气球危机持续发酵，中国能否避免事态升级？

[SuHaiJack]

气球危机持续发酵，中国能否避免事态升级？

王月眉2023年2月13日上周四，联邦调查局的一个小组在位于弗吉尼亚州匡蒂科的实验室里处理中国气球残骸。 F.B.I., via Associated PressBEIJING — Since the spy balloon saga started, China has tried to play down the incident, maintaining that the United States is overreacting and that the vessel is mainly for gathering meteorological data.北京——自间谍气球事件开始以来，中国一直试图淡化这件事，坚称美国反应过度，该无人飞艇主要是用于收集气象数据。But as American alarm and accusations have mounted about a broad surveillance program by Beijing, that strategy is increasingly coming under strain, forcing China into an awkward, at times self-contradictory position. Beijing is also starting to adopt a more confrontational tone, further raising the specter of escalation.但随着美国对中国政府的广泛监视计划的警告和指责越来越多，后者面临的压力也越来越大，迫使其陷入一种尴尬的、有时甚至自相矛盾的境地。北京也开始采取更具对抗性的口吻，进一步加剧了升级风险。A foreign ministry spokeswoman on Friday accused the United States of using “pure political manipulation” against China. Earlier in the week, China rebuffed an American request for a phone call between the two countries’ defense ministers. A Chinese diplomat said that even if U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken had visited Beijing this week — Mr. Blinken scrapped the visit because of the balloon — it would not have done any good for bilateral relations.中国外交部发言人上周五指责美国在气球事件上的做法“纯属政治操弄”。上周早些时候，中国拒绝了美国提出的两国防长的通话建议。一名中国外交官说，即使美国国务卿布林肯上周访问了中国，也不会对双边关系带来任何好处。布林肯因气球事件取消了访问行程。“I think we’re past the stage” of the incident not becoming a big deal, Drew Thompson, a former U.S. Defense Department official on China, said of the Chinese attempts to minimize fallout. Mr. Thompson is now a visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore.“我认为我们已经过了”不让事态变大的阶段，曾在美国国防部担任中国问题官员的唐安竹(Drew Thompson)在谈到中国试图将影响降到最低时说。唐安竹现在是新加坡李光耀公共政策学院的高级访问学者。China’s inconsistent messaging was feeding tensions even if that was not the direct goal, Mr. Thompson continued. He pointed to Beijing’s vague attribution of the balloon to an unspecified civilian company, and its claim that its wayward trajectory was an isolated mistake — a claim seemingly undermined by the revelation of a second Chinese balloon over Latin America.尽管不是其直接目的，但中国不一致的信息传递加剧了紧张局势，唐安竹继续说道。他指出，中国政府说气球属于一家未披露名字的民用企业，并声称气球飞行方向失控是个孤立的错误，但这个说法似乎已被拉丁美洲上空发现的第二个中国气球所削弱。中国外交部发言人毛宁上周在北京主持例行记者会。“Unnamed companies, disingenuous statements, essentially a lack of credible messaging from Beijing drive a degree of discomfort in Washington that is not going to contribute to a stable situation,” Mr. Thompson said.“未披露名字的公司、不真诚的声明，基本上没有来自北京的可信信息，这些都在华盛顿引起了一定程度的不安，无助于稳定局势，”唐安竹表示。When news of the balloon’s foray over the United States first emerged last week, it seemed possible that attention to it would quickly pass. The Biden administration said the vessel posed no threat to Americans. China, for its part, was unusually contrite, issuing a rare acknowledgment of fault and expressing regret.两周前，气球在美国上空出现的消息首次公开后，人们对气球的关注似乎有可能很快会过去。拜登政府曾表示，气球对美国人不构成威胁。中国也罕见地承认了错误，还表示了遗憾。China in recent months has striven for a more conciliatory tone in its diplomacy, compared to the abrasive “Wolf Warrior” style often assumed under China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Battered by three years of Covid restrictions and an unsteady economy, Beijing seems intent on focusing on domestic issues and minimizing its conflicts on the world stage.与中国领导人习近平上台后经常采取的粗暴的“战狼”风格相比，中国在最近几个月力求使用更为温和的外交口吻。在三年的新冠“清零”和不景气经济的打击下，中国政府似乎想把注意力集中在国内问题上，尽量减少世界舞台上的冲突。