关于洛杉矶山火肆虐，我们了解到的最新消息

SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JESUS JIMÉNEZ2025年1月9日南加州的大火迫使数千人撤离家园。 Philip Cheung for The New York TimesFast-moving fires that reached across the Los Angeles area this week have burned more than 1,000 homes, destroyed beloved landmarks and forced more than 100,000 people to flee the fast-approaching flames.本周，野火席卷洛杉矶地区，火势迅速蔓延，烧毁了1000多栋房屋，摧毁了人们喜爱的地标建筑，并迫使超过10万人逃离迅速逼近的火海。The three largest fires — in the coastal Pacific Palisades neighborhood, in the suburban Pasadena area and in a rural stretch of the San Fernando Valley — were not at all contained as of Wednesday afternoon. Officials warned that more damage was likely as heavy winds and dry conditions continued to fuel their rapid growth.截至周三下午，三处最大的火情还完全没有得到控制。它们分别位于太平洋帕利塞德海岸社区、帕萨迪纳郊区和圣费尔南多谷周边的乡村地区。官员警告称，随着强风和干燥天气继续助长火灾的快速蔓延，可能会出现更多损失。Here’s the latest on the blazes:以下是有关火情的最新消息：Where are the fires burning?野火在哪里燃烧？Three big fires were burning in different parts of the Los Angeles area on Wednesday. To the west, the Palisades fire had scorched more than 15,000 acres and forced evacuations in cities and neighborhoods along the Pacific Coast Highway, including the Pacific Palisades, Malibu and Santa Monica. The residences in these areas include iconic mansions on bluffs that tower over the Pacific as well as tracts of homes in beachside neighborhoods.周三，洛杉矶地区有三处地方分别发生大火。在西部，帕利塞德大火烧毁了超过1.5万英亩的土地，迫使太平洋海岸公路沿线的城市和社区疏散居民，包括太平洋帕利塞德、马里布和圣莫尼卡。这些地区的住宅包括耸立在太平洋峭壁上的标志性豪宅，以及海滨社区的大片住宅。Helicopters, which had been grounded overnight because of bad conditions, were flying over the Palisades and dropping water on the flames on Wednesday, according to the office of the Los Angeles mayor, Karen Bass.据洛杉矶市长卡伦·巴斯办公室，数架直升机于周三飞越帕利塞德上空向火焰喷水，但由于空中条件恶劣，直升机于昨晚停飞。洛杉矶太平洋帕利塞德的一处居民区，消防员在与大火搏斗。To the east, a fire north of Pasadena in the San Gabriel Mountains had burned more than 10,000 acres as of Wednesday afternoon, and destroyed 100 homes. The blaze is called the Eaton fire because it began in Eaton Canyon in the mountains that are perhaps best known for the often snowcapped, highest peak referred to as Mt. Baldy. The fire has forced more than 32,000 evacuations in La Cañada Flintridge, Arcadia, Altadena, Pasadena and Monrovia — suburban areas where many homes are nestled against mountain foothills.在东部，截至周三下午，帕萨迪纳北部圣盖博山脉的一场大火烧毁了1万多英亩土地，摧毁了100栋房屋。这场大火因始于伊顿峡谷而被称为伊顿大火，伊顿峡谷所在的山脉以常年积雪的最高峰巴尔迪山而闻名。这场大火迫使拉卡纳达弗林特里奇、阿卡迪亚、阿尔塔迪纳、帕萨迪纳和蒙罗维亚的3.2万余人撤离——这些郊区的许多房屋都坐落在山脚下。And to the north, the Hurst fire had extended to 500 acres and was burning in the San Fernando Valley, about 25 miles northwest of downtown Los Angeles. While the Valley itself is densely populated, Sylmar is a more rural area that was once known for its olive orchards and is now home to horse properties.而在北部，赫斯特大火已蔓延500英亩，烧至圣费尔南多谷，该山谷位于洛杉矶市中心西北约40公里处。虽然山谷本身人口稠密，但西尔玛是一个更加乡村化的地区，曾以橄榄园而闻名，现在则是马场所在地。How many homes have been destroyed?有多少房屋被毁？The Palisades fire has destroyed more than 1,000 homes, officials said on Wednesday, and another 15,000 structures were at risk. The fire has also razed several beloved local institutions, including the Malibu Feed Bin, which had sold pet supplies and gifts since 1966, and Palisades Charter High School, the alma mater of numerous celebrities as well as the filming location of many TV shows, including “Modern Family.”官员周三表示，帕利塞德大火已烧毁1000多栋房屋，另有1.5万栋建筑处于危险之中。大火还烧毁了当地几处深受人们喜爱的场所，包括自1966年以来一直销售宠物用品和礼品的Malibu Feed Bin和帕利塞德特许高中，后者是众多名人的母校，也是《摩登家庭》(Modern Family)等多部电视剧的拍摄地。The Eaton fire has so far burned about 100 homes, officials said. Flames had seriously damaged at least part of the Pasadena Jewish Temple and Center, which has been operating for more than a century.官员称，伊顿大火迄今已烧毁了约100栋房屋。大火严重损坏了有百年历史的帕萨迪纳犹太教堂和中心的至少一部分建筑。The damage caused by the Hurst fire remains unclear.赫斯特大火造成的损失尚不清楚。Have there been any fatalities?有人员死亡吗？The Eaton fire killed five people, fire officials say. While there haven’t been any fatalities reported from the Palisades fire, there have been a “high number of significant injuries” among people who didn’t evacuate their homes when they should have, said Anthony C. Marrone, the fire chief for Los Angeles County.消防官员称，伊顿大火已造成五人死亡。洛杉矶县消防局局长安东尼·C·马罗内表示，虽然帕利塞德大火没有造成人员死亡，但有“大量人员因未在该撤离时离开家园而受重伤”。Why did these big fires break out at the same time?为何这几处大火会同时发生？Forecasters this week had warned of damaging wind gusts that would reach 50 to 80 m.p.h., and even above 100 m.p.h. in the mountains. The winds, combined with dry air, created a critical fire-weather event in Southern California. The hills are also covered in vegetation after two rainy winters that preceded this one. “This is about as bad as it gets in terms of fire weather,” forecasters said.本周，天气预报员警告称，破坏性阵风将达到每小时80至128公里，在山区甚至会超过每小时160公里。强风加上干燥的空气在南加州形成了严重的火灾天气。在经历了前两个多雨的冬季后，山丘上还长满了植被。“就火灾天气而言，这几乎是最坏的情况了，”预报员说。The winter and late fall tend to spawn catastrophic fires in California.加州的灾难性火灾通常出现在冬季和深秋。乔治·威尔金斯手持消防水管走进太平洋帕利塞德长老会教堂灭火。In periods without significant precipitation, as has been the case this winter, the vegetation becomes extremely parched. And cooler weather in California coincides with the Santa Ana winds, the strong and dry gusts that blow west from Nevada and Utah to Southern California — and are linked to the region’s most devastating fires.在没有大量降水的时期——就如今年冬天的情况一样——植被变得极为干燥。而当加州较冷的天气与圣安娜风同时出现时，会导致最具破坏性的火灾——圣安娜风是一阵强劲而干燥的阵风，从内华达州和犹他州向西吹向南加州。The deadliest and most destructive fire in California’s history, which destroyed the Northern California town of Paradise, broke out in mid-November 2018.2018年11月中旬爆发了加州历史上最致命、破坏力最强的大火，摧毁了北加州小镇天堂镇。Are the fires expected to keep growing?火势预计还会持续蔓延吗？Unfortunately, yes. Firefighters are limited in their ability to fight the fires from helicopters, as aircraft are grounded in places because of the strong winds. Firefighting resources are also stretched thin given the simultaneously burning fires, and in some places fire hydrants have begun to run dry amid the excessive demand.很遗憾，答案是肯定的。受强风影响，直升机在一些地区被停飞，因此消防员无法充分利用直升机来灭火。由于多处火情同时发生，消防资源也捉襟见肘，在一些地区，由于需求过大，消防栓已经开始干涸。Though winds are expected to begin diminishing this afternoon, they will be moderately strong in Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through Thursday, according to weather officials.气象官员表示，尽管预计今天下午风力将开始减弱，但到周四，洛杉矶和文图拉县的风力将达到中等偏强的程度。Fire officials are asking people who have not evacuated but live near the fires to stay alert, as the blazes are likely to move fast and unpredictably in the coming hours. And they are asking everyone in Southern California to beware of new fires.消防官员要求居住在火灾附近但尚未撤离的人们保持警惕，因为未来几个小时内火势可能会迅速蔓延且难以预测。他们还要求南加州所有人对新的火情保持警惕。Jacey Fortin对本文有报道贡献。Soumya Harlamangla是《纽约时报》记者，报道加州新闻。她常驻湾区。点击查看更多关于她的信息。Jesus Jiménez报道突发新闻、网络热门新闻和其他议题。他常驻纽约市。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：Koney Bai点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 关于洛杉矶山火肆虐，我们了解到的最新消息

当中美关系不再拥有“小院高墙”

