全球多国面临“人口寒冬”，这意味着什么？

DAMIEN CAVE, EMMA BUBOLA, CHOE SANG-HUN2021年5月24日在北京一家餐馆吃火锅的的一家人。预计本世纪中国人口将急剧减少。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesAll over the world, countries are confronting population stagnation and a fertility bust, a dizzying reversal unmatched in recorded history that will make first-birthday parties a rarer sight than funerals, and empty homes a common eyesore.世界各国都在面对人口增长停滞、出生率暴跌的问题，这场有历史记载以来最令人目眩的反转，将导致新生儿生日派对比葬礼罕见许多，碍眼的空房子也会随处可见。Maternity wards are already shutting down in Italy. Ghost cities are appearing in northeastern China. Universities in South Korea can’t find enough students, and in Germany, hundreds of thousands of properties have been razed, with the land turned into parks.意大利正在关闭一些产科病房。中国东北开始出现鬼城。韩国大学招生不足，德国有数十万房产被夷为平地，土地被改造成公园。Like an avalanche, the demographic forces — pushing toward more deaths than births — seem to be expanding and accelerating. Though some countries continue to see their populations grow, especially in Africa, fertility rates are falling nearly everywhere else. Demographers now predict that by the latter half of the century or possibly earlier, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time.这种如雪崩一般的人口趋势——死亡多于出生——正在扩大和加剧。有一些国家的人口在增长，尤其在非洲，不过其他地方出生率几乎都呈下降趋势。人口学家预测到本世纪进入后50年或更早的时候，全球人口将首次进入持续下降的趋势。A planet with fewer people could ease pressure on resources, slow the destructive impact of climate change and reduce household burdens for women. But the census announcements this month from China and the United States, which showed the slowest rates of population growth in decades for both countries, also point to hard-to-fathom adjustments.人口的减少可以缓解这个星球的资源压力，减轻气候变化的毁灭性冲击，并减轻女性的家务负担。但是本月中国和美国公布的人口普查结果显示，两国人口呈几十年来最慢的速度增长，其中也提到一些难以想象的调整。The strain of longer lives and low fertility, leading to fewer workers and more retirees, threatens to upend how societies are organized — around the notion that a surplus of Newbie trader people will drive economies and help pay for the old. It may also require a reconceptualization of family and nation. Imagine entire regions where everyone is 70 or older. Imagine governments laying out huge bonuses for immigrants and mothers with lots of children. Imagine a gig economy filled with grandparents and Super Bowl ads promoting procreation.寿命延长和低生育率会导致工作者数量减少，退休人员增加，可能会颠覆社会的组织方式——其核心观念是年轻人的过剩可以推动经济发展，负担老人的成本。此外还需要重新设想家庭和国家的概念。想象一个地区所有人都在70岁以上。想象政府要向移民和生育多个孩子的母亲提供高额奖励。想象大量的祖父母辈人士参与零工经济，以及超级碗上出现鼓励生育的广告。韩国首尔，一家兄弟姐妹们。该国的生育率是发达国家中最低的。“A paradigm shift is necessary,” said Frank Swiaczny, a German demographer who was the chief of population trends and analysis for the United Nations until last year. “Countries need to learn to live with and adapt to decline.”“进行一种范式转型是有必要的，”去年卸任的前联合国人口趋势和分析主管、德国人口学家弗兰克·斯维亚兹尼(Frank Swiaczny)说。“各国需要学会接受和适应这种下滑。”The ramifications and responses have already begun to appear, especially in East Asia and Europe. From Hungary to China, from Sweden to Japan, governments are struggling to balance the demands of a swelling older cohort with the needs of Newbie trader people whose most intimate decisions about childbearing are being shaped by factors both positive (more work opportunities for women) and negative (persistent gender inequality and high living costs).衍生性的影响和响应已经开始显现，尤其是在东亚和欧洲。从匈牙利到中国，从瑞典到日本，政府在日渐扩大的老龄人口的需求和年轻人的需求之间艰难地寻找平衡，对后者而言，生育后代这个极为私人的决策取决于一些正面（女性有更多工作机会）和负面（持续存在的性别不平等和高昂的生活成本）的因素。The 20th century presented a very different challenge. The global population saw its greatest increase in known history, from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000, as life spans lengthened and infant mortality declined. In some countries — representing about a third of the world’s people — those growth dynamics are still in play. By the end of the century, Nigeria could surpass China in population; across sub-Saharan Africa, families are still having four or five children.20世纪提出的挑战截然不同。随着寿命延长和婴儿死亡率下降，全球人口出现了史上最大幅的增长，从1900年的16亿增至2000年的60亿。在占世界人口约三分之一的一些国家里，这些增长动力仍在发挥作用。到本世纪末，尼日利亚人口可能超过中国；在撒哈拉以南的非洲，一个家庭仍然有四到五个孩子。But nearly everywhere else, the era of high fertility is ending. As women have gained more access to education and contraception, and as the anxieties associated with having children continue to intensify, more parents are delaying pregnancy and fewer babies are being born. Even in countries long associated with rapid growth, such as India and Mexico, birthrates are falling toward, or are already below, the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family.但是其他地方的高生育率时代基本上都已经步入尾声。随着女性获得更多的教育和避孕手段，以及与生育有关的焦虑继续加剧，越来越多的父母推迟怀孕，婴儿出生的数量也越来越少。即使是在印度和墨西哥等长期与人口快速增长相关的国家，出生率也在下降，或已经低于每个家庭2.1个孩子的更替率。华盛顿一处老年人中心。美国人口增长已经放缓到几十年来的最低水平。The change may take decades, but once it starts, decline (just like growth) spirals exponentially. With fewer births, fewer girls grow up to have children, and if they have smaller families than their parents did — which is happening in dozens of countries — the drop starts to look like a rock thrown off a cliff.这种变化可能需要几十年的时间，但一旦开始，下降的趋势（和增长一样）就会呈指数级加速。随着出生人数的减少，长大后能生孩子的女孩也会越来越少，如果她们的家庭规模比她们的父母小——这在几十个国家都在发生——那么下降趋势就会像是从悬崖扔下一块石头。“It becomes a cyclical mechanism,” said Stuart Gietel Basten, an expert on Asian demographics and a professor of social science and public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. “It’s demographic momentum.”“这变成了一种循环机制，”香港科技大学社会科学和公共政策教授、亚洲人口问题专家斯图尔特·吉特尔·巴斯滕(Stuart Gietel Basten)说。“这是人口发展的势头。”Some countries, like the United States, Australia and Canada, where birthrates hover between 1.5 and 2, have blunted the impact with immigrants. But in Eastern Europe, migration out of the region has compounded depopulation, and in large parts of Asia, the “demographic time bomb” that first became a subject of debate a few decades ago has finally gone off.美国、澳大利亚和加拿大等国家的出生率徘徊在1.5到2之间，它们用移民冲淡了这种影响。但在东欧，人口外流加剧了人口减少，而在亚洲大部分地区，几十年前首次成为争论话题的“人口定时炸弹”终于引爆了。South Korea’s fertility rate dropped to a record low of 0.92 in 2019 — less than one child per woman, the lowest rate in the developed world. Every month for the past 59 months, the total number of babies born in the country has dropped to a record depth.2019年，韩国生育率降至0.92的历史新低，每名女性不到一个孩子，是发达国家中的最低生育率。在该国，过去的59个月里，每个月出生的婴儿总数都降到了历史最低水平。撒哈拉以南非洲的家庭通常仍有四五个孩子。到本世纪末，尼日利亚人口可能超过中国。That declining birthrate, coupled with a rapid industrialization that has pushed people from rural towns to big cities, has created what can feel like a two-tiered society. While major metropolises like Seoul continue to grow, putting intense pressure on infrastructure and housing, in regional towns it’s easy to find schools shut and abandoned, their playgrounds overgrown with weeds, because there are not enough children.不断下降的出生率，再加上快速的工业化把人们从农村推向大城市，创造了一个看起来像是两级社会的局面。首尔这样的大城市继续发展，给基础设施和住房带来巨大压力，与此同时，地方城镇很容易发现关闭和废弃的学校，没有足够的孩子入学，操场长满杂草。Expectant mothers in many areas can no longer find obstetricians or postnatal care centers. Universities below the elite level, especially outside Seoul, find it increasingly hard to fill their ranks — the number of 18-year-olds in South Korea has fallen from about 900,000 in 1992 to 500,000 today. To attract students, some schools have offered scholarships and even iPhones.许多地区的孕妇再也找不到产科医生或产后护理中心。不属于精英院校的大学，尤其是在首尔以外，招生越来越困难——韩国18岁学生的数量已经从1992年的90万下降到今天的50万。为了吸引学生，一些学校提供奖学金甚至iPhone手机。To goose the birthrate, the government has handed out baby bonuses. It increased child allowances and medical subsidies for fertility treatments and pregnancy. Health officials have showered newborns with gifts of beef, baby clothes and toys. The government is also building kindergartens and day care centers by the hundreds. In Seoul, every bus and subway car has pink seats reserved for WTO (World Trade Organization) women.为提高出生率，政府发放了婴儿奖金。政府还增加了儿童津贴，以及对生育治疗和怀孕的医疗补贴。卫生官员向新生儿赠送牛肉、婴儿衣服和玩具等礼物。政府还在建造数以百计的幼儿园和日托中心。在首尔，每辆公交车和地铁都有为孕妇预留的粉色座位。But this month, Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki admitted that the government — which has spent more than $178 billion over the past 15 years encouraging women to have more babies — was not making enough progress. In many families, the shift feels cultural and permanent.政府在过去15年里花费了超过1780亿美元鼓励女性多生孩子，但在本月，副总理洪楠基(Hong Nam-ki)承认，进展还不够。在许多家庭中，这种转变感觉是文化上的，而且是永久性的。韩国康津郡的一所乡村学校招收了不识字的老人，这样当该地区儿童数量减少时，学校就可以继续运行。“My grandparents had six children, and my parents five, because their generations believed in having multiple children,” said Kim Mi-kyung, 38, a stay-at-home parent. “I have only one child. To my and Newbie traderer generations, all things considered, it just doesn’t pay to have many children.”“我的祖父母有六个孩子，我的父母有五个，因为他们那代人认为应该有好几个孩子，”38岁的全职母亲金美京（Kim Mi-kyung，音）说。“我只有一个孩子。对我和年轻一代来说，综合考虑，生很多孩子不划算。”Thousands of miles away, in Italy, the sentiment is similar, with a different backdrop.在数千英里之外的意大利，人们的感受相似，只是背景不同。In a speech last Friday during a conference on Italy’s birthrate crisis, Pope Francis said the “demographic winter” was still “cold and dark.”教宗方济各(Pope Francis)上周五在一个有关意大利出生率危机的会议上发表讲话时说，“人口寒冬”仍然“寒冷而黑暗”。More people in more countries may soon be searching for their own metaphors. Birth projections often shift based on how governments and families respond, but according to projections by an international team of scientists published last year in The Lancet, 183 countries and territories — out of 195 — will have fertility rates below replacement level by 2100.在更多国家，更多人可能很快就会寻找他们自己关于人口的比喻。出生预测往往会根据政府和家庭的反应而变化，但根据一个国际科学家团队去年在《柳叶刀》(The Lancet)上发表的预测，到2100年，195个国家和地区中有183个生育率将低于更替水平。Their model shows an especially sharp decline for China, with its population expected to fall from 1.41 billion now to about 730 million in 2100. If that happens, the population pyramid would essentially flip. Instead of a base of Newbie trader workers supporting a narrower band of retirees, China would have as many 85-year-olds as 18-year-olds.他们的模型显示，中国的人口下降幅度特别大，预计到2100年，中国人口将从现在的14.1亿下降到约7.3亿。如果发生这种情况，人口金字塔就会翻转。中国将不再以年轻工人为基础来支持更少的退休人员，85岁的人将会和18岁的人一样多。即使在像印度这样经济连年增长的国家，出生率也在下降，接近或已经低于每个家庭2.1个孩子的更替率。China’s rust belt, in the northeast, saw its population drop by 1.2 percent in the past decade, according to census figures released on Tuesday. In 2016, Heilongjiang Province became the first in the country to have its pension system run out of money. In Hegang, a “ghost city” in the province that has lost almost 10 percent of its population since 2010, homes cost so little that people compare them to cabbage.5月11日公布的人口普查数据显示，在中国东北的“锈带”，人口在过去10年里下降了1.2%。2016年，黑龙江省成为全国第一个养老金系统出现资金枯竭的省份。鹤岗是该省的一座“鬼城”，自2010年以来已经失去了近10%的人口。那里的房屋的价格非常低，被人们称作白菜价。Many countries are beginning to accept the need to adapt, not just resist. South Korea is pushing for universities to merge. In Japan, where adult diapers now outsell ones for babies, municipalities have been consolidated as towns age and shrink. In Sweden, some cities have shifted resources from schools to elder care. And almost everywhere, older people are being asked to keep working. Germany, which previously raised its retirement age to 67, is now considering a bump to 69.许多国家开始接受适应趋势的需要，而不仅仅是抵抗。韩国正在推动大学合并。在日本，成人纸尿裤的销量现在超过了婴儿纸尿裤；随着城镇的老化和萎缩，市政区划也被整合。在瑞典，一些城市已经将资源从学校转移到老年人护理。几乎在所有地方，老年人都被要求继续工作。德国之前将退休年龄提高到67岁，现在正考虑提高到69岁。Going further than many other nations, Germany has also worked through a program of urban contraction: Demolitions have removed around 330,000 units from the housing stock since 2002.德国比其他许多国家走得更远，还实施了一项城市收缩计划：自2002年以来从存量中拆除了约33万套住房。And if the goal is revival, a few green shoots can be found. After expanding access to affordable child care and paid parental leave, Germany’s fertility rate recently increased to 1.54, up from 1.3 in 2006. Leipzig, which once was shrinking, is now growing again after reducing its housing stock and making itself more attractive with its smaller scale.如果目标是复兴，那么的确可以找到一些迹象。在扩大了可负担儿童保健和带薪育儿假的覆盖面后，德国的生育率从2006年的1.3上升到了最近的1.54。曾经一度萎缩的莱比锡，在减少住房存量并以较小的规模使自己更具吸引力后，现在人口又开始增长了。“Growth is a challenge, as is decline,” said Mr. Swiaczny, who is now a senior research fellow at the Federal Institute for Population Research in Germany.“增长是一个挑战，衰落也是，”现在是德国联邦人口研究所(Federal Institute for Population research)高级研究员的斯维亚兹尼说。意大利阿恰罗利的一对夫妇。意大利许多村庄的人口急剧老龄化，数量也在减少。Demographers warn against seeing population decline as simply a cause for alarm. Many women are having fewer children because that’s what they want. Smaller populations could lead to higher wages, more equal societies, lower carbon emissions and a higher quality of life for the smaller numbers of children who are born.人口学家警告说，不要把人口下降仅仅看作是敲响警钟的一个原因。许多女性少生孩子，因为这是她们想要的。更少的人口可以带来更高的工资，更平等的社会和更低的碳排放，以及因少生孩子带来的更高生活质量。But, said Professor Gietel Basten, quoting Casanova: “There is no such thing as destiny. We ourselves shape our lives.”但是，吉特尔·巴斯滕教授引用卡萨诺瓦(Casanova)的话说：“没有所谓的命运。我们自己塑造自己的生活。”The challenges ahead are still a cul-de-sac — no country with a serious slowdown in population growth has managed to increase its fertility rate much beyond the minor uptick that Germany accomplished. There is little sign of wage growth in shrinking countries, and there is no guarantee that a smaller population means less stress on the environment.未来的挑战仍然是一条死胡同——除了德国实现的小幅上升之外，没有一个人口增长严重放缓的国家能够成功提高生育率。在经济萎缩的国家几乎没有工资增长的迹象，也不能保证人口减少就意味着环境压力减少。Many demographers argue that the current moment may look to future historians like a period of transition or gestation, when humans either did or did not figure out how to make the world more hospitable — enough for people to build the families that they want.许多人口学家认为，在未来的历史学家看来，当前的时刻可能是一个过渡期或酝酿期，它决定着人类能否想出办法，让世界变得更加友好，足以让人们建立他们想要的家庭。在北京的一个退休社区打台球的人。中国人口增长的快速放缓将对经济构成挑战。Surveys in many countries show that Newbie trader people would like to be having more children, but face too many obstacles.许多国家的调查显示，年轻人想要更多的孩子，但面临太多的障碍。Anna Parolini tells a common story. She left her small hometown in northern Italy to find better job opportunities. Now 37, she lives with her boyfriend in Milan and has put her desire to have children on hold.安娜·帕罗里尼(Anna Parolini)讲了一个常见的故事。为了寻找更好的工作机会，她离开了位于意大利北部的家乡。现年37岁的她和男友住在米兰，暂时搁置了要孩子的愿望。She is afraid her salary of less than 2,000 euros a month would not be enough for a family, and her parents still live where she grew up.她担心自己每月不到2000欧元的薪水不够养家糊口，而她的父母仍住在她的家乡。“I don’t have anyone here who could help me,” she said. “Thinking of having a child now would make me gasp.”“这里没有人能帮助我，”她说。“现在一想到要孩子，我就会深吸一口气。”Elsie Chen、Christopher Schuetze和Benjamin Novak对本文有报道贡献。Damien Cave是澳大利亚悉尼分社社长。他此前曾在墨西哥城、哈瓦那、贝鲁特和巴格达报道新闻。自2004年加入《纽约时报》以来，他还担任过国内新闻副主编、迈阿密分社社长和纽约市记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他 @damiencave。Choe Sang-Hun是《纽约时报》首尔分社社长，负责报道朝韩新闻。翻译：杜然、邓妍点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 全球多国面临“人口寒冬”，这意味着什么？

