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Posted by: SuHaiJack
« on: February 01, 2023, 06:00:52 PM »

人口下降不是问题,多生孩子也并非解决之道

WANG FENG2023年1月31日The shoe has dropped. The big one. China, the most populous country on the planet for centuries, this month reported its first population decline in six decades, a trend that is almost certainly irreversible. By the end of the century China may have only around half of the 1.41 billion people it has now, according to U.N. projections, and may already have been overtaken by India.那只靴子已经落地。而且是很大的一只。几个世纪以来人口一直居世界首位的中国本月公布了60年来的首次人口下降,这个趋势几乎可以肯定是不可逆转的。据联合国预测,到本世纪末,中国人口也许只是现有的14.1亿的一半左右,而且印度的人口目前可能已经超过了中国。The news has been met with gloom and doom, often framed as the start of China’s inexorable decline and, more broadly, the harbinger of a demographic and economic “time bomb” that will strain the world’s capacity to support aging populations.人们对这条消息的反应是悲观失望,通常认为这是中国无法改变的衰落的开始,而且更广泛地说,这是一个人口和经济“定时炸弹”的预兆,必将使世界赡养日益老龄化人口的能力达到极限。There is no doubt that a shrinking global population — a trend expected to set in by the end of this century — poses unprecedented challenges for humanity. China is only the latest and largest major country to join a club that already includes Japan, South Korea, Russia, Italy and others. Germany would likely be in decline too if not for immigration, and many others could begin shrinking in the years ahead. (The United States is expected to grow moderately in coming decades, largely because of immigration.) Median U.N. projections point to global population peaking in the mid-2080s at more than 10 billion, but if fertility rates continue to drop the decline could begin decades earlier.毫无疑问,全球人口减少——预计这个趋势将在本世纪末出现——给人类带来了前所未有的挑战。中国只是最新加入人口下降国家行列的最大国家,日本、韩国、俄罗斯、意大利和其他国家已经在这个行列中。如果没有外来移民的话,德国人口可能已在下降,而且,更多国家的人口可能会在未来几年开始萎缩。(美国人口预计将在未来几十年适度增长,主要是因为外来移民。)联合国各种预测的中值指出,全球人口将在本世纪80年代中期达到逾100亿的峰值,但如果生育率继续下降的话,全球人口开始减少的时间可能会提前几十年。But the alarmist warnings are often simplistic and premature. The glass is at least half full. Shrinking populations are usually part of a natural, inevitable process, and rather than focus excessively on concerns like labor shortages and pension support, we need to look at the brighter spots for our world.但危言耸听的警告往往过于简单且为时过早。杯子至少是半满的。人口减少通常是一个自然且不可避免过程的一部分,与其过分关注劳动力短缺和养老金缺口等问题,不如看看人口减少给世界带来的好处。There is no need for panic; we’ve made that mistake before.没必要恐慌;我们以前在人口问题上就犯过这种错误。In the second half of the 20th century the world was panicking about unstoppable population growth. The number of people on the planet more than tripled in seven decades, from 2.5 billion in 1950 to around 8 billion in 2022. Turns out, that was a transitory phase when mortality rates fell faster than fertility rates because of improved nutrition and public health, and relative peace.20世纪下半叶,世界曾被不可阻挡的人口增长吓得惊慌失措。地球上的人口在70年里增长了两倍多,从1950年的25亿增加到2022年的约80亿。事实证明,那是个暂时的阶段,由于营养和公共卫生的改善以及相对的和平,死亡率下降的速度超过了生育率下降的速度。But panic can lead to hasty policy and human tragedy. This reached its fullest form with China’s extreme birth-control campaigns launched in the late 1970s and which caused immense suffering, mostly for women, through forced abortions or fines and other penalties for breaking rules that restricted most couples to having only one child. Until those limits were scrapped beginning in 2015, hundreds of millions of Chinese women underwent sterilization procedures or had intrauterine devices inserted.但惊慌失策会导致草率政策和人间悲剧。中国在20世纪70年代末开始的极端计划生育运动,给以女性为主的群体造成的巨大痛苦,是这种悲剧的最充分体现。政府用强制堕胎或对违反计生规定者罚款的做法限制大多数夫妇只生一个孩子。政府在2015年开始取消“独生子女”政策之前,数亿中国女性接受了绝育手术或植入了避孕环。The population declines seen today in some countries have come about largely as a happy story of greater longevity and freedom. Fertility rates worldwide dropped from more than five births per woman in the early 1960s to 2.3 in 2020. Credit greater investment in child and maternal health everywhere: A mother who successfully brings her child to term, and an infant who survives to childhood, lowers birthrates because parents often don’t feel the need to try again. Greater availability of free or affordable contraception has also reduced unwanted births.