GEOFFREY GERTZ2025年1月3日 Illustration by Kristie Bailey/The New York Times; source photographs by Evaristo Sa, via AFP, and Kevin Dietsch, via Getty Images.On Dec. 2, the United States announced a new round of export controls on advanced semiconductors to China, and more restrictions are expected soon. It was among the final pieces in an enduring legacy of the Biden administration: a significant expansion in the scale and scope of restricting China’s access to technology.去年12月2日，美国宣布了新一轮限制向中国出口先进半导体的管制，而且预期很快将出台更多限制。这是拜登政府持久政治遗产的最后部分之一：限制中国获取技术的规模和范围大幅扩大。To explain this policy over the past two years, including this month’s announcement, the administration repeatedly turned to one metaphor: a small yard with a high fence. It means that sensitive technologies should be kept within a yard protected by a high fence of trade and investment controls. But the yard should be small, limited to a narrow set of advanced technologies with military applications, while broader commercial trade and investment with China would continue.拜登政府反复使用“小院高墙”这个比喻来阐明过去两年里的政策，上月宣布限制措施时也用了这个说法。它的意思是，应该将敏感技术放进一个院子，用贸易和投资限制的高墙保护起来。但是这个院子应该很小，只涉及少数有军事用途的先进技术，同时，美中之间更广泛的商业贸易和投资仍将继续。As the Biden administration enters its final days, the contradictions of this “small yard, high fence” strategy are piling up. It is an attempt to achieve two goals that are inherently in conflict — pursuing a fundamental shift in the geopolitics of technology competition without upending the global economic order. The administration is falling short on both of these objectives. When Donald Trump takes office, his foreign policy team is likely to take the technology control tools that the Biden team developed but was reluctant to employ broadly and to unleash them at full force, resulting in significant economic disruption. So much for that manicured small yard.随着拜登政府进入最后阶段，“小院高墙”战略的矛盾之处正在增多。这个战略试图达到两个本质上相互冲突的目的：在不颠覆全球经济秩序的同时，推进技术竞争地缘政治的根本改变。拜登政府在达到这两个目标方面都做得不好。特朗普上任后，他的外交政策团队可能会采用由拜登团队启用，但又不愿广泛使用的技术控制工具，并全力释放这些工具，这将给经济造成显著的干扰。别再提那个精心设定范围的小院子了。The idea behind the “small yard, high fence” strategy made sense at first and reflected the Biden administration’s attempt to balance competing pressures in its relationship with China: the need to maintain, as the national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, put it, “as large of a lead as possible” over its primary strategic rival in foundational technology without severing all meaningful economic links.“小院高墙”战略背后的想法最初曾说得通，它反映了拜登政府在处理美中关系时试图平衡相互矛盾的压力：用国家安全顾问沙利文的话说，要让美国在基本技术领域，保持对主要战略竞争对手“尽可能大的领先优势”，但又不切断全部有意义的经济联系。This has proved to be exceedingly difficult. When the administration unveiled the first round of sweeping semiconductor export controls on China in October 2022, Alex W. Palmer in The Times described it as amounting to “a declaration of economic war.” And it came with sharp economic and diplomatic costs. U.S. tech companies worried that the high fence might shut them out from the Chinese market. U.S. allies in Europe and Asia shared some of Washington’s concerns about China’s military modernization program but were wary of making a sudden break with Beijing.事实证明，这非常困难。2022年10月，拜登政府宣布了第一轮针对中国的半导体出口全面限制后，亚历克斯·帕尔默在时报发表的文章中将其描述为“经济战的宣战书”。它带来了巨大的经济和外交代价。美国的技术企业担心，高墙可能会将它们挡在中国市场之外。美国在欧洲和亚洲的盟友对中国的军事现代化项目有一些与华盛顿一样的担忧，但对与北京突然决裂持谨慎态度。To ease those concerns, the Biden administration tried to be cautious and deliberate in introducing restrictions. Just a week after the semiconductor export controls were announced, Mr. Sullivan deployed the “small yard, high fence” metaphor to explain the administration’s approach. After that, “small yard, high fence” appeared time and again in talking points and news releases as the administration rolled out controls and restrictions on advanced technologies.为了缓解盟友们的担忧，拜登政府试图在采取限制措施时小心谨慎。就在宣布半导体出口管制措施的一周后，沙利文在阐明政府政策时使用了“小院高墙”的比喻。那之后，随着拜登政府推出更多控制和限制先进技术出口的措施，“小院高墙”的说法一次又一次地出现在讲话的要点和发布的新闻中。While the administration wanted to portray its approach as narrow and targeted, the reality was more complicated. The administration never defined which technologies would be within the boundaries of its small yard, in part because it’s difficult to predict what products might pose security risks in the future. This left the door open for expansions.尽管拜登政府想把自己的做法描述为小范围的、有针对性的，但现实情况要复杂得多。政府从未定义哪些技术属于小院之内，部分原因是，很难预测哪些产品可能会在未来带来安全风险。这为扩大院子留下了空间。And even if the number of restricted technologies was limited, their impact was not. Semiconductors and artificial intelligence are foundational technologies with wide-ranging applications, so the effect of blocking them on China’s economic and technological development will be substantial.而且，即使受限制技术的数量有限，但限制技术的影响并非有限。半导体和人工智能是应用范围广泛的基础技术，限制它们对中国经济和技术发展的影响将是巨大的。Over the past two years, the administration has released a series of new export controls, restrictions on outbound investments and limits on transferring data to China. Although each individual measure was narrow and tailored, the cumulative effect was far larger.拜登政府在过去两年里出台了一系列新的出口管制和对华投资限制，以及向中国传输数据的限制。虽然每项措施都是小范围的和特定的，但累积效应要大得多。The “small yard, high fence” framing did help win over some skeptical U.S. allies and partners, and that’s an important victory for the Biden team. Some of them even appropriated the metaphor. When Britain announced a review of its National Security and Investment Act in November 2023, it described the new approach as a “small garden, high fence.”“小院高墙”的总想法确实有助于赢得一些持怀疑态度的美国盟友和伙伴的支持，这对拜登团队来说是一个重大胜利。美国的一些盟友甚至借用了这个比喻。英国在2023年11月宣布修订《国家安全与投资法》时，将新做法描述为“小花园、高篱笆”。But the extent of cooperation with allies remained limited, in part because these governments did not fully trust the Biden administration’s promise to stay within self-imposed and undefined limits. Allies also worried that in the absence of effective legal guardrails, the policy tool kit the Biden administration was developing would one day be turned over to a less restrained U.S. administration that might greatly expand the yard. They are now looking apprehensively to the coming Trump presidency.但美国与盟友的合作程度仍然有限​​，部分原因是，拜登政府承诺其措施不会超出由它自己设定、没有定义的界限，盟国政府并不完全信任这一承诺。盟友们也担心，在缺少有效法律护栏的情况下，拜登政府正在开发的政策工具会在某天移交给一个不那么克制的美国政府，院子的范围可能会大为扩展。它们现在正忐忑地观望着即将上任的特朗普总统。China, of course, never bought the “small yard, high fence” idea. It does not accept the premise that national security technology controls are distinct from broader economic competition between the two powers, and it could see the wide-ranging implications of these supposedly narrow restrictions. The Biden administration’s attempts at reassurance did not dissuade China from responding with retaliatory measures, including this month’s announcement that China would block the export of certain critical minerals to the United States.中国当然从未接受“小院高墙”的想法。它不接受国家安全技术限制有别于两个大国之间更广泛的经济竞争这一前提，也能看出这些所谓的小范围限制的广泛影响。拜登政府试图作出的保证并未阻止中国采取反制措施进行报复，包括上个月宣布的禁止向美国出口某些关键矿产品。Mr. Trump, for his part, does not seek to separate economic and security competition and has shown little interest in minimizing disruption or cooperating with allies. His administration is poised to severely curtail trade and investment with China and pressure allies to do the same.就特朗普而言，他不寻求将经济竞争与国家安全区分开来，没有多少兴趣尽量减少经济干扰或与盟友合作。他的政府准备严厉限制与中国的贸易和对华投资，并向盟友施压，要求它们也这样做。Will Mr. Trump’s more confrontational approach work better? His team will need to tackle the same challenges that the Biden administration faced, including strengthening enforcement tools to crack down on smuggling and evasion and cajoling allies to introduce their own controls. And the Trump administration will eventually need an answer to just how far it intends to go in decoupling the U.S. economy from China and how much economic disruption it is willing to tolerate in the process. Despite its flaws, the “small yard, high fence” strategy served as a necessary brake. The Trump team will need some limiting principle of its own.特朗普更具对抗性的做法会更有效吗？他的团队将需要应对拜登政府同样面临的挑战，包括加强打击走私和躲避出口管制的执法工具，以及说服盟友采取自己的限制措施。特朗普政府最终需要回答的问题是，它打算在多大程度上让美国经济与中国脱钩，以及在这个过程中愿意容忍多大程度的经济扰乱。尽管“小院高墙”战略存在缺点，但仍起了必要的约束作用。特朗普团队将需要制定一些自己的限制原则。Geoffrey Gertz是新美国安全中心的高级研究员，曾担任拜登政府国家安全委员会的国际经济主任。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 当中美关系不再拥有“小院高墙”

