谈还是打？特朗普的伊朗问题决断时刻

DAVID E. SANGER, JONATHAN SWAN2025年6月18日逃离德黑兰的伊朗人在加油站排起了长队，摄于周一。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesWASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is weighing a critical decision in the days-old war between Israel and Iran: whether to enter the fray by helping Israel destroy the deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, which only America’s biggest “bunker buster,” dropped by U.S. B-2 bombers, can reach.华盛顿——特朗普总统正在权衡一个关键决定：是否介入以色列和伊朗之间已进行了几天的战斗，帮助以色列摧毁位于伊朗福尔多深埋地下的铀浓缩设施——这只有美国的B-2战略轰炸机投掷的巨型钻地弹“碉堡克星”才可以做到。If he decides to go ahead, the United States will become a direct participant in a new conflict in the Middle East, taking on Iran in exactly the kind of war Trump has sworn, in two campaigns, he would avoid. Iranian officials have warned that U.S. participation in an attack on its facilities will imperil any remaining chance of the nuclear disarmament deal that Trump insists he is still interested in pursuing.如果特朗普决定那样做的话，美国将成为中东地区一场新冲突的直接参与者，与伊朗进行一场他在两次总统大选中都誓言要避免的那种战争。伊朗官员们已警告称，若美国参与打击伊朗设施的行动，将彻底扼杀特朗普声称自己仍有意推进的核裁军协议残存的希望。Trump has encouraged Vice President JD Vance and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to offer to meet the Iranians this week, according to a U.S. official. The offer may be well received, and Trump said Monday that “I think Iran basically is at the negotiating table, they want to make a deal.”据一名美国官员称，特朗普已鼓励副总统万斯和白宫中东特使史蒂夫·维特科夫提出本周与伊朗人见面的建议。该提议也许会获得积极回应，特朗普周一曾表示，“我认为伊朗基本上已坐到谈判桌上来，他们想达成协议。”The urgency appeared to be rising. The White House announced late Monday that Trump was leaving the Group of 7 summit early because of the situation in the Middle East.谈判的紧迫性似乎正在与日俱增。白宫在周一晚些时候宣布，由于中东局势，特朗普将提前离开七国集团峰会。“As soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something,” Trump said. “But I have to leave here.”“我一离开这里，我们就会干点什么，”特朗普说。“但我需要先离开这里。”What he intended to do remained unclear.他打算做什么仍不清楚。If Vance and Witkoff did meet with the Iranians, officials say, the likely Iranian interlocutor would be the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who played a key role in the 2015 nuclear deal with the Obama administration and knows every element of Iran’s sprawling nuclear complex. Araghchi, who has been Witkoff’s counterpart in recent negotiations, signaled his openness to a deal Monday, saying in a statement, “If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential.”官员们说，如果万斯和维特科夫的确与伊朗方面举行了会晤的话，对方最有可能出面的是外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇。他曾在2015年与奥巴马政府达成核协议上起过关键作用，对伊朗庞大的核设施了如指掌。最近几轮谈判一直在阿拉格奇和维特科夫之间进行，阿拉格奇周一已发信号表示对达成协议持开放态度，他在一份声明中说，“如果特朗普总统真心实意地致力于外交，有意停止这场战争的话，后续行动将至关重要。”“It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu,” he said, referring to the Israeli prime minister. “That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy.”“来自华盛顿的一个电话就能把内塔尼亚胡这样的人管住，”他提到以色列总理时说。“那也许为重返外交铺平道路。”But if that diplomatic effort fizzles, or the Iranians remain unwilling to give in to Trump’s central demand that they must ultimately end all uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, the president will still have the option of ordering that Fordo and other nuclear facilities be destroyed.但如果外交努力失败，或伊朗人仍不愿屈服于特朗普的核心要求，那就是他们彻底必须停止在伊朗境内浓缩铀，特朗普仍可选择下令摧毁福尔多以及其他地方的核设施。伊朗的导弹已对几个以色列城市进行了打击，包括特拉维夫以东的贝内贝拉克。There is only one weapon for the job, experts contend. It is called the Massive Ordnance LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)or, or the GBU-57, and it weighs so much — 30,000 pounds — that it can be lifted only by a B-2 bomber. Israel does not own either the weapon or the bomber needed to get it aloft and over a target.专家们指出，只有一种武器能完成这项任务。它是代号GBU-57的巨型钻地弹，这种炸弹重达13.6吨，只有B-2战略轰炸机能运载它们。以色列没有这种武器，也没有将其运到目标上空所需的轰炸机。If Trump holds back, it could well mean that Israel’s main objective in the war is never completed.如果特朗普选择踌躇不前的话，那很可能意味着以色列这场战斗的主要目标永远无法实现。“Fordo has always been the crux of this thing,” said Brett McGurk, who worked on Middle East issues for four successive U.S. presidents, from George W. Bush to Joe Biden. “If this ends with Fordo still enriching, then it’s not a strategic gain.”“福尔多一直是这件事的关键，”布雷特·麦格克说，他曾在从乔治·W·布什到乔·拜登连续四任美国总统手下负责中东事务。“如果这场战斗结束，但福尔多仍在浓缩铀，那就不是一个战略收获。”That has been true for a long time, and over the past two years the U.S. military has refined the operation, under close White House scrutiny. The exercises led to the conclusion that one bomb would not solve the problem; any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew.这一判断长期成立。过去两年里，美国军队在白宫的密切监督下不断完善作战方案。演习得出的结论是：一枚炸弹解决不了问题；针对福尔多的打击需要轮流进行，一架B-2投下炸弹后，需要下一架B-2把炸弹投进同一个洞。而且，行动需要由美国飞行员和机组人员执行。This was all in the world of war planning until the opening salvos Friday morning in Tehran, Iran’s capital, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the strikes, declaring that Israel had discovered an “imminent” threat that required “preemptive action.” New intelligence, he suggested without describing the details, indicated that Iran was on the cusp of turning its fuel stockpile into weapons.这些计划原本仅停留在战争推演阶段，直到上周五上午，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡以发现了一个“迫在眉睫”的威胁为由下令采取“先发制人的行动”，对伊朗首都德黑兰发起攻击。他暗示新情报表明，伊朗即将把积累起来的核燃料转化为武器，但他没有透露细节。U.S. intelligence officials who have followed the Iranian program for years agree that Iranian scientists and nuclear specialists have been working to shorten the time it would take to manufacture a nuclear bomb, but they saw no huge breakthroughs.多年来一直跟踪伊朗核项目的美国情报官员一致认为，伊朗的科学家和核专家们一直在努力缩短制造核弹所需的时间，但他们还没有看到重大突破。美国总统特朗​普周一​在加拿大艾伯塔省的卡纳纳斯基斯。他需要权衡自己是否想让美国卷入伊朗与以色列的冲突。 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesYet they agree with McGurk and other experts on one point: If the Fordo facility survives the conflict, Iran will retain the key equipment it needs to stay on a pathway to the bomb, even if it would first have to rebuild much of the nuclear infrastructure that Israel has left in ruins over four days of precision bombing.但他们与麦格克和其他专家在一个问题上意见一致：如果福尔多的核设施在冲突后继续存在下去，伊朗将在通往核弹的道路上保留所需的关键设备，即使伊朗将不得不先重建被以色列在四天的精确轰炸中摧毁的大部分核基础设施。Netanyahu has pressed for the United States to make its bunker busters available since the Bush administration, so far to no avail. But people who have spoken to Trump in recent months say the topic has come up repeatedly in his conversations with the prime minister. When Trump has been asked about it, he usually avoids a direct answer.内塔尼亚胡从布什政府起就一直要求美国向以色利提供“碉堡克星”，但到目前为止还未能如愿。但近几个月里与特朗普讨论过的人表示，这个话题在特朗普与内塔尼亚胡的交谈中反复出现。每当后者向特朗普提这件事时，特朗普通常避免直接回答。Now the pressure is on. Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who resigned in a split with Netanyahu, told CNN’s Bianna Golodryga on Monday that “the job has to be done, by Israel, by the United States,” an apparent reference to the fact that the bomb would have to be dropped by an American pilot in a U.S. airplane. He said that Trump had “the option to change the Middle East and influence the world.”压力持续升级。约阿夫·加兰特曾任以色列国防部长，后因与内塔尼亚胡意见不合辞职，加兰特周一在接受CNN记者比安娜·戈洛德里加采访时说，“这项任务必须完成，由以色列来完成，由美国来完成”，他显然是指“碉堡克星”需要由美国飞行员驾驶美国飞机去投。他称特朗普有“改变中东局势、影响世界的选项”。And Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who often speaks for the traditional, hawkish members of his party, said on CBS on Sunday that “if diplomacy is not successful” he will “urge President Trump to go all in to make sure that, when this operation is over, there’s nothing left standing in Iran regarding their nuclear program.”经常代表共和党的传统鹰派发言的南卡罗来纳州联邦参议员林赛·格雷厄姆周日在哥伦比亚广播公司的一个节目中说，“如果外交努力不成功”，他将“敦促特朗普总统采取一切办法，确保这次行动结束后，不给伊朗的核计划留下任何东西”。“If that means providing bombs, provide bombs,” he said, adding, in a clear reference to the Massive Ordinance LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)or, “whatever bombs. If it means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.”“如果这意味着提供炸弹，那就提供炸弹，”他补充道，显然是指“巨型钻地弹”。“不管是什么炸弹。如果这意味着与以色列人一起飞，那就与以色列人一起飞。”周日，驻守在雷霍沃特市的以色列士兵，该市此前遭到伊朗导弹袭击。But Republicans are hardly united in that view. And the split in the party over the decision of whether to make use of one of the Pentagon’s most powerful conventional weapons to help one of America’s closest allies has highlighted a far deeper divide. It is not only about crippling the centrifuges of Fordo; it is also about MAGA’s view of what kinds of wars the United States should avoid at all costs.但共和党人对这个问题的看法并非铁板一块。党内围绕着是否应该动用五角大楼最强大的常规武器之一支援亲密盟友的问题上所存在的分歧暴露出了更深层次的裂痕。这不仅关乎摧毁福尔多的离心机，也关乎MAGA（让美国再次伟大）支持者对美国应该不惜一切代价避免哪类战争的看法。The anti-interventionist wing of the party, given its most prominent voice by influential podcaster Tucker Carlson, has argued that the lesson of Iraq and Afghanistan is that there is nothing but downside risk in getting deeply into another Middle East war. On Friday, Carlson wrote that the United States should “drop Israel” and “let them fight their own wars.”共和党内反对干预的派系认为，伊拉克和阿富汗的教训表明，深度卷入又一场中东战争只会带来不利方面的风险，该派系的主要代言人是颇有影响力的播客主持塔克·卡尔森。卡尔森上周五写道，美国应该“不管以色列”，“让他们去打他们自己的仗。”For now, Trump can afford to keep one foot in both camps. By making one more run at coercive diplomacy, he can make the case to the MAGA faithful that he is using the threat of the Massive Ordnance LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)or to bring the conflict to a peaceful end. And he can tell the Iranians that they are going to cease enriching uranium one way or the other, either by diplomatic agreement or because a GBU-57 imploded the mountain.就目前而言，特朗普仍然能游走于两派之间。通过再给强制性外交一次机会，他能让MAGA忠诚者们相信，他正在用巨型钻地弹的威胁让冲突和平地结束。同时，他告诉伊朗人，无论如何必须停止浓缩铀，要么通过外交协议，要么让GBU-57巨型钻地弹炸毁那座山。But if the combination of persuasion and coercion fails, he will have to decide whether this is Israel’s war or America’s.但如果把劝说和胁迫结合起来的手段失败的话，他将不得不决定，这是以色列的战争，还是美国的战争。德黑兰市中心的大巴扎，摄于周一。Farnaz Fassihi自纽约、Patrick Kingsley自耶路撒冷对本文有报道贡献。David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。Jonathan Swan是时报白宫记者，负责报道特朗普政府。翻译：Cindy Hao点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 谈还是打？特朗普的伊朗问题决断时刻

