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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 28–May 02, 2025
The past week was marked by strong growth in both traditional and digital assets. The euro demonstrated notable strengthening against the dollar, gold continued to climb aggressively, and bitcoin maintained its position within a bullish channel. As we move into the coming week, investors should be prepared for potential corrections across all three instruments, followed by renewed attempts at growth or continued trends depending on key technical levels.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD currency pair ended the previous trading week with confident gains, closing near 1.1364. Moving averages indicate the formation of a bullish trend, with prices having broken through the area between the signal lines upwards, confirming the buyers' pressure on the European currency. In the coming week, an attempt to continue the bullish correction is expected, with quotes likely to test the resistance area around 1.1525. However, from this level, a downward rebound is anticipated, followed by a continuation of the pair's decline towards the area below 1.0795.
An additional signal supporting a decline in EUR/USD would be a test of the resistance line on the relative strength indicator (RSI), alongside a possible rebound from the upper boundary of the bullish channel. A cancellation of the downward scenario would require strong growth and a breakout above 1.1765, which would open the way for a further rise towards the 1.1995 level. On the downside, confirmation of continued weakening would come if quotes break and close below 1.1205, signalling a breakout of the bullish correction channel's lower border.
XAU/USD
Gold ended the trading week with sharp gains, closing near the 3319 area. XAU/USD continues to move within a correction and a bullish channel, with moving averages pointing to the preservation of the upward trend. Buyers have successfully pushed prices upwards through the area between the signal lines, reinforcing expectations of further growth. In the early part of the new week, a bearish correction could develop, with a likely test of the support level near 3195. After this, a rebound is expected, followed by continued growth towards a potential target above 3745.
A further signal favouring continued growth would be a rebound from the trend line on the RSI, as well as a bounce from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. A cancellation of the growth scenario would require a fall and a breakout below the 3145 area, which would indicate a breakdown of the bullish channel's lower boundary and a potential decline in gold prices towards 2775. Confirmation of renewed growth will be provided by a breakout above the resistance area and the closing of quotes above 3425.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin finished the trading week at the 94720 level, continuing its movement within a well-defined bullish channel. Moving averages confirm the presence of an upward trend, with prices breaking through the area between the signal lines, highlighting strong demand from buyers. In the short term, a bearish correction is possible, with a test of the support area near 87305 anticipated. From this zone, an upward rebound is expected, leading to a potential continuation of the rise towards 125605.
An additional signal favouring bitcoin's growth will be a rebound from the bullish channel's lower boundary, supported by a test of the support line on the RSI. The growth scenario could be cancelled if BTC/USD falls and breaks through the 72565 level, which would suggest a further decline towards 64505. A breakout above the resistance area and a closing of quotes above 98505 will confirm the continuation of the bullish trend.
Conclusion
The overall market picture remains tilted towards bullish trends for the euro, gold, and bitcoin, although the coming days may bring corrective movements as part of broader upward structures. Key resistance and support levels will play a decisive role in determining whether the corrections are short-lived or signal a deeper reversal. Traders should remain alert to breakouts of major technical boundaries, which will offer clearer signals for the further development of trends during the week from April 28 to May 2, 2025.
NordFX Analytical Group

Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 10 - 14, 2025

The past trading week saw significant movements across major financial instruments, with notable volatility in forex, gold, and cryptocurrency markets. The euro demonstrated strong growth against the US dollar, while gold remained within its bullish channel despite undergoing a correction. Bitcoin continued to test key levels, showing signs of both support and resistance as it fluctuated within a downward correction channel.
Looking ahead to the upcoming week, market participants should brace for continued fluctuations driven by economic data releases, central bank policy expectations, and broader risk sentiment. EUR/USD is poised for potential gains despite facing resistance, gold may extend its uptrend following a correction, and bitcoin remains at a critical juncture where a further decline could signal a deeper correction.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed the previous week with strong growth, settling near 1.0837. Despite the overall bearish trend indicated by moving averages, prices have broken above the signal lines, suggesting renewed bullish momentum. In the coming week, the pair may initially experience a pullback towards the support area at 1.0655 before rebounding and continuing its upward trajectory. The primary growth target for the euro stands above 1.1175.
A key factor supporting this potential rise is a test of the support line on the relative strength index (RSI), which historically signals upward reversals. Additionally, a bounce from the lower boundary of the bullish channel would reinforce this scenario. However, a decline below 1.0505 would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially triggering a deeper fall towards 1.0245. Confirmation of sustained growth would require a breakout above 1.0885, which would indicate a breach of the upper boundary of the descending channel.

XAU/USD

ongoing bullish trend. Moving averages continue to reflect an upward trajectory, and the price action suggests that buyers remain in control. For the upcoming week, a short-term decline towards the support level at 2865 is likely before an upward reversal leads to further gains. The primary target for gold remains above 3085.
An additional confirmation of the bullish scenario will be a rebound from the trend line on the RSI, as well as a reaction at the lower boundary of the bullish channel. However, a drop below 2745 would signal the cancellation of this bullish outlook, potentially driving prices down towards 2675. Conversely, a breakout above 2965 would reinforce expectations of continued growth.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin concluded the previous week at 88,497, maintaining its position within a broader corrective phase. Although the moving averages still point to an overall uptrend, the market is currently facing downward pressure. In the week ahead, BTC/USD may test the support level at 86,505 before attempting another upward move towards 115,685.
A rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel or the RSI trend line would support this bullish scenario. However, if bitcoin breaks below 72,305, it would invalidate the upward trend and could lead to a deeper decline, with a target at 66,405. A confirmed bullish continuation would require a breakout above 96,055, which would indicate a shift back towards a more aggressive upward trend.