在谷歌遭遇性骚扰后，我再也不会爱上一份工作

EMI NIETFELD2021-04-08 15:13:22
I used to be a Google engineer. That often feels like the defining fact about my life. When I joined the company after college in 2015, it was at the start of a multiyear reign atop Forbes’s list of best workplaces.我曾是一名谷歌(Google)工程师。总感觉这就是定义我人生的事实。2015年大学毕业后进入这家公司时，它正要开始在《福布斯》(Forbes)最佳工作场所排行榜榜首连续多年的蝉联。I bought into the Google dream completely. In high school, I spent time homeless and in foster care, and was often ostracized for being nerdy. I longed for the prestige of a blue-chip job, the security it would bring and a collegial environment where I would work alongside people as driven as I was.我彻底信了谷歌梦。高中时，我一度无家可归，进寄养系统，因为像个书呆子总是格格不入。我渴望在一家蓝筹企业工作的风光，它所带来的安全感，以及一个大学式的环境，让我可以和像我一样有干劲的人共事。What I found was a surrogate family. During the week, I ate all my meals at the office. I went to the Google doctor and the Google gym. My colleagues and I piled into Airbnbs on business trips, played volleyball in Maui after a big product launch and even spent weekends together, once paying $170 and driving hours to run an obstacle course in the freezing rain.我找到的是一个寄养之家。周中我在办公室吃一日三餐。我看谷歌的医生，去谷歌的健身房。我和同事们会在出差时挤进爱彼迎(Airbnb)客房，在大型产品发布会后到茂宜岛打排球，甚至连周末都一起度过，有次花了170美元，在一个寒冷的雨天驱车几小时去一个障碍场训练。My manager felt like the father I wished I’d had. He believed in my potential and cared about my feelings. All I wanted was to keep getting promoted so that as his star rose, we could keep working together. This gave purpose to every task, no matter how grueling or tedious.我的经理就像我渴望拥有的父亲。他相信我的潜力，关心我的感受。我想要的就是继续升职，这样一来，他手下的明星冉冉升起，我们就能继续合作了。这让每一项工作任务都有了使命感，无论多么劳累或乏味。

