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Forex News 外汇新闻 / 中国麻将风靡全球,全世界都在喊“hu le”
« Last post by MarkFengZhi on October 01, 2022, 06:06:31 PM »
中国麻将风靡全球,全世界都在喊“hu le”

本文来自微信公众号:


新生活方式研究院 (ID:neweeklylifestyle)


,作者:郑依妮,头图来自:视觉中国


在中国,逢年过节,人们吃完饭转头就会坐上麻将桌。无论是走亲访友,还是朋友聚会,在家里热腾腾打上几圈麻将,似乎才有家庭氛围。而
现在,麻将已经漂洋过海,成为不少海外华人和外国人宅家的新娱乐方式,就连NBA球星奥尼尔也是一个出了名的麻将迷。


外国人将麻将当作娱乐益智游戏,海外的客户纷纷通过网店下单麻将机。

天猫淘宝海外事业部总经理叶剑秋说:“新加坡、澳大利亚、美国、加拿大地区买得最多,他们很喜欢自动麻将机、家用一级品麻将、英文麻将。”有的客户还发来定制需求,比如美国客户要求电压110伏;有的客户还让在麻将牌上标上英文。
许多中国品牌的麻将机都卖断货,海外订单排到年后。





越来越多外国人爱上打麻将,许多中国品牌的麻将机都卖断货,海外订单排到年后。丨pixabay


一、纽约公园里的麻将社交,上东区的女人爱麻将

在纽约曼哈顿,搓麻将成为了上流社会的一种热门社交活动。

每周一的下午,纽约上东区的女人们就会来到公园大道南381号萨拉贝斯餐厅。这一天对她们来说,是“麻将日”。她们来这里只有一个目的,那就是打麻将。

曼哈顿麻将俱乐部的创始人琳达·费恩斯坦
(Linda Feinstein)
说:“我的俱乐部会员大部分来自纽约曼哈顿上东区,还有一些来自比弗利山庄的会员,她们每年会有十天时间来这里,大家聚在一起打麻将。
这些名媛贵妇都有充足的时间,她们的丈夫认为她们来这里打麻将花的钱,比去第五大道逛街花的钱要少得多。麻将打得好,在上流社会自然混得开
。”

据年过七旬的琳达介绍,她在9岁时的一次家庭旅行中学会了麻将,从此就爱上了。她教过4000多名学生,包括NBC 高管梅尔·波斯特
(Meryl Poster)
、伍迪·艾伦电影公司制片人莱迪·埃尔森
(Letty Aronson)
,还有著名珠宝设计师朱迪斯·利卡
(Judith Ripka)


后来,琳达在2005年成立了这家位于曼哈顿的麻将俱乐部。俱乐部从最初只有2桌的规模,到现在发展成超过30桌。会员须交纳45美元,才可以参加麻将活动。
除了提供麻将,琳达还给会员提供午餐和饮品,并且随时协助和回答问题。


琳达说:“在布莱恩公园
(Bryant Park)
还有一个麻将角。因为公园是开放的,总有不同的人会来到这里,他们会好奇我们是怎么玩的,我们也会好奇他们是怎么玩的,大家会一起沟通麻将技巧,然后认识新的朋友。不同背景的女性都喜欢学习麻将,看到那么多人喜欢麻将我也很开心。而且这些人并不只是在周一才玩麻将,很多人每天都会玩一下。”

这个公园的麻将角里,经常能够看到老外们每四个围成一桌,津津有味地打麻将。

“麻将可以教会我重要的生活技巧,例如沟通、策略、合作。它真正实现了游戏的传统情感。我真的不知道有任何其他游戏有像麻将这样长的历史。”琳达说,
“这是世界上最好的游戏。”


二、“hu le”和“pong”

在网上,有各种教外国人打麻将的文章,YouTube随便一搜也有很多麻将教程,观看量都是几十万到上百万次。还有各种各样的麻将培训班,
老外是把麻将当成课程来学习的。


