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Topic Summary

Posted by: EnLong12
« on: February 12, 2019, 06:04:17 AM »

美跨国企业游说影响力江河日下

更新于2019年2月7日 05:26卢斯:在特朗普上任前,美国最强大的商业游说团体的影响力就已经下滑了,特朗普只不过让这种感觉具体化了。



过去人们常说,对通用汽车(General Motors)有利的,就是对美国有利的。唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)政府认为,对苹果(Apple)不利的,就是对中国不利的。而这也就意味着对美国有利。当苹果的iPhone销量低于预期时,就像苹果年初宣布的那样,中国也会跟着吃苦头。或者,理论上是这样的。但实际上,中国人已经转向了由本国电信设备公司华为(Huawei)生产的智能手机,这可能有利于中国。但这不是重点。对美国一些大品牌不利的,显然对这位美国总统有利。对于特朗普与美国总统正常的行为举止距离有多远,怎么说都不为过。不过,在特朗普上任前,美国最强大的商业游说团体的影响力就已经下滑了。他只不过让这种感觉具体化了。像美国商会(US Chamber of Commerce)和商业圆桌会议(Business Roundtable)这样的组织,对特朗普打击移民、发动关税战以及让政府关门的做法怨声载道。白宫对此并不关心。他们之间是浮士德式交易(Faustian bargain)。去年,商界享受了特朗普削减企业税——以及放松监管——带来的好处。他们必须忍受他做的其他事。这并不是说特朗普缺少商界朋友。但他们与传统的商人不同。几乎没人经营过上市公司。他们往往是房地产开发商、私人股本亿万富翁、赌场巨头和家族企业的负责人。他们是各种不同领域的高管。他们所在的很多公司都在中美洲,纯粹迎合本地市场。他们几乎不受特朗普发动的关税战的影响。他们也不担心公共关系。当美国某个州禁止变性人使用与出生性别不符的洗手间、或者对同性恋权益多加限制时,苹果和耐克(Nike)可能会发声反对。为了维护利益攸关者的声誉,他们必须这样做。美国跨国企业仍然是坚定的国际主义者。特朗普的朋友是民族主义-民粹主义者。推动多元化和包容性不是他们的义务。如今,越来越多的美国资本在流向私人公司。过去20年,美国上市公司的数量几乎减少了一半。首次公开发行(IPO)不再是私人股本投资的公司显而易见的路径。私人股本公司要么延长持股时间,要么把股权出售给其他私人集团。与此同时,巨型基金的兴起为上市公司私有化提供了条件。亚马逊(Amazon)或许只有在当初上市,市值才能达到曾在去年短暂触及的1万亿美元的水平。优步(Uber)或WeWork是否必须效仿亚马逊,不再是显而易见的事。在过去的8年中,每年从美国股市退市的权益金额都超过了当年筹集的权益金额——这一趋势被称为“去股权化”。因此,我们对美国企业思维模式的了解不如以前。私人公司面临的披露要求要少得多。因为不需要撰写季度盈利报告,所以很多私人公司都是更稳定的雇主。人们会倾向于认为上市公司对社会更负责任。但公众似乎并不总是这样认为。去年,哈雷戴维森(Harley-Davidson)对特朗普的关税举措做出反应,把生产迁移至海外,当时该公司在威斯康星州的很多员工都指责管理层。特朗普为美国而战。高管们却只考虑他们的盈利。特朗普正在把这种紧张关系推向极限。一方面是股东价值,它要求公司在效率最高的地方生产产品——就苹果而言,这意味着除美国以外的任何地方。这些集团高举着全球化的旗帜。另一方面是秉持爱国主义的美国企业——在中西部酿造啤酒、或在北卡罗来纳州生产钢铁——他们高举着星条旗。未来几周,特朗普可能会升级与中国的贸易战。他的目标是迫使制造业回流,比如苹果把iPhone的生产迁回国内。对标普500指数(S&P 500)的成份股公司——这些公司几乎一半的收入来自海外——造成打击,似乎是特朗普愿意付出的代价。美国商会可能会多有抱怨。但美国全国制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers)和全美独立企业联盟(National Federation of Independent Businesses)会拍手称快。与此同时,特朗普的朋友们顺风顺水。他的内阁再尽心不过了。前煤炭业说客安德鲁•惠勒(Andrew Wheeler)现在掌管着美国环境保护局(Environmental Protection Agency)。美国内政部(Department of the Interior)将由前石油业说客戴维•伯恩哈特(David Bernhardt)掌管。美国卫生与公众服务部(Department of Health and Human Services)由前制药业说客亚历克斯•阿扎尔(Alex Azar)执掌。与此同时,家族创建的世界摔跤娱乐公司(WWE)的前掌门人琳达•麦克马洪(Linda McMahon),负责美国小企业管理局(Small Business Administration)。美国最大的私人企业之一安利(Amway)前首席执行官的妻子贝齐•德沃斯(Betsy DeVos)成为了美国教育部(Department of Education)的负责人。每一个人都来自与高盛(Goldman Sachs)截然不同的商业世界。讽刺的是,特朗普仍把道琼斯指数(Dow Jones index)视为成功的晴雨表。事实上,它对于美国商业面貌的反映远不如过去。如果美国与中国的紧张关系再次恶化,股市无疑将下跌。但如今,美国商界有许多不同的声音。至于特朗普会听取谁的意见,猜对了也没有奖励。译者/马柯斯
 

Source: 美跨国企业游说影响力江河日下

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