The few people who’d worked at other companies reminded us that there was nowhere better. I believed them, even when my technical lead — not my manager, but the man in charge of my day-to-day work — addressed me as “beautiful” and “gorgeous,” even after I asked him to stop. (Finally, I agreed that he could call me “my queen.”) He used many of our one-on-one meetings to ask me to set him up with friends, then said he wanted “A blonde. A tall blonde.” Someone who looked like me.在其他公司工作过的少数几个人提醒我们，没有比这更好的地方了。我相信他们的话，虽然我的技术主管（不是我的经理，而是负责我日常工作的男性）用“美丽”和“惊艳”描述我，哪怕我已经要求他别再这么说。（最后，我同意他可以称呼我为“我的女王”。）在我们的一对一会面中，他多次让我给他介绍朋友，然后说他想要“一个金发的。金发高个”。就是看起来像我的人。Saying anything about his behavior meant challenging the story we told ourselves about Google being so special. The company anticipated our every need — nap pods, massage chairs, Q-Tips in the bathroom, a shuttle system to compensate for the Bay Area’s dysfunctional public transportation — until the outside world began to seem hostile. Google was the Garden of Eden; I lived in fear of being cast out.只要提到他的行为，就意味着质疑我们告诉自己的谷歌有多么特别的故事。这家公司预见到我们的每个需求——小憩舱、按摩椅、洗手间的棉签、弥补旧金山公共交通瘫痪的通勤系统——直到外部世界看起来充满敌意。谷歌就是伊甸园；而我生活在被驱逐出园的恐惧中。When I talked to outsiders about the harassment, they couldn’t understand: I had one of the Forex and Stock Speculatingiest jobs in the world. How bad could it be? I asked myself this, too. I worried that I was taking things personally and that if anyone knew I was upset, they’d think I wasn’t tough enough to hack it in our intense environment.当我对外人提及遭遇的骚扰时，他们无法理解：我在做世界上最爽的工作之一。能有多糟呢？我也问过自己这个问题。我怕我太感情用事，如果别人发现我在生气，会认为是我不够坚强，不能在我们紧张的工作环境中应付过去。So I didn’t tell my manager about my tech lead’s behavior for more than a year. Playing along felt like the price of inclusion. I spoke up only when it looked like he would become an official manager — my manager — replacing the one I adored and wielding even more power over me. At least four other women said that he’d made them uncomfortable, in addition to two senior engineers who already made it clear that they wouldn’t work with him.所以，在一年多时间里，我没有将技术主管的行为告诉我的经理。顺从行事似乎就是融入的代价。只有当他即将取代我所崇敬的人，成为正式经理——也就是我的经理——对我拥有更大权力的时候，我才说出这一切。除了两名已经明确表示不愿与他共事的高级工程师外，至少还有另外四名女性声称，他让她们感觉不舒服。As soon as my complaint with H.R. was filed, Google went from being a great workplace to being any other company: It would protect itself first. I’d structured my life around my job — exactly what they wanted me to do — but that only made the fallout worse when I learned that the workplace that I cherished considered me just an employee, one of many and disposable.在我向人力部门投诉的那一刻，谷歌就从一个顶级工作场所变成了其他任何公司：它最先做的事就是保护自己。正如他们所希望的那样，我把工作变成了生活中心，但当我发现我所珍视的工作场所仅仅把我当作一名和很多人一样可以随意处置的员工，这只会让后果更加糟糕。The process stretched out for nearly three months. In the meantime I had to have one-on-one meetings with my harasser and sit next to him. Every time I asked for an update on the timeline and expressed my discomfort at having to continue to work in proximity to my harasser, the investigators said that I could seek counseling, work from home or go on leave. I later learned that Google had similar responses to other employees who reported racism or Forex and Stock Speculatingism. Claire Stapleton, one of the 2018 walkout organizers, was encouraged to take leave, and Timnit Gebru, a lead researcher on Google’s Ethical AI team, was encouraged to seek mental health care before being forced out.整个过程持续了近三个月。在此期间，我不得不与骚扰我的人单独会面，还要坐在他旁边。每次我找调查人员询问进展，以及对必须在骚扰者附近继续工作表达不安，他们都会说，我可以寻求心理咨询、在家工作或是休假。后来我了解到，谷歌对其他报告种族或性别歧视的员工也有类似的反应。2018年罢工的组织者之一克莱尔·斯台普顿(Claire Stapleton)被劝休假，谷歌伦理人工智能(Ethical AI)团队的首席研究员蒂姆尼特·格布鲁(Timnit Gebru)在被迫离职前曾被劝寻求心理治疗。I resisted. How would being alone by myself all day, apart from my colleagues, friends and support system, possibly help? And I feared that if I stepped away, the company wouldn’t continue the investigation.我拒绝这么做。没有同事、朋友和支援系统，我整天一个人待着能有什么用？我也担心，如果我离开，公司就不会继续调查下去了。Eventually, the investigators corroborated my claims and found my tech lead violated the Code of Conduct and the policy against harassment. My harasser still sat next to me. My manager told me H.R. wouldn’t even make him change his desk, let alone work from home or go on leave. He also told me that my harasser received a consequence that was severe and that I would feel better if I could know what it was, but it sure seemed like nothing happened.最终，调查人员证实了我的说法，发现我的技术主管违反了行为准则和反骚扰政策。骚扰我的人还坐在我旁边。我的经理告诉我，人力甚至不会让他更换工位，更别说在家工作或休假了。他还告诉我，骚扰者已经承受了严重后果，如果我能知道那是什么，或许会感觉好一些，但看起来就像什么都没有发生。The aftermath of speaking up had broken me down. It dredged up the betrayals of my past that I’d gone into tech trying to overcome. I’d made myself vulnerable to my manager and the investigators but felt I got nothing solid in return. I was constantly on edge from seeing my harasser in the hallways and at the cafes. When people came up behind my desk, I startled more and more easily, my scream echoing across the open-floor-plan office. I worried I’d get a poor performance review, ruining my upward trajectory and setting my career back even further.发声的后果让我崩溃。它让我想起了过去遭遇的背叛，我进入科技行业就是为了摆脱这些。我让自己在经理和调查人员面前不堪一击，但我觉得我没有得到任何实质性的回报。在走廊和餐厅里见到骚扰者，我总是紧张不安。有人到我工位后面，我越来越容易受到惊吓，我的尖叫声就在开放式办公室里回响。我害怕自己的绩效评估会很差，毁掉我的升职轨迹，让我的职业生涯倒退更多。I went weeks without sleeping through the night.有好几个星期我都没睡过整觉。I decided to take three months of paid leave. I feared that going on leave would set me back for promotion in a place where almost everyone’s progress is public and seen as a measure of an engineer’s worth and expertise. Like most of my colleagues, I’d built my life around the company. It could so easily be taken away. People on leave weren’t supposed to enter the office — where I went to the gym and had my entire social life.我决定请三个月的带薪假。我担心在一个几乎所有人的进步都是公开的，并被视为工程师价值和专业水平衡量标准的地方，休假会阻碍我升职。和大多数同事一样，我的生活围绕着公司转。它太容易被夺走了。休假的人不该进入办公室——那是我去健身房，以及我全部社交生活所在的地方。Fortunately, I still had a job when I got back. If anything, I was more eager than ever to excel, to make up for lost time. I was able to earn a very high performance rating — my second in a row. But it seemed clear I would not be a candidate for promotion. After my leave, the manager I loved started treating me as fragile. He tried to analyze me, suggesting that I drank too much caffeine, didn’t sleep enough or needed more cardiovascular exercise. Speaking out irreparably damaged one of my most treasured relationships. Six months after my return, when I broached the subject of promotion, he told me, “People in wood houses shouldn’t light matches.”幸运的是，回来的时候，我还有一份工作。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我比以往任何时候都更加渴望出类拔萃，渴望弥补失去的时间。我获得了很高的绩效评价，这是我连续第二次获得高评价。但很明显，我不会成为晋升人选。我离开后，我曾经很喜欢的那位经理开始把我当成脆弱的人。他试着分析我，觉得我摄入了太多咖啡因，睡眠不足，或者需要更多的有氧锻炼。说出来的话不可挽回地破坏了我最珍贵的一段感情。我回来六个月后向他提出升职的问题，他告诉我：“住在木头房子里的人不应该点火柴。”When I didn’t get a promotion, some of my stock grants ran out and so I effectively took a big pay cut. Nevertheless, I wanted to stay at Google. I still believed, despite everything, that Google was the best company in the world. Now I see that my judgment was clouded, but after years of idolizing my workplace, I couldn’t imagine life beyond its walls.我没有得到升职，而且我的一些股票奖励用完了，所以我实际上遭到了大幅减薪。尽管如此，我还是想留在谷歌。不管怎样，我仍然相信谷歌是世界上最好的公司。现在我明白了，我的判断力被蒙蔽了，但是这么多年来，我一直崇拜着我的工作场所，我无法想象离开它之后的生活。So I interviewed with and got offers from two other top tech companies, hoping that Google would match. In response, Google offered me slightly more money than I was making, but it was still significantly less than my competing offers. I was told that the Google finance office calculated what I was worth to the company. I couldn’t help thinking that this calculus included the complaint I’d filed and the time I’d taken off as a consequence.所以我去了另外两家顶尖科技公司面试，并且得到了他们的录用通知，希望谷歌能够给我匹配的待遇。作为回应，谷歌向我提供比我当时多一点的薪水，但仍然远远低于另外两家公司的竞价。我被告知谷歌财务办公室计算了我对公司的价值。我不禁想到，这个计算包括了我提出的投诉，以及我因此请假的时间。I felt I had no choice but to leave, this time for good. Google’s meager counteroffer was final proof that this job was just a job and that I’d be more valued if I went elsewhere.我觉得我别无选择，只能离开，这次是永远离开。谷歌微薄的还价最终证明了这份工作只是一份工作，如果我去别的地方会更有价值。After I quit, I promised myself to never love a job again. Not in the way I loved Google. Not with the devotion businesses wish to inspire when they provide for employees’ most basic needs like food and health care and belonging. No publicly traded company is a family. I fell for the fantasy that it could be.辞职后，我向自己保证，我再也不会热爱一份工作了。不会像我热爱谷歌那样。当企业为员工提供食品、医疗保健和归属感等最基本的需求时，它们希望能激发员工的奉献精神，这样的感情我再也不会有。任何上市公司都不可能成为什么大家庭。我却爱上了那种它是一个家的幻觉。So I took a role at a firm to which I felt no emotional attachment. I like my colleagues, but I’ve never met them in person. I found my own doctor; I cook my own food. My manager is 26 — too Newbie trader for me to expect any parental warmth from him. When people ask me how I feel about my new position, I shrug: It’s a job.所以我去了一家我并不依恋的公司工作。我喜欢我的同事，但我从没见过他们本人。我自己找医生；我自己做饭。我的主管才26岁，他太年轻了，我不可能从他那里得到父母般的温暖。人们问我对新工作感觉如何，我耸耸肩：只是一份工作。Emi Nietfeld是一名纽约的软件工程师，即将出版回忆录《Acceptance》，这本书讲述了她在谷歌的经历。翻译：晋其角、邓妍点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 在谷歌遭遇性骚扰后，我再也不会爱上一份工作