“曼哈顿麻将学习班,8周速成,拥有30年丰富经验的导师手把手教你打麻将。”——这是林国伟麻将教室的广告语。

林国伟是美籍华人。他从小就看大人打麻将,12岁就学会了。后来,他在退休后建立了一个麻将培训班,叫“八条”。他说:“八是我的幸运数字,在中国也是代表好运的数字,所以我喜欢这个名字。”同时,林国伟还担任麻将老师,教老外打麻将。

在林国伟的麻将培训班教室里,麻将的“东西南北”是用英文表示的。每个学生的面前还摆了一个麻将规则说明书,上面编写了美国国际麻将协会的赢牌规则,以便忘了的时候可以随时查看。




在视频网站上,很多外国人通过网络教学来学习如何打麻将。


在林国伟看来,麻将历经千年时光,上到八旬老人,下到十岁孩童都能玩,不仅是娱乐益智游戏,更承载了独特的中国文化,是一种宝贵的国粹。每当他看到老外在打麻将时说“pong”“hu le”的时候,他都会有种民族自豪感在内心油然而生。

林国伟说:“我在教麻将的时候,也会把相关的一些中国文化融入进去,
(让)
他们在学习麻将的同时,也更加了解中国的一些文化。而且曾经有一个研究表明,
适度打麻将是一种可以训练认知、延缓认知老化甚至预防老年痴呆的好活动,不但可以保持头脑的灵活,还能够保持手指的灵活
。”




三、国际麻将大赛,冠军竟然都是老外


安东尼奥是西班牙人,很小的时候他就学会了麻将,也参加过好几次国际麻将比赛。

安东尼奥说:
“麻将在欧洲很风靡。”
在他看来,麻将是一个社交游戏,输赢都可能带来很大的情绪波动,能使人沉浸其中。
对于中国人来说,认麻将的牌可能很容易,但是对于西班牙人来说,可能学了两年依然对各种花色分不清楚。


参加世界麻将锦标赛的美国选手奥托·麦斯李维科表示,他很小就会打麻将了。中文不好也不妨碍他学习麻将的热情,他很快知道了用中文说“碰、吃、杠、胡”。

《麻将:游戏的艺术》
(Mah Jongg: The Art of the Game)
作者桂格·斯温
(Gregg Swain)
说:“美国的麻将规则和中国的很不一样。”




一大波“歪果仁”自学打麻将,英文版麻将术语诙谐有趣。视频截图


根据桂格的研究,
1920年约瑟夫把麻将从中国带往国外的时候,认为中国麻将的规则对于美国人和欧洲人来说太难了,所以他自行简化了游戏规则。
后来,美国的一些麻将公司把麻将的规则又进行了简化。

所以当时美国和中国一样,不同地方的麻将有许多种游戏规则,没有一种统一的玩法。于是在1937年,五个女人在纽约创立了国际麻将规则。她们参考了一些中国麻将的规则,但又作了改良,因此,如今麻将在国外的玩法和规则,和中国的麻将很不一样。

欧洲麻将协会是世界麻将组织
(WMO)
的成员之一,致力于在欧洲推广麻将运动。
在欧洲,每个国家都有好几个麻将俱乐部,所以加起来欧洲有上百个麻将俱乐部。
世界麻将组织目前在欧洲一共有19个会员国,会定期举办欧盟麻将比赛、马德里麻将公开赛等麻将赛事。




杨紫琼和卢燕主演的《疯狂亚洲富豪》(Crazy Rich Asians),两个女人打麻将的片段。视频截图


自从麻将在国际社会流行开来,老外们的技术也越来越好了。在去年的欧洲麻将锦标赛中,前20名全部是欧洲人。中国队仅获得第37名,铩羽而归。


老外们对于打麻将格外认真,每个国家组织都有自己的官方网站,还有精心设计的徽标。
国际智力运动联盟执行主席杰弗里说:“麻将发展的规模越大,就意味着它越可能被奥林匹克机构接受。赛事组织会变得越来越专业,就像任何其他运动一样。竞技麻将和休闲麻将不一样,如果想成为专业运动员,也要保持高强度的训练和比赛,没有捷径。”

四、麻将能治情绪病吗?

