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Messages - NadiaWits

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UK unemployment may not reach its worst, but economic rebound will stall

Failure to cut interest rates will take money out of the system, hitting businesses such as hospitalityUK real pay grows at fastest rate in two yearsBusiness live – latest updatesThe TUC boss, Paul Nowak, could be accused of exaggeration when he says “the Tories are presiding over a rapidly deteriorating jobs market”.The UK has experienced many periods when unemployment has deteriorated more quickly and the number of people out of work reached greater peaks. Continue reading...

Source: UK unemployment may not reach its worst, but economic rebound will stall

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FTSE 100 hits new closing high after UK economy escapes recession with fastest growth since 2021 – as it happened

Short, shallow recession is over, as UK economy grows faster than forecast in January-March quarter, by 0.6%, fastest quarterly growth in over two yearsAnalysis: Latest GDP figures offer some better news – but boom-boom Britain it ain’tFull story: UK has moved out of recession, official figures showLabour’s shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has posted that it’s ‘time for change’.Following this morning’s GDP report, Reeves says:From no growth to low growth - is that really the scale of the Conservatives’ ambitions?Food prices are still high, families are paying more on their monthly mortgage bills and working people are worse off.Construction remains the one area of weakness, particularly in the commercial sector. That’s no surprise.Real estate is particularly exposed to the effect of higher interest rates, and the upheaval of the pandemic is still rocking the office and retail sector - with increased home working and online shopping permanently changing demand. That’s not a trend that’s unique to the UK. Continue reading...

Source: FTSE 100 hits new closing high after UK economy escapes recession with fastest growth since 2021 – as it happened

3
Tory election hopes rest on the UK economy – they could go the way of the monasteries | Larry Elliott

Three key economic indicators loom large but none offer great hope for the Conservatives’ survivalTory MPs have been busy this past week and probably not found the time to watch Shardlake, the adaptation of CJ Sansom’s book set during the dissolution of the monasteries in the 1530s, but once the dust has settled from last week’s elections they might want to take a look.This was a turbulent period. Having forced through his own version of Brexit through the break with Rome, Henry VIII then in effect nationalised the assets of religious houses dotted around England, Wales and Ireland. It was a seminal moment in the development of British capitalism and the nation state. Continue reading...

Source: Tory election hopes rest on the UK economy – they could go the way of the monasteries | Larry Elliott

4
Inflation in Australia is still stubbornly high. Will the RBA raise interest rates again?

With hopes for a rate cut gone, there is speculation of another rise before the end of 2024. What factors will sway the Reserve Bank’s decision?Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcastPromising signs that inflation was moving in the right direction have been rocked by a stronger than expected reading for the March quarter.Experts are now questioning whether the Reserve Bank’s next move will to cut the cash rate or raise it. The RBA board will soon receive briefings for its 6-7 May meeting, including an update of the central bank’s main forecasts. Continue reading...

Source: Inflation in Australia is still stubbornly high. Will the RBA raise interest rates again?

5
Three and a bit years after Brexit, are border checks finally here?

Sort of: this week will see inspections of some goods. But the hit to businesses and inflation will be inescapableWhen Michael Gove announced the first delay to post-Brexit checks on plant and animal products coming into Great Britain from the EU, he was keen to make one thing clear.“Although we recognise that many in the border industry and many businesses have been investing time and energy to be ready on time, and indeed we in government were confident of being ready on time,” the then minister for the Cabinet Office said, “we have listened to businesses who have made a strong case that they need more time to prepare.” Continue reading...

Source: Three and a bit years after Brexit, are border checks finally here?

6
Kingsmill owner warns of price rises due to ‘very small’ expected harvests in UK

ABF, which also owns Dorset Cereals, says it is not yet planning rises but it may need to import ‘quite a lot’ of grainOne of the UK’s biggest bread makers has warned of potentially higher prices as it expects “very small” grain harvests in the UK, making the company more reliant on imports.George Weston, the head of Associated British Foods (ABF), which owns Kingsmill and Ryvita as well as Twinings tea, Dorset Cereals and the cut-price fashion retailer Primark, said the group had not increased its food prices in the past six months after a hefty period of inflation last year. Continue reading...

Source: Kingsmill owner warns of price rises due to ‘very small’ expected harvests in UK

7
Most difficult global outlook since 1930s heralds end of US-led world order | Larry Elliott

IMF has revised up growth forecasts but medium-term prospects remain poor as globalisation goes into reverseWorld Bank official calls for shake-up of G20 debt relief schemeThe 2020s are almost halfway over and are on course to be the most difficult decade for the global economy since the 1930s. Every finance minister and central bank governor at the spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington last week knows that, even if they were not prepared to admit it publicly.The IMF likes to look on the bright side. It revised up slightly its forecast for global growth and now thinks scarring from the coronavirus pandemic and the cost of living crisis will be less severe than it originally feared. Interest rates have risen without triggering the recessions that were predicted. A soft landing has been finessed. The performance of some countries – the US and India to take two examples – has been strong. Continue reading...

