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« on: May 18, 2019, 12:08:49 AM »为什么中美贸易战将是痛苦而漫长的？
NEIL IRWIN2019-05-16 17:20:55特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平于2017年在北京会面。这一次，双方领导人似乎正在走向对抗。
Just two weeks ago, the United States and China seemed to be gliding toward a trade deal meant to resolve tensions between the world’s two largest economies.就在两周前，美国和中国似乎还在渐渐走向一份贸易协议，旨在解决全球两个最大经济体之间的紧张关系。But the breakdown in talks since — the United States raised tariffs to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese imports, for example, and is threatening to tax an additional $300 billion — worries people who study international economic diplomacy. 但是自那以来，谈判开始破裂——美国把价值2000亿美元的中国进口商品的关税提高到25%，并威胁要再对价值3000亿美元的商品征收关税——这令国际经济外交研究人士感到担忧。That’s because both the United States and China seem to be digging into their positions in ways that will be hard to resolve with the mutual face-saving that typically turns high-stakes negotiations into deals.这是因为以美中双方目前所进入的态势，已经难以用保全双方颜面的方式解决，让高风险的谈判变成交易。To use a common negotiating metaphor, it is not clear what the offramps might be that would allow a de-escalation and prevent a major trade war that would prove costly to both nations.用一个常见的谈判比喻来说，目前不清楚有哪些匝道能让局势降级，并防止一场给两国都造成高昂代价的重大贸易战。In effect, President Trump appears to view continuing tension with China as good for him politically and has said, contrary to the view of mainstream economists, that tariffs are a reason for the United States’ recent economic good fortune.实际上，特朗普总统似乎认为，与中国持续的紧张关系对他的政治利益是有好处的；与主流经济学家的观点相反，他还表示，关税是美国最近经济好运的原因之一。China’s leaders may not reveal their thinking in real time on Twitter, but they have signaled that many of the concessions the United States wants would require China to sacrifice core parts of its economic strategy and national sovereignty — in particular its ambitions to lead in the high-tech industries of the future.中国领导人可能不会在Twitter上实时透露他们的想法，但他们都表示，许多美国希望的让步等于是让中国牺牲其经济战略和国家主权的核心部分——特别是它在未来高科技产业中占据主导地位的雄心。“Each side has dug itself into some fairly deep holes such that it will be difficult to emerge from,” said Douglas Rediker, chairman of International Capital Strategies and a former U.S. representative to the International Monetary Fund. As is often the case in negotiations, the pathway to a deal may rest in a “constructive ambiguity” that both sides can present to their domestic audiences as a win."双方都给自己挖了相当深的坑，很难从中脱身，"国际资本战略(International Capital Strategies)主席及前美国驻国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)代表道格拉斯·雷迪克(Douglas Rediker)说。达成协议的道路可能会停留在一种“建设性的模糊”之中，双方都可以将这种模糊性当做胜利，呈现给国内受众，这是谈判中经常出现的情况。“Do I believe there’s enough room to find common ground?” Mr. Rediker said. “Yes, but only based on this ambiguity that doesn’t necessarily resolve the issues in one party’s favor or another.”“我相信有足够的空间，可以找到共同点吗？”雷迪克说。“是的，但只是基于这种模糊性，并不一定能解决问题，令某一方从中获利。”Both sides have taken subtle steps to allow time for last-ditch efforts. China sent a senior negotiator to Washington last week despite the breakdown in talks, and it delayed the start of its retaliatory tariffs on American imports until June 1. The United States applied the newest wave of higher tariffs based on when ships containing the affected goods arrive, adding a few weeks in which a reversal could be hammered out.双方都采取了微妙的措施，为最后的努力留出时间。尽管谈判破裂，中国上周仍派出一名高级谈判代表前往华盛顿，并将对美国进口商品征收报复性关税的时间推迟到6月1日。美国最新一轮提高关税的措施是根据载有受影响货物船只的抵达时间做出的，这增加了几周的时间，在此期间有可能会收回这些措施。And President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China could meet at the G20 summit in late June in Osaka, Japan, which would be an opportunity for de-escalation at the highest levels.特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平将于6月下旬在日本大阪举行的G20峰会上会面，这将是最高层缓和紧张局势的一个机会。But open lines of communication and time to work won’t by themselves solve the problem of how to finesse some mutually agreeable deal, particularly given that both countries view this negotiation as resetting their economic relationship in ways that would have long-lasting consequences.但是，开放的沟通渠道和运作的时间本身，并不足以解决如何达成双方都认同的协议这个问题，尤其是两国都认为这次谈判将以一种可能产生长期影响的方式重新确立两国经济关系。Add in Mr. Trump’s tendency to view every negotiation through a zero-sum prism, and it may be hard to find a pathway for both parties to go home able to proclaim victory.再加上特朗普倾向于用零和视角看待每一次谈判，或许很难找到一条道路，让双方都能在国内宣布胜利。