The coming trading week is expected to bring heightened market activity, with EUR/USD seeking support before resuming its climb, gold aiming for further gains after a correction, and bitcoin standing at a crucial technical threshold. Key support and resistance levels will determine the next major movements for each asset. Traders should remain vigilant to economic releases and technical indicators to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 03 - 07, 2025

The past week saw notable market fluctuations across major Forex and cryptocurrency pairs, with the euro weakening against the dollar, gold maintaining its bullish momentum, and bitcoin experiencing downward pressure despite an overall long-term uptrend. Moving into the first full week of March, volatility is expected to persist, driven by macroeconomic indicators, central bank comments, and investor sentiment. The euro is showing signs of a possible rebound, gold is poised to continue its bullish trajectory, and bitcoin faces key support and resistance levels that could define its next major move.

EUR/USD

The euro-dollar pair ended the week lower, closing near 1.0387 as it remained within a corrective phase and formed a "Triangle" pattern. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, with the price breaking through key moving average signals. Sellers appear to be in control, pointing to a possible continuation of the downtrend. In the coming week, an attempt to test the support zone near 1.0255 is expected, followed by a potential rebound that could push the pair towards the 1.0805 level.
A test of the support line on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) would confirm the likelihood of an upward correction. Additionally, a bounce from the lower boundary of the "Triangle" pattern would reinforce bullish prospects. However, if the pair breaks below 0.9965, the bearish outlook will be confirmed, potentially driving the euro down to 0.9645. A breakout above 1.0645, on the other hand, would signal renewed bullish momentum, indicating a possible breach of the upper boundary of the "Triangle" and setting targets higher.

XAU/USD

Gold remains within a strong bullish trend, with the price continuing to move inside an ascending channel. The breakout above key moving average levels confirms ongoing buying pressure. However, a temporary correction could lead to a test of support near 2835 before prices resume their uptrend. If this scenario plays out, the next upside target lies above 3075.
Further confirmation of gold's bullish continuation would come from an RSI trendline rebound and a bounce from the lower boundary of the channel. Should the price fall and break below 2735, the bullish outlook would be invalidated, signaling a potential decline towards 2665. On the upside, a breakout and close above 2935 would affirm the continuation of the upward movement, keeping gold on track for new highs.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin ended the week at 79,552, staying within a downtrend as it moves towards completing the "Triangle" pattern. While the long-term trend remains upward, the cryptocurrency is currently under selling pressure, as indicated by its break below key moving average signals. A short-term recovery is possible, with an expected test of resistance near 86,505 before renewed downward momentum potentially drives the price towards 61,605.
A confirmation of the bearish scenario would come from a bounce off the lower boundary of the "Triangle" and rejection at the RSI resistance line. If bitcoin manages to break and sustain above 97,045, the bearish outlook would be negated, opening the way for further gains towards 105,605. Conversely, a break below 72,065 would indicate stronger selling pressure and confirm the continuation of the bearish movement.

The upcoming trading week presents a mix of opportunities and risks across Forex and cryptocurrency markets. The euro remains under pressure but could see a recovery if it holds key support levels. Gold continues its bullish momentum, though a short-term correction is likely before further gains. Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, with a possible rebound before a continued decline unless it breaks key resistance. Traders should stay vigilant, monitor economic developments, and prepare for potential volatility in the days ahead.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 10 - 14, 2025

The past week saw contrasting movements in key markets. The euro continued to lose ground against the US dollar, with bearish sentiment dominating the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, bitcoin remained strong despite minor pullbacks, holding its place in a bullish trend channel. Gold prices, too, extended their rise, reflecting continued market demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties. As we look ahead to the upcoming week, market trends suggest potential shifts in key assets depending on support and resistance levels.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded last week near 1.0393, marking another decline as bearish momentum persisted. A reversal pattern, identified as the "Head and Shoulders," remains in play, indicating continued pressure on the euro. Moving averages confirm the bearish trend, and the pair broke below key signal lines, reinforcing expectations for further downside movement.
In the coming week, the pair may test the support level near 1.0290. If this level holds, a rebound is anticipated, potentially propelling the euro toward a target of 1.0735. Technical indicators, including a test of the support line on the relative strength index (RSI), point towards this recovery scenario. However, should the pair breach 0.9985, the bearish outlook would be reaffirmed, setting the stage for a decline towards the 0.9675 region.
Ultimately, the focus for EUR/USD traders remains on whether the pair can sustain its current support levels or whether further bearish action will drive it to new lows.

XAU/USD

Gold ended the week trading near 2870, maintaining its position within a strong bullish channel. Moving averages indicate that the upward momentum remains intact, with prices breaking higher across key signal areas. This suggests that market sentiment remains favourable for continued gold price growth in the near term.
Despite the bullish sentiment, a short-term correction could lead to a test of the 2755 support level. If prices find stability there, a rebound toward the 3165 target is likely. A key signal supporting this scenario is a potential bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel, complemented by RSI trends pointing to continued upward momentum. Conversely, if gold prices breach the 2635 level, a deeper correction toward 2555 could unfold.
Given its safe-haven status, gold's trajectory this week will likely reflect both technical dynamics and broader risk sentiment in the markets.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin remains resilient, closing last week at 97,224. The asset has stayed within an established bullish channel, with moving averages suggesting a continuation of the uptrend. The break above key signal lines has underscored renewed buying interest, even though short-term corrections are still part of the market dynamic.
In the coming week, bitcoin may test support near 86,065. Should buyers regain control at this level, a subsequent rally could push prices beyond 127,605. Technical signals, including a rebound from both the lower channel boundary and the RSI support line, indicate that bitcoin remains on course for further growth. However, a failure to hold the 86,065 level might lead to a steeper decline, targeting the 75,205 mark.
Bitcoin's price path will largely depend on whether bullish momentum can overcome any short-term corrective pressures, as traders monitor both fundamental and technical indicators.

