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Topic Summary

Posted by: 宽的
« on: January 30, 2024, 05:55:31 AM »

2024 年(欧元/美元)、(英镑/美元)和(美元/日元)预测

由于美国经济放缓、通胀下降以及美联储采取宽松的货币政策,预计欧元/美元今年将小幅上涨。

由于金融状况收紧,这将阻碍企业和个人借贷和支出(“减少总需求”),进而导致经济放缓,进而导致通胀进一步放缓(“通货紧缩”),美联储预计将开始 春季前后降息。

这对美元不利,对欧元有利。

根据历史季节性模式,美元往往在年初表现良好,而欧元区可能陷入衰退,第一季度欧元/美元大幅反弹可能为时过早,因此第二季度的可能性似乎更大。

尽管如此,由于隔夜逆回购(ON RRP)工具的耗尽、财政部普通账户(TGA)的提款以及银行定期融资计划(BTFP)套利的综合作用,第一季度美元流动性大幅增加 可能会超越季节性模式并导致欧元/美元比预期更早走强。

欧元/美元上涨的其他潜在障碍包括欧元区经济增长进一步恶化以及欧洲央行(ECB)也可能跟随美联储降息。

降息将使收益率差异不会像预期那样缩小。 因此,如果欧洲央行较早降息,美联储较晚降息,则可能导致欧元/美元走软。

最后,我们不要忘记即将到来的美国总统大选! 选举可能对美元产生重大影响,但预测这种影响的确切性质涉及大量的猜测(“猜测”)。 由于候选人尚未最终确定,我们必须拭目以待。

例如,虽然特朗普在 2016 年当选,最初使美元走强,但后来趋于稳定,这表明从长远来看,其他因素发挥了更大的作用。 他在 2020 年的失败也没有转化为任何重大的货币波动。

目前,我认为美联储的利率路径和欧洲央行的立场对欧元/美元的影响可能比选举结果更大。 如果美联储继续以快于欧洲央行的速度加息,无论谁当选总统,美元都可能走强。

英镑/美元

在英国央行 (BoE) 大幅加息以应对通胀飙升后,英镑于 2023 年起飞。

即使利率达到 15 年高点 5.25%,预计英国央行仍将维持这一高利率。 这一立场为英镑提供了支撑,特别是因为英国央行的做法比美联储(Fed)更为激进。

但故事并没有就此结束。 虽然高利率目前支撑着英镑,但同时也拖累了经济。

由于通胀预计将随着时间的推移而降温,英国央行可能会在 2024 年中期开始降息。 预计下半年将降息约 100 个基点。 这种情况将使英镑失去信心。

如果英国经济数据明显差于预期,焦点可能会从央行的货币政策转向不断恶化的经济形势,这可能会进一步削弱英镑。

另一方面,如果经济数据持续好于预期,可能会导致英国央行选择不降息(或降息幅度低于预期),从而提振英镑。

美元/日元

日元 (JPY) 是 2023 年最大的跌幅,兑所有其他主要货币均下跌。

为什么? 因为日本央行(BoJ)一直在“摇摆”,而其他央行则在“摇摆”。

当其他主要央行提高利率以对抗通胀时,日本央行却将利率维持在零以下。 与提供更高回报的货币相比,这种“超宽松”政策使得持有日元的吸引力降低。

然而,事情可能正在发生变化。 有关日本央行放弃零利率以下的传言以及对美联储未来降息的预期已经浮出水面。 这些变化已经提振了日元,美元/日元从 11 月中旬的 151.90 暴跌至 12 月的 141.00 以下!

如果美联储开始降息,美国和日本之间的利差将会缩小。

即使日本央行不完全放弃低于零的利率,与目前的情况相比,即使小幅上调也会提振日元。

随着美元和日元之间的利差缩小。 预计日元将在 2024 年继续走强。

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