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Recent Posts

91
General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen
« Last post by FXOpen Trader on April 09, 2024, 10:34:58 AM »
Rate Cut Rhetoric Blunts US Stock Market Performance


Analysts' speculation regarding the central bank policy within the United States has been very much based on sentiment over the past few months.

A few months ago, a quick glance at the mainstream financial headlines would have been enough to ensure a clear view that 2024 would be a year of reducing interest rates, and commentators and analysts had even made predictions regarding actual times during the year at which rate cuts would take place.

These predictions were scuppered in February when minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting at the end of January stated that the Federal Reserve Bank would not be reducing interest rates in the early part of this year and was sticking firmly to its conservative policy of working toward a sustainable 2% inflation rate.

That dialogue has resurfaced this morning, this time as a result of the Federal Reserve having maintained its forecast for lowering interest rates three times this year despite not having done so in the first quarter as was expected by so many pundits, but this time, the talk is more focused on whether these will actually go ahead at all.

In Minneapolis, Minnesota, the state Federal Reserve president Neel Kashari commented that the central bank might look to keep interest rates at their current level for the remainder of the year if inflation progress stalls, an interesting remark at the beginning of earnings season for many large publicly listed North American companies.

Some asset managers have written to their clients and advised that they hold the view that the Federal Reserve will not reduce interest rates this year. What will actually happen is still very much open to speculation until any decision is announced by the central bank.

On this point, stock markets across the United States remained flat as US equities concluded yesterday's New York trading session nearly flat, as investors embarked on a significant week poised to include the latest inflation figures, which could influence expectations for interest rate cuts, and the commencement of the earnings season for the first quarter.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
92
General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen
« Last post by FXOpen Trader on April 09, 2024, 09:11:49 AM »
The Market Is Waiting for Inflation Values in the US


Tomorrow one of the most significant events of the week will take place, which can greatly affect the sentiment of participants in both the currency and stock markets - at 15:30 GMT+3 inflation data will be published, namely: the values of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Core indices CPI.

According to ForexFactory, analysts expect the following values:
→ Core consumer price index, excluding food and energy prices, (Core CPI) in monthly terms: forecast = 0.3%, previous value = 0.4%
→ Consumer Price Index (CPI) in monthly terms – similar: forecast = 0.3%, previous value = 0.4%.
→ CPI in annual terms: forecast = 3.4%, previous value = 3.2%.

The Fed's inflation target is 2%. The values that will be published tomorrow may greatly affect market participants' expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy.

According to the CME FedWatch tool:
→ traders are confident that the Fed will leave the rate unchanged in May;
→ the probability that the Fed will cut rates in June is just over 50%. But if the CPI indicates that inflation is stable, the likelihood will likely decrease.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said last week that a Fed rate cut was not a possible scenario if inflation continued to move sideways. George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars, told CNBC, "I wouldn't be surprised if we see smaller rate cuts by the end of the year."



TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
93
山在那里,每一天都不一样——携富士 GFX 探索风光摄影新境界

