Posted by: Stan NordFX
« on: June 01, 2024, 02:09:49 PM »USD/JPY: A Very Calm Week
The past week was surprisingly calm for the yen. USD/JPY moved within a super-narrow sideways channel of 156.60-157.00 for the first half of the week, but then, amid US data and Japanese macro statistics, the trading range expanded slightly to 156.36-157.70. Compared to the price swings at the end of April and early May, it's hard to believe this is the same currency pair. Interestingly, Japanese financial authorities have not officially confirmed whether they conducted intensive yen purchases on 29 April and 1 May to support its exchange rate. However, Bloomberg reports that comparing deposits at the Bank of Japan suggests that around ¥9.4 trillion ($60 billion) might have been spent on these currency interventions, a new monthly record for such financial operations.
However, if this $60 billion helped, it was only slightly – the dollar has already recovered half of its losses. Since interest rates in the US and Europe have not yet decreased, and the yen rate remains extremely low at 0.1%, officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are trying to buy time until this gap starts to narrow. Comments from BoJ board member Seiji Adachi, who stated on 30 May that the Japanese central bank leaders could raise the interest rate, provided some support for the yen. However, the question of when this might happen remains open, and officials are reluctant to answer. In his traditional speech on Friday, 31 May, Japan's Minister of Finance, Shunichi Suzuki, reiterated that exchange rates should reflect fundamental indicators and that he would respond appropriately to excessive movements.
On Friday, 31 May, a block of important macroeconomic statistics on the state of the Japanese economy was released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo showed that inflation rose to 2.2% y/y in May. In April, this figure was at 1.8%, matching a 26-month low. Core inflation in Tokyo also rose to 1.9% from 1.6% y/y, and the CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices increased from 1.8% to 2.2% y/y. (It should be noted that inflation in Tokyo is usually higher than the nationwide figures, which are published three weeks later. Therefore, the Tokyo CPI is a preliminary but not final indicator of inflation dynamics at the national level.)
The current rise in inflation could increase confidence in future BoJ monetary policy tightening. However, the fear of low inflation and a sharp yen appreciation deters the BoJ from raising the interest rate and narrowing the gap with other major global currencies' rates. A strong yen would harm national exporters. The decline in industrial production, which fell by -0.1% in April both month-on-month and year-on-year, does not encourage borrowing costs to rise.
The last note of the week for USD/JPY was struck at 157.25. United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts believe that in the next 1-3 weeks, "the dollar has the potential for growth, but given the weak upward momentum, any advancement is likely to be slow. The 157.50 level might be difficult to overcome, and resistance at 158.00 is unlikely to be reached in the near future."
Speaking of the average forecast of experts, only 20% indicate a southward direction, while the remaining 80% adopt a neutral position and look east. Technical analysis tools show no such doubts or disagreements. Thus, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, with 15% already in the overbought zone. It should be noted that if the green/north color of the indicators for the euro and the British pound indicates their strengthening, in the case of the yen, it conversely indicates its weakening. Therefore, traders may find it interesting to pay attention to the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs, whose dynamics have been impressive lately.
The nearest support level is in the area of 156.25-156.60, followed by zones and levels at 155.50-155.90, 153.10-153.60, 151.85-152.35, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50. The nearest resistance is in the 157.40 zone, followed by 157.70-158.00, 158.60, and 160.00-160.20.
No significant events or publications regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected next week.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bullish and Bearish Ethereum Prospects
For the second week, market participants' attention has been focused on the main altcoin. On 23 May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 19b-4 applications from eight issuers of spot exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum. (According to JP Morgan experts, this was dictated not by a desire to support digital assets but by a political decision aimed at supporting Joe Biden ahead of the US presidential elections.) Whatever the true reason for this regulatory move, everyone is now interested in where Ethereum prices will go.
The newborn ETH-ETFs can only start trading after the SEC approves the S-1 applications. According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, this could take "weeks or months," although it is very likely to happen in mid-June. According to DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur Cheong, Ethereum's price could rise to $4,500 even before trading begins. CCData analysts believe that within 100 days of the launch of ETH-ETFs, the price could reach $5,000 per coin. This forecast is based on linear regression and the price statistics of bitcoin after the launch of spot BTC-ETFs. CCData's analysis assumes that inflows into similar Ethereum funds will be at least 50% of inflows into Bitcoin-ETFs, which means about $3.9 billion over a 100-day period.