2012年，北京，经过81天的拘押，艺术家艾未未在家中写出“自由”一词。
When the negotiations seemed to be going well a few weeks ago, “I thought we were going toward constructive ambiguity,” said Mary E. Lovely, an economist and trade expert at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School.几周前，当谈判似乎进展顺利时，雪城大学麦克斯韦尔学院(Maxwell School)的经济学家兼贸易专家玛丽·E·洛夫里(Mary E. Lovely)说，“我认为我们正在走向建设性的模糊。”The United States is demanding that China codify rules into law to protect American companies (and their technology) that do business in China. Chinese negotiators now reject that possibility; American officials said they had agreed to those provisions.美国要求中国将保护在中国做生意的美国公司（及其技术）的相关规定写入法律。中国谈判代表现在拒绝了这种可能性；美国官员表示这是他们本来已经同意了的“It looks like there was a level of specificity that China wasn’t willing to accept and a level of ambiguity that the Trump administration wasn’t willing to accept,” Ms. Lovely said. “It looks like the Chinese are firm that there are some areas where they are not willing to go, that they see as disrespectful.”“似乎某种程度的具体性是中国不愿意接受的，也有某种程度的模糊性是特朗普政府不愿意接受的，”洛夫里说。“中国人看上去很坚定，不愿意在他们认为是不尊重他们的领域达成协议。”If the escalation now being signaled by both sides goes into force, Americans will face higher prices for a wide range of goods, and certain American manufacturers will face less demand for their products. Already, American farmers are suffering amid reduced Chinese demand for soybeans and other products. The Chinese manufacturing sector is hurting as well — and is likely to suffer further if tariffs reduce American demand for their products or drive relocation of production to other countries.如果双方目前发出的升级信号生效，美国人将面临多种商品价格上涨，某些美国制造商的产品需求将减少。由于中国对大豆和其他产品的需求减少，美国农民已经开始受害。中国制造业也受到了冲击——如果关税降低美国对其产品的需求，或推动生产转移到其他国家，中国制造业可能会遭受更大冲击。Ultimately the question becomes how much of that pain each side will be willing to endure, and whether the two nations’ leaders feel a sense of urgency to each help the other save face domestically.最终，问题变成了双方愿意承受多大程度的痛苦，以及两国领导人是否迫切感到需要帮助对方在国内挽回颜面。Things can change quickly. In a different sphere, for example, Mr. Trump went from threatening North Korea with nuclear annihilation to acting as if they were old friends practically overnight.事情可以很快发生变化。例如，在另一个领域，特朗普本来威胁要用核武器毁灭朝鲜，几乎一夜之间就表现得好像双方是老朋友一样。But given where things stand, it may take that kind of surprising reset between two top leaders, built on personal relationships, rather than the slow grind of hammering out an agreement that is more typical of economic diplomacy.但是考虑到目前的形势，可能的确需要两国最高领导人在个人关系基础上进行剧烈的调整，而不是依照经济外交中典型的做法，缓慢地敲定一项协议。“The off-ramps are tricky here because the president believes this is good policy, and the Chinese are loath to cave on it,” said Jay Shambaugh, a professor of international economics at George Washington University and director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. “It’s not abundantly clear how you climb down without any damage.”“这里的匝道很棘手，因为总统认为这是一项好政策，而中国人不愿就此屈服，”华盛顿大学国际经济学教授、布鲁金斯学会汉密尔顿项目(Hamilton Project at The Brookings Institution)主任杰伊·尚博(Jay Shambaugh)表示。“怎样才能毫发无伤地做出让步，目前还不是十分清楚。”The question for the weeks and months ahead is how much damage each side will tolerate before rethinking some of those basic assumptions and deciding that they don’t want to dig in quite so hard, after all.未来几周和几个月的问题是，双方在重新考虑一些基本条件，并最终决定不那么拼命坚持之前，还能容忍多大的破坏。Neil Irwin是时报资深经济记者。他曾为《华盛顿邮报》撰文，著有《炼金术师：三大央行行长如何拯救危机中的世界》(The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire)。欢迎在Facebook和Twitter上关注他。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。