展望2025：那些可能改变世界的事件

MASHA GONCHAROVA2024年12月27日34000多名板球迷挤在纽约州长岛的一个临时体育场内，观看印度和巴基斯坦在2024年板球世界杯上的比赛。两队有望在下一届冠军杯赛上对决，但地点仍在商议中。 Yuvraj Khanna for The New York TimesThis feature is part of a series called Turning Points, in which writers explore what critical moments from this year might mean for the year ahead. You can read more by visiting the Turning Points series page.本文是“转折点”系列的一部分，在这个系列中，撰文者探讨了今年的一些关键时刻对来年的意味。访问“转折点”系列页面，阅读更多内容。We approach an interesting juncture in 2025: the end of the first quarter of the 21st century.2025年，我们将迎来一个有趣的时刻：21世纪即将走完第一个25年。The first 25 years of any century feel a bit foundational. Consider the first 25 years of the 1900s: Orville and Wilbur Wright’s flight in Kitty Hawk, N.C., in 1903 ushered in the golden age of air travel. In 1917, the Bolsheviks stormed the Winter Palace, the seat of the czarist government in St. Petersburg, paving the way for Russia to enter the Soviet era. Just two years later, in 1919, the Treaty of Versailles redrew Europe, precipitating Adolf Hitler’s rise to power and, ultimately, World War II.任何世纪的头25年都会给人一种定调的感觉。想想20世纪的前25年：1903年，莱特兄弟在北卡罗来纳州基蒂霍克的飞行开启了航空旅行的黄金时代。1917年，布尔什维克攻占冬宫，推翻了圣彼得堡的沙皇政府，为俄罗斯进入苏维埃时代铺平了道路。仅仅两年后，1919年，《凡尔赛条约》重新划定了欧洲的版图，促成了希特勒的崛起，并最终导致了第二次世界大战。So what can we expect the next 75 years of the 21st century to look like based on its first 25? In the year 2000, the Netherlands became the first country to legalize same-Forex and Stock Speculating marriage. Since then, 35 countries have done the same. Then, the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States triggered America’s war on terror in the Middle East. Facebook debuted in 2004, and the first iPhone was released in 2007, both of which profoundly changed the way humans communicate and even exist — both online and in real life.那么，根据21世纪前25年的情况，我们能够预测21世纪接下来的75年会是什么样子吗？荷兰在2000年成为了第一个同性婚姻合法化的国家。从那以后，已经有35个国家效法。然后，2001年9月11日，美国遭受恐怖袭击，引发了美国在中东的反恐战争。Facebook于2004年首次亮相，第一款iPhone于2007年发布，两者深刻地改变了人类交流甚至存在的方式——无论是在线上还是现实生活中。Barack Obama was elected the first Black president of the United States in 2008 and inaugurated in 2009, just after the first Bitcoin transaction was initiated. In 2010, China became the world’s second-largest economy. The vast majority of the world’s countries adopted the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. An artificial intelligence computer program beat Lee Saedol, a world champion at the time, in the complex board game Go, in 2016. Space tourism became a thing in 2021.贝拉克·奥巴马在2008年当选美国第一位黑人总统，在2009年就职，就在比特币发起第一笔交易之后。2010年，中国成为世界第二大经济体。2015年，世界上绝大多数国家通过了《巴黎气候协定》。2016年，一款人工智能计算机程序在复杂的围棋比赛中击败了当时的世界冠军李世石。2021年，太空旅游成为了热门现象。The Covid-19 pandemic sent the world into lockdown in 2020 and normalized remote work. Wars in Syria, Ukraine and Gaza displaced millions. All the while, the planet grew steadily hotter, with 2024 on track to be the hottest year on record.2020年，Covid-19大流行使世界进入封锁状态，并使远程工作常态化。叙利亚、乌克兰和加沙的战争导致数以百万计人流离失所。与此同时，地球的温度持续上升，2024年有望成为有记录以来最热的一年。At the end of the 21st century’s first quarter, we teeter between greatness and doom. We appear to be at the frontier of an A.I. revolution, while at the same time staring down the threat of nuclear war. Read on for a glimpse into the next 12 months of our frightful and fantastic future.在21世纪的第一个25年接近尾声的时候，我们在伟大与毁灭之间摇摆不定。人工智能革命似乎一触即发，同时我们也面临着核战争的威胁。以下是接下来的12个月里，我们既可怕又美好的未来。JANUARY1月瑞士卫兵在梵蒂冈圣彼得大教堂站岗。教宗方济各于2024年12月24日在圣彼得大教堂宣布禧年的开始。THE VATICAN, Dec. 24, 2024-Jan. 6, 2026: Once every 25 years, Roman Catholics commemorate their faith in a yearlong Jubilee, or Holy Year. This one technically begins on Dec. 24, 2024, when Pope Francis will open the Holy Door of St. Peter’s Basilica to an anticipated 25 million pilgrims, and ends with the Epiphany in January 2026. In the Papal Bull proclaiming this Jubilee and its theme of “hope,” Pope Francis identified a “new form of injustice” — an “ecological debt” connected to the disproportionate use of natural resources by some countries at the expense of others. Pope Francis also appealed to “the more affluent nations” to forgive the monetary debts of countries that “will never be able to repay them.” Indeed, a U.N. report from 2024 estimates that 15 countries in Africa, Asia and Oceania paid more on interest payments to service their national debts than on education, and 46 countries’ interest payments exceeded their health expenditures.梵蒂冈，2024年12月24日～2026年1月6日：罗马天主教徒每25年一次，在持续一年的禧年或圣年纪念他们的信仰。严格来说本禧年始于2024年12月24日，届时教宗方济各将向预计将达到2500万的朝圣者开放圣彼得大教堂的圣门，并于2026年1月的主显节结束。在宣布这个禧年以及以“希望”为主线的《禧年诏书》中，教宗方济各指出存在一种“新形式的不公正”——一种与某些国家以牺牲他国利益为代价，过度使用自然资源有关的“生态债务”。教皇方济各还呼吁“较富裕的国家”免除那些“永远无法偿还债务”的国家的货币债务。事实上，联合国2024年的一份报告估计，非洲、亚洲和大洋洲的15个国家为偿还国家债务支付的利息超过教育支出，46个国家的利息支付超过了它们的医疗支出。MEXICO, Jan. 11: Hear the whir of batteries and smell the fresh air! Welcome to the first Formula E race of the calendar year at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodríguez. The Mexico City E-Prix championship for electric cars celebrates its 11th racing season with a new car design, the GEN3 Evo, the fastest-accelerating single-seat racecar in the world. The GEN3 can go from zero to 60 miles per hour in 1.82 seconds, which is 30 percent faster than a Formula 1 car.墨西哥，1月11日：聆听电池的嗡嗡声，呼吸新鲜空气！欢迎来到在罗德里格斯兄弟赛道举行的本年度首场电动方程式比赛。墨西哥城电动车锦标赛迎来了第11个赛季的比赛，它采用了全新的赛车设计，即GEN3 Evo，这是世界上加速最快的单座赛车。GEN3能在1.82秒内从0加速到每小时60英里，比一级方程式赛车还快30%。UNITED STATES, Jan. 19: Gen Z may have a “Footloose” moment on its hands if TikTok, the app made famous for dancing, gets banned. The app draws billions of monthly users worldwide — including 170 million in the United States — with a proprietary algorithm that just seems to know you. Congress, concerned that the Chinese government knows a little too much about Americans through the data TikTok collects, passed a law banning TikTok unless it divests from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, by Jan. 19, 2025. TikTok’s chief executive Shou Zi Chew has dismissed the law as unconstitutional and challenged it in federal court, but so far the ban has been upheld.美国，1月19日：如果因舞蹈而出名的应用TikTok被禁，Z世代可能会面临一个《浑身是劲》时刻（一部讲述小镇青年反对跳舞禁令的电影。——译注）。这款应用每月吸引全球数十亿用户——其中包括美国的1.7亿——它的专有算法似乎对用户了如指掌。美国国会担心，中国政府通过TikTok收集的数据对美国人了解得有点过多了，于是通过一项法律禁止TikTok，除非它在2025年1月19日之前从中国母公司字节跳动剥离。TikTok的首席执行官周受资认为这项法律违宪，并在联邦法院提出了挑战，但到目前为止，该禁令得到了维持。FEBRUARY2月PAKISTAN, Feb. 19-March 5: The cricket rivalry between India and Pakistan is one of the most-watched sports rivalries in the world. Last year’s face-off in the Cricket World Cup drew more than 400 million viewers. (For context, the Super Bowl reached 125 million.) This year, the teams should meet at the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy tournament, hosted by Pakistan. However, India has not played in the country since 2008 due to regional tensions, so negotiations continue over where — or if — India’s matches will be played.巴基斯坦，2月19日～3月5日：印度和巴基斯坦之间的板球比赛是世界上最受关注的体育赛事之一。去年板球世界杯的对决吸引了超过4亿观众。（作为对比，去年超级碗的观众人数为1.25亿。）今年，两支球队将在巴基斯坦主办的2025年ICC冠军杯上相遇。然而，由于地区紧张局势，印度自2008年以来就没有到巴基斯坦参加过比赛，因此有关印度队的比赛地点或双方是否举行比赛的谈判仍在继续。美国国家航空航天局宇航员布奇·威尔莫尔和苏尼·威廉姆斯于2024年6月5日离开地球前往国际空间站，预计将于2025年2月返回。INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION: Welcome to the Hotel I.S.S., where you come for eight days, but you can never leave (well, at least not until you can hitch a ride with the SpaceX Crew-9). The NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore will return to Earth in February when the SpaceX mission wraps up. They arrived at the International Space Station in June 2024 expecting to stay just more than a week, but helium leaks and thruster failures on their original ride — the Boeing Starliner — made it too risky for them to return to Earth on it.国际空间站：欢迎来到国际空间站酒店，你打算在这里待8天，结果却再也无法离开（好吧，至少在你能搭上SpaceX载人9号的便车之前）。美国宇航局宇航员苏尼·威廉姆斯和布奇·威尔莫尔将于2月份SpaceX任务结束后返回地球。他们于2024年6月抵达国际空间站，预计只停留一个多星期，但他们原定乘坐的波音“星际客机”发生氦气泄漏和推进器故障，使得他们乘坐它返回地球的风险太大。MARCH3月2024年3月，首尔的医生们参加集会，抗议政府提高医学院录取率的计划。SOUTH KOREA: Hippocrates is said to have once proclaimed, “Everyone has a doctor in him or her.” South Korea, which faces an acute doctor shortage in emergency care facilities and hospitals, is hoping to avoid testing that theory. In 2024, government officials implemented a mandatory increase in medical school admissions that would enroll an additional 2,000 students in medical schools at the beginning of the academic year in March. However, doctors say that more students is not the solution. They have staged protests and walkouts, arguing that the remedy is actually to increase the low wages of jobs in essential medical fields like emergency services.韩国：希波克拉底曾说过：“每个人心中都有个医生。”急救设施和医院面临医生严重短缺问题的韩国希望避免成为这个说法的鉴证。2024年，政府官员实施了医学院强制扩招的政策，计划在3月学年开始时再招收2000名医学生。然而，医生们表示，增加学生人数并不能解决问题。他们举行了抗议和罢工，认为真正的应对之法是提高急救等基本医疗领域工作的低工资。新奥尔良奥杜邦社区一座为狂欢节装饰的豪宅。路易斯安那州的这座城市将在“超级狂欢节”期间狂欢数周。UNITED STATES, March 4: Less than four weeks after Super Bowl LIX at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, the annual Mardi Gras celebration wraps up less than a mile away with Fat Tuesday on Bourbon Street. Locals call the collision of the Super Bowl and Mardi Gras “Super Gras,” and city officials are ramping up efforts to keep participants safe by enforcing bans on objects like confetti cannons.美国，3月4日：在新奥尔良凯撒超级圆顶体育场举行的第59届“超级碗”比赛不到四周后，不到一英里外的波旁街上的“肥美星期二”活动为一年一度的狂欢节画下句点。当地人把超级碗和狂欢节的撞期称为“超级狂欢节”，市政府官员正在加紧努力，通过禁止使用彩纸炮等物品来保证参与者的安全。APRIL4月ANTARCTICA, April 22: On Earth Day, National Geographic unveils the documentary “Secrets of the Penguins,” which will feature the first drone footage in the world of penguin  Yield curve option-pricing modelss leaping off a 50-foot cliff to take their very first swim. The footage was filmed in 2024, but one year prior, in 2023, sea ice shrank to a record low and  Yield curve option-pricing modelss were forced to enter the sea before their waterproof feathers fully came in, which scientists estimated caused the deaths of tens of thousands of  Yield curve option-pricing modelss.南极洲，4月22日：在地球日这一天，国家地理频道回推出纪录片《企鹅的秘密》，其中将出现世界上首个由无人机拍摄的企鹅幼崽从15米高的悬崖上跳进大海第一次游泳的画面。这段视频拍摄于2024年，但一年前，也就是2023年，海冰面积缩小到历史最低点，小企鹅被迫在防水羽毛尚未完全长出来之前进入大海，科学家估计，这导致了数万只小企鹅的死亡。MAY5月JAPAN, May 10-11: Every year, Nakano Central Park celebrates Sichuan, the pungent, tangy cuisine based on the Sichuan pepper from southwest China that Anthony Bourdain once described as “a wonderfully sadomasochistic interplay between pleasure and pain.” At the Tokyo Sichuan Festival 2025, as with many of Tokyo’s food fairs, you can try the classics like mala hotpot filled with beef, tofu, greens and chile oil, or venture into the unknown — Sichuan peppercorn ice cream, anyone?日本，5月10～11日：每年，中野中央公园都会主办川菜节，这种以来自中国西南部的花椒为基础的重口味辛辣菜肴，曾被名厨安瑟尼·波登形容是“愉悦与痛苦之间奇妙的虐恋互动”。在2025年东京川菜节上——与这里的许多美食节一样，您可以品尝经典的麻辣锅，里面有牛肉、豆腐、蔬菜和辣椒油，或者尝试一些新奇的美食——花椒冰激淋，要不要考虑一下？JUNE 6月2019年，巴黎圣母院遭受了一场毁灭性火灾，经过五年的重建，巴黎圣母院将再次向游客开放。FRANCE, June 8: After a fire broke out in the oak rafters of Notre-Dame de Paris in 2019, engulfing and toppling its medieval spires and destroying much of the roof, France began years of work to repair the 850-year-old landmark. A committee tasked with the cathedral’s reconstruction reviewed varying proposals — including a rooftop swimming pool — and ultimately approved some more conservative modernizations, like contemporary art and new lighting. The cathedral’s reopening festivities, which began in December 2024, culminate in June during the feast of Pentecost. For some, the renovations will be a dialogue between the old and new; for others, a lamentable departure from tradition.法国，6月8日：2019年，巴黎圣母院的橡木椽架发生大火，中世纪尖塔坍塌，大部分屋顶被毁，法国开始了对这个850年历史的地标建筑的修复工作。负责重建的委员会审查了各种方案——包括建造一座屋顶泳池——最终批准了一些更保守的现代化措施，比如当代艺术和新的照明系统。大教堂重新开放的庆祝活动始于2024年12月，在6月份的宗教节日五旬节期间达到高潮。对一些人来说，此次翻新是新旧之间的对话；对另一些人来说，这是对传统的可悲背离。2022年，参加一年一度的同志马拉松赛的选手。2025年的赛事定于6月8日举行。SOUTH AFRICA, June 8: The Comrades Marathon, known as “the ultimate human race,” is the largest and the oldest ultramarathon in the world, but might better be described as half running, half climbing. Established in 1921 by a group of World War I “comrades,” the roughly 55-mile race is considered one of the world’s most punishing events, due to its changing terrain. This year, the race begins at an elevation of 2,100 feet in Pietermaritzburg, the capital of the KwaZulu-Natal province, and ends at sea level in the city of Durban along the Indian Ocean .