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Topic Summary

Posted by: XuJieTang
« on: September 13, 2024, 12:13:01 AM »

油价下跌与欧佩克下调全球需求增长预期

Array石油输出国组织(欧佩克)周二下调了对2024年全球石油需求增长的预测,与今年年初以来收到的数据一致,并第二次下调了对明年的预期。与此同时,全球市场油价下跌,触及2021年以来的最低水平。
欧佩克在月度报告中表示,2024年全球石油需求将增加203万桶/日,低于上个月预测的211万桶/日。
对于 2024 年原油需求增长的强度,石油预测发布者之间的分歧比平常更大,部分原因是围绕中国和世界向清洁燃料转型的步伐存在分歧。
尽管减产,欧佩克的预期仍是石油行业预期中最高的。
欧佩克在报告中表示,“展望未来,中国经济增长预计仍将得到良好支撑。”
欧佩克在报告中并补充说,“然而,房地产行业的逆风以及天然气动力卡车和电动汽车的日益普及,可能会影响未来的柴油和汽油需求。”
欧佩克还将2025年全球需求增长预期从178万桶/日下调至174万桶/日。
美国能源信息署预计将发布短期能源预测,其中包括对全球市场和美国原油产量的预测。
布伦特原油在今天的交易中跌至 2021 年以来的最低水平,接近每桶 71 美元(路透)
价格下跌
与此同时,周二原油价格下跌至 2021 年以来的最低水平。全球基准布伦特原油在周一突破了连续 6 个交易日的跌势后,逼近每桶 71 美元。
由于对主要经济体需求受限和供应充足的担忧日益加剧,布伦特原油周五收于 2021 年以来的最低水平。
11 月交割的布伦特原油期货下跌 1.2%,至每桶 70.98 美元,10 月份交割的西德克萨斯中质原油价格下跌 1.2%,至每桶 67.88 美元。
中国需求疲软和全球供应过剩风险支撑了油价下跌,这些风险继续给市场带来压力。
中国周一公布的数据显示,8月份中国消费者通胀加速至半年来最快,但内需依然脆弱,生产者价格通缩进一步恶化。
周日,摩根士丹利分析师在一份报告中表示,“欧佩克+宣布将计划增产的开始时间推迟两个月至11月底,这表明该生产国集团仍将重点放在平衡市场上。”
上周四,欧佩克+在一份声明中宣布,将原定于本月底增加石油产量的行动再推迟两个月,直至11月底。
来源 : 通讯社

Source: 油价下跌与欧佩克下调全球需求增长预期

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