特朗普加密货币晚宴：中国政协委员成座上贵宾

ERIC LIPTON, DAVID YAFFE-BELLANY, 傅才德, DEVON LUM, JIAWEI WANG2025年6月10日The Trump White House has repeatedly sounded an alarm about visitors with ties to China’s Communist Party coming to the United States, arguing that they are a potential security threat.特朗普政府曾屡次对与中共存在关联的人入境美国发出安全警告，称他们可能带来安全威胁。But the administration appears to have literally left the door open to a member of a Chinese government group when it went along with a plan to give the biggest purchasers of President Trump’s digital currency access to the president and the White House.然而，当特朗普政府同意一项计划、让总统的数字货币最大买家有机会接触总统本人和白宫时，实际上对一名中国政府组织的成员敞开了大门。Mr. Trump launched a so-called memecoin, a type of cryptocurrency, just days before his inauguration. To bolster sales, the president’s business partners created a contest in April, offering the coin’s top buyers a tour of the White House and a private dinner with Mr. Trump at his Virginia golf club.在就职典礼前几天，特朗普推出了所谓的米姆币——一种加密货币。为了促销，总统的商业伙伴在4月份推出了一项竞赛，承诺顶级买家可获白宫参观资格，以及在他的弗吉尼亚高尔夫俱乐部与特朗普共进私人晚餐的机会。One of those buyers was He Tianying, who is a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, according to government documents in China examined by The New York Times.其中一位买家是何天鹰，据《纽约时报》查阅的中国政府文件显示，他是一名政协委员。That government group, referred to as the C.P.P.C.C., is an advisory body that seeks to broaden the Communist Party’s influence and solicit support from influential people in Chinese society.这个政府团体是一个旨在扩大共产党影响力并争取中国社会有影响力人士支持的咨询机构。Mr. He, who was registered at the Trump event as a resident of Hong Kong, advises the Chinese government through his role as a delegate of the Fangshan C.P.P.C.C., a district of Beijing. He is listed as a member of the organization’s science and technology committee. The Times could find no indication that Mr. He is a member of the Communist Party, and the government body he serves on is fairly low level.何天鹰以香港居民身份注册参加特朗普的活动，而他是作为北京市房山区政协委员向中国政府提出建议的。他是房山区政协科技委员会成员。时报未发现他是中共党员的证据，且其所在的政府机构级别也相对较低。There were no restrictions on who could buy the Trump memecoin — which was marketed like a collectible baseball card — including foreign nationals. But the winning buyers were given the opportunity for close proximity to the president. It is not clear why Mr. He wanted to attend.购买特朗普米姆币不存在限制（被宣传为类似棒球卡这样的收藏品），外国公民也可以购买。但获胜买家获得了近距离接触总统的机会。目前尚不清楚何天鹰想参加特朗普活动的动机。抗议者聚集在弗吉尼亚州斯特林市的特朗普国家高尔夫俱乐部外，在加密货币晚宴宾客抵达时举行示威。这场活动同时招致民主党人、政府监督机构乃至部分共和党人士的强烈批评。Still, at a time when the administration is seeking to scrutinize and revoke the visas of Chinese students with ties to the Communist Party, the incident illustrates inconsistencies in the Trump administration’s approach to how it handles Chinese nationals, as well as potential weaknesses in the background checks the Trump administration did on the guests who bought his memecoin.尽管如此，在政府正寻求加强审查并取消与共产党有联系的中国学生留学签证的时候，此事暴露出特朗普政府在处理中国公民问题上的矛盾性，以及政府对特朗普米姆币购买者的背景调查可能存在的漏洞。Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in an interview that the dinner was a private event and that government officials were not closely involved. “As the White House has always maintained, this was not an official White House event,” she said.白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在采访中表示，该晚宴属私人性质，政府并未深度参与。她说：“正如白宫一直所坚持的那样，这并非一场官方的白宫活动。”Once a crypto skeptic, Mr. Trump has done an about-face and declared himself a digital coin enthusiast, raising ethical concerns and blurring the line between his personal business ventures and the presidency. His family’s company has issued its own cryptocurrency, and he has also heavily promoted the memecoin, known as $TRUMP.曾对加密货币持怀疑态度的特朗普如今已彻底转变立场，自诩为数字货币的拥趸，此举不仅引发伦理争议，还模糊了私人商业利益与总统职务之间的界限。他的家族公司不仅发行了自己的加密货币，其本人还大力推广名为$TRUMP的米姆币。The memecoin dinner engendered strong criticism from Democrats, government watchdogs and even some Republicans about the appearance of monetizing the presidency for personal gain. The event was arranged by the president’s business partners to directly enrich the first family, even as Mr. Trump spoke that evening behind a stand emblazoned with the presidential seal.这场米姆币晚宴引发了民主党人、政府监督机构甚至部分共和党人的强烈批评，他们认为此举存在利用总统职位谋取私利的嫌疑。这场由特朗普的商业伙伴操盘的活动被指直接为第一家庭敛财，特朗普当晚则站在有总统徽章的讲台发表讲话。Bidders competed to accumulate the largest holding of the coin over several weeks. The top 220 won a dinner with Mr. Trump, and the top 25 also got a “V.I.P.” tour of the White House.竞拍者需在数周内积累最多数量的该米姆币。排名前220的买家获得了与特朗普共进晚餐的机会，前25名还得到了白宫的贵宾参观资格。The buyers used self-adopted nicknames that disguised their identities, but The Times obtained copies of several pages of an official sign-in sheet for the dinner and over the past two weeks has been examining the biographies of many of the attendees.购买者们使用化名来隐藏身份，但《纽约时报》获得了晚宴官方签到表的部分副本，并在过去两周核查了多名参与者的背景。Mr. He, using the nickname Sky, owned $3.7 million worth of the memecoin, public transaction records show, at the time the contest ended. He was ranked as the seventh-largest buyer of the cryptocurrency, which entitled him to a gold-colored V.I.P. wristband for the event.公开交易记录显示，化名“天空(Sky)”的何天鹰在活动截止时持有价值370万美元的米姆币，成为该加密货币的第七大买家，由此获得了晚宴的金色贵宾手环。The day after the dinner at Mr. Trump’s golf club, Mr. He was observed by a reporter from The Times entering the White House for the tour that had been set up by Mr. Trump’s business partner Bill Zanker, who created the Trump memecoin.在特朗普的高尔夫俱乐部晚宴次日，《纽约时报》记者目睹何天鹰进入白宫参观，该行程由特朗普的商业伙伴、特朗普米姆币的创始人比尔·赞克安排。特朗普的商业伙伴比尔·赞克创建了特朗普米姆币。 Jason Andrew for The New York TimesMr. Zanker and the Trump family share in the revenues from the memecoin business, which has already totaled at least $320 million, according to an estimate by Chainalysis, a crypto forensics group.据区块链数据提供商Chainalysis的估算，赞克与特朗普家族从该米姆币业务中获得的收益已超3.2亿美元。After the tour, Mr. He, using a social media account under his Sky pseudonym, posted a series of photos from the dinner and White House tour, which he electronically modified to cover his face. The Times was able to establish his identity through publicly available information, including photos and biographical information on his company website.参观结束后，何天鹰用“天空”这个化名的社交媒体账号发布了一系列关于晚宴和参观白宫的照片，但他对自己的面部做了遮盖处理。《纽约时报》通过其公司网站公开的照片及履历确定了他的身份。Mr. He made several waves of purchases during the three weeks of the memecoin contest, according to the transaction records.交易记录显示，何天鹰在米姆币竞赛的三周时间里多次大额购入该币。“May I have the pleasure?” he wrote in one social media post, showing off his standing as one of the top owners of the memecoin, several days before the contest ended.“不知我是否有此荣幸？”竞赛结束前几天，他在一条社交媒体帖子中写道，炫耀自己作为米姆币顶级持有者之一的地位。Mr. He declined to comment as he entered the White House, and he did not respond to follow-up emails, calls and text messages from The Times.面对《纽约时报》记者在他进入白宫参观时的提问，何天鹰拒绝置评，后续也未回复邮件、电话及短信。The dinner invitation sent to Mr. He stands in contrast to the statement Mr. Trump issued on Wednesday, arguing that his administration needed to urgently move to block visas for certain Chinese nationals, including those attending Harvard University, as “the Chinese Communist Party has sent thousands of midcareer and senior bureaucrats” to the United States. He said this order was for “crucial national security reasons.”向何天鹰发出的晚宴邀请与特朗普上周三发表的声明形成鲜明对比。特朗普在声明中称，美国需要紧急采取行动，禁止向包括哈佛大学学生在内的某些中国公民发放签证，因为“中国共产党向美国输送了数以千计的中高级官员”。他说，这一命令是出于“关键的国家安全原因”。A senior White House official, who asked not to be named because of the sensitive nature of the matter, said this week that the presence of He at the dinner and White House tour was unfortunate and that overall, the meme coin dinner had created unnecessary questions.一名白宫高级官员本周表示，何天鹰出席晚宴和白宫参观令人遗憾，总的来说，米姆币晚宴制造了不必要的问题。由于此事的敏感性，这名官员要求不透露姓名。But the White House official added that it had occurred because Trump “carelessly committed” to his longtime friend and business partner Zanker that he would be a part of it. The official added that Trump was not notified who would be attending and was unaware of He’s background.