南非，6月8日：被称为“终极人类比赛”的同志马拉松是世界上规模最大、历史最悠久的超级马拉松赛事，但更准确地说，它可以用一半跑步，一半攀爬来形容。该赛事于1921年由一群“一战战友”创办，由于地形多变，约88公里的赛程被认为是世界上最具挑战性的赛事之一。今年的比赛从夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的首府彼得马里茨堡海拔640米的高处开始，终点位于印度洋海滨城市德班。THE NETHERLANDS, June 24-26: The Hague, the self-proclaimed international city of peace and justice, hosts the NATO summit for the first time since the organization’s founding in 1949. The alliance’s 32 member states, Ukraine and partners such as Australia and New Zealand will be in attendance primarily to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war. The price tag for the summit — 95 million euros — reflects necessary security measures.荷兰，6月24～26日：自称为国际和平与正义之城的海牙，自1949年北约成立以来将首次主办北约峰会。北约的32个成员国、乌克兰以及澳大利亚和新西兰等伙伴国将出席会议，主要讨论俄乌战争问题。此次峰会的开支为9500万欧元，这反映了必要的安全措施所带来的昂贵成本。JULY 7月UNITED KINGDOM, July 4: Wembley. Backstage. Two brothers. One band. Airborne tambourines and cricket bats, each thrown by one brother at the other. It’s the Oasis Live ’25 tour! OK — let’s hope not. Liam and Noel Gallagher are older and wiser now, and are getting the band back together after 15 long years simply to look back in anger, cry their hearts out, not go away, live forever, roll with it and be rock stars.英国，7月4日：温布利球场。后台。俩兄弟。一个乐队。手鼓和板球棒在空中飞舞，兄弟俩互掷。这是绿洲乐队2025巡演！好吧——希望不会这样。利安和诺埃尔·加拉格现在更成熟，也更睿智了，他们在漫长的15年后让乐队重组，只是为了“愤怒地回首”，“喊出他们的心声”，“不离开”，“永远活着”，“顺其自然”，当一个“摇滚明星”。灵长类动物学家、环保活动人士简·古道尔在坦桑尼亚赞助了一个文化综合体。 Erinn Springer for The New York TimesTANZANIA, July 14: Dr. Jane Goodall releases “Dr. Jane’s Dream,” an immersive experience created by African artists and Disney veterans. Debuting on World Chimpanzee Day, the event will be held at a cultural complex in Tanzania where visitors can experience the primatologist and environmental activist’s breakthroughs, including a tent set where she and her mother looked out into the world of the chimps.坦桑尼亚，7月14日：简·古道尔博士将推出《简博士的梦》，这是一个由非洲艺术家和一些曾经的迪士尼创作者共同打造的沉浸式体验。它将于世界黑猩猩日首次亮相，在坦桑尼亚的一个文化中心举行，游客可以在那里体验这位灵长类动物学家和环境活动家的突破性成就，包括她和母亲眺望黑猩猩世界的那顶帐篷。NORWAY: Four American athletes, including a retired U.S. Navy SEAL and an N.F.L. tight end, will embark on The Arctic Challenge, rowing the open Arctic Ocean in a 9.6-meter boat, completely unsupported for 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) from Tromso, Norway, to Longyearbyen, in the Svalbard archipelago. The journey is expected to take 10 to 20 days, and the teammates will trade off two-hour rowing shifts around the clock until the challenge is complete.挪威：四名美国运动员（包括一名退役的美国海军海豹突击队员和一名全美橄榄球联盟的近端锋，将参加这次“北极挑战赛”，乘坐一艘9.6米长的船从挪威特罗姆瑟出发，划过开阔的北冰洋，前往斯瓦尔巴群岛的朗伊尔城，全程1000公里。队友们将昼夜不停地轮流划船，两小时一班，直到挑战完成。7月份，异常剧烈的太阳活动可能带来绚丽的极光，但也可能破坏通信系统。THE SUN: Once every 11 years, the sun dramatically releases energy (who can relate?) during the course of a solar cycle, or a process by which the sun flips its magnetic poles. The solar maximum — the middle of the solar cycle — occurs when the sun shows the most sunspots, which are planet-size regions of strong magnetic fields on its surface. Scientists expect a peak of 115 sunspots in July, which on Earth could cause brilliant auroras, but also potential outages in global positioning systems, radio communications and electrical grids.太阳：每隔11年，太阳会在一个太阳周期——或者说太阳磁极翻转过程——中剧烈地释放能量（很多人应该能理解那种感觉）。太阳活动的极大期——也就是太阳周期的中点——是在太阳黑子最多的时候，太阳黑子是太阳表面形成的行星大小的强磁场区域。科学家预计，7月份将出现115个太阳黑子，达到顶峰，这在地球上可能引发绚丽的极光，但也可能导致全球定位系统、无线电通信和电网中断。AUGUST8月MEXICO, Aug. 31: Eight of Mexico’s 11 sitting Supreme Court justices step down from the bench in protest of a judicial reform that will require nearly all federal judges to stand for popular election. The justices declined to participate in the election and will resign when their terms conclude, at the end of August. Since the passage of the reform in September 2024, more than 18,000 people have signed up to run for a seat on the Supreme Court. Candidates must have a law degree, a 3.2 grade point average, five years of professional experience and five letters of recommendation from neighbors or friends. A random drawing determines who gets on the ballot. The election for the new justices will be held June 1.墨西哥，8月31日：墨西哥最高法院11名现任法官中，有八人因抗议一项要求几乎所有联邦法官需经普选的司法改革而辞职。这些法官拒绝参选，并将在8月底任期结束时辞职。自2024年9月改革通过以来，已有超过1.8万人报名竞选最高法院法官。候选人必须拥有法学学位、3.2分的平均绩点、5年的专业经验以及来自邻居或朋友的5封推荐信。通过随机抽签决定谁能登上选票。新法官的选举将于6月1日举行。SEPTEMBER9月JAPAN, Sept. 20: A collection of masterpieces by Vincent van Gogh travels to Kobe City, Fukushima and Tokyo for a blockbuster, two-year, two-part exhibition commemorating the anniversaries of the Great Hanshin Earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake. The 60-plus works span van Gogh’s life and include “Café Terrace at Night” and ““The Langlois Bridge at Arles with Women Washing.”日本，9月20日：为了纪念阪神大地震和东日本大地震，神户、福岛和东京将举行梵高名作展，展览分两个部分，为期两年。展出的60多幅作品涵盖了梵高的一生，包括《夜晚的露天咖啡馆》和《阿尔勒朗格卢瓦桥下的洗衣妇》。BELGIUM, Sept. 25: Peter Paul Rubens’s painting “Enthroned Madonna Adored by Saints” is so big that it was too large to be moved from the Rubens Gallery inside the Royal Museum of Fine Arts Antwerp for required restoration. Wasting no time, a makeshift studio was promptly built and named “Studio Rubens,” and restorers and researchers proceeded to conduct their work on the 20-foot-tall, 800-pound framed painting in view of museum visitors. This rare chance to see a restoration process live comes to a close in September — come see the revival of a Rubens while you can!比利时，9月25日：鲁本斯的油画作品《圣座上的圣母子与圣徒》体积过于庞大，无法从安特卫普皇家美术博物馆的鲁本斯画廊移出进行必要的修复。博物馆迅速搭建了一个临时工作室，命名为“鲁本斯工作室”，修复师和研究人员在游客的注视下，开始对这幅高达6米、重达363公斤的画作进行修复。这次难得的现场修复过程将在9月结束——抓住机会，来亲眼见证鲁本斯的修复！OCTOBER10月VICE CITY, LEONIDA, Oct. 27?: To say that gamers are excited about the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, the next generation of the GTA series by Rockstar Games, would be an understatement. The first trailer for the game broke a Guinness World Record for most-viewed video game reveal, and nearly 180,000 people follow an X account tracking updates about the game’s release. The sixth iteration of the game returns to VIce City (get it?), a hyper-realistic, neon version of Miami, where GTA was last set in 2002, and features the franchise’s first female protagonist, Lucia, a criminal at a prison in the state of Leonida. Take 2, the parent company of Rockstar, has confirmed that the release will be in fall 2025, but fans are Currency carry trade on Oct. 27, thanks to some online sleuthing.10月27日，美国莱奥尼达省维斯城：说玩家们对即将推出的新一代《GTA》系列游戏《侠盗猎车手6》(Grand Theft Auto VI)感到兴奋，只能说太轻描淡写了。该游戏的首部预告片打破了吉尼斯世界纪录，成为观看人数最多的游戏揭晓视频。近18万人关注着一个追踪游戏发布更新的X账户。游戏的第六次迭代回到了罪恶都市（看懂了吗？）（Vice City中的VI大写，可理解为罗马数字“六”。——译注），一个超写实霓虹版迈阿密，GTA上一次设定在这里是在2002年，新一代游戏将推出第一位女性主角露西娅，她是莱昂尼达州一所监狱的罪犯。Rockstar的母公司Take 2已确认将于2025年秋季发售，但根据网上的一些调查，粉丝们认为发售时间将会在10月27日。GERMANY, Oct. 15-19: The Frankfurt Book Fair, established in 1949, is the world’s largest trade fair for books. Held annually in October, the event attracts publishers, authors, literary agents, librarians and cultural enthusiasts (including, in 2024, one Bob Dylan). The fair is immense in scale, with more than 230,000 attendees and exhibitors from more than 100 countries in 2024 alone. But its significance in recent years has extended beyond books, as the fair attempts to strike a balance between fostering international dialogue and taking a moral stand amid two global conflicts. The fair decided to exclude Russian state institutions after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, although individual Russian publishers have been allowed to attend independently. In 2023, the fair postponed an award for the Palestinian author Adania Shibli amid the Gaza-Israel conflict, igniting accusations of censorship and bias. The guest of honor in 2025 is the Philippines.10月15日至19日，德国：创办于1949年的法兰克福书展是世界上最大的图书交易会。这场每年10月举行的活动吸引了出版商、作家、文学经纪人、图书馆员和文化爱好者（包括2024年前来的鲍勃·迪伦）。书展规模宏大，仅2024年就有来自100多个国家的23万多名参与者和参展商。但近年来，书展的意义已经超越了图书，因为它试图一方面确立自己在两场全球冲突中的道德立场，同时又兼顾对国际对话的促进。2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，书展决定将俄罗斯国家机构排除在外，尽管个别俄罗斯出版商被允许独立参展。2023年，在加沙-以色列冲突中，书展推迟了为巴勒斯坦作家阿达尼亚·希布利颁奖，引发了对审查和偏见的指责。2025年的主宾国是菲律宾。NOVEMBER11月BRAZIL, Nov. 10-21: The U.N. Climate Change Conference, known as COP30, is coming to Belém, a city in the north of the Brazilian Amazon, but locals are complaining that the meeting may actually harm the environment. To facilitate traffic into and out of Belém, regional officials have approved the construction of a new highway, the Avenida Liberdade, which environmentalists say will cut through the Belém Environmental Protection Area — a protected conservation area — and disrupt  Earnings-price ratiolife movements from the adjoining Utinga State Park.11月10日至21日，巴西：被称为COP30的联合国气候变化大会即将在巴西亚马逊北部城市贝伦召开，但当地人抱怨说，这次会议实际上可能会对环境造成危害。为了方便进出贝伦的交通，地区官员已经批准修建一条新的高速公路自由大道，但环保人士称，这条高速公路将穿过受保护的自然保护区贝伦环境保护区，并干扰毗邻的乌廷加州立公园内野生动物的活动。DECEMBER12月PANDORA, Dec. 19: “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third installment of James Cameron’s five-part “Avatar” series, hits theaters. Few directors have had the Midas touch quite like Cameron, both financially (the first and second “Avatar” films each grossed more than $2 billion worldwide, joining “Titanic” on the list of the top five highest grossing films of all time) and in weaving his stories into the cultural fabric. This time, Cameron takes the Sully family into darker waters, noting at a recent Disney fan event that the film’s titular fire reflects themes of “hatred, violence, trauma, possible misuse of power” and ash reflects the “aftermath of all that energy, which is grief and having to live with what you’ve done.”12月19日，潘多拉星球：詹姆斯·卡梅隆的《阿凡达》系列五部曲的第三部《阿凡达：火与灰》(Avatar: Fire and Ash)上映。很少有导演能像卡梅隆这样，无论是在票房上（第一部和第二部《阿凡达》的全球总票房均超过20亿美元，与《泰坦尼克号》一起跻身史上票房最高的五部电影之列），还是在将他的故事编织进文化织体方面，都有着点石成金的本领。这一次，卡梅隆将萨利一家带入了更黑暗的领域，他在最近的一次迪士尼影迷活动上表示，片名里的火象征了“仇恨、暴力、创伤、可能的滥权”等主题，而灰则代表了“所有这些能量留下的东西，那就是悲伤，以及不得不承受你所做的一切的后果”。SOMETIME IN 20252025年某个时间点ABU DHABI: Embracing an opportunity to assert its cultural identity on the world stage, Abu Dhabi unveils the enormous Zayed National Museum on Saadiyat Island, joining the outposts of the Louvre and Guggenheim museums nearby. Its silhouette, inspired by the wings of a falcon in flight, is composed of five aerodynamic towers that will house exhibits showing evidence of human activity in the United Arab Emirates dating back 300,000 years.阿布扎比：阿布扎比抓住在世界舞台上彰显其文化身份的机会，将在萨迪亚特岛推出巨大的扎耶德国家博物馆，与卢浮宫和古根海姆博物馆在该国的分馆比邻而居。扎耶德国家博物馆的轮廓灵感来源于猎鹰飞行时的翅膀，由五座符合空气动力学原理的塔楼组成，馆内将陈列阿拉伯联合酋长国30万年前人类活动的证据。UNITED STATES: Are you dying for a new type of theme park? Consider yourself summoned by the dark spirits of Las Vegas to the first year-round experience of Universal Studios’s fairly expansive collection of horror franchises. Sink your teeth into a creepy combination of attractions based on classic horror characters — Dracula, Frankenstein’s monster, the Mummy — and attractions based on new horror from directors like James Wan (“The Conjuring”) and Jordan Peele (“Get Out”).美国：你渴望体验新型主题公园吗？就当自己受到了拉斯维加斯黑暗精灵的召唤，来游玩环球影城首个全年体验项目——恐怖主题乐园系列的丰富活动吧。你将沉浸在令人毛骨悚然的项目，包括以经典恐怖角色——德古拉、弗兰肯斯坦的怪物、木乃伊——为题材的景点，还有以温子仁导演的《咒怨》(The Conjuring)和乔丹·皮尔的《逃出绝命镇》(Get Out)等新恐怖电影作品为主题的游玩项目中。WORLD: More than 175 countries are expected to sign a United Nations treaty agreeing to reduce single-use plastics and encouraging a shift toward sustainable alternatives. Small island states, which suffer the worst impacts of ocean plastic waste, are collectively onboard, as are Japan and South Korea, which have advanced recycling programs. Less certain is the participation of the United States, China and Saudi Arabia — which participated during treaty negotiations but number among the world’s largest plastics producers.世界：预计将有超过175个国家签署一项联合国条约，同意减少一次性塑料制品，并鼓励向可持续替代品转变。受海洋塑料垃圾影响最严重的小岛屿国家，以及拥有先进回收计划的日本和韩国将集体加入该条约。不太确定的是美国、中国和沙特阿拉伯是否会加入——虽然参与了条约谈判，但它们是世界上最大的几个塑料生产国。本文最初发表于2024年12月9日。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 展望2025：那些可能改变世界的事件