无惧暴力镇压，缅甸抗议者举行全国大罢工

HANNAH BEECH2021-02-23 12:15:54周一，缅甸最大城市仰光的抗议者。大罢工在数百个城镇和平进行。
The strikers poured onto the streets of Myanmar on Monday knowing that they might die. But they gathered by the millions anyway, in the largest rallies since a military coup three weeks ago. Their only protection came from hard hats, holy amulets and the collective power of a newly called general strike.周一涌上缅甸街头的罢工者知道他们可能会没命。但数以百万计的他们聚集起来，这是自三周前军事政变以来最大的一次集会。他们唯一的保护来自安全帽、护身符和来自新一次大罢工的集体力量。The generals had tried to halt Monday’s dissent with barricades and fleets of vehicles parked in strategic urban locations. Armored vehicles patrolled, while snipers took their stations on rooftops. An ominous warning had been issued hours before on state television: “Protesters are now inciting people, especially emotional teenagers and youth, toward a path of confrontation where they will suffer a loss of life.”将军们试图通过在城市里的关键地点设置路障和车队来阻止周一的异见者。装甲车辆巡逻，狙击手在屋顶上就位。几小时前，国家电视台发出了一条不祥的警告：“抗议者现在正在煽动人民，尤其是情绪激动的青少年和年轻人，把他们推上一条会让他们丧失生命的冲突之路。”But the military’s show of force did little to quell Monday’s general strike, which proceeded peacefully in hundreds of cities and towns. Columns of people extended to the horizon near a traffic junction and a pagoda in Yangon, the largest city in Myanmar, and at the railway station in Mandalay, the second-largest city. They congregated on Martyrs’ Street in Dawei, a seaside city, and by the clock towers in Monywa and Hpa-An, in the country’s center and east.但是，军方的武力展示并不能平息周一在数百个城镇进行的和平罢工。大批人群出现在缅甸最大的城市仰光的一个交通枢纽和一座宝塔附近，以及第二大城市曼德勒的火车站。他们聚集在海边城市土瓦的烈士街，以及该国中部城市蒙育瓦和东部城市巴安的钟楼旁。“I will sacrifice my life for our future generations,” said Ko Bhone Nay Thit, a 19-year-old university student in Mandalay who left home Monday morning armed with his mother’s prayers and the effects of a holy water ritual. “We must win.”“为了我们的子孙后代，我愿意付出生命，“曼德勒19岁的大学生鹏奈迪(Ko Bhone Nay Thit)说。他周一早上离开了家，带着母亲的祈祷和圣水仪式的效力。“我们必须赢。”The weekend had brought bloodshed to the anti-coup resistance. On Saturday afternoon, two unarmed protesters were killed by security forces in Mandalay; one of the dead was a 16-year-old boy. On Saturday evening, a member of a neighborhood watch corps in Yangon was shot dead. The day before, a 20-year-old woman died of injuries sustained when she was shot in the head on Feb. 9 by security forces in Naypyidaw, the capital. She is believed to be the first protester in the movement to have been killed by the authorities.周末，反政变抵抗发生了流血事件。周六下午，两名手无寸铁的抗议者在曼德勒被安全部队杀死。其中一名死者是一个16岁的男孩。在周六晚上，仰光附近一个邻里守望组织的成员被枪杀。在那前一天，在2月9日被首都内比都的安全部队射中头部的一名20岁女性因伤势过重死亡。据信她是该抗议运动中首位被当局杀害的抗议者。
仰光的防暴警察。城市的关键地点被设置路障、停放车辆。
The general strike on Monday encompassed civil servants, bank workers, doctors, supermarket cashiers, telecom operators and oil rig operators. Pizza deliverers, KFC employees and bubble tea servers joined in, too. The national boycott expanded a civil disobedience movement that has paralyzed the banking system and made it difficult for the military, which seized power from the elected government on Feb. 1, to get much of anything done.周一的大罢工包括公务员、银行职员、医生、超市收银员、电信公司员工和石油钻机操作者。披萨送餐员、肯德基员工和奶茶服务员也加入了。这次扩大到全国的非暴力反抗活动导致银行系统瘫痪，给在2月1日从民选政府夺取了政权的军方造成行事困难。The strike evoked another mass boycott on Aug. 8, 1988, when workers took to the streets to protest against a military leadership that had ruined the economy. The junta responded with bullets, a bloodstain on Myanmar’s national memory.这次罢工让人们想起了1988年8月8日的另一次大规模抵制运动。当时工人走上街头抗议毁掉经济的军方领导人。军政府以子弹回应，在缅甸的国家记忆中留下血迹。But that deadly crackdown, along with another in 2007, did not deter the marchers on Monday.但是，那次致命的镇压行动以及2007年的另一次镇压行动并未阻止周一的游行者。In Mandalay, Daw Htay Shwe, a restaurant owner, said she had written her will before joining the rally at the train station.在曼德勒，一家餐馆的老板泰瑞(Daw Htay Shwe)说，她在参加火车站集会之前已经写好遗嘱。“I will protect our country’s democracy with my life,” she said.她说：“我将用生命捍卫国家的民主。”In Yangon, marchers stomped on posters of a sniper who is believed to have targeted the protesters in Mandalay on Saturday. A group representing a military technical college joined the march, as well.在仰光，游行者踩踏一名狙击手的海报，据信是周六打中了曼德勒抗议者的狙击手。代表军事技术学院的团体也参加了游行。“I cannot live under a military dictatorship,” said Daw Myint Myint, a homemaker in Yangon, who was out in the hot afternoon sun. “Our leaders, whom we elected, trusted and respected, are arrested. I am here to express my opinion that I want them to be freed.”“我不能在军事独裁统治下生活，“仰光的家庭主妇敏敏(Daw Myint Myint)说。“由我们选出的值得信赖和尊敬的领袖被逮捕。我在这里表达我的观点，我希望他们被释放。”
仰光一辆军用卡车旁边的抗议者。
The coup ousted the civilian government of the National League for Democracy, which had shared power with the military for five years. Top elected leaders were dragged off by soldiers, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the head of the National League for Democracy, who was charged with obscure crimes that could land her in prison for six years. Before the brief experiment with hybrid military-civilian governance, the military had imposed its direct rule on Myanmar for nearly half a century.政变推翻了全国民主联盟(National League for Democracy)的文官政府，该政府与军方分享了五年的权力。最高民选领导人被士兵拖走，其中包括全国民主联盟负责人昂山素季，她被指控犯下莫名其妙的罪行，可能入狱六年。在短暂的军民混合治理试验以前，军方对缅甸实行了近半个世纪的直接统治。As of Monday morning, more than 560 people had been detained for dissent against the coup, according to a local group that tracks political imprisonments. By the afternoon, at least 150 protesters were arrested in the logging town of Pyinmana, not far from Naypyidaw, where mass detentions were reported, too. The State Administration Council, the coup makers’ replacement for Myanmar’s elected government, has rolled back civil liberties, allowing for indefinite detention and police searches without warrants.追踪政治监禁的当地组织称，截至周一早上，已有超过560人因反对政变而被拘留。到下午，至少有150名抗议者在离内比都不远的伐木小城彬马那被捕，据报道那里也发生了大规模拘留。政变组织用国家管理委员会(State Administration Council)取代了缅甸民选政府，撤回了公民自由，允许无限期拘留，警察搜查无需搜捕令。On Monday morning Myanmar time, Antony J. Blinken, the United States secretary of state, posted a tweet in support of the protesters in Myanmar, which was formerly known as Burma.缅甸时间周一早上，美国国务卿安东尼·J·布林肯(Antony J. Blinken)发布了一条推文支持缅甸的抗议者。“The United States will continue to take firm action against those who perpetrate violence against the people of Burma as they demand the restoration of their democratically elected government,” the tweet said. “We stand with the people of Burma.”“美国将继续对那些因缅甸人民要求恢复民主选举的政府而对他们实施暴力的人采取坚决行动，“这条推文说。“我们与缅甸人民站在一起。”The United States government has imposed financial sanctions on some of the coup makers and their associates. Other sanctions were already in place because of the military’s persecution of ethnic minorities, most notably Rohingya Muslims, who fled slaughter in 2017 for safety in neighboring Bangladesh.美国政府对某些政变制造者及其同伙实施了经济制裁。针对缅甸军方对少数民族的迫害（其中最引人注目的是罗辛亚穆斯林），之前已经实施了其他制裁措施。罗辛亚穆斯林在2017年因躲避屠杀逃至邻国孟加拉。
周一，抗议者在缅甸第二大城市曼德勒举行抗议活动。
On Monday, the United Nations refugee agency warned in a statement that a boat filled with Rohingya trying to reach Malaysia was in distress. Hundreds of Rohingya have died at sea in recent years, trying to leave Myanmar or Bangladesh, where they are confined to vast refugee settlements.周一，联合国难民署在一份声明中警告，一艘试图前往马来西亚、坐满罗辛亚人的船只遇险。近年来，为了离开关押他们的缅甸或孟加拉国庞大的难民定居点，数百名罗辛亚人在海上死亡。“Many are in a highly vulnerable condition and are apparently suffering from extreme dehydration,” the United Nations statement said. “We understand that a number of refugees have already lost their lives, and that fatalities have risen over the past 24 hours.”“许多人处于极为虚弱的状态，显然正在遭受严重脱水，“联合国的声明说。“我们了解到许多难民已经丧生，在过去的24小时内死亡人数已经增加。”Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government repeatedly defended the military in its campaign against the Rohingya, whom many in Myanmar considered to be Muslim interlopers in a majority-Buddhist land. The violent expulsion of 750,000 Rohingya from the country in 2017 failed to catalyze widespread protests or condemnation at home.昂山素季的文官政府在针对罗辛亚人的行动中一再捍卫军方，缅甸许多人认为罗辛亚人是以佛教徒为主的土地上的穆斯林闯入者。2017年，75万罗辛亚人遭暴力驱逐，但未能在该国激发广泛的抗议或谴责。But one of the groups marching in Yangon on Monday held up a banner apologizing to the Rohingya and other ethnic minorities, who make up at least a third of the national population.但周一在仰光游行队伍中，有人举起了向罗辛亚人和其他少数民族——至少占全国人口的三分之一——道歉的横幅。In recent years, strife between the military and various ethnic insurgent groups has left hundreds dead and tens of thousands displaced. On Friday, a civilian was killed in Shan State during renewed hostilities.近年来，军方与各少数民族反抗组织之间的冲突导致数百人死亡，成千上万的人流离失所者。上周五，在新的敌对行动中，掸邦的一名平民丧生。
仰光警方准备驱逐试图阻止安全部队车队的示威者。
One of the two protesters who were shot in Mandalay on Saturday was Ko Wai Yan Tun, a 16-year-old boy who had come to work in the city. To survive, he pushed a cart at a local market, where the stall operators called him “little boy.”周六在曼德勒被枪杀的两名抗议者之一是来到该市工作的16岁男孩伟仁敦(Ko Wai Yan Tun)。为了生存，他在当地市场推手推车，摊位经营者称他为“小男孩“。As the protests mounted near the market, Mr. Wai Yan Tun joined as a duty to his future, said Ko Myo Zaw, a friend.他的朋友妙佐(Ko Myo Zaw)说，随着抗议活动接近市场，伟仁敦为了自己的未来而加入其中。“He always said his life would be perfect when he had a mobile phone and a motorbike,” Mr. Myo Zaw said. “He was a nice guy.”“他一直说，要是有一部手机和一辆摩托车，他的生活就完美了，”妙佐说。“他是一个好人。”Hannah Beech自2017年起担任东南亚分社社长，现驻曼谷，她此前在上海、北京、曼谷和香港为《时代》杂志报道20年。欢迎在Twitter上关注她 @hkbeech。翻译：邓妍点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 无惧暴力镇压，缅甸抗议者举行全国大罢工