但这位白宫官员补充说，发生这种情况是因为特朗普“大意地”向他的老朋友和商业伙伴赞克承诺，自己将参与其中。这位官员还说，特朗普没有被告知谁将出席，也不知道何天鹰的背景。Supporting the Party支持中共北京的人民大会堂。The mission of the Fangshan District division of the C.P.P.C.C., which lists Mr. He as a member, is to “uphold the overall leadership of the Communist Party of China and strengthen the common ideological and political foundation,” the group says in describing one of its meetings this year.中国政协房山区委员会在描述今年的一次会议时说，其任务是“坚持中国共产党的全面领导，共同思想政治基础更加牢固”，何天鹰是房山区委员会的一名委员。C.P.P.C.C. committees are advisory bodies to China’s rubber-stamp legislatures at the national, provincial and, like Fangshan, district or county levels. Members can make policy recommendations to the legislative bodies, called People’s Congresses.中国人民政治协商会议是中国国家、省、区、县等橡皮图章立法机构的咨询机构。政协委员可向立法机构，即人民代表大会提出政策建议。These committees are part of the Communist Party’s United Front system, which is devised to co-opt broad segments of the population, including entrepreneurs like Mr. He, into supporting and carrying out the party’s policies. The C.P.P.C.C. bodies also act as networking clubs.这些委员会是共产党统战系统的一部分，该系统旨在吸收包括何天鹰这样的企业家在内的广大民众，支持和执行党的政策。全国政协各机构还充当联络俱乐部。“When you are a C.P.P.C.C. member, you are expected to be a part of the United Front system and carry the water where the party asks you to,” said Peter Mattis, the president of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation who studies the United Front.“如果你是一名政协委员，你就应该成为统战体系的一部分，在党的要求下负责任，”研究统战问题的华盛顿詹姆斯敦基金会主席彼得·马蒂斯说。The Times turned up documentation on Chinese government websites showing Mr. He’s participation in the C.P.P.C.C. group, as well as an attendance list for the committee’s gathering in Beijing in January that included Mr. He’s name.时报在中国政府网站上找到了显示何天鹰参加政协小组的文件，以及该委员会1月份在北京召开会议的出席名单，名单上有何天鹰的名字。北京的一处跳蚤市场，待售的扑克、毛主席语录和老照片。Chinese government records show that Mr. He is the majority owner of a Beijing-based investment firm, TechSharpe (Beijing) Capital Management Company, which says on its website that it uses artificial intelligence to “conduct quantitative investment in stocks.”中国政府记录显示，何天鹰是一家位于北京的投资公司天算量化（北京）资本管理公司的大股东，该公司在其网站上表示，它使用人工智能“对股票进行量化投资”。Recently, Mr. He has also promoted a crypto firm called LuckyFuture and has interacted on social media with Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the giant crypto exchange Binance. In a social media post, responding to an inquiry from The Times, Mr. Zhao said he learned about LuckyFuture after Mr. He reached out to him in the last few weeks. (A Binance spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.)最近，何天鹰还宣传了一家名为LuckyFuture的加密公司，并在社交媒体上与大型加密交易所币安的创始人赵长鹏进行了互动。赵长鹏在一篇社交媒体帖子中回应时报的提问说，他是在何天鹰过去几周联系他之后才了解LuckyFuture的。（币安发言人没有回应置评请求。）Mr. He came to the United States from China about a decade ago to get a master’s degree in finance at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, before returning to China and becoming active in the C.P.P.C.C., which is noted in his TechSharpe biography. This made Mr. He just the kind of student Mr. Trump is now targeting.何天鹰在大约十年前从中国来到美国，在麻省理工学院攻读金融硕士学位，之后回到中国，开始参与政协事务。他在天算量化的简介中提到了这一点。他正是特朗普如今所针对的那类学生。But there was no hint of those kinds of fears in gracious invitations sent via email in mid-May to the dinner guests.但是，在5月中旬通过电子邮件向出席晚宴的客人发出的亲切邀请中，并没有显示出这种担忧的迹象。“Congratulations!” said the notice sent to Mr. He, with a photo illustration of a muscular, smiling Mr. Trump at a dinner table, with an American flag on his lapel. “We can’t wait to see you at the Gala Dinner.” (Mr. He posted a copy of these emails on his social media account.)“恭喜你！”发给何天鹰的通知中写道，还配了一张照片，上面是一个身形魁梧、面带微笑的特朗普坐在餐桌旁，翻领上别着美国国旗徽章。“我们迫不及待地想在晚宴上见到你。（何天鹰在自己的社交媒体账户上发布了这些邮件的副本。）A Table of Foreign Visitors外国来宾席出席晚宴的还有中国出生的亿万富翁孙宇晨，他是特朗普米姆币的最大购买者。According to a video taken at the dinner, the V.I.P.s at just one table illustrated how many of the guests had traveled from overseas, including from China.根据晚宴上拍摄的一段视频，仅一张桌子边的贵宾就足以说明有多少客人来自海外，包括中国。Mr. He’s dining companions included Justin Sun, the Chinese-born billionaire who was the contest’s single largest buyer and one of the largest investors in the Trump family’s other crypto venture, World Liberty Financial.与何天鹰同桌的人包括中国出生的亿万富翁孙宇晨，他是本次竞购最大的单一买家，也是特朗普家族另一家加密企业“世界自由金融”的最大投资者之一。Mr. Sun also has experience as a C.P.P.C.C. member. In 2016 he was named as a delegate for a committee in a district in Guangzhou, a city in southern China. Only 26 at the time, he was among the Newbie traderest people in the country to sit on a C.P.P.C.C. body.孙宇晨也担任过政协委员。2016年，他被任命为中国南方城市广州某区的政协委员。当时年仅26岁的他是中国最年轻的政协委员之一。“I feel that the responsibility is very heavy, and I must strive to adapt to the new role as soon as possible,” Mr. Sun was quoted in state media as saying at the time. (His representatives did not respond to a request for comment.)官方媒体曾援引孙宇晨的话：“感觉责任很重大，一定争取尽快适应新的角色。”（他的代表没有回应置评请求。）Also seated at the table were Cheng Lu, a Singapore-based crypto investor, who told The Times in an interview outside the White House that he bought a large amount of the family’s memecoin because he wanted a chance to privately meet with Mr. Trump.同桌的还有新加坡的加密货币投资者路成（音），他在白宫外接受采访时告诉时报，他购买了大量特朗普家族的米姆币，因为他希望能有机会私下与特朗普会面。Sheldon Xia, the founder of BitMart, a cryptocurrency trading platform backed by China-based Fenbushi Capital, joined them at the table, along with Sangrok Oh, the chief executive of Hyperithm, a Seoul- and Tokyo-based firm that manages digital assets for institutional investors.此外还有中国分布式资本支持的加密货币交易平台BitMart的创始人夏尔特与Hyperithm的首席执行官吴尚禄（音），Hyperithm是一家总部位于首尔和东京的公司，为机构投资者管理数字资产。Guests invited to the dinner were “required to fill out a brief form as part of the security background check to gain entry to the event,” according to an email sent to the winners. The questionnaire was created with a service called CryptoComply offered by the New York-based firm Canaria Consulting. It requested information such as name, date of birth and place of residence.根据发给受邀者的电子邮件，受邀参加晚宴的客人“需要填写一张简单的表格，作为安全背景调查的一部分，才能参加活动”。这份问卷是由纽约加那利咨询公司提供的一项名为CryptoComply的服务创建的。它要求提供姓名、出生日期和居住地等资料。5月23日，米姆币晚宴的客人离开白宫。排名前220的购买者赢得了与特朗普共进晚餐的机会，前25名还得到了白宫的贵宾参观资格。The 25 top Trump memecoin holders had their names submitted to a background check system called White House Worker and Visitor Entry System, a government official told The Times. This system compares the names of the pending visitors with government databases that include terrorist watch lists and lists of known criminals.一名政府官员告诉时报，持有特朗普米姆币最多的25人的的名字被提交给了一个名为“白宫工作人员和访客入境系统”的背景调查系统。该系统会将这些待定访客的名字与政府数据库进行比对，数据库中包括恐怖分子观察名单和已知罪犯名单。“The U.S. Secret Service is responsible for vetting all White House visitors and guests, and we fully trust their process in doing so,” said Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary.“特勤局负责审查所有白宫访客和客人，我们完全信任他们的审查程序，”白宫新闻秘书莱维特说。Some guests at the dinner said they were surprised at how lax the security appeared at the event. People not on the guest list were in certain cases allowed to enter the golf club grounds that evening and remain there after Mr. Trump arrived, The Times also confirmed.一些出席晚宴的客人说，他们对宴会上的安全措施如此松懈感到惊讶。时报还证实，在某些情况下，不在宾客名单上的人当晚被允许进入高尔夫俱乐部场地，并在特朗普抵达后留在那里。“I expected more from the security questions,” said Nicholas Pinto, a Florida resident and crypto trader who attended the dinner. “It was very basic. And next thing you know, I am standing there in the room with President Trump.”“没想到安保问题就这么点，”出席晚宴的佛罗里达居民和加密货币交易员尼古拉斯·平托说。“都是很基本的东西。然后我就可以和特朗普总统在同一个房间里了。”David A. Fahrenthold、Dylan Freedman和Eileen Sullivan对本文有报道贡献。Susan C. Beachy有研究贡献。Eric Lipton是时报调查记者，他深入报道从五角大楼开支到有毒化学品等一系列议题。David Yaffe-Bellany自纽约撰写加密货币行业报道。他的联系方式：davidyb@nytimes.com。傅才德(Michael Forsythe)是时报调查记者，常驻纽约。他此前曾驻中国，广泛报道该国各类议题。Devon Lum是时报视觉调查团队的记者，主要负责开源技术和视觉分析。Jiawei Wang是《纽约时报》视频记者，常驻首尔。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 特朗普加密货币晚宴：中国政协委员成座上贵宾