为什么星巴克在中国“糊”了

艾莎, JULIE CRESWELL, ZIXU WANG2024年12月20日北京一家星巴克门店前的行人，摄于今年9月。星巴克1999年进入中国时，那里还没有其他真正经营咖啡的公司。 Jessica Lee/EPA, via ShutterstockStarbucks has a China problem: coffee and tea drinkers who want more for less.星巴克有一个中国难题：咖啡和茶饮爱好者们想要物美价廉的商品。Vivian Yan tried her first Starbucks coffee eight years ago. She was desperate for a jolt of caffeine at work, and the store was nearby. “It didn’t necessarily mean I love Starbucks,” she said, “nor was it my first choice.”维维安·严（音）第一次喝星巴克咖啡是八年前。上班的时候，她特别需要一些咖啡因，而那家星巴克就在附近。“这并不一定意味着我爱喝星巴克，”她说，“它也不是我的首选。”These days, she thinks a cup of Starbucks is a little too expensive and prefers to get her coffee from McDonald’s. But what she really loves is ChaGee, HeyTea and other Chinese chains that sell coconut milk lattes, boba milk teas with cheese cream and sugary jasmine tea frappés. “They are delicious and offer more choices,” said Ms. Yan, 35, who is from China’s eastern province of Jiangsu.这些日子里，她觉得一杯星巴克咖啡有点太贵了，更爱去麦当劳喝咖啡。但她真正喜欢的是霸王茶姬、喜茶，以及其他中国连锁店，这些连锁店里有椰奶拿铁、芝士奶盖珍珠奶茶，以及用茉莉花茶制作的甜味冰沙。“它们很好喝，而且有更多的选择，”现年35岁的严女士说道，她来自东部省份江苏。Ms. Yan’s preference for more diverse flavors poses an acute challenge for Starbucks. It is losing customers at a rapid pace. Brian Niccol, the new chief executive, sounded the alarm in October, calling the competition “extreme” in the company’s second-biggest market behind the United States.严女士对更多样化口味的偏好给星巴克带来了一个十分严重的挑战。星巴克的客户正在迅速流失。新任首席执行官布莱恩·尼科尔已在今年10月敲响了警钟，称星巴克在中国这个仅次于美国的第二大市场面临的竞争“异常激烈”。瑞幸咖啡的员工在一家北京门店里制作白酒拿铁，摄于去年。瑞幸是中国最成功的本土咖啡连锁店之一。When Starbucks opened its first shop in China in 1999, tea dominated and coffee culture was practically nonexistent. But the company quickly built a thriving market alongside a swelling middle class that was turning to iPhones, Gucci handbags and other international brands to signal its newfound wealth.1999年，星巴克在中国开设第一家门店时，茶在当地占主导地位，咖啡文化几乎不存在。但该公司很快建起了一个蓬勃发展的中国市场，那时，中国的中产阶级不断壮大，他们正在转向iPhone、古驰手袋，以及其他国际品牌来彰显新获得的财富。Today, consumers are less interested in foreign brands, more cost conscious and enticed by local rivals that are popping up on corners all around the country offering something a little different. Dozens of competitors to Starbucks spin out new flavors of tea and coffee every week, at lower prices, creating competition so ferocious that Starbucks saw a 14 percent plunge in same-store sales in China in its most recent financial quarter.如今，中国消费者对外国品牌的兴趣已大不如前，他们对价格更敏感，并受到了本土竞争对手的吸引，这些提供略微不同产品的商家已在全国各地的街头涌现。星巴克的数十家竞争对手们每周都在推出新口味的茶和咖啡，而且价格更低，竞争如此之激烈，以至于星巴克中国的同店销售额在最近的财季中下降了14%。Luckin Coffee, a Chinese brand that started seven years ago, now generates more revenue in the country than Starbucks. It has nearly three times as many stores, and opens a new one, on average, every hour.瑞幸咖啡是七年前创立的中国品牌，目前在中国的营收已超过星巴克。瑞幸门店的数量几乎是星巴克的三倍，并以平均每小时开一家新门店的速度增长。Mr. Niccol, who took over as Starbucks’s chief executive in September, has to not only figure out how to help the coffee chain regain its footing in the United States, where its 17,000 stores generated $26.7 billion in revenue last year, but also find a solution in China, where its 7,600 stores bring in around $3 billion in annual sales.尼科尔今年9月接任了星巴克首席执行官，他不仅要想办法帮助这家咖啡连锁店在美国重新站稳脚跟，也需要在中国找到解决方案。星巴克在美国有1.7万家门店，去年在美国的营收是267亿美元；在中国有7600家门店，去年在华销售额约合30亿美元。In China, “we need to figure out how we grow in the market now and into the future,” Mr. Niccol told Wall Street analysts on an earnings call in October. That growth could come with the help of a strategic partner, he added.尼科尔今年10月与华尔街分析师举行财报电话会议时说，“我们需要（在中国）找到实现当前和未来增长的办法。”他还表示，可能要在战略合作伙伴的帮助下实现增长。Starbucks declined to make any executives available for this article.星巴克拒绝让任何高管接受本文记者的采访。“We have a world-class team and a strong brand in China, and we see significant long-term growth potential in the market,” Marc Birtel, a spokesman for the company, said in an emailed statement.“我们在中国有一个世界一流团队和一个强大品牌，我们在中国市场看到巨大的长期增长潜力，”公司发言人马克·伯特尔在发给记者的电子邮件中表示。Starbucks is hardly the only foreign company grappling with China. Brands that once looked at the country as a booming growth market are wrestling with slower demand for their products. Consumers remain stubbornly unwilling to spend money, shaken by a real estate crisis and weak labor market that have been a drag on China’s economy.星巴克远非在中国苦苦挣扎的唯一外国公司。许多曾经将中国视为蓬勃发展市场的品牌如今正在努力应对产品需求放缓的问题。中国消费者们仍然缺少花钱意愿，房地产危机和疲软的劳动力市场拖累了中国经济。In early December, General Motors said it would take a more than $5 billion hit to its profits as it restructured its ailing China operations, which have been losing money as its car sales here have dropped sharply. Estée Lauder’s stock tumbled 21 percent in one day after the beauty company cut its dividend and pulled its 2025 forecast because of uncertainty over China’s economy.今年12月初，通用汽车表示，因为在对近年来一直亏损的中国业务进行重组，公司四季度的利润将降低至少50亿美元。随着公司在中国的汽车销量大幅下降，通用汽车的中国业务一直在亏损。雅诗兰黛因中国经济的不确定性撤回了对2025年的预测后，这家美容产品公司的股价在一天内暴跌了21%。In almost all categories, homegrown companies are willing to price their cars, coffee and clothing at steep discounts to crush the competition.本土公司愿意对几乎所有类别的商品大幅降价，让它们的汽车、咖啡、服装在价格上击败竞争对手。Starbucks has diversified its menus in China, offering more milk teas and flavors that cater to local tastes, but they are typically more costly than their competitors and have occasionally missed the mark.星巴克已将其中国菜单多样化，上面有更多迎合当地口味的饮品（如奶茶），但价格通常贵于竞争对手，有时也没能达到目标。Many Newbie trader consumers in China are also eschewing foreign brands in favor of Chinese companies amid a wave of nationalism known as guochao, or Chinese fad. The country’s leaders have a history of dialing up the patriotism with propaganda during moments of tension with other countries. If President-elect Donald J. Trump follows through on his promise to impose tariffs on all products going into the United States from China, the government in Beijing could turn on American brands.受民族主义浪潮影响，许多中国年轻消费者也在避开外国品牌，转向中国品牌，这个现象被称为“国潮”，即中国的潮流风尚。中国领导人在与其他国家关系紧张时动用宣传工具激发爱国主义情绪的做法由来已久。如果候任总统特朗普兑现他的承诺，对所有从中国进入美国的产品加征关税，中国政府可能会把矛头指向美国品牌。In a nod to this, Starbucks, which offers more American-centric drinks like Pumpkin Spice Latte in its stores in China, recently said its business faced risks from “escalating U.S.-China tension and increased anti-Americanism, potential tariff increases, retaliations, restrictive regulations or boycotts, and increasing political sensitivities in China.”星巴克已经意识到这个问题。它的中国门店提供的饮品更多是美国人喜欢的口味（如南瓜拿铁），公司最近表示，其中国业务面临的风险包括“美中紧张关系升级，（中国人的）反美情绪加剧，潜在的提升关税，中国的反制措施、限制性法规或抵制，以及中国日益增长的政治敏感性”。The sense of patriotism is an increasingly important factor for foreign brands, according to Jin Lu, a public relations expert who has worked with many multinational brands in China, including PepsiCo and McKinsey.曾与百事可乐、麦肯锡等多家在华跨国品牌合作的公关专家卢进（音）说，对外国品牌来说，爱国意识是一个越来越重要的因素，“This momentum of China nationalism has grown very, very strong,” Mr. Lu said. “People tend to think: ‘OK, this country is stronger and the second largest economy. Do we really need this foreign investment?’”“中国的民族主义势头已变得非常非常强劲，”卢先生说。“人们往往这样想：‘这个国家更强大了，已经是第二大经济体。我们真的需要外国投资吗？’”At a Starbucks in Hong Kong in December, Liu Ning, 47, who was visiting from the northern Chinese city of Zhengzhou, begrudgingly ordered a matcha latte. He was tired from shopping and needed a place to sit. 今年12月，现年47岁的刘宁（音）不情愿地在香港一家星巴克点了一杯抹茶拿铁。他从中国北方城市郑州来香港玩，逛街逛累了，需要找个地方坐坐。“The coffee at Starbucks tastes terrible and has an industrial feel,” Mr. Liu said. The restaurant was mostly empty except for a few tables occupied by students and some workers on their laptops.“星巴克咖啡的味道很差劲，给人一种工业生产的感觉，”刘先生说。这家店几乎空无一人，除了坐在几张桌边的学生和几个使用笔记本电脑的上班族。But just around the corner, dozens of people stood outside ChaGee, a Starbucks competitor, waiting for Lapsang Souchong tea lattes and Da Hong Pao snowy frappés. They posed in front of the sign and took photos of their red and blue takeaway cups, posting to their social media accounts about the quality and price, which was generally cheaper than drinks from Starbucks.但就在拐角处，几十个人站在星巴克竞争对手霸王茶姬门店外，等着取他们的正山小种茶拿铁和大红袍奶茶。他们在门店招牌前摆姿势，手持红色或蓝色的外带杯自拍，发到社交媒体上，还配有评测和价格信息，霸王茶姬的饮品通常比星巴克的便宜。杭州一家霸王茶姬门店里等待顾客取走的饮品，摄于今年8月。China now has more coffee shops than the United States, according to the World Coffee Portal, a market research firm. The market grew 25 percent from 2018 to 2023, according to Bain & Company estimates.据市场研究公司World Coffee Portal的数据，中国目前的咖啡店数量已超过美国。据贝恩公司估计，中国的咖啡市场在2018到2023年间增长了25%。“Chinese consumers are very spoiled in some ways because it is a very competitive market and all the suppliers are trying to make consumers happy with new launches,” said Nancy Zheng, a partner at Bain in Shanghai.“从某种意义来说，中国消费者被宠坏了，因为中国是一个竞争非常激烈的市场，所有的卖家都在试图推出新产品，取悦消费者，”贝恩上海合伙人郑思远说。Luckin, for instance, goes through about 60 new products each year, offering a new drink every week. Its new coconut latte sells nearly $140 million worth annually, Ms. Zheng said.例如，瑞幸咖啡每年推出约60种新产品，每周推出一款新饮品。瑞幸咖啡的新款椰奶拿铁每年的销售额接近1.4亿美元，郑思远说。With its spacious stores and couches, Starbucks is often still the place where professionals meet to talk deals, students go to study or tired shoppers find respite. This, in some ways, positions Starbucks in a different category from its competitors, which tend to have smaller storefronts that focus on churning out orders made on smartphone apps.星巴克的店面往往更宽敞，里面有沙发，仍是专业人士见面谈生意、学生学习，或疲惫的购物者歇脚的地方。从某种意义上来说，这让星巴克处于与竞争对手不同的层次，后者的店面往往较小，它们关心的是处理顾客用智能手机应用程序下的大量订单。Starbucks is “still a strong brand,” said Fred Hu, founder of the investment firm Primavera Capital and an nonexecutive chairman of Yum China, the exclusive licensee of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands in the country. “There is no reason they cannot succeed going forward.”星巴克“仍然是一个强大的品牌”，投资公司春华资本创始人胡祖六说，他也是百胜中国的非执行董事长，百胜中国是肯德基、必胜客和塔可钟品牌在中国的独家授权商。“没有理由说他们不能在未来取得成功。”“But,” he added, “they do need to make changes.” Those could include finding a local partner or spinning off the China business, as Yum did in 2016. Depending on the direction Mr. Niccol takes, Primavera Capital could be a future suitor for a partnership.“但是，”他补充道，“他们确实需要改变。”这些改变可能包括寻找当地合作伙伴或剥离中国业务，像百胜在2016年做的那样。要看尼科尔采取什么做法，春华资本可能在未来有意收购一个合作伙伴的股份。Whatever Mr. Niccol ends up doing, time may be running out, experts said.专家们说，无论尼科尔最终怎么做，时间可能已经不多了。北京一家喜茶门店外的顾客，摄于2023年9月。This year, Howard Schultz, Starbucks’s former chief executive, insisted that the coffee chain would not enter a price war in China. “As customers become more knowledgeable about coffee, they will want to upgrade from lower-end or discounted products,” he said in a talk at Fudan University in Shanghai. “As long as we continue to earn the market’s respect, they will choose to upgrade to Starbucks.”今年，星巴克前首席执行官霍华德·舒尔茨坚称，这家咖啡连锁店不会加入中国的价格战。“随着顾客对咖啡的了解越来越多，他们会希望从低端或打折产品升级，”他在上海复旦大学发表讲话时说。“只要我们继续在市场上赢得尊重，他们就会选择升级到星巴克来。”At the same time, the company has been trying some of the tactics used by its local competitors. It ramped up promotions and provided coupons throughout much of the summer. The coffee giant also began to follow domestic competitors like Luckin and Cotti into smaller cities. During the Lunar New Year holiday this year, Starbucks released a pork flavor latte. It cost more than $9 and was widely seen as a disaster.与此同时，公司一直在尝试其中国竞争对手使用的一些策略。星巴克中国在整个夏季的大部分时间都在加大促销力度并提供优惠券。这家咖啡巨头也开始效仿瑞幸和库迪等中国境内竞争对手的做法，进入更小的城市。今年春节假期，星巴克中国推出了一款红烧肉拿铁。这款售价68元的饮品被广泛视为一大失败。“They are the first coffee brand in China, so definitely it’s going to be challenging to defend their position because all the new products are taking their customers,” Ms. Zheng said.“星巴克是中国的第一个咖啡品牌，因此捍卫自己的地位肯定会很有挑战性，因为所有新产品都在抢他们的顾客，”郑思远说。Starbucks, she added, has “lost a lot customers to Chinese brands.”她补充道，星巴克的“许多顾客已被中国品牌抢走”。Li You自上海和北京对本文有研究贡献。艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。Julie Creswell是时报商业记者，报道食品行业，撰写有关食品的各个方面的文章，包括农业、食品通胀、供应链中断和气候变化。点击查看更多关于她的信息。Zixu Wang是时报记者/研究员，报道中国大陆和香港的新闻。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 为什么星巴克在中国“糊”了

