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Posted by: SuHaiJack
« on: November 29, 2022, 06:00:27 AM »

美国正面对一个与伊朗直接对抗的新时代

DAVID E. SANGER2022年11月25日9月在德黑兰的抗议活动。反政府示威是由玛莎·阿米纳的被捕和死亡引发的。 Wana News Agency/Via ReutersOver the past few days, Iran has told international inspectors that it plans to begin making near bomb-grade nuclear fuel deep inside a mountain that is hard to bomb, and dramatically expand its nuclear fuel production at a plant that Israel and the United States have repeatedly sabotaged.过去几天里,伊朗告诉国际核查人员,它计划在一座难以被轰炸的大山深处开始制造接近炸弹级别的核燃料,并在一座被以色列和美国多次破坏的工厂内大幅扩大核燃料生产。Iranian forces have shot or locked up antigovernment protesters, provided Russia with drones for its war in Ukraine and, some Western intelligence agencies suspect, may be negotiating to produce missiles as well for Russia’s depleted arsenal. The United States accused Iran on Tuesday of once again violating Iraqi territory to conduct attacks in the Kurdistan region.伊朗军队射杀或关押反政府抗议者,为俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争提供无人机,一些西方情报机构怀疑,伊朗军队可能还在与俄罗斯谈判,为其日渐枯竭的武器库生产导弹。美国周二指责伊朗再次侵犯伊拉克领土,在库尔德斯坦地区发动袭击。A new era of direct confrontation with Iran has burst into the open. Its emergence was hidden for a while by more dramatic events — including the Ukraine invasion and rising U.S. competition with China — and negotiations with Tehran dragged on, inconclusively, for 18 months.一个与伊朗直接对抗的新时代突然出现在公众面前。它的出现被更加戏剧性的事件掩盖了一段时间——包括对乌克兰的入侵和美中日益加剧的竞争——与德黑兰的谈判拖了18个月,没有结果。Now, Mr. Biden’s hope of re-entering the United States into the deal with Iran that was struck in 2015, and that President Donald J. Trump abandoned, has all but died. Negotiations halted in September, and in recent weeks Mr. Biden has imposed new sanctions on Iran and expressed support for protests that Iran’s hard-liners have portrayed as a mortal threat.现在,拜登让美国重新加入2015年达成的、被特朗普总统抛弃的伊朗核协议的希望几乎破灭。谈判于9月停止,最近几周,拜登对伊朗实施了新的制裁,并表示支持被伊朗强硬派描述为致命威胁的抗议活动。At the White House, national security meetings on Iran are devoted less to negotiation strategy and more to how to undermine Iran’s nuclear plans, provide communications gear to protesters and interrupt the country’s supply chain of weapons to Russia, according to several administration officials.据几名政府官员透露,在白宫,有关伊朗问题的国家安全会议很少讨论谈判策略,更多是在讨论如何破坏伊朗的核计划,为抗议者提供通讯设备,以及切断伊朗向俄罗斯的武器供应链。“There is no diplomacy right now underway with respect to the Iran deal,” John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council at the White House, bluntly told the Voice of America last month. “We are at an impasse right now, and we’re not focused on that.”“目前没有针对伊朗协议的外交行动,”白宫国家安全委员会发言人约翰·柯比上个月对美国之音直言。“我们现在陷入了僵局,我们并没有专注这个问题。”Henry Rome, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the scope of the threat goes well beyond the issue that has officials at the Pentagon especially concerned: the movement of the most worrisome nuclear enrichment activity to the underground facility called Fordow that was completed a decade ago.华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员亨利·罗姆说,伊朗威胁的范围远远超出了五角大楼官员特别担心的问题:最令人担忧的核浓缩活动被转移到十年前建成的名为福尔道的地下设施。“Imagine telling the incoming administration in January 2021 that within two years, Iran would be enriching to near weapons-grade uranium at Fordow, deploying its most advanced centrifuges in large numbers, accepting severely limited international monitoring, accumulating multiple bombs’ worth of highly enriched uranium and rejecting diplomatic efforts,” Mr. Rome said. “That’s not quite a worst-case scenario, but it’s pretty close.”“想象一下,在2021年1月告诉即将上任的政府,伊朗将在两年内在福尔道进行接近武器级的铀浓缩,大量部署其最先进的离心机,接受极其有限的国际监督,积累多枚炸弹级别的高浓缩铀,并拒绝外交努力,”罗姆说。“这还不是最坏的情况,但已经很接近了。”As recently as the summer, American officials still had hopes of reviving the nuclear deal. An agreement negotiated by European and Iranian teams was nearly complete. Representatives of the Biden administration — whom the Iranians refused to talk to directly — had approved the outlines and were awaiting a final sign-off from the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It never came.