2024-03-15
      《羊卓雍错湖边》罗斐 摄 FUJIFILM GFX 100Sf/11,1/125 秒,ISO100
2015 年的一天,我突然意识到,在当时的生活中,没有一件事是完全意义上只为自己做的。于是,顺着回忆的线索,我重新找回大学时期的爱好——摄影。在尝试了很多题材后发现,还是只能在旷野中才能找到自己,所以我一头扎进风光摄影中,特别是对自然风光的追寻。
随着拍摄和学习越来越深入,我对于作品影像的品质要求也越来越高。于是,我把目光投向了中画幅相机。一开始吸引我的是富士中画幅的高像素——更大的底,以及更高的像素对于风光摄影来说是绝对的优势。富士 GFX 中画幅相机的极致表现力让照片再现了自然界的大美天地。我从 2019 年开始使用富士 GFX 系列至今,发现它的高宽容度和 16bit 的色彩深度能够带来更加丰富细腻的质感细节,更加真实的记录与还原了眼前的画面,让我在图片处理上非常得心应手。
《丁青县》罗斐 摄 FUJIFILM GFX 100Sf/11,1/125 秒,ISO200
Tips:「GFX」搭载了相比 35mm 全画幅传感器面积大 1.7 倍的中画幅传感器,再加上释放其性能的 FUJINON GF 镜头,和富士胶片优异的图像及色彩再现技术,实现了专业摄影师追求的高分辨率与丰富的色调表现。
2022 年 10 月 开 始, 我带着富士 GFX 100S,开始了我的摄影探寻之旅。从深圳出发,穿越广东、广西、云南、贵州、四川、西藏、新疆、青海、甘肃等地,行程 25000 公里,历时十个月,我带着我的 GFX 100S 去看、去记录、去感受。我深深地被它所展现的画质和色彩所震撼。它不仅仅是一台相机,更是记录生活的工具,发现美的眼睛,表达内心的平台和旅途中最靠谱的伙伴。
《贵州黎平夜景》罗斐 摄 FUJIFILM GFX 100Sf/11,0.8 秒,ISO400
Tips:「GFX」的 1 亿像素传感器支持 16bit 色深,在后期调色或者大范围调整明暗度时不容易出现颜色或亮度断层,给人最直观的感受就是色调和明暗的过渡都更平滑。
在这趟旅行中,我带着个人常用的 GF20-35Daytrading in most busy financial situation 4 R WR、GF23Daytrading in most busy financial situation 4 R LM WR、GF50Daytrading in most busy financial situation 3.5 R LM WR、GF110Daytrading in most busy financial situation 2 R LM WR,以及 GF100-200Daytrading in most busy financial situation 5.6 R LM OIS WR 镜头。我不太介意使用什么焦段的镜头拍摄,不同的焦段会采取不同的构图,会有不同的镜头语言,得到不一样的画面。
如果找到比较好的前景,我会用广角进行拍摄;如果遇到一些大场景,更多时候我则会使用长焦镜头。当我到达一个拍摄场景后,首先确定需要拍摄的内容,然后根据主题来判断光线的方向,以及对整个环境、地形进行初步了解。当然,其实景色和光线都是客观条件,最重要的还是个人的拍摄想法,而构图或者拍摄技巧则是摄影师为了实现主观构想而选择的一个表现方法。
《吉隆乃村》罗斐 摄 FUJIFILM GFX 100Sf/11,10 秒,ISO100
Tips:「GFX」高像素相机同样也能带来优秀的高感表现,暗光环境下,我们能够放心地使用 3200 甚至更高 ISO 进行拍摄。
近年来,中国摄影蓬勃发展,现在我们已经很难找到一个无人拍摄之地了。因此,我要求自己尽量不去看网上的图片,最大程度防止自己的拍摄固化。每个人对风景的描述都是不一样的,有的人写说明文,而有的人写散文诗。我们总不会踏进完全相同的河流,当你通过相机用心去描述这个世界时,风景都是不一样的。
风光摄影的拍摄条件很多时候不允许我们选择舒适的拍摄环境。当遇到高温、严寒或者刮风下雨等恶劣天气,客观拍摄环境对相机提出了极高的耐受性要求。经过几场拍摄,富士 GFX 相机在这些方面的确经受得住严苛的考验。
《萨普》罗斐 摄 FUJIFILM GFX 50Rf/16,1/400 秒,ISO100
Tips:「GFX」的机身外壳由镁合金构成,硬度和韧性并存,镜头卡口边缘 1mm 内采用了更高的合金密度,提供额外的支撑力,让它具备强大的防尘防潮性能,在低至零下 10 摄氏度的环境中完成拍摄。
记忆犹新的一次拍摄,我徒步冈仁波齐转山,最高处到达海拔 5700 米。我毫不犹豫选择携带富士 GFX 100S 搭配 GF50Daytrading in most busy financial situation 3.5 R LM WR 标准镜头。事实证明,GFX 100S 不但能应对路上所有的拍摄需要,还帮我产出拍摄了大量 4K 视频。GFX 100S 在保证了照片和视频画质的同时还为整个旅途减负,做到了轻量化出行,这绝对是风光摄影师最需要的。
《玉隆拉措》罗斐 摄 FUJIFILM GFX 100Sf/11,1/160 秒,ISO250,+0.3EV
在我的旅行拍摄中,很多拍摄场景光线都非常苛刻。在一次去新疆莎车县的老茶馆拍摄,当时茶馆内的环境照明只能依靠门口的一点点阳光以及炉膛里的微弱火光。拍摄时,我果断将 ISO 开到了 10000,出于保证景深的需求,我也并没有选择大光圈拍摄。这个时候富士 GFX 100S 的机身防抖功能对于手持拍摄非常有帮助,同时它的翻转屏设计也人性化地解决了很多低机位拍摄时构图和对焦问题。最后的成片经受住了高感光度的拍摄挑战,我收获了完美的作品。
《喀什》罗斐 摄 FUJIFILM GFX 50Rf/5.6,1/90 秒,ISO1250,-0.3EV
Tips:“忠实的色彩再现,硬色调适合各种场景”。富士胶片模拟配方为拍摄带来更多可能性。
在拍摄过程中,常常会因为一些拍摄机位不理想或者稍纵即逝的场景需要对照片进行二次构图处理。有赖于富士 GFX 的高像素,可以化腐朽为神奇,分分钟拯救废片。有一次去西藏萨普神山拍摄,当发现想拍下来的瞬间时,我迅速抓拍了一张,却发现镜头焦段太广。当我正准备换镜头再次拍摄时,面前的神山就被云挡住了,等了一天也无缘得见。还好当时使用的相机是富士 GFX 100S,回去后,对当时唯一拍摄到的一张照片进行了裁切,裁掉了大部分画面,最后还得到一张 4000 多万像素的照片。
当天唯一拍摄到的一张照片,在黄色框位置进行裁剪后仍然得到了 4000 多万像素的照片(下图)
《吉隆全景雪山》罗斐 摄 FUJIFILM GFX 100Sf/11,0.6 秒,ISO100
Tips:「GFX」采用无反系统设计,实现了相机及镜头的小型化,同时具备高性能及高速度。具有中画幅传感器的优异画质和比肩 35mm 全画幅数码单反旗舰机的操控性。
另外,值得一提的还有富士超经典的胶片模拟配方,让我可以轻松做到原片直出拍摄,将胶片模拟用于照片或视频拍摄,使我的作品更具个性化。
这几年的拍摄基本围绕西部,包括六次进青海,以及在可可西里无人区深度拍摄。未来我还是想在自然风光这个领域继续探寻,包括对自然环境的变迁,人与自然的交融等题材进行拍摄。
《新疆石头城》罗斐 摄 FUJIFILM GFX 100Sf/11,1/10 秒,ISO160
我喜欢说走就走的拍摄之旅。山在那里,其实每一天都不一样。
罗斐,富士胶片(中国)合作摄影师,深圳市风光摄影协会副会长,500PX 视觉中国签约摄影师
摄影并文/罗斐
编辑/黄媛媛、蒋里