一本成为习近平精神指南的俄罗斯小说

高安西, SAM CHETWIN GEORGE2024年12月16日 Pool photo by Maxim Shemetov/EPA, via ShutterstockIn late October, while much of the world was focused on the buildup to the U.S. elections, President Xi Jinping of China was issuing a call for global resistance to the American-led world order.10月底，当全世界都在关注逐渐升温的美国选举时，中国国家主席习近平呼吁全球抵制美国主导的世界秩序。Speaking in Kazan, Russia, at the summit of BRICS nations, he told the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran, Egypt and several other countries that the world had entered a pivotal new era “defined by turbulence and transformation.”在俄罗斯喀山举行的金砖国家峰会上，他对巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非、伊朗、埃及和其他几个国家的领导人说，世界已经进入了一个“以动荡和变革为特征”的关键新时代。“Should we allow the world to remain turbulent or push it back on to the right path of peaceful development?” Mr. Xi asked. He invoked, as a spiritual guide for the task ahead, an 1863 Russian novel that glorified revolutionary struggle and inspired Vladimir Lenin.“是任由世界继续动荡，还是推动世界回到和平发展的正确轨道？”习近平问道。他引用了1863年的一部俄罗斯小说作为未来任务的精神指南，这部小说歌颂了革命斗争，并启发了弗拉基米尔·列宁。Mr. Xi has frequently drawn on Russia’s historical and literary tradition to convey his intent to undermine — and ultimately displace — Western ideas and institutions. But by urging a spirit of revolutionary sacrifice within BRICS, a group that is expanding to include new member-states, Mr. Xi is signaling an intent to rally the developing world for an intensified struggle against American power.习近平经常引用俄罗斯的历史和文学传统来表达他破坏——并最终取代——西方思想和制度的意图。但是，通过在金砖国家——一个正不断扩大以纳入新成员的集团——内部倡导革命牺牲精神，习近平正在表明他有意团结发展中世界，以加强与美国力量的斗争。The obscure and radical novel that the Chinese leader cited as his inspiration offers a glimpse into Mr. Xi’s mind-set as he prepares to test Donald Trump’s commitment to the institutions and alliances that underpin the U.S.-led order.随着习近平正准备考验特朗普对支撑美国主导秩序的体制和联盟的承诺，从这本中国领导人作为灵感来源引用的晦涩难懂的激进小说中，可以一窥习近平的心理状态。The book, “What Is to Be Done? Tales of New People,” was written by Nikolai Chernyshevsky in a prison cell in 1862 and 1863, after czarist authorities jailed him for “an evil intent to overthrow the existing order” because of his alleged connections to subversive organizations. The novel is little known in the West, perhaps because its meandering, confusing account of a love triangle in a utopian sewing cooperative is a tough read. The Russian poet Afanasy Fet said that Mr. Chernyshevsky’s real crime was “premeditated affectation of the worst sort in terms of form” and that reading the book was an “almost unbearable” task. One of the authors of this essay can attest to that, having tried and failed to complete it several times while stationed as a journalist in Beijing.这本名为《怎么办？关于新人类的故事》的小说是尼古拉·车尔尼雪夫斯基于1862年和1863年在牢房中写成的，当时他被指控与颠覆组织有联系，沙皇当局以“推翻现有秩序的邪恶意图”为由将他监禁。这部小说在西方鲜为人知，也许是因为它蜿蜒曲折、扑朔迷离地讲述了一个乌托邦式缝纫合作社中的三角恋，读起来十分艰难。俄罗斯诗人阿法纳西·费特表示，车尔尼雪夫斯基真正的罪行是“形式上最糟糕的有预谋的矫揉造作”，读这本书是一件“几乎无法忍受”的事情。这篇文章的作者之一可以证明这一点，他在北京担任记者时曾多次尝试读完这本书，但都以失败告终。The book’s appeal for Mr. Xi lies in its protagonist, Rakhmetov. The scion of a princely family, Rakhmetov rebels against his domineering father at age 16, strengthens his body through hard physical work and moves to St. Petersburg, where he is recruited into an underground group and reborn as an “extraordinary man” — the ultimate revolutionary.这本书对习近平的吸引力在于其中一个叫拉赫梅托夫的主要人物。他是贵族后裔，16岁时反抗专制的父亲，通过艰苦的体力劳动强健体魄，并移居圣彼得堡，在那里他被招募到一个地下组织，重生为一个“非凡的人”——终极的革命者。Rakhmetov renounces good food, wine and women. He reads the classics of philosophy, literature and science. He eschews a mattress and even spends a night on a bed of Profit Takings to test himself, leaving his body covered in blood. He is “completely impervious to personal emotion, possessing no personal heart” and focused purely on doing whatever it takes to achieve his aims.拉赫梅托夫舍弃了美食、美酒和美色。他阅读哲学、文学和科学经典。他不用床垫，甚至为了考验自己，在钉床上过了一夜，弄得浑身是血。他“完全漠视个人情感，没有私心”，只专注于不惜一切代价实现自己的目标。The book’s radical utilitarian ideology roused Lenin, who borrowed the title “What Is to Be Done?” for his own landmark 1902 essay in which he broke with pacifist social democrats in favor of forming a vanguard of aggressive professional revolutionaries.这本书激进的功用主义思想激起了列宁的共鸣，他借用《怎么办？》作为自己在1920年的一篇具有里程碑意义的文章的标题，在文中，他与和平主义的社会民主党人决裂，支持组建一支由积极进取的职业革命者组成的先锋队。It also inspired many of Mao Zedong’s radical Red Guards and the urban youths who answered Mao’s call to live with Chinese peasants in the countryside during the Cultural Revolution. Among these so-called sent-down youths was Mr. Xi. He first read the book as a teenager while living in a cave in rural Shaanxi Province, according to his own account. He was “shocked” by Rakhmetov’s ascetic ways but saw them as ideal for toughening one’s will. Mr. Xi has said he emulated Rakhmetov’s example by removing his mattress, taking cold showers and exercising outside in the rain and snow.它还激励了毛泽东的许多激进红卫兵，以及在文化大革命期间响应毛泽东号召到农村与中国农民一起生活的城市青年。习近平本人就是这些所谓的下放知青之一。据他自己说，他第一次读这本书是在十几岁的时候，当时他住在陕西农村的一个窑洞里。他对拉赫梅托夫的苦行方式感到“震惊”，但认为这是磨练意志的理想方式。习近平曾说过，他以拉赫梅托夫为榜样，舍弃了床垫，洗冷水澡，在雨雪天气进行户外锻炼。Mr. Xi invoked precisely this ethos of sacrifice and fortitude at the BRICS summit, telling other leaders that Rakhmetov’s “unwavering determination and ardent struggle encapsulate exactly the kind of spiritual power we need today. The bigger the storms of our times are, the more we must stand firm at the forefront with unbending determination and pioneering courage.”习近平在金砖国家峰会上呼吁的正是这种牺牲和坚韧的精神，他对其他领导人说，拉赫梅托夫“坚定不移的决心和艰苦奋斗的精神，正是我们今天所需要的精神力量。我们时代的风暴越大，我们就越要以坚定不移的决心和开拓进取的勇气站在最前列”。Perhaps tellingly, China has downplayed the radical nature of Mr. Xi’s program for Western consumption, airbrushing his reference to Rakhmetov out of official English transcripts of his remarks.也许很能说明问题的是，中国在面向西方的介绍中淡化了习近平的计划的激进性质，在习近平讲话的官方英文记录稿中删去了他对拉赫梅托夫的提及。Mr. Xi has been steadily raising the pressure in his effort to undermine U.S. power. In 2022 he declared a “no limits” partnership with Russia and aligned with President Vladimir Putin on his war in Ukraine. He has also been advocating something he calls the “Global Security Initiative,” which serves as the rhetorical and philosophical framework for his plans. It espouses ideals such as “common security” and the protection of each country’s “legitimate security concerns.” But its real purpose seems to be to provide cover for those who would challenge U.S. strategic interests (it has been invoked by China to justify Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine) and, ultimately, protect the interests and political systems of China and its partners from U.S.-imposed constraints.在削弱美国力量的努力中，习近平一直在不断加大压力。2022年，他宣布与俄罗斯建立“没有止境”的伙伴关系，并在乌克兰战争问题上与普京总统保持一致。他还一直在鼓吹他所谓的“全球安全倡议”，这是他的计划的修辞和哲学框架。该倡议拥护“共同安全”和保护各国“正当安全关切”等理想。但它的真正目的似乎是为那些挑战美国战略利益的人提供掩护（中国曾援引该倡议为普京入侵乌克兰辩护），并最终保护中国及其伙伴国的利益和政治制度不受美国的制约。The Chinese leader wants more nations under this banner. In Kazan, he and Mr. Putin repeatedly stressed the importance of security as BRICS welcomed new members such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates — and applicants and observers such as Cuba, Venezuela and the Palestine Liberation Organization. Many of these have their own revolutionary or Leninist roots and need little encouragement to rally against America. As the president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, said en route to the summit, “BRICS can be a way out of American totalitarianism.”中国领导人希望有更多国家加入这一阵营。在喀山，当金砖国家迎来埃及、埃塞俄比亚、伊朗和阿拉伯联合酋长国等新成员，以及古巴、委内瑞拉和巴勒斯坦解放组织等申请国和观察员国时，习近平和普京反复强调了安全的重要性。其中许多国家都有自己的革命或列宁主义根源，不需要什么鼓励就能团结起来反对美国。正如伊朗总统马苏德·佩泽希齐扬在动身前往峰会时所说：“金砖可以成为摆脱美国极权主义的出路。”Mr. Xi recognizes the importance of geopolitical leverage and is weaving together a coalition of authoritarians. He has entrenched China’s partnership with Russia, strengthened support for Iran during its proxy wars with Israel and refrained from criticizing China’s sole official ally — North Korea — over its deployment of troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. China has worked to repair previously frayed ties with countries such as India, Vietnam and Brazil, and is strengthening other relationships across the developing world.习近平认识到地缘政治影响力的重要性，并正在编织一个威权者联盟。他巩固了中国与俄罗斯的伙伴关系，在伊朗与以色列的代理战争中加强了对伊朗的支持，并避免批评中国唯一的官方盟友朝鲜出兵支持俄罗斯的乌克兰战争。中国努力修复与印度、越南和巴西等国之前破裂的关系，并在加强与其他发展中国家的关系。Mr. Xi appears to believe momentum is on his side. Mr. Trump, on the other hand, comes into office with U.S. capabilities stretched by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. He has surrounded himself with a mix of isolationists and China hawks while sowing doubt about America’s commitment to allies and partners such as Ukraine and Taiwan.习近平似乎相信目前的势头有利于他。另一方面，特朗普上台正值美国的能力因中东和乌克兰的冲突而捉襟见肘之际。他的周围既有孤立主义者，也有对华鹰派，同时他的言论也让人们怀疑美国是否会坚守对乌克兰和台湾等盟友和伙伴的承诺。Mr. Xi previewed his stiffened posture at an Asia-Pacific summit in Lima, Peru, last month in comments that were clearly aimed at the incoming U.S. president. He listed a series of “red lines” that “cannot be challenged,” including staying out of Beijing’s territorial disputes in the South China Sea and insisting that Washington “support” China’s goal of unification with Taiwan — wording that goes well beyond what the United States has committed to for decades.上个月在秘鲁利马举行的亚太峰会上，习近平发表了明显针对即将上任的美国总统的言论，预示了他的强硬姿态。他列出了一系列“不容挑战”的“红线”，包括不介入北京在南海的领土争端，坚持要求华盛顿“支持”中国统一台湾的目标——这些措辞远远超出了美国几十年来的承诺。Mr. Putin remains an essential partner to Mr. Xi. Russian state media reported this year that Mr. Putin planned to give the Chinese leader an old copy of Chernyshevsky’s book for his birthday in June, and he staged the BRICS summit in the Tatarstan region, Rakhmetov’s ancestral home. The two men met in October at the Kazan Kremlin, which sits at the end of what was once named Chernyshevsky Road.普京仍然是习近平不可或缺的合作伙伴。俄罗斯国家媒体今年报道称，普京计划在今年6月习近平生日时送给他一本车尔尼雪夫斯基作品的旧本，他还把金砖国家峰会放在了拉赫梅托夫的祖居地鞑靼斯坦地区举行。今年10月，两人在喀山克里姆林宫会面，那里位于曾被命名为车尔尼雪夫斯基路的道路的尽头。But there is no mistaking who is in charge here. It is Mr. Xi who is assuming the mantle of Rakhmetov — the “extraordinary man,” the agent of history — and believes his iron will and visionary leadership will deliver the world from American turbulence.但是，实际谁说了算是无可置疑的。习近平正在继承拉赫梅托夫的衣钵——“非凡的人”、历史的推动者——并相信他的钢铁意志和高瞻远瞩的领导力将把世界从美国的动荡中解救出来。高安西(John Garnaut)是地缘政治风险咨询公司Garnaut Global的联合创始人。他曾任《悉尼先驱晨报》驻华记者，并担任澳大利亚前总理马尔科姆·特恩布尔的高级顾问，著有《薄熙来家族的起落》。Sam Chetwin George是Garnaut Global中国研究主任，也是也是文化刊物《中国遗产》(China Heritage)的研究员。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 一本成为习近平精神指南的俄罗斯小说