在很大程度上,今天在一些国家看到的人口下降是长寿和自由的幸福故事。世界范围的生育率从上世纪60年代初的每名妇女平均生五个以上的孩子降到了2020年的2.3个。这归功于世界各地在母婴健康上的更多投入:母亲成功地足月分娩,婴儿活到了童年,使出生率降低,因为父母通常觉得没必要再生孩子。更多人用上了免费或负担得起的避孕措施,也减少了意外怀孕。China, South Korea and Japan are now all in population decline, but this is due in part to rapid increases in income, employment and education. The number of South Korean women who went on to postsecondary education rose from 6 percent in 1980 to more than 90 percent by 2020; China and Japan also have seen big gains. Lower birthrates stem in part from greater personal and reproductive freedom, such as the choice to stay unmarried, higher pay and more professional opportunities for women in these nations.中国、韩国和日本的人口现在都在下降,但这在一定程度上是由于收入、就业和教育机会的快速增长。接受过高等教育的韩国女性比例已从1980年的6%上升到了2020年的90%以上;女性接受高等教育的人数在中国和日本也大幅增长。低出生率的部分原因在于更大的个人自由和生育自由,例如,这些国家的女性可以选择不结婚,她们有更多的职业机会,能挣到更高的工资。More women in the work force is a recipe for even greater productivity and prosperity and could help ease labor concerns among falling populations. More women than ever are rising to leadership positions in business, media and politics.更多的女性进入劳动力市场是进一步提高生产力、让社会更加繁荣的秘诀,也有助于缓解人口下降带来的劳动力短缺问题。越来越多的女性正在商业、媒体和政治领域担任领导职务。Compared to a half-century ago, people in many countries are richer, healthier and better educated and women are more empowered. China’s population, for example, is shrinking and aging, but its people are more educated and have a longer life expectancy than at any time in the country’s history. Expanded educational opportunities guarantee a spot in a university for almost every person born today in China, including more women than men.与50年前相比,许多国家的人民都更富有、更健康,受教育程度更高,女性有更大的自主权。以中国为例,虽然它的人口正在减少、而且正在老龄化,但中国人民的受教育程度和预期寿命的增加也是史无前例的。接受高等教育机会的扩大,保证了今天生在中国的几乎每个人都能上大学,高等院校在校生中女性已多于男性。Average world life expectancy has increased from 51 years in 1960 to 73 in 2019, and even more so in China, from 51 in 1962 to 78 in 2019. Increases of that magnitude reshape lives and open up opportunities unimaginable when life spans were shorter, such as workers remaining productive later in life, and growing markets for elderly consumers in areas like tourism, nutritional supplements and medical devices, among others.世界平均预期寿命已从1960年的51岁增加到2019年的73岁。中国的情况尤为突出,预期寿命已从1962年的51岁增加到2019年的78岁。这种幅度的增加重塑了人们的生活,也带来了人们在寿命更短时难以想象的机会,例如工作者将生产力保持到晚年,以及老年消费者为旅游、营养补充剂和医疗设备行业提供的不断增长的市场。Fewer people on the planet, of course, may reduce humanity’s ecological footprint and competition for finite resources. There could even be greater peace as governments are forced to choose between spending on military equipment or on elderly pensions. And as rich nations come to rely more on immigrants from poorer countries, those migrants gain greater access to the global prosperity currently concentrated in the developed world.地球上的人口减少当然也可能减少人类的生态足迹以及对有限资源的竞争。当各国政府被迫做出选择,究竟是把钱花在军备上还是花在支付老年人养老金上时,甚至有可能给世界带来更多的和平。随着富裕国家越来越依赖来自较贫穷国家的移民,这些移民将有更多机会分享目前集中在发达国家的全球繁荣。This new demography brings new challenges, including the need to offer quality and affordable child care, make college education more affordable and equitable, provide guaranteed minimum income and make societies more gender equal. Governments should abandon the mindless pursuit of economic growth in favor of well-being for citizens.新的人口结构带来了新的挑战,包括有必要提供优质且负担得起的儿童照管服务,让更多的人支付得起大学学费,有更公平的接受高等教育的机会,提供最低收入保障,以及推动社会实现更大的性别平等。各国政府应该放弃盲目追求经济增长,把注意力集中到公民福祉上来。There is no reason that world population must keep growing or even remain level. And just as earlier panic led to harmful policies in China and elsewhere, efforts to raise fertility — which may prove futile — risk viewing women once again as birth machines.没有理由认为世界人口必须保持增长或至少保持平稳。正如中国和其他地方以前在人口问题上的恐慌导致了有害的政策一样,提高生育率的努力——它们可能被证明是徒劳的——有可能将女性再次视为生育机器。Global population will inevitably decline. Rather than trying to reverse that, we need to embrace it and adapt.全球人口将不可避免地下降。与其试图扭转它,我们需要接受并适应这个趋势。Wang Feng(@fwanguci)是加州大学欧文分校的社会学教授,与James Lee合著《One Quarter of Humanity: Malthusian Mythology and Chinese Realities, 1700-2000》一书。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 人口下降不是问题,多生孩子也并非解决之道

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