习近平会成为解决气候变化的救世主吗JACOB DREYER2024年4月24日 Minh Hoang/EPA, via ShutterstockAt first glance, Xi Jinping seems to have lost the plot.乍看上去，习近平似乎已经茫然失措。China’s president appears to be smothering the entrepreneurial dynamism that allowed his country to crawl out of poverty and become the factory of the world. He has brushed aside Deng Xiaoping’s maxim “To get rich is glorious” in favor of centralized planning and Communist-sounding slogans like “ecological civilization” and “new, quality productive forces,” which have prompted predictions of the end of China’s economic miracle.这位中国国家主席看起来正在扼杀使中国摆脱贫困，成为世界工厂的企业活力。他摒弃了邓小平“致富光荣”的格言，转而支持中央计划和听起来很共产党的口号，比如“生态文明”和“新质生产力”，这让人预测中国经济奇迹将会终结。But Mr. Xi is, in fact, making a decades-long bet that China can dominate the global transition to green energy, with his one-party state acting as the driving force in a way that free markets cannot or will not. His ultimate goal is not just to address one of humanity’s most urgent problems — climate change — but also to position China as the global savior in the process.但事实上，习近平是在下一个长达数十年的赌注——中国能够主导全球向绿色能源的转型，他的一党制国家将以自由市场无法或不愿的方式发挥推动作用。他的最终目标不仅是解决人类最紧迫的问题之一——气候变化，还要在这个进程中让中国成为全球救世主。It has already begun. In recent years, the transition away from fossil fuels has become Mr. Xi’s mantra and the common thread in China’s industrial policies. It’s yielding results: China is now the world’s leading manufacturer of climate-friendly technologies, such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. Last year the energy transition was China’s single biggest driver of overall investment and economic growth, making it the first large economy to achieve that.进程已经开始了。近年来，从化石燃料转型已成为习近平的口头禅，也成了中国产业政策反复提到的主题。它正在取得成果：中国现在是世界领先的气候友好型技术制造国，生产太阳能电池板、电动汽车电池和电动汽车。去年，能源转型成为中国整体投资和经济增长的最大推动力，使中国成为第一个实现这一目标的大型经济体。This raises an important question for the United States and all of humanity: Is Mr. Xi right? Is a state-directed system like China’s better positioned to solve a generational crisis like climate change, or is a decentralized market approach — i.e., the American way — the answer?这给美国和全人类提出了一个重要的问题：习近平是正确的吗？是由中国这样的国家主导的体制能更好地解决像气候变化这样的代际危机，抑或分散化的市场方式——即美国的方式——才是答案？How this plays out could have serious implications for American power and influence.这个问题的答案，可能直接关系到美国国力与影响力的走向。Look at what happened in the early 20th century, when fascism posed a global threat. America entered the fight late, but with its industrial power — the arsenal of democracy — it emerged on top. Whoever unlocks the door inherits the kingdom, and the United States set about building a new architecture of trade and international relations. The era of American dominance began.看看20世纪初发生的事情，当时法西斯主义构成了全球威胁。美国加入那场斗争的时间较晚，但凭借其工业实力——民主的军工厂——占据了上风。谁打开这扇大门，谁就能继承这个王国，美国开始着手建立一个新的贸易和国际关系架构。美国统治的时代开始了。Climate change is, similarly, a global problem, one that threatens our species and the world’s biodiversity. Where do Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia and other large developing nations that are already grappling with the effects of climate change find their solutions? It will be in technologies that offer an affordable path to decarbonization, and so far, it’s China that is providing most of the solar panels, electric cars and more. China’s exports, increasingly led by green technology, are booming, and much of the growth involves exports to developing countries.同样，气候变化也是一个全球性问题，威胁着我们的物种和世界的生物多样性。巴西、巴基斯坦、印度尼西亚和其他已经在努力应对气候变化影响的大型发展中国家到哪里找解决方案？答案是能够提供经济实惠的脱碳之路的技术，到目前为止，中国提供了大部分的太阳能电池板和电动汽车等。中国的出口日益以绿色技术为主导，正在蓬勃发展，其中大部分增长涉及对发展中国家的出口。From the American neoliberal economic viewpoint, a state-led push like this might seem illegitimate or even unfair. The state, with its subsidies and political directives, is making decisions that are better left to the markets, the thinking goes.