中国打击稀土走私，海外企业“断供”危机严峻

KEITH BRADSHER2025年6月5日2020年，警察在一条从广西通往越南的铁路线上巡逻。中国的走私者有时会穿越中越边境的山林将稀土矿物运往境外。 Lu Boan/Xinhua via Getty ImagesThe Chinese government has begun an intensive campaign to prevent rare earths from leaving the country without Beijing’s permission, a step that is making shortages even more severe for these minerals, which are crucial to automakers, military contractors and many other businesses.中国政府正在展开一场全面行动，防止稀土在未经北京许可的情况下出境。这一举措导致这些对汽车制造商、军工企业和许多其他行业至关重要的矿产资源的短缺问题愈发严峻。The anti-smuggling campaign, which Chinese state media described this week, is a cornerstone of Beijing’s move this spring to assert tighter control over the rare earth industry as a tool in Chinese statecraft.中国官方媒体本周报道将该行动描述为反走私，它是北京今年春季加强对稀土行业控制的核心举措，旨在将稀土作为国家战略工具。Beijing halted legal exports on April 4 of seven kinds of rare earths and magnets made from them. Beijing said any further shipments of these rare earths and magnets, which are processed almost entirely in China, would require export licenses.北京于4月4日停止了七种稀土及相关稀土磁体的合法出口，并表示今后这些几乎完全在中国加工的稀土和磁体均需获得许可证方能出口。Few licenses have been issued, as Beijing exerts pressure on the United States and others to lower tariffs on Chinese goods and to allow the sale of sensitive military technology to China.目前获批的许可证寥寥无几，与此同时，北京正施压美国及其他国家降低对华商品关税并允许向中国出售敏感军事技术。Many companies in the United States, Europe and elsewhere have long depended on China for rare earth metals and now find themselves fast running out of supplies.长期以来，美国、欧洲及其他地区的许多企业依赖中国供应稀土金属，如今发现库存正迅速耗尽。China’s anti-smuggling push amounts to a double whammy for these businesses: Beijing has halted legal exports and is cracking down very hard on illegal exports at the same time.中国的反走私行动对这些企业而言堪称双重打击：北京不仅停止了合法出口，同时也在严厉打击非法出口。Widespread smuggling eroded the effectiveness of China’s previous restrictions of rare earth exports. Beijing imposed a two-month embargo on Japan during a territorial dispute in 2010 and intermittent restrictions from 2009 to 2013 to put pressure on global manufacturers to move factories into China.大规模的走私此前曾削弱中国稀土出口限制的效果。2010年领土争端期间，北京对日本实施了两个月的禁运，并在2009至2013年间间歇性施加限制，以迫使全球制造商将工厂迁至中国。Until 2010, when Beijing began early attempts to limit smuggling, Chinese organized crime syndicates smuggled up to half of China’s annual rare earth production out of the country. Beijing’s efforts had limited success at first. Multinational companies like Boeing, Volkswagen and Toyota relied on long supply chains in which legal and illegal production were mixed together.直到2010年北京首次尝试限制走私前，中国有组织犯罪集团每年走私的稀土量高达中国年产量的一半。起初，北京的努力成效有限，在波音、大众和丰田等跨国公司依赖的长供应链中，合法与非法生产的稀土混杂。Even before the recent crackdown, however, the scale of illegal shipments had been greatly reduced. “Smuggling is not as easy as it once was,” said David Abraham, a rare earths specialist at Boise State University.然而，在近期打击行动之前，非法运输的规模就已经有大幅缩减。“走私已不像过去那么容易了，”博伊西州立大学稀土专家戴维·亚伯拉罕表示。Senior officials from China’s customs, commercial, police and spy agencies met on May 9 to plot strategy for the crackdown. Officials from 11 national ministries and seven provinces met three days later and issued a joint statement through the Ministry of Commerce.5月9日，中国海关、商务、警察和情报机构的高级官员开会商讨打击策略。三天后，11个国家部委和七个省份的官员召开会议，并通过商务部发布联合声明。“Strategic mineral export control is related to national security and development interests, and strengthening the control of the entire export chain is the key,” the statement said. It also called for comprehensive tracking of rare earths at every stage of production and transportation.声明称：“战略性矿产出口管制关乎国家安全和发展利益，加强全出口链条管控是关键。”声明还呼吁对稀土生产和运输的每个环节进行全面追踪。3月，来自中国广西的卡车通过一处口岸进入越南。China’s Ministry of Commerce has said its new licensing system was aimed at limiting military use of rare earth metals. American military contractors rely heavily on rare earth magnets and other critical minerals from China to build missiles, drones, tanks, artillery and fighter jets.中国商务部表示，新的许可制度旨在限制稀土金属的军事用途。美国军工企业高度依赖从中国进口的稀土磁体和其他关键矿产，用于制造导弹、无人机、坦克、火炮和战斗机。China’s Ministry of Commerce now requires Chinese producers to submit elaborate documentation for each request to export restricted rare earths or magnets. To prevent resales, the application requires Chinese companies to certify not just who is buying the material but how it will be used in subsequent steps of production, sometimes including photos of products, three rare earth industry leaders outside China said.中国商务部现要求国内生产商在申请出口受限稀土或磁体时提交详尽文件。三家中国以外的稀土行业领先企业透露，为防止转售，申请不仅要求中国企业证明材料购买方身份，还需说明其在后续生产环节中的用途，有时甚至需要提供产品照片。These documents may provide Beijing with a detailed map of how rare earths are used abroad, and could make it easier for China to target specific companies and countries in the future.这些文件可能为北京提供稀土海外用途的详情，使其未来更易针对特定企业和国家采取行动。“It’s essentially becoming an intelligence gathering effort,” said James Litinsky, chairman and chief executive of MP Materials, an American company that owns the sole U.S. rare earths mine, located in Mountain Pass, Calif.“这本质上正在成为一项情报收集工作，”美国MP材料公司董事长兼首席执行官詹姆斯·利廷斯基表示。该公司拥有美国唯一的稀土矿，位于加利福尼亚州山口市。Securities Times, a Chinese state-owned news outlet controlled by People’s Daily, the flagship publication of the Communist Party, said in a report this week that Guangxi, a region in southern China that borders Vietnam, was tightening its scrutiny of rare earths trafficking in particular.由中共机关报《人民日报》主管的中国国有新闻机构《证券时报》本周在一篇报道中称，与越南接壤的中国南部地区广西正特别加强对稀土走私的审查。Before the Covid-19 pandemic, smugglers routinely moved large quantities of rare earths across the border with Vietnam. A tiny refinery in northern Vietnam was the only facility outside China that could undertake the complicated steps needed to chemically process so-called heavy rare earths.在新冠疫情前，走私者经常跨境向越南运输大量稀土。越南北部一家小型精炼厂是中国以外唯一能承担复杂的重稀土化学处理的设施。But China built an elaborate system of fences with motion detectors along its southern border during the pandemic, after a series of incidents in which infected people entered China. The fences have since proved an obstacle for smugglers.但在疫情期间，中国因一系列境外人员输入感染事件，在南部边境修建了带有运动探测器的精密护栏系统。事实证明这已成为走私者的障碍。The small refinery in Vietnam closed more than a year ago because of a dispute with the country’s tax authorities.这家位于越南的小型精炼厂因与该国税务部门的纠纷，已于一年多前关闭。Another smuggling method, employed during China’s embargo against Japan in 2010, was to melt rare earths into steel beams. The beams were then exported and remelted at their destination to extract the rare earths.2010年中国对日本实施禁运期间，另一种走私手段是将稀土熔入钢梁，随后出口并在目的地重新熔化以提取稀土。But China has tightened its surveillance of the steel sector, and many small mills have closed, replaced by fewer, larger mills with greater state supervision.但中国已加强对钢铁行业的监控，许多小型钢厂关闭，取而代之的是数量更少、规模更大且受国家监管更严格的钢厂。As shortages of rare earths outside China worsen and prices surge, the potential profits are huge for smugglers willing to take the risk.随着中国以外地区稀土短缺加剧、价格飙升，愿冒风险的走私者可能获得巨额利润。Li You对本文有研究贡献。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 中国打击稀土走私，海外企业“断供”危机严峻

在中国做生意越来越难，但欧洲企业仍依赖其出口

KEITH BRADSHER2025年5月29日上海车展上展示的大众汽车。欧洲汽车制造商在中国的市场份额已经下降。 Andrea Verdelli for The New York TimesEuropean companies, many of which have operated in China for decades, are finding it increasingly difficult to do business in the country, another sign of how China’s weak domestic economy and opaque regulations are testing even longstanding multinational business ties.欧洲企业发现在中国开展业务越来越困难，即便是那些在华扎根几十年的企业也不例外，这一现象再次表明，中国疲软的国内经济和不透明的监管环境正考验着甚至长久存在的跨国商业关系。European automakers have been rapidly losing market share and face many political difficulties. Volkswagen agreed last December to sell its factory in northwestern China’s Xinjiang region, where Beijing has repressed Muslim ethnic groups. European pharmaceutical and medical imaging equipment companies have found themselves locked out of much of the state-run health system.欧洲的汽车制造商们已在中国迅速失去市场份额，同时还面临诸多政治层面的挑战。大众汽车去年12月宣布出售公司位于中国西北部新疆地区的工厂，中国政府一直在该地区压制穆斯林少数民族。欧洲的制药和医学影像设备公司已发现自己基本上被中国政府的医保系统拒之门外。An extensive annual survey of businesses released on Wednesday by the European Chamber of Commerce in China found that nearly three-quarters said it was getting harder to operate in China. It was the fourth consecutive year that the survey showed deepening corporate pessimism.中国欧盟商会周三发布的一项年度企业调查显示，近四分之三的欧洲企业表示在华经营难度持续增加。这是该调查连续第四年显示企业悲观情绪在加剧。The proportion of European companies that plan to expand their operations in China has also fallen to a record low, with just 38 percent saying that they intend to do so this year. European investment has been important in bringing Western technology to China and in bringing Chinese products to world markets.打算扩大在华业务的欧洲企业比例也降到历史最低点，只有38%的企业表示今年有这种打算。长期以来，欧洲投资在将西方技术引入中国以及将中国产品推向世界市场上发挥着重要作用。The chamber, which has been gauging challenges companies face in China for a quarter century, represents the interests of some 1,700 companies, from industrial giants like VW to small businesses with a handful of employees who are cogs in global supply chains.过去25年来，中国欧盟商会一直在评估企业在华面临的挑战，商会代表着约1700家企业的利益，其中既有大众汽车这样的工业巨头，也包括只有少数员工但在全球供应链中不可或缺的小企业。The chamber’s survey also unearthed a somewhat contradictory trend that could prove troublesome for President Trump’s attempt to shield American manufacturing from China’s exports with tariffs. Even as European businesses curb their own investments in China, some are also buying ever more components from Chinese companies. That makes their supply chains even more dependent on China.该商会的调查还发现了一个有些矛盾的趋势，这可能会给特朗普总统试图通过来关税保护美国制造业不受中国出口产品冲击的努力带来麻烦。就在欧洲企业减少在华投资的同时，一些企业却正在从中国企业那里购买越来越多的零部件。这让它们的供应链更依赖中国。China has retaliated against Mr. Trump’s tariffs by imposing its own tariffs on American goods. That has prompted a hunt by European companies in China for Chinese replacements for the few components they were still buying from the United States, said Jens Eskelund, the chamber’s president.中国已对特朗普的关税采取了反制措施，对美国商品加征了自己的关税。这已促使在华经营的欧洲企业开始寻找替代它们仍在从美国购买的少数零部件的中国产品，中国欧盟商会主席彦辞(Jens Eskelund)说。中国欧盟商会主席彦辞说，欧洲企业能在中国以比其他任何地方“都低的价格买到更好的零部件”。A broad fall in prices in China has made Chinese components too good a deal for many European companies to pass up. A recent weakening of China’s currency against the euro has made Chinese components even more attractive.中国商品价格大范围下降，已使购买中国零部件对许多欧洲企业来说是不能错过的好买卖。人民币兑欧元汇率最近走弱，进一步增强了中国零部件的吸引力。“The one place where they actually get better components at a lower price than anywhere else in the world is here in China,” Mr. Eskelund said.“他们能以全球最低价格获得更优质零部件的唯一地方，就是中国，”彦辞说。Not only the United States, but the European Union and other countries have imposed tariffs lately in response to China’s soaring exports of manufactured goods and tepid demand for imports. European companies that export from China to other markets had long feared possible trade barriers, but some were still caught off guard.作为对中国制成品出口飙升、进口需求低迷的回应，最近对中国商品加征关税的不只是美国，也有欧盟和其他国家。把商品从中国出口到其他市场的欧洲公司长期以来一直担心贸易壁垒，但有些公司仍被新关税搞得措手不及。“That fear has turned into a nightmare for many at the moment,” said Klaus Zenkel, a businessman in Shenzhen who is a member of the chamber’s South China chapter.“那种担心对许多人来说如今已变成一场噩梦，”常驻深圳的商业人士、中国欧盟商会华南区分会主席高志豪(Klaus Zenkel)说。Some companies have set up temporary assembly operations in other countries to bypass American tariffs, Mr. Zenkel said. They rent warehouses in places like Taiwan, do the final assembly of Chinese components in the warehouses and then ship the finished goods to the United States with customs declarations that no longer show the goods as coming from China.高志豪表示，一些企业已在其他国家设立了临时组装厂，以规避美国的关税。它们在台湾等地租用仓库，在仓库里对中国零部件进行最后的组装，然后将成品运往美国，在报关单上不再标明货物来自中国。The Trump administration is trying to reduce these indirect shipments from China. Mr. Trump has threatened high tariffs against countries that run large trade surpluses with the United States.特朗普政府正试图减少这种来自中国的间接出口。特朗普已威胁要对那些与美国存在巨额贸易顺差的国家征收高额关税。One category of business conditions has improved very markedly in China in the past year, according to the European chamber’s survey.据欧洲商会的调查，过去一年中有一类营商环境指标在中国显著改善。The share of European companies worried about rising wages has fallen steeply over the last several years, and these now rank among the least of their concerns. Labor costs had been rising along with China’s surging housing prices. But that bubble burst in 2021, causing declines in construction that eliminated many jobs.担心中国工资上涨的欧洲企业的比例过去几年来急剧下降，这个问题在它们的关注排名中目前垫底。此前，劳动力成本曾随着中国房价的飙升而上涨。但中国的房价泡沫已在2021年破裂，导致了建筑业衰退，大量就业岗位流失。In turn, flat or even falling wages have contributed to weak demand in China for everything from imported cosmetics to hotel rooms — resulting in broadly low prices, a potentially dangerous phenomenon known as deflation.反过来，工资不再增长甚至下降，导致中国对从进口化妆品到酒店客房等各种商品的需求疲软，进而造成了普遍的价格低迷，出现了一种被称为通货紧缩的潜在危险。“By a wide margin, it is China’s economic slowdown that is seen as having the greatest impact,” Mr. Eskelund said.“企业把中国经济放缓视为影响最大的因素，比其他因素大得多，”彦辞说。Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 在中国做生意越来越难，但欧洲企业仍依赖其出口