Source: 为什么中美贸易战将是痛苦而漫长的？
NEIL IRWIN2019-05-16 17:20:55特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平于2017年在北京会面。这一次，双方领导人似乎正在走向对抗。
Just two weeks ago, the United States and China seemed to be gliding toward a trade deal meant to resolve tensions between the world’s two largest economies.就在两周前，美国和中国似乎还在渐渐走向一份贸易协议，旨在解决全球两个最大经济体之间的紧张关系。But the breakdown in talks since — the United States raised tariffs to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese imports, for example, and is threatening to tax an additional $300 billion — worries people who study international economic diplomacy. 但是自那以来，谈判开始破裂——美国把价值2000亿美元的中国进口商品的关税提高到25%，并威胁要再对价值3000亿美元的商品征收关税——这令国际经济外交研究人士感到担忧。That’s because both the United States and China seem to be digging into their positions in ways that will be hard to resolve with the mutual face-saving that typically turns high-stakes negotiations into deals.这是因为以美中双方目前所进入的态势，已经难以用保全双方颜面的方式解决，让高风险的谈判变成交易。To use a common negotiating metaphor, it is not clear what the offramps might be that would allow a de-escalation and prevent a major trade war that would prove costly to both nations.用一个常见的谈判比喻来说，目前不清楚有哪些匝道能让局势降级，并防止一场给两国都造成高昂代价的重大贸易战。In effect, President Trump appears to view continuing tension with China as good for him politically and has said, contrary to the view of mainstream economists, that tariffs are a reason for the United States’ recent economic good fortune.实际上，特朗普总统似乎认为，与中国持续的紧张关系对他的政治利益是有好处的；与主流经济学家的观点相反，他还表示，关税是美国最近经济好运的原因之一。China’s leaders may not reveal their thinking in real time on Twitter, but they have signaled that many of the concessions the United States wants would require China to sacrifice core parts of its economic strategy and national sovereignty — in particular its ambitions to lead in the high-tech industries of the future.中国领导人可能不会在Twitter上实时透露他们的想法，但他们都表示，许多美国希望的让步等于是让中国牺牲其经济战略和国家主权的核心部分——特别是它在未来高科技产业中占据主导地位的雄心。“Each side has dug itself into some fairly deep holes such that it will be difficult to emerge from,” said Douglas Rediker, chairman of International Capital Strategies and a former U.S. representative to the International Monetary Fund. As is often the case in negotiations, the pathway to a deal may rest in a “constructive ambiguity” that both sides can present to their domestic audiences as a win."双方都给自己挖了相当深的坑，很难从中脱身，"国际资本战略(International Capital Strategies)主席及前美国驻国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)代表道格拉斯·雷迪克(Douglas Rediker)说。达成协议的道路可能会停留在一种“建设性的模糊”之中，双方都可以将这种模糊性当做胜利，呈现给国内受众，这是谈判中经常出现的情况。“Do I believe there’s enough room to find common ground?” Mr. Rediker said. “Yes, but only based on this ambiguity that doesn’t necessarily resolve the issues in one party’s favor or another.”“我相信有足够的空间，可以找到共同点吗？”雷迪克说。“是的，但只是基于这种模糊性，并不一定能解决问题，令某一方从中获利。”Both sides have taken subtle steps to allow time for last-ditch efforts. China sent a senior negotiator to Washington last week despite the breakdown in talks, and it delayed the start of its retaliatory tariffs on American imports until June 1. The United States applied the newest wave of higher tariffs based on when ships containing the affected goods arrive, adding a few weeks in which a reversal could be hammered out.双方都采取了微妙的措施，为最后的努力留出时间。尽管谈判破裂，中国上周仍派出一名高级谈判代表前往华盛顿，并将对美国进口商品征收报复性关税的时间推迟到6月1日。美国最新一轮提高关税的措施是根据载有受影响货物船只的抵达时间做出的，这增加了几周的时间，在此期间有可能会收回这些措施。And President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China could meet at the G20 summit in late June in Osaka, Japan, which would be an opportunity for de-escalation at the highest levels.特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平将于6月下旬在日本大阪举行的G20峰会上会面，这将是最高层缓和紧张局势的一个机会。But open lines of communication and time to work won’t by themselves solve the problem of how to finesse some mutually agreeable deal, particularly given that both countries view this negotiation as resetting their economic relationship in ways that would have long-lasting consequences.但是，开放的沟通渠道和运作的时间本身，并不足以解决如何达成双方都认同的协议这个问题，尤其是两国都认为这次谈判将以一种可能产生长期影响的方式重新确立两国经济关系。Add in Mr. Trump’s tendency to view every negotiation through a zero-sum prism, and it may be hard to find a pathway for both parties to go home able to proclaim victory.再加上特朗普倾向于用零和视角看待每一次谈判，或许很难找到一条道路，让双方都能在国内宣布胜利。
