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Posted by: SuHaiJack
« on: January 23, 2023, 12:00:52 AM »

中国的衰落已毋庸置疑,然后呢?

BRET STEPHENS2023年1月19日 Thomas Peter/ReutersFor years, I’ve been writing columns predicting China’s decline. This week, the decline became undeniable. The road downhill will not be smooth — not for it or for us.多年来,我的专栏文章一直在预测中国的衰落。本周,衰落已是毋庸置疑。下坡路不会是平坦的——无论是对中国还是对我们。The news is that the death rate in China outnumbered the birthrate for the first time in more than 60 years. Last time, it was famine caused by Mao Zedong’s economic policies that led to an estimated 36 million deaths from starvation. Now, it’s Newbie trader Chinese couples who, like their peers in much of the developed world, don’t want children.消息称:中国的死亡率60多年来首次超过出生率。上次发生这样的情况是由于毛泽东的经济政策造成的饥荒,估计有3600万人死于饥饿。现在则是因为,中国的年轻夫妇和许多发达国家的同龄人一样,不想要孩子。So far, the demographic downshift has been small — 9.56 million births last year against 10.41 million deaths, according to Chinese government statistics. That’s out of a total population of 1.4 billion. The country will not be running out of people anytime soon.到目前为止,人口下降幅度很小——根据中国政府的统计数据,去年有956万人出生,而死亡人数为1041万人。总人口有14亿。这个国家的人口不会很快耗尽。But the longer trend lines look awful for Beijing. In 1978, when Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms got underway, China’s median age was 20.1 years. In 2021, it was 37.9, exceeding that of the United States. China’s fertility rate is 1.18. The replacement rate necessary to maintain a stable population is 2.1. As of 2018, there were an estimated 34 million more males in China than females — the result of a one-child policy that led couples to abort girls at a higher rate than boys. China’s working-age population has been shrinking for years; a government spokesman estimated that it will fall to 700 million by the middle of the century.但长期趋势对北京来说似乎很糟糕。1978年,邓小平启动经济改革时,中国的中位年龄为20.1岁。2021年为37.9,超过美国。中国的生育率为1.18。而维持人口稳定所需的替代率是2.1。截至2018年,估计中国男性比女性多3400万——这是独生子女政策的结果,该政策导致夫妇人工流掉女孩的比例高于男孩。中国的劳动适龄人口多年来一直在减少;一位政府发言人估计,到本世纪中叶,这一数字将降至7亿。If you think the world has too many people already, then all this might sound like good news. It’s not. China is increasingly likely to grow old before it gets rich, consigning hundreds of millions of Chinese to a penurious and often lonely old age. A declining population generally correlates with economic decline — roughly a one-percentage-point decline in economic growth for every percentage-point decline in population, according to Ruchir Sharma, a former head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley. And China, both as an export hub and as a vast market, has been a major driver of global economic growth for four decades. Its weakness will ripple through the world economy.如果你认为世界人口已太多,那么这一切听起来可能是个好消息。但并非如此。中国越来越有可能未富先老,使数亿中国人过上贫困且往往非常孤独的晚年。摩根士丹利前新兴市场负责人鲁奇尔·夏尔马表示,人口下降通常与经济衰退相关——人口每下降一个百分点,经济增长就会下降约一个百分点。而中国作为出口枢纽和巨大的市场,四十年来一直是全球经济增长的主要推动力。它的疲软将波及整个世界经济。But the scariest aspect of China’s decline is geopolitical. When democracies experience economic problems, they tend to become inward looking and risk averse. When dictatorships do, they often become externally focused and risk inclined. Regimes that can’t, or won’t, address domestic discontents through political and economic reforms often try to do so through foreign adventures.但中国衰落最可怕的影响是在地缘政治方面。当民主国家遇到经济问题时,它们往往会变得关注内部和规避风险。当独裁政权遇到经济问题时,它们往往会专注于外部并倾向冒险。不能或不会通过政治和经济改革解决国内不满的政权,通常会尝试通过海外冒险来解决问题。That’s a point worth thinking about now that Beijing is also reporting the slowest rate of economic growth in nearly four decades. The immediate cause here is Xi Jinping’s catastrophic mishandling of the Covid crisis — the punitive lockdowns, the rejection of foreign vaccines, the abrupt end of restrictions, the constant lying.