在斯坦福大学读历史学博士的海因茨称麻将是“跨越时间和距离保持其核心趣味和美感的非凡游戏”。在他看来,美国麻将正变得越来越多样化。
如果说桥牌被视为男性的游戏,那么麻将在美国还被认为是女性的游戏。


从心理学的角度而言,
麻将这个活动非常容易激发人的心流体验,令人高度专注,忘记时间、忘记空间,沉浸其中。
所以,打麻将是适应能力较强的表现,反映了人们主动寻求连接与快乐的能力。

麻将爱好者爱丽丝认为,麻将能够治愈她的精神创伤。爱丽丝说:“当年我的先生去世,幸亏我朋友跟我打了七天七夜的麻将,我赢了100多个庄,然后走出了悲伤。”


打麻将还要求和队友的合作策略。桂格·斯温写了两本关于麻将的书。她说:“我认为麻将是美国最受欢迎的游戏,因为我们都在寻找摆脱烦恼的方法。当你坐在麻将桌前,你想的只有如何从这些牌里胜出。它能让你的大脑保持活跃的思考。这是一个严肃的游戏,同时又是一个让人感慨、愉悦的游戏。”

有一次,在奥斯卡影后朱莉娅·罗伯茨参加脱口秀节目的时候,主持人问她做了什么来放松自己。

朱莉娅·罗伯茨说:
“让我保持放松的方式之一,是我每个星期都会和好姐妹打一次麻将,这已经成为我们固定的每周活动。”


朱莉娅·罗伯茨也有自己的一套麻将哲学,她表示:“对于我来说,
麻将能让人学会从无序中建立秩序和规律。
生活就像打麻将,每天我们都试图通过随机的智慧和善意的行为,在生活的混乱中整理出一点秩序。”


本文来自微信公众号:


新生活方式研究院 (ID:neweeklylifestyle)


,作者:郑依妮


                                                                                   
                                                                       

                                本内容为作者独立观点,不代表虎嗅立场。未经允许不得转载,授权事宜请联系 hezuo@huxiu.com
如对本稿件有异议或投诉,请联系tougao@huxiu.com

Source: 中国麻将风靡全球,全世界都在喊“hu le”
3
GFX 系列全球挑战项目 2022 赛季开启!等你来挑战!

