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WANG FENG2023年1月31日The shoe has dropped. The big one. China, the most populous country on the planet for centuries, this month reported its first population decline in six decades, a trend that is almost certainly irreversible. By the end of the century China may have only around half of the 1.41 billion people it has now, according to U.N. projections, and may already have been overtaken by India.那只靴子已经落地。而且是很大的一只。几个世纪以来人口一直居世界首位的中国本月公布了60年来的首次人口下降,这个趋势几乎可以肯定是不可逆转的。据联合国预测,到本世纪末,中国人口也许只是现有的14.1亿的一半左右,而且印度的人口目前可能已经超过了中国。The news has been met with gloom and doom, often framed as the start of China’s inexorable decline and, more broadly, the harbinger of a demographic and economic “time bomb” that will strain the world’s capacity to support aging populations.人们对这条消息的反应是悲观失望,通常认为这是中国无法改变的衰落的开始,而且更广泛地说,这是一个人口和经济“定时炸弹”的预兆,必将使世界赡养日益老龄化人口的能力达到极限。There is no doubt that a shrinking global population — a trend expected to set in by the end of this century — poses unprecedented challenges for humanity. China is only the latest and largest major country to join a club that already includes Japan, South Korea, Russia, Italy and others. Germany would likely be in decline too if not for immigration, and many others could begin shrinking in the years ahead. (The United States is expected to grow moderately in coming decades, largely because of immigration.) Median U.N. projections point to global population peaking in the mid-2080s at more than 10 billion, but if fertility rates continue to drop the decline could begin decades earlier.毫无疑问,全球人口减少——预计这个趋势将在本世纪末出现——给人类带来了前所未有的挑战。中国只是最新加入人口下降国家行列的最大国家,日本、韩国、俄罗斯、意大利和其他国家已经在这个行列中。如果没有外来移民的话,德国人口可能已在下降,而且,更多国家的人口可能会在未来几年开始萎缩。(美国人口预计将在未来几十年适度增长,主要是因为外来移民。)联合国各种预测的中值指出,全球人口将在本世纪80年代中期达到逾100亿的峰值,但如果生育率继续下降的话,全球人口开始减少的时间可能会提前几十年。But the alarmist warnings are often simplistic and premature. The glass is at least half full. Shrinking populations are usually part of a natural, inevitable process, and rather than focus excessively on concerns like labor shortages and pension support, we need to look at the brighter spots for our world.但危言耸听的警告往往过于简单且为时过早。杯子至少是半满的。人口减少通常是一个自然且不可避免过程的一部分,与其过分关注劳动力短缺和养老金缺口等问题,不如看看人口减少给世界带来的好处。There is no need for panic; we’ve made that mistake before.没必要恐慌;我们以前在人口问题上就犯过这种错误。In the second half of the 20th century the world was panicking about unstoppable population growth. The number of people on the planet more than tripled in seven decades, from 2.5 billion in 1950 to around 8 billion in 2022. Turns out, that was a transitory phase when mortality rates fell faster than fertility rates because of improved nutrition and public health, and relative peace.20世纪下半叶,世界曾被不可阻挡的人口增长吓得惊慌失措。地球上的人口在70年里增长了两倍多,从1950年的25亿增加到2022年的约80亿。事实证明,那是个暂时的阶段,由于营养和公共卫生的改善以及相对的和平,死亡率下降的速度超过了生育率下降的速度。But panic can lead to hasty policy and human tragedy. This reached its fullest form with China’s extreme birth-control campaigns launched in the late 1970s and which caused immense suffering, mostly for women, through forced abortions or fines and other penalties for breaking rules that restricted most couples to having only one child. Until those limits were scrapped beginning in 2015, hundreds of millions of Chinese women underwent sterilization procedures or had intrauterine devices inserted.但惊慌失策会导致草率政策和人间悲剧。中国在20世纪70年代末开始的极端计划生育运动,给以女性为主的群体造成的巨大痛苦,是这种悲剧的最充分体现。政府用强制堕胎或对违反计生规定者罚款的做法限制大多数夫妇只生一个孩子。政府在2015年开始取消“独生子女”政策之前,数亿中国女性接受了绝育手术或植入了避孕环。The population declines seen today in some countries have come about largely as a happy story of greater longevity and freedom. Fertility rates worldwide dropped from more than five births per woman in the early 1960s to 2.3 in 2020. Credit greater investment in child and maternal health everywhere: A mother who successfully brings her child to term, and an infant who survives to childhood, lowers birthrates because parents often don’t feel the need to try again. Greater availability of free or affordable contraception has also reduced unwanted births.在很大程度上,今天在一些国家看到的人口下降是长寿和自由的幸福故事。世界范围的生育率从上世纪60年代初的每名妇女平均生五个以上的孩子降到了2020年的2.3个。这归功于世界各地在母婴健康上的更多投入:母亲成功地足月分娩,婴儿活到了童年,使出生率降低,因为父母通常觉得没必要再生孩子。更多人用上了免费或负担得起的避孕措施,也减少了意外怀孕。China, South Korea and Japan are now all in population decline, but this is due in part to rapid increases in income, employment and education. The number of South Korean women who went on to postsecondary education rose from 6 percent in 1980 to more than 90 percent by 2020; China and Japan also have seen big gains. Lower birthrates stem in part from greater personal and reproductive freedom, such as the choice to stay unmarried, higher pay and more professional opportunities for women in these、韩国和日本的人口现在都在下降,但这在一定程度上是由于收入、就业和教育机会的快速增长。接受过高等教育的韩国女性比例已从1980年的6%上升到了2020年的90%以上;女性接受高等教育的人数在中国和日本也大幅增长。低出生率的部分原因在于更大的个人自由和生育自由,例如,这些国家的女性可以选择不结婚,她们有更多的职业机会,能挣到更高的工资。More women in the work force is a recipe for even greater productivity and prosperity and could help ease labor concerns among falling populations. More women than ever are rising to leadership positions in business, media and politics.更多的女性进入劳动力市场是进一步提高生产力、让社会更加繁荣的秘诀,也有助于缓解人口下降带来的劳动力短缺问题。越来越多的女性正在商业、媒体和政治领域担任领导职务。Compared to a half-century ago, people in many countries are richer, healthier and better educated and women are more empowered. China’s population, for example, is shrinking and aging, but its people are more educated and have a longer life expectancy than at any time in the country’s history. Expanded educational opportunities guarantee a spot in a university for almost every person born today in China, including more women than men.与50年前相比,许多国家的人民都更富有、更健康,受教育程度更高,女性有更大的自主权。以中国为例,虽然它的人口正在减少、而且正在老龄化,但中国人民的受教育程度和预期寿命的增加也是史无前例的。接受高等教育机会的扩大,保证了今天生在中国的几乎每个人都能上大学,高等院校在校生中女性已多于男性。Average world life expectancy has increased from 51 years in 1960 to 73 in 2019, and even more so in China, from 51 in 1962 to 78 in 2019. Increases of that magnitude reshape lives and open up opportunities unimaginable when life spans were shorter, such as workers remaining productive later in life, and growing markets for elderly consumers in areas like tourism, nutritional supplements and medical devices, among others.世界平均预期寿命已从1960年的51岁增加到2019年的73岁。中国的情况尤为突出,预期寿命已从1962年的51岁增加到2019年的78岁。这种幅度的增加重塑了人们的生活,也带来了人们在寿命更短时难以想象的机会,例如工作者将生产力保持到晚年,以及老年消费者为旅游、营养补充剂和医疗设备行业提供的不断增长的市场。Fewer people on the planet, of course, may reduce humanity’s ecological footprint and competition for finite resources. There could even be greater peace as governments are forced to choose between spending on military equipment or on elderly pensions. And as rich nations come to rely more on immigrants from poorer countries, those migrants gain greater access to the global prosperity currently concentrated in the developed world.地球上的人口减少当然也可能减少人类的生态足迹以及对有限资源的竞争。当各国政府被迫做出选择,究竟是把钱花在军备上还是花在支付老年人养老金上时,甚至有可能给世界带来更多的和平。随着富裕国家越来越依赖来自较贫穷国家的移民,这些移民将有更多机会分享目前集中在发达国家的全球繁荣。This new demography brings new challenges, including the need to offer quality and affordable child care, make college education more affordable and equitable, provide guaranteed minimum income and make societies more gender equal. Governments should abandon the mindless pursuit of economic growth in favor of well-being for citizens.新的人口结构带来了新的挑战,包括有必要提供优质且负担得起的儿童照管服务,让更多的人支付得起大学学费,有更公平的接受高等教育的机会,提供最低收入保障,以及推动社会实现更大的性别平等。各国政府应该放弃盲目追求经济增长,把注意力集中到公民福祉上来。There is no reason that world population must keep growing or even remain level. And just as earlier panic led to harmful policies in China and elsewhere, efforts to raise fertility — which may prove futile — risk viewing women once again as birth machines.没有理由认为世界人口必须保持增长或至少保持平稳。正如中国和其他地方以前在人口问题上的恐慌导致了有害的政策一样,提高生育率的努力——它们可能被证明是徒劳的——有可能将女性再次视为生育机器。Global population will inevitably decline. Rather than trying to reverse that, we need to embrace it and adapt.全球人口将不可避免地下降。与其试图扭转它,我们需要接受并适应这个趋势。Wang Feng(@fwanguci)是加州大学欧文分校的社会学教授,与James Lee合著《One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythology and Chinese Realities, 1700-2000》一书。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 人口下降不是问题,多生孩子也并非解决之道


REBECCA DAVIS O'BRIEN2023年1月20日移民美国的白马达杰·昂旺在海军陆战队服役后加入警界。 Bing Guan for The New York TimesIn September 2020, when federal authorities charged Baimadajie Angwang, a Marine Corps veteran and New York Police Department officer, with acting as an illegal agent of China, the head of New York’s F.B.I. office called him “the definition of an insider threat.”2020年9月,联邦当局指控海军陆战队退伍军人、纽约警察局官员白马达杰·昂旺是中国的非法代理人,当时,联邦调查局纽约总部办公室称他为“来自内部威胁的典型”。The government has quietly changed its mind.政府悄悄改变了主意。On Thursday, in a brief and subdued hearing in a Brooklyn courtroom, a federal judge granted prosecutors’ request to dismiss the charges against Officer Angwang.周四,在布鲁克林法庭举行的简短而低调的听证会上,一名联邦法官批准了检察官的请求,撤销了对昂旺警官的指控。The swift unraveling of the case — which had been hailed as a signature example of the Justice Department’s efforts to root out foreign agents embedded in the United States — came with scant detail, much of it obscured by classification. In court Thursday, a federal prosecutor said that a “holistic” consideration of new evidence, developed in the two years since Officer Angwang’s arrest, had persuaded prosecutors to drop the case.此案曾被誉为司法部努力铲除潜伏在美国的外国特工的标志性案例,在其迅速撤销之际详情欠奉,其中大部分内容因为保密缘故而不为人所知。周四,一名联邦检察官在法庭上表示,在昂旺警官被捕后的两年里,对新证据的“整体”考虑说服了检察官放弃此案。For Officer Angwang, the dismissal was vindication, but not before the charges exacted a steep cost. Accused of spying on Tibetans for two Chinese consular officials, he spent six months in a jail cell, then under strict home monitoring as a flight risk. He remains on paid leave from the Police Department, his future uncertain.对昂旺警官来说,案件撤销洗刷了他的冤屈,但指控已经让他付出了高昂的代价。他被指控为两名中国领事官员监视藏人,在牢房里待了六个月,然后受到严格的居家监视,以防他潜逃。他在警察局仍然处于带薪休假的状态,前途未卜。Outside the courthouse Thursday, in the driving rain, Officer Angwang spoke briefly to the assembled reporters: “Thanks for all the people who trusted me, since the beginning.”周四在法院外,安旺警官在倾盆大雨中对聚集在一起的记者简短地表示:“感谢所有从一开始就信任我的人。”John Marzulli, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s office, declined to comment.美国检察官办公室发言人约翰·马尔祖利拒绝置评。Officer Angwang’s journey to Thursday’s court hearing was laid out in charging documents, prosecutors’ memos and letters submitted by Officer Angwang’s lawyer, John F. Carman, seeking his client’s release from pretrial custody and for the charges to be dropped.指控文件、检察官备忘录和安旺警官的律师约翰·卡曼提交的信件,记录了昂旺警官走到周四法庭听证会这一步的历程。律师卡曼寻求释放当事人的审前羁押并撤销指控。An ethnic Tibetan, Officer Angwang was born in China. After coming to the United States as a teenager on a cultural exchange visa, he returned to Tibet and was arrested, detained and beaten by Chinese authorities.昂旺警官是出生在中国的藏人。十几岁时,他持文化交流签证来到美国,回到西藏后被中国当局逮捕、拘留和殴打。Beijing considers Tibet, an autonomous region in China, to be part of its historical empire, but many Tibetans believe the region was illegally incorporated into China in 1951 and have pressed for independence. The Chinese government has long viewed the Tibetan independence movement as a threat to its stability. The Justice Department has accused China of using agents in the United States to spy on Tibetan dissidents.西藏是中国的一个自治区,北京方面认为它在历史上就属于中国。但许多藏人认为该地区是在1951年被非法并入中国的,并要求独立。中国政府长期以来一直将西藏独立运动视为对其稳定的威胁。美国司法部指责中国在美国通过特工监视西藏异见人士。Mr. Angwang returned to the United States at age 17 and successfully applied for political asylum. He joined the Marines in 2009, spent seven months in Afghanistan, and in 2010 became a naturalized U.S. citizen.昂旺17岁重返美国,成功申请到政治庇护。他于2009年加入海军陆战队,被派遣到阿富汗七个月,并于2010年成为归化美国公民。After an honorable discharge in 2014, he enlisted in the Army Reserve, where he had what prosecutors described as secret-level security clearance. He joined the New York Police Department in 2016 and served on patrol, later working as a community affairs officer in the 111th Precinct in Queens.在2014年光荣退伍后,他加入了陆军预备役,在那里他获得了检察官所说的秘密级安全许可。他于2016年加入纽约警察局并担任巡警,后来在皇后区第111分居担任社区事务官。On Sept. 21, 2020, F.B.I. agents arrested Officer Angwang at his home in Williston Park, on Long Island, where he lived with his wife and infant daughter. He was charged in a criminal complaint with acting as an agent of a foreign government without notifying the attorney general — a charge derived from old spying statutes, known as “espionage lite” — and with obstruction, wire fraud and false statements.2020年9月21日,FBI特工在昂旺警官位于长岛威利斯顿公园的家中逮捕了他,他与妻子和年幼的女儿住在那里。一项刑事诉讼指控他在未通知司法部长的情况下充当外国政府的代理人,这项源自旧间谍法规的指控被称为“低级别间谍”。他还被指控妨碍公务、电汇欺诈和虚假陈述。The charges came amid growing concern on the part of law enforcement authorities in the United States and other Western countries about Beijing’s efforts to monitor Chinese nationals abroad, including dissidents. The Justice Department under former President Donald J. Trump had an initiative aimed at fighting security threats posed by Chinese academics and scientists, which yielded several cases — several of which the government lost or withdrew — before it was formally ended last year.这些指控提出之际,美国和其他西方国家的执法当局越来越担心北京在海外监控中国公民的努力,包括对持不同政见者。前总统特朗普任内的司法部发起了一项旨在打击中国学者和科学家构成的安全威胁的倡议,该倡议在去年正式取消之前已经审理了几起案件——其中有几起政府败诉或被撤回。Prosecutors said Officer Angwang communicated regularly with two consular officials in New York, including one whose department was responsible for “neutralizing sources of potential opposition to the policies and authority” of the Chinese government.检察官说,安旺警官定期与纽约的两名领事官员沟通,其中一人的部门负责“消除可能反对中国政府政策和权威的来源”。The criminal complaint cited several recorded phone calls between Officer Angwang and the unnamed official, in which Officer Angwang discussed his successful recruitment as an agent of China, saying the official’s supervisors in China should “know you have recruited one in the police department.”刑事起诉书引用了昂旺警官与这名未具名官员之间的几段电话录音,其中昂旺警官谈到了自己被成功招募为中国代理人,称这名官员在中国的上司应该“知道你在警察局招募到了一个”。The complaint claimed that Officer Angwang invited one of the officials to attend Police Department events “to raise our country’s soft power,” and recommended the officials visit a new Tibetan community center in Queens, saying it could help with spotting potential “intelligence assets.”起诉书称,昂旺警官邀了其中一名官员参加了警察局的活动,以“提升我国的软实力”,并推荐他们参观皇后区一处新的藏人社区中心,称这有助于挖掘潜在的“情报人员”。He lobbied for a 10-year travel visa from China, where his parents still lived, and argued that such visas would be helpful in recruiting other intelligence assets, according to prosecutors’ early court filings.检方早期提交给法庭的文件显示,为了推动中国给他10年签证,他向这些官员进行游说,称此类签证将有助于招募其他情报人员。他的父母仍住在中国。He was also accused of lying on a government questionnaire for national security positions, saying he had no contact with foreign nationals.他还被指控在政府对国家安全职务的问卷调查中撒谎,称自己与外籍人士并无接触。Prosecutors sought his detention, citing his “significant family and community ties” to China and “extremely unusual and suspicious” wire transfers to and from the country. They also suggested that the manner in which he obtained U.S. citizenship “suggests he committed a fraud on the United States.”检方提出将他拘捕,理由是他与中国有“重要的家庭和社会关系”,同时还与中国有“极不寻常和可疑的”电汇往来。检方还表示,他获得美国公民身份的方式“表明他对美国进行了欺诈”。He was ordered detained, and sent to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. Days later, Mr. Carman wrote the first of what would be four motions for his release. He also fought back against the claims in the indictment, noting, for one, that the Chinese official with whom Officer Angwang had communicated was in charge of visas for Tibetans seeking to travel to and from China.他被下令拘捕,送往布鲁克林的大都会拘留中心。不久后,卡曼起草了要求将他释放的四份动议中的第一份。他还对起诉书中的指控进行了反驳,其中一项是,昂旺警官联络的那位中国官员负责的工作是为往返中国的藏人办理签证。“Mr. Angwang, like many other American Tibetans, was beholden to” the official, Mr. Carman wrote. “It is in this light that the Court should assess Mr. Angwang’s solicitous tone and accommodating posture.”“与许多其他美籍藏人一样,昂旺有求于这名官员,”卡曼写道。“有鉴于此,法庭应评估昂旺的殷勤语气和迎合姿态。”It took more than five months to secure Mr. Angwang’s release to home confinement, over the objections of prosecutors. Since his arrest, people driving by Officer Angwang’s home would yell slurs in his direction, his lawyer said.在检方反对下,昂旺过了五个多月才获释,开始家庭监禁。他的律师说,自被捕以来,开车经过他家的人会朝昂旺警官的方向大声辱骂。Much of the government’s evidence and investigation was cloaked from public view — and from Officer Angwang himself — because of strict rules governing classified materials gathered through national security surveillance.因为通过国家安全监控收集到的机密材料有严格的管理规定,政府的大部分证据和调查并未对外公布,昂旺警官本人也不知情。An October 2022 trial date was pushed back to February 2023, as prosecutors sought time to review tranches of evidence. This month, the trial date was pushed again, to July.由于检方需要更多时间审查部分证据,原定于2022年10月的开庭日期被推迟至2023年2月。本月,开庭日期又被推迟到7月。Then, in a filing late last Friday, prosecutors asked Eric R. Komitee, the judge overseeing the case, to dismiss the charges.随后,在上周五晚间提交的文件中,检方请求负责审理此案的法官埃里克·科米蒂驳回指控。“As a result of our continued investigation, the government obtained additional information bearing on the charges,” the government wrote. “Having assessed the evidence as a whole in light of that information,” they wrote, “the government hereby moves, in the interests of justice, to dismiss the indictment.”“作为我们持续调查的结果,政府获得了与这些指控相关的额外信息,”政府写道。“在依据这些信息对证据进行整体评估之后,”他们表示,“政府特此动议撤销起诉,以维护司法公正。”At Thursday morning’s hearing, Judge Komitee pressed the assembled prosecutors to say anything about their request beyond the “fairly oblique” language in last week’s filing.在周四上午的听证会上,科米蒂法官要求在场检察官就此申请发表看法,但不能使用上周提交文件中“相当隐晦”的语言。“I understand the limit on your ability to speak,” Judge Komitee said, citing “the classified information overlay.”“我了解你们的发言受到限制,”科米蒂法官在提到“受制于机密信息”时表示。J. Matthew Haggans, an assistant U.S. attorney, said the decision was “based on an assessment” of the evidence “holistically.”美国助理检察官J·马修·哈根斯表示,这一决定是基于对证据的“全面评估”。Judge Komitee started to speak, then paused. “We all remember well, of course, the fanfare with which this case was brought initially,” and the “fairly protracted” litigation over Officer Angwang’s detention, the judge said.科米蒂法官在开始发言时停顿了一下。“我们当然都清楚记得此案最初引起的轰动,”以及围绕昂旺警官被捕的“相当漫长”的诉讼程序,这位法官说。“Everyone sitting in the well of this courtroom, including the court himself, owes a debt of gratitude to Mr. Carman for his doggedness” in pursuing his client’s pretrial release, the judge said. “We would obviously be sitting here in a very different posture today had Mr. Angwang been incarcerated for the duration of this case.”“包括本法庭在内,在场的每一个人都应感谢卡曼坚持不懈地”要求审前释放他的当事人,法官说。“若昂旺在本案审理期间一直被监禁,我们今天显然会以截然不同的姿态坐在这里。”He credited the prosecutors with acknowledging the case had dissolved, rather than pressing ahead to trial.他意识到检方承认此案已经了结,而不是要继续推进审理。“Better late, as they say, than never,” Judge Komitee said.“正如那句话,迟做总比不做好,”科米蒂法官说。Outside the courthouse, Mr. Carman said he and his client were “working through” a possible return to active duty police work, and they were reviewing potential possible legal action against the government.卡曼在法院外表示,他和他的当事人“正在考虑”重返现役警察岗位的可能性,同时也在评估可能对政府采取的法律行动。“The government has been very sparing in their description of the reasons why they dismissed the indictment, because of the classified information that was at play in this case,” Mr. Carman said. “Mr. Angwang was innocent from the very beginning.”“政府在描述他们撤销起诉的原因时非常谨慎,因为此案涉及机密信息,”卡曼说。“昂旺从头到尾都是无辜的。”Rebecca Davis O'Brien自纽约报道执法和法院相关新闻。她曾在《华尔街日报》工作,2019年她参与的团队因报道他人代表前总统特朗普向两名女性秘密支付封口费而获得普利策国内报道奖。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 纽约藏裔警官涉谍案:法庭批准检方撤销指控


