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Author Topic: 一个人口萎缩、老龄化的中国可能将自己逼入绝境  (Read 118 times)

SuHaiJack

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一个人口萎缩、老龄化的中国可能将自己逼入绝境

储百亮, JOY DONG, AMY CHANG CHIEN2023年1月19日坐在婴儿车上手持国旗的儿童,摄于北京2019年国庆节期间。出生率下降和人口老龄化已使中国陷入人口困境。 Gilles Sabrie for The New York TimesChina’s leaders have long known that the country is nearing a demographic crossroads. Policymakers have warned that China must prepare for a slowly shrinking population and an era of fewer workers and more retirees. State media have urged Newbie trader couples to seize the opportunity to have two or three children under relaxed family-size rules, to soften the looming economic crunch.中国领导层早就知道该国正在接近一个人口拐点。政策制定者警告,中国必须为人口萎缩以及劳动力减少、退休人员增多的时代做好准备。官媒已敦促年轻夫妇抓紧时机生两到三个孩子,政府为缓解即将出现的经济困境,已放开了对生育的限制。And yet the sense of incipient crisis grew on Tuesday, when the government confirmed that the nation’s population shrank last year for the first time in six decades, sooner and sharper than many experts had forecast.然而,当政府在周二证实,中国人口在去年出现了60年来的首次下降,拐点比许多专家的预测来得更快、更突然时,危机初现的感受变得更加强烈了。Even if Chinese officials have warned that a demographic Rubicon was approaching, their preparations have not kept pace with the long-term needs of an aging society, in the eyes of many experts and Chinese people.尽管中国官员已对人口将出现无法逆转的拐点发出了警告,但在许多专家和中国民众看来,他们还没有为老龄化社会的长期需求做好充分准备。China’s abrupt abandonment of “zero Covid” controls exposed a government ill prepared for an explosion in infections. And, similarly, the mounting population pressures may reveal a government that has not done enough to avoid tough choices in coming decades over rival priorities. Between the demands of caring for Newbie trader and old. Between paying for social welfare and building up China’s technological and military might.中国突然放弃新冠“清零”政策的做法暴露了政府对感染的暴发准备不足。与之类似,不断增长的人口压力可能会暴露出政府尚未采取足够措施来避免未来几十年可能面临的局面,即被迫在相互竞争的优先事项上做出艰难选择。比如,如何满足照料幼童与照料老年人的不同需求。是把钱花在支付社会福利上,还是花在建设技术和军事实力上。China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has partly sought to tackle the long-term economic and social pressures from a shrinking, aging society more by lifting the limits on family size. He has taken steps to build a strong social safety net and announced a new phase of “high-quality” growth less dependent on legions of cheap, abundant migrant workers from the countryside.中国领导人习近平已在一定程度上寻求通过取消对生育的限制,来缓解一个人口不断缩小的老龄化社会所面临的长期经济和社会压力。他已采取步骤建立一个强大的社会安全网,并宣布经济进入了一个“高质量”增长的新阶段,减少了对廉价、充裕的农民工大军的依赖。“The population issue is the most important issue for the future and yet the one that is most easily neglected,” Ren Zeping, a former chief economist for the Evergrande Group, a massive housing developer, who has studied the looming demographic crunch, wrote in a widely circulated comment after the figures were released Tuesday. Mr. Ren called for more energetic policy-making, including birth subsidies, stronger paternity and maternity leave, and improved protection of women’s rights in the workplace.“人口问题是未来最重要又最容易被忽视的问题,”任泽平在周二的数据公布后写道,他的这条评论在网上广泛流传。任泽平曾在大型房地产开发商恒大集团担任首席经济学家,研究过迫在眉睫的人口危机。他呼吁政府制定更积极的政策,包括生育补贴、更长的产假和陪产假,以及加强对职场女性权益的保护。在北京一个公园里晨练的老年人,摄于2022年。After the latest population statistics were released, many suggested in social media posts and in interviews that the government’s moves may be too little and too late. To many, the government has barely begun to tackle the deeper reasons many Newbie trader couples choose to have one child or none at all, like the costs of rearing and educating children and lack of substantial government support, especially for women, at home and in the workplace.最新的人口统计数据公布后,许多发在社交媒体上的帖子和接受采访的人都暗示,政府的措施也许并不足够,且为时已晚。在许多人看来,政府几乎还没有开始着手解决许多年轻夫妇选择只生一个孩子、或一个孩子都不要的更深层原因,比如抚养成本和教育成本,以及缺乏政府实质性的支持,无论是在家里还是在工作场所,尤其是对女性而言。“I’d like to have a kid, but the living pressures are just too much,” Wu Yilan, a 34-year-old shopkeeper in Beijing, said in a telephone interview. She said she had discussed it with a former boyfriend. “If I settle down with a partner, I’d probably think that one child is enough.”“想生孩子,但是生活压力实在太大,”现年34岁的北京店主吴一兰(音)在接受电话采访时说。她说她和前男友讨论过这个问题。“如果有对象,大概想生一个就好。”