就在今年夏天,美国官员还对重启核协议抱有希望。欧洲和伊朗代表团谈判达成的协议已接近完成。拜登政府的代表——伊朗拒绝与他们直接对话——已经批准了纲要,正在等待最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊的最后签字,但一直没有等到。U.S. intelligence officials assessed that reviving the deal was as unpopular among Iranian conservatives and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which runs the military side of the nuclear program, as it was among many American critics of the arrangement. The Iranians had sought, unsuccessfully, a commitment that the United States would never again withdraw from the accord unilaterally. And they knew that once they re-entered the deal, most of the nuclear fuel Iran had amassed in response to Mr. Trump’s decision would have to be shipped out of the country.美国情报官员评估称,伊朗保守派和负责核项目军事方面的伊斯兰革命卫队不欢迎重启协议,就像许多批评该协议的美国人不喜欢它一样。伊朗人曾寻求美国承诺不再单方面退出该协议,但没有成功。他们知道,一旦重新加入协议,伊朗为应对特朗普的决定而积累的大部分核燃料将不得不运出该国。Then came the street protests and an agreement with Russia that essentially put Iran, along with Belarus, in the position of aiding the Russian invasion.随后发生了街头抗议,以及同俄罗斯达成的一项协议,该协议基本上把伊朗和白俄罗斯置于协助俄罗斯入侵的位置。“The regime has made a series of consequential choices that is increasingly cutting them off both from their people and from much of the international community — including European countries that had devoted the bulk of the Trump years seeking to salvage the nuclear deal,” Robert Malley, the State Department’s special envoy for the Iran negotiations, said on Tuesday.美国国务院伊朗谈判特使罗伯特·马利周二表示:“伊朗政权做出的一系列重大决定逐渐切断了与其人民和大部分国际社会的联系——包括欧洲国家,这些国家在特朗普执政的大部分时间里都在寻求挽救核协议。”Mr. Malley has usually been more optimistic about the chances of a diplomatic solution, but his view has clearly shifted. “Iran turned their back on a nuclear deal that was within grasp,” he said, adding that the country’s government “failed to engage” with the International Atomic Energy Agency when it demanded more visits and data to sites where nuclear material had been detected. Iran then announced plans for new nuclear production after the agency issued a resolution condemning the lack of cooperation.马利一向对外交解决持较乐观的态度,但他的观点显然已经转变。他说:“伊朗背弃了一项触手可及的核协议。”他还说,当国际原子能机构要求走访检测到核材料的地点并要求更多数据时,该国政府“未能配合”。该机构发布了谴责伊朗缺乏合作的决议,伊朗随后宣布了新的核生产计划。The result has been “a series of vicious cycles,” Mr. Malley said. “The repression fuels more protests. The protests trigger more repression. The alliance with Russia only further isolates Iran, which prompts it to double down on this alliance for lack of any other partner.”马利说,这造成了“一系列恶性循环”的结果。“镇压引发了更多的抗议。抗议引发了更多的镇压。与俄罗斯的联盟只会进一步使伊朗孤立,伊朗没有其他合作伙伴,这促使它大力加强这一联盟。”Of greatest concern to Israel and many in the United States was Iran’s announcement that it would begin enriching nuclear fuel to 60 percent inside Fordow, the facility it built inside a mountain, on a military base, after the repeated cyberattacks and physical assaults on the Natanz nuclear enrichment site. During the nuclear negotiations that ran from 2013 to 2015, the Obama administration tried to get the Fordow site closed. The lead negotiator, Wendy Sherman, now the deputy secretary of state, said at the time that the failure to do so was among her bigger disappointments — though the agreement explicitly barred the kind of nuclear activity that the Iranians recently said they would conduct there.以色列和许多美国人最关心的是,伊朗宣布将开始在福尔多将核燃料纯度提炼至60%。福尔多是在纳坦兹核浓缩场反复遭到网络和物理攻击后,由伊朗在一个军事基地的一座山中建造的设施。在2013年至2015年的核谈判期间,奥巴马政府试图关闭福尔多设施。首席谈判代表、现任副国务卿温迪·谢尔曼当时表示,没能关闭该设施是让她格外失望的几件事之一——尽管该协议明确禁止伊朗人进行他们近期宣称计划在该地点实施的核活动。Now the question is whether the more hawkish new government that Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to form in Israel will press for an attack on the facility, which would be hard to destroy except with the largest bunker-busting bombs. Both the United States and Israel have trained to conduct a strike, and Mr. Netanyahu came close to ordering one when he last served as prime minister.