从美国新自由主义经济学的观点来看，由国家主导的这种推动似乎是不正当的，甚至是不公平的。这种想法认为，政府凭借补贴和政治指令，做出了更适合由市场来做的决定。But China’s leaders have their own calculations, which prioritize stability decades from now over shareholder returns today. Chinese history is littered with dynasties that fell because of famines, floods or failures to adapt to new realities. The Chinese Communist Party’s centrally planned system values constant struggle for its own sake, and today’s struggle is against climate change. China received a frightening reminder of this in 2022, when vast areas of the country baked for weeks under a record heat wave that dried up rivers, withered crops and was blamed for several heatstroke deaths.但中国领导人有自己的考量，他们更看重几十年后的稳定，而不是今天的股东回报。中国历史上因饥荒、洪水或未能适应新现实而覆灭的王朝比比皆是。中国共产党的中央计划体制重视为自身利益而不断斗争，而今天的斗争是针对气候变化的。中国在2022年收到了一个可怕的提醒——一场创纪录的热浪持续数周，使河流干涸、庄稼枯萎，并导致数人中暑死亡。China’s government knows that it must make this green transition out of rational self-interest or risk joining the Soviet Union on history’s scrap heap, and is actively positioning itself to do so. It is increasingly led by people with backgrounds in science, technology and environmental issues. Shanghai, the country’s largest city and its financial and industrial leading edge, is headed by Chen Jining, an environmental systems expert and China’s former minister of environmental protection. Across the country, money is being poured into developing and bringing to market new advances in things like rechargeable batteries and into creating corporate champions in renewable energy.中国政府知道，出于理性的自利，它必需进行绿色转型，否则就有可能和苏联一样，进入历史的垃圾堆，如今，它正在积极地做准备。越来越多具有科学、技术和环境问题背景的人士开始领导中国政府。上海是中国最大的城市，也是金融和工业的前沿，目前它由环境系统专家、前中国环境保护部部长陈吉宁领导。全国各地都在投入资金，开发可充电电池等新技术，并将其推向市场，同时也在打造可再生能源领域的领军企业。To be clear, for Mr. Xi, this green agenda is not purely an environmental endeavor. It also helps him tighten his grip on power. In 2015, for instance, the Central Environmental Inspection Team was formed to investigate whether provincial leaders and even agencies of the central government were adhering to his green push, giving him another tool with which to exert his already considerable power and authority.需要明确的是，对于习近平来说，这个绿色议程不纯粹是一项环保工作，也有助于他加强对权力的控制。例如，2015年，中央生态环境保护督察组成立，调查省级领导甚至中央政府机构是否遵守了他的绿色推动计划，这给了他另一个工具，来行使他已经相当大的权力和权威。At the same time, locking in renewable energy sources is a national security issue for Mr. Xi; unlike the United States, China imports almost all of its oil, which could be disrupted by the U.S. Navy in choke points like the Malacca Strait in the event of war.与此同时，对习近平来说，锁定可再生能源也是一个国家安全问题；与美国不同的是，中国几乎所有的石油都依靠进口，一旦发生战争，美国海军可能会在马六甲海峡等咽喉要道切断中国的石油供应。Mr. Xi’s plan — call it his Green Leap Forward — has serious deficiencies. China continues to build coal-fired power plants, and its annual greenhouse-gas emissions remain far greater than those of the United States, though American emissions are higher on a per-capita basis. China’s electric vehicle industry was built on subsidies, and the country may be using forced labor to produce solar panels. Those are serious concerns, but they fade into the background when Pakistan floods or Brazil wants to build an E.V. factory or South Africa desperately needs solar panels for a faltering energy grid.习近平的计划——可以称之为他的绿色大跃进——有着严重的缺陷。中国还在继续建设燃煤电厂，其年度温室气体排放量仍然远远高于美国，尽管美国的人均排放量更高。中国的电动汽车产业是建立在补贴基础上的，而且中国可能正在使用强迫劳工来生产太阳能电池板。这些都是严重的问题，但当巴基斯坦发生洪水，巴西想要建造电动汽车工厂，或者南非迫切需要太阳能电池板来支撑摇摇欲坠的电网时，这些问题就会被淡忘。