Popular analyst Lark Davis has forecasted future growth for bitcoin to $150,000 and Ethereum to $15,000, explaining such a sharp price increase by the emerging market dynamics. The main reason for growth, Davis also cites spot BTC-ETFs, to which ETH-ETFs will now join. This will further fuel the cryptocurrency market's enthusiasm. Currently, spot BTC-ETFs hold 1,002,343 coins (≈ $68 billion), which is about 5% of the circulating supply of the flagship asset. Davis believes this impressive figure clearly indicates growing recognition of cryptocurrency and interest from institutional investors, especially from the US.
Strike CEO Jack Mallers predicts that during the ongoing bull rally, bitcoin could reach $250,000 and possibly rise in price to $1 million. On a podcast with Pomp Investments founder Anthony Pompliano, Mallers explained his bold forecast by stating that bitcoin is still at an early stage of development. According to him, the bond market is currently facing problems, so central banks may inject a significant amount of liquidity into the financial system to stabilize it. This liquidity influx will trigger an increase in the value of risky assets, including the leading cryptocurrency.
Jack Mallers disagrees with the notion that bitcoin is a bubble or a tool for speculation. The asset is becoming increasingly popular among financial giants on Wall Street, and its limited supply of 21 million coins makes BTC highly resistant to inflation, unlike fiat currencies and gold. "Bitcoin can be called the hardest form of money – thanks to the fixed issuance schedule and halvings every four years. The release rate of new coins gradually decreases, thereby increasing bitcoin's long-term value," argued the Strike CEO.
Analysts from financial investment company Motley Fool also target a six-figure number. They suggested that bitcoin's rate could rise to $400,000 and possibly even reach $1 million. The reason, which has been mentioned many times, is the influx of money from institutional investors through spot ETFs. Motley Fool analysts noted that more and more pension funds and hedge funds, managing multi-billion dollar sums, are entering the bitcoin market. Thanks to cryptocurrency ETFs, they can easily include bitcoin (and soon Ethereum) in their investment portfolios.
According to analysts, around 700 investment companies have already invested in such funds. Nevertheless, the share of institutional investors in bitcoin-ETFs is currently only about 10% of the total. Motley Fool estimates that if financial institutions invest about 5% of their assets in bitcoin, the market capitalization of the first cryptocurrency could exceed $7 trillion, which explains its forecasted rate of $400,000.
Considerably less optimism was heard in the forecast of Bloomberg senior analyst Mike McGlone. According to him, bitcoin's volatility leaves it trailing gold and the US dollar in investment appeal. Furthermore, he believes that stocks will soon crash amid the expected recession, but BTC will suffer even more than the stock market. McGlone emphasized that the Tether (USDT) stablecoin, pegged to the US dollar, typically trades twice as much per day as bitcoin. "I can access the US dollar anywhere in the world from my phone using Tether. Tether is the number one trading token. It's the number one cryptocurrency for trading. It's the dollar. The whole world has moved to the dollar. Why? Because it's the least bad of all fiat currencies," the Bloomberg expert stated.
While Mike McGlone merely downgraded bitcoin's attractiveness, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson simply buried it. He equated bitcoin to a religion and stated that the industry has outgrown its dependence on it. According to Hoskinson, "the industry no longer needs bitcoin to survive." He pointed out critical threats to the leading cryptocurrency, including insufficient adaptability and dependence on the Proof-of-Work algorithm.
Franklin Templeton analysts, on the contrary, consider L2 protocols, along with Ordinals, Runes, and DeFi primitives, as one of the main drivers of bitcoin's innovation revival. Strike CEO Jack Mallers defended the first cryptocurrency. According to him, the Lightning Network, created for instant and cheap transactions, a second-layer solution based on the BTC blockchain, can further increase the demand for the first cryptocurrency. Mallers believes that thanks to this, bitcoin can be used for everyday purchases, such as paying for a cup of coffee. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes called the native token of the Cardano blockchain (ADA) "dog shit" due to its low use in protocols.