The upcoming week presents key inflection points for EUR/USD, gold, and bitcoin. The euro faces potential further losses unless it can hold crucial support levels, while gold appears set for continued gains if its bullish channel remains intact. Bitcoin, on the other hand, retains its long-term upward trajectory but must first withstand near-term corrections. Traders will closely watch support and resistance levels across these markets to assess potential reversals and confirm trend continuation.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 27 – 31, 2025

The past week in the financial markets has seen mixed movements across major currency pairs, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. The euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) has been navigating a corrective phase, attempting to regain upward momentum after a brief dip. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) continued its bullish trend but showed signs of a potential short-term correction before further growth. Meanwhile, gold (XAU/USD) remains supported by buyers, consolidating gains with a bullish breakout in sight. As we approach the trading week of January 27–31, 2025, the market is expected to test significant support and resistance levels, with investors closely watching key indicators for directional cues.



EUR/USD

The euro-dollar pair (EUR/USD) ended the previous week near the 1.0486 mark, completing a correction phase while staying within a broader upward movement. Despite this, the pair has exited a descending channel, though moving averages indicate a bearish trend remains in play. Sellers have exerted pressure, signalling a potential continuation of the decline to test the support area around 1.0285. However, a rebound from this level is anticipated, potentially driving the pair upward toward the 1.0985 target in the coming week.
Technical indicators suggest an additional bullish signal, with a possible test of the relative strength indicator (RSI) support line. A breakout above 1.0545 would further confirm this scenario, strengthening the likelihood of continued growth. Conversely, a drop below 0.9935 would invalidate this outlook, suggesting a deeper decline toward 0.9645.

XAU/USD

Gold (XAU/USD) ended the previous week trading near 2,772, maintaining its bullish trajectory within a "Triangle" pattern. Moving averages reflect strong buyer momentum, with a break above key signal lines reinforcing the possibility of further price increases. However, a short-term decline to test the 2,695 support level may occur before the commodity resumes its climb. A rebound from this support could drive gold prices toward a target above 3,085.
Additional support for a bullish outlook includes a bounce from the trend line on the RSI and a rebound from the upper boundary of the "Triangle" pattern. A breakout above 2,805 would further confirm the upward trend. Conversely, a drop below 2,495 would invalidate the bullish scenario, paving the way for a decline toward 2,415.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) concluded last week at 105,361, continuing its advance within a well-established bullish channel. Moving averages confirm an ongoing upward trend, and a break above signal lines indicates sustained buying interest. However, a brief pullback toward the support level at 94,665 may occur before the cryptocurrency resumes its ascent. A successful rebound from this support zone could propel Bitcoin toward a target above 132,405.
Support from technical signals includes a bounce off the lower boundary of the bullish channel and the RSI support line. A breakout above 112,605 would further validate the bullish trend. Should Bitcoin breach the 81,205 level instead, it would suggest a breakdown of support, with potential losses extending to 73,505.

The trading week of January 27–31, 2025, holds potential for significant movements across the forex, cryptocurrency, and commodity markets. The euro-dollar pair could experience a rebound if support near 1.0285 holds, while Bitcoin and gold remain poised for further gains, albeit with possible short-term corrections. Traders should monitor key technical levels closely, as breakouts or breakdowns will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and guiding trading decisions.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 06 – 10, 2025
The past week saw significant movements across major Forex and cryptocurrency pairs, reflecting broader market trends influenced by ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical factors. While the Euro and gold demonstrated correction and consolidation within familiar patterns, bitcoin exhibited strength within its bullish trajectory. The coming week promises to bring further volatility as markets react to evolving economic data and sentiment shifts.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair concluded the week near 1.0282, moving within a well-defined descending channel. Bearish momentum remains dominant, with moving averages confirming a downtrend. Selling pressure is evident as prices have broken below key signal lines, hinting at a potential test of support near 1.0195 in the coming week. Following this decline, an upward rebound is anticipated, potentially propelling the pair toward the 1.0545 level.
Additional confirmation of this rebound could come from a test of the relative strength indicator (RSI) support line, accompanied by price support in the lower channel range. However, a break below 1.0045 would invalidate the bullish outlook, suggesting further declines toward 0.9805. Traders should monitor the pair's behaviour around these critical levels, as a breakout above 1.0545 would signal a resumption of upward momentum and a breach of the descending channel.
XAU/USD (Gold)
Gold closed the previous week with a modest rise, ending near 2645, while continuing to trade within a corrective triangle formation. The overall trend remains bullish, as evidenced by moving averages, which reflect ongoing buyer support. In the short term, a decline toward the 2625 support level may precede an upward rebound, targeting 2975 as a potential high.
The RSI trend line and the lower boundary of the triangle pattern provide additional signals supporting the bullish forecast. A break below 2485 would invalidate this scenario, indicating a continuation of the downtrend toward 2415. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above 2755 would signal the completion of the triangle pattern, paving the way for a sustained move higher toward new highs.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Bitcoin continues to consolidate its position within a bullish channel, closing the week at 97,438. The cryptocurrency's upward momentum is supported by strong buying activity, as prices remain above key moving averages. However, a short-term correction could lead to a test of support near 84,305. From this level, a rebound is likely to propel bitcoin toward the 130,635 mark.
The lower boundary of the bullish channel and the RSI support line provide additional backing for this optimistic outlook. A fall below 80,205, however, would invalidate the bullish scenario and suggest a deeper correction toward 65,605. A breakout above 105,005 would confirm continued bullish momentum and likely attract further buyer interest.
The upcoming trading week presents a mix of potential corrections and trend continuations across Forex and cryptocurrency markets. The EUR/USD pair is poised for a rebound following a test of lower support levels, while gold is expected to sustain its bullish trend within its triangle pattern. Bitcoin remains on a bullish trajectory, with its correction phases offering opportunities for renewed growth. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels for actionable insights and confirmatory signals in a highly dynamic market environment.
NordFX Analytical Group

Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 30, 2024 – January 03, 2025

As the year transitions into its final week, financial markets have displayed a mixture of corrections and sustained trends across key assets. The past week saw steady movements influenced by macroeconomic developments and year-end portfolio adjustments. Looking ahead, the forthcoming week could bring heightened volatility, with traders positioning for the New Year amidst thinner holiday liquidity.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair ended the past week near 1.0419, continuing its trajectory within a descending channel. Technical indicators highlight a bearish sentiment, with moving averages confirming sustained downward pressure. Sellers maintain control, driving the pair to test support near 1.0375. From this level, a potential rebound is anticipated, with targets suggesting a rise towards the 1.0965 region.
A supportive signal for potential recovery comes from the relative strength indicator (RSI), where a bounce near the support line could reinforce upward momentum. Another key factor to watch will be price reactions near 1.0375. However, a decisive break below 1.0175 would negate this bullish outlook, setting the stage for a deeper decline towards 0.9825. Conversely, a breakout above 1.0585 would validate a reversal, potentially lifting EUR/USD above the descending channel.

XAU/USD

Gold (XAU/USD) closed the previous week with gains near the 2617 level, underpinned by an ascending channel that reflects its bullish trend. Buyers remain in control, supported by moving averages and signals of a potential continuation in price growth. In the coming week, a pullback to test support around 2575 is expected before a likely rebound propels Gold towards the 3035 level.
Additional bullish confirmations may arise from RSI trends and a rebound from the lower boundary of the "Triangle" pattern visible in technical analysis. A break below 2495 would invalidate this growth scenario, indicating a more pronounced drop toward 2405. Conversely, a close above 2745 would signify the breakout of the upper boundary of the "Triangle," reaffirming bullish prospects with extended targets beyond 3035.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) finished the week at 94058, moving within a bullish channel while consolidating its recent gains. The cryptocurrency remains in an upward trend, with moving averages signalling robust buyer interest. Resistance near 96265 is a critical level to monitor in the upcoming week. A potential failure to break this level could trigger a decline, with targets below 71405.
Signals supporting bullish continuation include a rebound from the lower boundary of the channel and resistance on the RSI. However, a break below 82405 would confirm a bearish shift, targeting a further decline. On the other hand, if Bitcoin breaks through 110505, it could rally further to reach the 116505 area, underscoring continued investor optimism.

The final week of the year is poised to deliver pivotal movements across Forex and cryptocurrency markets. EUR/USD faces a critical juncture within its descending channel, with room for both rebounds and further declines. Gold continues to shine within its bullish trajectory, eyeing higher levels despite potential short-term pullbacks. Meanwhile, Bitcoin remains volatile but structurally bullish, presenting opportunities for gains if key resistance levels are breached. Market participants should prepare for dynamic trading conditions as the year draws to a close.


NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 09 – 13, 2024

The past week exhibited varying trends across major markets. The euro managed to hold its ground against the dollar, albeit within a persistent long-term descending channel. Gold and bitcoin extended their upward momentum, supported by strong technical indicators. Looking ahead, the EUR/USD pair appears poised to test critical support and resistance levels, gold may encounter a temporary correction before resuming its upward trajectory, and bitcoin shows signs of strength within its established bullish channel. Below is a detailed forecast for the week ahead.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair closed the previous week near 1.0551, reflecting moderate growth while remaining within its long-term descending channel. Although moving averages point to a bearish trend, a potential reversal could emerge from the "Head and Shoulders" pattern taking shape. The pair shows signs of downward pressure from buyers, with prices previously breaking through signal lines. A short-term correction to the 1.0505 support level is expected, followed by a rebound that could push the pair toward the 1.0925 mark. Supporting this view is a test of the RSI's support line, alongside a rebound from the "Neck" line of the reversal model. However, a breakout below 1.0245 would negate the bullish scenario, signalling a continuation of the decline, potentially targeting the 0.9805 level. On the other hand, sustained movement above 1.0695 would confirm further growth, indicating a breakout of the descending channel's upper boundary.

XAU/USD

Gold ended last week near the 2637 level, continuing its progress within a bullish channel. Prices show strength, having breached resistance levels under the influence of buyers. However, the short term may bring a decline toward the 2545 support zone, where a rebound is anticipated. Such a move would pave the way for gold to target the 2965 level in the coming sessions. A supportive signal for further growth is a rebound from the RSI trend line and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Should prices break below the 2435 mark, the bullish outlook would be invalidated, opening the door for further declines to 2365. Conversely, a breakout above 2745 would confirm continued bullish momentum for the metal.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin closed the previous week at 99,301, maintaining its trajectory within a well-defined bullish channel. The asset remains under strong buyer pressure, reflected in its upward movement above key resistance areas. A short-term correction is anticipated, with the price likely to test the 92,505 support level. From there, a rebound could push bitcoin toward a new high at 123,605. Additional bullish confirmation comes from rebounds off the RSI support line and the lower boundary of the bullish channel. A breakdown below 80,505, however, would invalidate this outlook, potentially leading to a deeper decline toward 72,005. On the flip side, a breakout above 106,025 would affirm the bullish case, further strengthening the asset's growth prospects.