何况北京还报告了近40年来最慢的经济增长率,这是一个值得思考的问题。经济增长缓慢的直接原因是习近平对新冠危机的灾难性处理不当——苛刻的封锁、拒绝外国疫苗、突然放开、持续撒谎。But China’s economy was already in trouble before the pandemic: a real estate bubble at the point of bursting, record high capital flight, the end of Hong Kong as a relatively free city and Chinese companies like Huawei increasingly unwelcome in Western countries on account of espionage and intellectual-property-theft concerns.但中国经济在大流行之前就已经陷入困境:房地产泡沫即将破灭,资本外逃创历史新高,香港不再是一个相对自由的城市,华为等中国公司因间谍活动和知识产权盗窃问题在西方国家越来越不受欢迎。A pragmatic government might have been able to tackle these challenges. But Mr. Xi has appointed a gang of yes men to the Politburo for his unprecedented third term as supreme leader. If — or as — economic conditions deteriorate, they are likelier to find answers to their problems in aggression rather than reform. Think of inflationary Argentina on the eve of the invasion of the Falklands or bankrupt Iraq just before the invasion of Kuwait.一个务实的政府或许能够应对这些挑战。但习近平史无前例地第三次担任最高领导人,任命了一批应声虫进入政治局。如果经济状况恶化——也可以说正在恶化,他们更有可能通过侵略而不是改革来解决问题。想一想在入侵福克兰群岛前夕通货膨胀的阿根廷,或者在入侵科威特之前破产的伊拉克。What should the United States do? Three things.美国该怎么办?三件事。First, deterrence. The better Kyiv does militarily against Moscow, the more deeply the lesson will be learned in Beijing that taking Taipei wouldn’t be as easy as it seems. The sooner Taiwan acquires large stores of easy-to-use, hard-to-target weapons such as Stinger and Javelin missiles, the more hesitant China’s military planners will be to step on a sea urchin. The more the United States does to help Japan, Australia and other allies strengthen their militaries, the greater the deterrent effect it will have on China’s regional ambitions.第一,威慑力。基辅在军事对抗莫斯科方面做得越好,北京就会越深刻地吸取教训——拿下台北并不像看起来那么容易。台湾越早获得大量易于使用、难以被锁定目标的武器,如毒刺导弹和标枪导弹,中国的军事规划人员就越不会轻易踩雷。美国越是帮助日本、澳大利亚等盟国加强军事力量,对中国的地区野心的威慑作用就越大。The administration is doing much of this already. It needs to do more of it, much faster.政府已经在这方面做了大量工作。它需要做得更多、更快。Second, trade détente. Trying to punish Beijing via Donald Trump’s tariffs aggravates the relationship while harming both sides economically. We should offer to roll them back in exchange for guarantees from China that it will end its hacking campaigns against U.S. institutions.二是贸易缓和。试图通过特朗普的关税来惩罚北京,这只会令双方关系更加紧张,同时在经济上损害双方。我们应该提出撤销这些关税,以换取中国保证会结束对美国机构的黑客攻击活动。If it cheats, the tariffs can be reimposed and doubled.如果中国弄虚作假,可以重新征收关税并加倍。Finally, human rights. At every opportunity, the State Department should speak up loudly for China’s dissidents. Jimmy Lai and Qin Yongmin, among others, should be as familiar to Americans as Andrei Sakharov and Natan Sharansky were in the 1970s. Their names should be raised at every bilateral meeting with Chinese officials not only out of concern for their lives but also as reminders that our fundamental differences with Beijing aren’t strategic. They’re moral.最后是人权。国务院应该抓住每一个机会,为中国的持不同政见者大声疾呼。黎智英和秦永民等名字,对于美国人来说,应该和1970年代的安德烈·萨哈罗夫和纳坦·夏兰斯基一样耳熟能详。在与中国官员的每次双边会谈中都应该提到他们的名字,这不仅是出于对他们生命安全的关注,也是为了提醒我们,我们与北京的根本分歧不是战略性的。而是道义上的。In the long run, the greatest hope we can have for China is its people. The greatest investment we can make in the coming decades of turbulence is to keep faith with them.从长远来看,我们对中国最大的希望是其人民。在未来几十年的动荡中,我们能做的最大投资就是对他们保持信心。Bret Stephens自2017年4月起担任《纽约时报》观点与评论版面的专栏作家。他于2013年在《华尔街日报》工作时获普利策评论奖,此前还曾担任《耶路撒冷邮报》主编。欢迎在Facebook上关注他。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 中国的衰落已毋庸置疑,然后呢?

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