But it has become clear this week that the incident is not going to fade so easily.但上周已变得清楚的是，气球事件不会那么容易地淡出视野。On Thursday, the State Department laid out, in the most detail to date, its view that the balloon was part of a global surveillance fleet directed by China’s military. American officials have also said that they have shared information on the espionage program with dozens of countries, and are weighing measures against Chinese companies or other bodies that may have been involved.美国国务院上周四给出了迄今为止最详细的说法，认为该气球是中国军方指挥的全球侦察气球编队的一部分。美国官员还表示，他们已与数十个国家分享了有关中国气球侦察计划的信息，并正在权衡对中国公司或其他可能参与其中的部门采取措施。America’s domestic political calendar may also have contributed to the continually simmering tensions. Though he did not directly mention the balloon in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, President Biden promised to ward off Chinese threats to U.S. sovereignty, and declared that few world leaders would envy Mr. Xi. The president repeated those criticisms in a subsequent interview with PBS NewsHour, where he said that the Chinese leader faced “enormous problems,” including a weakened economy.美国国内政治的日程表可能也是两国紧张局势持续升温的原因之一。虽然拜登总统在上周二的国情咨文中没有直接提到气球事件，但他发誓要抵御中国威胁美国主权的行为，并宣称世界上没有几个领导人会羡慕习近平。拜登在发表演讲后接受美国公共广播公司NewsHour采访时重复了这些说法，他说中国领导人需要对付“巨大的问题”，包括经济疲软。China, probably unsurprisingly, has hit back, with state media bashing Mr. Biden’s speech. The Global Times, a nationalist Communist Party-run tabloid, said the address, including its singling out of China, “did not seem like a State of the Union by the president of a major country that considers itself a world leader.”中国对此奋力反击，大概就不足为奇了。中国官媒抨击了拜登的演讲。中共的民族主义小报《环球时报》称，拜登的演讲（包括他将中国挑出来进行批评的做法）“不像是一个以世界领导者自居的大国总统发表的国情咨文”。At a news conference on Thursday, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, called Mr. Biden’s comments about Mr. Xi “highly irresponsible” and a “violation of basic diplomatic protocol.”中国外交部发言人毛宁在上周四的例行记者会上表示，拜登对习近平的评论“极不负责任”，“违反了基本的外交礼节”。拜登总统上周二发表国情咨文演讲。Ms. Mao has also increasingly moved away from the initial regret the foreign ministry expressed about the balloon incident in general, repeatedly accusing the United States of exaggeration and hypocrisy.毛宁也在越来越远地偏离外交部最初对气球事件表示遗憾的说法，多次指责美国夸张、虚伪。“I am not aware of any ‘fleet of balloons,’” she said in response to a reporter’s question about the United States’ allegation of a wide-ranging balloon spying program. “That narrative is probably part of the information and public opinion warfare the U.S. has waged on China. As to who is the world’s number-one country of spying, eavesdropping and surveillance, that is plainly visible to the international community.” “我没有听说过什么‘机群’，”她在回答记者关于美国指控中国的大范围气球侦察计划的问题时说。“这是美方对中国进行信息舆论战的一部分。谁是世界上最大的间谍监听监测国家，国际社会看得很清楚。”China’s defense ministry took a similarly hard line when it issued a statement on Thursday explaining its rejection of a proposed phone call from its American counterpart. It called the United States’ downing of the balloon an “irresponsible, serious mistake” that did not foster conditions for dialogue.中国国防部上周四发表声明，解释拒绝美国提出的两国防长通话的建议时，采取了类似的强硬立场。中国国防部称美国击落气球是“不负责任的严重错误”，没有为开展对话交流创造条件。On Monday, China’s ambassador to France had made perhaps the most aggressive public comments yet, in an interview with a French television program. The ambassador, Lu Shaye, said that it would have been inappropriate for Mr. Blinken to visit China, anyway, given actions leading up to the visit that Mr. Lu described as anti-China. He cited the planned U.S. military expansion in the Philippines and arms sales to Taiwan.