国会大厦暴乱：特朗普时代的暴力结尾

PETER BAKER2021-01-07 16:19:14特朗普总统的支持者在华盛顿纪念碑前。
[Follow our live coverage as Trump protesters stormed the US Capitol.](关注我们对支持特朗普的抗议者冲击美国国会大厦的现场报道。)WASHINGTON — For years, President Trump’s critics who warned of worst-case scenarios were dismissed as alarmists. But the worst case appeared to be materializing on Wednesday as the president’s supporters stormed the United States Capitol, forcing a halt to the process formalizing his election defeat and the evacuation of Vice President Mike Pence and members of Congress.华盛顿——几年来，特朗普总统的批评者一直在警告，最坏的情况将会发生，但被视为危言耸听。但是最坏的情况似乎在周三出现了，总统支持者冲进美国国会大厦，迫使正式确定他败选的过程停止，副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)和国会议员被迫撤离。In a remarkable scene evocative of coups and uprisings in authoritarian countries around the world, a mob breached security barricades, broke windows and swarmed through the Capitol. While lawmakers fled, police officers deployed tear gas inside the citadel of American democracy and drew guns to guard the House chamber in an armed standoff. Rioters made it onto the Senate dais where the vice president had stood shortly before and into Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s office where one sat at her desk.这惊人的一幕让人想起世界各地威权国家发生的政变和动乱。一群抗议者冲破安全路障，打碎窗户，涌进国会大厦。当议员们逃离时，警察在美国民主的城堡之内使用了催泪瓦斯，并且拔枪保卫众议院，双方发生武装对峙。暴动者登上副总统刚刚站过的参议院讲台，进入众议院议长南希·佩洛西(Nancy Pelosi)的办公室，其中一人坐在她的办公桌前。The extraordinary invasion of the Capitol came shortly after Mr. Trump egged on his admirers at a rally to march to the headquarters of Congress to protest its acceptance of the results of the election that he lost, even suggesting that he would join them, although he did not. While he did not explicitly urge them to force their way into the building, he told them that his presidency was being stolen and that no one should stand for it, inflaming passions that erupted not long after on the other end of the Pennsylvania Avenue.特朗普在一次集会上怂恿他的追随者向国会总部进军，抗议国会接受他的败选，甚至暗示自己会加入他们的行列，尽管他没有这样做。虽然他没有明确呼吁他们强行进入国会大厦，但他告诉他们，自己的总统职位正被窃取，任何人都不应该袖手旁观，不久后，这在宾夕法尼亚大道的另一端引发群情激奋。Only after the situation escalated did Mr. Trump finally appeal for calm. “I am asking for everyone at the U.S. Capitol to remain peaceful,” he wrote on Twitter. “No violence! Remember, WE are the Party of Law & Order — respect the Law and our great men and women in Blue. Thank you!”直到局势升级后，特朗普才终于呼吁各方保持冷静。“我请求美国国会大厦的所有人保持和平，”他在Twitter上写道。“不要暴力！记住，我们是维护法律和秩序的党——尊重法律和我们伟大的蓝衣男女。谢谢你们！”But he did not initially tell them to leave the Capitol or allow proceedings to resume and even Mr. Trump’s own advisers implored him to do more. “Condemn this now, @realDonaldTrump,” Alyssa Farah, who just stepped down as his communications director, wrote on Twitter. “You are the only one they will listen to. For our country!”但特朗普最初并没有让他们离开国会大厦或允许确认选票程序恢复，就连特朗普自己的顾问也恳请他采取更多行动。“立即发起谴责，@realDonaldTrump，”刚刚辞去特朗普通讯联络主管一职的阿丽莎·法拉(Alyssa Farah)在Twitter上写道。“他们只会听你的话。为了我们的国家！”Mick Mulvaney, who served as Mr. Trump’s White House chief of staff and later become a special envoy, made a similar appeal. “The President’s tweet is not enough,” he wrote. “He can stop this now and needs to do exactly that. Tell these folks to go home.”曾担任特朗普的白宫幕僚长、后来成为特使的米克·马尔瓦尼(Mick Mulvaney)也发出了类似的呼吁。“总统的推文是不够的，”他写道。“他可以让这一切停下来，这正是他应该立即做的。让这些人回家去。”Moments after President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. went on live television to deplore the “sedition” at the Capitol and call on Mr. Trump to go before cameras, the president released a recorded video online that offered mixed messages. He repeated his grievances against people who were “so bad and so evil” even as he told supporters it was time to withdraw without condemning their actions.候任总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)在电视直播中谴责国会大厦的“煽动行为”，并呼吁特朗普面对镜头。就在这之后不久，总统在网上发布的一段录制视频透露了含混不清的讯息。他重申他对那些“如此恶劣而邪恶”的人感到不满，然而他没有谴责其支持者的行为，只是告诉他们现在是时候撤离了。“I know you’re hurt,” he told them. “We had an election that was stolen from us. It was a landslide election and everyone knows it, especially the other side. But you have to go home now.” He added, “We love you. You’re very special.”“我知道你们很伤心，”他告诉他们。“我们的选举被偷走了。人人都知道那是一场压倒性的胜利，尤其是另一边的人。但你们现在必须回家去。”他还说，“我们爱你们。你们非常特别。”The president’s critics placed the blame on him for encouraging the violent response by repeatedly telling Americans that the election was stolen from him when it was not. “This is what the president has caused today, this insurrection,” Senator Mitt Romney, Republican of Utah, told a reporter as he was ushered with other lawmakers into a secure location that the authorities asked not be disclosed.总统的批评者指责他反复告诉美国人选举被窃取——尽管实际上并非如此——是在鼓励用暴力做出回击。“这就是今天总统引发的暴动，”犹他州共和党参议员米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)对记者表示，当时他正在与其他议员被护送进入一个当局要求保密的安全地点。
在总统发表讲话的集会后，特朗普的支持者冲进了国会大厦参议院一侧。
Representative Adam Kinzinger, Republican of Illinois and another outspoken critic of the president, went even further, accusing the president’s supporters of seeking the violent overthrow of the government. “This is a coup attempt,” he wrote on Twitter.伊利诺伊州共和党众议员、另一位直言不讳的总统批评者亚当·金青格(Adam Kinzinger)的表态更加激烈，指责总统支持者寻求暴力推翻政府。“这是一次未遂政变，”他在Twitter上写道。The president’s Republican allies, who were in the midst of trying to block the counting of Mr. Biden’s electors in hopes of helping Mr. Trump cling to power, denounced the violence without backing down from their effort.总统的共和党盟友正在试图阻止统计拜登的选举人票，以盼让特朗普继续掌握权力，他们谴责了暴力，但并没有放弃他们的企图。“The violence must end, those who attacked police and broke the law must be prosecuted, and Congress must get back to work and finish its job,” Senator Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri and a leader of the election-blocking effort, said in a statement.“暴力必须终止，袭击警察和违反法律的人必须受到起诉，国会必须恢复工作，完成职责，”阻止选举程序行动的领导者之一、密苏里州共和党参议员乔希·霍利(Josh Hawley)在一份声明中表示。While Washington has seen many protests over the years, including some that turned violent, the convulsion on Wednesday was unlike anything that the capital has seen during a transition of power in modern times, literally interrupting the constitutional acceptance of Mr. Biden’s election victory. A presidency that has stirred hostility and divisions for four years appeared to be ending in an explosion of anger, disorder and violence.尽管华盛顿多年来经历过许多次抗议，其中一些还演变成暴力，但周三发生在首都的骚乱，在近现代的权力交接过程中堪称史无前例，实际上打断了依据宪法承认拜登胜选的程序。一位总统在四年间引发的敌意和分歧，似乎即将在愤怒、混乱和暴力的爆发中结束。“We will never give up,” Mr. Trump had declared at a “Save America March” on the Ellipse shortly before the uprising, his last-gasp effort to justify his failing bid to overturn the democratic election with false claims of fraud that have been debunked by elections, judges and even his own attorney general. “We will never concede. It doesn’t happen. You don’t concede when there’s theft involved. Our country has had enough. We will not take it anymore, and that’s what this is all about.”“我们永远不放弃，”在暴动发生前不久，特朗普在白宫椭圆形草坪的一次“拯救美国游行”(Save America March)中宣称，那是他最后的努力，企图用舞弊的虚假主张来推翻民主选举，但不管是选举结果、法官甚至还有他自己的司法部长都揭穿了他的谎言。“我们永远不认输。认输是不可能的。有偷窃就不能有认输。我们的国家受够了。我们不能再忍受，这就是我们的意思。”As the crowd on the Ellipse chanted, “Fight for Trump! Fight for Trump!” the president lashed out at members of his own party for not doing more to help him cling to power over the will of the people. “There are so many weak Republicans,” he growled and then vowed to take revenge against those he deemed insufficiently loyal. “You primary them,” he said.随着椭圆形草坪上的人群高呼“为特朗普而战！为特朗普而战！”总统怒斥其所在政党的成员，指责他们没有采取更多措施让他不顾人民意志抓住权力。“有那么多软弱的共和党人，”他咆哮道，然后发誓要报复那些他认为不够忠诚的人。“你们要初选掉他们，”他说。He singled out Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia, a Republican who has angered him by not intervening in the election, calling him “one of the dumbest governors in the United States.” And he went after William P. Barr, the attorney general who would not validate his election complaints. “All of a sudden, Bill Barr changed,” he groused.他点名佐治亚州州长布莱恩·肯普(Brian Kemp)，称他是“美国最蠢州长之一”，这位共和党人因不肯干预大选激怒了他。他还抨击了不愿证实他对大选怨言的司法部长威廉·P·巴尔(William P. Barr)。“突然之间，比尔·巴尔就变脸了，”他抱怨道。Other speakers, including his sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, excoriated Republican lawmakers for not standing up for Mr. Trump. “The people who did nothing to stop the steal — this gathering should send a message to them,” Donald Trump Jr. said. “This isn’t their Republican Party anymore. This is Donald Trump’s Republican Party.”其他演讲者，包括他的儿子小唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump Jr.)和埃里克·特朗普(Eric Trump)，都痛斥没有支持特朗普的共和党议员。“对那些没有阻止这场选举被偷走的人——趁这次机会应该向他们传达一个信息，”小唐纳德·特朗普说。“这已经不是他们的共和党了。这是唐纳德·特朗普的共和党。”
“我们永远不会放弃，”特朗普在集会上宣布。
To many Republicans, that was the problem. Even as Mr. Trump’s presidency was slipping away from him, Republicans increasingly turned on him, stewing over the Tuesday’s runoff elections in Georgia that seemed to favor Democrats and the votes he was forcing lawmakers to take for or against the results of a democratic election.对于许多共和党人而言，这就是问题所在。即便总统职位即将离特朗普而去，仍有越来越多共和党人背弃了他，对佐治亚州在周二举行的似乎对民主党有利的决选，以及他逼迫议员投票支持或反对民主选举结果的行为感到恼怒。Even Mr. Pence and Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader, who have been among the most loyal supporters of Mr. Trump for four years, finally broke with him in a decisive way. Mr. Pence rebuffed the president’s demand that he use his role as presiding officer over the Electoral College count to reject electors for Mr. Biden. And Mr. McConnell gave a forceful speech repudiating Mr. Trump’s effort to overturn the election.就连彭斯和肯塔基州参议员、共和党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)也最终果断与他决裂，他们都是四年来特朗普最忠实的支持者之一。彭斯拒绝了总统的要求，不肯利用自己主持选举人团计票的身份来否决拜登的选举人票。麦康奈尔发表了一篇有力演说，驳斥了特朗普推翻大选的企图。“If this election were overturned by mere allegations from the losing side, our democracy would enter a death spiral,” Mr. McConnell said in a speech before the rioters overran the Capitol.“如果这次大选仅靠失败一方的空口指控就能被推翻，我们的民主将进入死亡螺旋，”暴徒占领国会大厦前，麦康奈尔在一次演讲中表示。Mr. Pence rejected the president just minutes after Mr. Trump continued to publicly pressure him to do what even the president’s longtime lawyer Jay Sekulow said the vice president did not have the power to do — reject the electors of swing states Republicans lost.彭斯也拒绝了总统，就在那之前几分钟，特朗普还继续向他公开施压，要求他做到连总统长期合作律师杰伊·塞库洛(Jay Sekulow)都说副总统无权去做的事——否决共和党输掉的摇摆州的选举人票。“I hope Mike is going to do the right thing,” Mr. Trump told the rally on the Ellipse. “I hope so. I hope so because if Mike Pence does the right thing, we win the election.”“我希望迈克会做正确的事，”特朗普告诉在椭圆形草坪上集会的人。“希望如此。我希望如此，因为如果迈克·彭斯做了正确的事，我们就能赢下大选。”Just minutes later, Mr. Pence released a letter saying he did not have the power to do what the president wanted him to do. “Vesting the vice president with unilateral authority to decide presidential contests would be entirely antithetical” to the constitutional design, he wrote.而几分钟后，彭斯发布了一封信，称他无权做总统希望他做的事。“将决定总统竞选的单方权威授予副总统将完全有违于”宪法的设计，他写道。He added: “It is my considered judgment that my oath to support and defend the Constitution constrains me from claiming unilateral authority to determine which electoral votes should be counted and which should not.”他还表示：“我经过深思熟虑得出的判断是，我支持和捍卫对宪法的宣誓，这让我不能行使单方权威来决定哪些选举人票应该被计算，哪些不应该。”With Mr. Pence unwilling and unable to stop the count, the president’s supporters made it their mission to do it themselves. And for several hours, at least, they succeeded.由于彭斯不愿也无法阻止计票进行，总统支持者就把这件事当做了自己的使命来完成。至少在几个小时的时间里，他们成功了。Peter Baker是《纽约时报》首席白宫记者，已为时报和《华盛顿邮报》报道过过去四届总统的新闻。他还是五本书的作者，最新出版的一本是《Impeachment: An American History》。欢迎在Twitter和Faceboook上关注他。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 国会大厦暴乱：特朗普时代的暴力结尾