2022-09-22
      2022 年 9 月富士胶片宣布再次启动年度 GFX 系列全球挑战项目!该项目面向全球所有有梦想和抱负影像爱好者,通过项目选拔,对于项目优胜者提供项目赞助的一项全球性招募计划。
GFX 全球挑战项目是一项由富士胶片资助摄影创作者就个人影像项目的扶持创作活动。该项目从全球众多申请人中评选授予 5 个全球资助奖和 10 个区域资助奖,以帮助有影像抱负的内容创作者,让他们有机会着手将他们具有重要意义的想法付诸实践。自 2021 年 11 月开始以来,已有大约 3,000 份来自世界各地的申请。项目的申请数量和创意质量都超出了我们的预期。这些珍贵的反馈让我们确信有这么多人对 GFX 无反中画幅系统和影像项目感兴趣。我们对所有申请人表示衷心的感谢。2021 年度赛事所有项目已于 2022 年 8 月底前完成,项目的最终成果将于 2022 年 11 月,日本东京的总部 “FUJIFILM SQUARE 影像空间” 举办一场盛大展览。详情参阅:https://fujifilm-x.com/global/special/gfx-challenge-program/2021/
2022 年度 GFX Challenge 全球挑战项目将继续向全球选拔赞助 5 名 “全球创作资助奖” 获奖者提供 10000 美元的现金赞助,10 名 “区域创作资助奖” 获奖者提供 5000 美元的现金赞助。旨在帮助有抱负的摄影师和视频制作人将他们的影像项目带入大众视野。在 2023 年 8 月之前项目执行过程中,获奖者还将免费使用富士胶片所提供的 GFX 系统设备和技术支持。
全球评委介绍
2022 年度赛事最终评选将由四位全球评委评审选出。
佐藤雅子 Curator & Founder Contact. Co., Ltd.
佐藤雅子毕业于东京上智大学文学院新闻系。加入 PPS News 后,她参与了众多知名摄影展的策划与制作。2013 年,创办展览策划制作公司。在日本为 Robert Doisneau 从事版权管理和编辑策划,主要策划以摄影为中心的展览。参与 Robert Doisneau、 Jacques Henri Lartigue、上田正司、后町茂夫等多个巡回展览,以及索尔·莱特在日本的首次作品回顾展。
Pauline Vermare 策展人、摄影历史学家、作家
Pauline Vermare 是一位影像策展人、摄影历史学家和作家。Magnum Photos NY 前文化总监,纽约国际摄影中心(ICP)、纽约现代艺术博物馆(MoMA)和亨利卡地亚 布列松基金会的前策划人。她写了许多摄影的采访和文章。她在 Saul Leiter 基金会和 Catherine Leroy 基金会的董事会任职。
千叶康义 摄影师
在朝日新闻摄影部工作后,成为自由职业者并移居肯尼亚。在法国法新社巴西圣保罗和里约热内卢分社工作后,他自 2017 以来一直居住在内罗毕,担任该新闻社东非首席摄影师。他获得了无数奖项,包括 2020 年世界摄影大赛大奖和 2021 年新闻社年度摄影师(英国卫报)。
Alexandrov Klum 艺术家和环保主义者
Klum Iris (生于 1981) 和 Mattias (生于 1968) 是为瑞典和西班牙的艺术家二人组,名为 Alexandrov Klum。自 2016 年以来,他们的工作审视了当代社会问题,重点关注自然、人类及其环境之间的复杂关系。Alexandrov Klum 创作了大型摄影、视频和声音装置。在概念艺术和纪实现实的交汇处创造了多媒体体验。
项目评选
● 申请人提报的项目根据以下维度(各占 20%)进行评选
● 项目预期与拍摄项目的相关性,申请人是否能落地执行。
● 提报项目是否能展示 GFX 无反中画幅的设备优势。
● 项目的创意性和独创性。
● 项目可执行性(包含项目可行性、总体预算规则、完成项目的可能性)
● 申请人履历、摄影经验与技巧。
GFX 全球挑战赛招募对象
欢迎愿意用影像叙事方式表达个性和情感的新生代创作者;重大、有意义的选题和体现文化传承理念的摄影家;用当代影像思考和实践的影像艺术家提报个人拍摄项目和全球摄影师同场竞技。
全球创作资助奖:
●在项目期间免费使用 GFX 系统相机机身和两款 GF 镜头
●富士胶片技术人员/产品专家的指导和技术支持
●10,000 美元创作赞助
区域创作资助奖:
●在项目期间免费使用 GFX 系统相机机身和两款 GF 镜头
●富士胶片技术人员/产品专家的指导和技术协助
●5,000 美元创作资助
GFX 全球挑战赛日程安排
●申请日期 2022 年 9 月 9 日(周五)至 11 月 30 日(周三)
下载申请表,填写提报项目详情。请以 PDF 文件形式提交。
●初选日期 2022 年 12 月 1 日(周四)至 2023 年 1 月 6 日(周五)
将在全球各赛区的富士胶片分公司筛选, 3 个地区的 15 部作品,总共将选择 45 个项目进行复试。选定的区域候选人将在 2023 年 1 月 13 日周五之前通过电子邮件联系,以安排在线面试。
●复试日期 2023 年 1 月 16 日(周一)至 2023 年 1 月 31 日(周二)
通过首轮初选的候选人将参加富士胶片在各个地区的在线面试。最终将选出 15 名决赛选手,每个赛区 5 名,晋级决赛。
●终评日期 2023 年 2 月 1 日(周三)至 2023 年 2 月 28 日(周二)
全球评委会将对每位候选人进行评审,5 名 “全球大奖” 获得者,10 名 “区域大奖”。获得者信息将于 2023 年 3 月公布。
报名网站:https://gfx-challenge-program.baiwei.org/
现在您只需提交项目拍摄计划即可申请,迈出实现创意的第一步吧!