香港记者协会称多家独立新闻机构及媒体人被查税

TIFFANY MAY2025年5月22日去年，两名编辑被判犯有串谋发布煽动刊物罪。图片为等候在香港一家法院外的记者。 Bertha Wang/EPA, via ShutterstockJournalists in Hong Kong have increasingly complained about having to self-censor and the fear of arrest since a national security crackdown began five years ago.自五年前的一场国家安全打压行动以来，香港记者越来越多地抱怨不得不进行自我审查，担心遭受牢狱之灾。Now, they say, they have another worry to add to the list: tax inspections.他们说，现在又多了一个担忧：查税。The Hong Kong Journalists Association said on Wednesday that the union itself and six independent news outlets — as well as their founders — are among those who have been subject to tax investigations, saying it added to the pressures being placed on journalists as press freedom dwindles in the Chinese territory.香港记者协会周三表示，该协会和六家独立新闻机构——以及它们的创始人——均遭到查税，并称随着这个中国领土的新闻自由减少，记者们面临的压力也在增加。The investigations also extended to the personal taxes of the spouses or parents of some of the journalists who are being investigated, the group said. Most of those being investigated by the department have been issued additional tax demands, and a few said they were asked to provide up to seven years of financial information.该组织表示，部分被调查记者的配偶或父母也面临个人所得税调查。多数被查对象已收到补税通知，少数人更是被要求提交长达七年的财务信息。Selina Cheng, the chair of the association, said that there was not sufficient evidence to prompt most of the tax investigations, and that, in some cases, the authorities had overestimated income without taking into account business expenses.香港记者协会主席郑嘉如指出，多数税务调查缺乏充分依据，部分案例中当局在未扣除经营成本的情况下高估了收入。“Journalists in Hong Kong do not have a very high income. Other than having to pay these claims of taxes, they also need to spend money, time and energy to prove in reverse that they were innocent,” Ms. Cheng said.“香港记者收入本就不高，除被迫缴纳这些存疑税款外，还需耗费金钱、时间和精力自证清白，”郑嘉如说。The number of tax investigations in Hong Kong is relatively low: The Inland Revenue Department said it completed about 1,800 field audit and investigations between 2023 and 2024. The department said in a statement that the investigations followed standard procedures. “The industry or background of a taxpayer has no bearing on such reviews,” it said.香港的税务稽查相对少见。税务局数据显示，2023至2024年度共完成约1800宗实地审计及调查。该局在声明中强调，所有稽查均依标准程序进行，“纳税人的行业或背景不会影响稽查决定。”Some independent media outlets in Hong Kong have faced great scrutiny since a national security law was imposed by Beijing in 2020 and criminalized some forms of dissent. The authorities have sent police officers to raid newsrooms, arrested media executives and convicted news editors.自北京于2020年实施国家安全法并将某些异见行为入刑以来，香港的一些独立媒体面临着严格的审查。当局派警察搜查新闻编辑部，逮捕媒体高管，并将新闻编辑定罪。The authorities have also used subtler ways to try to silence opposing voices of journalists, activists and even bookstore owners, political analysts say. Groups that are critical of the government have faced problems finding private venues for events, inspections of their premises and even inquiries into their pet licenses.政治分析人士表示，当局还使用更隐蔽的方式试图压制记者、活动人士乃至书店经营者的反对声音。批评政府的团体面临活动场地租借困难、场所突检，甚至连宠物饲养许可证都遭到质询。Thomas Kellogg, the executive director of the Georgetown Center for Asian Law, said that administrative harassment can be an effective way to control the remaining outlets that have managed not to cross red lines that could put them at risk for prosecution under national security or sedition laws. Such reviews “serve as a reminder to media outlets that they have to watch what they say, and that the government has ways to hit back at them over reporting it doesn’t like,” he said.乔治敦大学亚洲法律中心执行主任托马斯·凯洛格表示，对于尚存的那些尚未逾越红线，因而不必担心遭到国家安全或煽动叛乱法律检控的媒体而言，行政骚扰是一种行之有效的管控手段。他说，这类审查“意在提醒媒体机构谨言慎行，政府总有办法对其不喜欢的报道实施报复”。Damon Wong, the director and editor in chief of InMedia, said that a tax investigation into the independent news outlet had caused it to use up significant time and resources. Last year he appeared in court and paid a fine of about $1,250 for failing to keep a physical copy of the company registry in its office.《独立媒体》(InMedia)的主编黄俊邦表示，对这家独立新闻机构的税务稽查占用了它的大量时间和资源。去年，他因没有在办公室保留公司注册表的实体副本而出庭，并缴纳了1万港币罚款。Tom Grundy, the founder of the Hong Kong Free Press, an English-language online outlet, also said that it has had to redirect time, resources and money away from covering the news as it faced scrutiny from the tax and other departments.英文网络媒体《香港自由新闻》(Hong Kong Free Press)的创始人汤姆·格伦迪亦证实，税务和其他部门的审查占用了原本用于新闻报道的时间、资源和资金。Last year, the authorities investigated what the outlet described as “false complaints,” including claims that a hot sauce it sold as a fund-raiser had come from an unlicensed food factory and that Mr. Grundy’s pet dog lacked a license and rabies shot. Both cases were closed after he submitted evidence to the contrary, Mr. Grundy said.去年，香港当局针对该媒体发起多项被后者称为“不实控诉”的调查，包括指控其为筹款而售卖的辣椒酱产自一家无证食品厂，以及创办人格伦迪的宠物犬未办理许可证且未接种狂犬疫苗。格伦迪表示，在提交反驳证据后，两起案件均已撤销。This year, Hong Kong’s press freedom ranking fell to 140th out of 180 countries and territories, according to an index compiled by the advocacy group Reporters Without Borders. About 20 independent outlets in Hong Kong have closed since 2020, according to a study published last year by the Georgetown Center of Asian Law.根据倡导组织“无国界记者”发布的年度指数，香港今年在全球180个国家和地区的新闻自由排名跌至第140位。乔治敦大学亚洲法律中心去年发布的研究显示，自2020年以来，香港约有20家独立媒体关闭。A press freedom survey conducted this year by the Foreign Correspondents Club showed that more than half of the respondents were concerned about the risks of arrest or prosecution, and that 65 percent had self-censored in their coverage.香港的外国记者俱乐部今年进行的一项新闻自由调查显示，超过一半的受访者担心被逮捕或起诉的风险，65%的受访者在报道中进行过自我审查。Mr. Grundy said that his outlet has always paid its taxes on time and had cooperated fully with the review. But that approach also came at a cost.格伦迪说，他的媒体机构始终按时纳税，并全力配合稽查工作。但这种做法也是有代价的。“I’m having to act as a one-man compliance department instead of a journalist,” he said. “It’s just not what I expected from the world’s freest economy when I chose to set up a business here a decade ago.”“我不得不放下记者的工作，一个人担负起一个合规部的职责，”他说。“这与我十年前选择在这里创业时，对这个世界上最自由的经济体的期望大相径庭。”Tiffany May是时报驻香港记者，报道香港和更广泛地区的政治、商业和文化议题。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 香港记者协会称多家独立新闻机构及媒体人被查税