拜登拟任命华裔女律师戴琦为贸易代表

ANA SWANSON2020-12-10 16:55:29去年，戴琦出席众议院筹款委员会听证会。如果任命获得批准，她将成为首位担任美国贸易代表的有色人种女性。
WASHINGTON — President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. is expected to select Katherine Tai, the chief trade lawyer for the House Ways and Means Committee, as the United States trade representative, a key post that will bear responsibility for enforcing America’s trade rules and negotiating new trading terms with China and other countries, according to people familiar with the plans.华盛顿——据了解其计划的知情人士透露，候任总统小约瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)预计将任命众议院筹款委员会(House Ways and Means Committee)的首席贸易律师戴琦(Katherine Tai)为美国贸易代表，这是一个关键职位，将负责执行美国的贸易规则，并与中国及其他国家协商新的贸易条款。Ms. Tai has garnered strong support from colleagues in Congress, who credit her with helping to wrangle an unruly collection of politicians and interest groups in negotiations to pass the revised North American Free Trade Agreement. From 2007 to 2014, Ms. Tai worked for the Office of the United States Trade Representative, where she successfully prosecuted several cases on Chinese trade practices at the World Trade Organization.戴琦得到了其国会同僚的大力支持，他们称赞她在谈判中帮忙对付了难以驾驭的政客和利益集团，才让修订后的《北美自由贸易协定》（North American Free Trade Agreement，简称NAFTA）得以通过。2007年至2014年，戴琦在美国贸易代表办公室(Office of the United States Trade Representative)工作期间，在世界贸易组织就中国的贸易行为成功提起了几起诉讼。If confirmed, Ms. Tai, who is Asian-American, would be the first woman of color to serve as the U.S. trade representative, a cabinet-level official who carries the rank of ambassador.如果任命获得批准，身为亚裔的戴琦将成为首位担任美国贸易代表的有色人种女性，贸易代表是内阁级别的官员，拥有大使头衔。Ms. Tai’s selection was earlier reported by Politico.Politico网站于早前报道了戴琦的候选。Although Mr. Biden has said he does not intend to begin negotiating new free-trade agreements until he has made “major investments here at home and in our workers,” his trade representative will still have plenty to do. Those tasks are likely to include ensuring that American trade rules are adequately enforced and that they promote rather than impede other parts of Mr. Biden’s agenda, including fighting climate change and encouraging domestic investment, for example through augmenting Buy American programs.尽管拜登曾表示，在“对国内和对我们的工人做出重大投入”之前，他不打算开始商讨新的贸易协定，但他的贸易代表仍有大量工作要做。这些任务可能包括确保美国的贸易规则得到充分执行，以及确保这些规则促进而不是阻碍拜登议程的其他部分，包括应对气候变化，和通过诸如扩大“购买美国产品”项目来鼓励国内投资。Congressional Democrats have fought for Ms. Tai to be appointed in part because they believe she would play a vital role in making sure that the terms of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which replaced NAFTA this year, are enforced. That includes bringing new trade cases against Mexican factories that violate labor rules, and ensuring that Mexico will follow through with ambitious reforms to its labor system.国会民主党人一直在争取戴琦的任命，部分原因是他们相信她将在确保《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协议》(United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement)的条款执行上发挥关键作用，该协议将在今年取代NAFTA。协议中包括对违反劳动法规的墨西哥工厂提起新的贸易诉讼，并确保墨西哥将完成对其劳工制度的大规模改革。As chief counsel for the Ways and Means Committee, Ms. Tai played a key role in crafting the Democratic demands for final changes to U.S.M.C.A., which was negotiated by the Trump administration. In that capacity, she balanced the competing demands of labor unions, environmental groups, corporate lobbyists and the administration, and helped to hammer out a deal that passed both houses of Congress by a wide margin.作为筹款委员会的首席顾问，戴琦在拟定民主党对美墨加协议最终修改的要求上发挥了关键作用，该协议是由特朗普政府谈判达成的。在这一职位上，她平衡了工会、环保组织、集团说客与本届政府之间的竞争性需求，并帮助敲定了一项在国会两院以较大优势获得通过的协议。In a November letter to Mr. Biden, 10 female House Democrats wrote that Ms. Tai’s central role in that negotiation “makes her uniquely qualified to lead implementation and enforcement efforts” as the next trade representative.11月，在给拜登的一封信中，十位众议院女民主党人写道，戴琦在那次谈判中扮演的核心角色，使她具有了作为下一任贸易代表“去领导实施和执行工作的独特资质”。“Ms. Tai knows every tool available to hold Mexico and Canada accountable,” the lawmakers wrote.“戴琦清楚每一种让墨西哥和加拿大负起责任的办法，”这些议员写道。Though sometimes a lower-profile position, the post of trade representative has taken on greater importance under President Trump, who has used the office to impose substantial tariffs against foreign countries and negotiate a series of trade deals, both small and large.虽然这个职位有时没那么引人注目，但在特朗普总统任内，贸易代表的地位变得更加重要，特朗普曾通过这一职位对外国征收高额关税，并就一系列大大小小的贸易协定进行谈判。Mr. Biden’s top trade negotiator will be responsible for dealing with much of that legacy, including helping to decide whether to continue levying tariffs on Chinese goods, and whether to continue granting certain companies exclusions from those tariffs. Many of those exclusions are set to expire on Dec. 31, and it remains unclear whether Mr. Trump plans to extend them.拜登的首席贸易谈判代表将负责处理大部分遗留问题，包括帮助他决定是否继续对中国商品加征关税，以及是否继续将某些企业排除在这些关税之外。许多排除条款将于12月31日到期，目前尚不清楚特朗普是否准备将其延长。The new trade representative will also be responsible for reshaping the office to fit Democratic priorities, like increasing protections for workers, mitigating climate change and raising standards for consumer protections. Mr. Biden’s pick will also be responsible for rebuilding trading relations that have been strained by Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach, including with Europe, Canada, Japan and Mexico.新任贸易代表还将负责重组其办公室，以适应民主党的优先事项，如增加劳工保护、缓解气候变化、提高保护消费者的标准。拜登的人选还将负责重塑因特朗普咄咄逼人的外交政策而紧张的贸易关系，包括对欧洲、加拿大、日本和墨西哥。Supporters say Ms. Tai is also uniquely positioned to address economic challenges from China, regarded as America’s biggest source of competition in the trade sphere.支持者称，戴琦在应对来自中国的经济挑战的问题上也处于独特位置，中国被视为美国在贸易领域的最大竞争源头。In addition to litigating trade disputes against China at the World Trade Organization over issues including subsidies and export restraints, Ms. Tai worked on China-related issues during her time in the House, including strategies to reshore American supply chains and legislation to bar imports made with forced labor from Uighurs and other minorities in China.除了就补贴和出口限制等问题向世界贸易组织提起对中国的贸易争端诉讼外，戴琦在众议院任职期间还负责中国相关事务，包括制定美国供应链的回流战略，和立法禁止进口由中国维吾尔族和其他少数民族的强迫劳力生产的产品。Ms. Tai has a background in China, having served as a teaching fellow there in the late 1990s and speaking fluent Mandarin Chinese.戴琦有中国背景，她曾在上世纪90年代末在中国担任教师，能说一口流利的普通话。In the House, she also led an effort to look at the legacy of racial injustice in U.S. trade policy, and how gains from trade could be made more inclusive.在众议院，她还牵头研究了美国贸易政策中种族不公的遗留问题，以及如何使贸易收益更具包容性。Thomas Kaplan和Emily Cochrane对本文由报道贡献。Ana Swanson是时报驻华盛顿记者，报道贸易和全球经济新闻。她此前在《华盛顿邮报》工作，报道贸易、美联储及经济方面的新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@AnaSwanson。翻译：Harry Wong点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 拜登拟任命华裔女律师戴琦为贸易代表