储百亮, JOY DONG, AMY CHANG CHIEN2023年1月19日坐在婴儿车上手持国旗的儿童,摄于北京2019年国庆节期间。出生率下降和人口老龄化已使中国陷入人口困境。 Gilles Sabrie for The New York TimesChina’s leaders have long known that the country is nearing a demographic crossroads. Policymakers have warned that China must prepare for a slowly shrinking population and an era of fewer workers and more retirees. State media have urged Newbie trader couples to seize the opportunity to have two or three children under relaxed family-size rules, to soften the looming economic crunch.中国领导层早就知道该国正在接近一个人口拐点。政策制定者警告,中国必须为人口萎缩以及劳动力减少、退休人员增多的时代做好准备。官媒已敦促年轻夫妇抓紧时机生两到三个孩子,政府为缓解即将出现的经济困境,已放开了对生育的限制。And yet the sense of incipient crisis grew on Tuesday, when the government confirmed that the nation’s population shrank last year for the first time in six decades, sooner and sharper than many experts had forecast.然而,当政府在周二证实,中国人口在去年出现了60年来的首次下降,拐点比许多专家的预测来得更快、更突然时,危机初现的感受变得更加强烈了。Even if Chinese officials have warned that a demographic Rubicon was approaching, their preparations have not kept pace with the long-term needs of an aging society, in the eyes of many experts and Chinese people.尽管中国官员已对人口将出现无法逆转的拐点发出了警告,但在许多专家和中国民众看来,他们还没有为老龄化社会的长期需求做好充分准备。China’s abrupt abandonment of “zero Covid” controls exposed a government ill prepared for an explosion in infections. And, similarly, the mounting population pressures may reveal a government that has not done enough to avoid tough choices in coming decades over rival priorities. Between the demands of caring for Newbie trader and old. Between paying for social welfare and building up China’s technological and military might.中国突然放弃新冠“清零”政策的做法暴露了政府对感染的暴发准备不足。与之类似,不断增长的人口压力可能会暴露出政府尚未采取足够措施来避免未来几十年可能面临的局面,即被迫在相互竞争的优先事项上做出艰难选择。比如,如何满足照料幼童与照料老年人的不同需求。是把钱花在支付社会福利上,还是花在建设技术和军事实力上。China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has partly sought to tackle the long-term economic and social pressures from a shrinking, aging society more by lifting the limits on family size. He has taken steps to build a strong social safety net and announced a new phase of “high-quality” growth less dependent on legions of cheap, abundant migrant workers from the countryside.中国领导人习近平已在一定程度上寻求通过取消对生育的限制,来缓解一个人口不断缩小的老龄化社会所面临的长期经济和社会压力。他已采取步骤建立一个强大的社会安全网,并宣布经济进入了一个“高质量”增长的新阶段,减少了对廉价、充裕的农民工大军的依赖。“The population issue is the most important issue for the future and yet the one that is most easily neglected,” Ren Zeping, a former chief economist for the Evergrande Group, a massive housing developer, who has studied the looming demographic crunch, wrote in a widely circulated comment after the figures were released Tuesday. Mr. Ren called for more energetic policy-making, including birth subsidies, stronger paternity and maternity leave, and improved protection of women’s rights in the workplace.“人口问题是未来最重要又最容易被忽视的问题,”任泽平在周二的数据公布后写道,他的这条评论在网上广泛流传。任泽平曾在大型房地产开发商恒大集团担任首席经济学家,研究过迫在眉睫的人口危机。他呼吁政府制定更积极的政策,包括生育补贴、更长的产假和陪产假,以及加强对职场女性权益的保护。在北京一个公园里晨练的老年人,摄于2022年。After the latest population statistics were released, many suggested in social media posts and in interviews that the government’s moves may be too little and too late. To many, the government has barely begun to tackle the deeper reasons many Newbie trader couples choose to have one child or none at all, like the costs of rearing and educating children and lack of substantial government support, especially for women, at home and in the workplace.最新的人口统计数据公布后,许多发在社交媒体上的帖子和接受采访的人都暗示,政府的措施也许并不足够,且为时已晚。在许多人看来,政府几乎还没有开始着手解决许多年轻夫妇选择只生一个孩子、或一个孩子都不要的更深层原因,比如抚养成本和教育成本,以及缺乏政府实质性的支持,无论是在家里还是在工作场所,尤其是对女性而言。“I’d like to have a kid, but the living pressures are just too much,” Wu Yilan, a 34-year-old shopkeeper in Beijing, said in a telephone interview. She said she had discussed it with a former boyfriend. “If I settle down with a partner, I’d probably think that one child is enough.”“想生孩子,但是生活压力实在太大,”现年34岁的北京店主吴一兰(音)在接受电话采访时说。她说她和前男友讨论过这个问题。“如果有对象,大概想生一个就好。”Anxiety and argument about China’s new demographic era have been building as birthrates have slowed, especially in recent years. It has now hit a turning point: China’s population in 2022 fell by 850,000, with more deaths than births for the first time since a famine in the early 1960s caused by Mao Zedong’s calamitous social experiment, Great Leap Forward.随着出生率的下降,有关中国人口新时代的焦虑和争论一直在加剧,尤其是在最近几年,现已到了一个转折点:中国人口在2022年减少了85万,这是自20世纪60年代初以来,中国的死亡人数首次超过了出生人数。上次人口减少是毛泽东灾难性的社会实验“大跃进”导致的饥荒造成的。Chinese demographers, economists and business leaders have offered a number of ideas to support a growing number of older people and encourage couples to have more children. In 2016, the government eased the “one-child” policy that had been enforced for over three decades, allowing families to have two children. In 2021, it increased the limit to three.在如何赡养越来越多的老年人、鼓励夫妇生更多孩子方面,中国的人口学家、经济学家和工商界领袖已提出了许多想法。政府已在2016年取消了实施三十多年的“独生子女”政策,允许夫妇生两个孩子,后在2021年提高到允许生三个。Even so, most couples still stick to having one child, while two is common in the countryside. Many Newbie trader people, especially women, remain skeptical that the government is going to make it easier for them to both have children and remain in the formal work force.尽管如此,大多数夫妇仍只生一个孩子,虽然两个孩子的情况在农村比较普遍。许多年轻人,尤其是女性,对政府是否会让她们生孩子后还能保住工作变得更容易持怀疑态度。由于经济和社会压力,中国越来越多的年轻人只生一个孩子或一个孩子都不要。Jennie Liu, a 32-year-old podcast platform manager in Shanghai, said that she and her boyfriend agreed that they would like to raise one or two children — but only if they could “run,” a Chinese buzzword for moving abroad.上海一个播客平台的经理、现年32岁的珍妮·刘(音)说,她和男友同意生一到两个孩子,但前提是他们能“润”出去。“润”是个目前流行的词,指的是离开中国。“If we can run to somewhere with better welfare and an improved overall social environment where a child can obtain residency status, then we may think about having a kid,” she said. In China, “the aging population and decline of the working-age population will definitely put pressure on government finances.”“如果润去一个福利更好、社会环境整体更优、小孩可以拿身份的地方,可能会考虑生一个小孩,”她说。中国的“人口老龄化和适龄劳动人口的下降,未来一定会对财政有压力”。The societal issues run deep. After Tuesday’s data release, some on the Chinese internet said that despite government promises of a fairer deal for women, many employers did not want to employ women in better, steady jobs, because they did not want to deal with maternity leave and child care.社会的问题根深蒂固。周二的数据公布后,中国互联网上有些人表示,尽管政府承诺让女性得到更公平的待遇,但许多雇主由于不想考虑产假和育儿的问题,对于更好、更稳定的职位不愿考虑女性。“In the job market, they worry that if you’re 23-30, you’ll get married and have a kid, that if you’re 30-35 you’ll have a second or third one, and if you’re over 35, then sorry,” read one comment. “This kind of social setting is already the best form of contraception. All those policies to encourage births and open up will amount to nothing.”“职场23-30岁怕你去结婚生子,30-35岁怕你生二胎三胎。35岁+不好意思,连公务员和体制内都带头不招人了,”网上一条评论写道。“这样的社会环境,就已经是最好的避孕药。所有的催生和放开政策都将无济于事。”The measures championed by Chinese policymakers often neglect the broader pressures on women, especially those from rural and working-class backgrounds, which put them in a painful bind between family and work, said Yige Dong, an assistant professor of sociology at the University at Buffalo, which is part of the State University of New York system.中国政策制定者倡导的措施往往忽视了女性面临的更广泛压力,尤其是那些来自农村和工人阶级背景的女性,这让她们在家庭和工作之间陷入痛苦的两难,布法罗大学社会学助理教授董一格说。该校是纽约州立大学系统的一部分。Families face intense pressure to get children into better schools, with much of the burden falling on mothers who are often also often expected to care for aged parents and parents-in-law.家庭面临着让孩子上最好的学校的巨大压力,这种压力大部分落在母亲身上,她们还经常被指望照顾年迈的父母和公婆。“They are caught between the demand to go to work and the demands for intensive parenting,” Ms. Dong said, citing interviews with female migrant workers in central China.“她们夹在需要工作与集约型养育的需求之间,”董一格说,这是她采访中国中部的女性农民工得出的结论。“On the one hand, China is talking about this as a crisis of a declining fertility rate, and on the other hand, they are cracking down on feminism,” she said in a telephone interview. “With those two things in contradiction, how can you convince the next generation of Newbie trader women — who have their own aspirations — to go into marriage?”“一方面,中国将女性权益作为生育率下降危机的因素来谈论,另一方面,政府正在打击女权主义,”董一格在接受电话采访时说。“由于这两种做法相互矛盾,政府怎样才能说服下一代年轻女性结婚生子呢?她们都有自己的抱负。”A shrinking, aging society is far from unique to China, even in Asia, and the effects will unfold over decades. Even so, China’s heavy restrictions on family size in past decades mean that the country is confronting these pressures much sooner in its economic takeoff than, say, Japan or South Korea.人口萎缩、老龄化的社会不只是中国独有的问题。仅就亚洲而言,这个问题的影响也将在几十年的时间里逐渐显现出来。尽管如此,中国过去几十年实行的严格计划生育政策意味着,中国在经济腾飞阶段面临人口压力的时间,比日本或韩国来得更早。对许多中国人来说,政府还没有开始解决许多年轻夫妇选择只生一个孩子或不生孩子的深层原因。The resulting economic and population pressures will erode China’s strength in coming decades and could encourage its leaders to become more aggressive before they feel their national power has ebbed, says Michael Beckley, an associate professor at Tufts University and co-author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, a new book that lays out this argument.这个问题带来的经济和人口压力将在未来几十年削弱中国的实力,并可能导致中国领导人在感到国力衰退之前变得更好斗,塔夫茨大学副教授迈克尔·贝克利说道,他在与别人合著的新书《危险地区:与中国的未来冲突》(Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China)中阐述了这个论点。“China’s proposed demographic reforms are drops in the bucket. They are swamped by the fact that China will lose 5 to 10 million working-age adults and gain 5 to 10 million senior citizens every year for the foreseeable future,” Professor Beckley said in emailed answers to questions. “You can’t compensate for that kind of demographic crunch simply by raising the retirement age.”“中国提出的改善人口结构的措施是杯水车薪。使他们不堪承受的一个事实是,在可预见的未来,中国每年将失去500万到1000万工作年龄人口,同时增加500万到1000万老年人口,”贝克利在通过电子邮件回答记者提问时写道。“不能只靠提高退休年龄来弥补这种人口困境。”Other scholars have disputed Professor Beckley’s forecast of a demographically led decline in Chinese power. China, they note, could counter population pressures by providing better training for workers, improving their productivity and by increasing innovation and automation across industries.其他学者对贝克利预测中国实力将受人口因素影响出现衰落的看法提出异议。他们指出,中国能够通过对工人进行更好的培训、提高他们的生产力,以及加强跨行业的创新和自动化,来应对人口压力问题。But few disagree that such changes would demand much more spending commitments from Chinese leaders, who also want to invest heavily in military modernization, technological advancement and internal security.但大家几乎一致认为,这些做法需要中国领导人做出更多的支出承诺,同时他们也希望在军事现代化、技术进步和国内安全方面投入更多资金。Mr. Xi has not been blindsided by these challenges. Beijing has unfurled policies to encourage expanded senior care, and promised more social support for women who want to have children. Since citizens have repeatedly expressed public anger over Forex and Stock Speculatingual harassment at universities, companies and media outlets, the government has also promised to crack down.习近平对这些挑战并非毫无准备。中国政府已推出了鼓励扩大养老服务的措施,并承诺为想生育的女性提供更多的社会支持。由于人们对大学、公司和媒体机构的性骚扰多次公开表示愤怒,政府还承诺要予以打击。While Mr. Xi has endorsed equality between the Forex and Stock Speculatinges and repeated Mao’s dictum that “women hold up half the sky,” he has also encouraged respect for traditional family roles.虽然习近平表示支持男女平等,并重提了毛泽东的名言“妇女能顶半边天”,但他也鼓励尊重女性在家庭中的传统作用。一名女子抱着孩子观看北京的升旗仪式,摄于2018年。越来越多的中国女性为实现自己的抱负放弃生孩子。“The broad number of women must conscientiously shoulder the burden of caring for the elderly and nurturing the Newbie trader, educating children, and playing a role in building family virtues,” he said in 2013.“广大妇女要自觉肩负起尊老爱幼、教育子女的责任,在家庭美德建设中发挥作用,”他在2013年说。But framing China’s population pressures as a matter of attitude issues among Newbie trader women distracts from the deeper social and economic pressures on them, said Ms. Dong, the professor from the University at Buffalo.但是,把中国的人口压力表述为年轻女性的态度问题,分散了人们对她们承受的更深层次社会和经济压力的注意力,布法罗大学教授董一格说。“It’s a political issue, not a question of social engineering,” she said. “The blame is put on families and individuals, especially Newbie trader women who are unwilling to get married, but they don’t talk about the role of the state and its policies.”“这是政治问题,而不是社会工程问题,”她说。“他们把问题归咎于家庭和个人,尤其是不愿结婚生子的年轻女性,而不提国家的作用和政策。”储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼,在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前,他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他: @ChuBailiang。Joy Dong常驻香港,报道中国大陆和香港的新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@JoyDongHK。Amy Chang Chien在台湾为《纽约时报》报道中国大陆和台湾新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她: @amy_changchien。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 一个人口萎缩、老龄化的中国可能将自己逼入绝境

General News 经济新闻 / 中国的衰落已毋庸置疑,然后呢?
« on: January 23, 2023, 12:00:52 AM »

BRET STEPHENS2023年1月19日 Thomas Peter/ReutersFor years, I’ve been writing columns predicting China’s decline. This week, the decline became undeniable. The road downhill will not be smooth — not for it or for us.多年来,我的专栏文章一直在预测中国的衰落。本周,衰落已是毋庸置疑。下坡路不会是平坦的——无论是对中国还是对我们。The news is that the death rate in China outnumbered the birthrate for the first time in more than 60 years. Last time, it was famine caused by Mao Zedong’s economic policies that led to an estimated 36 million deaths from starvation. Now, it’s Newbie trader Chinese couples who, like their peers in much of the developed world, don’t want children.消息称:中国的死亡率60多年来首次超过出生率。上次发生这样的情况是由于毛泽东的经济政策造成的饥荒,估计有3600万人死于饥饿。现在则是因为,中国的年轻夫妇和许多发达国家的同龄人一样,不想要孩子。So far, the demographic downshift has been small — 9.56 million births last year against 10.41 million deaths, according to Chinese government statistics. That’s out of a total population of 1.4 billion. The country will not be running out of people anytime soon.到目前为止,人口下降幅度很小——根据中国政府的统计数据,去年有956万人出生,而死亡人数为1041万人。总人口有14亿。这个国家的人口不会很快耗尽。But the longer trend lines look awful for Beijing. In 1978, when Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms got underway, China’s median age was 20.1 years. In 2021, it was 37.9, exceeding that of the United States. China’s fertility rate is 1.18. The replacement rate necessary to maintain a stable population is 2.1. As of 2018, there were an estimated 34 million more males in China than females — the result of a one-child policy that led couples to abort girls at a higher rate than boys. China’s working-age population has been shrinking for years; a government spokesman estimated that it will fall to 700 million by the middle of the century.但长期趋势对北京来说似乎很糟糕。1978年,邓小平启动经济改革时,中国的中位年龄为20.1岁。2021年为37.9,超过美国。中国的生育率为1.18。而维持人口稳定所需的替代率是2.1。截至2018年,估计中国男性比女性多3400万——这是独生子女政策的结果,该政策导致夫妇人工流掉女孩的比例高于男孩。中国的劳动适龄人口多年来一直在减少;一位政府发言人估计,到本世纪中叶,这一数字将降至7亿。If you think the world has too many people already, then all this might sound like good news. It’s not. China is increasingly likely to grow old before it gets rich, consigning hundreds of millions of Chinese to a penurious and often lonely old age. A declining population generally correlates with economic decline — roughly a one-percentage-point decline in economic growth for every percentage-point decline in population, according to Ruchir Sharma, a former head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley. And China, both as an export hub and as a vast market, has been a major driver of global economic growth for four decades. Its weakness will ripple through the world economy.如果你认为世界人口已太多,那么这一切听起来可能是个好消息。但并非如此。中国越来越有可能未富先老,使数亿中国人过上贫困且往往非常孤独的晚年。摩根士丹利前新兴市场负责人鲁奇尔·夏尔马表示,人口下降通常与经济衰退相关——人口每下降一个百分点,经济增长就会下降约一个百分点。而中国作为出口枢纽和巨大的市场,四十年来一直是全球经济增长的主要推动力。它的疲软将波及整个世界经济。But the scariest aspect of China’s decline is geopolitical. When democracies experience economic problems, they tend to become inward looking and risk averse. When dictatorships do, they often become externally focused and risk inclined. Regimes that can’t, or won’t, address domestic discontents through political and economic reforms often try to do so through foreign adventures.但中国衰落最可怕的影响是在地缘政治方面。当民主国家遇到经济问题时,它们往往会变得关注内部和规避风险。当独裁政权遇到经济问题时,它们往往会专注于外部并倾向冒险。不能或不会通过政治和经济改革解决国内不满的政权,通常会尝试通过海外冒险来解决问题。That’s a point worth thinking about now that Beijing is also reporting the slowest rate of economic growth in nearly four decades. The immediate cause here is Xi Jinping’s catastrophic mishandling of the Covid crisis — the punitive lockdowns, the rejection of foreign vaccines, the abrupt end of restrictions, the constant lying.何况北京还报告了近40年来最慢的经济增长率,这是一个值得思考的问题。经济增长缓慢的直接原因是习近平对新冠危机的灾难性处理不当——苛刻的封锁、拒绝外国疫苗、突然放开、持续撒谎。But China’s economy was already in trouble before the pandemic: a real estate bubble at the point of bursting, record high capital flight, the end of Hong Kong as a relatively free city and Chinese companies like Huawei increasingly unwelcome in Western countries on account of espionage and intellectual-property-theft concerns.但中国经济在大流行之前就已经陷入困境:房地产泡沫即将破灭,资本外逃创历史新高,香港不再是一个相对自由的城市,华为等中国公司因间谍活动和知识产权盗窃问题在西方国家越来越不受欢迎。A pragmatic government might have been able to tackle these challenges. But Mr. Xi has appointed a gang of yes men to the Politburo for his unprecedented third term as supreme leader. If — or as — economic conditions deteriorate, they are likelier to find answers to their problems in aggression rather than reform. Think of inflationary Argentina on the eve of the invasion of the Falklands or bankrupt Iraq just before the invasion of Kuwait.一个务实的政府或许能够应对这些挑战。但习近平史无前例地第三次担任最高领导人,任命了一批应声虫进入政治局。如果经济状况恶化——也可以说正在恶化,他们更有可能通过侵略而不是改革来解决问题。想一想在入侵福克兰群岛前夕通货膨胀的阿根廷,或者在入侵科威特之前破产的伊拉克。What should the United States do? Three things.美国该怎么办?三件事。First, deterrence. The better Kyiv does militarily against Moscow, the more deeply the lesson will be learned in Beijing that taking Taipei wouldn’t be as easy as it seems. The sooner Taiwan acquires large stores of easy-to-use, hard-to-target weapons such as Stinger and Javelin missiles, the more hesitant China’s military planners will be to step on a sea urchin. The more the United States does to help Japan, Australia and other allies strengthen their militaries, the greater the deterrent effect it will have on China’s regional ambitions.第一,威慑力。基辅在军事对抗莫斯科方面做得越好,北京就会越深刻地吸取教训——拿下台北并不像看起来那么容易。台湾越早获得大量易于使用、难以被锁定目标的武器,如毒刺导弹和标枪导弹,中国的军事规划人员就越不会轻易踩雷。美国越是帮助日本、澳大利亚等盟国加强军事力量,对中国的地区野心的威慑作用就越大。The administration is doing much of this already. It needs to do more of it, much faster.政府已经在这方面做了大量工作。它需要做得更多、更快。Second, trade détente. Trying to punish Beijing via Donald Trump’s tariffs aggravates the relationship while harming both sides economically. We should offer to roll them back in exchange for guarantees from China that it will end its hacking campaigns against U.S. institutions.二是贸易缓和。试图通过特朗普的关税来惩罚北京,这只会令双方关系更加紧张,同时在经济上损害双方。我们应该提出撤销这些关税,以换取中国保证会结束对美国机构的黑客攻击活动。If it cheats, the tariffs can be reimposed and doubled.如果中国弄虚作假,可以重新征收关税并加倍。Finally, human rights. At every opportunity, the State Department should speak up loudly for China’s dissidents. Jimmy Lai and Qin Yongmin, among others, should be as familiar to Americans as Andrei Sakharov and Natan Sharansky were in the 1970s. Their names should be raised at every bilateral meeting with Chinese officials not only out of concern for their lives but also as reminders that our fundamental differences with Beijing aren’t strategic. They’re moral.最后是人权。国务院应该抓住每一个机会,为中国的持不同政见者大声疾呼。黎智英和秦永民等名字,对于美国人来说,应该和1970年代的安德烈·萨哈罗夫和纳坦·夏兰斯基一样耳熟能详。在与中国官员的每次双边会谈中都应该提到他们的名字,这不仅是出于对他们生命安全的关注,也是为了提醒我们,我们与北京的根本分歧不是战略性的。而是道义上的。In the long run, the greatest hope we can have for China is its people. The greatest investment we can make in the coming decades of turbulence is to keep faith with them.从长远来看,我们对中国最大的希望是其人民。在未来几十年的动荡中,我们能做的最大投资就是对他们保持信心。Bret Stephens自2017年4月起担任《纽约时报》观点与评论版面的专栏作家。他于2013年在《华尔街日报》工作时获普利策评论奖,此前还曾担任《耶路撒冷邮报》主编。欢迎在Facebook上关注他。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 中国的衰落已毋庸置疑,然后呢?