Source: GFX 系列全球挑战项目 2022 赛季开启!等你来挑战!
4
Forex News 外汇新闻 / 两市融资余额减少71.99亿元
« Last post by LeandraLin on September 29, 2022, 01:02:53 AM »
两市融资余额减少71.99亿元

2022.09.29
            截至9月28日,上交所融资余额报7811.13亿元,较前一交易日减少41.27亿元;深交所融资余额报6828.83亿元,较前一交易日减少30.72亿元;两市合计14639.96亿元,较前一交易日减少71.99亿元。

Source: 两市融资余额减少71.99亿元
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الإمارات تطلق أول منصة رقمية للخصم المباشر لتحصيل المدفوعات الشهرية

أعلنت "دايركت ديبت سيستم" المتخصصة بالتكنولوجيا المالية اليوم الإطلاق الرسمي لمنصة "دايركت ديبت ماركت بليس" والتي تعتبر أول سوق إلكتروني شامل لخدمات الخصم المباشر في المنطقة...

Source: الإمارات تطلق أول منصة رقمية للخصم المباشر لتحصيل المدفوعات الشهرية
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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
« Last post by Stan NordFX on September 25, 2022, 07:48:46 AM »
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 26 - 30, 2022


EUR/USD: In Search of a New Bottom

Last week, all the attention of the markets was focused on the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which took place on September 21. The probability of another rate hike by 75 basis points (bp) had been estimated at 74%, and by 100 bps at 26%. The first forecast turned out to be correct: the rate was increased from 2.50% to 3.25%. But this was enough for the DXY dollar index to fly up and exceed 113.00 points, updating another 20-year high. Accordingly, as expected by the majority (75%) of experts, EUR/USD has renewed another 20-year low, reaching the bottom at 0.9667.

Russian President Vladimir Putin contributed to the weakening of the euro and the fall of the pair, announcing the mobilization of part of the military reserve to reinforce the Russian troops that invaded Ukraine. Mr. Putin also repeated the threat to use nuclear weapons, which further increased tension in the region. In addition, the heating season begins in Europe, and Russia continues to put pressure on it, using problems with energy supplies as a "weapon".

At the last meeting, the Fed gave the markets a clear hawkish signal about its next steps. It will continue its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, including reducing its balance sheet, and the interest rate will remain high in 2023. As for the current year, 2022, according to CME Group estimates, the probability that it will exceed 4.00% by the end of Q4 is almost 60%.

According to US Central bank officials, defeating inflation is now a priority. To implement it, the regulator is ready to accept the threat of a recession, including a drop in production and consumption, as well as problems in the labor market.

Investors fleeing risks on side with the dollar as a safe haven. US stock indices have been going down for the second week in a row. The S&P500 fell below its July lows, and the Dow Jones reached its June lowest values.

The last chord of the week for EUR/USD sounded at 0.9693. At the time of writing the review, Friday evening, September 23, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 55% of analysts say that the pair will continue to move south in the near future, while the remaining 45% expect a correction to the north. As for the trend indicators on D1, 100% is colored red, the picture is the same among the oscillators, while 25% signal that the pair is oversold.

The pair's immediate support is the September 23 low at 0.9667, with bears targeting 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 0.9700-0.9735, 0.9800-0.9825, 0.9900, the immediate task is to return to the range of 0.9950-1.0020, the next target area is 1.0130-1.0200.