美中贸易休战未改善美国经济不确定性

BEN CASSELMAN2025年5月14日The temporary reduction in tariffs that the United States and China announced in Geneva on Monday will lift, at least for now, the de facto trade embargo that had been in place between the two countries for the past month. It will reduce the chances that American shoppers will face empty shelves during the holiday season and perhaps limit the price increases they will have to endure. It sent stock prices soaring around the world.美国和中国周一在日内瓦宣布暂时降低关税，至少目前将解除过去一个月来两国之间实际上的贸易禁运。这将降低美国消费者在假日季节面临货架空无一物的可能性，或许还能限制他们不得不忍受的价格上涨。这使得全球股票价格飙升。But the deal does little to clear the cloud of uncertainty that has hung over the U.S. economy since President Trump took office in January.但是，该协议对于清除自特朗普总统1月就职以来笼罩在美国经济上的不确定性几乎没有帮助。If anything, the latest news serves only to reinforce the degree to which trade policy lies in the hands of one man, who sees his unpredictability as a strategic strength and scoffs at the kind of careful, deliberative process that has characterized policymaking under previous administrations.如果有什么不同的话，那就是最新的消息只会进一步凸显了这样一个现实：美国的贸易政策掌握在特朗普总统一人手中，他将自己的不可预测性视为一种战略优势，并嘲笑以往的政府在谨小慎微的决策过程。In a little over a month, Mr. Trump has imposed steep tariffs on virtually every U.S. trading partner, then rolled them back temporarily. He has raised tariffs on China, then increased them further in response to Chinese retaliation, and now rolled back those tariffs as well — but only partially, and only for 90 days. Those back-and-forth decisions followed an earlier series of reversals, which on at least two occasions included tariffs that were announced and rescinded within a single day.一个多月内，特朗普对几乎所有美国贸易伙伴征收了高额关税，然后又暂时取消。他提高了对中国的关税，然后进一步提高关税以回应中国的报复，现在他又降低了这些关税——但只是部分降低，而且只持续90天。在这些反复的决定之前，他还进行了一系列的逆转，其中至少有两次包括了在一天内宣布并取消的关税。“Many of our trading partners now look at the U.S. and say, ‘Is this now the way trade policy continues in the future?’” said Steven J. Davis, a Stanford economist who has studied the way uncertainty affects the economy. “I think it’s quite clear that other countries around the world are reassessing their view of the United States as a reliable trading partner.”“我们的许多贸易伙伴现在看着美国说，‘未来的贸易政策就是一直这样下去吗？’”研究不确定性如何影响经济的斯坦福大学经济学家史蒂文·戴维斯说。“我认为，很明显，其他国家正在重新审视要不要把美国当做可靠的贸易伙伴。”A measure of economic policy uncertainty developed by Mr. Davis and two co-authors hit a record high this month, even surpassing the levels during the global financial crisis in 2008 and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Research has shown that such bouts of extreme uncertainty are damaging in their own right, discouraging companies from hiring and investing.戴维斯和两位合著者制定的一项衡量经济政策不确定性的指标本月创下历史新高，甚至超过了2008年全球金融危机和2020年新冠病毒大流行期间的水平。研究表明，这种极端不确定性本身就具有破坏性，会阻碍企业招聘和投资。In the short run, the truce announced on Monday could provide some much-needed clarity. Under the agreement, which lasts 90 days, the United States will cut tariffs on goods from China to 30 percent from 145 percent. China will make a similar reduction in the retaliatory duties that it imposed on imports from the United States.从短期来看，周一宣布的休战可能会提供一些急需的明确性。根据这项为期90天的协议，美国将把来自中国的商品关税从145%降至30%。中国将对从美国进口的商品征收的报复性关税进行类似缩减。The new rates are still far above those in place before Mr. Trump took office and will almost certainly result in higher prices for consumers. But the reduction was large enough that it should allow for trade between the two countries — which had all but halted while the prohibitive 145 percent tariffs were in place — to resume to some degree. Many economists expect imports to surge in the coming weeks as companies race to restock while the lower rates remain in effect.新税率仍远高于特朗普上任前的税率，几乎肯定会给消费者带来更高的价格。但这一降幅足够大，足以让两国之间的贸易在某种程度上恢复——在145%的禁止性关税实施期间，两国之间的贸易几乎停止。许多经济学家预计，在未来几周内，随着企业竞相在较低税率生效期间补货，进口将激增。To investors, the agreement also served as a signal that leaders of both countries were looking for a way to step back from the full-blown trade war that had erupted over the past month. Economists had warned that the standoff could lead to “stagflation” — the combination of high inflation and slow growth — as the steep decline in commerce led both to higher prices and reduced demand for workers to drive delivery trucks, pack boxes and stock shelves. That outcome now seems less likely.对投资者来说，该协议还发出了一个信号，表明两国领导人正在寻找一种方式，从过去一个月爆发的全面贸易战中脱身。经济学家曾警告说，这种僵局可能导致“滞涨”——高通胀和低增长的结合——因为贸易的急剧下滑导致价格上涨，也减少了对从事卡车运输、装箱和码货工作的工人的需求。现在看来，出现这种结果的可能性较小。Stock indexes surged on Monday following the announcement and continued to rise on Tuesday. The S&P 500, which had fallen sharply when tariffs were announced, has now turned positive for the year.消息公布后，股指周一大涨，周二继续上扬。标准普尔500指数在关税宣布时曾大幅下跌，现在已实现今年的正增长。洛杉矶的一家户外购物中心。即使降低了对中国的关税，消费者也几乎肯定会遇到价格上涨的问题。“What it does is it signals that there is real, tangible progress,” said Sina Golara, a management professor at Georgia State University who specializes in supply chain issues. “There seems to be strong will and a political push to getting a deal. That’s all positive.”“它的作用是发出了一个信号，表明确实有了切实的进展，”佐治亚州立大学专门研究供应链问题的管理学教授西纳·戈拉拉说。“似乎有达成协议的强烈意愿和政治推动力。这都是积极的。”But the agreement with China — like the framework deal with the Britain that was announced last week and the temporary rollback of tariffs imposed on other trading partners last month — is an executive action taken by Mr. Trump. It is not a legally binding treaty ratified by Congress. As a result, there is nothing to stop Mr. Trump from raising tariffs again at the end of the 90 days, or even before then.但与中国达成的协议——就像上周宣布的与英国达成的框架协议，以及上个月暂时降低对其他贸易伙伴征收的关税一样——是特朗普采取的一项行政行动。它不是国会批准的具有法律约束力的条约。因此，没有什么可以阻止特朗普在90天结束时甚至之前再次提高关税。On Monday, Mr. Trump said that if China doesn’t agree to a trade deal within the 90-day window, tariffs will go back up and be “substantially higher,” although not to 145 percent.周一，特朗普表示，如果中国不在90天的窗口期内同意达成贸易协议，关税将重新上调，而且“大幅提高”，尽管不会达到145%。“If you’re just looking to get your imports in from China, I do think you have at least enough near-term certainty to start shipping as much as possible,” said Alex Jacquez, a former economic adviser to former President Biden who now works at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank. “What I don’t think this does is decrease any long-term uncertainty because we still don’t know what the aim of Trump’s negotiations are with China or with anyone else.”“如果你只是想从中国进口商品，我确实认为你至少有足够的短期确定性开始尽可能多地发货，”前总统拜登的前经济顾问、现供职于进步智库基础合作的亚历克斯·雅克斯说。“我不认为这会减少任何长期的不确定性，因为我们仍然不知道特朗普与中国或其他任何人谈判的目的是什么。”The short-term nature of the deal is likely to limit the benefits, said Gene Seroka, the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. Companies will bring in products they need urgently, he said, but they will be reluctant to make bigger commitments, knowing the tariff rates could change yet again.洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩·塞洛卡说，这笔交易的短期性质可能会限制其效益。他说，企业将拿到它们急需的产品，但它们将不愿做出更大的承诺，因为它们知道，关税税率可能会再次改变。Executives he has spoken to are “hopeful, but very cautious,” Mr. Seroka said. “By no means has anybody said we’re out of the woods.”与塞洛卡交谈过的高管们都“充满希望，但非常谨慎，”他说。“但不等于有谁会觉得我们已经脱离了困境。”For Learning Resources, an educational toy company in Vernon Hills, Ill., the 145 percent tariff rate was effectively an embargo. Rick Woldenberg, the chief executive, quipped at the time that the rate might as well be “100 billion percent.” He immediately paused some shipments, stopped filling open jobs and sued the Trump administration, arguing it had overstepped its authority.对于伊利诺伊州弗农山的教育玩具企业学习资源(Learning Resources)来说，145%的关税实际上是禁运。公司首席执行官里克·沃尔登伯格当时打趣说，不如把税率调到“百分之1000亿”。他立即暂停了一些发货，停止填补空缺职位，并起诉特朗普政府，称其越权。With tariffs now lowered to 30 percent, Mr. Woldenberg said he would probably restart shipment of some of the goods that were stranded in China.随着关税降至30%，沃尔登伯格说，他可能会重启滞留在中国的部分货物的运输。“We’ll probably bring it in because who the hell knows what they’ll do next,” he said. “This is, I suppose, better than the other kinds of chaos we were going through.”“我们可能会把货物先运进来，因为谁知道他们下一步又会干什么，”他说。“我想，大概总比我们之前经历的那些混乱要好一些。”But Mr. Woldenberg isn’t lifting his hiring freeze or making the other investments that have been on hold since tariffs took effect.但沃尔登伯格并没有解除招聘冻结，也没有进行自关税生效以来一直被搁置的其他投资。“We’re clinging to every dollar,” he said. “We’re going to need them because I have a new tax I have to pay.”“我们紧紧攥住每一分钱，”他说。“我们需要这些钱，因为我有一项新税要交。”In surveys, many companies have said they are holding off on making hiring and investing decisions until they see where tariffs end up. A mere 90-day pause is unlikely to move them off the sidelines.在调查中，许多公司表示，在看到关税的最终结果之前，它们将推迟招聘和投资决定。仅仅90天的暂停不太可能让他们放弃观望。“When I’m out talking to business leaders, they don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Austan D. Goolsbee, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, in an interview on Monday. “They can’t make decisions counting on this or any other thing lasting in a permanent way.”“当我去和商界领袖交谈时，他们不知道会发生什么，”芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比周一接受采访时说。“他们不能指望这件事或任何其他事情能永久持续下去，从而做出决策。”Nor can the Fed itself. Officials have warned in recent months that the tariffs are likely to lead to higher prices and slower growth. But the constant changes in trade policy have made it hard for the central bank to chart a clear path forward for interest rates. Instead, policymakers are essentially on hold, waiting to see how the economy responds before making any decisions.美联储本身也不能。近几个月来，官员们警告称，关税可能会导致价格上涨和增长放缓。但贸易政策的不断变化，使得央行很难为利率制定明确的未来路径。相反，政策制定者基本上是按兵不动，等着看经济如何反应，然后再做出任何决定。The deal in Geneva will reinforce that caution, said Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo.富国银行经济学家萨拉·豪斯表示，日内瓦的协议将强化这种谨慎态度。“This is a good example of why they’re in wait-and-see mode,” she said. “This is an indication of why they’re not trying to get out ahead of the impacts of these tariff policies, because they could be walked back at any moment, on any weekend.”“这是一个很好的例子，说明他们为什么处于观望状态，”她说。“这也表明了他们为何不试图赶在这些关税政策产生影响之前采取行动，因为这些政策随时可能在某个周末被收回。”Colby Smith对本文有报道贡献。Ben Casselman是《纽约时报》首席经济记者。他从事经济报道已有近20年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 美中贸易休战未改善美国经济不确定性