Anxiety and argument about China’s new demographic era have been building as birthrates have slowed, especially in recent years. It has now hit a turning point: China’s population in 2022 fell by 850,000, with more deaths than births for the first time since a famine in the early 1960s caused by Mao Zedong’s calamitous social experiment, Great Leap Forward.随着出生率的下降,有关中国人口新时代的焦虑和争论一直在加剧,尤其是在最近几年,现已到了一个转折点:中国人口在2022年减少了85万,这是自20世纪60年代初以来,中国的死亡人数首次超过了出生人数。上次人口减少是毛泽东灾难性的社会实验“大跃进”导致的饥荒造成的。Chinese demographers, economists and business leaders have offered a number of ideas to support a growing number of older people and encourage couples to have more children. In 2016, the government eased the “one-child” policy that had been enforced for over three decades, allowing families to have two children. In 2021, it increased the limit to three.在如何赡养越来越多的老年人、鼓励夫妇生更多孩子方面,中国的人口学家、经济学家和工商界领袖已提出了许多想法。政府已在2016年取消了实施三十多年的“独生子女”政策,允许夫妇生两个孩子,后在2021年提高到允许生三个。Even so, most couples still stick to having one child, while two is common in the countryside. Many Newbie trader people, especially women, remain skeptical that the government is going to make it easier for them to both have children and remain in the formal work force.尽管如此,大多数夫妇仍只生一个孩子,虽然两个孩子的情况在农村比较普遍。许多年轻人,尤其是女性,对政府是否会让她们生孩子后还能保住工作变得更容易持怀疑态度。由于经济和社会压力,中国越来越多的年轻人只生一个孩子或一个孩子都不要。Jennie Liu, a 32-year-old podcast platform manager in Shanghai, said that she and her boyfriend agreed that they would like to raise one or two children — but only if they could “run,” a Chinese buzzword for moving abroad.上海一个播客平台的经理、现年32岁的珍妮·刘(音)说,她和男友同意生一到两个孩子,但前提是他们能“润”出去。“润”是个目前流行的词,指的是离开中国。“If we can run to somewhere with better welfare and an improved overall social environment where a child can obtain residency status, then we may think about having a kid,” she said. In China, “the aging population and decline of the working-age population will definitely put pressure on government finances.”“如果润去一个福利更好、社会环境整体更优、小孩可以拿身份的地方,可能会考虑生一个小孩,”她说。中国的“人口老龄化和适龄劳动人口的下降,未来一定会对财政有压力”。The societal issues run deep. After Tuesday’s data release, some on the Chinese internet said that despite government promises of a fairer deal for women, many employers did not want to employ women in better, steady jobs, because they did not want to deal with maternity leave and child care.社会的问题根深蒂固。周二的数据公布后,中国互联网上有些人表示,尽管政府承诺让女性得到更公平的待遇,但许多雇主由于不想考虑产假和育儿的问题,对于更好、更稳定的职位不愿考虑女性。“In the job market, they worry that if you’re 23-30, you’ll get married and have a kid, that if you’re 30-35 you’ll have a second or third one, and if you’re over 35, then sorry,” read one comment. “This kind of social setting is already the best form of contraception. All those policies to encourage births and open up will amount to nothing.”“职场23-30岁怕你去结婚生子,30-35岁怕你生二胎三胎。35岁+不好意思,连公务员和体制内都带头不招人了,”网上一条评论写道。“这样的社会环境,就已经是最好的避孕药。所有的催生和放开政策都将无济于事。”The measures championed by Chinese policymakers often neglect the broader pressures on women, especially those from rural and working-class backgrounds, which put them in a painful bind between family and work, said Yige Dong, an assistant professor of sociology at the University at Buffalo, which is part of the State University of New York system.中国政策制定者倡导的措施往往忽视了女性面临的更广泛压力,尤其是那些来自农村和工人阶级背景的女性,这让她们在家庭和工作之间陷入痛苦的两难,布法罗大学社会学助理教授董一格说。该校是纽约州立大学系统的一部分。Families face intense pressure to get children into better schools, with much of the burden falling on mothers who are often also often expected to care for aged parents and parents-in-law.家庭面临着让孩子上最好的学校的巨大压力,这种压力大部分落在母亲身上,她们还经常被指望照顾年迈的父母和公婆。“They are caught between the demand to go to work and the demands for intensive parenting,” Ms. Dong said, citing interviews with female migrant workers in central China.“她们夹在需要工作与集约型养育的需求之间,”董一格说,这是她采访中国中部的女性农民工得出的结论。“On the one hand, China is talking about this as a crisis of a declining fertility rate, and on the other hand, they are cracking down on feminism,” she said in a telephone interview. “With those two things in contradiction, how can you convince the next generation of Newbie trader women — who have their own aspirations — to go into marriage?”“一方面,中国将女性权益作为生育率下降危机的因素来谈论,另一方面,政府正在打击女权主义,”董一格在接受电话采访时说。“由于这两种做法相互矛盾,政府怎样才能说服下一代年轻女性结婚生子呢?她们都有自己的抱负。”