We are in for a lot of macro-economic statistics this week. The week will be opened by data on GDP (Q3) and IFO business climate in Germany, which will be released on Monday September 26. Data from the US consumer market will be received the next day, and the US GDP (Q2) will become known on Thursday, September 29. Statistics on sales and the labor market in Germany, as well as on the consumer markets of the Eurozone (CPI) and the United States, will be published in turn on the last day of the five-day period and the month, September 30. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech this week on September 26, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on September 27.

GBP/USD: Back to the Past: Return to 1985

The Bank of England raised the pound rate by 50 bp up to 2.25% the day after the Fed meeting, on Thursday September 22. However, as expected, this did not help the British currency much. More precisely, given the current macroeconomic situation, it did not help at all. In just 10 days, from September 13 to 23, GBP/USD flew about 900 points, falling to its lowest level in 37 years. The bottom was found on Friday at 1.0838, which was in line with 1985 levels.

Disappointing economic data from the United Kingdom continues to weigh heavily on the pound. Business activity in the private sector continued to fall. The Preliminary Composite PMI, with a forecast of 49.0 points, actually fell from 49.6 to 48.4 over the month. In addition, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which speaks on behalf of 190,000 businesses, showed that the balance of retail sales fell to -20 in September from +37 in August.

According to the Bank of England's own forecasts, the country is close to a deep recession. And according to the estimates of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), the recession is already in full swing, and inflation will reach 14% by the end of the year. Next year also does not bode well: according to strategists at Goldman Sachs, inflation could reach 22% by the end of 2023.

To combat it, the Bank of England has moved to more aggressive rate hikes. But the tightening of monetary policy takes place simultaneously with an increase in budget spending. Moreover, the government will most likely not have enough of its own funds to pay businesses and households the announced partial compensation of electricity bills. Therefore, it will have to take large loans, which will not benefit the national currency either. (We have already reported that British energy regulator Ofgem announced that average annual bills will rise by 80% from October, and the number of households in fuel poverty could reach 12 million people in January).

The pair closed last week at 1.0867. But the range 1.0800-1.0838 is unlikely to become a strong enough support. Having broken it, the bears will rush to the historical low of 1985 of 1.0520, to which there are only about 300 points left. Given the pace of the fall of the pair, it can reach this goal in one to two weeks. Of course, a correction is not ruled out due to the oversold pound. If the pair turns north, it will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1000-1.1020, 1.1100, 1.1215, 1.1350, 1.1475, 1.1535, 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1710-1.1740. The return of the pair to the heights around 1.1800-1.2000 seems unlikely in the coming weeks.

Experts' forecast for the coming week looks quite unique: all 100% side with the British currency. As for the indicators on D1, all 100% point exactly in the opposite direction. However, 50% of the oscillators are in the deep oversold zone, which confirms experts' expectations regarding a correction to the north.

The event calendar can mark Friday, September 30, when UK GDP (Q2) data will be released.

USD/JPY: Miracle from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan



As we predicted, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) remained true to itself at its meeting on September 22 and kept its interest rate at a negative, ultra-dove level of -0.1%. However, we still have to admit our mistake. We wrote last week that the Japanese financial authorities should not expect a miracle. But a miracle did happen. As USD/JPY crept up to 146.00, the Treasury's seemingly steely nerves snapped and it ordered the BOJ to intervene in support of the yen.

As a result, the pair avalanched 550 pips, showing the most volatility since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Then the shock passed, the situation calmed down a bit, and the pair returned to the values of the beginning of the working week, ending it at the level of 143.30.

This pullback confirms some analysts' view that the yen's strength is unlikely to be long-term and that USD/JPY will return to storm the 146.00 high again. “In the absence of major changes in fundamentals or (unlikely) concerted action against the US dollar, the chances of a sustained rebound in the Japanese yen are limited,” Scotiabank macro strategists say. “The key issue here, of course, is the divergence in monetary policy settings between the US and Japan, which has caused the Japanese yen to plummet since the Fed first began raising interest rates in earnest in the spring.”