中国同意与美国谈判，但仍可能坚持强硬立场

艾莎2025年5月8日 Eric Lee/The New York Times; Florence Lo/ReutersBy agreeing to meet with the Trump administration to discuss trade, China is seeking to cast itself as the responsible one in a bruising superpower competition that has roiled the global financial system and set off fears of a recession.通过同意与特朗普政府会面讨论贸易问题，中国正寻求在一场激烈的超级大国竞争中把自己塑造成负责任的一方。这场竞争扰乱了全球金融体系，引发对经济衰退的担忧。For weeks, China had publicly said that it would not engage in trade talks with the United States under duress, refusing to “kneel down” and compromise with a “bully.” It insisted that Washington should first drop its eye-watering tariffs on China as a condition for negotiations.几周以来，中国一直公开表示不会在胁迫下与美国进行贸易谈判，“不跪，”拒绝向“霸凌”低头。该国坚称谈判的条件是华盛顿首先放弃对中国征收的令人瞠目的关税。On Wednesday, Beijing indicated it would come to the table after all, saying that its top trade official, He Lifeng, would meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Switzerland this week. Even so, it maintained a tough stance, warning Washington against using the talks as “a smoke screen to continue coercion and extortion.”本周三，北京表示它终究会坐到谈判桌前，称其最高贸易官员何立峰将于本周在瑞士与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特会面。即便如此，中国仍坚持强硬立场，警告华盛顿不要“企图以谈为幌子，继续搞胁迫讹诈”。The Chinese government said it had come to this decision “based on a full consideration of global expectations, China’s interests and the calls of American industry and consumers,” suggesting that it was doing so largely for the greater good.中国政府表示，它是在“充分考虑全球期待、中方利益、美国业界和消费者呼吁的基础上”做出这一决定的，并表示它这样做在很大程度上是为了更大的利益。“China is trying to frame itself as the responsible party, but it’s still a pretty hard-line tone: You better behave yourself in these talks,” said Yun Sun, a China analyst at the Stimson Center.史汀生中心中国问题分析师孙韵说：“中国正试图把自己塑造成负责任的一方，但它的语气仍然相当强硬：你最好在这些谈判中表现好一点。”But the move is still a softening of China’s stance, at a time when economic data has shown that the trade brinkmanship was taking a toll on both countries’ economies.但在经济数据显示贸易边缘政策正对两国经济造成损害之际，此举仍是中国立场的一种软化。The Trump administration’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods imported to the United States by 145 percent, and China’s response in hiking its own tariffs on American goods to 125 percent, has effectively frozen all trade between the two countries in recent weeks.最近几周，特朗普政府决定将中国输美商品的关税提高145%，而中国的回应是将对美国商品的关税提高到125%，实际上等于冻结了两国之间的所有贸易。Chinese factories were hit with the steepest slowdown in activity in more than a year, and shipments of Chinese goods to the United States have plunged, triggering a wave of warnings from retailers about shortages. The American economy shrank in the first three months of the year, and companies slashed growth forecasts.中国工厂的生产活动出现了一年多来最严重的放缓，中国对美国的商品出货量大幅下降，促使美国零售商纷纷发出货物短缺的警告。美国经济在今年前三个月出现萎缩，企业纷纷下调增长预期。财政部长贝森特上个月与特朗普总统乘坐空军一号。贝森特表示，与中国的谈判更有可能是为了缓和贸易紧张局势，而不是达成协议。Both the United States and China seem interested in reducing the tariffs, but neither side has wanted to make the initial concession. It also remains unclear if, or how quickly, the two countries might strike any kind of deal, or what its specifics could be.美国和中国似乎都有意降低关税，但都不愿做出最初的让步。目前还不清楚两国是否会达成某种协议，或者以多快的速度达成协议，也不清楚协议的具体内容是什么。In an interview with Fox News on Tuesday night, Mr. Bessent said he expected the meeting with Chinese officials in Switzerland to focus on de-escalation rather than any major deal.贝森特周二晚间接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，他预计与中国官员在瑞士的会晤将侧重于缓和紧张局势，而不是达成任何重大协议。“We’ve got to de-escalate before we can move forward,” Mr. Bessent said.“我们必须首先缓和局势，然后才能向前推进，”贝森特说。For its part, China wants to show that it will be coming to the negotiations from a position of strength, even though the U.S. had not canceled tariffs first as Beijing had demanded. In recent days it has repeatedly said that U.S. officials had reached out for talks and that it was considering the request.中国方面希望表明，尽管美国没有像北京要求的那样首先取消关税，但中国将以强势的姿态参加谈判。最近几天，中国一再表示，是美国官员主动提出谈判，中国正在考虑这一要求。“The Chinese are trying to avoid the image that the Chinese were eager to talk,” Ms. Sun said.“中方努力避免给人留下中国急于谈判的印象，”孙韵说。Chinese officials will likely be treating the trade talks as a fact-finding mission.中国官员可能会将这次贸易谈判视为一项探明真相的任务。“The Chinese want to find out what Donald Trump is really up to, and you can only get this by engaging in direct talks,” said Wang Xiangwei, an associate professor of journalism at Hong Kong Baptist University.香港浸会大学新闻学副教授王向伟说，“中国人想知道唐纳德·特朗普到底想干什么，这一点只有通过直接对话才能实现。”Until now, for instance, it has not been entirely clear to Beijing which Trump officials were in charge of future negotiations with China, Mr. Wang said.例如，到目前为止，北京还不完全清楚特朗普的哪些官员将负责未来与中国的谈判，王向伟说。Part of the challenge in dealing with the Trump administration on trade is that the direction of policy seems to vary depending on who is speaking. Peter Navarro, a senior White House trade adviser and the architect of many of Mr. Trump’s trade plans, has defended the tariffs as necessary, while Mr. Bessent has said the U.S. is willing to negotiate with countries.在贸易问题上与特朗普政府打交道，部分挑战在于，政策方向似乎随着发言者的不同而变化。白宫高级贸易顾问、特朗普的许多贸易计划的设计师彼得·纳瓦罗为关税辩护，称其为必要的，而贝森特则表示，美国愿意与各国谈判。洛杉矶的港口。Even as the Trump administration appeared more willing to find an off-ramp to the trade standoff, there were still some questions about what tone the administration would strike during the talks, which Mr. Bessent said on Fox News would be held on Saturday and Sunday.尽管特朗普政府似乎更愿意为解决贸易僵局找到出口，但关于政府在会谈中将采取何种基调，仍存在一些疑问。贝森特在福克斯新闻上表示，会谈将于周六和周日举行。China said Mr. He was going to be in Geneva from Friday to Monday for meetings with Swiss leaders and that while he was there he would also meet Mr. Bessent. The Trump administration said Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, would also attend the meetings, though China did not mention Mr. Greer in its own statements about the talks.中国表示，何立峰将于周五至周一在日内瓦与瑞士领导人会晤，在此期间，他将会见贝森特。特朗普政府表示，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔也将出席会议，不过中国在有关会谈的声明中没有提到格里尔。Finding out what Mr. Trump wants from China and what he is willing to concede in negotiations would be useful to Beijing as it figures out its response. China has also been trying to persuade other countries not to cave to pressure from the Trump administration’s efforts to isolate China by imposing tariffs of their own on Chinese products, or by decoupling from Chinese manufacturing.弄清楚特朗普想从中国那里得到什么，以及他愿意在谈判中做出什么让步，将对北京在考虑对策时有所帮助。特朗普政府试图向其他国家施压，要求它们对中国产品征收关税或与中国制造业脱钩，从而孤立中国，中国则一直在努力说服这些国家不要屈从这样的压力。For Beijing, artfully lowering the temperature without looking weak in the face of Mr. Trump’s tariffs could help its own efforts to revitalize its economy. Chinese officials have been under pressure at home from the fallout of both a multiyear property crisis that has wiped out the savings of many families, along with broader trade tensions with countries other than the United States.对北京来说，面对特朗普的关税，既巧妙地降温，同时又不显得软弱，可能有助于中国振兴经济的努力。中国官员在国内一直承受着压力，一方面是多年来的房地产危机导致许多家庭的积蓄蒸发，另一方面是与美国以外国家的贸易紧张局势。China’s central bank and its financial regulators on Wednesday took their biggest policy steps yet to shield the economy from the trade war, moving to shore up the economy with a series of steps to make it easier for banks to lend money and get people spending.中国央行及其金融监管机构周三采取了迄今为止最大的政策措施，以保护经济免受贸易战的影响，它采取一揽子措施，使银行更容易放贷，促进消费，从而提振经济。The Trump administration’s “tariff policies have dealt a severe blow to the international economic and trade order, triggered significant turbulence in international financial markets, and placed considerable pressure on the domestic capital market,” said Wu Qing, China’s stock regulator, at a press briefing with top officials.中国证监会主席吴青在与高层官员举行的新闻发布会上表示，特朗普政府的“关税政策严重冲击国际经贸秩序，国际金融市场剧烈动荡，也给国内资本市场带来很大压力”。The Chinese side also comes to the talks emboldened by the knowledge that President Trump has blinked in the face of a sharp sell-off in U.S. government bond markets, and broader financial market turbulence. The midterm elections in the United States could exert some pressure on President Trump to lower or cut tariffs if consumer prices rise as a result of a shortage of goods.中方知道，面对美国政府债券市场的大幅抛售和更广泛的金融市场动荡，特朗普总统已经退缩，这也让中方在会谈中更有底气。如果消费者价格因商品短缺而上涨，美国中期选举可能会给特朗普总统造成一定压力，要求他降低或削减关税。The Chinese “still have the upper hand, but their economy is slowing,” said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington research group. “If they totally stonewall the Trump administration, they could end up looking complicit in bringing the global economy to a halt.”中国“仍然占上风，但他们的经济正在放缓”，华盛顿研究机构战略与国际研究中心的高级顾问斯科特·肯尼迪说。“如果他们拒绝与特朗普政府接触，最终可能会被视为导致全球经济停滞的同谋。”Zixu Wang对本文有报道贡献。艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。  https://feedx.site