CHRISTOPHER CLAREY2023年1月17日商竣程说:“早在六、七岁的时候,我的目标就是成为一名职业网球运动员。” Paul Crock/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMELBOURNE, Australia — Shang Juncheng could have chosen his father’s sport of soccer or his mother’s sport of table tennis. His father, Shang Yi, was a leading Chinese midfielder, good enough to play for the national team. His mother, Wu Na, was a world champion in doubles.澳大利亚墨尔本——商竣程本可以选择像父亲那样踢足球或像母亲那样打乒乓球。他的父亲商毅是中国顶级中场球员,曾入选国家队。他的母亲邬娜是乒乓球双打世界冠军。Instead, their son became a tennis player, leaving home in Beijing at age 11 to train at an academy in Florida.然而,他们的儿子成了一名网球运动员,11岁时离开北京的家去佛罗里达的一所学院训练。On Monday in Melbourne, it looked as if he had made a wise choice. Shang, a 17-year-old qualifier and the Newbie traderest player in the men’s draw, showed rare skill and maturity as he made his Grand Slam tournament debut and became the first Chinese man to win an Australian Open singles match in the Open era.周一,在墨尔本的赛场上,似乎可以看出他当初的选择是明智的。17岁的商竣程通过了资格赛,是男子组最年轻的选手,在大满贯首秀中展现出罕见的球技和成熟,成为公开赛时代第一位在澳网单打比赛中取胜的中国男选手。He did it with a gritty, often pretty victory, 6-2, 6-4, 6-7 (2), 7-5, on opening day over Oscar Otte, an unseeded 29-year-old German with a booming serve and a full beard. Shang, who will face the American Frances Tiafoe in the second round, did it on Court 13 with hundreds of fans packed into the grandstand and shouting encouragement in Mandarin and English.他打得既坚决又漂亮,以6-2、6-4、6-7(2)、7-5的比分在第一轮击败了29岁的奥斯卡·奥特,后者留着络腮胡,是一名擅长大力发球的德国非种子选手。商竣程在第13号球场完成了比赛,看台上的数百名球迷用普通话和英语大声鼓励他。他将在第二轮迎战美国选手弗朗西斯·蒂亚福。“I felt like I was playing at home,” he said.“我感觉就像在主场比赛,”他说。Shang, nicknamed Jerry, speaks both languages fluently after spending so much of his youth in the United States. Though he was interested in soccer in his early years, he said his mother suggested tennis because she believed there were fewer injuries. Shang first played on an indoor hardcourt in Beijing and said he liked it from the start.商竣程绰号杰瑞,青春期大部分在美国度过,能流利地讲两种语言。尽管他早年对足球很感兴趣,但他说他的母亲建议他打网球,她认为这样受伤会少一点。商竣程先是在北京的室内硬地球场打球,他说他从一开始就非常喜欢这项运动。“For me, the main goal was to become a professional tennis player, even when I was 6 or 7 years old,” he said in an interview. “We started practicing in China in Beijing. That’s where I started on an indoor hardcourt, and my dad used to play soccer in Spain, so he really liked the system and the way the Spanish athletes work.”“早在六、七岁的时候,我的目标就是成为职业网球运动员,”他在接受采访时说。“我们一开始在中国北京练习。在北京,我从室内硬地球场开始,我父亲曾经在西班牙踢足球,所以他真的很喜欢那里的体系和西班牙运动员的工作方式。”But instead of basing themselves in Spain, the family chose for Shang to train at the Emilio Sanchez Academy operated by the former Spanish ATP player Emilio Sanchez in Naples, Fla.但他们并没有在西班牙定居,而是选择让商竣程在佛罗里达州那不勒斯的前西班牙ATP球员埃米利奥·桑切斯经营的同名学院进行训练。Shang later moved to IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., a longtime hub of the game, and he is managed by IMG, the agency that represents several other Chinese players, including Li Na, who is retired.商竣程后来转到位于佛罗里达州布雷登顿的IMG学院,那里是历史悠久的网球训练中心。他由IMG管理,该机构代表了其他几名中国球员,包括已退役的李娜。Li became the first Chinese Grand Slam singles champion, winning the 2011 French Open and then the 2014 Australian Open. The Chinese men have long lagged behind, and progress has been slow. In 2013 at the Australian Open, Wu Di became the first Chinese man to play in a major tournament in the Open era. It took nearly a decade for a Chinese man to win a singles match in a major.李娜是首位中国大满贯单打冠军,赢得了2011年法网和2014年澳网冠军。中国男子网球长期落在后面,进步缓慢。2013年澳网,吴迪成为公开赛时代首位出战男子网球重大赛事的中国选手。将近十年后,中国男子选手才首次在大满贯单打比赛中赢球。中国选手张之臻将于周一在澳大利亚网球公开赛上迎战美国选手本·谢尔顿。But Shang, once the world’s top-ranked junior, is the Newbie traderest member of a promising new wave that includes Wu Yibing, 23, and Zhang Zhizhen, 26.但现在涌现出了23岁的吴易昺和26岁的张之臻等新一代希望之星,在这个行列中,曾在男子青少年排名世界第一的商竣程是最年轻的一员。All three were in the main draw this year in Melbourne. It is the first time three Chinese men have played singles in the same major in the Open era, which began in 1968.这三人都参加了今年在墨尔本举行的正赛。这是自1968年开始的公开赛时代以来,第一次有三名中国选手同时打进一项大满贯赛事的单打正赛。On Monday, while Shang was breaking through on Court 13, Wu was on adjacent Court 14, playing grinding rallies with Corentin Moutet of France before losing in five sets.周一,当商竣程在第13号球场取得突破时,吴易昺在相邻的第14号球场上与法国的科伦丁·穆泰进行了激烈的对决,直到第五局失利。Wu, who also trains at IMG Academy, reached the third round of last year’s U.S. Open, where Zhang lost in the first round. Now Shang, a dynamic left-hander who looks like the most promising talent of the group, has joined them at this level.同样在IMG学院训练的吴易昺在去年的美国公开赛上打进了第三轮,而张之臻在第一轮就输了。现在,充满活力的左撇子、看起来是这几个人之中最有前途的商竣程也加入了他们的行列。“Now we have three players in the top 200, and I’m happy that I’m one of them,” Shang said. “The other two are like older brothers to me and have been on the tour a lot longer than me. We do practice a lot, and we do speak about how the game is right now and how we can push forward to a higher ranking. For me, each step is a learning step right now. I’m in a Newbie trader stage of my career, only my second year playing professional tennis. So, for me, it’s just watching how they do things, like we’ve also watched Li Na and how she did things.”“现在我们有三名球员进入世界排名前200,我很高兴我是其中之一,”商竣程说。“另外两个人对我来说就像哥哥一样,参加巡回赛的时间比我长得多。我们进行了很多练习,也谈论了现在的比赛情况,以及我们如何才能提高到更高的排名。对我来说,现在的每一步都是学习的一步。我正处于职业生涯的年轻阶段,刚刚打职业网球的第二年。所以,对我来说,就是在看他们怎么做,就像我们也都看过李娜,看过她是怎么做的。”Shang wears an earring in his left ear.商竣程的左耳上戴着耳饰。“That’s something my dad had for a long time,” he said. “When I was around 10 years old, I was like, ‘I want to be like dad,’ and so we went to get it together. I’ve had it for a long time.”“我父亲戴这个有很久了,”他说。“大概10岁的时候,我想,‘我要想像爸爸一样’,所以我们一起去打了耳洞。这个已经打了很久了。”Shang said his parents nicknamed him Jerry when he was very Newbie trader after the mouse in the Tom and Jerry cartoons.商竣程说,父母在他很小的时候就给他取了个绰号叫杰瑞,取自《猫和老鼠》动画片中老鼠的名字。“Tom was the one always getting in trouble and Jerry was the smart one, so they thought it was better to choose Jerry,” Shang said.“汤姆总是陷入麻烦,杰瑞很聪明,所以他们觉得选杰瑞更好,”商竣程说。He plays tennis cleverly, changing gears and speeds often to avoid giving opponents a consistent rhythm. But his top gear is impressive, particularly when he is dictating terms with his quick-strike forehand. Against Otte, he showed some deft volleying touch, as well as plenty of composure: avoiding the temptation to rush between points and gathering himself. He finished off the victory with a bold, leaping backhand winner.他打网球很聪明,经常变换手法和速度,不让对手进入稳定的节奏。但他的顶级手法令人印象深刻,尤其是当他用正手快速击球掌控全场时。对阵奥特时,他展示了一些灵巧的截击手法,也表现出足够的沉着:避免在得分之间操之过急,并且保持镇定。他以一个大胆、跳跃的反手制胜球结束了比赛。商竣程赢得了他的第一轮比赛,打得既坚决又漂亮。“He’s a complete player,” said his new coach, Dante Bottini. “He can read the court and the game very well, so that’s what surprised me the most when I started working with him. He knows a lot about the game for someone at his age.”“他是一个全面的球员,”他的新教练但丁·博蒂尼说。“他对场地和对手有很强的理解力,这是我开始和他一起工作时最让我惊喜的。对于他这个年纪的人来说,他对这项运动了解很多。”Bottini coached the Japanese star Kei Nishikori and worked more recently with the Chilean Nicolás Jarry and the Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov, both of whom sometimes practiced with Shang at IMG Academy.博蒂尼执教过日本球星锦织圭,最近还与智利的尼古拉斯·贾里和保加利亚的格里戈尔·季米特洛夫合作,他们有时会在IMG学院与商竣程一起训练。Bottini began coaching Shang in the preseason after being recruited by Li Xi, Shang’s primary agent, a former Chinese player who was on the women’s team at the University of Virginia and was sitting courtside on Monday in a bucket hat next to Shang’s father, Yi.博蒂尼在被商竣程的首席经纪人李曦(音)招募后,开始在季前赛执教商竣程。李曦是前中国球员,曾在弗吉尼亚大学女队效力,周一,她戴着一顶渔夫帽坐在场边,旁边是商竣程的父亲商毅。Shang has had no shortage of coaches in his short career, including Marcelo Ríos, the former No. 1 from Chile who worked with Shang for a brief period last year. Though Shang won his first Challenger title in Lexington, Ky., during their collaboration, they soon split.商竣程开始职业生涯没有多久,已经有过不少教练,包括去年短暂执教过商竣程的智利前世界第一马塞洛·里奥斯。他们合作期间商竣程在肯塔基州列克星敦赢得了他的第一个挑战赛冠军,但两人很快不再共事。“It was sad it didn’t work out in the end, but he did bring things to my game,” Shang said.“很遗憾最终没有继续,但他确实为我的比赛带来了一些东西,”商竣程说。Once ranked No. 1 on the ATP Tour, Ríos, like Shang, is a left-hander, but Shang said his biggest source of inspiration has been another left-handed No. 1: Rafael Nadal.曾经在ATP排名第一的里奥斯和商竣程一样都是左撇子,但商竣程说,给他带来最大启发的是另一个左撇子世界第一:拉斐尔·纳达尔。Shang first saw him play in person at the men’s ATP event in Beijing, and though Shang said he had not returned to China since he was 14 because of the coronavirus pandemic, he is eager to play there again once the country, which is reopening, allows international tournaments like the Beijing event or the Masters 1000 in Shanghai to resume.商竣程第一次亲眼看到纳达尔是在北京举行的男子ATP比赛中。尽管商竣程表示,由于新冠,他从14岁起就没有回国,但他渴望在中国允许恢复北京的赛事或上海大师赛等国际比赛后,再次回到中国比赛。中国现在已经重新开放。“It would be great to play at home in China,” he said.“在中国主场打比赛会很棒,”他说。For now, considering the supportive atmosphere on Monday, he will have to settle for playing at home in Australia, but he should face a bigger challenge on Wednesday in Tiafoe, a U.S. Open semifinalist last year who is seeded No. 16 in Melbourne.目前,鉴于周一的场外支持气氛很好,他只能满足于把澳大利亚当作主场,但在周三,他要面临更大的挑战——蒂亚弗在去年美网打进了半决赛,在墨尔本以16号种子身份参赛。“Jerry’s obviously having a great tournament, but we need to keep his feet on the ground,” Bottini said. “He has a lot of potential, as we can all see, but we need to go little by little. I think he has a big career ahead of him.”“杰瑞在巡回赛中显然打得很棒,但我们需要让他脚踏实地,”博蒂尼说。“正如我们都看到的那样,他有很大的潜力,但我们需要一步一步地前进。我认为他前程远大。”超过25年来,Christopher Clarey自法国、西班牙和美国为《纽约时报》和《国际先驱报》报道网球与国际体育新闻。他于2021年出版了《The Master: The Long Run and Beautiful Game of Roger Federer》一书。欢迎在Twitter上关注他:@christophclarey。翻译:明斋点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 商竣程澳网创造历史,中国男子网球能否更进一步?


黄安伟2023年1月12日周一,来自美国、日本、英国和澳大利亚的空降兵参加了在日本船桥市举行的联合演习。 Issei Kato/ReutersWASHINGTON — U.S. and Japanese officials said on Wednesday that the two nations would expand their military cooperation, including improving Japan’s missile strike capabilities and making the U.S. Marine unit in that country more flexible for potential combat.华盛顿——美国和日本官员周三宣布,双方将扩大军事合作,包括提升日本的导弹打击能力,并使驻日美国海军陆战队更加灵活地应对可能发生的战斗。The changes come as both nations perceive greater threatening behavior from China and North Korea, as well as Russia. Those three countries have decades-long partnerships that they have recently affirmed in various settings, despite many nations’ condemnation of Russia over its war in Ukraine.之所以出现这些变化,是因为两国都感受到了来自中国、朝鲜以及俄罗斯更具威胁性的行为。虽然许多国家谴责俄罗斯在乌克兰发动的战争,但中朝俄近来都在不同场合确认了三国之间长达数十年之久的伙伴关系。The United States and Japan have been working in recent years to strengthen their military alliance. On Wednesday, Antony J. Blinken, the U.S. secretary of state, and Lloyd J. Austin III, the U.S. defense secretary, met with their Japanese counterparts in Washington to discuss security issues and other matters. President Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan are scheduled to meet in Washington on Friday.美国和日本近年也在努力加强其军事联盟。周三,国务卿布林肯和国防部长奥斯汀在华盛顿会见了日本同级官员,商讨安全问题和其他事项。拜登总统与日本首相岸田文雄定于周五在华盛顿会晤。“There is clear strategic alignment between the visions of President Biden and Prime Minister Kishida,” Mr. Austin said at a news conference after meetings on Wednesday.“拜登总统与岸田首相的愿景具有明确的战略一致性,”奥斯汀在周三会晤后的新闻发布会上表示。He also praised Japan’s decision to increase its annual military spending. Last month, the Kishida administration released a new national security strategy in which Japan committed to spending 2 percent of its gross domestic product on its annual defense budget, a substantial increase that puts it in line with a standard set by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.他还肯定了日本增加年度军费开支的决定。上个月,岸田文雄政府发布了一项新的国家安全战略,宣布日本承诺将国内生产总值的2%用于年度国防预算,这样的大幅增长意味着日本将与北大西洋公约组织制定的标准保持一致。Mr. Austin also affirmed Japan’s decision to invest more in “counterstrike capabilities,” meaning missiles that can be used for offensive operations. Japan has said it intends to buy hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States.奥斯汀支持日本对“反击能力”(即可用于进攻行动的导弹)加大投入的决定。日本称,计划从美国购买大量“战斧”巡航导弹。Mr. Blinken said officials from the two nations will sign an agreement on a defense partnership in outer space later this week.布林肯表示,两国官员将于本周晚些时候签署一项外太空防御伙伴关系的协议。Under the new U.S. deployment arrangement in Japan, Marines who are serving in Okinawa as part of the 12th Marine Regiment, an artillery unit, will transform into a more mobile unit — the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment. The new configuration will allow them to more easily fan out to other islands along the coast when the need arises, U.S. officials said.根据美国新的对日部署,驻扎在冲绳、隶属炮兵第12海军陆战团的海军陆战队将转变为机动性更强的第12滨海作战团。美国官员表示,新配置将使这些部队在需要时更易于分散到沿岸其他岛屿。The littoral regiment will have battalion-size units, about 2,000 troops total, and have long-range fire capabilities that can hit ships. Mr. Austin said the change will lead to a presence that is “more lethal, more agile, more capable.”这个滨海作战团将按营级规模建制,总兵力约2000人,并配备打击船舰的远程火力。奥斯汀表示,这一变化将使美军的存在“更致命、更敏捷、能力更强”。The agreement will not increase the number of Marines serving in Okinawa, officials said. But it will allow Marines to more quickly deploy if tensions intensify in the region. Pentagon officials said the restructuring is in part to deal with China’s growing military activity and presence, including around the island of Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that the Chinese Communist Party intends to bring under its rule.官员们表示,该协议不会增加驻冲绳的海军陆战队数量,但可以让海军陆战队在该地区紧张局势加剧的情况下迅速部署。五角大楼官员表示,重组的部分原因是为了应对中国包括在台湾岛周围日益增长的军事活动和存在,台湾是一个中共意图置于其统治之下的自治民主岛屿。Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year has made American, Taiwanese and Japanese officials more anxious about the possibility of China trying a move on Taiwan — perhaps not in the coming months or years, but maybe by the end of the decade. Much depends on how Chinese officials perceive the balance of military strength in the region, which includes American forces, U.S. officials say.俄罗斯去年全面入侵乌克兰,让美国、台湾和日本官员更加担心中国对台采取行动的可能——这或许不是近忧,但可能会在这个十年结束前发生。美国官员称,这在很大程度上取决于中国官员如何看待该地区的军事力量平衡,其中也包括美军。In August, China alarmed Japan when it fired ballistic missiles in the waters around Taiwan to send a message of aggression to the island and to the United States after Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited in a show of support. Five of the missiles landed in the exclusive economic zone off Japan’s coast, the first such occurrence.去年8月,在众议院议长佩洛西访台以示支持后,为向台湾和美国示威,中国向台湾附近海域发射了弹道导弹,引起了日本的担忧。其中五枚导弹落在日本的专属经济区,这样的情况尚属首次。Japanese officials have also been disquieted by a series of joint military exercises conducted by China and Russia in the region. The two nations held one such exercise in May, the first one they had done together since Russia invaded Ukraine. Mr. Biden was visiting Tokyo at the time for a meeting of the Quad, a coalition of the United States, Japan, India and Australia that was formed in part to counter China’s growing power.日本官员也对中俄在该地区举行的一系列联合军事演习感到不安。中俄去年5月举行了一次这样的演习,是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来的首次。当时拜登正在东京参加“四方安全对话”会议,这是由美国、日本、印度和澳大利亚组成的联盟,部分原因是为了对抗中国日益增长的实力。China and Japan have not resolved territorial disputes over waters and islands in the East China Sea. The Japanese and American militaries have noted increased Chinese maritime activity in the area, U.S. officials said.中日两国在东海海域和岛屿还有领土争端尚未解决。美国官员表示,日美军方注意到中国在该地区的海事活动有所增加。Japan’s bolstering its military capabilities is likely to cause greater unease in South Korea to some degree, given the bitter memories there of Japan’s violent occupation of the Korean Peninsula, which still has a profound effect on relations between the two countries. But the United States has been pressing both nations, which share security interests and concerns, to maintain working ties. Besides China, the two countries and the United States are worried about the nuclear weapons program and military actions of North Korea.鉴于韩国对日本暴力侵占朝鲜半岛的痛苦记忆——这对两国关系仍然影响深远——日本加强军事力量的举措在一定程度上可能引起韩国的不安。但美国一直在向两国施压,敦促双方基于共同的安全利益和关切保持合作。除中国外,日韩和美国也都对朝鲜的核武器计划和军事行动感到担忧。The government run by Kim Jong-un, the ruler of North Korea, launched more than 90 ballistic and other missiles in 2022, more than in any other year. It has continued to conduct missile launches this year. American, Japanese and South Korean officials are bracing for a potential nuclear test by North Korea.金正恩政权在2022年发射了90多枚弹道导弹和其他导弹,比以往任何一年都要多。今年,朝鲜将继续进行导弹发射。美国、日本和韩国官员正在为朝鲜可能进行的核试验做准备。Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan’s foreign minister, said on Wednesday that the American and Japanese governments had reaffirmed all aspects of the U.S. defense commitment to Japan, including the U.S. nuclear umbrella that is intended to act as a deterrent.日本外相林芳正周三表示,美国和日本政府重申了美国在各个层面上对日本的防务承诺,包括旨在发挥威慑作用的美国核保护伞。Helene Cooper对本文有报道贡献。黄安伟(Edward Wong)是一名外交与国际新闻记者,在时报任职超过20年,其中13年驻伊拉克和中国进行报道。他因关于伊拉克战争的报道获得了利文斯顿奖(Livingston Award),也曾入选普利策奖候选名单。他是哈佛大学尼曼学者,并在普林斯顿大学担任费里斯新闻学教授。欢迎在Twitter上关注他: @ewong。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 美日将加强军事合作,抵御中朝俄等威胁

General News 经济新闻 / 图片中的上海疫情高峰时刻
« on: January 13, 2023, 06:00:38 AM »

QILAI SHEN, DAVID PIERSON2023年1月11日周五,病人和家属在上海一家医院的大厅内。 Shanghai is being gripped by China’s massive Covid wave, leading to a surge in hospitalizations and crowded funeral homes.上海正被中国大规模的新冠感染浪潮所笼罩,导致住院人数激增,殡仪馆人满为患。Local health officials said last week that up to 70 percent of the city’s 26 million residents had been infected, and they expressed confidence that its outbreak had peaked.当地卫生官员上周表示,该市2600万居民中高达70%的人已经被感染,他们表示相信疫情已经达到顶峰。But many of the city’s hospitals are still overcrowded, particularly with older people. Funeral homes have been inundated with mourners.但是这个城市的许多医院仍然人满为患,尤其是老年人。殡仪馆里挤满了哀悼者。Infections soared across China late last year, and the government abruptly lifted its strict, but ultimately futile, Covid restrictions in early December. Shanghai endured one of China’s most grueling lockdowns last spring, with residents confined to their homes for more than two months.去年末,中国各地的感染人数飙升,政府在12月初突然取消了其严苛、但最终徒劳无效的防疫政策。上海去年春天经历了中国最令人痛苦的封锁,居民被限制在家中超过两个月。China’s current wave of infections has been fueled by a lack of immunity in the population, most of which was not exposed to the coronavirus for years because of the country’s strict controls. In addition, many older adults never received a full course of vaccines or booster shots.人群免疫力缺乏助长了中国目前的这波感染,由于国家的严格控制,大多数人几年来没有接触过新冠病毒。此外,许多老年人从未接受过完整的疫苗注射或打加强针。The following photographs capture the grief and anxiety that swept across Shanghai over the weekend, beginning with this image of patients being taken to the emergency room of a Shanghai hospital.从这张病人被送入上海一家医院急诊室的照片开始,以下这些照片捕捉了在周末席卷上海的悲痛和焦虑。 Hospital personnel say they are overworked because many colleagues are absent, having tested positive for Covid.医院工作人员称他们过度工作,因为许多同事都因感染新冠而不在岗。 With hospitals overwhelmed, patients are being treated in every available space.医院不堪重负,病人在每一个可用的空间接受治疗。 Many older Chinese adults did not take a full vaccine course or get booster shots, fearing that they were too frail to be inoculated.许多中国老年人没有接受完整疫苗注射或打加强针,他们担心自己身体过于虚弱,不能接种。 People in a hospital courtyard, with the body of a recently deceased family member.人们在一家医院的院里,旁边是一位刚刚去世的家人的遗体。 Consoling a grieving woman outside a Shanghai funeral home.在上海一家殡仪馆外安慰一名悲痛的妇女。 Mourners coming out of a funeral home, one carrying the ashes of the deceased.送葬的人离开一家殡仪馆,其中一人抱着逝者的骨灰。 Another crowded hallway in a Shanghai hospital.一家上海医院里拥挤的过道。 A view of a hospital lobby.一家医院的大厅。 Getting treatment in a hallway.在走廊里接受治疗。 Patients in a crowded Shanghai hospital.病人们在上海一家拥挤的医院里。 Another group of mourners, walking past a funeral home.一群送葬者走过一家殡仪馆。 A body on a gurney in a Shanghai hospital.一具遗体躺在上海一家医院的轮床上。 Li You对本文有研究贡献。David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。欢迎在Twitter上关注他:@dhpierson。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 图片中的上海疫情高峰时刻