American politics may be inadvertently helping China gobble up global market share in renewable energy products. When the United States — whether for national security or protectionist reasons — keeps Chinese companies like Huawei out of the American market or rolls up the welcome mat for electric vehicle makers like BYD or companies involved in artificial intelligence or self-driving cars, those businesses must look elsewhere.美国的政治可能会在不经意间帮助中国蚕食可再生能源产品的全球市场份额。当美国——无论是出于国家安全原因还是保护主义原因——将华为这样的中国公司挡在美国市场之外，或者不再欢迎比亚迪这样的电动汽车制造商，以及涉及人工智能或自动驾驶汽车的公司时，这些企业只能把目光投向别处。President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, aimed at tackling climate change, has put the United States on a solid path toward carbon neutrality. But America’s decentralization and focus on private innovation means government policy cannot have quite the same impact that it can in China.拜登总统提出的旨在应对气候变化的《通货膨胀削减法案》使美国走上了迈向碳中和的坚实道路。但美国的权力下放和对私人创新的重视，意味着政府政策无法产生与中国相当的影响。So it is crucial for Americans to recognize that, for most of the world, perhaps for all of us, China’s ability to provide low-cost green technology is, on balance, great news. All of humanity needs to move toward renewables at a huge scale — and fast. America still leads in innovation, while China excels in taking frontier science and making its application in the real world cost-effective. If American politicians, investors and businesses recognize that climate change is humanity’s biggest threat, that could open pathways for diplomacy, collaboration and constructive competition with China that benefit us all.因此，美国人必须认识到，总的来说，中国提供低成本绿色技术的能力对世界上大多数国家，也许对我们所有人来说，都是一个好消息。全人类都需要大规模、快速地转向可再生能源。美国在创新方面仍处于领先地位，而中国则擅长将前沿科学以具有成本效益的方式应用到现实世界中。如果美国的政界人士、投资者和企业认识到，气候变化是人类最大的威胁，这将为同中国的外交、合作和建设性竞争开辟道路，使我们所有人受益。Together, China and the United States could decarbonize the world. But if Americans don’t get serious about it, the Chinese will do it without them.中国和美国可以合作使世界实现脱碳。但如果美国人不认真对待这件事，中国人就会自己动手。And if the United States tries to obstruct China, by way of corporate blacklists, trade or technology bans or diplomatic pressure, it will end up looking like part of the climate problem. That happened earlier this month when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, during a visit to China, urged officials here to rein in green technology exports that the United States says are hurting American companies.如果美国试图通过企业黑名单、贸易或技术禁令或外交压力来阻挠中国，那么它最终将会被视为气候问题的一部分。本月早些时候就出现了这样的情况，美国财政部长耶伦在访问中国期间敦促中国官员控制绿色技术出口，美国称这些技术正在损害美国公司的利益。Mr. Xi won’t completely toss out the polluting manufacturing-for-export economic model that has served China so well, nor does he seem ready to halt construction of coal plants. Both are considered necessary for economic and energy security until the green transition is complete. But they are now only a means to an end. The endgame, it seems, is to reach carbon neutrality while dominating the industries making that possible.中国用带来污染的制造业换取出口，这个经济模式一直运行良好，习近平不会彻底放弃。他似乎也不准备停止燃煤电厂的建设。在绿色转型完成之前，两者都被认为是经济和能源安全所必需的。但它们现在只是达到目的的一种手段。最终的目的似乎是实现碳中和，同时主导使之成为可能的产业。Much like how the United States showed up late for World War II, China’s clean-tech companies are latecomers, piggybacking on technology developed elsewhere. But history rewards not necessarily who was there first but who was there last — when a problem was solved. Mr. Xi seems to discern the climate chaos on the horizon. Winning the race for solutions means winning the world that comes next.就像美国在第二次世界大战中姗姗来迟一样，中国的清洁技术公司也是后来者，它们借用了其他地方开发的技术。但历史奖励的不一定是先到者，而是最后到来者——也就是当问题得到解决时到来的人。习近平似乎觉察到了迫在眉睫的气候混乱。在解决这个问题的竞赛中获胜，就意味着赢得下一个世界。Jacob Dreye是一位美国编辑和作家，专注于中国政治经济学和科学的交叉领域。他居住在上海。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。
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习近平会成为解决气候变化的救世主吗
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