中国宣布货币政策转向“适度宽松”，应对经济挑战

KEITH BRADSHER2024年12月10日中国的中共中央政治局周一宣布了一系列旨在提振经济的措施。 Adek Berry/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesChina’s ruling Politburo loosened the country’s overall monetary policy on Monday for the first time in 14 years, the latest in a series of measures aimed at recharging economic growth and stopping a broad decline in prices.中国最高权力机构中共中央政治局周一宣布放宽货币政策，这是14年来的第一次，也是政治局为刺激经济增长、阻止物价普遍下跌所采取的一系列措施中的最新举措。In a statement, the Politburo said that it would embrace a “moderately loose” policy, shifting away from a longstanding “prudent” stance — a signal that the country’s central bank will be more willing to reduce interest rates in the coming year. It also means the central bank may be more open to commercial banks holding smaller reserves while extending more and larger loans.政治局在声明中称将实施“适度宽松”的货币政策，改变了其长期以来的“稳健”立场。这是一个信号，表明中国央行明年将更积极地降低利率，也意味着央行可能会对降低商业银行存款准备金、允许它们发放更多数额更大的贷款持更开放的态度。The Politburo also called for a more proactive fiscal policy, which means that the government will be more willing to increase its own spending. It further suggested that the government would “strengthen extraordinary countercyclical measures,” an indication that the authorities may plan further steps to halt the erosion in economic growth rates.政治局还提出要实施更加积极的财政政策，意味着政府将更愿意增加自身的支出。政治局进一步表示，政府将“加强超常规逆周期调节”，表明当局可能计划采取进一步措施来阻止经济增长率的下降。The Politburo said that it was approving several measures at the same time in order to deliver a policy “combination punch” to address China’s economic challenges.政治局表示，采取这些多管齐下的措施是为了“打好政策‘组合拳’”，解决中国面临的经济挑战，Taken together, the steps announced on Monday amounted to a rare public acknowledgment that Beijing needed to a take a stronger hand in addressing the country’s economic weakness.总体而言，周一宣布的这些措施标志着中国政府罕见地公开承认需要更强有力地应对国内经济疲软。The Politburo’s announcements came ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference on Wednesday and Thursday, when the Chinese Communist Party and the cabinet set the country’s economic agenda for the upcoming year.政治局的公告发布是在本周三、四的中央经济工作会议之前，中共和国务院将在这个年度会议上制定来年的国家经济议程。The conference is expected to reaffirm the Politburo’s stance and possibly also call for modest increases in government spending, particularly to help the elderly and very poor. But few economists expect the authorities to expand the budget deficit by enacting a very large increase in government aid to consumers. China has put more emphasis instead lately on helping manufacturers to build more high-tech factories.预计政治局提出的措施将在今年的中央经济工作会议上得到再次确定，会议可能要求适度增加政府支出，尤其是在帮助老年人和极度贫困人口方面。但几乎没有经济学家认为当局会使用政府向消费者提供大幅补贴的做法来扩大预算赤字。中国近来更加重视帮助制造商建设更多的高技术工厂。The Politburo issued its statement after stock markets had closed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with prices little changed, but while trading was still underway in Hong Kong. Shares there jumped after the announcement: The Hang Seng Index finished up 2.8 percent, its best day in weeks.政治局在上海和深圳的股市收盘后宣布了上述举措，这两个股市的股指几乎没有变化，但香港的股市仍在交易中。政治局的声明发布后，香港股市大涨：恒生指数在收盘时上涨了2.8%，这是数周来的最大单日涨幅。Monday’s statement did not provide many details, including any specific sums of money to be spent or by how much interest rates may change. Even after the economic conference concludes, officials may not enact some large, highly specific policies until the national legislature gathers on March 5 for its annual, roughly weeklong session.周一宣布的举措中没有太多细节，没有具体的支出金额或利率变化幅度。即使在中央经济工作会议结束之后，官员们可能也不会在明年3月5日之前颁布某些高度具体的大型政策，届时全国人民代表大会将召开为期约一周的年度会议。The last change in overall monetary policy was on Dec. 3, 2010, with a shift to a “prudent” stance. It was widely seen as a statement that the Chinese economy had rebounded strongly from the global financial crisis.中国上次调整货币政策是在2010年12月3日，转向“稳健”立场。那次调整被普遍视为中国经济从全球金融危机中强健恢复的迹象。Many economists inside and outside of China are skeptical that looser monetary policy will turn around the economy. The main problem lies in weak consumer spending: The middle class has lost much of its savings in a real estate crash over the last three years, and many people have become reluctant to spend on things like new cars and restaurant meals.中国国内外的许多经济学家对放宽货币政策能否扭转经济发展趋势持怀疑态度。中国经济的主要问题在于消费支出疲软：房地产市场在过去三年崩盘，导致中产阶级失去了他们的大部分积蓄，许多人变得不愿意在购买新车、去餐厅就餐等方面花钱。While the gains in Hong Kong share trading suggested that the Politburo’s action may strengthen mainland markets, the economic benefits may be muted. Chinese households have less than 2 percent of their assets in stocks, versus around 70 percent in real estate.虽然香港股市当天的上涨表明政治局的决定也许对内地股市来说是利好，但给中国经济带来的好处可能不大。股票在中国家庭资产中的占比不到2%，而房地产约占为70%。A looser monetary policy may also give a small lift to the bond market, because bond prices rise when interest rates fall. But Chinese households don’t hold many bonds, either — it is mainly banks that hold bonds in China.宽松的货币政策也可能给债券市场带来小幅提振，因为债券价格会在利率下降时上涨。但中国家庭持有的债券也不多，中国的债券主要由银行持有。And even if banks have more money to lend at slightly lower interest rates, there’s just not much demand by businesses or consumers to borrow money at all.即使银行有更多的钱，以更低的利率发放贷款，但企业或消费者也没有太大的借贷需求。The Politburo’s statement came hours after the government disclosed that consumer prices in November were up 0.2 percent from a year earlier, a smaller increase than analysts expected.在政治局做出上述宣布的几小时前，政府公布了今年11月份的消费者价格指数，该指数与去年同期相比上涨了0.2%，低于分析师们的预期。Producer prices — the wholesale prices charged by factories, mines, farms and other enterprises — were down 2.5 percent last month from a year earlier. Broadly falling prices, a phenomenon known as deflation, can be crippling for an economy, as companies and households find it hard to make fixed interest payments on bank loans and bonds.工厂、矿山、农场和其他企业向生产者收取的批发价格上月同比下降了2.5%。价格普遍下跌是一种被称为通货紧缩的现象，可能会给经济造成严重破坏，因为企业和家庭难以支付银行贷款和债券的固定利息。Li You对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。  https://feedx.site

Source: 中国宣布货币政策转向“适度宽松”，应对经济挑战

笔墨写自由：为大都会博物馆“写大字”的台湾书法家

ZACHARY SMALL2024年11月12日The boulders hiding in the alcove of Tong Yang-Tze’s apartment testify to this Taiwanese calligrapher’s daunting perfectionism.在董阳孜的公寓，藏在角落的纸堆证明了这位台湾书法家对完美令人生畏的追求。They are paper — remnants of discarded artworks, crumpled together like used tissues and soaked into inky wads of pulp. Hundreds of old drafts of writing, including many of her efforts to draw Chinese poetry at monumental scale, have been recycled into these rocks over the years, most recently as she worked on her commission for the Metropolitan Museum of Art, which will debut on Nov. 21. Curators call it the most important showing of calligraphy in the United States by a woman in recent memory and say it will bridge the art form from its ancient history to the 21st century.它们是废弃的艺术作品，像用过的纸巾一样皱成一团，墨汁将它们浸透，成了一团团带着黑斑的纸浆。多年来，成千上万的草稿——包括以巨幅尺寸书写中国诗歌的尝试——变成了这些故纸堆。最近的一次尝试是她受大都会艺术博物馆委托所创作的作品，将于11月21日亮相。策展人表示，这是近年来美国最有分量的女性书法家作品展，并表示，它将把这一艺术形式从古代带入21世纪。Earlier this fall, Tong, who is 81, unfurled scrolls on the floor of her Taipei apartment, pushing furniture to the walls before dipping a comically large brush into a mixing bowl filled with velvety black ink. She was preparing designs for the two paintings that will hang from the Met’s iconic entryway, the Great Hall. The texts consisted of sayings from poets born thousands of years ago, delivering messages about values like pragmatism and morality. But in the hands of a master calligrapher like Tong, the Chinese characters are also imbued with nuance — no two characters are ever the same — and moxie, in her supersized work. “Here in Taiwan, the immense freedom has allowed me to focus singlemindedly on developing my art,” she said.今年秋天早些时候，81岁的董阳孜在她台北公寓的地板上展开一卷卷纸，家具已经推到了墙边，她将一支大得可笑的毛笔浸入装着柔滑墨汁的碗里。她正在为将悬挂在大都会艺术博物馆标志性入口大厅的两幅作品打稿。这些诗句都出自千百年前的诗人之手，传达了关于实用主义和道德等价值观的信息。但在董阳孜这样的书法大师手中，汉字也充满了微妙的不同——没有两个字是一样的——在她的巨幅作品中也是如此。“在台湾，无限的自由让我可以一心一意去钻研我的艺术，”她说。董阳孜在台北的工作室展示她为大型书法作品绘制的草图，摄于9月。她在网上找到了超大号的毛笔。And then, she dances. Heaving the giant brush across the 280-square-foot picture plane with shocking speed, Tong drew the Chinese characters that she has studied her entire lifetime. She was building on the lineage of old masters like Yan Zhenqing, an eighth-century calligrapher, military general and governor of the Tang Dynasty, attempting to revive a dying practice by making it contemporary, political and distinctly Taiwanese.然后，她开始舞动起来。在26平方米的纸张上，她以惊人的速度挥动着巨大的毛笔，写下她一生都在研究的汉字。她师法八世纪的书法家、唐朝武将和地方官颜真卿这样的大师，试图借助现代性、政治性和鲜明的台湾特色的融入，来复兴这一行将消亡的艺术。“I owe my artistic career to Taiwan,” Tong said, speaking through a translator.“我把我的艺术生涯归功于台湾，”董阳孜通过翻译说道。Considered one of her country’s most important artists, Tong was born in 1942 in Shanghai, on the mainland. She and her brother and parents moved to Taiwan (then called Formosa) in 1952, several years after Mao Zedong established the People’s Republic of China, forcing Chiang Kai-shek and his anti-Communist followers in government to leave for Taiwan. Three of Tong’s sisters stayed behind with an aunt, which led to decades of separation because of Taiwan’s volatile relationship with China. With an American friend’s help, they were able to arrange for her siblings to travel to Hong Kong to reunite briefly with the rest of the family after President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972.董阳孜是台湾最重要的书法家之一，1942年出生在中国大陆的上海。1952年，她随父母和弟弟移居台湾（当时称福尔摩沙），几年前，毛泽东建立了中华人民共和国，迫使蒋介石及其反共追随者前往台湾。董阳孜的三位姐妹与一位姑姑留在大陆，两岸的动荡关系导致了她们长达数十年的分离。1972年尼克松总统访问中国后，在一位美国朋友的帮助下，他们得以安排一家人在香港短暂团聚。Tong pursued calligraphy to pass the time, gravitating toward the bold linework of Yan instead of the examples of softer styles usually recommended to Newbie trader girls of her time. Her father required her to practice writing 100 large characters and 200 small characters every day, starting in fourth grade.董阳孜小时候以练书法消磨时间，她的习字更接近遒劲有力的颜体，而不是那个时代的年轻女孩通常被推荐学习的柔美字体。她的父亲要求她从小学四年级起每天练习写100个大字和200个小字。It was the kind of artistic education that Tong said had largely vanished from mainland Chinese schools because of politics, with calligraphy practices left to the rarefied pursuit of artists and scholars (though in recent years, China has put a new emphasis on calligraphy in an attempt to reassert “traditional” Chinese culture). Taiwan continued to use the traditional characters, rather than the simplified characters the mainland uses, and taught calligraphy in its public schools for many decades, but the practice of calligraphy has been fading.董阳孜说，出于政治原因，这种艺术教育在中国大陆的学校曾经基本消失，练习书法仅限于艺术家和学者的高雅追求（虽然在近年，中国重新重视书法，试图恢复传统文化的地位）。台湾一直使用的是繁体字，而不是大陆使用的简体字，而且数十年来，公立学校一直教授书法——虽然也已逐渐式微。And globally, the number of people familiar with calligraphy is vanishing. Tong observed that most Newbie trader Chinese speakers use electronic devices to automatically generate characters through transcription or by using English phonetics to prompt the characters.在全球范围内，熟悉书法的人越来越少。董阳孜注意到，大多数说中文的年轻人都是在电子设备上透过注音符号或英文字母写字。“I think nowadays people have gotten lazier,” said the artist, who spends the majority of her waking hours at work.“我认为现代人变懒了，”这位艺术家说道，除了睡觉，她的大部分时间都花在了工作上。Calligraphy is an instinctive practice for Tong. She develops her “word paintings” from small reference drawings that anticipate where every drop of ink will land on the scrolls. But she often compares herself to a jazz musician whose music is constantly changing. No two brushstrokes are alike, infusing her practice with a sense of spontaneity.对于董阳孜来说，书法是一种本能之道。她发展出的“字画”从小幅的速写参照入手，明确了每一滴墨水将落在卷轴上的位置。但她经常把自己比作爵士乐人，音乐不断变化。没有两笔是相同的，这为她的作品注入了一种即兴成分。董阳孜在台北家中的工作室。 用于创作的各种毛笔。 “Everything happens in your mind,” the artist explained. “You just express it.”“所有的一切都发生在你的脑海中，”这位艺术家解释道。“你只是将它表达出来。”Given the size of her artworks — one of the biggest is a hand scroll measuring 6 feet by 170 feet — and the limited space in her apartment studio, everything must happen in rotation. The artist shifts around different portions of her scrolls as she works, unable to see the result until weeks later, when she rents a local warehouse to unroll several artworks at once. Sometimes, when she doesn’t like what she sees, she discards the calligraphy, adding to her collection of 17 boxes of the paper boulders, and starting again.考虑到她的作品篇幅——其中最大的一件达到180×5200厘米——以及她公寓工作室的空间有限，一切都必须依次进行。创作的时候，卷轴的不同部分依次打开，几周过后才会看到最后的结果。有时候，她不喜欢最后的成品，就会将其作废，放进17个纸箱中，然后从头开始创作。“She wrote more than 40 drafts for the Great Hall commission,” said Lesley Ma, the Met’s associate curator of Asian Art in the department of Modern and Contemporary Art, who selected Tong for the project. “And she is always anxious because maybe she wrote something in September, but is not able to see it until October. She looks for what is right and what is wrong.”“她为大都会大厅的委约写了40多稿，”大都会艺术博物馆的现当代艺术部亚洲艺术副策展人马唯中说。“她总是很焦虑，可能是因为她9月份写的东西要到10月份才能看到最后的成品。她在寻找什么是对的，什么是错的。”That level of uncertainty — bringing the possibility of failure — is what worried Tong’s father when his daughter announced her intention to become a calligrapher and to study Western art by traveling to the United States in the late 1960s. At the time, calligraphy was made mostly for gifts and favors, not as salable artworks. But Tong continued on her path, arriving at the Brooklyn Museum Art School in 1967 and graduating with an M.F.A. in painting from the University of Massachusetts Amherst in 1970. In the United States, she was inspired to start painting at a monumental scale after she saw works by artists like Matisse, whose “Dance (1) ” she admired for its energy and purity. She also felt a sense of competition looking at the gestural paintings of Abstract Expressionists like Willem de Kooning and Franz Kline, in which she saw the linework of calligraphy.这种不确定性——存在失败的可能性——正是董阳孜的父亲在她宣布打算成为一名书法家、并于上世纪60年代末前往美国学习西方艺术时所担忧的。当时，书法主要用于赠礼和人情，而不是可以销售的艺术品。然而，董阳孜坚持走这条路，1967年来到布鲁克林博物馆艺术学校，并于1970年在马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校获得绘画硕士学位。在美国，她受到启发，开始创作大尺幅的绘画作品，尤其是在看到马蒂斯的作品《舞蹈（1）》后，作品传达出的能量和纯粹让她仰慕。她在观看威廉·德库宁和弗朗茨·克莱因等抽象表现主义者的动势绘画时，也感受到了一种竞争感，因为她在其中看到了书法的线条。“I will show you,” she remembers thinking.“我会让你们涨涨见识，”她记得当时自己这么想。董阳孜在台北市立美术馆回顾展上的作品目录。这是她2011年的书法作品《鸢飞戾天，鱼跃于渊》。Tong returned to Taiwan and subsidized her artistic practice with commissions, designing the visual signage at train stations and bookshops, for dance troupes and jazz musicians, and even adding Chinese characters to a Chanel anniversary ad campaign. Her work hangs in Taipei’s Songshan Airport and the city’s National Concert Hall, a sprawling arts complex.董阳孜回到台湾，通过接受委约来支持自己的艺术创作，她设计火车站和书店的视觉标识，为舞蹈团体和爵士乐手创作，甚至为香奈儿的周年庆广告加入汉字。她的作品悬挂在台北的松山机场和国家音乐厅——一座庞大的艺术综合体。In 2013, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs invited her to create the country’s passport stamp, an honor that she humorously downplayed as easy work.2013年，台湾外交部邀请她设计台湾的护照印章，面对这一殊荣，她幽默地说，这是一项很容易的工作。“The characters were very regular,” she shrugged. “Not many people in Taiwan know that my calligraphy is on the passport stamp. I didn’t even discuss it with my brother. It is only when I go through customs that the immigration officers see my name and know it was me.”“这些字非常规整，”她耸耸肩。“在台湾，没有多少人知道护照印章上是我的书法。我甚至都没和我的兄弟说过。只有当过海关时，移民官员看到我的名字才知道是我。”董阳孜在翻看颜真卿灯中国著名书法家的作品，她经常在他们的作品中寻找灵感。Thanks to those commissions, Tong became world famous without a presence in the art market.由于这些委托，董阳孜虽然没有在艺术市场上出现，但却闻名世界。Tong is hoping to recapture that boldness with the commission at the Met Museum. She has been thinking about her American audience, which probably has little exposure to calligraphy, and of her Chinese audience — which accounts for nearly four percent of the museum’s international visitors. (Before the pandemic, almost 10 percent of those visitors were Chinese.)董阳孜希望在大都会博物馆委托作品中重新找回这种肆意。她一直在考虑她的美国受众，他们可能很少接触书法，还有她的中国受众，他们占博物馆国际游客的近4%。（疫情爆发前，近10%的游客是中国人。）From nine different texts, the artist ultimately chose two for the Great Hall. One was inspired by the Book of Songs written nearly 3,000 years ago: “Stones from other mountains can refine our jade.” According to Ma, the phrase was traditionally interpreted to mean that talents from another country can be useful to one’s own. Modern interpretations have shifted to reflect on how accepting differences can help us improve.她从九幅不同的字中最终选择了两幅作为大厅展品。其中一幅来自近3000年前的《诗经》：“他山之石，可以攻玉。”据马唯中说，这句话传统上被解释为来自另一个国家的人才可以对自己有用。现代的解释已经转向反思接受差异如何能帮助我们进步。The other adage was written by the poet-scholar Su Shi in 1100 about his creative process: “Go where it is right, stop when one must” — a saying that reminds the reader to have self-awareness and practice moral restraint.另一句格言是诗人学者苏轼在1100年所写，是关于创作过程的：“行于其所当行，止于其不得不止”——这句话提醒观者要有自知之明，要有道德约束。董阳孜的大型书法作品的参考草稿。下方为正在创作中的作品。For Tong, who has memorized hundreds of sayings, the phrases hold personal meaning. But she said she selected these texts to help people find their places in the world, expressing a desire to reach tourists from mainland China.对于熟记数百句这样的话语的董阳孜来说，它们具有个人意义。但她说，她选择这些文字是为了帮助人们找到自己在世界上的位置，并表达了吸引中国大陆游客的愿望。“I chose these words for the people who will read the works,” the artist said, adding that these visitors “will think about what the meaning is because they haven’t seen these words in a long time.” And now that they have started to read, she added, “they can reflect upon how to be a man, how to be a citizen, how to be free.”“我选择这些文字是给那些会阅读这些作品的人，”艺术家说，她还说，这些观者“会思考文字的含义，因为他们很长时间没有看到这些文字了。”她还说，既然他们已经开始阅读，“他们就可以反思如何做一个人，如何做一个公民，如何获得自由。”摄影：许安荣Zachary Small是《纽约时报》记者，撰写关于艺术界与金钱、政治和技术关系的文章。点击查看更多关于他的信息。翻译：Duran、晋其角点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 笔墨写自由：为大都会博物馆“写大字”的台湾书法家