The week of December 9–13, 2024, is set to be pivotal for forex and cryptocurrency markets. The EUR/USD pair will likely fluctuate between correction and growth, while gold and bitcoin, despite possible near-term corrections, remain in bullish formations. Traders should monitor critical levels closely to navigate potential opportunities and risks effectively.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 02 – 06, 2024

As November draws to a close and December begins, financial markets remain dynamic, shaped by a mix of geopolitical events, monetary policy updates, and investor sentiment shifts. The Eurozone faces persistent economic challenges, weighing on the euro, while gold continues to shine as a safe haven amidst global uncertainty. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market, led by bitcoin, is riding a wave of optimism as regulatory developments and institutional interest bolster its upward momentum.
Here's a detailed analysis of the key instruments,EUR/USD, BTC/USD, and XAU/USD,as we head into the first trading week of December 2024.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair concluded the previous week at 1.0544, remaining within a long-term descending channel. Indicators, including moving averages, confirm a prevailing bearish trend as prices recently broke below key signal levels. However, the potential for a rebound remains.
Early in the week, the pair is expected to test the support level around 1.0345. If this level holds, the pair may see a recovery, with a potential rise toward the resistance area above 1.0735. Such movement could gain support from technical signals, including a test of the RSI support line or a bounce from the channel's lower boundary. On the downside, a decisive break below the 1.0125 level would invalidate the recovery scenario, opening the door for further declines toward 0.9825.

XAU/USD



Gold closed the week at $2,658, continuing its upward movement within an ascending channel. Indicators such as moving averages confirm the strength of the bullish trend, with prices breaching key resistance levels. Despite the positive outlook, a short-term decline may emerge before further growth.
The price is likely to test the $2,525 support level at the beginning of the week. If this level holds, gold could rebound and climb towards $3,005. Signals from the RSI and a bounce from the ascending channel's lower boundary would further support this movement. Conversely, a drop below $2,445 would undermine the bullish scenario, potentially driving prices toward $2,375.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin ended last week at $97,047, maintaining its upward trajectory within a bullish channel. The cryptocurrency's performance remains underpinned by moving averages and a breakout above key signal areas. While the broader trend is bullish, a short-term correction may precede further gains.
A pullback to the support area near $90,405 could occur early in the week. Following this, bitcoin is expected to resume its ascent, targeting levels above $120,505. Indicators such as a rebound from the bullish channel's lower boundary and RSI trendline support could validate this growth. However, a fall below the $80,505 level would signal a breakdown in the bullish structure and suggest a decline toward $72,665.

The first week of December is set to be a pivotal period for the markets. While EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure, there are opportunities for rebounds if support levels hold. Bitcoin's bullish trend appears intact, though traders should anticipate and prepare for short-term corrections. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, shows strong potential for growth, provided its critical support areas remain unbroken. In light of these dynamics, traders should carefully monitor the markets and adapt their strategies accordingly.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 25 – 29, 2024

As we step into the last week of November, global financial markets are grappling with a mix of challenges and opportunities. Geopolitical developments, including the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are intensifying risk aversion among investors, driving demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. At the same time, market participants are closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve, where speculation about a potential rate cut is gaining traction due to softening inflation and mixed economic data. In Europe, the ECB's cautious approach and persistent economic sluggishness are keeping the euro under pressure, while cryptocurrencies continue to attract attention amid growing institutional interest, even as regulatory uncertainties persist.
Against this backdrop, major trading instruments like EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and BTC/USD are exhibiting distinctive trends. The interplay of macroeconomic forces and technical patterns in these instruments suggests both opportunities and risks for traders in the week ahead. Below is a detailed analysis of their forecasted movements.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair is trading around 1.0400, navigating a broader sideways channel that has dominated its trend in recent months. Despite the current bearish momentum, the pair remains in a state of consolidation, with significant resistance at 1.0685 and support at 1.0345. Moving averages reinforce the bearish sentiment, showing downward pressure as prices have broken below key signal lines. However, a potential rebound from the 1.0345 level could serve as a catalyst for recovery, targeting the upper boundary of the range near 1.0685.
This week's forecast suggests a retest of the 1.0345 support zone, where a rebound is likely. A breakout above 1.0535 would confirm bullish momentum and signal a move towards 1.0685. Conversely, a sustained break below 1.0045 could invalidate this recovery scenario and pave the way for a deeper decline towards 0.9865. Technical indicators, including the relative strength index (RSI), provide additional signals, with a rebound from oversold levels potentially supporting the upside case.

XAU/USD

Gold prices remain robust, currently trading near $2,700 per ounce, underpinned by heightened geopolitical tensions and speculation about a softer U.S. monetary policy. The precious metal has been moving within a strong bullish channel, with prices breaking above the area between key signal lines on moving averages, signalling robust demand. While the long-term trend points to continued upward movement, a short-term corrective pullback toward the $2,485 support level may occur before another leg higher.
The forecast for the week suggests that gold will test $2,485, followed by a rebound targeting $3,125. The RSI indicator and the bullish channel's lower boundary are expected to act as key support zones. However, a break below $2,435 would invalidate the bullish scenario, indicating a shift in momentum and opening the door for further declines to $2,345. A confirmed breakout above $2,755 would reinforce bullish sentiment and signal a resumption of the upward trend.