Source: 中国同意与美国谈判，但仍可能坚持强硬立场

特朗普带来的经济混乱为何难以逆转

PATRICIA COHEN2025年4月29日菲律宾的一家工厂。 Jes Aznar for The New York TimesPresident Trump has made clear his intent to smash the reigning global economic order. And in 100 days, he has made remarkable progress in accomplishing that goal.特朗普总统明确表示，他有意打破现有的全球经济秩序。在执政百日里，他在实现这一目标方面取得了显著进展。Mr. Trump has provoked a trade war, scrapped treaties and suggested that Washington might not defend Europe. He is also dismantling the governmental infrastructure that has provided the know-how and experience.特朗普挑起了一场贸易战，废除了一些条约，并暗示华盛顿可能不会保卫欧洲。他同时还在逐步瓦解那些提供专业知识和经验储备的政府机构。The changes have been deep. But the world is still churning. Midterm elections in two years could erode the Republican majority in Congress. And Mr. Trump’s reign is constitutionally mandated to end in four years. Could the next president come in and undo what the Trump administration has done?这些变化的影响是深远的。但世界仍在动荡。两年后的中期选举可能会削弱共和党在国会的多数地位。宪法规定，特朗普的任期将在四年后结束。下一任总统会上台推翻特朗普政府的所作所为吗？As Cardinal Michael Czerny, a close aide to Pope Francis, said of the Catholic Church: “There is nothing that we have done over 2,000 years that couldn’t be rolled back.”正如教宗方济各的亲密助手、枢机主教迈克尔·切尔尼在谈到天主教会时说的那样：“2000多年来，我们所做的一切没有一件事是无法逆转的。”The same could be said of global geopolitics. Yet even at this early stage, historians and political scientists agree that on some crucial counts, the changes wrought by Mr. Trump may be hard to reverse.全球地缘政治也是如此。然而，即便在目前这个早期阶段，历史学家和政治学家也一致认为，在一些关键问题上，特朗普带来的变化可能很难逆转。Like the erosion of trust in the United States, a resource that took generations to build.比如对美国信任的侵蚀，这种资源是经过了几代人的努力才得以建立起来的。“The MAGA base and JD Vance will still be around long after Trump’s gone,” said Ian Goldin, professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford. No matter who occupies the White House next, the conditions that propelled the “Make America Great Again” movement — widening inequality and economic insecurity — remain. For the rest of the world, there is still a worry, he said, that there could be “another Trump in the future.”牛津大学全球化与发展教授伊恩·戈尔丁表示：“在特朗普下台后，‘让美国恢复伟大荣光’票仓和JD·万斯仍将存在很长时间。”无论下一个入主白宫的是谁，推动“让美国恢复伟大荣光”运动的条件——不断扩大的不平等和经济不安全——依然存在。他说，对于世界其他地区来说，人们仍然担心“未来可能会出现另一个特朗普”。As a result, allies are working to strike trade partnerships and build security alliances that exclude the United States. The European Union and South American countries recently created one of the world’s largest trade zones.因此，美国的盟友们正在努力达成贸易伙伴关系，建立将美国排除在外的安全联盟。欧盟和南美国家最近建立了世界上最大的贸易区之一。The Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, recently proposed building new transportation networks to ease access to global markets outside the United States. Canada is also negotiating to join Europe’s military buildup to reduce its reliance on the United States, while Britain and the European Union are working to finalize a defense pact.加拿大总理马克·卡尼最近提议，建立新的交通网络，方便进入美国以外的全球市场。加拿大也在就加入欧洲的军事建设进行谈判，以减少对美国的依赖，而英国和欧盟正在努力敲定一项防务协议。广州的一家制衣厂。习近平试图将中国定位为自由贸易的倡导者和全球领导者。“The world moves on,” Mr. Goldin said. Supply chains will be rearranged, new partnerships will be struck, and foreign students, researchers and tech talent will find other places to migrate. “The U.S. is not going to quickly restore its economic position,” he said.“世界在前进，”戈尔丁说。供应链将被重新安排，新的合作伙伴关系将达成，外国学生、研究人员和技术人才将找到其他地方移民。“美国不会很快恢复经济地位，”他说。“And it’s not just the United States that is so different now,” he added. Mr. Trump is emboldening autocratic leaders around the world, which further chips away at the rules-based system.“现在不只是美国发生了这么大的变化，”他还说。特朗普正在给世界各地的专制领导人壮胆，这进一步削弱了基于规则的体系。Second, Mr. Trump’s disdain for international institutions only strengthens the influence of China, the principal target of his attempts to use economic pressure.其次，特朗普对国际机构的蔑视只会增强中国的影响力，而中国正是他试图通过经济压力加以打击的主要目标。The administration is creating “immense moments of opportunity for Xi Jinping and China,” said Orville Schell, director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York.纽约亚洲协会美中关系中心主任夏伟(Orville Schell)说，本届政府正在“为习近平和中国创造巨大的机会”。China’s top leader, Mr. Xi, is seeking to exploit Mr. Trump’s protectionist turn and chaotic policy reversals to better position Beijing as the defender of free trade and the new leader of the global trading system.中国最高领导人习近平正在寻求利用特朗普的保护主义转向和混乱的政策逆转，以便更好地将北京定位为自由贸易的捍卫者和全球贸易体系的新领导者。Mr. Xi’s argument particularly resonates among many emerging economies in Latin America, Asia and Africa. China looks “steady and stable and a picture of equanimity compared to the United States,” said Jonathan Czin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution’s China Center and a former senior China analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency.习近平的观点尤其在拉美、亚洲和非洲的许多新兴经济体中引起共鸣。布鲁金斯学会中国中心研究员、美国中央情报局前高级中国分析师席恩(Jonathan Czin)说：“与美国相比，（中国）看起来从容稳健，呈现一派祥和的画面。”Africa is a prime example. Mr. Trump has gutted the U.S. Agency for International Development, which delivered food and health care to the world’s poorest. And the reorganization plan for the State Department has proposed eliminating nearly all diplomatic missions across the continent.非洲就是一个典型的例子。美国国际开发署曾向世界上最贫穷的人提供食品和医疗服务，特朗普却对该机构大加打击。国务院的重组计划提议取消几乎所有在非洲大陆的外交使团。By comparison, China has already invested deeply in Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and its push to control more of the continent’s critical minerals. “It creates a vacuum that allows China to consolidate that position and control over those mining rights,” Mr. Czin said.相比之下，作为“一带一路”倡议的一部分，中国在非洲进行了大量投资，并努力控制非洲大陆更多的关键矿产。“这造成了一个真空，使中国能够巩固自己的地位，并且控制采矿权，”席恩说。Mr. Trump’s hostility to allies could also undercut government efforts in recent years to keep advanced technology out of China’s hands. Those previously close relations were crucial in persuading the Netherlands and Japan to halt exports of advanced semiconductor equipment to China.特朗普对盟友的敌意也可能削弱政府近年来不让先进技术落入中国手中的努力。在说服荷兰和日本停止向中国出口先进半导体设备方面，此前美国与它们之间密切的关系发挥了关键作用。Antony Hopkins, a history professor at Cambridge University, added that Mr. Trump was forgetting the important role China played as an international investor and buyer of U.S. debt. If China’s access to America’s large consumer market is severely curtailed, “you are courting the possibility of damaging China’s ability to invest in U.S. Treasury bonds, and if you do that, you’re shooting yourself in the foot.”剑桥大学历史学教授安东尼·霍普金斯补充说，特朗普忘记了中国作为国际投资者和美国债务买家所发挥的重要作用。如果中国进入美国庞大的消费市场受到严重限制，“你就有可能损害中国投资美国国债的能力，如果你这样做，你就是搬起石头砸自己的脚。”Another region caught between the United States and China is Southeast Asia. But as Mr. Trump threatened, and then paused until early July, potentially ruinous tariffs on the export-oriented economies of countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia, China gained an opportunity to strengthen ties.另一个夹在美中之间的地区是东南亚。但是，随着特朗普威胁要对越南、孟加拉国和印度尼西亚等出口导向型经济体征收可能具有破坏性的关税，而后又将这一举措推迟到7月初，中国获得了加强与这些国家关系的机会。柬埔寨金边的一家货币兑换和珠宝店。美国关税带来的不确定性给了北京一个加强与东南亚联系的机会。Finally, the evisceration of the federal government’s research and data collection capabilities risks undermining America’s scientific excellence and competitive edge. According to the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, the federal government finances roughly 40 percent of the long-term basic research that undergirds the country’s technological and scientific breakthroughs.最后，联邦政府研究和数据收集能力的削弱，可能会损害美国在科学领域的卓越地位和竞争优势。根据国家科学与工程统计中心的数据，联邦政府资助了大约40%的长期基础研究，这些研究支撑着美国的科技突破。Sometimes a signature event like the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 serves as an endpoint to an era. But it is not necessarily always clear in real time if stress on a system is so extreme that it won’t be able to snap back.有时，像1989年柏林墙倒塌这样的标志性事件是一个时代的终点。但是，一个系统所承受的压力是否已经到了无法挽回的地步，这一点并不一定总能实时显现出来。Many people thought the “Nixon shock” represented such a break, David Ekbladh, a history professor at Tufts University, said. In 1971 President Richard M. Nixon terminated the system of fixed exchange rates and severed the value of the U.S. dollar from gold.塔夫茨大学历史学教授戴维·埃克布拉德说，许多人认为“尼克松冲击”就代表了这样一种突破。1971年，尼克松总统终止了固定汇率制度，并切断了美元与黄金的联系。The author William Greider called it the “precise date on which America’s singular dominance” of the global economy ended. Chaos enveloped global markets, and America’s allies worried that the president’s unilateral decision undermined the postwar cooperative system. Still, the larger economic order held.作家威廉·格雷德称这是美国在全球经济中“独一无二的主导地位”宣告终结的“确切日期”。全球市场陷入混乱，美国的盟友担心总统的单边决定破坏了战后的合作体系。尽管如此，更大的经济秩序仍然得以维持。“The game changed, but it wasn’t a revolution,” Mr. Ekbladh said. Negotiations to open markets continued, America’s alliances remained intact and the Group of 10 negotiated a new arrangement. Respect internationally for the rule of law prevailed, and the United States was still universally seen as the leader of the free world.“游戏变了，但那不是革命，”埃克布拉德说。开放市场的谈判仍在继续，美国的同盟关系保持不变，10国集团通过谈判达成了一项新的安排。国际社会普遍尊重法治，美国仍被普遍视为自由世界的领袖。The question for the United States now is how deep support is for the system that was, Mr. Ekbladh said. These currents of deep discontent with the global economy have been bubbling up for a long time, and many people voted for Mr. Trump because of his promise to upend the system. “Do the American people want this to go away?”埃克布拉德说，美国现在面临的问题是，民众对过去的体制的支持究竟有多深。对全球经济的强烈不满情绪已经酝酿了很长时间，许多人投票给特朗普是因为他承诺要颠覆现行制度。“美国人民希望这一切消失吗？”Patricia Cohen常驻伦敦，撰写与全球经济有关的新闻。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 特朗普带来的经济混乱为何难以逆转