特朗普打击移民危及美国科技行业

保罗·克鲁格曼2024年11月26日Will business prosper under a second Donald Trump presidency? As far as I can tell, many business leaders are pinning their hopes on the belief that he won’t actually follow through on his campaign pledges on tariffs and mass deportation — that they’ll be like his border wall, which, for the most part, he never built but claimed he had.在特朗普的第二个总统任期内，商业会繁荣吗？据我所知，许多商界领袖都把希望寄托在这样一个信念上，即特朗普不会真去兑现他在竞选时做出的关税和大规模驱逐出境的承诺，就像他承诺的边境墙一样——基本上就是，他从未修建边境墙，却言之凿凿他修了。But I believe that such optimism is misplaced. Trump’s obsessions with tariffs and immigration go way back, and he probably won’t respond well if people ridicule him for not delivering on his signature policy ideas.但我认为这种乐观是错误的。特朗普对关税和移民的痴迷可以追溯到很久以前，如果人们嘲笑他没有兑现标志性的政策主张，他可能会很不高兴。If he does not moderate his policies, the damage will be considerable — bigger than even pessimists realize. Hostility to immigrants won’t just create labor shortages for many grueling manual jobs that native-born Americans are reluctant to do. It will also undermine American leadership in technology.如果他不对自己的政策做出调整，损害将是巨大的，甚至比持悲观态度的人所意识到的还要大。对移民的敌意不仅会造成许多土生土长的美国人不愿从事的艰苦体力工作的劳动力短缺，还将破坏美国在科技领域的领先地位。As you may know, Trump has declared his intention to declare a national emergency and deploy the military to help round up huge numbers of undocumented immigrants, initially placing them in what Stephen Miller, one of his top immigration advisers, has called “vast holding facilities.”正如大家可能知道的，特朗普已做出表态，打算宣布国家进入紧急状态，并部署军队帮助抓捕大量无证移民，他们将首先被安置在他的高级移民顾问之一斯蒂芬·米勒所称的“庞大的拘留设施”中。Such actions would be a humanitarian and civil liberties nightmare. But these considerations probably won’t deter Trump. If anything, he may welcome an uproar because it would make him look strong and decisive.这样的行动将是人道主义和公民自由的噩梦。但这些考量可能不会阻止特朗普。甚至可以说，像这样的骚动是他求之不得的，因为这会让他看起来强大又果断。The economic impact may be another matter. Mass deportations would create shortages and raise prices in industries that employ large numbers of undocumented immigrants (plus workers legally here who might be caught up in the dragnets), including agriculture, meatpacking and construction.经济影响可能是另一个问题。大规模驱逐将导致雇佣大量无证移民的行业（加上可能被卷入拉网行动的合法工人）出现劳动力短缺并推高价格，这些行业包括农业、肉类加工业和建筑业。I honestly don’t know how all this would play out, and I doubt that anyone does. Would it be ugly? Or would it be very ugly?老实说，我不知道这一切会如何发展，我怀疑没有人知道。这会很糟糕吗？还是会极其糟糕？Beyond these near-term effects, however, there’s a likely consequence of Trumpism that hasn’t received a lot of attention: the threat that it will pose to American technological leadership.然而，除了这些短期影响之外，还有一个特朗普主义可能带来的后果尚未得到太多关注：它对美国科技领导地位的威胁。Our technology sector is the wonder of the world. Circa 1995, the world’s major wealthy economies all seemed to be on roughly the same technological level, with similar levels of productivity; if Europe had lower levels of real G.D.P. per capita, one of the main reasons was that Europeans work fewer hours, because unlike us, they take real vacations.我们的科技行业是世界的奇迹。1995年前后，世界主要富裕经济体似乎都处于大致相同的科技水平，生产力水平也相差无几；如果说欧洲的实际人均GDP水平较低，一个主要原因是欧洲人的工作时间更短，因为与我们不同，他们有真的在度假。But as a recent report for the European Commission by Mario Draghi, a former president of the European Central Bank, points out, America has pulled ahead again in recent decades. What I find interesting about this U.S. surge is that it isn’t broadly based: Europeans do most things about as well as we do. Instead, it’s all about America taking the lead in digital technology.但正如欧洲央行前行长马里奥·德拉吉最近向欧盟委员会提交的一份报告所指出的那样，美国在最近几十年再度领先。我发现美国这一进步的有趣之处在于，它的基础并不广泛：欧洲人在大多数事情上做得都和我们一样好。相反，美国居于领先地位的是在数码科技方面。What’s driving that success story? No doubt it has multiple causes, not least the network externalities created by the technology cluster in Silicon Valley, which has incredibly high per capita income. But spend time in America’s tech hubs, and it becomes obvious that immigrants — often highly educated immigrants from South Asia and East Asia — are also a key part of the story.是什么推动了这个成功故事？毫无疑问，原因是多方面的，尤其是人均收入高得惊人的硅谷科技集群所创造的网络外部性。但在美国的科技中心呆上一段时间后，就会发现移民——通常是来自南亚和东亚的受过高等教育的移民——显然也是这个故事的关键组成。Well, you may say, that shouldn’t be an issue. MAGA’s antipathy is aimed at undocumented immigrants taking blue-collar jobs, not tech wizards from India, right?那么，你可能会说，这不是问题所在。“让美国恢复伟大荣光”运动的不满所针对的是从事蓝领工作的无证移民，而不是来自印度的科技奇才，对吧？Wrong.错。The first Trump administration was clearly hostile to legal, highly educated immigrants as well as undocumented blue-collar workers. It made getting or renewing visas significantly harder for high-skilled foreigners, which is the main way they can work here. And many of these workers fear that these policies will return, only worse.除了无证蓝领工人，上一任特朗普政府显然也敌视受过高等教育的合法移民。它大大增加了高技能外国人获得或续签签证的难度，而这正是他们在这里工作的主要路径。其中许多人担心这些政策会卷土重来，只是情况会更糟。If you want a sense of what Trump’s inner circle probably believes, it’s worth looking at a 2016 conversation between Miller and Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump ally who was released from prison in time to campaign for Trump. Bannon declared that legal immigration is the real problem, denouncing the “oligarchs” bringing in foreigners to do I.T. jobs he believes should go to Americans. “Well, that was brilliantly stated,” replied Miller.如果你想了解特朗普核心圈子的真实想法，不妨看看米勒和史蒂夫·班农在2016年的一段对话，班农是特朗普的长期盟友，出狱后刚好来得及为特朗普助选。班农宣称，合法移民才是真正的问题所在，谴责“寡头”引进外国人从事他认为应该由美国人从事的IT工作。“嗯，这说得真好，”米勒回答。Will it matter that some of these oligarchs, most notably Elon Musk, were big Trump supporters? Probably less than they think. Historically, oligarchs who imagine that they have bought influence with an authoritarian leader discover that they are far more dependent on his good will than he is on their money. My guess is that Musk, in particular, will soon learn that he needs Trump more than Trump needs him.其中一些寡头是特朗普的忠实支持者，最著名的要数埃隆·马斯克，这重要吗？可能没有他们想象的那么重要。从历史上看，寡头们如果以为自己从威权领导人那里买到了影响力，就会发现他们对后者善意的依赖远远大于后者对其金钱的依赖。我猜，马斯克很快就会明白，他需要特朗普多于特朗普需要他。So I’ll be very surprised if the turn against immigrants spares highly educated workers. Specific policies aside, one reason America has been so successful at attracting the world’s best and brightest is the openness of our society; more, perhaps, than any other nation, we have been a place where people from different cultures can feel welcome. That era may come to an end.因此，如果反对移民的浪潮没有波及受过高等教育的人，我会感到非常惊讶。撇开具体的政策不谈，美国之所以成功吸引了世界上最优秀、最聪明的人才，其中一个原因是我们社会的开放性；也许，与其他任何国家相比，我们一直是一个让不同文化背景的人感到受欢迎的地方。那个时代可能要结束了。For the next couple of years, the proposed rCorporate debt and detention facilities would probably dominate the news, and rightly so. But a decade from now we may also be acutely aware that by turning on immigrants, we undermined the technology sector, one of the things that actually makes America great.在接下来的几年里，拟议中的突击搜查和拘留设施可能会占据新闻头条，这是理所当然的。但十年后，我们可能也会深切意识到，通过对移民的攻击，我们破坏了科技行业，而它是使美国伟大的原因之一。保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)自2000年以来一直是时报的专栏作家。他也是纽约市立大学研究生中心的杰出教授。克鲁格曼因在国际贸易和经济地理方面的成就获得2008年诺贝尔经济学奖。欢迎在Twitter上关注他： @PaulKrugman。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 特朗普打击移民危及美国科技行业