As of the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, 31 May, ADA is trading at 0.45 USD per coin, while bitcoin and Ethereum are faring significantly better: BTC/USD is trading at $67,600, and ETH/USD at $3,790. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.53 trillion ($2.55 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remained almost unchanged over 7 days, staying in the Greed zone at 73 points (74 a week ago).
It should be noted that ETH/USD failed to break through the $4,000 resistance this past week. The local maximum was recorded on Monday, 27 May, at $3,974. The lack of an immediate pump is explained by the fact that everyone who wanted to buy Ethereum in anticipation of the SEC's historic decision already did so. Meanwhile, according to some analysts, there is a high probability that immediately after the launch of the long-awaited spot exchange funds, Ethereum will enter a deep drawdown, similar to what happened in January with bitcoin. Then, over 12 days, it fell by 21%.
One of the key reasons for BTC's drawdown at that time was the unlocking of GBTC fund assets from Grayscale, which was converted into a spot fund from a trust. It began losing investments daily at a rate of $500 million. It is possible that something similar could happen with Ethereum, where Grayscale's ETHE fund holds $11 billion worth of ETH. As soon as this fund is converted into a spot fund and its assets are unlocked, short-term investors might start taking profits, potentially causing ETH/USD to fall to the strong support zone of $2,900-3,200.
Pessimists among bearish factors also cite the uncertain legal status of the altcoin, as the SEC has not yet clearly defined whether ETH is a commodity or a security. Additionally, the regulator has many complaints about the staking program.
Staking is a way to earn cryptocurrency by "locking" a certain amount of coins in a wallet on the Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithm to support the network. In return, the user receives rewards in the form of additional coins. According to Wall Street legend Peter Brandt, "the biggest disasters in the cryptocurrency sphere that are yet to happen will be related to staking." The expert noted that such assets as Ethereum are often rented out to earn such income, often in the form of interest, which strongly reminds him of collapsed financial pyramids. As staking becomes more widespread, Brandt warned, it could attract increased attention from central banks, treasuries, and other authorities. This could lead to tighter regulation, significantly altering the crypto space and potentially resulting in the cessation of staking and bankruptcies for those involved.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
The past week was surprisingly calm for the yen. USD/JPY moved within a super-narrow sideways channel of 156.60-157.00 for the first half of the week, but then, amid US data and Japanese macro statistics, the trading range expanded slightly to 156.36-157.70. Compared to the price swings at the end of April and early May, it's hard to believe this is the same currency pair. Interestingly, Japanese financial authorities have not officially confirmed whether they conducted intensive yen purchases on 29 April and 1 May to support its exchange rate. However, Bloomberg reports that comparing deposits at the Bank of Japan suggests that around ¥9.4 trillion ($60 billion) might have been spent on these currency interventions, a new monthly record for such financial operations.
However, if this $60 billion helped, it was only slightly – the dollar has already recovered half of its losses. Since interest rates in the US and Europe have not yet decreased, and the yen rate remains extremely low at 0.1%, officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are trying to buy time until this gap starts to narrow. Comments from BoJ board member Seiji Adachi, who stated on 30 May that the Japanese central bank leaders could raise the interest rate, provided some support for the yen. However, the question of when this might happen remains open, and officials are reluctant to answer. In his traditional speech on Friday, 31 May, Japan's Minister of Finance, Shunichi Suzuki, reiterated that exchange rates should reflect fundamental indicators and that he would respond appropriately to excessive movements.
On Friday, 31 May, a block of important macroeconomic statistics on the state of the Japanese economy was released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo showed that inflation rose to 2.2% y/y in May. In April, this figure was at 1.8%, matching a 26-month low. Core inflation in Tokyo also rose to 1.9% from 1.6% y/y, and the CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices increased from 1.8% to 2.2% y/y. (It should be noted that inflation in Tokyo is usually higher than the nationwide figures, which are published three weeks later. Therefore, the Tokyo CPI is a preliminary but not final indicator of inflation dynamics at the national level.)
The current rise in inflation could increase confidence in future BoJ monetary policy tightening. However, the fear of low inflation and a sharp yen appreciation deters the BoJ from raising the interest rate and narrowing the gap with other major global currencies' rates. A strong yen would harm national exporters. The decline in industrial production, which fell by -0.1% in April both month-on-month and year-on-year, does not encourage borrowing costs to rise.