BTC/USD



Bitcoin continues its impressive rally, closing last week near $98,790 and maintaining its trajectory within a well-defined ascending channel. The cryptocurrency is benefiting from increased demand as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency instability. Moving averages indicate a sustained bullish trend, though short-term corrections are likely as the asset consolidates its recent gains.
This week, a pullback toward $91,305 is expected, followed by a potential bounce targeting $116,505. A breakout above the resistance level of $102,505 would confirm the bullish continuation, while a drop below $80,505 would invalidate this outlook and signal a deeper correction towards $72,605. Technical indicators, such as RSI, show potential support for an upward rebound, but traders should remain vigilant for sudden shifts, which are typical in the cryptocurrency market.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 18 – 22, 2024

The financial markets enter the week of November 18–22, 2024, amid significant economic and political developments shaping currency, commodity, and cryptocurrency movements. The recent re-election of Donald Trump has boosted market confidence in a pro-business and deregulation-focused administration, strengthening the US dollar. This has been further supported by robust US economic data, including low unemployment and resilient consumer spending, which reinforce expectations of continued monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Globally, the eurozone remains under pressure due to sluggish growth and political uncertainties, which weigh on the euro. Gold prices are responding to the dollar's strength, as investors weigh the prospects of higher interest rates against the metal's role as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, bitcoin is seeing record highs, driven by optimism about regulatory clarity and increased institutional adoption. These factors will be key drivers of market dynamics for EUR/USD, XAU/USD, and BTC/USD in the upcoming week.

EUR/USD



The EUR/USD pair is expected to test the support area near 1.0450, with a potential rebound signalling further growth towards the target level of 1.0875. An additional signal supporting this bullish scenario is a test of the support line on the RSI indicator.
The key level to watch for invalidating this growth outlook is 1.0365. A breakout below this level would indicate further bearish momentum, with the pair likely continuing to decline towards the target of 0.9945. Conversely, confirmation of sustained growth would require a breakout above the 1.0665 level, signalling a breach of the descending channel and opening the path for further upward movement.
This outlook considers the interplay of technical signals and critical support and resistance levels, which traders should monitor closely in the coming week.

XAU/USD

Gold ended the week near 2568, with XAU/USD moving within a bullish channel. Moving averages suggest a bullish trend, with prices testing key signal lines, indicating buyer pressure and potential growth. A decline towards the 2455 support level is expected, followed by a rebound targeting 2675.
A rebound from the RSI support line and the lower border of the bullish channel supports the growth scenario. However, a breakout below 2385 would invalidate this outlook, signalling a decline towards 2315. Confirmation of continued growth would require a breakout above 2625, indicating further bullish momentum.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) closed the week at 89,337, moving within a bullish channel that suggests a continued upward trend. The moving averages and recent upward breakout through signal lines support this bullish momentum. However, a short-term correction towards the 76,505 support level is possible, from which a rebound could lead to further gains, targeting levels above 112,605.
Key signals for the week include a bounce from the bullish channel's lower boundary and the RSI support line. A drop below 73,605 would invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially leading to a decline towards 65,605. Conversely, a breakout above 99,905 would confirm further upward movement in line with the channel's width.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 04 – 08, 2024

In October 2024, the U.S. labor market saw limited movement, with total nonfarm payroll employment rising by only 12,000 jobs, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Health care and government sectors saw continued job growth, while temporary help services and manufacturing experienced declines, the latter impacted by strike activity. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which caused significant damage and evacuations in the southeastern U.S., may have influenced employment figures and data collection, potentially skewing labor data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted, however, that it cannot quantify the hurricanes' impact on employment shifts. Moreover, the storms did not visibly affect the unemployment rate. After the data release, the dollar fell sharply by 0.35%, while stock indices and cryptocurrencies saw a recovery. Markets are now anticipating rate cuts in 2025, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction at the November and December Federal Reserve meetings.
The U.S. presidential election on November 5th will be a major focal point for the markets next week, likely driving significant volatility around that date.

EUR/USD

The Euro saw a slight increase over the week, though it appears to be struggling to hold onto those gains. Currently, the market seems likely to remain volatile and move sideways, with prices hovering around the 50-Week EMA.
If the price breaks above the top of previous week's candlestick, it could face resistance at the 1.10 level. Conversely, the 1.0750 level offers strong support and is worth monitoring closely. Should the price fall below this point, it may target the 1.05 level, which has consistently served as a major support zone over the past few years. Overall, the market appears to lack clear direction at this stage.



XAU/USD

Escalating geopolitical tensions have led investors to turn to safe-haven assets like gold, fueled by heightened risk aversion and worries about global market stability. Gold has repeatedly set new records this year, climbing over 30% amid expectations of further central bank rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. According to LSEG data, this marks its strongest annual growth since 1979.
Gold had a bullish run past week, but momentum appears to be slowing. The weekly candlestick reflects some hesitation, indicating that a phase of profit-taking might be near. The $2800 mark, a significant psychological level, has drawn substantial market interest. Traders should monitor any pullbacks closely, as these may present buying opportunities, particularly around the $2600 level.