Scotiabank believes that markets are likely to retest the 146.00 level to test the resolve of the Bank of Japan. And the Japanese Central Bank will have to spend billions of USD to protect this level. Moreover, it may even ask the ECB, the Bank of England and the Fed to act as their agent outside of business hours in Tokyo. However, it is likely that the Bank of Japan will try to fight off the strong dollar alone.

Experts' median forecast for the near future is as follows. 45% of experts side with the bulls, 45% have taken the opposite position, the remaining 10% remain neutral. Oscillators on D1 have 40% on the green side, 10% on the red side, and 50% are colored neutral gray. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 9 to 1 in favor of the green ones.

The nearest resistance for the pair, as in the last two weeks, is 143.75. The objectives of bulls No. 1 and No. 2 are to gain a foothold above 145.00 and then storm the height of 146.00. This is followed by 146.78, the level reached before the joint actions of Japan and the US to support the yen in 1998. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 143.00, 142.60, 142.00-142.20, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week. However, there are two events that are of particular interest in the light of the decision to intervene. A press conference by BOJ Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled for Monday, September 26, and the report on the last meeting of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee will be published on Wednesday, September 28. In both cases, the market will try to understand how serious the regulator is about supporting its national currency.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bearish Sentiment Persists

So is bitcoin digital gold after all? According to a survey conducted by Paxos among regular buyers of physical gold, almost a third of respondents consider BTC as the best alternative to the precious metal. However, judging by how both of these assets have been behaving lately, the best alternative for both of them is the US dollar. Physical gold peaked at $2,070 on March 08, 2022, after which it went down, having lost about 20% of its value so far. As for its digital counterpart, the all-time high of $67,273 occurred on November 10, 2021, and the loss is now approximately 71%. If we compare these figures, it turns out that XAU/USD was falling by 0.10% daily, while BTC/USD was falling twice as fast, by 0.22% per day. Draw your own conclusions. We only note that it is not gold and bitcoin that are to blame for what is happening, but the gaining strength of the dollar, which is growing along with the increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve. So, another rate hike led to a fall in cryptocurrency quotes last week. Gold, on the other hand, although made a couple of jumps, returned to its previous price this time. After all, unlike BTC, it is a protective asset, not a risky one. Although, it is also receding step by step under the pressure of the American currency.

When it comes to precious metals, few people use derogatory epithets. Even though their price is falling as well. But in relation to cryptocurrencies, as much as you like. So, for example, the philosopher and author of the cult work "The Black Swan" Nassim Taleb called bitcoin a "tumor" that appeared due to the wrong policy of the Fed. “I believe we had 15 years […] of Disneyland which basically destroyed the economic structure. The Fed missed the mark by cutting interest rates too much. Zero interest for a long period of time damages the economy, bubbles are created, tumors like bitcoin are created,” he said, calling for a return to “normal economic life.”

Well-known bitcoin investor and analyst Willy Woo agrees that it is the US government that is now running the “ship”. True, on the contrary, he would like this “tumor” to be larger, but its growth is held back for political reasons. As he noted, it is currently theoretically possible to sell unlimited amounts of BTC due to futures contracts, although in reality the offer is limited to 21 million coins. “Futures markets can control the BTC rate,” the investor says. “CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has set up a kind of bitcoin stabilizing speculation where you can play in US dollars. Wall Street hedge funds loved it. What are the current restrictions on the sale of bitcoin? None, because fiat has no restrictions.”

Willy Woo believes that due to the structure of the futures market, major players can suppress BTC by exerting pressure in the form of selling an asset: “Bitcoin should not be killed. Just the ability to short BTC is enough to suppress the exchange rate. Bitcoin will not be able to make a global impact without a high price. The SEC's policy is now aimed at increasing liquidity and the predominance of futures by approving futures ETFs, while spot ETFs are being rejected. Everything has turned into a political game now,” the investor sighs sadly.