数以万计美国人死亡，是因为他们的政府无能

纪思道2020-10-23 16:29:06
One of the most lethal leadership failures in modern times unfolded in South Africa in the early 2000s as Corporate debt spread there under President Thabo Mbeki.现代最为致命的一个领导无方的事例，是21世纪初南非在总统塔博·姆贝基(Thabo Mbeki)治下发生的艾滋病传播。Mbeki scorned science, embraced conspiracy theories, dithered as the disease spread and rejected lifesaving treatments. His denialism cost about 330,000 lives, a Harvard study found.姆贝基藐视科学，推崇阴谋论，在艾滋病传播开来时犹豫不决，并且拒绝了能够挽救生命的治疗。哈佛一项研究发现，他这种拒绝面对的态度导致33万人丧生。None of us who wrote scathingly about that debacle ever dreamed that something similar might unfold in the United States. But today, health experts regularly cite President Trump as an American Mbeki.我们这些曾经用激烈言辞谈论这一灾祸的人怎么也想不到，类似的事情也发生在了美国。但今天，卫生专家常常将特朗普总统比作美国的姆贝基。“We’re unfortunately in the same place,” said Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist at U.C.L.A. “Mbeki surrounded himself with sycophants and cost his country hundreds of thousands of lives by ignoring science, and we’re suffering the same fate.”“很不幸，我们处在同一境地，”加州大学洛杉矶分校(UCLA)流行病学家安·里莫因(Anne Rimoin)说。“姆贝基身边全是阿谀奉承的人，他无视科学，导致数十万人失去生命，我们现在也在遭受同样的命运。”One role of journalism is to establish accountability, and that’s particularly important before an election. Trump says he deserves an A-plus for his “phenomenal job” handling the coronavirus, but the judgment of history is likely to be far harsher.新闻的一个作用是问责，这一点在一场大选前尤为重要。特朗普说他在应对新冠病毒方面的“出色表现”应该拿个A+成绩，但来自历史的评判很可能要严厉得多。“I see it as a colossal failure of leadership,” said Larry Brilliant, a veteran epidemiologist who helped eliminate smallpox in the 1970s. “Of the more than 200,000 people who have died as of today, I don’t think that 50,000 would have died if it hadn’t been for the incompetence.”“在我看来，这是领导方面的巨大失败，”曾在20世纪70年代参与消灭天花资深流行病学家拉里·布里利安特(Larry Brilliant)说。“如果不是因为无能，在那些截至今天死亡的20多万人里，有5万人不会死。”There’s plenty of blame to go around, involving Democrats as well as Republicans, but Trump in particular “recklessly squandered lives,” in the words of an unusual editorial this month in the New England Journal of Medicine. Death certificates may record the coronavirus as the cause of death, but in a larger sense vast numbers of Americans died because their government was incompetent.在这件事上，民主党和共和党都难辞其咎，但本月《新英格兰医学杂志》(New England Journal of Medicine)一篇不同寻常的社论称，特朗普尤其“毫无顾忌地罔顾生命”。死亡证明上可能会将新冠病毒列为死亡原因，但从更宏观角度来说，大量美国人之所以死亡，是因为他们的政府无能。As many Americans are dying every 10 days of Covid-19 as U.S. troops died during 19 years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the economists David Cutler and Lawrence Summers estimate that the economic cost of the pandemic in the United States will be $16 trillion, or about $125,000 per American household — far more than the median family’s net worth. Then there’s an immeasurable cost in soft power as the United States is humbled before the world.每10天死于Covid-19的美国人，相当于美国军队在伊拉克和阿富汗19年战争中死亡总数。经济学家戴威·卡特勒(David Cutler)和劳伦斯·萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)估计，大流行在美国造成的经济损失将达16万亿美元，即每个美国家庭损失约12.5万美元——比美国家庭净资产中位数要高得多。然后，由于美国在全世界面前的笨拙表现，还存在着软实力方面不可衡量的损失。“It’s really sad to see the U.S. presidency fall from being the champion of global health to being the laughingstock of the world,” said Devi Sridhar, an American who is a professor of global health at the University of Edinburgh. “It was a tragedy of history that Donald Trump was president when this hit.”“看到美国总统从全球卫生引领者沦为世界的笑柄，真的令人感到悲哀，”身为美国人的爱丁堡大学(University of Edinburgh)全球卫生教授德维·斯里达尔(Devi Sridhar)。“这件事发生时总统是唐纳德·特朗普，是个历史悲剧。”The United States has made other terrible mistakes over the decades, including the Iraq War and the War on Drugs. But in terms of destruction of American lives, treasure and wellbeing, this pandemic may be the greatest failure of governance in the United States since the Vietnam War.过去几十年来，美国也犯过其他可怕错误，包括伊拉克战争和反毒品战争。但在夺去美国人的生命、财产和福祉方面，这场大流行可能是自越南战争以来，美国治理的最大失败。America Was the Leader in Pandemic Preparedness.在防疫准备方面，美国曾是领导者The paradox is that a year ago, the United States seemed particularly well positioned to handle this kind of crisis. A 324-page study by Johns Hopkins found last October that the United States was the country best prepared for a pandemic.吊诡之处在于，一年前，在应对这种危机方面，美国似乎尤其做好了充分准备。约翰·霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins)一项324页的研究发现，去年10月，美国是大流行应对准备做的最好的国家。Credit for that goes to President George W. Bush, who in the summer of 2005 read an advance copy of “The Great Influenza,” a history of the 1918 flu pandemic. Shaken, Bush pushed aides to develop a strategy to prepare for another great contagion, and the result was an excellent 396-page playbook for managing such a health crisis.这要归功于乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)总统，2005年夏季，他读到了讲述1918年流感大流行历史的《大流感》(The Great Influenza)预览样书。深受震撼的布什敦促顾问制定了能为又一场大型传染病做好准备的战略，结果便是一份极为出色的396页的此类卫生危机应对策略。The Obama administration updated this playbook and in the presidential transition in 2016, Obama aides cautioned the Trump administration that one of the big risks to national security was a contagion. Private experts repeated similar warnings. “Of all the things that could kill 10 million people or more, by far the most likely is an epidemic,” Bill Gates warned in 2015.奥巴马政府对这份策略进行了更新，在2016年总统交接时，奥巴马的顾问提醒特朗普政府，国家安全面临的一大风险是传染病。民间专家也多次作出类似警告。“在那些能导致1000万或更多人死亡的问题中，目前最有可能的就是一场大流行，”比尔·盖茨(Bill Gates)2015年警告说。Trump argues that no one could have anticipated the pandemic, but it’s what Bush warned about, what Obama aides tried to tell their successors about, and what Joe Biden referred to in a blunt tweet in October 2019 lamenting Trump’s cuts to health security programs and adding: “We are not prepared for a pandemic.”特朗普提出，没人能预见到这场大流行，但这正是布什曾警告过的，是奥巴马的顾问试图告诉其继任者的，也是乔·拜登(Joe Biden)在2019年10月一则直白的推文中，对特朗普削减卫生安全项目所惋惜的，他在其中还说：“我们没有准备好迎接一场大流行。”The First Alarm Bells From Wuhan来自武汉的第一声警钟When the health commission of Wuhan, China, announced on Dec. 31 that it had identified 27 cases of a puzzling pneumonia, Taiwan acted with lightning speed. Concerned that this might be an outbreak of SARS, Taiwan dispatched health inspectors to board flights arriving from Wuhan and screen passengers before allowing them to disembark. Anyone showing signs of ill health was quarantined.当中国武汉卫健委12月31日宣布识别出27例令人费解的肺炎病例时，台湾迅速行动了起来。由于担忧这可能是另一场SARS疫情，台湾派卫生检查员登上来自武汉的航班，对乘客筛查后，才允许他们下机。任何表现出生病迹象的乘客都被隔离。If either China or the rest of the world had shown the same urgency, the pandemic might never have happened.如果无论是中国，还是世界其他地区都表现出同样的紧迫感，这场大流行很可能不会发生。In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a notice about the Wuhan outbreak on Jan. 1, but not much else happened for a time. In China, President Xi Jinping issued orders on Jan. 7 for handling the coronavirus, but they were inadequate. If, at that time or soon after, Xi had ordered a more modest version of the Wuhan lockdown that was to come, it is possible that the virus could have been stifled before it spread around the globe.在美国，疾病控制和预防中心(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)1月1日发布了一封关于武汉疫情暴发的通知，但自那之后有一段时间，就没有其他动作了。在中国，习近平主席1月7日下令要求应对新冠病毒，但没有拿出充分有力的应对。如果习近平在当时或很快下令进行比后来武汉封城相对温和的策略，很可能病毒会在传播全球之前就被压制住。Instead, Wuhan held a banquet for 40,000 people on Jan. 18, and by the time the lockdown was ordered on Jan. 23, some five million people had already left Wuhan for the Chinese New Year. In hindsight, two points seem clear: First, China initially covered up the scale of the outbreak. Second, even so, the United States and other countries had enough information to act as Taiwan did. The first two countries to impose travel restrictions on China were North Korea and the Marshall Islands, neither of which had inside information.相反，武汉在1月18日举行了一场4万人的宴会，到1月23日下令实行封锁时，约有500万人已经离开武汉过春节。事后看来，有两点似乎很清楚：第一，中国最初掩盖了疫情的规模。其次，即便如此，美国和其他国家仍有足够的信息，可以像台湾那样采取行动。首先对中国实施旅行限制的两个国家是朝鲜和马绍尔群岛，这两个国家都没有得到内部消息通报。That first half of January represents a huge missed opportunity for the world. If the United States, the World Health Organization and the world media had raised enough questions and pressed China, then perhaps the Chinese central government would have intervened in Wuhan earlier. And if Wuhan had been locked down just two weeks earlier, it’s conceivable that this entire global catastrophe could have been averted.1月的上半月，世界错失了一个重大机会。如果美国、世界卫生组织和世界媒体提出足够多的问题，并向中国施压，或许中国中央政府会更早对武汉进行干预。如果武汉在两周前就被封锁，这场全球性的灾难是可以避免的。The Defiance of Science对科学的蔑视Perhaps the original sin of America’s response to the coronavirus came with the bungling of testing.也许美国对新冠病毒反应的原罪在于检测方面的拙劣。Without testing, health officials fight an opponent while blindfolded. They don’t know where the virus lurks, and they can’t isolate those infected or trace their contacts.没有检测，卫生官员就像是蒙着眼睛同对手作战。他们不知道病毒潜伏在哪里，也无法隔离被感染者，或追踪感染者的接触者。But the C.D.C. devised a faulty test, and turf wars in the federal government prevented the use of other tests. South Korea, Germany and other countries quickly developed tests that did work, and these were distributed around the world. Sierra Leone in West Africa had effective tests before the United States did.但是疾控中心设计了一种有缺陷的检测，而且联邦政府内部的地盘之争阻止了其他检测方式的使用。韩国、德国和其他国家迅速开发出了行之有效的检测方法，并在世界各地推广。西非的塞拉利昂在美国之前就进行了有效的检测。Trump supporters note, correctly, that within the United States, the states with the highest mortality rates have been Democrat-led: New Jersey has had the most deaths per capita, followed by New York. It’s true that local politicians, Democrats and Republicans alike, made disastrous decisions, as when Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City urged people in March to “get out on the town despite coronavirus.” But local officials erred in part because of the failure of testing: Without tests, they didn’t know what they faced.特朗普的支持者正确地指出，在美国，死亡率最高的几个州都是由民主党领导的：新泽西州按人口计死亡率最高，其次是纽约州。的确，做出了灾难性决定的地方政治人物里，有共和党人也有民主党人，就像纽约市长白思豪(Bill de Blasio)在今年3月敦促人们“别管新冠病毒，尽情出门去玩吧”。但地方官员的错误部分是由于检测失败：没有检测，他们不知道自己面临的是什么。It’s unfair to blame the testing catastrophe entirely on Trump, for the failures unfolded several paygrades below him. Partly that’s because Trump appointees, like Robert Redfield, director of the C.D.C., simply aren’t the A team.把检测灾难完全归咎于特朗普是不公平的，因为那是在他以下的几个级别展开。这在一定程度上是因为特朗普任命的官员根本就不是一流团队，比如疾控中心主任罗伯特·雷德菲尔德(Robert Redfield)。In any case, presidents set priorities for lower officials. If Trump had pushed aides as hard to get accurate tests as he pushed to repel refugees and migrants, then America almost certainly would have had an effective test by the beginning of February and tens of thousands of lives would have been saved.在任何情况下，总统都会为下级官员设定优先事项。如果特朗普像驱逐难民和移民那样大力敦促助手们进行准确的检测，那么几乎可以肯定，美国在2月初就能进行有效的检测，数万人的生命就将得到挽救。Still, testing isn’t essential if a country gets backup steps right. Japan is a densely populated country that did not test much and yet has only 2 percent as many deaths per capita as the United States. One reason is that Japanese have long embraced face masks, which Dr. Redfield has noted can be at least as effective as a vaccine in fighting the pandemic. A country doesn’t have to do everything, if it does some things right.不过，如果一个国家采取了正确的后备措施，检测也不是必不可少的。日本是一个人口密集的国家，没有进行太多检测，但其死亡率仅为美国的2%。原因之一是日本人长期以来一直接受口罩。雷德菲尔德指出，口罩在抗击疫情方面至少和疫苗同样有效。如果一个国家做对了一些事情，那么就不必做所有的事情。Yet in retrospect, Trump did almost everything wrong. He discouraged mask wearing. The administration never rolled out contact tracing, missed opportunities to isolate the infected and exposed, didn’t adequately protect nursing homes, issued advice that confused the issues more than clarified them, and handed responsibilities to states and localities that were unprepared to act. Trump did do a good job of accelerating a vaccine, but that won’t help significantly until next year.但回过头来看，特朗普几乎什么都做错了。他不鼓励戴口罩。政府从未推行过接触者追踪，错过了隔离感染者和暴露者的机会；没有充分保护疗养院；其发布的建议是对问题的混淆而不是澄清，并把责任交给没有准备好采取行动的州和地方。特朗普的确在加速研制疫苗方面做得很好，但这在明年之前不会有太大帮助。Trump’s missteps arose in part because he channeled an anti-intellectual current that runs deep in the United States, as he sidelined scientific experts and responded to the virus with a sunny optimism apparently meant to bolster the financial markets.特朗普的失误在一定程度上是因为他引导了美国深层之下的反智潮流，他排挤科学专家，以显然意在提振金融市场的阳光乐观态度去应对病毒。“It’s going to disappear,” Trump said on Feb. 27. “One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”“它会消失，”特朗普在2月27日表示。“有一天，它会奇迹般地消失。”A conservative commentariat echoed Trump in downplaying the virus and deriding efforts to stay safe. Brit Hume of Fox News mocked Joe Biden for wearing a large mask, and the right-wing website RedState denounced “the public health Gestapo” and called Dr. Anthony Fauci a “mask Nazi.” A University of Chicago study found that watching the Sean Hannity program correlated to less social distancing, so watching Fox News may well have been lethal to some of its fans.保守派评论界附和特朗普的说法，淡化病毒，嘲笑为保持安全所做的努力。福克斯新闻(Fox News)的布里特·休姆(Brit Hume)嘲笑乔·拜登(Joe Biden)戴着大口罩。右翼网站RedState谴责“公共卫生盖世太保”，并称安东尼·福奇(Anthony Fauci)博士为“口罩纳粹”。芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)的一项研究发现，观看肖恩·汉尼蒂(Sean Hannity)的节目同减少社交距离的保持存在关联，因此观看福克斯新闻很可能对部分粉丝产生致命的影响。Echoes of the Soviet Union苏联的回声Americans have often pointed to the Soviet Union as a place where ideology trumped science, with disastrous results. Stalin backed Trofim Lysenko, an agricultural pseudoscientist who was an ardent Communist but scorned genetics — and whose zealous incompetence helped cause famines in the Soviet Union. Later, in the 1980s, Soviet leaders were troubled by data showing falling life expectancy — so they banned publication of mortality statistics. It was in the same spirit that Trump opposed testing for the coronavirus in the hope of holding down the number of reported cases.美国人经常指出，在苏联，意识形态战胜了科学，造成了灾难性的后果。斯大林支持农业伪科学家特罗菲姆·李森科(Trofim Lysenko)，此人是狂热的共产主义者，鄙视遗传学——他的狂热无能导致了苏联的饥荒。后来，在1980年代，苏联领导人对显示出预期寿命下降的数据感到不安，于是禁止发布死亡率统计。特朗普也本着同样的精神反对新冠病毒检测，希望能压低报告病例的数量。Of course, science sometimes gets it wrong. Many experts opposed closing borders, while Trump’s move to limit travel from China now appears sound — although 45 countries imposed such travel restrictions before the United States. Likewise, Fauci said on March 9: “If you’re a healthy, Newbie trader person, if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship.”当然，科学有时也会出错。许多专家反对关闭边境，而特朗普对中国的旅行限制现在看来是正确的——尽管45个国家在美国之前实施了此类禁令。同样，福奇在3月9日表示：“如果你是一个健康的年轻人，那么你想去坐邮轮就去坐邮轮。”Inevitably, science errs, then self-corrects. But Trump was not self-correcting.科学难免会出错，然后它会自我修正。但特朗普并没有进行自我修正。Most striking, Trump still has never developed a comprehensive plan to fight Covid-19. His “strategy” was to downplay the virus and resist business closures, in an effort to keep the economy roaring — his best argument for re-election.最令人吃惊的是，特朗普仍然没有制定出对抗新冠病毒的全面计划。他的“战略”是淡化病毒，制止企业倒闭，努力保持经济蓬勃发展——那是他争取连任的最佳论据。This failed. The best way to protect the economy was to control the virus, not to ignore it, and the spread of Covid-19 caused economic dislocations that devastated even homes where no one was infected. Eight million Americans have slipped into poverty since May, a Columbia University study found, and about one in seven households with children have reported to the census that they didn’t have enough food to eat in the last seven days. More than 40 percent of adults reported in June that they were struggling with mental health, and 13 percent have begun or increased substance abuse, a C.D.C. study found. More than one-quarter of Newbie trader adults said they have seriously contemplated suicide. Diane Reynolds, who runs an excellent addiction program called Provoking Hope, estimates that relapses have increased 50 percent during the pandemic.这个策略失败了。保护经济的最佳方式是控制病毒，而不是忽视它，新冠病毒的传播造成了经济混乱，甚至摧毁了没有感染的家庭。哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)的一项研究发现，自5月以来，有800万美国人陷入贫困，大约七分之一有孩子的家庭在这项调查中报告，他们在过去七天里没有足够的食物吃。疾控中心的一项研究发现，今年6月，超过40%的成年人报告说，他们存在心理健康困扰，13%的人开始或加剧了药物滥用。超过四分之一的年轻人说他们曾认真考虑过自杀。管理着一个名为“唤起希望”(Provoking Hope)的戒毒项目的黛安·雷诺兹(Diane Reynolds)估计，在大流行期间，复吸率增加了50%。Taking a Threat Seriously认真对待威胁Instead of leading a war against the virus, Trump organized a surrender. He even held a super-spreader event at the White House, for Judge Amy Coney Barrett, and that’s why the White House recently had more new cases of Covid-19 than New Zealand, Taiwan and Vietnam combined.特朗普没有领导对抗病毒的战争，而是组织了一场投降。他甚至在白宫为艾米·科尼·巴雷特(Amy Coney Barrett)法官举办了一场“超级传播者”活动，正因如此，白宫最近新增的新冠病例人数比新西兰、台湾和越南的总和还要多。It didn’t have to be this way. If the U.S. had worked harder and held the per capita mortality rate down to the level of, say, Germany, we could have saved more than 170,000 lives. And if the U.S. had responded urgently and deftly enough to achieve Taiwan’s death rate, fewer than 100 Americans would have died from the virus.事情本不必这样的。如果美国更努力地将死亡率控制在德国等国的水平上，我们本可以挽救超过17万人的生命。如果美国能够迅速而巧妙地做出反应，达到台湾的死亡率，那么死于该病毒的美国人将不到100人。“It is a slaughter,” Dr. William Foege, a legendary epidemiologist who once ran the C.D.C., wrote to Dr. Redfield. Dr. Foege predicted that public health textbooks would study America’s response to Covid-19 not as a model of A-plus work but as an example of what not to do.“这是一场屠杀，”传奇流行病学家、曾任疾控中心负责人的威廉·福格(William Foege)博士在给雷德菲尔德的信中写道。福格预测，公共卫生教科书将会研究美国对新冠病毒的反应，不是将它作为优秀工作的典范，而是作为反面教材。纪思道(Nicholas Kristof)自2001年成为时报专栏作家。他曾因对中国及达尔富尔的报道两次获得普利策奖。欢迎注册他两周一次的免费新闻电邮，并且在Instagram、Twitter和Facebook上关注他。翻译：Annie Xu、晋其角点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 数以万计美国人死亡，是因为他们的政府无能

