进口国，这一地位给其带来了深刻的国家安全问题，为了改变这一地位，中国一直在寻求发展电动汽车和省油的插电式混合动力汽车，以及建设更多的燃煤发电厂、核电站、太阳能和风电场。But the combination of Mr. Trump’s apathy and China’s investment means America is now rushing to catch up to China’s lead in the solar, wind, battery and electric vehicle industries. It is an open question whether it can get there.但特朗普对新能源的冷淡和中国在这个领域的投资意味着，美国现在正在急着追赶中国在太阳能、风能、电池和电动汽车行业的领先地位。能否赶上仍是个悬而未决的问题。The Biden administration has been trying to help America in this race. The Inflation Reduction Act rewards companies that make electric vehicles and batteries, or refine certain critical minerals. The White House is reportedly considering creating a backstop for mineral prices to encourage their mining and refining. (China already employs a similar strategy in many sectors.) A potential Harris administration would most likely continue these initiatives.拜登政府一直在帮助美国赢得这场竞赛。《降低通货膨胀法案》奖励那些生产电动汽车和电池或提炼某些关键矿物的公司。白宫据称正在考虑为矿产价格提供后盾，以鼓励其开采和提炼。（中国已经在许多行业采用了类似的策略。）如何贺锦丽上台，很可能会延续这些措施。But catching up will take time. Ford, despite a promising start, has failed to create an efficient or profitable electric vehicle division and recently delayed the launch of its new electric vehicle platform to 2027. G.M. has also struggled to get its electric vehicle unit off the ground. And the big, bloated cars on America’s roads have created a profound safety crisis — America’s roads are, by one measure, more dangerous than Russia’s in part because of our gargantuan gas-guzzling vehicles.但追赶需要时间。尽管福特汽车开局良好，但未能创建一个有效运行或盈利的电动汽车部门，最近将其新电动汽车平台的推出推迟到了2027年。通用汽车也一直在让其电动汽车部门起步上困难重重。美国道路上大型、臃肿的汽车已制造了一种严重的安全危机，在某种程度上，美国的道路比俄罗斯的还危险，部分原因是我们的道路上行驶着耗油量大的庞然大物。Can these failures be laid solely at Mr. Trump’s feet? No. America’s automakers, after all, resisted the electric vehicle transition for years. And the United States also faces some core challenges competing with China on E.V.s: Gasoline may be too cheap here relative to income, and consumers may be too wealthy, for the kind of rapid uptake of these cars we’ve seen in China.这些失败能完全归咎于特朗普吗？不能。毕竟，美国的汽车制造商们多年来一直不想向电动汽车转型。而且，美国在电动汽车方面与中国竞争也面临着一些核心挑战：相对于收入水平而言，美国的汽油可能太便宜，消费者可能太富有，让我们无法像在中国看到的那样快速普及电动汽车。But failing to build a competitive electric vehicle industry would present chronic trade and security concerns for the United States. Within the decade, electric vehicles will be just another type of car, and many countries will encourage people to switch to them. As such, American automakers’ markets will continue to shrink.但不能建设一个有竞争力的电动汽车行业将给美国带来长期的贸易和国家安全担忧。在未来十年内，电动汽车将变得非常普遍，许多国家将鼓励人们转向电动汽车。因此，美国汽车制造商的市场将继续萎缩。More important, batteries are the kind of technology that will ripple across the economy and society, much like lasers, satellites and semiconductors. The military gear of the future — autonomous ships, drone swarms and even short-haul airplanes — will run on low-cost, energy-dense batteries. (Just look at Ukraine’s success at using cheap, battery-powered drones to fight Russia’s invasion to get a sense of how this could play out.) The United States and its allies must be able to spin up the rapid mass production of batteries in a crisis; the electric vehicle industry is how modern-day economies get good at making lots of batteries. Without an electric vehicle industry, without the ability to mass-produce batteries in an emergency, the United States will lose its status as an energy superpower.更重要的是，电池将像激光、卫星和半导体那样，成为一种对经济和社会产生连锁影响的技术。未来的军事装备——自动驾驶的船舶、无人机群，甚至短途飞机——将使用低成本、高能量密度的电池。（只要看看乌克兰在使用廉价的电池动力无人机抵抗俄罗斯入侵的成功，就能认识到这一发展方向。）美国及其盟友必须能够在发生危机时加快电池的大规模生产；而电动汽车行业则是让现代经济体提高电池制造能力的方法。没有电动汽车行业，就没有在紧急情况下大规模生产电池的能力，美国也将失去其能源超级大国的地位。It is possible to fall so far behind in an industry that a country cannot reasonably catch up. Europe, for all its wealth and education, has never developed a software industry to rival America’s. Even America’s fossil fuel industry — for all its faults and societal costs — leads the rest of the world in expertise and sheer technical skill. Nobody can frack like us.在某个行业中，一个国家可能会落后到难以迎头赶上的地步。欧洲尽管有大量财富和很高的受教育水平，但从未发展出与美国相媲美的软件行业。就连美国的化石燃料行业（尽管存在种种缺陷，还有高的社会成本）也在专业知识和纯技术能力上领先于世界其他国家。没有人能像我们这样水力压裂开采油气。But by the same token: Nobody can make a battery like China. The American economy will rely on batteries in the future, just as much — if not more — than it relies on fracking today. The United States is at risk of never learning to produce those batteries and falling ineluctably behind. A Trump victory would help cement that defeat.但由于同样的原因，没有人能像中国那样制造电池。美国经济未来依赖电池的程度，将与现在依赖水力压裂开采的程度一样大，如果不是更大的话。美国面临着永远学不会生产这些电池、不可避免地落在后面的风险。特朗普在大选中获胜将有助于巩固美国的失败地位。Robinson Meyer是一名观点文章作者，也是Heatmap创始执行主编，这是一家媒体公司，主要关注气候变化。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

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