BTC/USD

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a gain of over 2% this week until Friday, with a strong start bringing it close to a new all-time high, followed by a notable decline as signs of profit-taking emerged.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin might experience a pullback in the coming days ahead of the U.S. presidential election, a critical event that could shape the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies. The continuation of Bitcoin's recent rally in the short term is closely tied to the election results, with many traders believing that a victory for former President Donald Trump could result in more favorable regulatory conditions for the crypto market.
If BTC continues its decline and closes below the $69,500 mark, it could potentially fall over 5% to test the next key support at $66,000, aligning closely with the breakout point of the downward-sloping parallel channel pattern near $65,800 on the weekly chart. However, if Bitcoin stays above $69,500, it may attempt to retest and possibly break through its all-time high of $73,777.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for October 14 – 18, 2024

EUR/USD: Doves Outplay Hawks, Score 76:24

● Last week, four key events attracted the attention of the markets. The week began on Monday, 7th October, with the release of eurozone retail sales data. According to the statistics, retail sales in August grew by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.8% year-on-year, which was almost in line with forecasts. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected growth of 0.2% (m/m) and 1.0% (y/y).
● The next significant event was the release of the minutes from the September FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, 9th October. This 13-page document provided a detailed assessment of the economic situation and the opinions of Committee members on the prospects for monetary policy. The Fed downgraded its forecast for US economic growth in 2024 from 2.1% to 2.0%, while keeping the 2025 estimate unchanged at 2.0%. The inflation forecast for the current year was lowered from 2.6% to 2.3%, and for the following year, from 2.3% to 2.1%.
According to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement, the regulator's baseline scenario assumes further monetary policy easing. However, he noted that the Fed is in no hurry to act. The minutes revealed that Committee members are divided into two camps regarding the expected pace and magnitude of the key interest rate cuts. Some believe that it is essential to avoid a rate reduction that is either too late or insufficient, citing risks to the labour market. Others argue that a rate cut that is too swift or too large could halt the progress made in the fight against inflation or even lead to its resurgence.
● The next meeting of the US regulator will take place on 6-7th November. Market participants expect to see two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 76% probability that the first of these cuts will occur next month, while the probability that the rate will remain unchanged is estimated at around 24%. Against this backdrop, the major US stock indices rallied, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reaching record closing levels.
● The third event took place on Thursday, 10th October, with the release of US inflation data. According to the US Department of Labour, while consumer prices in September slightly exceeded forecasts, annual inflation reached its lowest level since February 2021.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 0.2% month-on-month, despite forecasts of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the CPI was 2.4% in September, which was higher than the forecast of 2.3% but lower than the previous value of 2.5%. Core inflation (Core CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose to 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding both the forecast and expectations of 3.2%.
These figures reinforced investors' expectations that the US Federal Reserve would proceed with another rate cut in November. The EUR/USD pair reacted to the inflation data with volatility, fluctuating within a 50-point range (1.0904-1.0954), but by the start of Friday, it had returned to where it had been at the beginning of Thursday – in the middle of the range around 1.0935.
● It is worth recalling that on 18th September, the Federal Reserve lowered the key interest rate for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and by 50 basis points at once. According to Jerome Powell, this sharp move was necessary to protect the labour market. However, data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, released on 4th October, showed the largest increase in new jobs in six months and a decrease in unemployment. The number of new jobs in the non-farm sector (NFP) rose by 254K, following an increase of 159K in August, and far exceeded market expectations of 140K. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.2%. According to analysts, this confirmed the resilience of the economy, and the expectation of a gradual rate cut this year. 
● The final event of the week, which had the potential to influence the dynamics of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and consequently EUR/USD quotes, was the release of another important inflation indicator on Friday, 11th October – the US Producer Price Index (PPI). According to the report from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the PPI rose by 1.8% year-on-year in September. This followed an increase of 1.9% in August and exceeded market expectations of 1.6%. The core PPI, on a yearly basis, grew by 2.8% (forecast 2.7%). On a monthly basis, the PPI remained unchanged, while the core index rose by 0.2%.
● Despite the fact that producer price inflation exceeded forecasts, the market barely reacted to these figures. As a result, the week's final note was struck at the same level, 1.0935. Most analysts (70%) predict a decline in the EUR/USD pair ahead of the ECB meeting. The remaining 30% have taken a neutral stance. Indicators on D1 mostly align with the analysts' outlook. All oscillators are in red, though a third of them signal the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, 75% point south, while 25% point north.
The nearest support for the pair is in the 1.0890-1.0905 zone, followed by 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0725, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0520-1.0565, and 1.0450-1.0465. Resistance zones are located around 1.0990-1.1010, then 1.1045, 1.1100, 1.1155, 1.1185-1.1210, 1.1275, 1.1385, 1.1485-1.1505, 1.1670-1.1690, and 1.1875-1.1905.
● The most interesting day next week is expected to be Thursday, 17th October. On this day, eurozone consumer inflation (CPI) data will be released, followed by a meeting of the European Central Bank. Some experts anticipate that the ECB might opt for another 25 basis point cut in the key interest rate. In addition to this decision, the ECB's leadership comments on monetary policy will undoubtedly attract significant interest. Moreover, on 17th October, data on US retail sales and initial jobless claims will also be released.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Crypto Industry's War with the SEC Enters a 'Hot' Phase