EMILY SCHMALL, KARAN DEEP SINGH, ATUL LOKE2023年1月5日印度海得拉巴,希瓦姆·蒂鲁帕蒂·尼拉瓦尔(中)骑车前往送货目的地。 The clock was ticking.时间不等人。Weaving at high speeds through the traffic of Hyderabad, a city in southern India, SRisk aversionam Tirupati Niralwar, 29, ran through red lights and drove into oncoming traffic. He would do whatever it took to fulfill his mission: Deliver an order of fried okra to a 25-year-old office worker in no more than 11 minutes.29岁的希瓦姆·蒂鲁帕蒂·尼拉瓦尔在印度南部城市海得拉巴街上的车流中快速穿行,闯过红灯,向着迎面而来的车辆驶去。他要不惜一切代价完成自己的任务:在11分钟内将一份炸秋葵送到一名25岁的上班族手中。Mr. Niralwar is part of an army of drivers working for Indian delivery apps that are competing fiercely — some say dangerously — to see just how fast a restaurant meal, an evening’s cooking supplies or an iPhone can be conveyed to a waiting customer.尼拉瓦尔是为印度送货应用打工的骑手大军的一员,这些应用的竞争十分激烈(有些人称之为危险),看餐馆的一顿饭菜、晚餐食材或一台iPhone能以多快的速度送到等待的顾客手中。Quick commerce has become the norm in many countries. But some Indian companies are pushing the bounds of logistics and endurance. The service Mr. Niralwar works for, Swiggy Instamart, promises grocery deliveries “in minutes.” A competitor, Zepto, puts a number on its alacrity: 10 minutes or less. Others offer same-day delivery of heavy appliances, or package pickup in an hour or two.快商务已成为许多国家的常态。但一些印度企业正在挑战物流和耐力的极限。尼拉瓦尔所在的Swiggy Instamart公司承诺“几分钟内”就能送货上门。竞争对手Zepto则对速度做出了规定:不超过10分钟。还有公司可以将沉重的电器当日送达,或一两小时内前来取件。Companies like these, which have proliferated during the pandemic, are offering deliveries at ever lower prices and with ever-shorter wait times in hopes of achieving scale in a crowded market. They are under intense pressure to find the right formula as domestic and foreign investors pour in billions of dollars, hoping to pick winners that will one day turn a profit.疫情期间,这样的企业大量涌现,以更低的价格和更短的等待时间提供配送服务,希望在竞争激烈的市场实现规模化运作。随着无数国内外投资的涌入,希望挑选出有朝一日能够盈利的赢家,这些企业面临寻找正确经营之道的巨大压力。As these new ventures test whether the market demands 10-minute deliveries of loaves of bread or packets of masala, the burden falls disproportionately on the drivers — a seemingly endless supply of Newbie trader people, mostly men, willing to work long hours under hair-thin deadlines for a few dollars a day.在这些新创企业检验市场是否要求10分钟内送达一条条面包或一包包马萨拉的时候,负担就不成比例地落到了骑手身上,这是一群似乎用之不竭的年轻人,其中大部分是男性,愿意为了一天几美元的工资在极短的限期中长时间劳作。尼拉瓦尔在海得拉巴领取一份食品订单。在为送货应用打工的骑手大军中,年轻男性占了大多数。Dunzo应用的送货骑手文卡特·拉奥正在为他要送的下一单货打包。“Somebody has to pay for that,” said Saibal Kar, a professor of economics at the Center for Studies in Social Sciences in Kolkata. “Unfortunately, it’s the workers.”“总有人要为此付出代价,”加尔各答社会科学研究中心的经济学教授赛巴尔·卡尔说。“很遗憾,现在是工人在付。”India’s economy is growing at the fastest pace of any major country, fueled by corporate earnings and middle-class consumption of the sorts of goods these companies are rushing to deliver.印度是经济增长最快的大国,这主要得益于企业盈利和中产阶级对这些企业争相运送的商品的消费。But there has been no commensurate growth in steady jobs in India’s deeply unequal society. That has left the legions of working poor who toil as delivery drivers to serve a middle class that they have fewer and fewer hopes of ever entering.但在印度这个极度不平等的社会中,稳定的工作岗位却没有相应的增长。这使得大批做送货骑手这种苦活的穷忙族为中产阶级服务,而他们自己成为中产的希望却越来越渺茫。Millions have been pushed into gig work as Prime Minister Narendra Modi has moved to privatize public entities and cut red tape, enacting a series of changes to labor regulations that have diluted protections for workers.随着莫迪总理将公共实体私有化,减少繁文缛节,对劳动法规进行了导致劳工保护被削弱的一系列改革,无数人被迫打起了零工。The number of gig workers is projected to reach 23.5 million in 2030, nearly triple the number in 2020, according to a June report by Niti Aayog, a government research agency.根据政府研究机构Niti Aayog在6月发布的一份报告,到2030年,印度的零工工人数量预计将达到2350万,几乎是2020年的三倍。With India’s public sector shrinking, the informal sector now accounts for more than nine out of 10 jobs, International Labor Organization data show. Such jobs, without guaranteed health insurance, social security or pensions, range from the treacherous — construction work without hard hats or other protective gear, or assembly-line labor in illegal firetrap factories — to the merely miserable.国际劳工组织的数据显示,随着印度公共部门萎缩,如今10个工作岗位中灰色经济占到了九个以上。这类工作没有医保、社保或养老金的保障,有的是危险工种——没有安全帽或其他防护装备的建筑工作,或是无消防设施的非法厂房里的流水线工人——有的则完全就是惨不忍睹。Work as a delivery driver can seem a better alternative. Delivery app companies dangle offers of 45,000 rupees per month, or more than $540, in targeted ads on social media, about double the country’s median income.做送货骑手似乎是更好的选择。送货应用公司在社交媒体上定向投放广告,开出月薪4.5万卢比(约合人民币3700元)的条件,这大约是印度收入中位数的一倍。But drivers say they rarely earn anything close. What they do get is constant hounding by customers and automated calls from the companies to go faster. The algorithms that assign orders, they say, reward drivers with high ratings, which are based on the speed and number of past deliveries. Drivers say delays — regardless of the reason — can mean a reduction in assignments or even a suspension, pressure that sometimes pushes drivers to put themselves in danger.但骑手们表示,他们实际挣到的钱远远少于这个数字。他们要面对的是客户不断的催促,以及公司自动打来的要求他们加速的电话。他们说,分配订单的算法按照高评分给骑手奖励,而评分又是根据骑手的送货速度和数量来计算。骑手们说,不管什么原因,只要延误都可能意味着任务减少甚至暂停,这样的压力有时就迫使骑手不顾自身安全。Mr. Niralwar joins other delivery app drivers every evening as they mill about in a dusty, unpaved parking area in Hyderabad. They chat between orders, lifting pant legs to compare motorcycle injuries.每天晚上,尼拉瓦尔都和其他送货应用的骑手一起,在海得拉巴一个尘土飞扬、没铺过路的停车区来回穿梭。他们会在送单的间隙闲聊,提起裤腿比较各自骑摩托车时受的伤。Ankit Bhatt, 33, moved to Hyderabad four years ago so that his wife could take a job at a call center. Without a college degree, he had more limited employment options: low-paying retail or informal manual labor.为了让妻子在一家呼叫中心找到工作,33岁的安吉·巴特四年前搬到了海得拉巴。他没有大学学位,就业选择更加有限:只能从事低薪零售业或非正规的体力劳动。Ready to begin his evening shift for Swiggy Instamart, Mr. Bhatt tried to log in but found that his ID had been temporarily blocked — punishment, he said, for failing to deliver an order after his motorcycle clutch had given out.在准备开始在Swiggy Instamart的夜班之前,巴特登录时发现自己的账号被暂时屏蔽,他说这是惩罚,因为他在摩托车离合器失灵之后有一单没能送达。“You could be sick, you could have an accident, your bike could have mechanical issues. You will be penalized for that,” Mr. Bhatt said.“你可能生病,可能出了事故,车子可能遇到机械故障。你都会因此受到惩罚,”巴特说。送货骑手安吉·巴特正在查看他送货的应用中自己的账户状态。谢克·萨洛丁(右)已经说服数以万计像他这样的送货应用司机加入工会。A Swiggy spokeswoman said delivery workers “are never disincentivized for a delay or failure in delivery due to unavoidable circumstances.” The company deactivates accounts, she said, only when workers are found to be in violation of the company’s “code of conduct.”Swiggy的发言人表示,送货员“从来不会因为不可抗力导致的送货延误或失败而被惩罚”。她表示,只有当员工被发现违反公司的“行为准则”,其账户才会被停用。Zepto, the Swiggy competitor, said its model is more about the short distances drivers travel and not their speed. It said it calls them to provide navigation help when they fall behind on orders.Swiggy的竞争对手Zepto表示,该公司的模式更多关注的是骑手的短距离行驶,而不是他们的速度。该公司表示,如果骑手未能按时完成订单,会打电话为他们提供导航帮助。Like many others, Mr. Bhatt delivers for several companies. He recently tried out Zepto but found the pressure overbearing.和其他许多人一样,巴特为好几家公司送货。他最近尝试了Zepto,但发现压力太大了。“I started getting calls from the company saying, ‘Where are you? Come to the store! Your ID will be blocked otherwise.’ I told them I can’t do this,” he said.“我开始接到公司的电话,问我,‘你在哪儿?过来店里!否则你的账号将被禁用。’我告诉他们我做不了,”他说。Shaik Salauddin, a driver for the ride-sharing app Ola, persuaded Mr. Bhatt and about 26,000 more like him to join a new union in the state of Telangana, where Hyderabad is the capital. The union is pushing for better safety standards, insurance and other driver benefits.谢克·萨洛丁是拼车应用Ola的一名司机,他说服巴特和其他大约2.6万名像他一样的人加入了位于特伦甘纳邦首府海得拉巴的一个新工会。工会正在推动更好的安全标准、保险和其他司机福利。Mr. Salauddin is firmly opposed to the ultrafast delivery model, which he says is neither safe nor necessary. “There are accidents, and people die,” he said. (There are no official figures on injuries and deaths among drivers.)萨洛丁坚决反对超快速配送模式,他认为这种模式既不安全也没有必要。“发生事故,有人死亡,”他说。(没有关于司机伤亡的官方数据。)To fulfill orders that quickly, Swiggy and Zepto have strategically placed distribution warehouses in cities across India, concentrating them in areas with the highest demand.为了快速完成订单,Swiggy和Zepto在印度各城市精心选址设立了配送仓库,将它们集中在需求最高的地区。Inside a Zepto “dark” store — a fulfillment center closed to customers — in south Delhi one recent day, a clock on a big screen flashed a 60-second countdown. Alisha, a store packer who goes by one name, zoomed past aisles of cereal and tea to grab bags of cauliflower, garlic and spinach, placing the items in a paper sack and putting it on a color-coded shelf. A booming timer alarm went off every few minutes.最近一天,在德里南部的一家Zepto“黑暗”商店——一个不对顾客开放的配货中心,大屏幕上的时钟闪烁着60秒的倒计时。阿利莎是一名商店包装员,她快速穿过麦片和茶叶货架,抓起一袋袋花椰菜、大蒜和菠菜,将这些物品放在一个纸袋中,然后放在一个用颜色编码的架子上。每隔几分钟,定时器就会大声响起。Ms. Alisha, 23, who is pursuing a bachelor’s degree in art, said the job, which requires her to be on her feet from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m., earns her barely enough to pay rent and help support her aging parents.23岁的阿利莎正在攻读艺术学士学位,她说这份工作要求她从早上7点起就忙活起来。到下午4点,她的收入仅够支付房租和帮助供养年迈的父母。She said she often felt overwhelmed. “Customers get angry and complain if they don’t get their orders on time,” she said. “They don’t think about us.”她说她经常感到不堪重负。“如果客户没有按时收到订单,他们会生气并抱怨,”她说。“他们不考虑我们。”那拉瓦尔在海得拉巴的办公地点为客户送餐。那拉瓦尔在他住的青年旅舍里学习,他正在攻读硕士学位。Zepto, which was founded by two Stanford University dropouts struggling to feed themselves during the pandemic lockdown in Mumbai, calls drivers the “lifeblood of our ecosystem.” The company offers benefits that others don’t, like a place for drivers to sit down and a bathroom at its delivery hubs.Zepto是由两名斯坦福大学辍学生创立的,他们在孟买的大流行封锁期间难以买到食物。他们称司机是“我们生态系统的命脉”。该公司提供其他公司没有的福利,比如让司机可以坐下的地方,以及在配货中心设置洗手间。For many drivers, “this is the only way they can get quick access to capital that is reliable, without much risk to being exploited in the depths of urban India,” said Aadit Palicha, one of Zepto’s co-founders.Zepto的联合创始人之一阿迪特·帕里查表示,对于许多司机来说,“这是他们能够快速获得可靠资本的唯一途径,而且不会面临在深不可测的印度城市被剥削的风险。”Still, Zepto’s average pay is low — about 20,000 rupees, or $240, a month. And there is little time for a driver to sit during a 14-hour shift.不过,Zepto的平均工资很低——每月大约2万卢比,约合人民币1600元。在14小时轮班期间,司机几乎没有时间坐下。Mr. Palicha said Zepto’s business was built not on India’s surfeit of workers willing to toil long hours for low pay, but on frequent, fast deliveries.帕里查说,印度有大量愿意长时间工作以获取低薪的工人,但Zepto的业务并非建立在这之上,而是建立在频繁、快速的交货之上。“It’s a tempting narrative that this model only works where there is structural inequality,” he said. “But is that the whole story? No, because economic mobility is also happening.”“人们总会轻易相信这种模式只适用于存在结构性不平等的地方,”他说。“但这就是故事的全部吗?不,因为同时还带来了经济流动性。”Still, drivers’ meager earnings are evident in Hyderabad, where Mr. Niralwar pulled a Swiggy hoodie over his frame in Room No. 307 at a men’s hostel that he shares with two other men.尽管如此,在海得拉巴,司机明显赚着微薄的收入。在一家男子青年旅舍的307号房间,尼拉瓦尔和另外两个男人合住,他套了一件Swiggy连帽衫。Mr. Niralwar’s scant savings go to his two sisters, both of whom are planning to marry this year. When he has time, he hops a train home to the western Indian state of Maharashtra, where he recently started a graduate degree in social work.尼拉瓦尔微薄的积蓄都花在了他的两个姐妹身上,她们都计划在今年结婚。有空的时候,他会搭火车回到印度西部的马哈拉施特拉邦的家中,最近他在那里开始攻读社会工作研究生学位。As he logged in to the Swiggy app, ready to start a new shift, he reflected on how the demands of delivery work left no time for love.当他登录Swiggy应用程序,准备开始新的轮班时,他反思了送货工作的需求如何让他没有时间去寻找爱。The job, he said, is all “about time.”他说,这份工作只有“争分夺秒”。Emily Schmall是时报驻印度新德里的南亚记者,欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@emilyschmall。Karan Deep Singh是时报驻印度新德里的记者和视觉记者。他此前曾在《华尔街日报》工作,供职期间他所在的团队曾入围2020年普利策奖调查性报道奖,也曾获艾美奖提名。欢迎在Twitter上关注他:@Karan_Singhs。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 几分钟内送达的代价:在极限中奔忙的印度外卖骑手大军