Source: 山在那里,每一天都不一样——携富士 GFX 探索风光摄影新境界
94
Prudential: Tổng doanh thu tăng, 1.900 tỉ đồng bồi thường bảo hiểm năm 2023

Prudential vừa công bố báo cáo tài chính thường niên 2023, với tổng doanh thu, giá trị tài sản, chi trả quyền lợi bảo hiểm đều tăng.
Source: Prudential: Tổng doanh thu tăng, 1.900 tỉ đồng bồi thường bảo hiểm năm 2023
95
General News 经济新闻 / 台湾发生7.4级强震,日本发出海啸预警
« Last post by SuHaiJack on April 09, 2024, 12:09:06 AM »
台湾发生7.4级强震,日本发出海啸预警

MEAGHAN TOBIN2024年4月3日首都台北的震感持续了一分多钟,电视新闻上播出了建筑物摇晃的画面。 Chiang Ying-ying/Associated PressA powerful magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck Taiwan on Wednesday morning, prompting nearby Japan to issue a tsunami warning.周三上午,台湾发生7.4级强震,促使临近的日本发出海啸警告。The quake was centered off the coast of Hualien, on Taiwan’s east coast, according to the United States Geological Survey. Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration also recorded an aftershock of magnitude 6.5.据美国地质调查局,地震震中位于台湾东海岸的花莲沿岸。台湾中央气象署还录得一次震级为6.5级的余震。The quake’s epicenter was about 10 miles under the earth’s surface, according to Taiwan. Tremors could be felt for over a minute in the capital, Taipei, where news broadcasts showed footage of buildings shaking.据台湾称,此次地震的震源深度为地表以下约16公里。首都台北的震感持续一分多钟,电视新闻播放了建筑物摇晃的画面。In Japan, according to the broadcaster NHK, tsunami waves as high as 30 centimeters had already started hitting the shore on Yonaguni Island at 9:14 a.m. local time.据日本NHK广播公司报道,当地时间上午9点14分,与那国岛海岸已出现高达30厘米的海啸。Residents on Okinawa, Miyako and Yaeyama islands in southern Japan were told to get as far away from coastal areas as possible. According to NHK, the tsunamis were expected to hit the islands shortly after 10 a.m., with waves as high as 3 meters, or 10 feet, on Miyako and Yaeyama.日本南部冲绳岛、宫古岛和八重山岛的居民被告知尽可能远离沿海地区。据NHK报道,海啸预计将于上午10点过后不久袭击这些岛屿,宫古岛和八重山的海浪将高达3米。Motoko Rich自东京对本文有报道贡献。Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者,常驻台北,报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻,重点关注中国。点击查看更多关于她的信息。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。  https://feedx.run