The last note of the week for USD/JPY was struck at 157.25. United Overseas Bank (UOB) analysts believe that in the next 1-3 weeks, "the dollar has the potential for growth, but given the weak upward momentum, any advancement is likely to be slow. The 157.50 level might be difficult to overcome, and resistance at 158.00 is unlikely to be reached in the near future."
Speaking of the average forecast of experts, only 20% indicate a southward direction, while the remaining 80% adopt a neutral position and look east. Technical analysis tools show no such doubts or disagreements. Thus, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 point north, with 15% already in the overbought zone. It should be noted that if the green/north color of the indicators for the euro and the British pound indicates their strengthening, in the case of the yen, it conversely indicates its weakening. Therefore, traders may find it interesting to pay attention to the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY pairs, whose dynamics have been impressive lately.
The nearest support level is in the area of 156.25-156.60, followed by zones and levels at 155.50-155.90, 153.10-153.60, 151.85-152.35, 150.80-151.00, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50. The nearest resistance is in the 157.40 zone, followed by 157.70-158.00, 158.60, and 160.00-160.20.
No significant events or publications regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected next week.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bullish and Bearish Ethereum Prospects
For the second week, market participants' attention has been focused on the main altcoin. On 23 May, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 19b-4 applications from eight issuers of spot exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum. (According to JP Morgan experts, this was dictated not by a desire to support digital assets but by a political decision aimed at supporting Joe Biden ahead of the US presidential elections.) Whatever the true reason for this regulatory move, everyone is now interested in where Ethereum prices will go.
The newborn ETH-ETFs can only start trading after the SEC approves the S-1 applications. According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, this could take "weeks or months," although it is very likely to happen in mid-June. According to DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur Cheong, Ethereum's price could rise to $4,500 even before trading begins. CCData analysts believe that within 100 days of the launch of ETH-ETFs, the price could reach $5,000 per coin. This forecast is based on linear regression and the price statistics of bitcoin after the launch of spot BTC-ETFs. CCData's analysis assumes that inflows into similar Ethereum funds will be at least 50% of inflows into Bitcoin-ETFs, which means about $3.9 billion over a 100-day period.
Popular analyst Lark Davis has forecasted future growth for bitcoin to $150,000 and Ethereum to $15,000, explaining such a sharp price increase by the emerging market dynamics. The main reason for growth, Davis also cites spot BTC-ETFs, to which ETH-ETFs will now join. This will further fuel the cryptocurrency market's enthusiasm. Currently, spot BTC-ETFs hold 1,002,343 coins (≈ $68 billion), which is about 5% of the circulating supply of the flagship asset. Davis believes this impressive figure clearly indicates growing recognition of cryptocurrency and interest from institutional investors, especially from the US.
Strike CEO Jack Mallers predicts that during the ongoing bull rally, bitcoin could reach $250,000 and possibly rise in price to $1 million. On a podcast with Pomp Investments founder Anthony Pompliano, Mallers explained his bold forecast by stating that bitcoin is still at an early stage of development. According to him, the bond market is currently facing problems, so central banks may inject a significant amount of liquidity into the financial system to stabilize it. This liquidity influx will trigger an increase in the value of risky assets, including the leading cryptocurrency.
Jack Mallers disagrees with the notion that bitcoin is a bubble or a tool for speculation. The asset is becoming increasingly popular among financial giants on Wall Street, and its limited supply of 21 million coins makes BTC highly resistant to inflation, unlike fiat currencies and gold. "Bitcoin can be called the hardest form of money – thanks to the fixed issuance schedule and halvings every four years. The release rate of new coins gradually decreases, thereby increasing bitcoin's long-term value," argued the Strike CEO.
Analysts from financial investment company Motley Fool also target a six-figure number. They suggested that bitcoin's rate could rise to $400,000 and possibly even reach $1 million. The reason, which has been mentioned many times, is the influx of money from institutional investors through spot ETFs. Motley Fool analysts noted that more and more pension funds and hedge funds, managing multi-billion dollar sums, are entering the bitcoin market. Thanks to cryptocurrency ETFs, they can easily include bitcoin (and soon Ethereum) in their investment portfolios.