PETER S. GOODMAN2023年1月4日 Bryan Denton for The New York TimesAs American companies recalibrate the risks of relying on Chinese factories to make their goods, some are shifting business to a country far closer to home: Mexico.随着美国企业重新评估依赖中国工厂制造产品的风险,一些企业正在将业务转移到一个离本土更近的国家:墨西哥。The unfolding trend known as “near-shoring” has drawn the attention of no less than Walmart, the global retail empire with headquarters in Arkansas.这种被称为“近岸”的趋势,已经引起了总部位于阿肯色州的全球零售帝国沃尔玛的关注。Early last year, when Walmart needed $1 million of company uniforms — more than 50,000 in one order — it bought them not from its usual suppliers in China but from Preslow, a family-run apparel business in Mexico.去年年初,沃尔玛需要采购价值100万美元的公司制服——单笔订单超过5万件——但没有从中国的常规供应商那里购买,而是选择了墨西哥的家族服装企业普思洛(Preslow)。蒂萨尤卡工业园的入口,该工业园位于墨西哥城东北部约一小时车程的制造业小城蒂萨尤卡。波顿洛伦和普思洛这两家企业都在这里。It was February 2022, and the contours of global trade seemed up for alteration. The worst pandemic in a century had upended shipping. The cost of transporting products across the Pacific had skyrocketed, and ports were choked with floating traffic jams — a stark indication of the dangers of depending on a single faraway country for critical goods.那是在2022年2月,全球贸易格局似乎将要改变。百年不遇的疫情颠覆了航运业。跨太平洋产品运输成本飙升,港口被停泊的货轮堵塞——这都清楚表明,仅靠一个遥远国家提供重要货物可能带来怎样的风险。Among multinational companies, decades of faith in the economic merits of making things in China had come under withering challenge, especially as animosity intensified between Washington and Beijing.对于跨国企业而言,尤其是在华盛顿与北京的敌意加剧之际,数十年来在中国制造产品的经济效益所带来的信念受到了严峻考验。At his office in Mexico City, Isaac Presburger, director of sales at Preslow, took Walmart’s order as a sign of his country’s evolving role in the economy, and the opportunities that flow from sharing the same side of the Pacific with the United States.普思洛销售总监艾萨克·普雷斯伯格在他位于墨西哥城的办公室中表示,沃尔玛的订单可以说是墨西哥在经济中角色不断变化的标志,也象征着与美国同属太平洋一岸所带来的机遇。“Walmart had a big problem with their supply,” Mr. Presburger recounted. “They said, ‘OK, Mexico, save me.’”“沃尔玛的供应存在很大问题,”普雷斯伯格说。“他们说,‘好吧,墨西哥,帮帮我。’”Basic geography is a driver for American companies moving business to Mexico. Shipping a container full of goods to the United States from China generally requires a month — a time frame that doubled and tripled during the worst disruptions of the pandemic. Yet factories in Mexico and retailers in the United States can be bridged within two weeks.美国企业将业务转移到墨西哥是出于基本的地理因素。将一个装满货物的集装箱从中国运至美国通常需要一个月时间——在疫情干扰最严重期间,耗时增加了一两倍。但墨西哥工厂和美国零售商能在两周内实现往来。“Everybody who sources from China understands that there’s no way to get around that Pacific Ocean — there’s no technology for that,” said Raine Mahdi, founder of Zipfox, a San Diego-based company that links factories in Mexico with American companies seeking alternatives to Asia. “There’s always this push from customers: ‘Can you get it here faster?’”“所有从中国采购的企业都明白,没有办法绕过太平洋——没有技术能实现这一点,”Zipfox创始人雷恩·马赫迪表示,这家位于圣地亚哥的公司负责将墨西哥的工厂介绍给寻求亚洲替代选择的美国企业。“客户总会这样催促:‘能把货快点送过来吗?’”During the first 10 months of last year, Mexico exported $382 billion of goods to the United States, an increase of more than 20 percent over the same period in 2021, according to U.S. census data. Since 2019, American imports of Mexican goods have swelled by more than one-fourth.根据美国统计的数据,在去年头10个月,墨西哥向美国出口了价值3820亿美元的商品,比2021年同期增长了20%以上。自2019年以来,美国从墨西哥进口商品增长超过25%。In 2021, American investors put more money into Mexico — buying companies and financing projects — than into China, according to an analysis by the McKinsey Global Institute.根据麦肯锡全球研究院的一项分析,2021年,美国投资者在墨西哥——收购企业和融资项目——投入的资金超过了对中国的投入。China will almost certainly remain a central component of manufacturing for years to come, say trade experts. But the shift toward Mexico represents a marginal reapportionment of the world’s manufacturing capacity amid recognition of volatile hazards — from geopolitical realignments to the intensifying challenges of climate change.贸易专家表示,未来几年,中国几乎肯定仍将是制造业的核心一环。但由于对地缘政治调整和气候变化挑战加剧等不稳定风险的认识,向墨西哥的转移代表了全球制造业产能的边际重新分配。上个月,拉扎制服公司的商务总监拉蒙·贝塞拉(左)接待了维罗妮卡与何塞·贾斯蒂尼亚诺,他们参观了拉扎制服在瓜达拉哈拉的生产。随着美国企业重新评估依赖中国工厂的风险,一些企业正在将订单转移到墨西哥的工厂,这属于正在形成的一种被称为“近岸”的趋势,即将生产转移到离本土更近的地方。根据美国统计的数据,在去年头10个月,墨西哥向美国出口了价值3820亿美元的商品,比2021年同期增长了20%以上。“It’s not about deglobalization,” said Michael Burns, managing partner at Murray Hill Group, an investment firm focused on the supply chain. “It’s the next stage of globalization that is focused on regional networks.”“这不是去全球化,”专注于供应链的投资公司默里希尔集团(Murray Hill Group)的执行合伙人迈克尔·伯恩斯表示。“这是以区域网络为中心的全球化下一阶段。”That Mexico looms as a potential means of cushioning Americans from the pitfalls of globalization amounts to a development rich in historical irony.墨西哥被当作美国人免受全球化陷阱影响的一种潜在手段,可以说是一个充满历史讽刺意味的变化。Three decades ago, Ross Perot, the business magnate then running for president, warned of “a giant sucking sound going south” in depicting Mexico as a job-capturing threat to American livelihoods.30年前,正在竞选总统的商业巨头罗斯·佩罗将墨西哥描绘为抢走美国人饭碗的威胁,警告称“南边正发出巨大的吸食声”。“The reality is that Mexico is the solution to some of our challenges,” said Shannon K. O’Neil, a Latin America specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. “Trade that is closer by from Canada or Mexico is much more likely to create and protect U.S. jobs.”“现实情况是,墨西哥可以解决我们面临的一些挑战,”位于纽约的外交关系协会的拉丁美洲问题专家香农·K·奥尼尔表示。“与加拿大或墨西哥距离更近的贸易更有可能创造和保护美国的就业机会。”Given that the United States, Mexico and Canada operate within an expansive trade zone, their supply chains are often intertwined. Each contributes parts and raw materials used in finished goods by the others. Cars assembled in Mexico, for example, draw heavily on parts produced at factories in the United States.鉴于美国、墨西哥和加拿大都在同一片广阔的贸易区内经营业务,其供应链往往是交织在一起的。三国都为彼此的成品提供零部件和原材料。例如,在墨西哥组装的汽车就大量使用了美国工厂生产的零部件。Overall, some 40 percent of the value of Mexico’s exports to the United States consists of parts and components made at American plants, according to a seminal research paper. Yet only 4 percent of imports from China are American-made.根据一篇开创性的研究论文,墨西哥对美国出口总价值的约40%包含了美国工厂生产的部件和配件。而从中国进口的产品中,只有4%是美国制造的。去年年初,沃尔玛没有从中国的常规供应商那里采购价值100万美元的公司制服,而是选择了墨西哥的家族服装企业普思洛。A Walmart spokesperson described the company’s interest in Mexico as part of a broader effort to make its supply chain less vulnerable to troubles in any one region.沃尔玛发言人表示,公司对墨西哥的兴趣是其更广泛努力的一部分,旨在使供应链没那么容易受到任何一个地区问题的影响。For now, Mexico lacks the capacity to assume China’s place as the dominant supplier of a vast range of goods.目前,墨西哥还没有能力取代中国成为各类商品的主要供应国。At Preslow’s factory some 50 miles north of Mexico City, 200 seamstresses leaned over clattering sewing machines on a recent morning, stitching garments amid the strains of Mexican folk music. Local designers sat in front of computer screens, conjuring new creations.最近的一个早晨,在墨西哥城以北约80公里的普思洛工厂,200名女裁缝俯在咔嗒作响的缝纫机前,伴随着墨西哥民乐的旋律缝制衣服。当地的设计师坐在电脑屏幕前思索新的创意。Yet the storage shelves were piled high with bolts of synthetic fabric, nearly all of it made in China.然而,仓库货架上的大堆合成纤维织物,几乎全都产自中国。“All the basic materials are still imported from China, because you don’t have the suppliers here,” Mr. Presburger said. “The fabrics I use are impossible to get in Mexico.”“所有基础材料仍然要从中国进口,因为这里没有供应商,”普雷斯伯格说。“我用的布料在墨西哥根本买不到。”贾斯蒂尼亚诺夫妇过去常常从一家进口亚洲制服的企业采购。但随着疫情在2020年加剧,以往几天就能交付的订单交付时间变成了几个月。贾斯蒂尼亚诺夫妇急忙寻找另一个供应商,他们也渴望在西半球给自己的小本生意找到供应商。“唯一的出路是墨西哥,”贾斯蒂尼亚诺说。Closer to Home离本土更近On the other side of the Mexican border, in a bedroom community north of Dallas, Jose and Veronica Justiniano were also dependent on vital goods from Asia and eager to find a vendor in the same hemisphere.在墨西哥边境的另一边,在达拉斯以北的睡房社区,何塞和维罗妮卡·贾斯蒂尼亚诺也依赖亚洲的重要商品,他们也渴望在西半球找到供应商。The couple ran a small business, Veronica’s Embroidery, out of their home. They supplied restaurants, construction companies and maid services with uniforms for their employees.这对夫妇在家中经营着一家名为“维罗妮卡刺绣”(Veronica’s Embroidery)的小企业。他们为餐馆、建筑公司和家居服务公司提供员工制服。Born and raised in El Salvador, they had left behind a horrific civil war to forge comfortable lives in the United States.他们在萨尔瓦多出生长大,逃离了可怕的内战,在美国过上了舒适的生活。Mr. Justiniano, 50, landed first in Los Angeles, where he worked as a janitor at the Beverly Hills jail, and then as a billboard installer. After moving to Dallas, he got an entry-level job at an auto parts plant, and eventually rose to supervisor, gaining expertise in machinery. Ms. Justiniano, 54, worked as a home aide to an aging couple.现年50岁的贾斯蒂尼亚诺先来到洛杉矶,在比弗利山监狱做看守,后来又成了广告牌安装工。搬到达拉斯后,他在一家汽车零部件厂得到了一份初级工作,最终升为主管,掌握了机械方面的专业知识。54岁的贾斯蒂尼亚诺夫人是一对年迈夫妇的家庭助理。In 2018, the couple bought their first embroidery machine, installing it in an upstairs bedroom. The next year, they secured their most important customer — Gloria’s Latin Cuisine, a chain of 22 fine-dining restaurants in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin.2018年,这对夫妇买了他们的第一台绣花机,置于楼上的一间卧室里。第二年,他们获得了最重要的客户——“格洛丽亚的拉丁美食”,这是一家在达拉斯、休斯顿、圣安东尼奥和奥斯汀拥有22家高级餐厅的连锁品牌。The Justinianos bought uniforms from a company that imported them from Asia. Then they used their machines to embroider the logos.贾斯蒂尼亚诺夫妇向一家从亚洲进口制服的公司购买了制服。然后用他们的机器绣上标志。贾斯蒂尼亚诺夫妇与拉扎制服的合作从小规模开始,只有几十件厨师服的订单。不久之后,他们就在单笔订单中采购了1000件亚麻衬衫。拉扎制服在瓜达拉哈拉的生产分布在安静的居住区各处。贾斯蒂尼亚诺夫妇最终将很大一部分业务都委托给了拉扎制服。Their distributor maintained huge stocks of inventory at warehouses in Texas, typically delivering within a day. But as the pandemic intensified in 2020, days turned into months. The Justinianos were late in their own deliveries, a mortifying threat to their business.他们的分销商在得克萨斯州的仓库中备有大量存货,通常在一天内交货。但随着大流行在2020年加剧,几天的交货期变成了几个月。贾斯蒂尼亚诺夫妇的交货时间也迟了,这对他们的生意是个极大的威胁。Mr. Justiniano hurriedly sought another supplier.贾斯蒂尼亚诺急忙寻找其他供应商。“The only way was Mexico,” he said.“唯一的出路是墨西哥,”他说。They eventually entrusted much of their business to Lazzar Uniforms, a family-run company in Guadalajara, a booming city about 350 miles northwest of Mexico’s capital. Lazzar’s commercial director, Ramon Becerra, 39, was eager to gain a crack at the enormous market to the north.他们最终将大部分业务委托给拉扎制服公司,这是一个家族企业,位于墨西哥首都西北约560公里的繁荣城市瓜达拉哈拉。拉扎公司的商业总监、39岁的拉蒙·贝塞拉非常想进入北方的巨大市场。“We know the U.S. is the future for us,” Mr. Becerrra said.“我们知道美国是我们的未来,”贝塞拉说。The Justinianos’ American distributor operated in bulk, selling only what it had in stock and providing no custom work. Lazzar, on the other hand, beckoned as a design shop and apparel factory in one.贾斯蒂尼亚诺夫妇的美国经销商经营批发,只销售库存商品,不提供定制服务。而拉扎集设计店和服装厂于一身。Mr. Becerra’s team conferred on the particulars of what the Justinianos desired: a light fabric that vented away moisture, providing relief from the heat of the kitchen. The two companies were able to communicate easily by phone and video without having to navigate a time difference.贝塞拉的团队讨论了贾斯蒂尼亚诺夫妇想要的细节:一种透气的轻便面料以缓解厨房的高温。两家公司通过电话和视频轻松沟通,而无需顾及时差。They started small, with a few dozen chef’s jackets. By September 2021, Veronica’s Embroidery was purchasing 1,000 linen shirts in a single order, at prices close to what its previous distributor charged for imports from Asia.他们从只有几十件厨师服的少量订单做起。到2021年9月,“维罗妮卡刺绣”已经在为一个订单采购1000件亚麻衬衫,价格接近其前分销商从亚洲进口的价格。On a recent morning, Mr. Becerra hosted Mr. Justiniano at his factory in Guadalajara. The two men discussed a potential new partnership in which Lazzar would set up a warehouse in Texas, with Mr. Justiniano handling American distribution.最近的一个早晨,贝塞拉在他位于瓜达拉哈拉的工厂接待了贾斯蒂尼亚诺。两人讨论了一项潜在的新合作伙伴关系,其中拉扎将在得克萨斯州建一个仓库,而贾斯蒂尼亚诺将负责美国的分销。“This year has been a wake up call for the U.S.,” Mr. Justiniano said. “We have to reconsider where we get our stuff made.”“这一年给美国敲响了警钟,”贾斯蒂尼亚诺说。“我们必须重新考虑我们产品的生产地。”随着全球零售巨头沃尔玛寻求减少在中国的业务,经营了四代人的服装企业普思洛已经在越来越多地向沃尔玛销售夹克。将业务转移到墨西哥是出于基本的地理因素。将一个装满货物的集装箱从中国运至美国通常需要一个月时间——在疫情干扰最严重期间,耗时增加了一两倍。墨西哥工厂和美国零售商能在两周内实现往来。A Troubled Legacy麻烦的遗产The biggest impediment to Mexico’s reaching its potential as an alternative to China may be Mexico itself.墨西哥发挥其潜力以替代中国的最大障碍可能是墨西哥本身。Its president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has neglected the nation’s infrastructure, including its ports.其总统安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔忽视了国家的基础设施,包括港口。Even Mr. Presburger, an enthusiastic promoter of his country’s industrial virtues, concedes that Mexico will struggle to amass the scope of China’s manufacturing capacity.即使是墨西哥工业精神的热情推动者普雷斯伯格也承认,墨西哥将难以积累中国的制造业产能。He recalled his first trip to China to look for fabric more than a decade ago. The scope of production left him astonished, with monumental spinning mills alongside specialized dying operations.他回忆起十多年前他第一次来中国寻找面料的经历。那里有巨大的纺纱厂,配备专业化的染色业务,生产规模让他大吃一惊。“The sheer size of the factories there is crazy,” he said. “I don’t think there’s a way back from that. It’s not going to be easy.”“那里工厂的规模大到不可思议,”他说。“我觉得不太可能走回头路。这并不容易。”Inside his factory, he displayed a popular item, a black bomber jacket adorned with an elaborate and colorful pattern. The zipper was made in Mexico, and so was a skull-shaped ornament that pulled it. But the rest of the components — the fabric, the thread, the liner — were all made across the Pacific.在他的工厂里,他展示了一件很受欢迎的产品,一款黑色飞行员夹克,上面装饰着精美的彩色图案。拉链是在墨西哥制造的,拉链上的骷髅头坠饰也是在墨西哥制造的。但其余的部件——面料、纱线、衬里——都来自太平洋彼岸。Still, a shift is palpable.尽管如此,转变还是显而易见的。Near Preslow’s plant, an enormous factory makes as many as six million buttons per day, employing some 1,500 people. The company, Botones Loren, has seen its sales grow by nearly two-thirds over the past year. Its customers — international brands like Armani and Men’s Warehouse — are shifting orders from China, said the company’s chief executive, Sony Chalouah.在普斯洛的工厂附近,有一家巨大的工厂每天生产多达600万颗纽扣,雇佣了大约1500名员工。这家名为罗兰纽扣的公司的销售额在过去一年中增长了近三分之二。该公司首席执行官索尼·查鲁亚表示,其客户——阿玛尼和Men’s Wearhouse等国际品牌——正在将订单从中国转移出来。“They think that the U.S. will continue to be fighting with China,” he said. “They want to not depend on China.”“他们认为美国将继续与中国对抗,”他说。“他们不想依赖中国。”在普斯洛的工厂附近,有一家巨大的工厂每天生产多达600万颗纽扣,雇佣了大约1500名员工。这家名为罗兰纽扣的公司的销售额在过去一年中增长了近三分之二。罗兰纽扣公司首席执行官索尼·查鲁亚表示,其客户——阿玛尼和Men’s Wearhouse等国际品牌——正在将订单从中国转移出来。墨西哥企业正在依赖于美国和中国之间的持续纷争。The Geopolitical Realignment地缘政治重新定位Some within the apparel industry anticipate that Mexico’s appeal will fade as normalcy returns to the global supply chain.服装行业的一些人预计,随着全球供应链恢复常态,墨西哥的吸引力将会减弱。Shipping prices have sharply declined over the past year. China has begun loosening Covid restrictions. Chinese apparel makers are aggressively courting business by offering steep discounts, according to Bernardo Samper, a longtime New York sourcing agent.过去一年,航运价格急剧下降。中国已开始放宽对新冠的限制。长期在纽约从事采购的代理人贝尔纳多·桑珀表示,中国服装制造商正在通过提供大幅折扣来积极招揽生意。“At the end of the day, everything is driven by pricing,” he said.“归根结底,一切都是由定价驱动的,”他说。Yet within Mexico, businesses are counting on continuing acrimony between the United States and China.然而在墨西哥,企业正在依赖于美国和中国之间的持续纷争。The Trump administration imposed steep tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese imports. President Biden has continued that policy, while adding measures that seek to deny China access to technology.特朗普政府对数千亿美元的中国进口商品征收高额关税。拜登总统延续了这一政策,同时增加了试图阻止中国获得技术的措施。Washington has accused the Chinese government of genocide in its brutal repression of the minority Uyghur community in the western Xinjiang region — a major source of cotton. Any company buying clothing made in China risks accusations of exploiting Uyghur forced labor.华盛顿指责中国政府对西部新疆地区的维吾尔族少数民族群体的残酷镇压是种族灭绝,而新疆是棉花的主要产地。任何购买中国制造服装的公司都面临剥削被强迫劳动的维吾尔人的指控。Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its deepening ties with China have amplified the sense that the world is dividing into distinct camps of allies and enemies.俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵以及与中国关系的加深加剧了世界正在分裂为敌友阵营的感觉。Companies need reliable supply chains.公司需要可靠的供应链。Lectra, a French company that makes machines that cut fabric into pieces for the apparel industry, has seen its sales in Mexico and Central America grow by nearly a third over the past year.力克(Lectra)是一家法国公司,为服装行业制造裁剪布料的机器,在过去一年中,其在墨西哥和中美洲的销售额增长了近三分之一。“What is driving this near-shoring is basically the situation between the U.S. and China,” said the company’s commercial director for the region, Carlos Sarmiento.该公司该地区的商务总监卡洛斯·萨米恩托表示:“这种近岸外包的趋势基本上是由美国和中国的局势推动的。”“It’s not that China is going to disappear from the American market,” he added. “It’s that there is more openness to look at Mexico and Central America as an alternative rather than depend entirely on China.”“并不是说中国将从美国市场上消失,”他还说。“人们现在更乐于考虑将墨西哥和中美洲视为替代方案,而不是完全依赖中国。”Peter S. Goodman是时报全球经济记者,常驻纽约。他曾是驻伦敦的欧洲经济记者,也曾在08年经济危机期间报道美国国家经济。他还曾任《华盛顿邮报》上海分社社长。欢迎在Twitter上关注他:@petersgoodman。翻译:Harry Wong、明斋点击查看本文英文版。

Source: “墨西哥,帮帮我”:中国之后,全球化将把我们带向哪里

General News 经济新闻 / 过去一年,新闻中的重要数字
« on: January 03, 2023, 12:00:07 PM »

ANDREW ROSS SORKIN, RAVI MATTU, BERNHARD WARNER, SARAH KESSLER, STEPHEN GANDEL, MICHAEL J. DE LA MERCED, LAUREN HIRSCH, EPHRAT LIVNI2022年12月30日Numbers that count重要的数字22Two major central banks — the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China — were the only ones not to raise interest rates this year, as inflation threatened economic growth and sapped consumer purchasing power. Central banks have collectively increased rates by more than 70 percent in 2022, according to LPL Financial, with the same goal: raise borrowing costs to cool rising prices that have been hitting shoppers from London to Poughkeepsie. Many were following the Fed, which increased its prime lending rate to a target range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent from roughly zero a year ago. The effect: stocks and bonds slumped on concerns that the increases would slow the economy.随着通胀威胁经济增长,侵蚀消费者购买力,全球重要央行中,今年没有升息的已经只剩下日本银行和中国人民银行两家。据LPL金融的数据,各国央行在2022年升息幅度总和超过70%,其目的都是为了增加借贷成本,缓解物价的上涨——这种上涨已经给从伦敦到波基普西的众多购物者造成打击。许多央行是在效仿美联储,后者将最优惠贷款利率从一年前的约等于零提升到了4.25%到4.5%的目标范围。后果是股市和债市因担心升息导致经济放缓而暴跌。44 billion440亿The value in dollars of Elon Musk’s deal to buy Twitter, backed by about $12.5 billion of debt that investment banks, led by Morgan Stanley, took on to help finance the acquisition. The banks made the promise before technology sector shares crashed, the billionaire tried to walk away from the acquisition, and the market for leveraged loans seized up. Unable to sell that debt without incurring huge losses, the banks head into the new year saddled with loans that will constrain their ability to finance more deals.伊隆·马斯克收购Twitter交易的美元价值,其中有125亿美元的借债来自以摩根士丹利为首的多家投资银行的融资。银行是在股市科技板块崩盘之前做出承诺的,这位亿万富翁试图退出收购,杠杆贷款市场停摆。银行要出售这笔债务肯定会有大幅亏损,于是只能背着这笔债进入新的一年,从而限制了它们为更多交易融资的能力。Mr. Musk’s management of Twitter has been erratic: He’s fired workers, refused to pay invoices, changed content moderation policies, allowed banned users back on to the platform, temporarily suspended some journalists’ accounts, been accused of neglecting his other companies and said he would resign as C.E.O. (eventually). But his style has won admiration among many tech executives, founders and investors.马斯克的Twitter管理层不走寻常路:他解雇员工,拒绝报销发票,改变内容管理政策,允许被封禁的用户回归平台,短暂关停了一些记者的帐号,还被指对他的其他公司不管不顾,他说他(最终)会辞去CEO一职。但是他的风格得到不少科技企业高管、创始人和投资者的赞扬。90 million9000万The number of vacant properties in China as of late summer. The world’s second-largest economy has been hammered this year and a sharp slowdown in the crucial property sector has been one big reason. Real estate development accounted for about a quarter of China’s G.D.P. over the past decade, but a squeeze on the industry caused seemingly impregnable companies to teeter and prompted rare social unrest among unhappy property owners. The lingering challenges facing the debt-fueled housing industry point to structural questions that still hang over the economy.夏末中国空置房产的数量。世界第二大经济体今年遭受重创,至关重要的房地产板块出现急剧下滑是一个重要原因。在过去十年里,房地产开发在中国GDP中的占比约为四分之一,但是对该产业的制约导致一些看上去坚不可摧的企业陷入困境,在不满的业主中间引发罕见的社会动荡。由债务驱动的房地产业久久无法摆脱困境,揭示了该国经济仍然存在着结构性问题。151,000151000The number of layoffs in the tech sector, according to Job cuts at companies including Amazon, Meta, Twitter and Stripe have dominated headlines in recent months, as Silicon Valley faces pressure to downsize. The shift is partly a post-pandemic correction. Companies hired aggressively (perhaps too aggressively) when demand for services boomed as consumers were stuck at home. But as the broader economy slowed in the latter half of the year, companies have been squeezed and tech stocks have plummeted.Layoffs.fyi给出的科技业裁员数量。随着硅谷面临缩减规模的压力,包括亚马逊、Meta、Twitter和Stripe在内的多家企业裁员,成为近几个月最受热议的新闻。这种转变在一定程度上是一种大流行之后的盘整。此前消费者居家不出导致服务需求猛增,于是这些公司大举招人(可能太过激进)。随着今年下半年经济整体放缓,企业面临困境,科技板块股票暴跌。4.9 million490万The number of jobs created in the past 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The labor market is confounding economists. Ordinarily, when economic growth falters, hiring slows down, too (example A: the tech sector). Job growth is ticking lower, but employers are continuing to hire, keeping the unemployment rate a relatively strong 3.7 percent. That’s good news for workers, but it may force the Fed to double down on aggressive rate increases in the first half of 2023.据劳工统计局,过去12个月创造的就业岗位数量。劳动市场让经济学家们大感困惑。通常在经济增长疲软的时候,招工也会放缓(以科技业为例)。就业增长在放缓,但雇主没有停止招人,失业率一直保持在3.7%,表现相对强劲。这对工人是好事,但可能会迫使联储在2023年上半年愈发坚持激进的升息策略。51 billion510亿The cost in euros of Germany’s bailout of Uniper, once Europe’s biggest importer of Russian gas. The utility company has been decimated this year as energy prices soared. The business was hit particularly hard after Gazprom, the Russian energy company that was its biggest supplier, cut gas flows in apparent retaliation for economic sanctions on Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine. Uniper posted a net loss of €40 billion, or about $42.5 billion — the biggest in German corporate history — for the first nine months of 2022. The government nationalized the company to avoid a Lehman Brothers-style effect on the energy sector.德国救助Uniper的欧元成本,该公司曾是欧洲最大的俄罗斯天然气进口商。由于能源价格飙升,这家公用事业公司今年遭受重创。该公司最大供应商俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司切断了天然气供应,明显是为了报复俄罗斯因入侵乌克兰而受到的经济制裁,令Uniper受到极大打击。2022年前9个月,Uniper公布的净亏损为400亿欧元,约425亿美元,是德国企业历史上最大的亏损。政府将该公司国有化,以避免在能源领域出现雷曼兄弟式的影响。1414The number of consecutive quarters Apple has grown — a streak that is now at risk. The tech giant last reported a year-on-year quarterly decline in 2019, but the punishing impact of China’s “zero Covid” policy on supply chains and consumer spending in one of its biggest markets now poses a big threat. Apple produces more than 95 percent of its iPhones in China and warned last month that it would ship fewer of its newest models after a Covid outbreak and weekslong lockdown at the device’s biggest manufacturing hub. That could have hit sales in the crucial holiday quarter.苹果连续增长的季度数——这一势头现在正面临风险。这家科技巨头上一次公布的季度同比下降是在2019年,但中国“清零”政策对其最大市场之一的供应链和消费者支出的痛苦影响现在构成了巨大威胁。苹果公司95%以上的iPhone是在中国生产的,该公司上个月警告,在新冠疫情暴发和iPhone最大的制造中心被封锁数周后,该公司将减少其最新型号的出货量。这可能会影响关键的假日季的销售。8 billion80亿The amount in dollars of the shortfall in FTX’s accounts when the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Sam Bankman-Fried declared bankruptcy last month. The company, once seen as one of the most stable in the sector, could owe money to more than a million people and organizations. Mr. Bankman-Fried was once lauded as an industry leader, able to secure funding from top investors who backed a wide range of causes and businesses, from charities and politicians to sports and the news media. But he is now under criminal investigation, former top associates are cooperating with the authorities, and FTX has been called “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.”上月萨姆·班克曼—弗里德创立的加密货币交易所FTX宣布破产时该交易所账户上的美元缺口。该公司曾被视为该行业最稳定的公司之一,现在可能欠了100多万人及组织的钱。班克曼—弗里德曾被誉为行业领袖,能够从顶级投资者那里获得资金,这些投资者支持广泛的事业和企业,从慈善机构和政治人士到体育和新闻媒体。但现在他正在接受刑事调查,他的前高级助手正在与当局合作,FTX被称为“美国历史上最大的金融欺诈之一”。11 years and three months11年零3个月The length of time that Elizabeth Holmes, the founder of the blood-testing start-up Theranos, was sentenced to prison after being convicted of defrauding investors. (Ramesh Balwani, the company’s former C.O.O., was sentenced to nearly 13 years.) Ms. Holmes raised $945 million and her company was valued as high as $9 billion, turning her into one of Silicon Valley’s most celebrated entrepreneurs. But her claims that Theranos’s technology would enable tests to be conducted with just a few drops of blood proved untrue.血液检测初创公司Theranos的创始人伊丽莎白·霍姆斯因欺诈投资者被判入狱的时间。(该公司前首席运营官拉梅什·巴尔瓦尼被判近13年监禁。)霍姆斯筹集了9.45亿美元,她的公司估值高达90亿美元,使她成为硅谷最著名的企业家之一。但她声称Theranos的技术只需几滴血就能进行检测,这被证明是不真实的。747747Boeing produced its final humpbacked jumbo jet on Dec. 6. The industry’s push for more fuel-efficient planes and the pandemic proved the death knell for the onetime titan of the skies. The plane made its first commercial flight in January 1970. By being able to carry hundreds of passengers at a time, the 747 helped drive a boom in international travel. But its market share fell in recent years, as airlines shifted to more sustainable and less expensive aircraft.12月6日,波音公司生产了最后一架该型号巨型喷气式飞机。航空业对更省油飞机的推动和新冠疫情为这个曾经的航空业巨头敲响了丧钟。1970年1月,该型号飞机进行了首次商业飞行。由于一次能搭载数百名乘客,747帮助推动了国际旅行的繁荣。但近年来,随着航空公司转向更可持续、更便宜的飞机,它的市场份额有所下降。Andrew Ross Sorkin是时报专栏作者,也是交易录专栏的创始人和编辑。他还是CNBC“Squawk Box”栏目的联合主播,著有《Too Big to Fail》一书。他还是Showtime剧集《Billions》的联合制片人。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。Bernhard Warner于2022年加入时报,担任交易录专栏的高级编辑。此前,他是《财富》杂志的资深作者和编辑,负责商业、经济和市场新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注他:@sarahfkessler。Sarah Kessler是交易录专栏的高级编辑,也是关于零工经济的《Gigged》一书的作者。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@sarahfkessler。Stephen Gandel是交易录专栏的新闻编辑。他曾是哥伦比亚广播公司新闻频道的高级记者,也是彭博社的专栏作家。他职业生涯的大部分时间都在报道华尔街和金融公司。欢迎在Twitter上关注他:@stephengandel。Michael de la Merced自2006年加入时报,担任记者,报道华尔街和金融。他的主要报道领域包括并购、破产和私募股权行业。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。Lauren Hirsch于2020年从CNBC加入时报,报道商业、政策和并购。她在康奈尔大学学习比较文学,并拥有达特茅斯塔克商学院的工商管理硕士学位。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@laurenshirsch。Ephrat Livni自华盛顿为交易录报道商业和政策的交叉领域。此前,她是Quartz的高级记者,报道法律和政治,还曾在公共和私营部门从事法律工作。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@el72champs。翻译:杜然、晋其角点击查看本英文版。