上周一，中国驻法国大使在接受法国电视节目采访时发表了也许是迄今为止最气势汹汹的公开说法。卢沙野大使说，布林肯“所谓的访问本就不合时宜，因为近期美方进行了很多反华活动”，他给的例子包括美国扩大在菲律宾的军事存在和对台军售的计划。Many Chinese political commentators have maintained that the United States is the driver of tensions, and that China is eager for a détente. But even in saying so, some have adopted a hawkish tone.中国的许多政治评论人士坚持认为，美国是紧张局势始作俑者，中国渴望缓和局势。但一些人在坚持这种说法的同时仍采取了鹰派的口吻。北京街头的一个大屏幕上在展示中国军队。“It will be difficult for China-U.S. relations to return to a benign and healthy development track, and the United States should bear the main responsibility for this,” Shen Yi, a prominent professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, said in a column. He added that the balloon incident had “revealed a bit of America’s true face.”上海复旦大学有名的国际关系学教授沈逸在一篇专栏文章中写道，“中美关系将很难回到良性、健康的发展轨道上，美方应对此负主要责任。”他还说，气球事件“显露出美国真实面貌的一角”。Beijing has offered some olive branches. On Thursday, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said China would welcome a visit from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in response to Ms. Yellen’s statement earlier this week that she still hoped to go.中国政府也伸出了一些橄榄枝。上周四，中国商务部发言人表示，中国欢迎美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦来访，这是对耶伦上周早些时候表示仍希望访华的回应。The Global Times, despite attacking Mr. Biden’s State of the Union address, also published an opinion piece emphasizing the importance of Chinese and American economic interdependence.尽管《环球时报》抨击了拜登的国情咨文，但也发表了一篇评论文章，强调中美在经济上相互依赖的重要性。Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, an Australia-based foreign policy think tank, said that any explicit moves toward escalation would likely come from the United States, given that it had more reasons to do so. He cited the bipartisan political pressure and anxiety about China’s rise. “It makes the U.S. actions a little more unpredictable than China’s,” he said.澳大利亚外交政策智库洛伊研究所的东亚高级研究员马利德(Richard McGregor)表示，任何明确的升级做法很可能都来自美国，因为美国有更多的理由这样做。他列举了两党政治的压力，以及对中国崛起的焦虑。“这让美国的做法与中国的相比更难预测，”他说。China, he added, did not yet seem to be abandoning its hopes for a softer diplomatic tack, despite the unexpected challenges: “They’ve committed to a new direction for the moment.”他还说，尽管出现了意想不到的挑战，但中国似乎仍未放弃采取更温和的外交策略的希望：“他们目前已承诺走入新方向。”But as the drumbeat of information about the balloon from the United States continues, China could face added pressure to respond more harshly.但随着美国继续不停地对气球事件发声，中国可能面临需要做出更严厉回应的更大压力。The onus was likely on China to forestall more tensions, Douglas H. Paal, a former American diplomat and scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said at a webinar on Friday.阻止更多紧张局势的责任可能在中国，美国前外交官包道格(Douglas H. Paal)上周五在一个网络研讨会上表示，他现在是卡内基国际和平基金会的学者。“You have to light a backfire against this coming series of revelations early on,” he said at the event hosted by the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing think tank. “It would be smart for both sides, especially for the Chinese side, to start being more responsive before events start to accumulate again.”“中国需要在接连不断的爆料出来之前尽早做好准备，”包道格在北京智库中国与全球化中心主办的活动上说。“对双方来说，尤其是对中方来说，在事件开始再次累积之前，一开始就做出更积极的反应是明智做法。”Joy Dong对本文有研究贡献。王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者，常驻北京，撰写关于中国的崛起及野心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@vwang3。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 气球危机持续发酵，中国能否避免事态升级？