According to analysts, around 700 investment companies have already invested in such funds. Nevertheless, the share of institutional investors in bitcoin-ETFs is currently only about 10% of the total. Motley Fool estimates that if financial institutions invest about 5% of their assets in bitcoin, the market capitalization of the first cryptocurrency could exceed $7 trillion, which explains its forecasted rate of $400,000.
Considerably less optimism was heard in the forecast of Bloomberg senior analyst Mike McGlone. According to him, bitcoin's volatility leaves it trailing gold and the US dollar in investment appeal. Furthermore, he believes that stocks will soon crash amid the expected recession, but BTC will suffer even more than the stock market. McGlone emphasized that the Tether (USDT) stablecoin, pegged to the US dollar, typically trades twice as much per day as bitcoin. "I can access the US dollar anywhere in the world from my phone using Tether. Tether is the number one trading token. It's the number one cryptocurrency for trading. It's the dollar. The whole world has moved to the dollar. Why? Because it's the least bad of all fiat currencies," the Bloomberg expert stated.
While Mike McGlone merely downgraded bitcoin's attractiveness, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson simply buried it. He equated bitcoin to a religion and stated that the industry has outgrown its dependence on it. According to Hoskinson, "the industry no longer needs bitcoin to survive." He pointed out critical threats to the leading cryptocurrency, including insufficient adaptability and dependence on the Proof-of-Work algorithm.
Franklin Templeton analysts, on the contrary, consider L2 protocols, along with Ordinals, Runes, and DeFi primitives, as one of the main drivers of bitcoin's innovation revival. Strike CEO Jack Mallers defended the first cryptocurrency. According to him, the Lightning Network, created for instant and cheap transactions, a second-layer solution based on the BTC blockchain, can further increase the demand for the first cryptocurrency. Mallers believes that thanks to this, bitcoin can be used for everyday purchases, such as paying for a cup of coffee. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes called the native token of the Cardano blockchain (ADA) "dog shit" due to its low use in protocols.
As of the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, 31 May, ADA is trading at 0.45 USD per coin, while bitcoin and Ethereum are faring significantly better: BTC/USD is trading at $67,600, and ETH/USD at $3,790. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.53 trillion ($2.55 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remained almost unchanged over 7 days, staying in the Greed zone at 73 points (74 a week ago).
It should be noted that ETH/USD failed to break through the $4,000 resistance this past week. The local maximum was recorded on Monday, 27 May, at $3,974. The lack of an immediate pump is explained by the fact that everyone who wanted to buy Ethereum in anticipation of the SEC's historic decision already did so. Meanwhile, according to some analysts, there is a high probability that immediately after the launch of the long-awaited spot exchange funds, Ethereum will enter a deep drawdown, similar to what happened in January with bitcoin. Then, over 12 days, it fell by 21%.
One of the key reasons for BTC's drawdown at that time was the unlocking of GBTC fund assets from Grayscale, which was converted into a spot fund from a trust. It began losing investments daily at a rate of $500 million. It is possible that something similar could happen with Ethereum, where Grayscale's ETHE fund holds $11 billion worth of ETH. As soon as this fund is converted into a spot fund and its assets are unlocked, short-term investors might start taking profits, potentially causing ETH/USD to fall to the strong support zone of $2,900-3,200.
Pessimists among bearish factors also cite the uncertain legal status of the altcoin, as the SEC has not yet clearly defined whether ETH is a commodity or a security. Additionally, the regulator has many complaints about the staking program.
Staking is a way to earn cryptocurrency by "locking" a certain amount of coins in a wallet on the Proof of Stake (PoS) algorithm to support the network. In return, the user receives rewards in the form of additional coins. According to Wall Street legend Peter Brandt, "the biggest disasters in the cryptocurrency sphere that are yet to happen will be related to staking." The expert noted that such assets as Ethereum are often rented out to earn such income, often in the form of interest, which strongly reminds him of collapsed financial pyramids. As staking becomes more widespread, Brandt warned, it could attract increased attention from central banks, treasuries, and other authorities. This could lead to tighter regulation, significantly altering the crypto space and potentially resulting in the cessation of staking and bankruptcies for those involved.
NordFX Analytical Group
Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market