Source: 过去一年,新闻中的重要数字


SHERYL Same Currency Pair STOLBERG, BENJAMIN MUELLER2022年12月29日中国丹寨,正在给人做核酸的医务工作者。 Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe Biden administration announced on Wednesday that travelers from China, Hong Kong and Macau must present negative Covid-19 tests before entering the United States, a move that it says is intended to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The requirement will take effect on Jan. 5.拜登政府周三宣布,从中国、香港和澳门出发入境的旅客在进入美国之前必须提供新冠检测阴性证明,并表示此举旨在减缓新冠病毒的传播。该措施将于1月5日生效。The announcement, by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, came amid growing concern over a surge of cases in China and the country’s lack of transparency about the outbreak there.美国疾控中心宣布该消息之际,对于中国感染激增以及该国在本轮疫情中缺乏透明度的担忧正日益增多。C.D.C. officials said the requirement for testing will apply to air passengers regardless of their nationality and vaccination status. It will also apply to travelers coming from China who enter the United States through a third country, and to those who connect through the United States to other destinations. Italy and Japan have already imposed similar restrictions.疾控中心官员表示,检测要求将适用于所有航空旅客,无论其国籍和疫苗接种状况如何。对于从中国经由第三国进入美国,以及经美国转机前往其他目的地的旅客也适用。意大利和日本已经实施了类似的限制。But as they did when President Donald J. Trump imposed pandemic travel limitations, some experts questioned whether the testing requirement would do any good — especially given the surge in cases in the northeastern United States. The American trend is being fueled by an especially fast-spreading Omicron subvariant: XBB, which appears to be spreading more quickly than ones related to the dominant variant in Beijing.但正如特朗普总统实施过的疫情旅行限制一样,一些专家质疑强制检测可能没有任何作用——特别是考虑到美国东北部感染已经激增的情况。美国的疫情来自传播性超强的奥密克戎XBB亚型变异株,它似乎比中国流行的主要变异株传播速度更快。“I understand politically why it must be done, but the bottom line is, it’s a false sense of security that we’re really slowing transmission,” said Michael T. Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.“从政治上讲,我理解必须这么做的原因,但总而言之,这是一种虚假的安全感,觉得我们真能减缓传播,”明尼苏达大学传染病研究和政策中心主任迈克尔·奥斯特霍姆表示。China’s Covid outbreak has been worsening in recent days, with local governments reporting hundreds of thousands of infections a day. Videos obtained by The New York Times show sick patients crowding hospital hallways. But the situation is difficult to track in real time because China does not release reliable Covid data.中国的新冠疫情最近几天一直在恶化,地方政府每天都报告数以十万计的感染。《纽约时报》获得的视频显示,医院的走廊里挤满了病人。但由于中国没有发布可靠的新冠数据,很难实时追踪疫情的发展。After three years of insisting on a “zero Covid” policy, China made an abrupt turnabout in early December and lifted that policy, after mass protests over lockdowns that threatened the ruling Communist Party. Since then, there has been an explosion of cases in Beijing.在坚持“新冠清零”政策三年后,中国在12月突然转向取消了该政策,此前反对封锁的大规模抗议威胁到了执政的中共。自那以后,中国的感染出现了爆炸式增长。Scientists in Hong Kong have reported that an Omicron subvariant known as BF.7 has been responsible for the Beijing outbreak. That variant is a sublineage of BA.5, which has until recently been dominant in the United States. But BF.7, while present in the United States for months, has not shown signs of outcompeting other versions of Omicron here.香港科学家报告称,中国的疫情来自于一种名为BF.7的奥密克戎亚型变异株。该变异株是BA.5的亚分支,直到最近,BA.5一直都是美国流行的主要毒株。但BF.7虽然在美国传播了好几个月,但没有证据显示其传染性比国内其他奥密克戎变异株更强。The C.D.C. estimated that BF.7 made up 4 percent of cases in late December, and that it had become less common since November. Other Omicron subvariants that scientists believe may be more adept at evading existing immune responses, including XBB, are currently more prevalent in the United States.美国疾控中心估计,在12月底的感染中,BF.7约占到4%,且自11月以来变得不再那么流行。科学家认为,其他包括XBB在内的奥密克戎亚型变异株可能更擅长逃避现有免疫反应,目前在美国更为普遍。Scientists said that, for now at least, the variant that fuels China’s outbreak may not necessarily be the one that most effectively sidesteps immune responses. Because so few people in China have been infected with versions of Omicron, any of the highly contagious Omicron subvariants that have been circling the world lately could take off there.科学家表示,至少就目前而言,导致中国疫情暴发的变异株可能不一定是最擅长避开免疫反应的变种。由于在中国感染过不同种类奥密克戎病毒的人还很少,因此最近全球流行的任何具有高度传染性的奥密克戎亚型变异株都可能在那里大肆传播。In a population like China’s with so little existing immunity from infections, the dominant variant may not necessarily be the one that is best at getting around those immune responses, but simply the one that happens to catch fire, they said.他们说,像中国这样对感染免疫力非常低的人口,占主导地位的变异株不一定就是最擅长逃避这些免疫反应的变种,而只是碰巧传播起来的。“In some sense, whatever took off first is probably going to be dominant there,” said James Wood, an infectious disease expert at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.“从某种意义上说,无论最先传播的是何种毒株,很可能都会在那里占据主导地位,”悉尼新南威尔士大学传染病专家詹姆斯·伍德表示。In the United States, the C.D.C. estimated last week that the XBB subvariant has grown to account for nearly a fifth of cases in the country, up from only 3 percent of cases a month earlier.在美国,疾控中心上周估计,XBB亚型变异株已增长到占据全国近五分之一的病例,一个月前这一数字仅为3%。XBB is spreading especially quickly across the northeast United States, scientists have said, accounting for more than half of new infections there. And it appears to have an advantage over the BQ.1 Omicron subvariants that have lately been dominant in the United States, scientists said.科学家表示,XBB在美国东北部蔓延得特别快,占到当地新增病例的一半以上。科学家说,它似乎比近来在美国占主导地位的BQ.1奥密克戎亚型变异株更厉害。Scientists are in the early stages of studying the XBB subvariant. They said that an even newer version of that subvariant had emerged, known as XBB.1.5. Preliminary studies have suggested that that latest version of XBB is adept at evading existing immune responses and at binding to human cells.科学家正处于研究XBB亚型变异株的早期阶段。他们说XBB的一个更新版本已经出现,被称为XBB.1.5。初步研究表明,这个最新版的XBB善于逃避现有免疫反应,还能与人体细胞结合。Emily Anthes及Karan Deep Singh对本文有报道贡献。 Sheryl Same Currency Pair Stolberg是一名报道卫生政策的华盛顿记者。在《纽约时报》的二十多年里,她还负责过报道白宫、国会和国内政治。加入时报前,她曾在《洛杉矶时报》作为都市版的报道团队成员赢得过两项普利策奖。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@SherylNYT。Benjamin Mueller是一名健康和科学记者。此前,他作为驻伦敦记者报道了冠状病毒大流行,还曾负责报道纽约市警察。欢迎在Twiiter上关注他:@benjmueller翻译:Harry Wong点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 美国将要求自中国入境旅客提供新冠阴性证明


JODY ROSEN2022年12月23日 Photo illustration by Alicia TatoneIf brevity is the soul of wit, as some wag once said, maybe no words is the wittiest option of all. Late in November, at least 10 people died in a high-rise fire in Urumqi, the regional capital of Xinjiang, in western China. It was widely believed that Covid restrictions prevented the victims from escaping, and anger spilled into the streets, first in Urumqi and then across China, where stringent anti-Covid measures have subjected citizens to home lockdowns, constant testing and confinement in grim quarantine centers. Demonstrators appeared in cities and on college campuses, criticizing Covid policies or even denouncing the Communist Party and its leader, Xi Jinping. Many brandished a symbol of protest: plain, unmarked sheets of white paper.有人曾说,简洁是智慧的灵魂,那或许,无言才是最明智的选择。11月下旬,中国西部新疆的首府乌鲁木齐市一幢高层建筑发生火灾,造成至少10人丧生。民众普遍认为,是新冠防控措施导致遇难者未能逃离,愤怒情绪蔓延至街头,首先是在乌鲁木齐,然后发展到全国各地,严苛的防疫迫使公民被封在家中,不断接受核酸检测,并被关进条件恶劣的隔离中心。城市中和大学校园里出现了示威者,他们批评新冠政策,甚至要求中共及其领导人习近平下台。许多人手里拿着一个抗议的标志:普普通通、什么都没写的白纸。Transfixing videos emerged. At a vigil in Shanghai, mourners held sheets of paper aloft as candles flickered. Students at Beijing’s Tsinghua University wielded sheets of paper and bellowed slogans calling for democracy and freedom of expression. At another Beijing rally, a crowd waved blank paper while chanting against Covid protocols. One much-shared tweet featured someone hurling stacks of paper into the air amid city traffic. Another viral clip showed a dramatic piece of street theater: a Newbie trader woman marching among pedestrians holding a sheet of paper, her mouth covered with black tape, her wrists bound with chains.网上出现了令人惊叹的视频。在上海的一场守夜活动,哀悼者在烛光中举起白纸。北京清华大学的学生挥舞着白纸,大喊着民主和言论自由的口号。在北京的另一场集会上,一群人拿着白纸,高声反对新冠政策。一条广为流传的推文展示了有人在城市车流中向空中抛洒一叠叠白纸的场面。另一条得到大量转发的视频则显示了街头的戏剧性场面:一名年轻女子拿着一张纸在人群中游行,她的嘴上贴着黑色胶带,手腕上绑着铁链。Commentators were quick to interpret the meaning of the “white-paper protests.” A blank sign is both a symbol and a tactic. It is a passive-aggressive protest against censorship, a sarcastic performance of compliance that signals defiance. Its power rests in a shared understanding, by both the public and the authorities, of the unwritten message; it rests also in the awareness that to say anything at all is to run afoul of a government that brooks no opposition, suppressing even the suggestion of an intention to speak. A tweet posted days after the fire showed a photo of a man, apparently in a Shanghai mall, holding a sign reading, “You know what I want to say.” According to the tweet, he was taken away by the police.评论人士很快开始解读“白纸抗议”的内涵。空白既是一种象征,也是一种策略。这是对审查制度的一种消极攻击式抗议,是一种带有讽刺意味的顺从,实际上表达了反抗。它的力量在于公众和当局对未写信息的共识;也在于这样一种认知,即只要说话,就等于是在违抗这个不能容忍任何反对意见、连发声意图都要压制的政府。火灾发生数日后的一条推文展示了照片中的身处上海某购物中心的一名男子,他举了一块牌子,上面写着:“你知道我要说什么。”那条推文称,他已被警方带走。In the days after the fire, Chinese Communist Party censors moved to expunge hashtags like “A4Revolution” (a reference to the size of the paper) and “white paper exercise” from social media. A sheet of paper may be the ultimate “analog” artifact, but it has emerged as an unusually potent digital-age totem — a meme that is rebounding in fascinating ways between the street and the virtual world. For all the tumult at the barricades, the white signs may reveal more about algorithms, data flow and the way images and ideas resonate online.火灾发生后,中共的审查人员开始在社交媒体上删除“A4革命”(A4是纸张的尺寸)和“白纸运动”等话题。一张纸或许是最好的“类比”物,但它已成为一种异常强大的数字时代图腾——即以极为有趣的形式折返于街头和虚拟世界的米姆。尽管路障附近有种种混乱,但这些白色标志可能更多地揭示了关于算法、数据流以及影像和思想在网上引发共鸣的方式。The antecedents of white-paper protests stretch back at least as far as 1924, when a Krakow newspaper reportedly published a blank special supplement as a satirical rebuke to censors. In 1965, an episode of “Candid Camera” featured a prank in which protesters with blank placards picketed in front of a vacant lot in New York. Four years later, students at a high school in Toronto held a mock sit-in featuring blank signs and a blank list of “demands.” An Associated Press report about the protest bore the cheeky headline “ , Students Demand.”白纸抗议的先例最早能追溯到1924年,据称当时克拉科夫市一家报纸出版了一份空白的特刊,作为对审查人员的讽刺谴责。1965年,《偷拍》(Candid Camera)有一集内容讲的就是抗议者的恶作剧,他们拿着空白的标语牌在纽约一处空地前聚集。四年后,多伦多一所高中的学生举行了一次模拟静坐示威,亮出了空白标语和空白的“诉求”清单。美联社给这场抗议的报道安了一个恶搞标题——《学生诉求》。In retrospect, those 1960s stunts seem ideologically conservative: They were parodies, staged at the height of the civil rights era and the Vietnam War, that mocked the very idea of protest. But in recent times, citizens have turned the comedy of blank signs in the opposite direction. The signs have been used as props in pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong, and by Russian opponents of the Ukraine invasion. In September, following Queen Elizabeth’s death, anti-monarchy demonstrators were reportedly arrested in Scotland. Soon more protesters appeared — now carrying blank signs.回头再看,上世纪60年代的那些噱头在意识形态上似乎是保守的:那是在民权时代和越战期间矛盾最激烈之时上演的拙劣模仿,嘲讽的正是抗议的概念本身。但近年来,公民已将空白标志代表的诙谐含义反转。香港的民主示威、反对入侵乌克兰的俄罗斯人都使用过这种标志。9月,在伊丽莎白女王去世后,有报道称反君主制示威者在苏格兰被捕。很快就出现了更多举着空白标志的抗议者。These signs tell an absurdist joke, ridiculing both censorship and those who enforce it. They function as bait: When security forces — often uniformed and well armed — detain a citizen holding a blank sign, the paranoia and irrationality of state power is thrown into relief. Like a shrewd act of internet trolling, the blank sign is a button-pusher that lures its target into a revealing self-own.这些标志都代表了荒诞的玩笑,嘲笑了审查制度及其执行者。它们就像一种诱饵:当通常穿着制服、装备精良的安全部队抓捕一位举着空白标志的公民,国家权力的妄想症和非理性就会暴露无遗。这就像网络水军的精明计谋一样,空白标志是诱使目标自我暴露的开关。Traditional protest symbols, like banners and flags, may have less currency in the social media age. The emblems that capture the imagination tend to be humble and unexpected, with the feel of organic memes, like the umbrellas used as shields in Hong Kong. Often, these symbols strike notes of irony and absurdity. In Thailand, pro-democracy demonstrators have embraced an even more unlikely icon than white paper: inflatable rubber ducks.横幅和旗帜这种传统的抗议标志在社交媒体时代可能已经不再通用。激发想象力的标志往往是谦和而又出乎意料的,就像某种生动的米姆,例如在香港被当作盾牌使用的雨伞。这些符号通常带有讽刺和荒诞的意味。在泰国,民主示威者选择了一个比白纸更夸张的标志:充气橡皮鸭。China’s blank signs have proved to be superlative meme-fodder. T-shirts have popped up featuring an illustration of Winnie-the-Pooh reading a blank page — a double joke aimed at Xi Jinping, who was likened to A.A. Milne’s roly-poly bear in memes that are banned on the Chinese internet. The signs have inspired more ambitious spectacles. Ai Weiwei, the exiled Chinese artist, posted an Instagram video in which he is shown writing a free-speech message on blank paper in UV invisible ink. A performance-art piece featured a woman covered in white paper being sprayed with red paint by a person in a hazmat suit reminiscent of China’s P.P.E.-clad “big whites.”中国的空白标志已被证明是绝佳的米姆素材。印着在阅读空白纸张的小熊维尼的T恤已经出现,这是嘲讽习近平的双重笑话,将他比作A·A·米恩创作的滚圆小熊的米姆,在中国互联网上被封禁。这些标志激发了更多雄心勃勃的奇观。流亡的中国艺术家艾未未发布了一段Instagram视频,他在其中用紫外线隐形墨水在白纸上写下了关于言论自由的信息。在一场行为艺术表演中,一名身披白纸女子被身穿防护服的人——让人联想到中国裹在个人防护服之下的“大白”——喷上红漆。Internet battles between protesters and the powers that be are heightened in China, where the internet is heavily censored and a surveillance dragnet sweeps up life online and off. From the moment protests erupted in Urumqi, skirmishes began between users uploading images of demonstrations and the state’s censorship apparatus, which worked to obliterate all traces of them. Users employed trickery to evade the algorithms designed to catch outlawed content: They recorded videos of videos, or rotated them on their sides, or used V.P.N.s to “store” data on sites like Twitter and Instagram, outside the purview of Chinese censors. These efforts to find cracks in the country’s “great firewall” have been essential to the protests. There is reason to believe they have been a success: The Chinese government has since taken steps to curb its strict Covid guidelines.在互联网受到严格审查、天网监控着线上和线下一切日常的中国,抗议者与当权者之间的网络斗争愈演愈烈。从乌鲁木齐爆发抗议的一刻起,上传示威图片和试图抹掉所有痕迹的国家审查机器就爆发了冲突。网民试图骗过旨在捕捉非法内容的算法:他们翻录视频,或是将视频反转,要么就使用VPN在Twitter和Instagram这种不受中国审查控制的网站“存放”数据。这些在中国“防火长城”中寻找裂缝的努力对抗议活动至关重要。有理由相信他们取得了成功:中国政府此后采取措施,取消了严格的新冠防控规定。Of course, protesters may still face harsh consequences, especially those who dared to voice broader critiques of China’s authoritarianism. But their criticisms linger in all that white paper, blank signs that carry echoes of ideas from across decades and centuries. There is the famous paradox of John Cage: “I have nothing to say, and I am saying it.” There’s the blank page in Laurence Sterne’s “Tristram Shandy,” and the white-on-white paintings of Robert Ryman — artworks whose eloquent emptiness is WTO (World Trade Organization) with possibility, expressing the ineffable. The blank sign, for the protester who wields it and the government that disdains it, is full of potential: It is a tabula rasa, upon which every imaginable complaint, exhortation, remonstration, provocation, taunt, threat and irrefutable truth might someday be inscribed. Or maybe it’s more accurate to say that those things are already written there — figuratively, at least — in invisible ink. The signs say nothing; they speak volumes.当然,抗议者——尤其是那些敢对中国威权提出更广泛批评的人——仍可能面临严峻后果。他们的批判在所有白纸上挥之不去,空白的标志承载了历史长河里回荡的思想。正如约翰·凯奇那句著名的悖论:“我无话可说,而我正在说。”劳伦斯·斯特恩在《项狄传》写下了空白页,罗伯特·瑞曼画出了白底画——艺术作品中空虚的传神蕴藏着可能性,表达了不可言喻的内容。对于挥舞它的抗议者和厌恶它的政府,空白标志充满了力量:它是一块白板,但总有一天上面或许就会出现所有能想象到的抱怨、控诉、抗议、挑衅、嘲讽、威胁和无可辩驳的真理。或者更准确地说,这些东西已经被(至少是象征意义上的)隐形墨水写在上面了。空白标志什么都没说;但它们掷地有声。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 如何在审查中抗议?一张掷地有声的白纸

General News 经济新闻 / 《纽约时报》2022年度最佳电影
« on: December 24, 2022, 06:00:13 PM »

