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Author Topic: 2024 年美元指数 (DXY)  (Read 174 times)

临下压力

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on: January 28, 2024, 09:40:56 AM
2024 年美元指数 (DXY)

自美联储转向鸽派以来,美元指数一直面临下行压力,这一趋势一直持续到年底。 2023年美元指数下跌2.1%。

美元下跌的主要原因是市场预期美联储已经完成加息,并将在 2024 年提前开始大幅降息。

联邦基金期货显示,到 2024 年年底,联邦基金利率在 3.50% 至 4.00% 范围内的可能性约为 70%。

进入 2024 年,市场认为美联储是主要央行中最有可能启动降息的国家,预计将于 3 月份开始降息。

只要这种观点成立,美元就很难出现大幅复苏。 美元似乎很快就会测试100水平。

由于以下几个因素,美联储作为主要央行中最鸽派的看法可能会发生转变:

     美联储可能会采取更强硬的立场,挑战三月份降息的预期。
     美国通胀可能会反弹。
     欧盟和/或其他主要央行的官员可能会出人意料地倾向于鸽派政策,并预测降息时间会早于预期。

除非上述任何一种情况出现,否则美元可能会继续下行。



 

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