A shrinking, aging society is far from unique to China, even in Asia, and the effects will unfold over decades. Even so, China’s heavy restrictions on family size in past decades mean that the country is confronting these pressures much sooner in its economic takeoff than, say, Japan or South Korea.人口萎缩、老龄化的社会不只是中国独有的问题。仅就亚洲而言,这个问题的影响也将在几十年的时间里逐渐显现出来。尽管如此,中国过去几十年实行的严格计划生育政策意味着,中国在经济腾飞阶段面临人口压力的时间,比日本或韩国来得更早。对许多中国人来说,政府还没有开始解决许多年轻夫妇选择只生一个孩子或不生孩子的深层原因。The resulting economic and population pressures will erode China’s strength in coming decades and could encourage its leaders to become more aggressive before they feel their national power has ebbed, says Michael Beckley, an associate professor at Tufts University and co-author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, a new book that lays out this argument.这个问题带来的经济和人口压力将在未来几十年削弱中国的实力,并可能导致中国领导人在感到国力衰退之前变得更好斗,塔夫茨大学副教授迈克尔·贝克利说道,他在与别人合著的新书《危险地区:与中国的未来冲突》(Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China)中阐述了这个论点。“China’s proposed demographic reforms are drops in the bucket. They are swamped by the fact that China will lose 5 to 10 million working-age adults and gain 5 to 10 million senior citizens every year for the foreseeable future,” Professor Beckley said in emailed answers to questions. “You can’t compensate for that kind of demographic crunch simply by raising the retirement age.”“中国提出的改善人口结构的措施是杯水车薪。使他们不堪承受的一个事实是,在可预见的未来,中国每年将失去500万到1000万工作年龄人口,同时增加500万到1000万老年人口,”贝克利在通过电子邮件回答记者提问时写道。“不能只靠提高退休年龄来弥补这种人口困境。”Other scholars have disputed Professor Beckley’s forecast of a demographically led decline in Chinese power. China, they note, could counter population pressures by providing better training for workers, improving their productivity and by increasing innovation and automation across industries.其他学者对贝克利预测中国实力将受人口因素影响出现衰落的看法提出异议。他们指出,中国能够通过对工人进行更好的培训、提高他们的生产力,以及加强跨行业的创新和自动化,来应对人口压力问题。But few disagree that such changes would demand much more spending commitments from Chinese leaders, who also want to invest heavily in military modernization, technological advancement and internal security.但大家几乎一致认为,这些做法需要中国领导人做出更多的支出承诺,同时他们也希望在军事现代化、技术进步和国内安全方面投入更多资金。Mr. Xi has not been blindsided by these challenges. Beijing has unfurled policies to encourage expanded senior care, and promised more social support for women who want to have children. Since citizens have repeatedly expressed public anger over Forex and Stock Speculatingual harassment at universities, companies and media outlets, the government has also promised to crack down.习近平对这些挑战并非毫无准备。中国政府已推出了鼓励扩大养老服务的措施,并承诺为想生育的女性提供更多的社会支持。由于人们对大学、公司和媒体机构的性骚扰多次公开表示愤怒,政府还承诺要予以打击。While Mr. Xi has endorsed equality between the Forex and Stock Speculatinges and repeated Mao’s dictum that “women hold up half the sky,” he has also encouraged respect for traditional family roles.虽然习近平表示支持男女平等,并重提了毛泽东的名言“妇女能顶半边天”,但他也鼓励尊重女性在家庭中的传统作用。一名女子抱着孩子观看北京的升旗仪式,摄于2018年。越来越多的中国女性为实现自己的抱负放弃生孩子。“The broad number of women must conscientiously shoulder the burden of caring for the elderly and nurturing the Newbie trader, educating children, and playing a role in building family virtues,” he said in 2013.“广大妇女要自觉肩负起尊老爱幼、教育子女的责任,在家庭美德建设中发挥作用,”他在2013年说。But framing China’s population pressures as a matter of attitude issues among Newbie trader women distracts from the deeper social and economic pressures on them, said Ms. Dong, the professor from the University at Buffalo.但是,把中国的人口压力表述为年轻女性的态度问题,分散了人们对她们承受的更深层次社会和经济压力的注意力,布法罗大学教授董一格说。“It’s a political issue, not a question of social engineering,” she said. “The blame is put on families and individuals, especially Newbie trader women who are unwilling to get married, but they don’t talk about the role of the state and its policies.”“这是政治问题,而不是社会工程问题,”她说。“他们把问题归咎于家庭和个人,尤其是不愿结婚生子的年轻女性,而不提国家的作用和政策。”储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼,在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前,他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他: @ChuBailiang。Joy Dong常驻香港,报道中国大陆和香港的新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@JoyDongHK。Amy Chang Chien在台湾为《纽约时报》报道中国大陆和台湾新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她: @amy_changchien。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

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