MANOHLA DARGIS, A.O. SCOTT2022年12月20日南·高登(前)在纪录片《美人与流血事件》中。 Nan GoldinManohla Dargis曼诺拉·达吉斯The Most Fearless Visions无所畏惧的影像In 1985, The New York Times’s longtime film critic Vincent Canby wrote an inspired, admirably cranky essay about the future of cinema. The spark for his ruminations was “Room 666,” a documentary from Wim Wenders that had just opened in New York. Shot during the 1982 Cannes Film Festival, the movie consists of different directors alone in a hotel room where they respond to a question that Wenders had written on a piece of paper: “Is cinema a language that is about to get lost, an art that is about to die?”1985年,《纽约时报》老牌影评人文森特·坎比写了一篇有感而发的文章,用令人称奇的暴躁语调谈了电影的未来。引发他反思的是维姆·文德斯的纪录片《666号房间》(Room 666),当时刚在纽约上映。影片拍摄于1982年坎城影展期间,是几位导演独自一人待在一个酒店房间里,回答一个文德斯写在纸上的问题:“电影是一种即将滚一边去的语言,还是一门行将就木的艺术?”The first director — and the other inspiration for Canby’s disquiet — was Jean-Luc Godard, who described Wenders’s project as an inquest on the future of films. For the next 10 minutes or so, Godard, smoking his familiar cigar, meditates on this vexing, evergreen question with his characteristic intelligence, opacity and epigrammatic wit. The news isn’t good. “The dream of Hollywood is to make one film,” Godard says, “and it’s television that makes it, but which is distributed everywhere” — which is as good a description of our NetflixDisneyMarvel world as I’ve read.第一位导演——另一个令坎比大为忧虑的原因——是让-吕克·戈达尔,他形容文德斯的这个计划是对电影未来的一次审讯。接下来10分钟左右的时间里,戈达尔抽着他那熟悉的雪茄,用他特有的智慧、暧昧和警世妙语,思考着这个令人烦闷却又历久弥新的问题。看来,情况不太妙。“好莱坞的梦想是拍一部电影,”戈达尔说,“但最终成事的是电视,它可以传播到任何地方”——这是我读到的对我们这个“网飞迪士尼漫威”世界的最佳描述。For Canby, Godard’s prediction of a one-movie world had already come to pass. Acclaimed films from the likes of Jonathan Demme were struggling at a box office dominated by wide releases like “Beverly Hills Cop.” Canby believed that there was plenty of blame to go around, pointing to risk-averse money types and a “sheeplike” public. He wrote that “our society is being increasingly homogenized, possibly through the pervasive power of television to plant the same ideas, the same fears and the same fads in more people, more quickly, than has ever before been possible in the history of the world.” Yikes!在坎比看来,戈达尔预言的一部电影的世界已经过去了。乔纳森·德默这样的人拍出受赞誉的影片,票房却很惨淡,没法跟《比佛利山超级警探》(Beverly Hills Cop)这种得到广泛上映的大热门媲美。坎比认为原因有许多,比如不愿担风险的资本和“喂啥吃啥”的公众。他写道,“我们的社会日渐同质化,可能是通过电视无所不在的力量,以史上空前的速度,在空前之多的人当中,培育相同的观念、相同的恐惧和相同的狂热。”完蛋了!I don’t think Canby and Godard were entirely right (feel free to discuss among yourselves), but after nearly four decades and innumerable interchangeable franchise sequels, it’s clear they weren’t entirely wrong. Yet, all these years later — and even as the industry struggles through yet another of its interminable crises — I am again heartened by all of the good and great movies that continue to be released. People often ask me if I’ve seen any good movies lately. I have, many of them, this and every year, but if I can’t tempt you with one of my favorites of 2022, I suggest you watch a film or two by Godard.我并不完全同意坎比和戈达尔(这方面大家可以尽情讨论),但近四十年的时间和无数看上去差不多的大片续集之后,显然他们说对了一些东西。不过,经过这么些年——何况电影业正在又一场看不到尽头的危机之中挣扎——我再一次被不断涌现的好片、杰作所打动。常有人问我最近看了什么好电影。我说有很多,哪一年都有,但是如果我给出的2022年心水之选你全都没兴趣,那么我建议看一两部戈达尔。His soul left the world on Sept. 13; his movies will live forever. 他的灵魂于9月13日离开人世;他的电影将得到永生。1. ‘EO’ (Jerzy Skolimowski)1. 《伊偶》(EO) ,导演:耶日·斯科利莫夫斯基Soon after this indelible heartbreaker opens, a little circus donkey called EO — named for the sounds he makes — sets off on a strange, at times phantasmagoric, adventure. Along the way, he encounters other animals but, more consequently, kind and cruel people whose treatment of him reflects the denatured world that we have made. Now 84, Skolimowski has made one of the rare movies that speak to life’s most essential questions, and he’s done so with the ecstatic vision and fearlessness of a cinematic genius who seems as if he’s just getting started. (In theaters.)在令人难忘、心碎的开场之后,马戏团小驴伊偶——这名字来自他的叫声——很快开始了一段怪异的、有时显得不真实的历险。一路上他遇到过别的动物,不过更重要的还是一些人,这些人有好有坏,他们对待他的方式反映出我们创造了一个跟自然相去甚远的世界。如今已84岁高龄的斯科利莫夫斯基拍出了一种触及生命最本质问题的罕见电影,而其中呈现的癫狂影像和无所畏惧的态度,仿佛来自一个初出茅庐的电影天才。(上映中。) Sideshow and Janus Films2. ‘Petite Maman’ (Céline Sciamma)2. 《小妈妈》(Petite Maman),导演:瑟琳·席安玛Set largely in and around a house nestled in the woods, Sciamma’s Lilliputian tour de force is a wittily modern fairy tale and model of elegant narrative economy. At its charming center is a Newbie trader girl who together with another new acquaintance ventures forth on a modestly scaled yet expansive journey filled with delights and enchantment, one that finds our little heroine embarked on the greatest, most mysterious adventure of all: love. (Streaming on Hulu.)席安玛的小人国式杰作将主要场景设置在了丛林中的一座房屋及周围地带,这是一部妙语连珠的现代童话,也是优雅简洁叙事的典范。引人入胜的核心情节是关于一名年轻女孩,她与新认识的伙伴冒险踏上了一段范围不大但深远的旅程,充满快乐与魔力,让我们的小女主人公得以经历最伟大、最神秘的冒险:爱。(Hulu点播。)5. ‘Kimi’ (Steven Soderbergh)5. 《琪米》(Kimi),导演:史蒂文·索德伯格There isn’t a false or wrong note in this witty thriller about a woman facing multiple challenges, including her own (well-founded!) anxieties about the world. Set very much in the now — our heroine, a resourceful tech worker played by a terrific Zoë Kravitz, wears a mask when she goes outside — the movie touches on a number of intersecting subjects, including isolation and surveillance technology as a means of oppression. But it’s Soderbergh’s supremely assured filmmaking that has repeatedly brought me back to this playful delightful. (Streaming on HBO Max.)这部诙谐机智的惊悚片节奏上没有任何行差踏错,讲述了一位女性面临多重挑战,包括她自己(理由充分!)对世界的焦虑。故事背景类似当下,我们的女主人公是一位足智多谋、出门要戴口罩的科技工作者,由出色的佐伊·克罗维兹扮演。这部电影触及了许多相互关联的主题,包括作为压迫手段的隔离和监控技术。但索德伯格笃定无比的拍摄手法让我对这部生动有趣的影片流连忘返。(HBO Max点播。)6. ‘The Eternal Daughter’ (Joanna Hogg)6. 《永恒的女儿》(The Eternal Daughter),导演:乔安娜·霍格A stunning Tilda Swinton plays both a mother and her adult daughter in this beautifully controlled, affecting story about memory and grief. When it opens, the two are en route to a getaway at an elegant estate, a trip that soon turns beguilingly mysterious. With precision, gentle humor and some sly cinematic chicanery, Hogg and her brilliant actress turn something that looks ordinary into something quite extraordinary. (In theaters.)在这关于回忆和悲伤的优美克制而又动人的故事中,惊艳的蒂尔达·斯文顿一人分饰母亲和她已成年的女儿。影片开场是两人正在前往一处雅致庄园的途中,这次旅行很快就充满了神秘的谜团。霍格与她才华横溢的女主角用细腻的情感、温柔的幽默以及带有些许狡黠的电影骗术,把原本平平无奇的事件变得相当不同寻常。(上映中。)7. ‘Happening’ (Audrey Diwan)7. 《正发生》(Happening),导演:奥黛丽·迪万Based on the memoir by Annie Ernaux — who won the Nobel Prize in literature this year — “Happening” is one of several powerful recent movies that understand abortion as a fundamental right and an index of a culture’s attitude toward women. With intimacy and lucid resolve, Diwan makes it clear that abortion isn’t simply grist for hand-wringing and political argument; it is instead, a practical and necessary means by which her heroine can secure self-sovereignty, a future, a life. There is only one choice for her, and it is hers to make. (For rent on most major platforms.)《正发生》改编自今年诺贝尔文学奖得主安妮·埃尔诺的回忆录,是近年来将堕胎视为基本人权、反映一种文化对女性态度的极具感染力的影片之一。迪万用亲切和清醒决绝的态度表明,堕胎并不仅仅是焦虑绝望和政治争论的素材;相反,这是一种切实必要的手段,她的女主人公可以依靠这种手段来确保其自主权、未来和生活。她只有一个选择,也是属于她自己的选择。(可在大多数主流平台租赁。)8. ‘Decision to Leave’ (Park Chan-wook)8. 《分手的决心》(Decision to Leave),导演:朴赞郁One of the dizzying pleasures of this labyrinthine movie is that it’s a delirious riff on “Vertigo,” Alfred HitchKeynesian economics and Techincal Analyzer’s aching 1958 drama about a male detective’s obsession with a mystery woman. Once again, there is a man and a woman as well as love and betrayal. Yet as “Decision to Leave” unfolds and settles into its own distinctively kinked groove, the movie’s emotional focus progressively shifts from the obsessed lover to the object of his relentless, uncomprehending gaze, and Park’s clever homage turns into a poignant rejoinder. (In theaters.)这部影片剧情错综复杂,令人眼花缭乱的观影乐趣之一,就是它用荒诞手法复刻了阿尔弗雷德·希区柯克1958年的《迷魂记》,讲述了一名男性侦探对一名神秘女子的迷恋。又是一男一女,又是爱与背叛。然而随着《分手的决心》剧情展开,故事进入了独有的曲折,其情感焦点逐渐从痴情爱人转移到他带着无情和困惑所凝视的对象,朴赞郁巧妙的致敬变成尖锐的反驳。(上映中。)9. ‘Expedition Content’ (Ernst Karel and Veronika Kusumaryati)9. 《探险内容》(Expedition Content),导演:(恩斯特·卡雷尔、维罗妮卡·库苏马亚蒂)This documentary made for the weirdest moviegoing experience I had this year, partly because for most of its 78 minutes all it shows is a black screen. Although the movie includes a few brief visuals, the relative absence of imagery forces your attention on the soundtrack, which consists of audio recorded during the making of “Dead Birds” (1964), an ethnographic classic about the Dani people of New Guinea. The result is a mind-expanding inquiry on anthropology — how it speaks and for whom — and on cinema itself. (More information on the film is here.)这部纪录片是我今年最奇异的观影体验,部分原因是在78分钟片长的大部分时间里,它都是黑屏的。虽然影片包含了一些简短的视觉效果,但相对较少的影响会迫使观众把注意力集中在电影原声上,其中包括拍摄《死鸟》(1964年)时录制的音频,这是一部关于新几内亚达尼族人的经典民族志作品。其体验就是对人类学——它表达了什么以及为谁表达——和电影本身的一次发人深省的探索。(点击此处了解本片更多信息。)10. ‘All the Beauty and the Bloodshed’ (Laura Poitras)10. 《美人与流血事件》(All the Beauty and the Bloodshed),导演:劳拉·珀特拉斯Poitras’s tough-minded, formally graceful portrait of the photographer Nan Goldin, her art and her activism, opens with Goldin huddled with some like-minded compatriots outside the Metropolitan Museum of Art. Before long, Goldin et al., are staging a die-in inside the institution, one of many such protests that she and others mounted against institutions that had taken money from members of the Sackler family whose company, Purdue Pharma, developed the opioid painkiller OxyContin. As Poitras goes on to show, Goldin’s protest is just the latest chapter for an artist who draws beauty from bloodshed. (In theaters.)珀特拉斯以坚定的姿态和优雅的形式描绘了摄影师南·高登的形象,以及她的艺术作品和行动主义,开场即是高登在大都会艺术博物馆外与志同道合者聚首的画面。很快,高登一行人就在博物馆内进行了一场装死抗议,这是她和其他人发起的许多此类抗议活动之一,抗议的对象是那些接受萨克勒家族成员资助的机构,阿片类止痛药奥施康定正是由该家族经营的企业普渡制药研发。正如珀特拉斯继续展示的那样,高登的抗议只是这位从血腥中汲取美感的艺术家最新一段人生篇章。(上映中。)And make sure to watch: “Armageddon Time”; “The Cathedral”; “Corsage; “Descendant”; “Dos Estaciones”; “Funny Pages”; “Futura”; “Great Freedom”; “Hold Your Fire”; “I Didn’t See You There”; “Intregalde”; “Lingui, The Sacred Bonds”; “Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues”; “Nanny”; “Playground”; “Pleasure”; “Return to Seoul”; “Riotsville, U.S.A.”; “Three Minutes: A Lengthening”; “The Tsugua Diaries”; “Till”; “The Woman King”; and “The Worst Person in the World.”也不要错过:《世界末日》(Armageddon Time);《大教堂》(The Cathedral);《束胸》(Corsage);《非洲城的后裔》(Descendant);《两季》(Dos Estaciones);《有趣页面》(Funny Pages);《未来》(Futura);《伟大的自由》(Great Freedom);《不要开枪》(Hold Your Fire);《我未在那见过你》(I Didn’t See You There);《恩特雷加尔代》(Intregalde);《纽带》(Lingui, The Sacred Bonds);《路易斯·阿姆斯特朗:黑与蓝》(Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues);《移民保姆》(Nanny);《童一个世界》(Playground);《欢愉》(Pleasure);《回首尔》(Return to Seoul);《美利坚合众国里奥茨维尔》(Riotsville, U.S.A.);《三分钟——超展开》(Three Minutes: A Lengthening);《月八日记》(The Tsugua Diaries);《蒂尔》(Till);《达荷美女战士》(The Woman King);以及《世界上最糟糕的人》(The Worst Person in the World)。A.O. ScottA·O·斯科特The Best Questions Raised by Movies电影提出的最佳问题Scrolling through my memories of 2022, I find a lot of interesting movies and a lot of anxious, contradictory opinionizing about The State of Cinema. Most of it had to do with one question: Would people venture back into theaters post-pandemic, or did the future belong to streaming? The boffo success of “Top Gun: Maverick” in May and “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” in November didn’t quite settle the issue.回顾我对2022年的记忆,我发现了很多有趣的电影和很多关于电影现状的焦虑、矛盾的观点。其中大部分关乎一个问题:人们会在大流行后重返影院,或是未来是流媒体的时代?5月《壮志凌云:独行侠》(Top Gun: Maverick)和11月《黑豹2》(Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)的大获成功并没有完全解决这个问题。Neither does the proliferation of movies that evoke the wonder and glory of the movie past. Cine-nostalgia has become a genre in its own right. Last year’s tender elegies to celluloid, “Belfast” and “The Hand of God,” were followed this year by “The Fabelmans,” Steven Spielberg’s reflection on his own film-besotted youth; Sam Mendes’s “Empire of Light,” set in a fading seaside movie palace in early 1980s Britain; and “Babylon,” a fever dream of old Hollywood from Damien Chazelle.让人回忆电影业往昔奇迹和荣耀的电影泛滥成灾,但也没有解决这个问题。对电影怀旧本身已经成为一种题材。去年的《贝尔法斯特》(Belfast)和《上帝之手》(The Hand of God)是献给赛璐珞的温柔挽歌,紧随其后的是今年的《造梦之家》(The Fabelmans),这是史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格对自己年轻时痴迷电影的反思;在山姆·门德斯的《光之帝国》(Empre of Light)中,故事发生在20世纪80年代早期英国一座衰败的海滨电影院;还有《巴比伦》(Babylon)——达米恩·查泽雷对老好莱坞的狂热梦想。Sentimentality and self-consciousness can be signs of decadence. Set out to memorialize the glories of an embattled art form, and you may end up contributing to its obituary. Not that I think the movies are dying, any more than they have been dying for the past 90 years or so, as they were fatally menaced by sound, television, corporate greed and audience philistinism. The movies are always turning into something else, even as they drag their history along with them. Old styles persist alongside new possibilities, and originality finds a way to assert itself amid the thunderous conformity of the franchises and the howling  Earnings-price ratioerness of the algorithms.多愁善感和自我意识会被看作颓废的迹象。对于一种四面楚歌的艺术形式,要去纪念它过去的辉煌,你可能最终制造出了它的讣告。并不是说我认为电影正在消亡,就像过去90年来它们一直在消亡一样——它们受到过声音、电视、企业贪婪和观众庸俗主义的致命威胁。即使电影拖着长长的历史,它始终在变化成别的东西。旧的风格持续,与新的可能性并存,在电影系列轰轰烈烈的统一性和算法的荒原中,原创性找到了一种证明自己的方式。Like every other art, film advances through criticism, by which I don’t mean after-the-fact assessments by people like me, but the skeptical scrutiny that filmmakers bring to bear on the conditions and traditions of their own creative practice. The two best meta-movies of the year, Jordan Peele’s “Nope” and Jafar Panahi’s “No Bears,” accentuate the negative in their titles, and take tough, contrarian stands against gauzy clichés about the magic of movies and the power of imagination. They remind us that magic is always the product of hard, unglamorous work, and that power is never innocent.像所有其他艺术一样,电影通过批评而进步,我指的不是像我这样的人的事后评估,而是电影制作人对他们自己的创作实践的条件和传统的怀疑审视。乔丹·皮尔的《不》和贾法尔·帕纳西的《无熊之境》是今年的两部最佳元电影,它们强调了片名中的负面因素,反对电影的魔法和想象的力量这种华而不实的陈词滥调,采取了强硬、逆向的立场。它们提醒我们,魔法永远是艰苦、乏味的工作的产物,而权力从来都不是清白的。If one thing unites the 10 disparate choices on my list — which ranges from an old-fashioned French costume drama to an Afrofuturist science-fiction musical, with a couple of documentaries in the mix — it is that critical spirit. They seem to question not only the aspects of human experience they represent, but also their own methods and assumptions. They are pictures very much in motion, thinking out loud in the darkness.我的清单上有10部各不相同的电影,从老式的法国古装剧到非洲未来主义科幻音乐剧,还有几部纪录片,如果有什么东西可以将它们团结起来,那就是批判精神。它们似乎不仅质疑它们所展示的人类经验的各个方面,而且质疑它们自己的方法和假设。这些电影在运转着,在黑暗中说出自己的想法。1. ‘Nope’ (Jordan Peele)1.《不》(Nope),导演:乔丹·皮尔Some fans of Peele’s earlier films, “Get Out” and “Us,” may have been nonplused by this curious mash-up of western and science-fiction tropes. What was it saying? But the apparent absence of an overt allegorical or political message strikes me as an advance rather than a retreat. The movie is a genre joyride and a philosophical puzzle. And it has plenty to say — about labor, family, race, grief and (yes) movies — in a visual language that feels at once familiar and radically new. The playful, heartfelt performances (from Daniel Kaluuya, Keke Palmer, Steven Yeun and Brandon Perea) achieve the same kind of improbable, thrilling balance. (For rent on most major platforms.)皮尔早期电影《逃出绝命镇》(Get Out)和《我们》(Us)的一些影迷可能对这种西部片和科幻桥段的奇特混搭感到大惑不解。它在说什么?但我感觉这部电影里没有明显的寓言或政治信息是一种进步而不是退缩。这部电影不局限于类型,并且是一个哲学难题。它有很多话要说——关于劳动、家庭、种族、悲伤和(对,还有)电影,它的视觉语言让人立即感到熟悉又新颖。俏皮、发自内心的表演(来自丹尼尔·卡卢亚、柯柯·帕尔莫、史蒂文·元和布兰登·佩利亚)实现了同样不可思议、激动人心的平衡。(可在大多数主要平台上租赁观看。)丹尼尔·卡卢亚出演乔丹·皮尔执导影片《不》。2. ‘Neptune Frost’ (Saul Williams and Anisia Uzeyman)2.《海王星霜冻》(Neptune Frost),导演:索尔·威廉姆斯、安妮西亚·乌兹曼Speaking of radical and new, this masterpiece of anarchist aesthetics faces down our current dystopia — one in which African miners are worked to death to dig the minerals that power the West’s technology; Forex and Stock Speculatingual and political violence are endemic; ecological catastrophe and genocide are in danger of being normalized — and summons up a utopian spectacle of music, silliness, Forex and Stock Speculating and beauty. A hundred years from now, if the planet survives, this will be counted among the classics of our sorry time, taught in schools and quoted in speeches. (Streaming on the Criterion Channel and Kanopy.)说到激进和新颖,这部无政府主义美学的杰作直面我们当前的反乌托邦——非洲矿工为了挖掘为西方技术提供动力的矿物而工作到死;性暴力和政治暴力泛滥;生态灾难和种族灭绝有被正常化的危险——并唤起一出乌托邦奇观,包含音乐、糊涂、性和美。一百年后,如果地球还在,这部电影将成为我们悲哀时代的经典之作,被学校教授,被讲座引用。(在Criterion Channel和Kanopy上观看。)3. ‘Mr. Bachmann and His Class’ (Maria Speth)3. 《巴赫曼先生和他的学生》(Mr. Bachmann and His Class),导演:玛利亚·施佩特When they aren’t hailed as heroes, schoolteachers are held up as scapegoats. The actual work they do is rarely examined with the kind of rigorous, sympathetic scrutiny that Speth brings to this portrait of a German educator approaching retirement. Her documentary is an argument for paying attention and a lesson in how to do it. (Streaming on Mubi.)当教师不被誉为英雄时,就会被当作替罪羊。施佩特刻画了一个即将退休的德国教育家形象,很少有人带着严格且具有同情心的仔细体察去审视他们的实际工作。她的这部纪录片主张关注细节,并教人们如何做到这一点。(在Mubi上观看。)4. ‘Aftersun’ (Charlotte Wells)4. 《晒后假日》(Aftersun),导演:夏洛特·威尔斯A father (Paul Mescal) and his 11-year-old daughter, Sophie (Frankie Corio), take a vacation on the Turkish coast, a trip filtered through Sophie’s adult memory. This debut feature feels so matter-of-fact and unaffected that you may not notice the complexity and assurance of its craft. Its emotional power, though, is unmistakable. (In theaters.)一位父亲(保罗·梅斯卡尔)和他11岁的女儿索菲(弗兰基·科里奥)在土耳其海岸度假,这是成年索菲回忆中的一次旅行。这部处女作电影给人的感觉是如此的真实自然,以至于你可能没有注意到其技艺的复杂性和可靠性。然而,它的情感力量是确信无疑的。(上映中。)5. ‘No Bears’ (Jafar Panahi)5. 《无熊之境》(No Bears),导演:贾法·帕纳西Panahi, recently sentenced to prison in Iran (and previously banned from directing movies there), continues his relentless, humane investigation of his country and his vocation. Heartbroken but not quite despairing, he testifies to the power of cinema as a tool of resistance even as he reckons with its — and his own — limitations. (Coming to theaters.)帕纳希最近在伊朗被判入狱(此前他被禁止在那里执导电影),他继续对他的国家和他的职业进行不懈的、人道的调查。心碎但并未绝望,他证明了电影作为抵抗工具的力量,即使他考虑到电影——以及他自己的——局限性。(即将上映。)6. ‘Tár’ (Todd Field)6. 《塔尔》(Tár),导演:托德·菲尔德Of course there is no such person as Lydia Tár, the problematic maestro of the Berlin Philharmonic. But also, thanks to Cate Blanchett’s galvanic performance and Todd Field’s ruthlessly precise direction, there is. (In theaters.)当然,柏林爱乐乐团的莉迪亚·塔尔并不真的存在。但,多亏了凯特·布兰切特的戏剧性演出以及托德·菲尔德无情般的精确导演,这位充满争议的大师在银幕中获得了真实的生命。(上映中。)凯特·布兰切特在《塔尔》中扮演一名指挥。7. ‘Lost Illusions’ (Xavier Giannoli)7. 《幻灭》(Lost Illusions),导演:泽维尔·吉亚诺利A breathless tour of the sleazy, seductive modern media system, in which reputations and loyalties are bought and sold, hype trumps truth and gossip makes the world go round. It’s early 19th-century Paris, but the period atmosphere only makes the present-day relevance more piquant. Benjamin Voisin plays Lucien, a Newbie trader poet from the provinces who is all too happy to savor the corruptions of the capital. (Streaming on Mubi.)这是一次在既龌龊又诱人的现代媒体系统之中的扣人心弦之旅:名誉和忠诚的买卖稀松平常,宣传压倒真相,而流言蜚语则运转着这个世界。虽然背景为19世纪早期的巴黎,但这个时代的氛围使其与当代相关性显得更为辛辣。本杰明·瓦赞饰演卢锡安,一名来自外省的年轻诗人,乐于品尝法国首都的各类腐败。(在Mubi上观看。)8. ‘Flux Gourmet’ (Peter Strickland)8. 《变通美食家》(Flux Gourmet),导演:彼得·斯崔克兰德)A perverse, hilarious essay on the nature of art in the form of a fantastical tale about food, passion, flatulence and funny hats. (For rent on most major platforms.)一篇异常又搞笑的关于艺术本质的论文,以奇幻的形式呈现,讲述了食物、激情、浮夸以及滑稽帽子的故事。(可在大部分主要平台上租看。)9. ‘All the Beauty and the Bloodshed’ (Laura Poitras)9. 《美人与流血事件》(All the Beauty and the Bloodshed),导演:劳拉·珀特拉斯This documentary is a collaboration between two relentlessly honest artists: Poitras and the photographer Nan Goldin, whose candor about her own life is inspiring and sometimes terrifying. Goldin’s work and activism during the Corporate debt and opioid epidemics are the focus, but if this is a biographical documentary it’s also one that, like Goldin’s pictures, redraws the boundary between life and art. (In theaters.)这部纪录片是两位近乎顽固的诚实艺术家之间的合作:柏翠丝与摄影师南·戈丁。后者对自己生活的坦率既有激励作用也有时令人害怕。戈丁在艾滋病和阿片类毒品流行期间的作品以及激进主义是作品的焦点,然而如果这是一个传记性的纪录片,那就如戈丁的其他照片一样,也重新划定了生活与艺术之间的界限。(上映中。)10. ‘Down With the King’ (Diego Ongaro)10. 《击垮国王》(Down With the King),导演:迭戈·翁加罗While not explicitly a pandemic movie, this quiet character study has many of the hallmarks of Covid cinema: a small cast; outdoor locations; uncomplicated scenes and a minimalist approach to plot. A hip-hop star, played by the real-life rapper Freddie Gibbs, has gone into the woods, like Henry David Thoreau, to live deliberately. His malaise, beautifully conveyed in Gibbs’s subtle, unaffected performance, is specific to his own professional and personal circumstance, but also captures what a lot of us have felt in the past few years. It’s easy to feel we must reset the terms and conditions of our lives, but very hard to figure out how. (For rent on most major platforms.)虽然这不是一部明确的大流行电影,但其安静的角色研究有着新冠时代电影的许多特征:小阵容;外景;不复杂的场景以及极简主义情节。说唱歌手弗雷迪·吉布斯扮演的嘻哈明星像亨利·大卫·梭罗一样走进树林,去谨慎地生活。他的不安被吉布斯的微妙又朴实的演出美妙地传达给了观众。这种不安有他自身职业以及个人处境的具体性,但也反映了我们很多人在过去几年中的感受。我们很容易感到我们生命中的许多细则与契约需要重启,但具体应该怎样去做却非常困难。(可在大部分主要平台上租赁。)And 20 more …还有以下20个……“A Chiara” (Jonas Carpignano); “All That Breathes” (Shaunak Sen); “Armageddon Time” (James Gray); “Corsage” (Marie Kreutzer); “Descendant” (Margaret Brown); “Donbas” (Sergei Loznitsa); “Dos Estaciones” (Juan Pablo González); “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (Daniels); “The Fabelmans” (Steven Spielberg); “Fire on the Mountains” (Ajitpal Singh); “Futura” (Pietro Marcello, Francesco Munzi and Alice Rohrwacher); “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” (Rian Johnson); “Happening” (Audrey Diwan); “The Inspection” (Elegance Bratton); “Lingui, the Sacred Bonds” (Mahamat-Saleh Haroun); “Marx Can Wait” (Marco Bellocchio); “Pleasure” (Ninja Thyberg); “The Woman King” (Gina Prince-Bythewood); “Women Talking” (Sarah Polley); “X” (Ti West).《为了琪亚拉》(A Chiara),导演:乔纳斯·卡皮纳诺;《生生相息》(All That Breathes),导演:肖纳克·申;《世界末日》(Armageddon Time),导演:詹姆斯·格雷;《束胸》(Corsage),导演:玛丽·克鲁泽;《非洲城的后裔》(Descendant),导演:玛格丽特·布朗;《顿巴斯》(Donbas),导演:谢尔盖·洛兹尼察;《两季》(Dos Estaciones),导演:约翰·保罗·冈萨雷斯;《瞬息全宇宙》(Everything Everywhere All at Once),导演:关家永、丹尼尔·施纳特;《造梦之家》(The Fabelmans),导演:史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格;《大山里的星火》(Fire on the Mountains),导演:阿吉帕尔·辛格;《未来》(Futura),导演:皮耶特罗·马切罗、弗兰西斯科·穆尼兹和阿莉切·罗尔瓦赫尔;《利刃出鞘2》(Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery),导演:莱恩·约翰逊;《正发生》(Happening),导演:奥黛丽·迪万;《检阅日》(The Inspection),导演:艾利根斯·布拉顿;《纽带》(Lingui, the Sacred Bonds),导演:马哈曼特-萨雷·哈隆;《马克思可以等待》(Marx Can Wait),导演:马可·贝洛基奥;《欢愉》(Pleasure),导演:尼基娅·泰伯格;《达荷美女战士》(The Woman King),导演:吉娜·普林斯-拜斯伍德;《女人们的谈话》(Women Talking),导演:萨拉·波莉;《X》,导演:缇·威斯特。本文最初发表于2022年12月6日。Manohla Dargis自2004年起担任时报联合首席影评人。她自1987年于纽约大学修读电影研究硕士学位期间即开始专业从事电影方面的写作,其作品已被收录在几本书中。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注她。A.O. Scott是联合首席电影评论家。他于2000年加入《纽约时报》,并为《纽约时报书评》和《纽约时报杂志》撰稿。他还是《评论,让生活更美好》一书的作者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他:@aoscott。翻译:杜然、Harry Wong、明斋点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 《纽约时报》2022年度最佳电影