现在的问题是,本雅明·内塔尼亚胡试图在以色列组建的更加强硬的新政府是否会敦促对该设施发动攻击——它很难被摧毁,除非使用最大的地堡炸弹。美国和以色列都进行过袭击演练,内塔尼亚胡上一次担任总理时差点下令发动袭击。By the public assessments offered by the administration, Iran has now made so much progress that it could amass fuel suitable for a bomb in a matter of weeks — down from a warning time of more than a year under the 2015 agreement. But the West would still have time: The C.I.A. and Israeli intelligence officials say that fashioning the fuel into a working weapon that could fit atop a missile would take two years, and the United States recently issued an assessment that it had no evidence of a bomb-making project underway.根据政府提供的公开评估,伊朗取得的进展已经足以在几周内积聚适合制造炸弹的燃料——低于2015年协议中估计的一年多的预警期。但西方仍有时间:CIA和以色列情报官员表示,将这种燃料制成可以安装在导弹顶部的有效武器需要两年时间,美国最近发布的评估报告称,没有证据表明它正在实施炸弹制造项目。But that assumes near perfect intelligence about the state of the nuclear and missile programs, at a time that inspections have been limited and cameras installed by the International Atomic Energy Agency have been shut off by the Iranians. Growing gaps in knowledge could make the diversion of nuclear fuel hard to detect. And several experts have noted that Iran is developing large cruise missiles that could eliminate many of the obstacles to delivering a weapon.但这种评估的前提是,有关核计划和导弹计划的状态的情报几乎都是准确的,但监察是受限的——国际原子能机构安装的摄像机已被伊朗人关闭。越来越大的信息差距可能使核燃料的转移难以被发现。几位专家指出,伊朗正在研制大型巡航导弹,可以消除发射武器的许多障碍。There are other complications. Iran’s provision of drones to the Russians has now become an important factor in the war, and if that cooperation extends to missiles — so far, there is no confirmation that it will — the United States and Ukraine will look for ways to disrupt the arms flow. But that could risk escalation, since Russia has so far been reluctant to attack the shipments of Western arms into Ukraine.还有其他复杂因素。伊朗向俄罗斯人提供无人机现在已成为战争的一个重要因素,如果这种合作扩展到导弹——到目前为止,还没有证实会发生——美国和乌克兰将想方设法破坏武器流通。但这可能有升级的风险,因为俄罗斯迄今为止一直不愿攻击西方向乌克兰运送的武器。Mr. Biden has been more outspoken in support of the antigovernment protesters than President Barack Obama was during similar demonstrations early in his presidency. Several of Mr. Biden’s aides who served in the Obama administration said they were overcautious the last time, fearing that the protesters would be tarred as instigators linked to the C.I.A.在支持反政府抗议者方面,拜登不像贝拉克·奥巴马总统任职初期那样投鼠忌器。拜登的几位曾在奥巴马政府任职的助手表示,他们上次过于谨慎,担心抗议者会被指责为与CIA有联系的煽动者。But that leaves open the question of how the United States can provide more than rhetorical and moral support to the protesters, and whether Mr. Biden would risk covert action to help them — especially given the long history, back to the 1950s, of C.I.A. meddling in internal Iranian politics. While that history is largely forgotten by most Americans, it is taught to Newbie trader Iranians in vivid detail.但这留下了一个悬而未决的问题,即美国如何才能向抗议者提供不仅仅是口头和道义上的支持,以及拜登是否会冒险采取秘密行动来帮助他们——尤其是考虑到CIA有着干涉伊朗内政的漫长历史,可以追溯到1950年代。虽然这段历史在很大程度上被大多数美国人遗忘了,但却被生动而详细地讲述给年轻的伊朗人。Much may depend on whether Mr. Biden and his aides now regard Iran as a larger danger than it did when the president came to office.这在很大程度上可能取决于拜登和他的助手是否将伊朗视为比他刚上任时更大的危险。“The administration used to say that it wanted to put Iran’s nuclear program in a box, and I think that reflected the broader idea of putting the Iran challenge off to the side once a deal was reached,” Mr. Rome said. “But the administration must now contend with the fact that, in essentially all fields, the Iranian threat to international peace and security is greater today than it was two years ago.”“政府过去常说它想把伊朗的核计划装在一个匣子里,我认为这反映了更广泛的想法,即一旦达成协议就将伊朗的挑战搁置一旁,”罗姆说。“但政府现在必须应对这样一个事实,即在基本上所有领域,伊朗今天对国际和平与安全的威胁比两年前更大。”David E. Sanger是白宫和国家安全记者。他在时报任职38年,参与的三个团队获得了普利策奖,最近一次是在2017年获得国际报道奖。他最新出版的一本书是《完美武器:网络时代的战争、破坏和恐惧》(The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age)  。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 美国正面对一个与伊朗直接对抗的新时代

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