DataDash analyst and founder Nicholas Merten expects the US Central bank to continue raising interest rates until it achieves a solid victory over inflation. And this, in turn, will push the quotes of digital assets further down. According to Merten, this is influenced not only by macroeconomic, but also by technical factors.

Thus, BTC's 200-week moving average (WMA) has become a resistance level, not a support level. Bitcoin has almost always remained above this indicator throughout its existence, with rare breakdowns to the downside, marking the bottom of the cycle. Currently, the 200-week WMA is around $23,250, and bitcoin is failing to rise above this level.

Merten concluded that BTC's recent exchange rate movement could signal the end of a 10-year bull market, and it can no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and stocks. According to the analyst, the next bottom of BTC could be around $14,000, which would mean an 80% correction from the all-time high, as in the case of previous bear markets. “$14,000 is a potential low at the moment. However, investors should consider an even sharper fall to $10,000.”

An analyst with the nickname DonAlt agrees with Merten, he believes that BTC will update the 2022 lows amid weak stock market performance. DonAlt predicts the coin will fall below the $18,000-20,000 range and form a new cycle low. “It often happens with such ranges that after it is broken, an increase occurs. And now there is a good chance to break through the $18,000-20,000 range and then form a bullish momentum. The only question is how low bitcoin can go because it can easily go all the way to $15,000.” “My forecast is based on the S&P 500 and looks terrible,” DonAlt writes. “It looks like this index is in for a big drop.”

We paid a lot of attention to the main competitor of bitcoin, ethereum, in the previous review. This was due to a very important event: the global update The Merge took place in the ETH network on September 15, including the transition of the altcoin from the Proof-of-Work protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). Ethereum has fallen by about 20% since then. And we have repeatedly warned about this possibility, citing the opinions of various experts.

The coin’s price had roughly doubled from its yearly lows in June, by far outpacing bitcoin’s rise, ahead of the network upgrade. And Vijay Ayyar, vice president of the Luno crypto exchange, believes that the Merger had already been “factored into the price” of ETH, and “the actual event has become a “news selling” situation. According to Ayyar, traders are now moving investments from ethereum and other altcoins back to bitcoin, Ayyar said, “as bitcoin is expected to do better in a few months.” At the same time, the specialist believes that any “change in the macroeconomic environment in terms of inflation or unexpected interest rates” could lead BTC to fall below $18,000, and the coin will test levels up to $14,000.

However, inflation and rising rates are not the only factors that may affect the quotes of digital assets. So now investors are wondering if ethereum's regulatory status could change after the Merge. The reason for concern was the words of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This official said last week that cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake model that applies to ETH can be classified as securities. Thus, these assets fall under the competence of the regulatory authorities. Gensler did not specifically name ethereum, but it is clear that in this case the coin will attract the close attention of the SEC, and it is unknown how this may end. For example, DataDash's Nicholas Merten expects the asset to retest the $800-$1,000 range, although he doesn't rule out a move lower.

At the time of this writing (Friday evening, September 23), bitcoin and ethereum have partially recouped the fall caused by the Fed's decision. BTC/USDis trading at $18,900 ( ETH/USD is $1,320). The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.929 trillion ($0.959 trillion a week ago). Like seven days ago, Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 20 points and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Promote Online Course / Books/ Learning Material / Re: Symphonie Trader System - Forex Trading System
« Last post by depende on September 23, 2022, 05:17:12 PM »
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Wall Street’s top analysts pick these stocks as safe bets right now

TipRanks analyst ranking service pinpoints Wall Street's best-performing stocks, McDonald's and Workday.
Source: Wall Street’s top analysts pick these stocks as safe bets right now
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TH: 0.1560 THB = 1 PKR 2022-09-21 Bank of Thailand Selling Rate

0.1560 Thai Baht = 1 PKR

Source: TH: 0.1560 THB = 1 PKR 2022-09-21 Bank of Thailand Selling Rate

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