● We will begin our review of the crypto industry by picking up where we left off last time—with the "information bomb" that was expected to explode on 8-9th October. The American television channel HBO had promised to reveal the real identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. And indeed, they did name someone, but few believed it. According to the authors of the documentary Electronic Money: The Mystery of Bitcoin, the pseudonym Nakamoto allegedly belonged to 39-year-old Canadian Peter Todd. Todd was indeed one of the early developers of Bitcoin Core, but he was never among the main suspects thought to be Nakamoto.
The filmmakers presented several arguments, including the use of British/Canadian spelling in Nakamoto's writings and a correlation between the timing of Todd's educational schedule and Nakamoto's posts. The key "evidence" was a message posted on the Bitcoin forum in 2010, supposedly left by Todd under Nakamoto's name. However, these arguments failed to convince most viewers. Ki Newbie trader Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, even called the documentary "disgusting" and expressed astonishment at how misguided the conclusions were.
● Another, more tangible, sensation could emerge from the latest round in the ongoing battle between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and representatives of the crypto industry. Speaking at New York University's School of Law, SEC Chair Gary Gensler stated that cryptocurrencies are unlikely to ever be widely used as a payment method and will continue to be viewed primarily as a store of value. Gensler also praised his agency's approach to enforcing regulations on crypto companies through legal action. "Sometimes we need to take enforcement actions to bring people back to the right side," he said.
Under Gensler's leadership, the SEC has filed numerous lawsuits against crypto companies for violating securities laws. Defendants include major centralized exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken, as well as the fintech company Ripple, the issuer of the XRP token. The SEC, however, has refused to establish clearer regulatory guidelines or criteria for determining whether a cryptocurrency falls into one of two categories: a security or a commodity. In assessing the future of cryptocurrencies, Gensler struck a blow to the digital industry by citing Gresham's Law: "Bad money drives out good."
● It's certainly disheartening when cryptocurrencies are labelled as "the worst," and crypto advocates are described as being on "the wrong side." However, in the US, it's not only authorities that can file lawsuits against commercial organisations— the reverse is also possible. And they can even call the SEC an "illegal entity." In a bold move, the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com has filed a lawsuit against the SEC, accusing the agency of overstepping its authority in regulating the crypto industry. This was announced by the co-founder and CEO of the platform, Kris Marszalek.
"This unprecedented action by our company against a federal agency is a justified response to the SEC's enforcement measures, which have harmed more than 50 million American cryptocurrency holders," he wrote on his social media page. According to Marszalek, the Commission has overreached its legal boundaries and now operates as an unlawful entity, labelling almost all cryptocurrencies as securities. The Crypto.com CEO also promised that the company would use "all available regulatory tools" to bring clarity to the industry and protect the future of the crypto sector in the US through legal means.
● Continuing with the topic of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), here's another development. Following in the footsteps of Bitwise, the crypto investment firm Canary Capital has filed an application with the SEC to launch a spot XRP-ETF based on Ripple. The idea behind this exchange-traded fund is to give investors access to one of the largest altcoins through a traditional brokerage account, without the risks associated with directly buying and storing cryptocurrency. And this is good news.
The application was submitted using Form S-1, which means there are no specific deadlines by which the regulator must make a decision. And that's the bad news: knowing Gary Gensler's stance, the review process could range from "just a long time" to "endlessly long." Additionally, a second mandatory step in launching the ETF is the submission of another application—this time by the stock exchange where the new product will be listed. As of now, the SEC has not received such a filing from any exchange.
● The outcome of the US presidential elections could significantly impact the crypto industry. Geoff Kendrick, Head of Crypto Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that if Donald Trump is elected, the price of bitcoin could triple by the end of 2025, and Solana could rise fivefold. Kendrick believes that the Trump administration would be more favourable towards the Solana ecosystem compared to a Harris administration. Therefore, if Kamala Harris becomes the occupant of the White House, bitcoin is expected to outpace Ethereum in growth, while Ethereum would surpass Solana and reach $7,000. Kendrick also suggests that bitcoin could rise to $200,000 by the end of 2025, regardless of the election results on 5th November.
● Currently, both bitcoin and Ethereum are under pressure. Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, faces speculation about a potential sale of a large number of tokens held by the US government, although no decision has been made yet. According to analysts at QCP Capital, the rising demand for meme coins is also hindering BTC's growth. As for Ethereum, its price could be negatively impacted by the Chinese authorities, who are reportedly preparing to sell $1.3 billion worth of Ethereum seized from employees of the cryptocurrency company PlusToken.
● At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, 10th October, the BTC/USD pair is trading around $63,080, the ETH/USD pair at $2,460, and SOL/USD at $146.0. The total cryptocurrency market capitalisation has remained relatively unchanged, standing at $2.20 trillion (compared to $2.17 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 41 to 32 points, placing it in the Fear zone.
● And finally, an event that could turn into another global sensation. Renowned economist Tyler Cowen has nominated Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin for the Nobel Prize in Economics. This initiative was supported by another prominent expert, Professor Alexander Tabarrok. Both economists praised Buterin for his significant contributions to the monetary economics of cryptocurrencies, emphasising that his work has far surpassed that of any other economist. According to Tyler, Vitalik built the brilliant Ethereum platform and created a digital currency that challenges Mises' Regression Theorem. This theorem asserts that the value of money can be traced back ("regressed") to the value of the goods and services it represents.
Cowen and his colleague also commended Buterin's continued efforts to develop the Ethereum network and highlighted that he would make an excellent speaker at the Nobel Prize ceremony (if he is approved), noting his politeness and good communication skills.
For reference: Vitalik Buterin was born near Moscow in 1994, meaning he is currently 30 years old. At the age of 6, he moved with his parents from Russia to Canada. He is the co-founder and former editor of *Bitcoin Magazine* and the co-founder of the Ethereum project, for which he won the World Technology Award in 2014, beating out Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and other contenders. In 2021, Buterin became the Newbie traderest cryptocurrency billionaire in the world. American *Forbes* estimated Buterin's net worth at $1.3 billion.


NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.