ANA SWANSON2022年12月16日拜登政府要求数十家中国公司与美国政府合作,以核实产品未被用于可能对美国构成安全风险的活动。 Oliver Contreras for The New York TimesWASHINGTON — The Biden administration on Thursday stepped up its efforts to impede China’s development of advanced semiconductors, restricting another 36 companies and organizations from getting access to American technology.华盛顿——周四,拜登政府加大了阻止中国发展先进半导体的力度,又有36家公司和机构被限制获得美国技术。The action, announced by the Commerce Department, is the latest step in the administration’s campaign to clamp down on China’s access to technologies that could be used for military purposes and underscored how limiting the flow of technology to global rivals has become a prominent element of United States foreign policy.商务部宣布的行动是政府打击中国获取可用于军事目的技术的最新举措,突显出限制技术流向全球竞争对手已成为美国外交政策的一个重要构成。Administration officials say that China has increasingly blurred the lines between its military and civilian industries, prompting the United States to place restrictions on doing business with Chinese companies that may feed into Beijing’s military ambitions at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, especially over Taiwan.政府官员表示,中国越来越模糊其军工和民用工业之间的界限,这促使美国在地缘政治紧张局势加剧之际,尤其是在台湾问题上对可能助长北京军事野心的中国企业做生意进行限制。In October, the administration announced sweeping limits on semiconductor exports to China, both from companies within the United States and in other countries that use American technology to make those products. It has also placed strict limits on technology exports to Russia in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.10月,美国政府宣布全面限制对中国的半导体出口,包括来自美国境内的公司和其他国家使用美国技术生产这些产品的公司。作为对莫斯科入侵乌克兰的回应,美国政府还严格限制向俄罗斯出口技术。“Today we are building on the actions we took in October to protect U.S. national security by severely restricting the PRC’s ability to leverage artificial intelligence, advanced computing, and other powerful, commercially available technologies for military modernization and human rights abuses,” Alan Estevez, the under secretary of commerce for industry and security, said in a statement, referring to the People’s Republic of China.负责工业和安全事务的商务部副部长艾伦·埃斯特韦斯在声明中说:“今天,我们在10月采取的行动基础上严格限制中华人民共和国利用人工智能、先进计算和其他强大的商用技术进行军事现代化和侵犯人权的能力,以保护美国国家安全。”Among the most notable companies added to the list is Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation, a company that was said to be in talks with Apple to potentially supply components for the iPhone 14.被列入名单的一家知名企业是长江存储科技公司,据说该公司正在与苹果公司商谈,可能为iPhone 14供应零部件。Congress has been preparing legislation that would prevent the U.S. government from purchasing or using semiconductors made by Y.M.T.C. and two other Chinese chip makers, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and ChangXin Memory Technologies, because of their reported links to Chinese state security and intelligence organizations.国会一直在准备立法,阻止美国政府购买或使用长江存储和另外两家公司生产的半导体。这两家中国芯片制造商分别是中芯国际和长鑫存储技术有限公司,据报道它们与中国的国家安全和情报机构存在联系。The U.S. government added the companies to a so-called entity list that will severely restrict their access to certain products, software and technologies. The targeted companies are producers and sellers of technologies that could pose a significant security risk to the United States, like advanced chips that are used to power artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons, and components for Iranian drones and ballistic missiles, the Commerce Department said.美国政府已在所谓的实体清单中添加这些公司,该清单将严格限制它们获得某些产品、软件和技术。商务部表示,这些被针对的公司是那些可能对美国构成重大安全风险的技术的生产商和销售商,例如为人工智能和高超音速武器提供动力的先进芯片,以及伊朗无人机和弹道导弹的组件。In an emailed statement, Liu Pengyu, the spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said that the United States “has been stretching the concept of national security, abusing export control measures, engaging in discriminatory and unfair treatment against enterprises of other countries, and politicizing and weaponizing economic and sci-tech issues. This is blatant economic coercion and bullying in the field of technology.”中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇在一封电子邮件声明中表示,美国“一直过度使用国家安全概念,滥用出口管制措施,对他国企业进行歧视和不公平对待,将经济和科技问题政治化和武器化。这是赤裸裸的经济胁迫和技术领域的霸凌”。“China will resolutely safeguard the lawful rights and interests of Chinese companies and institutions,” he added.他还说:“中方将坚决维护中国企业和机构的合法权益。”On Monday, China filed a formal challenge to the Biden administration’s chip controls at the World Trade Organization, criticizing the restrictions as a form of “trade protectionism.”周一,中国在世界贸易组织对拜登政府的芯片控制提出了正式挑战,批评这些限制实为“贸易保护主义”。The administration said that some companies, including Y.M.T.C. and its Japanese subsidiary, were added to the list because they posed a significant risk of transferring sensitive items to other companies sanctioned by the U.S. government, including Huawei Technologies and Hikvision.美国政府表示,包括长江存储及其日本子公司在内的一些公司被列入名单,是因为它们存在将敏感物品转移到其他受美国政府制裁的公司的重大风险,包括华为技术和海康威视。The Commerce Department said that another entity, Tianjin Tiandi Weiye Technologies, was added for its role in aiding China’s campaign of repression and surveillance of Uyghurs and other Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang region of China, as well as providing U.S. products to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. U.S.-based firms will now be forbidden from shipping products to these companies without first obtaining a special license.商务部表示,另一个实体天津天地伟业科技有限公司被列入黑名单,是因为该公司在协助中国镇压和监视新疆地区的维吾尔族和其他穆斯林少数民族,以及向伊斯兰革命卫队提供美国产品方面发挥了作用。现在,美国公司在未经事先获得特别许可的情况下将被禁止向这些公司运送产品。Twenty-three of the entities — in particular, those supplying advanced chips used for artificial intelligence with close ties to the Chinese military and defense industry, and two Chinese companies that were found to be supporting the Russian military — were hit with even tougher restrictions.其中23家实体——特别是与中国军方及国防工业密切相关的人工智能先进芯片供应商,以及被发现支持俄罗斯军方的两家中国企业——都受到了更严格的限制。The companies will be subject to what is known as the foreign direct product rule, which will cut them off from buying products made anywhere in the world with the use of American technology or software, which would encompass most global technology companies.这些企业将受所谓的外国直接产品规则约束,一切带有美国技术或软件的产品的全球购买渠道均被切断,而这将涵盖大多数全球性科技企业。The administration also said it would lift restrictions on some companies that had successfully undergone U.S. government checks that ensured their products weren’t being used for purposes that the government deemed harmful to national security.拜登政府还表示将取消对一些企业的限制,这些企业通过了美国政府审查,确保其产品不会用于政府认定的危害国家安全的目的。As part of the restrictions unveiled in October, the Biden administration placed dozens of Chinese firms on a watch list that required them to work with the U.S. government to verify that their products were not being used for activities that would pose a security risk to the United States.作为在10月公布的限制措施的一部分,拜登政府将数十家中国企业列入观察名单,要求它们与美国政府合作,验证其产品未被用于对美构成安全风险的行为。A total of 25 entities completed those checks, in cooperation with the Chinese government, and thus have been removed from the list. Nine Russian parties that were unable to clear those checks were added to the entity list, the department said.在中国政府的配合下,共有25家实体完成了审查,因此已从名单中移除。商务部表示,九家未能通过审查的与俄罗斯相关方均被列入实体名单。A spokesperson for the Commerce Department said that the actions demonstrated that the United States would defend its national security but also stood ready to work in cooperation with companies and host governments to ensure compliance with U.S. export controls.商务部发言人表示,这些行动表明了美国捍卫国家安全的决心,但美国也随时准备与企业和东道国政府合作,确保美国出口管制规定得到执行。In a separate announcement Thursday morning, a government board that oversees the audits of companies listed on stock exchanges to protect the interests of investors said that it had gained complete access for the first time in its history to inspect accounting firms headquartered in mainland China and Hong Kong.在周四上午发布的另一份声明中,一个为保护投资者利益而负责监管上市企业审计的政府委员会表示,自它成立以来首次获得了对总部位于中国大陆及香港的会计师事务所进行全面审查的权限。The agency, called the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, said this was just an initial step in ensuring that Chinese companies are safe for U.S. investors. But the development marked a step toward a potential resolution of a yearslong standoff between the United States and China over financial checks into public companies. It also appeared to decrease the likelihood that major Chinese companies will be automatically delisted from U.S. exchanges in the years to come.这个上市公司会计监督委员会宣称,这只是确保中国企业对美国投资者安全的第一步。但该进展标志着美中两国针对上市企业财务审查问题上长达数年的僵局朝着可能解决的方向迈出了一步。这似乎也降低了大型中国企业未来几年从美国交易所自动退市的可能性。Congress passed a law in 2020 that would have required Chinese companies to delist from U.S. stock exchanges if U.S. regulators were not able to inspect their audit reports for three consecutive years.国会于2020年通过了一项法律,规定若是美国监管机构连续三年无法检查审计报告,中国企业就必须从美国证券交易所退市。Erica Y. Williams, the chair of the board, said the announcement should not be misconstrued as a “clean bill of health” for firms in China. Her staff had identified numerous potential deficiencies with the firms they inspected, she said, though that was not an unexpected outcome in a jurisdiction being examined for the first time.委员会主席埃丽卡·威廉姆斯表示,这一声明不应被误解为给中国企业的“健康证”。她说,工作人员在审查企业时发现了许多潜在不足,尽管这对于一个首次接受审查的司法管辖领域来说并不是意外的结果。“I want to be clear: this is the beginning of our work to inspect and investigate firms in China, not the end,” Ms. Williams said.“我想明确一点:这是我们对中国企业检查和调查的开始,而不是结束,”威廉姆斯说。Ana Swanson是时报驻华盛顿记者,负责报道贸易和国际经济新闻。她此前在《华盛顿邮报》工作,报道贸易、美联储和经济新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@AnaSwanson。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 美国再将中国36家公司列入贸易黑名单


STEPHEN CASTLE2022年12月15日在10月的示威活动中,一名民主抗议者被拖入中国驻英国曼彻斯特领事馆。 Matthew Leung/The Chaser News, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLONDON — China withdrew six of its diplomats from Britain on Wednesday, ending a diplomatic standoff between London and Beijing over a violent clash that took place during a pro-democracy demonstration at the Chinese Consulate in the northern city of Manchester.伦敦——周三,中国从英国召回六名外交官,结束了伦敦和北京之间的外交僵局,这场僵局是因中国驻英国北部城市曼彻斯特领事馆门前举行民主示威期间发生暴力冲突导致的。The British authorities had asked six Chinese diplomats to waive their official immunity to allow police to investigate how a protester from Hong Kong was injured after being dragged onto the consulate grounds and beaten on Oct. 16.10月16日,一名香港抗议者被拖进领事馆的地盘并遭到殴打而受伤,英国当局要求六名中国外交官放弃官方豁免权,以便警方展开调查。Instead, China decided to repatriate the six officials, including one of its senior diplomats, the consul general, Zheng Xiyuan. He has denied that he beat a protester, though not involvement in the incident. The Chinese Embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the incident.然而,中国决定召回这六名官员,其中包括一名高级外交官、总领事郑曦原。他否认自己殴打了抗议者,但没有否认参与该事件。中国大使馆没有立即回应置评请求。The episode underscored the growing tension between the two nations as the British government hardens its policy toward Beijing, while still trying to engage with the Chinese government. Against the backdrop of China’s crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, Britain had offered visas to tens of thousands of residents of its former colony, a move that angered the authorities in Beijing.随着英国政府对北京变得强硬,同时仍努力与中国政府接触,这一事件凸显了两国之间日益紧张的关系。在中国镇压香港民主抗议者的背景下,英国向其前殖民地的数万名居民提供了签证,此举激怒了北京当局。In a speech last month, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain said that the “golden era” in relations with China was at an end, identifying the country as a “systemic challenge to our values and interests.”在上个月的一次演讲中,英国首相里希·苏纳克表示,与中国关系的“黄金时代”已经结束,并将中国认定为“对我们的价值观和利益的系统性挑战”。He stopped short, however, of describing China as a threat and said that Western nations should work with Beijing on shared challenges such as climate change and the health of the global economy.然而,他没有将中国描述为威胁,而是说西方国家应该与北京合作应对气候变化和全球经济健康等共同挑战。The diplomatic moves on Wednesday seemed in line with that carefully calibrated policy, resolving the incident in Manchester without formally expelling the Chinese diplomats from Britain. Such a step might have provoked a response from China and increased tensions.周三的外交行动似乎符合这一经过精心调整的政策,曼彻斯特事件在没有正式将中国外交官驱逐出境的情况下得到了解决。驱逐举动可能会激起中国的回应,并加剧紧张局势。Speaking in London, the foreign secretary, James Cleverly, said that a deadline for action set by Britain over the case had expired on Wednesday.英国外交大臣詹姆斯·克莱弗利在伦敦发表讲话说,英国就此案设定的行动期限已于周三到期。“In response to our request, the Chinese government have now removed from the U.K. those officials including the consul general himself,” Mr. Cleverly said. “This demonstrates that our adherence to the rule of law, the seriousness with which we take these incidents, has had an effect and we will continue on the world stage and domestically to abide by the rule of law and expect others to do likewise.”“应我们的要求,中国政府现已从英国召回那些官员,包括总领事本人,”克莱弗利说。“这表明我们对法治的坚持,我们对这些事件的严肃态度,已经产生了影响,我们将继续在世界舞台和国内遵守法治,并期望其他国家也这样做。”Mr. Cleverly added that it was “right that the Chinese government have now removed these officials from the U.K.”克莱弗利补充说,“中国政府现在将这些官员从英国召回是正确的。”After the clash in Manchester, Bob Chan, the pro-democracy protester at the center of the dispute, told British media that, while demonstrating outside the consulate, he was dragged inside its grounds and attacked.在曼彻斯特的冲突发生后,处于冲突中心的民主抗议者鲍勃·陈告诉英国媒体,他在领事馆外示威时被拖到领事馆内并遭到袭击。“I held on to the gate, where I was kicked and punched. I could not hold on for long and was eventually pulled into the grounds of the consul. It was then my hair was pulled, and I felt punches and kicks from several men,” Mr. Chan told a news conference, adding that the assault only stopped when a man who turned out to be a uniformed officer from the Greater Manchester Police pulled him outside the gate.陈先生在新闻发布会上说,“我抓住大门时被拳脚相向。我没能抓住多久,最终被拉进了领事馆。这时,我的头发被拉扯,觉得有几个人对我拳打脚踢。”他还说,直到一名男子将我拉出大门,袭击才停止,原来那是大曼彻斯特警察局的一名穿制服的警官。“I never thought that something like this could happen in the U.K.,” he added.他还说:“我从没想过在英国会发生这样的事情。”Speaking to Sky News, Mr. Zheng denied beating anybody but, when asked if he pulled Mr. Chan into the consulate by his hair, he accused the protester of abusing his country and leader, adding: “I think it’s my duty.”在接受天空新闻采访时,郑曦原否认打人,但当被问及他是否抓住陈先生的头发将其拉进领事馆时,他指责抗议者辱骂他的国家和领导人,并补充说:“我认为这是我的责任。”In a statement issued on Wednesday by the Inter Parliamentary Alliance on China, an international group of legislators, Mr. Chan said that “while it may have taken two months for this to happen, I believe this is one way of solving this complicated diplomatic problem.”在国际立法者团体“对华政策跨国议会联盟”在周三发表的一份声明中,陈先生说:“虽然花了两个月的时间才走到这一步,但我相信这是解决这一复杂外交问题的一个方式。”“I relocated to this country with my family to live freely. What happened on 16 October 2022 was unacceptable and illegal, and the withdrawal of these Chinese diplomats gives me a sense of closure,” he added.他还说:“我和家人搬到了这个国家是为了自由地生活。2022年10月16日发生的事情是不可接受的,也是非法的,这些中国外交官的召回让我感觉事件已经结束了。”But the departures were not enough to satisfy some of the most vocal critics of China in Britain’s Parliament, including Iain Duncan Smith, a senior Conservative Party lawmaker. He is one of a number of members of the British Parliament who has been sanctioned by China for spreading what it said were “lies and disinformation” about human rights abuses against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang.但对于英国议会中一些对中国最直言不讳的批评者,这些外交官的召回还不足以让他们感到满意,其中包括保守党资深议员伊恩·邓肯·史密斯。他是受到中国制裁的多名英国议会成员之一,中国称他们散布所谓侵犯新疆少数民族人权的“谎言和虚假信息”。“The flagrant assault on a peaceful democracy campaigner in Manchester needs more than allowing those responsible to leave the U.K. uncharged and with their heads held high,” Mr. Duncan Smith said in a statement. “Letting China take them back isn’t justice. We should have kicked them out weeks ago.”“曼彻斯特一位和平的民主活动人士公然遭受攻击,负有责任的人没有受到指控还昂着头离开英国,这样的处理是不够的,”邓肯·史密斯在一份声明中说。“让中国将他们召回是不公正的。我们应该在几周前就把他们赶出去。”Stephen Castle是时报驻伦敦记者,报道英国政治和与欧洲关系等相关议题。欢迎在Twitter@_StephenCastle和Facebook上关注他。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 香港抗议者遭殴打风波后,北京从英国召回六名外交官

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