简报：中印边境传枪声；《花木兰》致谢新疆当局遭抵制

KONEY BAI,KONEY BAI2020-09-09 09:50:342011年，美国副总统拜登与时任中国国家副主席的习近平在中国都江堰会晤。
 • 拜登与中国的40年：从支持中国崛起到对华立场强硬。拜登与中国的接触始于1979年，他曾经支持中国在全球一体化中崛起，希望用国际准则改变中国。但如今，他谴责习近平为“暴徒”，视中国为一个首要战略挑战。（阅读本文中文版）• 中印边境局势再升温：双方互相指责对方向天鸣枪。这似乎是几十年来两国首次在有争议的边境地区挑衅性地使用枪支。分析认为，局势正进入一个危险的僵局，双方都不想发动战争，但双方也都不愿让步。随着中印关系在更大范围内恶化，边界争端只会日趋严峻。• 习近平召开抗疫表彰会，称成功抗疫是对中共治理能力的明证。习近平在大会上发表长篇讲话，指出本次疫情再次证明，中国共产党具有“无比坚强的领导力”和“显著优势”。著名呼吸病学专家钟南山等医护人员上台领奖，武汉眼科医生李文亮未被提及。 • 外交对峙五天后，澳媒两名记者紧急撤离中国。澳媒报道称，中国国家安全人员试图向这两名记者询问有关被拘澳籍主持人成蕾的问题。他们一度被禁止离境，在两国外交官谈判后获准回国。此事凸显出中澳关系的不断恶化。（阅读本文中文版）
迪士尼电影《花木兰》引发多方指责。
• 迪士尼电影《花木兰》再度触发抵制运动。对这部电影的最新批评聚焦在其拍摄地点上，制片方在片尾对多个新疆政府单位和警方表示了感谢。抵制活动在香港、泰国、台湾等地涌现，美国议员也对此表示不满。对一些观众来说，《花木兰》是中共宣扬民族主义政策的最新标志。 • 香港公众要求港警对女童过分使用武力道歉。此前一则广为流传的视频显示，多名港警追赶一名出现在抗议现场附近的12岁女童，其中一名警察将其扑倒制伏。这一场面在社交媒体迅速引发大量批评，教师、社工和心理学家等联署请愿，要求当局道歉，并对涉案警员发起调查。• 观点：与中国划清界线——美国华人当中的新“切割派”。在中美剑拔弩张的情况下，一些华人选择疏离中国甚至划清界线。有人拿古巴移民为例，赞成脱钩，也有人认为，种族主义并不会因此减少。（阅读本文中文版）
去年，缅甸西部若开邦一所罗辛亚学校的遗迹。
• “杀光你看到的一切，不管是小孩还是大人”。两名缅甸士兵公开承认对该国罗辛亚穆斯林少数群体犯下强奸、处决和集体埋葬的罪行。其中一人表示，指挥官命令他“射杀看到和听到的一切”。这份视频证词是首次有缅甸军人承认对罗辛亚人的大规模屠杀，将对国际刑事法院的裁决产生影响。此前缅甸一再否认种族灭绝指控。• 大流行封锁下，印度农民自杀率升至新高。经济学家称，数百万农民家庭在疫情中陷入贫困、破产和负债，致使该国长期存在的自杀问题进一步恶化。一名负债2万美元的农民说，“我们已经无泪可流，心变成了石头”。他所在的村落中几乎每个月都有人自杀。• 白俄罗斯抗议领袖撕毁护照拒绝离境。科列斯尼科娃周一在首都明斯克街头“消失”，其支持者称她被安全部门绑架。周二，活动人士表示，科列斯尼科娃在该国南部边境地区现身，当局欲将其驱逐至乌克兰，她当场撕毁护照，拒绝离境。• 观点：我们为什么还要上大学？疫情改变了大学教育的方方面面，令人怀疑传统的学习场所还有什么价值。但实际上，去学校最好的理由，是为了发现自己有多少不懂的东西。（阅读本文中文版） 感谢阅读今天的简报，新读者请点击此处订阅。点击这里查看往日更新。欢迎在Twitter(@nytchinese)、Instagram和Facebook上关注我们，了解更多中文资讯。也欢迎访问中文网首页阅读更多新闻。如有任何建议和想法，请来信与我们分享：cn.letters@nytimes.com。  https://feedx.xyz

Source: 简报：中印边境传枪声；《花木兰》致谢新疆当局遭抵制