Source: Most difficult global outlook since 1930s heralds end of US-led world order | Larry Elliott

8
Australia rises to second in world budget management rankings, IMF data shows

Treasurer and finance minister hail ‘remarkable achievement’ as monitor finds balance to be behind only Canada among G20 countriesFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our morning and afternoon news emails, free app or daily news podcastAustralia’s overall budget balance is the second strongest among G20 nations, behind only Canada, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest fiscal monitor.The IMF’s half-yearly update, released on Wednesday night, found Australia’s overall budget balance came in at -0.9% of gross domestic product in 2023, with only Canada’s budget position (-0.6%) faring better.Sign up for Guardian Australia’s free morning and afternoon email newsletters for your daily news roundup Continue reading...

Source: Australia rises to second in world budget management rankings, IMF data shows

9
At last G20 is showing how to finance an assault on poverty | Larry Elliott

Brazilian president Lula’s proposals have the backing of the World Bank. Now we need action All things considered, the world’s richest countries have emerged from the global pandemic in better shape than they could have imagined when Covid-19 first appeared just over four years ago.To be sure, the impact of lockdown and its aftermath has been painful, but the effects on poor countries have been far more severe. Continue reading...

Source: At last G20 is showing how to finance an assault on poverty | Larry Elliott

10
Gold hits fresh record high; Fitch downgrades Thames Water parent company – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as gold rises almost 1% today to $2,365 per ounceUK retailers given hope of ‘green shoots of recovery’ after Easter pickupMexican precious metals mining company Fresnillo is benefitting from the rally in gold and silver.Fresnillo is leading the risers on the UK’s FTSE 100 share index this morning, up 4.4%, to its highest level since the start of January.Iran’s explicit threat of military retaliation following Israel’s targeting of its Syrian embassy has escalated tensions, amplifying the spectre of a broader regional conflict with potentially unforeseeable repercussions.Concurrently, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine exacerbates investor anxieties. Continue reading...

Source: Gold hits fresh record high; Fitch downgrades Thames Water parent company – as it happened

11
Brexit import charges may mean rise in food prices, say trade groups

Fees of up to £145 on EU animal and plant products through Dover and Folkestone begin on 30 AprilBusiness live – latest updatesTrade groups have warned that consumers could see a rise in food prices after the UK government announced the introduction of post-Brexit charges on imports of EU food and plant products later this month.The government has published details of fees – known as the common user charge – which will apply to small imports of animal products and plants, such as sausages, cheese and yoghurt, entering the UK from the EU through the port of Dover and through Eurotunnel at Folkestone. Continue reading...

Source: Brexit import charges may mean rise in food prices, say trade groups

12
Blow for Sunak as revised figures confirm UK went into recession last year

Latest estimate from ONS says GDP declined by 0.3% in final quarter of 2023• Why recession may be deeper than headline GDP falls suggestBusiness live – latest updatesOfficial figures have confirmed that the UK economy went into recession at the end of last year, after the latest estimate found it contracted in the last two quarters of 2023.In a blow to the government’s economic standing, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the economy, as measured by gross domestic product, shrank by 0.3% in the last three months of the year, unrevised from an earlier estimate. Continue reading...

Source: Blow for Sunak as revised figures confirm UK went into recession last year

13
Longest sustained rise in people too sick to work since 1990s, says thinktank

Resolution Foundation points to legacy of Covid as it warns that near-record 2.7m people are too ill to workBritain is going through the longest sustained rise in the number of working-age adults who are too sick to work since the 1990s, according to a report warning that a benefits crackdown is unlikely to solve the country’s jobless crisis.The Resolution Foundation said economic inactivity due to long-term sickness – when people aged 16-64 are neither in work nor looking for a job because of a health condition – had increased in each year since July 2019, the longest sustained rise since 1994 to 1998. Continue reading...

Source: Longest sustained rise in people too sick to work since 1990s, says thinktank

14
UK government borrows more in February than forecast with highest debt since 1960s

Higher than expected figure of £8.4bn in February could derail OBR forecast for £114.1bn deficit for 2023-24Business live – latest updatesJeremy Hunt has been handed disappointing news from the public finances after government borrowing was higher than expected in February, leaving the national debt at the highest levels since the 1960s.The Office for National Statistics said public sector net borrowing was £8.4bn in February, £3.4bn less than in the same month a year ago. However, it was higher than any economist expected in a Reuters poll that predicted a deficit of £6bn. Continue reading...

Source: UK government borrows more in February than forecast with highest debt since 1960s

15
UK inflation: which goods and services have changed most in price?

From milk to pasta and bicycles to vet bills, how the cost of everyday things variesUK inflation falls to 3.4% in February to lowest level for two and a half yearsThe fight against UK inflation is being won – but when will interest rates be cut?Business live – latest updatesThe UK’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.4% in February amid a slowdown in food and restaurant price rises.The Office for National Statistics compiled the overall reading using the consumer prices index but also logs prices for individual goods and services. Here we look at how the cost of many of those everyday items has changed over the past year. Continue reading...

Source: UK inflation: which goods and services have changed most in price?

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