Source: 台湾发生7.4级强震,日本发出海啸预警
96
Lần đầu tiên đấu giá quyền sử dụng tần số vô tuyến điện thành công sau 15 năm

'Lần
Đây là lần đầu tiên Bộ Thông tin và Truyền thông tổ chức đấu giá thành công sau 15 năm kể từ khi Luật Tần số vô tuyến điện được Quốc hội thông qua. ]]>
Source: Lần đầu tiên đấu giá quyền sử dụng tần số vô tuyến điện thành công sau 15 năm
97
استبدال اتحاد الكرة لـ"أديداس" بـ"نايك" يثير غضب ساسة ألمان

قرار "خاطئ ومخز وغير مفهوم"، وقرار "غير وطني"، "أطقم أديداس بألوانها الأسود والأحمر والذهبي.. قطعة من الهوية الألمانية"، هذا بعض من غضب ساسة ألمان إزاء تخلي اتحاد كرة القدم عن "أديداس" الألمانية لصالح "نايك" الأمريكية.

Source: استبدال اتحاد الكرة لـ"أديداس" بـ"نايك" يثير غضب ساسة ألمان
98
三月以来的黄金暴涨 ,华尔街都看不懂

本文来自:


华尔街见闻


,作者:葛佳明,头图来自:视觉中国





黄金上涨的情况往往会出现在美联储开启降息周期后,如果市场推迟对美联储的降息预期,名义利率上行叠加美元走强,黄金价格应该下跌。




但现在的情况是,黄金今年以来一路“狂飙”和美债收益率、美元呈现出同涨格局,这与过去负相关的定价逻辑存在明显分歧。截至发稿,现货黄金持续走高,日内涨0.75%,将纪录高点刷新至2353美元/盎司,年内涨幅超11%。







4月5日非农数据显示美国劳动力市场依旧强劲,强劲的就业增长可能导致美联储进一步推迟降息时间,期货市场交易预计美联储6月降息的概率降至50%,美债收益率回升至4.39%的今年以来高点,美元指数也在连续下跌后小幅反弹。




各大华尔街投行的高管和分析师对于为何黄金在这一时间点大幅上涨给出了多种答案包括:各国央行重新将黄金作为储备资产;对冲基金押注美联储转向,美债收益率即将下行;量化交易员被金价上涨所吸引;市场对美国通胀顽固和对硬着陆的担忧;全球地缘政治风险和不可预测的宏观经济前景......




媒体分析指出,本轮黄金大幅上涨,或许无法再按照传统的宏观央行政策逻辑进行交易,当前黄金价格与黄金ETF规模出现背离,各大央行的购金需求也无法完全解释金价的历史新高。




盛宝银行
(Saxo Bank)
大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen指出,这次黄金的上涨违背了很多常规思维,市场叙事正在向通胀反弹和可能的硬着陆转变,同时夹杂着大量的地缘政治不确定性和央行需求。




全球央行购金行为





华尔街见闻此前提及
,过去两年间各国央行对黄金的需求快速增长,连续两年增持黄金超过1000吨,打破了黄金传统的需求结构。




美国顶级经济学家、罗森伯格研究公司
(Rosenberg Research)
总裁David Rosenberg指出,金价近期新高离不开需求方面的推动,这要归功于各国央行重新将黄金作为储备资产。此外,许多人在抵御特殊经济风险时转向黄金,以作为安全保障。




4月7日,中国国家外汇管理局公布2024年3月末外汇储备规模数据,2024年3月,中国官方黄金储备为7274万盎司,较上月增加16万盎司,为连续第17个月增持黄金储备。




分析师们普遍认为,全球央行购金行为对黄金价格有一定的推动作用,但不应该将其作为最主要的原因或是唯一原因。数据显示,2022年黄金价格整体下跌,说明全球央行购金并未对金价起到支撑作用。




市场在买什么?