2012年，北京，经过81天的拘押，艺术家艾未未在家中写出“自由”一词。
When the negotiations seemed to be going well a few weeks ago, “I thought we were going toward constructive ambiguity,” said Mary E. Lovely, an economist and trade expert at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School.几周前，当谈判似乎进展顺利时，雪城大学麦克斯韦尔学院(Maxwell School)的经济学家兼贸易专家玛丽·E·洛夫里(Mary E. Lovely)说，“我认为我们正在走向建设性的模糊。”The United States is demanding that China codify rules into law to protect American companies (and their technology) that do business in China. Chinese negotiators now reject that possibility; American officials said they had agreed to those provisions.美国要求中国将保护在中国做生意的美国公司（及其技术）的相关规定写入法律。中国谈判代表现在拒绝了这种可能性；美国官员表示这是他们本来已经同意了的“It looks like there was a level of specificity that China wasn’t willing to accept and a level of ambiguity that the Trump administration wasn’t willing to accept,” Ms. Lovely said. “It looks like the Chinese are firm that there are some areas where they are not willing to go, that they see as disrespectful.”“似乎某种程度的具体性是中国不愿意接受的，也有某种程度的模糊性是特朗普政府不愿意接受的，”洛夫里说。“中国人看上去很坚定，不愿意在他们认为是不尊重他们的领域达成协议。”If the escalation now being signaled by both sides goes into force, Americans will face higher prices for a wide range of goods, and certain American manufacturers will face less demand for their products. Already, American farmers are suffering amid reduced Chinese demand for soybeans and other products. The Chinese manufacturing sector is hurting as well — and is likely to suffer further if tariffs reduce American demand for their products or drive relocation of production to other countries.如果双方目前发出的升级信号生效，美国人将面临多种商品价格上涨，某些美国制造商的产品需求将减少。由于中国对大豆和其他产品的需求减少，美国农民已经开始受害。中国制造业也受到了冲击——如果关税降低美国对其产品的需求，或推动生产转移到其他国家，中国制造业可能会遭受更大冲击。Ultimately the question becomes how much of that pain each side will be willing to endure, and whether the two nations’ leaders feel a sense of urgency to each help the other save face domestically.最终，问题变成了双方愿意承受多大程度的痛苦，以及两国领导人是否迫切感到需要帮助对方在国内挽回颜面。Things can change quickly. In a different sphere, for example, Mr. Trump went from threatening North Korea with nuclear annihilation to acting as if they were old friends practically overnight.事情可以很快发生变化。例如，在另一个领域，特朗普本来威胁要用核武器毁灭朝鲜，几乎一夜之间就表现得好像双方是老朋友一样。But given where things stand, it may take that kind of surprising reset between two top leaders, built on personal relationships, rather than the slow grind of hammering out an agreement that is more typical of economic diplomacy.但是考虑到目前的形势，可能的确需要两国最高领导人在个人关系基础上进行剧烈的调整，而不是依照经济外交中典型的做法，缓慢地敲定一项协议。“The off-ramps are tricky here because the president believes this is good policy, and the Chinese are loath to cave on it,” said Jay Shambaugh, a professor of international economics at George Washington University and director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution. “It’s not abundantly clear how you climb down without any damage.”“这里的匝道很棘手，因为总统认为这是一项好政策，而中国人不愿就此屈服，”华盛顿大学国际经济学教授、布鲁金斯学会汉密尔顿项目(Hamilton Project at The Brookings Institution)主任杰伊·尚博(Jay Shambaugh)表示。“怎样才能毫发无伤地做出让步，目前还不是十分清楚。”The question for the weeks and months ahead is how much damage each side will tolerate before rethinking some of those basic assumptions and deciding that they don’t want to dig in quite so hard, after all.未来几周和几个月的问题是，双方在重新考虑一些基本条件，并最终决定不那么拼命坚持之前，还能容忍多大的破坏。Neil Irwin是时报资深经济记者。他曾为《华盛顿邮报》撰文，著有《炼金术师：三大央行行长如何拯救危机中的世界》(The Alchemists: Three Central Bankers and a World on Fire)。欢迎在Facebook和Twitter上关注他。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。
Source: 为什么中美贸易战将是痛苦而漫长的？