世界黄金协会数据显示,即便金价再创新高,但今年以来,
全球黄金ETF累计流出约57亿美元,全球实物黄金ETF连续第八个月流出。
当前黄金价格与黄金ETF规模出现背离。




ETF Store的总裁Nate Geraci表示,这是他在ETF领域见过的最不寻常的现象之一,“特别有趣的是,黄金在其他渠道的需求一直非常强劲,比如中央银行的购买以及个人和私人投资者的直接购买。”




花旗集团解释称,这种现象可能是因为早期进入市场的长期投资者现在正在出售他们的黄金ETF来获利,这也是为什么黄金ETF的净流入量相对较弱。此外,尽管有持续的资金流出,但黄金价格并未受到太大影响,这表明市场上有其他买家在购买这些黄金。




世界黄金协会ETF平台的负责人Joe Cavatoni指出,尽管通过ETF渠道的黄金投资出现了流出,但实物黄金的需求依然存在,并且被其他市场参与者所吸收:





“还有其他投资者正在购买实物黄金,所以这并没有产生任何影响,猜猜它们去了哪里:进入了场外交易市场,被中央银行买走了。”





为什么现在买黄金?




今年以来,华尔街对于美联储今年降息次数的预期正持续下降,常规框架下,如果美国宽松预期后移,名义利率上行叠加美元走强,黄金价格应该下跌。




媒体分析认为,黄金上涨的一种可能性在于,部分黄金投资者开始关注于基于最近数据的美国经济硬着陆的风险,并急于购买现货黄金作为避险工具。




绿光资本
(Greenlight Capital)
创始人兼总裁、亿万富翁投资者大卫·艾因霍恩
(David Einhorn)
认为,由于美联储难以控制通胀,可能会比预期更长时间地维持其紧缩货币政策,或导致经济存在潜在下行风险,基于此,他正在增加对黄金的投资。




艾因霍恩表示:“我们持有的黄金远不止GLD。我们还有实物黄金,黄金是我们重要的投资之一。”他进一步解释说:“我们国家的货币和财政政策整体上偏向宽松,这势必导致赤字问题。投资黄金是我们对冲未来可能出现不利局势的一种方式。”




媒体分析指出,上述解释也可以论证黄金价格差与美联储利率之间关系的变化:为什么在利率较高的情况下,黄金价格差
(即伦敦现货金与远期合约之间的价差)
会出现异常:





近几周,随着黄金现货价格飙升,伦敦现货黄金与3个月远期合约间的百分比收益率罕见地跌破美联储利率。从历史上看,只有当利率处于低位或即将大幅下调时,这种情况才会持续发生。投资者正争相持有现货黄金,以防范潜在动荡。






本文来自:


华尔街见闻


,作者:葛佳明


                                                                                   
                                                                       

                                本内容为作者独立观点,不代表虎嗅立场。未经允许不得转载,授权事宜请联系 hezuo@huxiu.com
如对本稿件有异议或投诉,请联系tougao@huxiu.com

Source: 三月以来的黄金暴涨 ,华尔街都看不懂
99
General News / Jamie Dimon Sees 8% Rates and More Takeaways from Investor Letter
« Last post by MarthaYork on April 08, 2024, 06:09:46 PM »
Jamie Dimon Sees 8% Rates and More Takeaways from Investor Letter


Source: Jamie Dimon Sees 8% Rates and More Takeaways from Investor Letter
100
荣科科技:公司不存在收购超聚变公司重组计划

2024.04.08
            荣科科技4月8日公告,近日关注到市场传闻有关公司的不实信息,称“公司拟以120-220亿元的价格收购超聚变公司”。公司不存在上述资产收购重组计划,也未进行相应的审计、资产评估、券商辅导等工作。对资产注入等猜测与事实不符,疑似市场炒作行为。

Source: 荣科科技:公司不存在收购超聚变公司重组计划

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